MyTeam Mobile Discussion

[eVizions]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

False, this gives the impression that it is independent probability when it is clearly dependent. Every board clear's probability goes up as you get closer to the reset. My theory is that your probability is always 1/(reset - boards cleared). Therefore your chance on the first pick is 1/reset, then 1/reset - 1, and eventually it approaches 1 as you approach the reset number.

This would be really easy to figure out if everyone posted their board reset #'s. Could just assemble a distribution of all the reset boards and determine everything we need to know.

I agree that it's not a constant fixed percentage, but I don't think it adjusts. Using Star as an example, some people have reported getting to like 450 boards before getting their reset (maybe more). Let's just say that 450 is the number, since we know it can't be less than that. When you reach 300, your formula states that your odds are 1/(450 - 300), or 0.667%. Reaching 400 would now give you a 2% probability. A variation of that formula that multiplies the odds makes it more feasible, but it doesn't account for the cluster of resets right around the 300-320 mark. Also, adjusting the odds based on the board count isn't as simple as a static adjustment. Definitely possible, though.

[Illmatic1909]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

pretty sure NWGD said that the number of board clears dont change the drop rate until you hit the guaranteed reset number. I used to think of it this way too until he claimed it

That may be what he claims, but either he's making a mistake or we're misunderstanding. The numbers don't back that. If that were truly the case, we would see as many people clearing on board 1 as there are clearing on board 280, and there would be one number (the reset) that had way more frequency. The drop rate clearly changes at some point, and it drastically changes as you approach the reset number. The distribution is clearly left skewed, not uniform.

[Illmatic1909]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

I agree that it's not a constant fixed percentage, but I don't think it adjusts.

I think I hear what you're saying, but this statement contradicts itself. My theory WOULD explain that cluster, because the cluster should occur around the average reset board, which is probably in that region. While the probability goes up as your approach the reset, the chance of it getting to that point goes down. For example, the chance of having it take all the way to 450 is extremely small, due to the 449 draws of increasing percentage before it. So the distribution is left skewed with a center around 300.

[glover20064]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

That may be what he claims, but either he's making a mistake or we're misunderstanding. The numbers don't back that. If that were truly the case, we would see as many people clearing on board 1 as there are clearing on board 280, and there would be one number (the reset) that had way more frequency. The drop rate clearly changes at some point, and it drastically changes as you approach the reset number. The distribution is clearly left skewed, not uniform.

Our sample size is just to small to claim one theory over another. Hopefully more people record their resets and we can come to some conclusion later

IGN:Glover20064
MVP:Pro star Dr J
Tier:Star

[JPJames]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Always worth a screenshot when you get Kobe,

Don't need him but finally got his Dupe!

[Illmatic1909]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

You can't say it's false, both theories is possible and makes sense.

I actually can. The data doesn't back your theory. If your theory were true the probability of drafting on any given board would increase slightly until you reached the reset board, where it would max out. You are thinking cumulatively, which I understand, but in your theory the chance of drafting on any given board 'n' would increase until you hit the reset #, where it would peak.

The numbers show that the probability of drafting on any given board 'n' increases until around the 280-320 range (where it peaks), and then we see less and less frequency as we approach the reset number. The chance of making it to the actual reset is extremely small, but in your theory it would happen quite frequently.

[Rjrayy]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Wow just drafted my second hot streak, did they up the drop rates for them?

[StrikerAI]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

4th dupe PG lol




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[glover20064]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

I actually can. The data doesn't back your theory. If your theory were true the probability of drafting on any given board would increase slightly until you reached the reset board, where it would max out. You are thinking cumulatively, which I understand, but in your theory the chance of drafting on any given board 'n' would increase until you hit the reset #, where it would peak.

The numbers show that the probability of drafting on any given board 'n' increases until around the 280-320 range (where it peaks), and then we see less and less frequency as we approach the reset number. The chance of making it to the actual reset is extremely small, but in your theory it would happen quite frequently.

I think we misunderstand each other or that I don't explain it very well.
I'm saying it's a fixed % to get a certain tier of cards, and I do believe numbers support that , problem is we are only about 30-40 people accumulating stats.

IGN:Glover20064
MVP:Pro star Dr J
Tier:Star

[Illmatic1909]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Wow just drafted my second hot streak, did they up the drop rates for them?

If you count the fact that they didn't exist as a draft pick prior to this RC, then yes they upped them.

[apos1914]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

2nd Leg while waiting for my Star reset (144 boards in Star+). Funny thing is those 144 boards, i drafted just 4 URs and 1 Epic, so this 2nd Leg seems kind of odd.

[glover20064]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

2nd Leg while waiting for my Star reset (144 boards in Star+)

Your luck has turned a bit

IGN:Glover20064
MVP:Pro star Dr J
Tier:Star

[yiy1156]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Finally found a working LU in star... Just gonna get to 290 then move up get the reset drop down again

[apos1914]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

Your luck has turned a bit

IGN:Glover20064
MVP:Pro star Dr J
Tier:Star

Well it's a bit too late.... I already have 2 Pro Leg SGs, 1 Pro Star SF and RC Lebron SF.... so Kawhi is a bit obsolete... Still a great draft though, i am not complaining.

edit: Wrong, i dont have a Pro Star SF.... He is a PF/C lol....

[JPJames]

Re: MyTeam Mobile Discussion

WTF CD