Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

[Chrisksaint]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

For some reason NBA is the only sports that I'm comfortable with advanced stats being used

[Yeah...THAT Guy]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

I definitely use both, but I can't watch every single player the amount of the time that I feel would be necessary to make judgments based mainly on the eye. I'd kill to be able to use the video analysis of Synergy Sports and stuff like that, but alas, I have to rely on their stats/hoopdata/etc. and the amount of action that I can actually watch.

My argument against using the eye as your main criteria is that it's hard to really take what you see and figure out how good they're really doing. You watch Kobe, and you see that his overall skills as a basketball player are insane, you see him make a ton of shots, and you kind of just forget that he's missing a ton of shots and is getting significantly worse as a shooter. Yeah, he dominates the game a lot of times when he plays, but a lot of times, you look at the stats afterwards and you're like "Wow...he missed a ton while his teammates were all knocking down the few shots they got."

It's hard to just watch a guy and really gather how well he's shooting over a long period of time. You watch Steve Nash play nowadays and he doesn't shoot all that much so you think he's not really much of a scorer anymore, but if you break down his numbers, he's one of the highest percentage shooters from every spot on the floor.

[iLLWiLL9105]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

I use about 55-45 advantage eyes. Stats can't be used alwways because players can put up great stats on bad teams. Example Chris Bosh stats wise average 10+ rebounds for Toronto next to Bargaini. In Miami his numbers dropped drastically playing with Lebron Haslem and Wade. Eye test works more for figuring the kind of teamate a guy is. But stats give it concrete backing.

[8and9]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

Good thread Pack.

I tend to judge by the eye personally. I usually don't involve myself with stat talk, doesn't take long to look stuff up on ESPN.com and pretend you know what you're talking about. For instance, Kobe vs MJ arguments by youngins that barely/never even watched MJ play in the 90's.

[Hassan Darkside]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

I'm probably 70-30 eyes. I've mainly been an eye person because I never felt like stats tell the whole story. Works both ways. But there's a lot of things stats can't or don't measure. Stats don't tell "why" very well. Stats can tell me that Carmelo Anthony's a crappy defender, but they don't tell me it's because he loses sight of his man on defense, doesn't recognize the strengths of the player he's guarding, or doesn't exert a lot of effort there. Stats can tell me Javale McGee is a pretty good center with 16-11-3 per 36 min stat line, but they don't tell me why he's only playing 25 mpg.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

You could look at FPG(Fouls Per Game)for that particular player if you want to know why a player only plays a x amount of minutes.

And if you use stats, which specific stat(s)do you use to come to your conclusion about a particular player?

[RedSceptile]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

Carmelo Anthony is one of the main arguments for stats. You look at just his statline you're like "Wow what a great player!" you look at advanced statistics and then you realize "Wow he's really not that good!"

Just watching Melo's game for example he's obviously a scorer but then he contributes very little anywhere else like at all. It's one of the reasons why I started using advanced statistics more. There's nothing to excuse certain players who are basically living on reputation or as I like to call it "the eye bias".

[Dice]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

First hand scouting is great way to evaluate a player. However, just like with relying on stats, you can still over-value and under-value a player. Many factors go into play with any player and how he performs. There are some players who will perform at a high level no matter what system, coach and team he's playing for. But those players are very few. The rest of the players in the league becomes enigmas and your not sure what your getting if put into certain situations. If you would have scouted Ben Wallace in 1996 when he was a free agent pick up for the Bullets, you would have thought by looking at him he was gonna be in the league no longer than 2 years. But if someone had not told him to stop playing SG and go in the paint and bang with the big boys, he would have never been a 4-time defensive player of the year.

I know we all think we know it all but we still make mistakes. Heck, professional scouts get it wrong with first hand scouting.

We all know the story about stats. Certain stats can only tell the truth if validated by other stats and certain scenarios. But if there is probably one stat that would be close to letting me know a players value is probably Win Shares.

With that being said, I think it's 50-50. A balance needs to be there because the eye and stats are subject to mistakes.

[ojandpizza]

I use about 55-45 advantage eyes. Stats can't be used alwways because players can put up great stats on bad teams. Example Chris Bosh stats wise average 10+ rebounds for Toronto next to Bargaini. In Miami his numbers dropped drastically playing with Lebron Haslem and Wade. Eye test works more for figuring the kind of teamate a guy is. But stats give it concrete backing.

But if you actually use eyes like you stated you do, you would realize that Bosh's rebound numbers are down due to the Heats style of play and not just because they were boosted by playing with a weak rebounding center in TOR..

[ojandpizza]

I use about 55-45 advantage eyes. Stats can't be used alwways because players can put up great stats on bad teams. Example Chris Bosh stats wise average 10+ rebounds for Toronto next to Bargaini. In Miami his numbers dropped drastically playing with Lebron Haslem and Wade. Eye test works more for figuring the kind of teamate a guy is. But stats give it concrete backing.

Plus the fact that you are even talking about rebounding numbers for one team compared to his numbers on another team clearly show that you are looking at stats to evaluate lol

[Hassan Darkside]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

You could look at FPG(Fouls Per Game)for that particular player if you want to know why a player only plays a x amount of minutes.

FPG and MPG aren't necessarily directly correlated.

[NINJAK2]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

95% eyes 5% stats
Mostly everyone arrives at their conclusion based on their own eyes(opinion). The stats can then be used to support their opinion or if the stats aren't in their favor they can be ignored (Due to low 5% importance)

[Hassan Darkside]

I'll also add there aren't any stats that measure coaching aptitude, so watching teams play is pretty much the only way of seeing how coaching influences teams.

Sent from my GSIII

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

FPG and MPG aren't necessarily directly correlated.

Well yeah if a player is battling an injury or just coming back from a serious injury, then that will also play a role in that player's minutes. Otherwise, I'd say that's the best way to see why a player is only playing a certain amount of minutes unless you're going to watch said player every single second/moment he's out there, which most people won't do.

For those that use 70% or higher eyes, which stats do you use because they're(Eyes)are only going to tell you so much.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: Eyes or Stats: How Do You Determine How Good A Player Is?

95% eyes 5% stats
Mostly everyone arrives at their conclusion based on their own eyes(opinion). The stats can then be used to support their opinion or if the stats aren't in their favor they can be ignored (Due to low 5% importance)

"Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they also don't lie."