The Grantland NBA Second Trimester Report
By Vonny Lee and Winslow Fisher on February 12, 2016
Vonny: My God, it’s already the halfway point of the season! Winslow, we get to do ANOTHER one of these. Are you excited?
Winslow: I’m happy Carmelo’s gone and my doctor says my stomach ulcer has shown improvement since the trade. Otherwise, I’m not sure what ‘excitement’ is.
V: All right, seeing as how you seem to be in a bit of a depression, this will have to cheer you up. To the standings!
The Raw Data:
NBA Standings - Updated: Feb 12, 2016 | |||||
ATLANTIC | W | L | GB | DIV | CONF |
Nets | 25 | 27 | -- | 1-9 | 12-21 |
76ers | 25 | 28 | 0.5 | 7-5 | 19-15 |
Celtics | 22 | 28 | 2.0 | 4-6 | 13-17 |
Raptors | 21 | 30 | 3.5 | 9-3 | 16-12 |
Knicks | 18 | 35 | 7.5 | 6-4 | 13-15 |
CENTRAL | W | L | GB | DIV | CONF |
Pacers | 32 | 19 | -- | 8-7 | 21-13 |
Cavaliers | 29 | 24 | 4.0 | 8-4 | 18-13 |
Bulls | 24 | 28 | 8.5 | 7-4 | 12-21 |
Bucks | 24 | 29 | 9.0 | 2-7 | 16-16 |
Pistons | 19 | 35 | 14.5 | 4-7 | 14-20 |
SOUTHEAST | W | L | GB | DIV | CONF |
Heat | 34 | 18 | -- | 7-3 | 21-8 |
Bobcats | 30 | 21 | 3.5 | 7-6 | 19-12 |
Wizards | 29 | 22 | 4.5 | 5-7 | 18-13 |
Hawks | 20 | 32 | 14.0 | 5-4 | 14-19 |
Magic | 16 | 34 | 17.0 | 2-6 | 7-18 |
NORTHWEST | W | L | GB | DIV | CONF |
Nuggets | 33 | 20 | -- | 4-4 | 22-12 |
Jazz | 33 | 21 | 1.0 | 5-4 | 17-15 |
Thunder | 30 | 20 | 1.5 | 3-7 | 17-13 |
Timberwolves | 31 | 23 | 2.5 | 7-3 | 21-12 |
Trail Blazers | 29 | 24 | 4.0 | 4-5 | 18-17 |
PACIFIC | W | L | GB | DIV | CONF |
Lakers | 42 | 14 | -- | 9-3 | 27-8 |
Warriors | 31 | 23 | 10.0 | 4-4 | 14-17 |
Kings | 26 | 26 | 14.0 | 6-4 | 14-18 |
Suns | 21 | 33 | 20.0 | 4-6 | 14-19 |
Clippers | 19 | 34 | 21.5 | 2-8 | 7-24 |
SOUTHWEST | W | L | GB | DIV | CONF |
Hornets | 32 | 19 | -- | 6-3 | 19-13 |
Spurs | 28 | 24 | 4.5 | 4-4 | 15-18 |
Rockets | 25 | 30 | 9.0 | 5-6 | 14-18 |
Grizzlies | 22 | 32 | 11.5 | 7-6 | 12-18 |
Mavericks | 18 | 35 | 15.0 | 4-7 | 12-21 |
The Atlantic Division
V: Well, look at that! The Nets, the Nets of all teams, are actually atop the division … how the hell did that happen?
W: It’s called Dwight Howard. Since the trade the Nets are a winning basketball team and, by the time the playoffs roll around, may actually have a positive win/loss record. Further, look at the effect Dwight is having n Deron Williams, who’s playing like his younger self from the Jazz days. Billy King finally got his man and his team is showing up.
V: But will they keep showing up? Look, the 76ers are there and they’ve lost Jrue Holiday for the next few weeks and have lost a number of games since his injury. They have Delonte West -- WEST -- starting at point. They can still make this a race, right?
W: Possibly, if Andrew Bynum decides to take the lead. He’s always played second fiddle to Holiday and now, with him out, it’s up to Bynum to step up and make the amount of money he’s being paid seem worth it. I expect the 76ers to miss the playoffs and this team to be heavily retooled.
V: Could the same fate await the Celtics? Rondo is having a career year but Andrew Wiggins seems to be the lesser of the Parker/Wiggins duo (more on that later). Is Wiggins development being held back by Rondo, who’s clearly Alpha Dog on this team?
W: Likely. Danny Ainge smartly signed Rondo to a contract extension this offseason and now has all the leverage. Rondo can be traded just about anywhere and now with Wiggins (and the team) struggling, he’s going to be made the scapegoat. Doc Rivers could be gone as well.
V: Would they really get rid of Doc? Not Doc, say it ain’t so Winslow!
W: Yes, Doc. Rivers has coached a loser the last three years. Maybe his fire is gone or maybe his time in Boston is up, but whatever the case he’s going to need to find better pastures this offseason in all likelihood.
V: Canada, maybe? Lionel Hollins surely isn’t gone after one year but absolutely something needs to be changed there. The team is struggling and the struggles are at the point, where Kyle Lowry and his 10M dollar contract sit.
W: Lowry picked a bad time to have a bad year and Toronto fans are calling for his trade. The problem is, no one wants or needs him. The Raptors would have to ship off one of their younger assets to get someone to bite on Lowry at this point.
V: Toronto might just have to do that. Kabango is hanging around and looks good in relief of Lowry.
W: And then the Knicks.
V: Ah, your team. Should I leave the room for a minute?
W: I just want to say that Carmelo was a horrible investment and that James Dolan managed to unload him rather well, surprisingly. Derrick Williams, Glenn Robinson, Isaiah Austin, Shumpert and Trey Burke is an impressive starting five, at least on paper. I just wonder if Knicks fans can wait for this team to gel.
V: Hey, at least your uniforms are cooler than the Nets. Way cooler. Black is so 2012.
W: I kinda hate you right now. But the Knicks are set up decently for the future. Whether they make it work is another question.
The Central Division
V: The Pacers are running away with this thing but they’re losing bodies to injuries. Hill, Blair and Christmas are out for weeks at a time … will that be the undoing of this team? They’ve had bad luck with injuries all year long and remind me of my grandmother during that one year she broke both her feet attempting to crossover my aunt.
W: Did I mention how much I hated you?
V: Yes.
W: Okay, with that out of the way then I want to say the Pacers will be fine. I want to say they’ll be okay. I want to say this is just a phase and they’ll get through it. But I don’t know for sure. The Cavs are coming and your pick earlier seems to be the right one.
V: Yeah, boys, Kyrie Irving, Bradley and Horford are making me look good. I mean, seriously, where can I start with them? Career years for Irving and Bradley, not to mention Thompson and the team looks to be gelling well.
W: Better than the Bulls, anyway. Rose and Mayo, after early season success, seem to be getting in one another’s way. Could the Bulls have made a critical error in getting Mayo?
V: They should have just stuck with ketchup and mustard, why were they so brave!
W: … and the Bulls are going to have to make some tough decisions in regards to Mayo and Noah. Noah is a free agent and will command money despite his age/injury history. You don’t find guys with the heart and hustle he had. If the Bulls fail to make the playoffs -- a possibility -- will Noah leave?
V: Hey, maybe, but he loves Chicago and the city loves him. I feel like Noah would only leave if the Bulls really lowballed him, which is also a distinct possibility.
W: He won’t be heading to the Bucks in FA, but they may make the playoffs if they keep their upward trajectory. They survived the loss of LARRY SANDERS! and now that he’s back, look to be in prime position to have a good second half.
V: So that just leaves the Pistons.
W: Joe Dumars. ‘Nough said.
The Southeast Division
V: The toughest division in the East and the Heat are back atop it. Weren’t we worried they’d lost a step? They seem to be fine despite the continued injuries to Gortat who’s out for another extended stretch.
W: LeBron James is carrying a lot of the offensive load, but Mario Chalmers is having a career year (13.1 PPG) and so are the two young Heat big men, Joshua Smith and Alex Oriakhi. With the Heat’s deep bench (Ginobli, Tobias Harris, AK47) and a favorable second-half schedule, they may just retake the division crown.
V: Not so fast my friend!
W: You didn’t just Corso me. You didn’t just do that.
V: I’m not giving the division to the Heat just yet. Look at the Bobcats, who are just a few games back and have youth on their side, not to mention just as much motivation. After missing the playoffs last year, the team is gung-ho on getting back to the postseason and making some noise.
W: I’ll grant you, the team is playing well and so are the stars of that team. Noel, MKG and Tyreke Evans are all having great years but Jordan can’t afford to keep both MKG and Noel in the offseason, can he? The team would be tied down to those two while Evans and Harrow’s status are left in the wind. There’s not enough money unless the ‘Cats go over the cap and that seems unfathomable for a team that struggles to make the playoffs.
V: Jordan and the Bobcats can’t afford to let them go for nothing, but they can let them go. It’s a matter of who and Noel is a rarer talent than MKG. I see Jordan auctioning off MKG who’s, at best, a more athletic All-Star Shawn Marion. Noel is a game changing center in the vein of Noah with a slightly more diverse offensive skill-set.
W: I’m not sold on the Bobcats. I’m more sold on the Wizards, who are rising up the ranks and are getting better. They’re a team who’s balance I can appreciate. Money has been sunk into Wall and Beal, both are producing and the other parts around them are doing their jobs. In terms of this year and longer term, I feel like the Wizards are better set up.
V: Wall and Beal are doing great, but they have the greatest playoff weakness of the three: DeAndre Jordan. He’s an offensive reject who is a horrible freethrow shooter and will cost them in the playoffs. They’re younger center, Diop, may be the better starter in that scenario. It’ll be interesting to see what Keith Smart does come that time.
W: I find myself more interested in the discombobulating Hawks. They’re horrible and Michael Beasley has broken this team concept. The loss of Alex Len for the next few weeks also doesn’t help at all. Does Beasley get traded at the deadline? And to where? The entire league is sure he’s a knucklehead at this point.
V: Beasley is shooting a ridiculous 38 percent from deep but only 40 percent otherwise. He’s a stretch four who needs a dominant big to suck in defenders while he jacks up shots. 16.2 PPG is nothing to sneeze at, but finding a fit for him … that’s tough. If I were to bet, I’m betting on someone trading him for someone else who isn’t living up to the hype of their contract or someone looking to make a move.
W: Only teams I can think of like that would be the Nets, Spurs or Pistons. But really, the Hawks would have to part with a first rounder to get rid of him and, at this point, they just can’t afford that as Alex Len looks to be an ineffective center for their purposes. He could be traded in the offseason but Beasley looks like he’s staying.
V: Well, we know the Magic aren’t going to be interested. They have the most intriguing core of players in the division with Muhammad, Mudiay and Blake Griffin. If they can figure out what they’re doing this season and carry it into the next, they’ll have a legitimate shot at being competitive. But not this year.
W: You have to feel for Blake Griffin who got the short end of the trade from the Clippers. Unlike Chris Paul which brings us to …
The Northwest Division
V: The leaders of the division, the Denver Nuggets, are playing well behind the leadership of Lawson, Iggy and Faried, but this team seems to have hit a ceiling in the playoffs last year, their first without George Karl. Will they be able to get back to the Finals as assembled?
W: Maybe. This division, top to bottom, is the toughest in the NBA and possibly any of the major sports leagues. Not a single team with a losing record, not a team close to a losing record and they beat each other up brutally. The Nuggets are currently dealing with injures to McGee but are witnessing the rise of Faried, who’s averaging 17 PPG with 9.9 boards. The guy’s a beast.
V: Of course Gallinari is still there but he’s not scoring nearly as much as previous years. His efficiency is up, though but so is his contract after this year, like McGee. Is either of them going to be retained? I can’t be sure.
W: No on in the league is right now. Both are solid players, Gallinari can even be called good most nights, but neither is an All-Star and both were overpaid on their last deals. If the Nuggets make no noise in the playoffs this year, with a healthy roster, I expect a change. Even if they do make a noise, I expect McGee to go.
V: While the Nuggets deal with those questions, Chris Paul is leading the Jazz to their best record in years. The trade to the Jazz has paid huge dividends for him and his new buddy, Derrick Favors.
W: This team is strange and a sleeper pick for the Finals. Paul is having a bad year by his standards and scoring averages across the team are down, yet the team itself is doing well. This could be a trend or merely a fluke, but it looks like a trend so far. Everyone is sacrificing their stats for the win and that bodes very well for securing a good playoff spot.
V: But we all know that in the playoffs, the stars carry the team to victory. Can Paul, Favors or Hayward do that?
W: Not sure, as none of them have previously. But star power isn’t the problem for the Thunder, they have Durant and Westbrook. They also have a thin bench and are stuck in the most competitive division in years. Will they secure a top seed? OKC thrives on homecourt advantage.
V: Doubtful. OKC is my father after a family reunion; just exhausted from all the infighting and bickering. Anyone who comes out of that division is going to be beat up and I don’t see OKC going far with their thinnest bench in years.
W: Which brings us to the ‘Wolves, who are witnessing Rubio and Ellis explode for career points. Love is doing his thing and so is Pek, and they haven’t suffered a major injury yet. Is the curse over?
V: Probably not since you just brought it up but they’re poised to succeed in the postseason. The Blazers were too until Nicolas Batum got injured. He’s dealing with a bum knee and he was having a career year. He’s going to play through it but can the Blazers afford to keep him? He’s in need of a new contract after this year.
W: They can at the right price. Batum is easily the best two way player that team has but the free agency market is rife with possible replacements at a cheaper price. Personally, I see the Blazers letting him walk and letting someone else set the price. With Wilson Chandler, Thad Young or Moe Harkless out there, players who can do a lot of the same things as Batum, the Blazers may opt to let him go. Their primary focus is Lillard who has to be retained and who has to be happy with the franchise's direction. The offseason will be very interesting. Batum will set his value in the postseason, assuming the Blazers make it.
The Pacific Division
V: Speaking of the postseason, the defending champions are looking REALLY good. Jabari Parker and Anthony Randolph are absolutely killing it this year as reliable vets Tony Parker and Kobe Bryant continue to ply their game while Bogut holds down the paint. Tell me they’re not the best looking team in the West.
W: They are in that division but I see the Hornets as better. What happens to Kobe and Tony after this year is the question. Retirement? Better pastures for Parker? Kobe is going to retire a Laker no matter what. Jabari Parker has made it his personal mission to make the league regret ever thinking Wiggins was better than him. He’s in the MVP race and clearly has a chip on his shoulder.
V: Well, the Lakers are way ahead of the Warriors, who are looking good across the board. If Steph Curry stays healthy, is this the team that gets them past the first round?
W: If falls on the bigs of Bosh and Drummond. Both have to do their jobs, which they have so far, and both have to pay within Mark Jackson’s concept. The spread the floor action is going to be more difficult to pull off in the playoffs, where things slow down. If Bosh and Drummond play well, they’ll be fine.
V: Will Drummond re-sign?
W: He has to. He’s on a winning team and he’s being allowed to do what he likes, play defense and gobble up boards. Re-signing him is almost a lock but doing so without having to trade someone isn’t. Klay Thompson could be the odd-man out as two-guard shooters are easy to find and he’s having a down year.
V: And then the Kings. The team is barely afloat at .500 and needs some sort of jolt of life. McAdoo has been a disappointment this year, Thomas and Cousins are performing well but Robinson is pretty much done here. Where does this guy go?
W: The Kings will have to move him at the deadline and I’m seeing them shipping him off, along with Landry Fields, for a high priced veteran who can move them over the top. The Pistons might do it as Robinson is a young talent and will mesh better with Monroe than Drummond did, the Rockets might unload Lin or Smith here, the Nets are possible. But veteran talent to lead the team would be preferable and I think the best bet is the Rockets.
V: Well, at least they have hope for a playoff run this year. The Suns don’t, but the Melo and Jennings pairing is interesting. Larsen looks good too, when he’s on the court.
W: Lost year for the Suns but word has it that a new GM will be introduced post All-Star break and hopefully with a front office vision they can assemble something.
V: And then there’s the Clippers, who sold off their veteran talent for young guys and were bought by Jim Buss, who’s the owner and GM of the team. Oh, LA, you never disappoint. Will Jim Buss and his sister come to blows before the season’s out?
W: Doubtful but the Clippers offseason will be the most interesting in the league. No doubt.
The Southwest Division
V: The Hornets are dominating this division but Eric Gordon is the constant trade rumor guy. Is he going? Are the Hornets going to trade a guy who’s leading the team in scoring?
W: He’s doing it inefficiently and he’s likely going to falter in the playoffs. For the Hornets, that’s not a great thing but letting him walk would be better. Gordon’s services are not in high demand across the league and as of right now, only the Pacers are interested in him. With the injury to George Hill, they could use Gordon to pair with George and elevate them above the Heat. However, Jimmer is playing the best ball of his life with 17.7 PPG and has the team in good shape. Gordon will likely walk in FA.
V: And the Spurs keep chugging on. How is that possible? Duncan is ancient, they’re playing with a bunch of cast offs in Brandon Knight, Tyshawn Taylor and Paul Millsap. And Pop isn’t even coaching the team anymore!
W: The organization remains one of the best at scouting in the NBA and this season has shown that. The Spurs defy logic and, if they can stay healthy, they run the risk of making the playoffs and being the team no one wants to face because no one knows what to expect. With a bench consisting of a wild rookie talent in Oladipo, defensive big Biyombo and criminally underappreciated Arron Afflalo, the team is a mash of weird. But they work and they work just like any Spurs team, as a team. Beautiful basketball.
V: If the Spurs are beautiful, the Rockets are ugly. Defense is nonexistent and the team is falling short of expectations, again. Lin and Smith are rumored to be gone by the deadline or in the offseason when more teams have cap space. This is not the star team that many envisioned.
W: Lin, Smith, Harden and Jefferson are all problems but in different ways. Lin needs the ball in his hands to be effective but so does Harden and Jefferson. Smith is the only one who plays defense and has poor shot selection, Jefferson is slow up the court and is more suited for a slower style of play unlike the rest of his team … the talent is there. The fit is not.
V: The Grizzlies are making positive strides, though. The team isn’t super horrible, only ten games under .500.
W. They’re also the most inefficient starting five in the league. Turner and Thornton are both missing shots while Conley is suffering trying to keep them together on the floor. Conley is off to greener pastures after this year, leaving the Grizzles with a glaring hole at point and a possible player for that position in FA.
V: The Mavericks are really bad, though, right? Right?
W: With little doubt. The Brook Lopez acquisition was good but this team is not designed to play to his strengths right now. Kemba is safe, everyone else could be gone this offseason which would be yet another year Dallas tries to fix a roster that’s been broken since they won their title.
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