The Grantland NBA Third Trimester Report
By Vonny Lee and Winslow Fisher on April 17, 2016
Vonny: It’s the end of the season and what a whirlwind! Did you see this season coming together as it did? Of course not!
Winslow: The lengthy regular season has ended, which I’m glad for.
V: Only because you don’t have to watch the Knicks suck anymore.
The Raw Data:
NBA Standings - Updated: Apr 17, 2016 | |||
ATLANTIC | W | L | GB |
Nets | 42 | 40 | |
76ers | 38 | 44 | |
Raptors | 37 | 45 | |
Knicks | 34 | 38 | |
Celtics | 33 | 39 | |
CENTRAL | W | L | GB |
Cavaliers | 46 | 36 | |
Pacers | 41 | 41 | |
Bucks | 41 | 41 | |
Bulls | 34 | 38 | |
Pistons | 24 | 58 | |
SOUTHEAST | W | L | GB |
Heat | 53 | 29 | |
Bobcats | 47 | 35 | |
Wizards | 45 | 37 | |
Magic | 37 | 45 | |
Hawks | 32 | 50 | |
NORTHWEST | W | L | GB |
Thunder | 51 | 31 | |
Jazz | 48 | 34 | |
Trail Blazers | 46 | 36 | |
Nuggets | 45 | 37 | |
Timberwolves | 41 | 41 | |
PACIFIC | W | L | GB |
Lakers | 62 | 20 | |
Kings | 44 | 38 | |
Warriors | 44 | 38 | |
Suns | 33 | 49 | |
Clippers | 29 | 53 | |
SOUTHWEST | W | L | GB |
Hornets | 51 | 31 | |
Spurs | 43 | 39 | |
Rockets | 38 | 44 | |
Grizzlies | 37 | 45 | |
Mavericks | 33 | 49 |
The Atlantic Division
V: Well, I had to see it to believe it, but the Nets came together and made the playoffs! Your brother must be ecstatic, right? How could he have predicted the team would finish with a winning record?
W: Based on the rest of the division, I think most would have predicted one team getting out with a winning record. I’d like to talk more about them but we have a playoff preview to do immediately after this, don’t we? I hate Simmons.
V: With how often he keeps assigning us together, I think he hates you, too. But, let’s talk about the division losers here otherwise known as everyone else. The 76ers SOMEHOW made the playoffs in a wretched East and their the seventh seed!
W: Bynum and Holiday elevated their games in the final stretch of the season, solidifying their spot. But the Raptors choked their last three games, dropping them all (one to the Pistons by 20 points) and dashing their playoff hopes against the rocks. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in that last week of games for the Raptors and the drumbeat to trade him has already begun.
V: I doubt they’ll be any takers. That was like my grandmother’s team, they missed the playoffs one year and tried to trade their shortest player and couldn’t find any takers. They eventually just stuck her on the bench and let her knit jumpsuits for the team during games.
W: I … I’m not sure what to say to you right now.
V: Speechless? The Knicks must feel similar. Their year has been a disaster but their new talent finished on a rather strong note, winning their last four out of five, making that draft pick they sent to the Suns with Melo worth a lot less. They could have been a top-five pick and instead they’ll be in the lower part of the lottery. Nice save, New York!
W: There’s a future there, for sure, for most of those players. I’m not sold on Isaiah Austin, but Burke, Shumpert, Robinson, and Williams are keepers. That’s the core, right there. Austin feels like someone who’s got a lot of potential and too much ego.
V: He’s a big man and he can rebound and play defense! They need that kind of player at the five spot. But at least they ended on a positive note … not so much for the Celtics. A team with that much talent missed the playoffs … someone’s head’s rolling.
W: Word out of Boston is that this is the end of Rivers and Rondo. Aldridge wasn’t pleased with the way the year ended and might already be trying to run away from Boston, but he’s willing to give it another season according to people around him. Where does Rondo go, though? A guard like him will fetch a solid return.
V: He won’t go to someone within the division unless it’s a swap between the Raptors and Celtics on “Point guards we don’t want” but I doubt that’s gonna happen.
The Central Division
W: The Cavs made it in as the division winners and are looking dangerous.
V: Why are they the division winners? Paul George or rather his injury after the all-star break which crippled the Pacers as they became the Jimmer team and Jimmer shot them out of a lot of games (and into a lot of them, too). Can you believe how far this team has fallen since the break? Will they be able to make noise in the playoffs?
W: The team is built for that but the loss of the division title stings. The fact they were only five games behind is a testament to how bad the East is. The fact the Bucks also made the playoffs and also were only five games behind is an even more damning statistic.
V: Too many playoff teams in this division! But the Bucks, the BUCKS, made it in! Adonis Thomas and LARRY SANDERS! has this team looking like … you know, a pro team!
W: You’re too excited for this. Let’s move on to something more depressing, like the Bulls who finished with a losing record for the first time in years. Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Noah are the remaining pieces of that championship team. They have a lot of youth that should mature more by next year, but will Noah be resigned?
V: You have to, don’t you? You tried to make a play with OJ Mayo and failed. You traded for KCP and saw his play improve in your system, but Noah is the anchor in the frontcourt for this team. You’re gonna rely on Thomas Robinson to do better than Noah? I don’t think so.
W: Robinson, at this point, has more upside and Chicago is willing to make him their big man of the future. Noah is 31 and, statistically, has been declining for the last two seasons. Robinson is a better long-term investment.
V: But is he a guy who’ll carry that frontcourt? And if you let Noah go, will you be able to find a suitable (and cheaper) replacement? Chicago is a mess.
W: Not as much of one as the Pistons Bledsoe and Monroe isn’t working and we’re at year three in this experiment. Both their productions took a hit this year, the team had to auction off Drummond to the Warriors (who made the playoffs and look way better than they should after this trade), and they’re positioned for ANOTHER top-five pick. When are they going to ascend like the Cavs?
V: Um … never? Joe Dumars, everyone!
The Southeast Division
W: It was a tight race all year in this division till the final stretch of the season, where the Heat retook the crown (making them the third different winner in three years) and the runner-ups (the Bobcats and Wizards) made the playoffs with the second and fifth seed, respectively.
V: That’s all you can say about those three teams! Let’s focus on the Magic who ALMOST made the playoffs. Think about that. They nearly completed a miraculous comeback and literally just needed the 76ers to lose that last game, but they didn’t. Blake Griffin, Shabazz Muhammad, and Emmanuel Mudiay nearly pulled off the impossible! I’m picking this team as my darkhorse next season.
W: It’d be a good pick. The Magic have positioned themselves beautifully for the next few years and, if one can believe rumors, could be looking at picking up Doc Rivers. Rivers maintains a home in Orlando during the offseason and has a fondness for that franchise as the one that gave him his first crack at coaching. The two parties are on good terms and Rivers would like nothing better than to help mold Mudiay and Muhammad into stars while relying on Griffin for some big man highlights. He’s enamored with the roster … according to rumors.
V: Is it too much to ask he consider the Hawks, though? They are in need of some help, desperately and don’t seem to have any direction. Waiters and Teague compete for the ball, Beasley shoots the damn thing every time he touches it and Chandler Parsons is wishing he just stayed in college at this point.
W: They’re in a bad way, no doubt, but that’s because they have too much of the same player on that team. Teague and Waiters are very ball dominant players and Beasley, for all his size, doesn’t work the paint very well. Parsons is a sniper who’s a huge value on a playoff squad but has little on a team like this. If the Hawks are serious about being a playoff team, they have to jettison Teague and Parsons: Beasley is likely untradeable but Danny Ferry has done the impossible before.
The Northwest Division
V: You want to know how good this division was? The Thunder, Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Nuggets ALL made the playoffs as the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth seed respectively. That’s 80 percent of the division. That’s four out of five teams and damn it if the Timberwolves weren’t close to making it all five! Insane.
W: The Timberwolves are left out of the postseason for the first time in a few years, but that’s just bad luck on their part. A late season injury to Monta Ellis sunk their playoff hopes like the Titanic and they had no one to back him up (after losing Shved to the Blazers last offseason). The lack of depth in the wings killed them and it’ll have to be addressed in the offseason, which luckily has a lot of wings on the market.
V: Well, at least the Timberwolves didn’t lose in the playoffs, right? Right?
The Pacific Division
W: Your Lakers made it in with the best record in the league (by nine games). The Kings and Warriors followed, nipping on their heels. See, no spoilers.
V: Well, let’s talk about the Suns, then. They went on a four game winning streak, two of those games over playoff teams (the Jazz and Kings) and looked somewhat functional as a team. Now, the question is HOW functional are they? New GM Veronica Sellers has stated that everyone will be evaluated this offseason. Were the players playing for their lives those last four games?
W: Sellers is a relative unknown but she’s got the degree to back up her position. Whether that translates is another question but from what scouts are saying, she has keen basketball mind and is absolutely ruthless in her evaluations. Melo is on the block, for sure. Jennings may be if the right offer comes along and everyone else is up for grabs. Expect the Suns to look a lot different next year.
V: And then Jim Buss and the Clippers! God, this division has all the drama, doesn’t it? Buss vs. Buss in the same building! Except Jim is still … well, Jim. A Slimmer Jim, but Jim. He traded for youth/potential in Alec Burks and, has Kanter and Vonleh but … is this a team or a collection of talent?
W: The latter, at the moment. Collison is there as the veteran point guard but whether he stays or not is up to him. Andrew Harrison is looking to ascend to the starting spot. Burks is a different type of two man than Wolters (who was having a good year before being benched for Burks) and he’s on a kind contract. But the team is just a bunch of young names right now. There’s not a star among them. Kanter won’t go as Buss loves his size and game, but everyone else? Completely tradeable.
The Southwest Division
V: The Hornets made it in and that’s expected, just barely getting the second seed. What about everyone else?
W: The Spurs fell just short of getting Duncan back to the playoffs, but at least the veteran can go out with a winning season. He’ll be missed in San Antonio and he is the second of that Spurs dynasty to go off into the sunset (behind Pop). When will Manu and Parker follow?
V: I don’t know. It’s a sad thing to watch the Big Fundamental leave the game but it just shows the way the NBA is changing. The old guard is slowly disappearing … now all we have left really is Kobe and after this season he may go, too! Where have the years gone?
W: Things are changing out West and it’s not done. The Rockets disappointed, yet again and this time there’s no Jeremy Lin to take the fall. It’s Harden or Smith or Jefferson. The Rockets ownership is reportedly very frustrated at the team’s poor performance and wants a complete retooling done around Harden. Moving Smoove and Jefferson will be difficult, but the Rockets have a way of getting things done.
V: If the Rockets ownership is frustrated, thing how the Grizzlies feel! Evan Turner and co. have given them really nothing but they managed to pull off a really decent end to the season and at the same time call into question how good this team CAN be. Benching Thornton for Harrison was a pro move and gave this team a boost they needed. But is Conley the solution at point? Where do the Grizz go this offseason?
W: There’s a logic to keeping Conley and seeing how this plays out for the next three seasons or so, but the Grizz are shying away from that according to people within the organization. Conley is a scoring burst and the Grizz need that, but do they need it bad enough to re-sign him? The market isn’t rife with point guard options, other than maybe Lillard but he’s made the playoffs and, depending on how well the Trail Blazers perform, might not be in play when FA opens.
V: The Mavericks might have more questions than them. Kemba Walker is a star on that team but Dirk is gonna retire. Brook Lopez is there but how effective is he going to be with the team as constructed? I mean, really, with Granger there hoisting shots and Jimmy Butler not being much use at all offensively?
W: Granger and Butler are the problems here. Both function best at the three but Butler has been playing the two for most of his time there in Dallas. Neither is particularly great trade bait, but Granger has an expiring deal and Dallas could take back some dead money to get someone at the two who can work better with Kemba. Butler has sunk a sad .177 percentage from deep this year and that’s just not going to cut it at either position: he has a friendly contract and age, I could see him being moved.
TO BE CONTINUED FOR THE ROUND ONE PLAYOFF PREVIEW …
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