NBA 2016-17 Preview
October 21st, 2016
By Vonny Lee
The Heat
Previous Record: 51-31
Key Losses: Hassan Whiteside (FA), Gerald Green (FA, Luol Deng (FA)
Key Additions: Dwayne Wade (1yr/$18M), Al Jefferson (2yr/$23M), OJ Mayo (2yr/13M), Ronnie Price (1yr/$2M)
When we last saw them ...
The Heat had given the Cavs a tough, seven game series but just fell short. After fighting through the first two rounds (going five and seven games respectively with their opponents), Miami came within mere points of knocking out the Cavs and returning to the Finals. Instead, they found themselves headed into the offseason with many questions.
One of those questions was Whiteside: such a key contributor over the last two seasons, a great complement to both Wade and Bosh, Whiteside wasn't content with Miami or the way he was merely a third wheel. He wanted to be a presence, he wanted to be known for something more, and so he left, leaving the Heat.
Pat Riley didn't panic, he pivoted: in a deft maneuver, Riley grabbed Big Al Jefferson from Charlotte and brought him into the fold, signing him to a two year deal and giving him exclusive rights to the left block. Bosh would now have the rest of the floor to work with (acting more in his role as a stretch-four) and the post presence would draw defenders in, allowing Wade and Dragic a bit more space to work.
Justise Winslow, who showed how valuable he was last season, steps in to become the defacto SF and the Heat grabbed shooter OJ Mayo to give him (and Wade) some backup minutes.
The Heat have more athleticism on the wing now with Winslow assuming the starting role and Mayo coming off the bench. The depth isn't as good as it was the year before and, with Wade and Bosh another year older, Miami will be relying on Winslow to continue to progress as their star of the future. But in a weakened East, with a weaker Cavs team at the top, Miami has a shot for the first seed.
Storyline to Follow:
Is Riley done?
Pat Riley has been a fixture of the Heat organization for over two decades and he's single-handedly built that organization into something to be feared and admired. But this offseason was not as he planned it, was not as he wanted it, and with Wade continuing to demand backpay from all the paycuts he took in previous years, Miami's cap situation isn't looking to friendly. Despite all that, Pat Riley managed to maneuver and land quality talent at good prices.
But is this all Pat Riley will do? Some in league circles don't believe so. Miami has discovered a star in Justice Winslow and looks to have secured the future of the franchise once Wade and Bosh go off into the sunset, but who will run with Justice is the question? The search for the Heat running mate is on and sources around the league firmly believe Riley will make a play for a younger player before the deadline. With the Heat's lack of draft picks, their bargaining chips are the expiring contracts of Josh McRoberts ...
And Dwayne Wade. Would Riley be so cold as to trade Wade in his twilight years, especially after all he's done for the organization? In a word: yes. Riley's not known for being sentimental and Wade's 18 million dollar contract is large enough where it could provide significant cap relief for a team with a younger player that Riley likes. No team has been attached to the rumors but suffice it to say, plenty of noise will be made about Wade's future -- will he end up traded or will Wade retire at the end of the year? Will Wade ask for a similar amount of money next season?
No one knows. But Pat Riley certainly knows what he'll do, even now.
Best Case Scenario: The Heat's moves and the Cavs trade of Love allow Miami to snatch the first seed from Cleveland, giving them a clear path to the Finals. The development of Justice Winslow continues and he becomes a big cog in the team's push back to the Finals, where they manage to use their vast experience to grab one more title for Wade before he finally hangs them up.
Worst Case Scenario: The Heat catch fire and burn to ashes early in the season: Winslow regresses and Wade's injuries begin piling up again as Bosh and Dragic attempt to play with Al Jefferson, but all the styles conflict rather than compliment and Miami finishes in the bottom five of the conference, forfeiting a high pick in the next draft and watching Wade leave the franchise for a better chance at a late-career ring.
Likely Scenario: The Heat play well enough to snag the three or four seed and make things interesting in the playoffs, but the team isn't able to get out of the second round and heads home earlier than last year thanks to missing the presence of Whiteside and bench leader Gerald Green.
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