I agree. Only current 2 loss team that has a chance now is LSU. But, even they need a lot to happen. Even if they get a USC lost, still might need a TCU loss as well. But even then, does a 2 loss LSU make it over a 1 loss OSU/UM. I do think upset wins over Bama, Ole Miss(ranked #7 at time), UGA would make a compelling case for LSU.
Week 12 Discussion
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
I agree. Only current 2 loss team that has a chance now is LSU. But, even they need a lot to happen. Even if they get a USC lost, still might need a TCU loss as well. But even then, does a 2 loss LSU make it over a 1 loss OSU/UM. I do think upset wins over Bama, Ole Miss(ranked #7 at time), UGA would make a compelling case for LSU. -
Re: Week 12 Discussion
I personally prefer a system where teams actually earn their way to a playoff spot and they aren't given it simply because they have talent on paper, but it seems all sports are moving away from earning things in the regular season.“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
― PlatoComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
That's fine. Based on tiebreakers, Oregon has a really good chance of still making it even if they lose. I know that's what you meant...Comment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
For those that want a conference championship mandatory for making the playoff, then college football essentially needs to go to the NFL model. Conference standings and best teams are inherently different standards. "Best" is highly subjective. It involves winning, but also style points, and also playing a hard OOC schedule to add to your conference games to give you an advantage in SOS over others who are of similar quality. Then opinion forms of who the best teams are based on all the results combined.
Conference standings don't work like that. A 59 point win over Ohio State or a 1 point win in 4 overtimes against Rutgers count the same. You're either 1-0 or 0-1. There are objective standards to win a conference in contrast to the subjectivity of who the best teams are. You just finish higher in the standings. It doesn't matter if you went 0-4 in your OOC as long as you win these other 8. OOC games largely become irrelevant and may as well be done away with. Is it fair for a team to miss Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in one season while another then misses Rutgers, Indiana and Michigan State instead? A full blown round robin is probably necessary to make it even. Divisions? Well, why should a 5-3 team get to a championship game against an 8-0 team just because the three best teams in the conference happen to play in the same division? Extreme scenarios like that happen. Toledo once went 10-1 and didn't win their conference. 5-6 North Texas did. 5-3 Kansas State beat 8-0 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. Kansas went 11-1 without having to play Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the south who were the top 3 teams. We're about to get 9-0 Ohio State/Michigan against a 6-3(at best) or 5-4 team possibly. A lot of things need to change to just say 'conference champions only' and it automatically make you the most deserving.Comment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
Not fully surprised that LSU is over USC in the CFP standings. I still think TCU should be safe if they win the next 2, especially since Kansas State should still be top 15 by time they play again. Even if LSU upsets UGA, I still wouldn't them over an undefeated TCU. But, I would be if it was over the loser of OSU/UM.Attached FilesComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
I don’t think Clemson is 1 Of the best 4 teams but they are not out of it yet
They could finish as 12-1 acc champion.
They need help but I think Michigan and LSU both lose
LSU definitely out with 3 losses at that point
Mich resume with no conf championship would be out compare to Clemson 1 loss conf champions
Ga at 1, Ocryo st at 2
Then it is tcu usc and Clemson for spots 3-4.
Then If one of tcu or usc loses, Clemson is in, imo at 4
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If mich and or lsu win they are in and ga and o st stay in.
Interesting scenario;
If both lsu and tcu win then tcu is an undefeated conf champ who gets left out?
You would have :
lsu- 2 loss sec champ
Mich-b10 champ undefeated
Ga 1 loss sec
Ost 1 loss b10
Tcu undefeated b12 conf champion
Maybe usc 1 loss pac champComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
I don’t think Clemson is 1 Of the best 4 teams but they are not out of it yet
They could finish as 12-1 acc champion.
They need help but I think Michigan and LSU both lose
LSU definitely out with 3 losses at that point
Mich resume with no conf championship would be out compare to Clemson 1 loss conf champions
Ga at 1, Ocryo st at 2
Then it is tcu usc and Clemson for spots 3-4.
Then If one of tcu or usc loses, Clemson is in, imo at 4
—
If mich and or lsu win they are in and ga and o st stay in.
Interesting scenario;
If both lsu and tcu win then tcu is an undefeated conf champ who gets left out?
You would have :
lsu- 2 loss sec champ
Mich-b10 champ undefeated
Ga 1 loss sec
Ost 1 loss b10
Tcu undefeated b12 conf champion
Maybe usc 1 loss pac champ
I think if TCU loses, that changes things. If that happens, I think USC makes it at 12-1. If LSU wins both, then they'll likely bump up over to #4 over the loser of OSU/UM. I think the loser if OSU/UM is safe if TCU and LSU or USC loses. I don't want to say Clemson is out of it, but they would need to dominate next 2 games to get into considerationComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
For those that want a conference championship mandatory for making the playoff, then college football essentially needs to go to the NFL model. Conference standings and best teams are inherently different standards. "Best" is highly subjective. It involves winning, but also style points, and also playing a hard OOC schedule to add to your conference games to give you an advantage in SOS over others who are of similar quality. Then opinion forms of who the best teams are based on all the results combined.
Conference standings don't work like that. A 59 point win over Ohio State or a 1 point win in 4 overtimes against Rutgers count the same. You're either 1-0 or 0-1. There are objective standards to win a conference in contrast to the subjectivity of who the best teams are. You just finish higher in the standings. It doesn't matter if you went 0-4 in your OOC as long as you win these other 8. OOC games largely become irrelevant and may as well be done away with. Is it fair for a team to miss Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in one season while another then misses Rutgers, Indiana and Michigan State instead? A full blown round robin is probably necessary to make it even. Divisions? Well, why should a 5-3 team get to a championship game against an 8-0 team just because the three best teams in the conference happen to play in the same division? Extreme scenarios like that happen. Toledo once went 10-1 and didn't win their conference. 5-6 North Texas did. 5-3 Kansas State beat 8-0 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. Kansas went 11-1 without having to play Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the south who were the top 3 teams. We're about to get 9-0 Ohio State/Michigan against a 6-3(at best) or 5-4 team possibly. A lot of things need to change to just say 'conference champions only' and it automatically make you the most deserving.
We have literal decades worth of data where if we applied the current playoff system with the "conference champion" pre-requisite, it would not be a problem with identifying who the best teams are. Because the best team and the most deserving are quite often synonymous in a sport where the top teams regularly blow out their opponents due to talent disparity which should not shock anyone.
If a scenario played out where OSU beats Michigan and then Iowa pulls off a huge upset in the B1G title game against them them then it doesn't change much other than offer an elimination game. Because as supremely rare as the above scenario is (an undefeated P5 losing to an 3+ loss team in the conference championship), it's simply unprecedented that we would also see UGA, Clemson, TCU or USC also lose on the same day. So, the CFP still has 4 very good very deserving teams. Conference title games have only been around for about 30 years, but for that entire time we have never had a scenario where a major upset happened and we did not have at least 4 other qualified teams.Comment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
Yea, I don't think we'd need to go to an NFL model. Each year we already see that for the most part everything works out alright at just 4 teams. We hardly ever actually have a real debate about needing it expanded for a 5th team, and never for a 6th or greater team.
I also disagree with the idea that it makes OOC games irrelevant. If you have 5 different 12-1 conference champions, which already pretty much doesn't happen, then if any of them have a marquee OOC win then it automatically puts them in the playoff.
I also agree that the best teams and the most deserving teams are usually synonymous. While it worked itself out this year, I hate the idea of a team like Tennessee getting in had they not even won the East because they had style points while going 11-1. Especially if it meant something like a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson not getting in. Before they lost to South Carolina, Tennessee had their shot to prove they belonged in the playoffs and they had an noncompetitive game against UGA. To me, that should have basically sealed their fate there.
I also think that if LSU does upset UGA, then UGA should not get a mulligan and be allowed into the playoffs. You're just making more and more games worthless by allowing stuff like that to happen which pretty much goes against what has made college football so special for so long. If we sit here and allow teams that don't even play for their conference title to make the playoffs, or we expand and allow even more at-large teams, then the regular season is significantly devalued and the game isn't anything close to what made college football special, especially when we're losing historical rivalry games left and right with conference expansion. Moving towards the NFL anymore at all is not the right move.“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
― PlatoComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
If LSU loses this weekend to A&M (unlikely, but possible) then turns around and upsets Georgia in the SEC championship, are you cool with LSU getting in over Georgia?
We clobbered LSU in Baton Rouge.Last edited by LowerWolf; 11-23-2022, 01:08 AM.Comment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
Playing devil's advocate, why does LSU get a mulligan then? Didn't they have their shot against Tennessee and lost (at home) in a noncompetitive game? Why does that game not matter in terms of the playoff but Tennessee's loss to Georgia does?
If LSU loses this weekend to A&M (unlikely, but possible) then turns around and upsets Georgia in the SEC championship, are you cool with LSU getting in over Georgia?
Playing devil's advocate again, shouldn't we consider Iowa then? They won their conference. What if we get a bonkers championship weekend and Iowa, LSU, Kansas State, North Carolina and Oregon all win? Are we taking four of those five?
We clobbered LSU in Baton Rouge.
I'll take a regular season where anyone who wants to make a playoff has something to play for in virtually every game they play over this scenario where almost half your season's schedule is apparently meaningless except to practice for some different games. Lots of things definitely need to change for a conference championship-only requirement.Comment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
The chaotic weekend that you described where all those teams lose is technically possible but it is so improbable that it isn't worth regulating. If uga, OSU, Clemson, tcu and USC all lose then it would be the first time that ever having that many top teams lose in 1 weekend. We have never even come close to something like that in over 100 years of college football and certainly not since conference championship games became a thing.
It would be a case of managing to the exception. And in this case the exception is as close to being actually impossible as you can get.
For arguments sake though. If the stars aligned and some kind of beyond freakish anomaly did happen for all those teams to lose then yeah I'm fine with Iowa getting in or whomever is the top rated. Because the alternative is that conference championship games are nothing more than glorified exhibitions as they are for both UGA and the OSU/Michigan winner this year.
The CCG winner requirement also opens the door to more none P5 schools. While a scenario where all of the top P5 schools lose their conference simply won't happen. There is a chance that 1 or maybe 2 of them do lose in certain years which then opens the door to more non traditional CFP participants.
Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using TapatalkComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
Yea, that is too improbable of a situation to really worry about. Should that many upsets happen, then it is clearly a chaotic year that will lead to a chaotic playoff tree that is an outlier and is not representative of how the system works.
Realistically, we're going to probably see an upset, potentially two at most, but we're likely going to be left with a 13-0 UGA, 13-0 Michigan/Ohio State, and then the upset is more likely to happen in one of the other conference championship games. If that does happen, then the playoffs are going to be easy to figure out because whoever lost between Clemson, TCU, and USC gets left out and the other two make it in at 13-0 or 12-1. Now, what's more likely than the chaotic upset city is all the games follow chalk and we're stuck debating between 12-1 Clemson and 12-1 USC, and, to me, that's not a bad place to be in. It will suck for whoever doesn't make it, and people will cry for expansion, but this will be what, the 2nd actual time a 5th team had a case for making the playoffs? It doesn't happen frequently enough to actually worry about.
Point is, teams need to earn their way into the playoffs and we shouldn't just give teams mulligans because we think they are talented. A team like Tennessee had their shot and lost to UGA. It ended up not mattering because they came back down to reality and lost to South Carolina also, but what is next? Are people going to sit here and act like the loser of Michigan/Ohio State still deserve a chance to be in the playoffs? Are we going to say UGA still gets in even if they lose to LSU?
What happens if UGA goes 13-0 and gets the #1 seed then loses the semi-final game? Do we just give them mulligan and allow them to play for the championship anyways? Yea, I am being facetious, but that's because there are way too many people out there that really love to hand out mulligans to all of these teams. What happens on the field needs to matter more than anything.“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
― PlatoComment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
Agreed.
Let's say it's all chalk from here on out. Ohio State beats Michigan in a close game, Georgia and TCU both win out. So Georgia, Ohio State and TCU are in.
Why is Michigan eliminated for losing at Ohio State while Clemson gets a pass for losing to Notre Dame in a noncompetitive game? Michigan would have a better loss than Clemson and I'd argue Michigan's win over Penn State trumps any of Clemson's wins.
And even if we eliminate Michigan, how is there even a debate between Clemson and USC? Clemson has a terrible loss and would have one win (UNC) over a CFP Top 25 team. USC has a tough loss (on a 2-point conversion) at Utah and would have CFP Top 25 wins over Oregon State, UCLA, whoever it plays in the Pac 12 title game and, oh yeah, that Notre Dame team that throttled Clemson.
Let's say it's chalk other than LSU upsets Georgia. So Ohio State and TCU are in. USC is likely the third team in for the reasons listed above. That leaves Clemson and LSU for the final spot since we're eliminating teams that didn't win their conference.
So we either reward Clemson for running through a mediocre ACC while giving them a pass for Notre Dame. Or we give LSU two mulligans (FSU and UT). Meanwhile Georgia (arguably has the two best wins of the season) and Michigan are out.
I think the conference championship game is my biggest issue. Georgia has proven itself to be the best team in the SEC this year and is a lock for the playoff. If you made winning your conference a requirement, then Georgia has nothing to gain and everything to lose by playing that extra game (ask 2017 Auburn how it feels about that). Meanwhile, LSU gets a mulligan for Tennessee, and has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
I'd be a lot more open to a conference championship requirement if all conferences were 10 teams with a nine-game conference schedule and no championship game. But we know that's never going to happen.Comment
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Re: Week 12 Discussion
I feel like this sums up Clemson perfectly. Until UNC lost to Tech last week, it had pretty much the same resume as Clemson, yet the Heels weren't sniffing the playoff.Comment
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