I would recommend the book Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won to anyone interested in how sports fans and coaches limit their understanding of the game by clinging to conventional knowledge.
That said, I don't find the success rates to converting 4th downs in Madden to be off. As I mentioned above, in MUT and DC, the short quarters do mean more times when going for it happen, but often, gamers overcompensate and and do this too often. These guys give you extra possessions.
What happens is many guys get pissed and screw up their defense, panicking when trying to defend 4th and long. But conservative play calling works, and by this time, you usually know what an opponent's bread and butter plays are.
And the fake punts and FGs have absolutely awful success rates, even if you fail to defend them with safe formations. At least the new PAT rule has eliminated almost 100% of fake PATs, as getting 15 yards is almost impossible, as opposed to just needing two.
what is interesting, every single time discussions like this come up in gaming forums, no one has data that supports their contention that it is easy to convert on 4th and whatever. I know that I don't feel comfortable going for it on anything more than 4th and 3. The defense just held me to 7 or less yards on three plays.
This isn't about reality, though. Sim gamers are less focused on completion, and more focused on the art of the game, so that it looks right. And by right, they mean exactly what you see on Sunday. But to do that, they need to be able to call plays as well as the guys on Sundays. Many often fail because they don't do this.
All I can tell you is that from my experience playing MUT and DC, I have found the guys going for it on 4th and long and using fake kicks to be easy to beat, unless they are doing it from positions on the field that make sense. For me, once I get to my own 40 yard line, I consider 4th and short more often.
But it also seems most of the critics of how people play online comes from people that don't actually play online. They just repeat what has been said for years, ignoring how much better the game has become, especially in limiting money plays.
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