Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Ratings

[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Technique is part of game speed, yes I agree with this. Part of your formula however, is not. Getting out of the blocks is one of the most important part of a 40 yet has no place in football. By using a 40 as gospel (40=x rating) you are starting with bad information as some guys can't figure out the start as well as others. So if you take two guys who are dead even standing up then put them in blocks one may have a decided advantage, however on a football field it doesn't exist.

We have kind of derailed the thread, so I'm going to leave it at that. I will say there is a reason going forward though draft classes generated in CFM won't have one for one speed to combine ratings.

Exactly. The scale I wanted was for consistency. Calculation of "game speed" and deduction/addition is all relative, which is the beauty of roster creation, if done correctly. If you're like me, and simply want consistency and do not want to watch tape to add that extra speed point, use would be found in this. A one-for-one scale should be a solid foundation, not a gospel. But at the same time, if Peyton Manning ran a 3.43 and Ryan Leaf ran a 3.43, I pose the question of "how far can the distinction go before it becomes unreasonable?"

As for derailing the thread, this conversation needs to be had, because intellect is gained in no greater significance than in argument. I see both sides. As I said, I wanted to do the statistical analysis for consistency. But too much variation makes combine numbers useless if it's solely rated off "game speed". I believe a combination of both is needed to create a perfect roster.

[underdog13]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Huh interesting stuff. According to the graph's I would have

71 Speed
55 Strength
72 Jumping
69 Agility
84 Acceleration

Quality JV talent right there

[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Huh interesting stuff. According to the graph's I would have

71 Speed
55 Strength
72 Jumping
69 Agility
84 Acceleration

Quality JV talent right there

I know I'd be quite worse, only stat I can name off hand is 65 strength, haha. Thanks for checking it out.

[87Birdman]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

I don't think you can have a straight 1 to 1 ratio with 40 times and speed rating. Because I would ask this question.

So player A runs a 4.35 40 and so does player B. Now player B has a faster 10 yard split than player A. But yet both finished with the same time. This tells me player A had a higher top speed bit takes longer to get their while player B is slower but has a better acceleration.

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[Hooe]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

I don't think you can have a straight 1 to 1 ratio with 40 times and speed rating. Because I would ask this question.

So player A runs a 4.35 40 and so does player B. Now player B has a faster 10 yard split than player A. But yet both finished with the same time. This tells me player A had a higher top speed bit takes longer to get their while player B is slower but has a better acceleration.

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In this case you're looking at a situation where Player B indeed has a better initial burst (better ACC).

However, the reason for Player A's ability to catch up is unclear with this info. Player B could either have lower maximum velocity than Player A (lower SPD) or a lower ability to maintain his maximum velocity (lower STA, though Madden players don't get tired as quickly as real players do even with STA set at zero).

To determine this with certainty you'd need the 10, 20, and 40 split times. With these in hand you can do a bit of calculus on them and figure out the moment in time with maximum velocity for each player, along with the rates of change in velocity over time.

[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

I don't think you can have a straight 1 to 1 ratio with 40 times and speed rating. Because I would ask this question.

So player A runs a 4.35 40 and so does player B. Now player B has a faster 10 yard split than player A. But yet both finished with the same time. This tells me player A had a higher top speed bit takes longer to get their while player B is slower but has a better acceleration.

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In this instance, player A would have lower Acceleration than player B. They both have the same "top speed", but player B reaches it quicker than player A does. It would not factor into speed itself, besides time taken to reach the top speed.

[briz1046]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

In this instance, player A would have lower Acceleration than player B. They both have the same "top speed", but player B reaches it quicker than player A does. It would not factor into speed itself, besides time taken to reach the top speed.

This is incorrect sorry
If top speeds are equal , higher ACC would mean faster time , ignoring stamina
Thus if 40 times are equal but ACCs differ so MUST top speed again ignoring stamina

[Sajiky]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

"Game speed" isn't a real thing. A player doesn't have slower straight-line speed by some arbitrary amount or cut more sluggishly solely because he puts on a set of pads and a helmet.

Actually track speed can be quite different. On the field with pads helmet etc. does change things. Ball carriers in particular keeping a football tucked to prevent fumbles changes running technique a lot. I'd even go so far as to say some people get an extra burst simply due to the act of the chase (in particular being chased). It's on grass or astroturf instead of a track, all these things make minute subtle differences, but when you consider the fastest players are fairly close to each other in speed small differences matter.

Even sprinters on tracks have variances in their times based on small differences in conditions. So with all the added variables during a game, football speed is definitely different from track speed.

[Browns_Fan_30]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Awesome work Zacification! I had messed around with something like this before but your results are much more complete. I will for sure use this with drafts classes in my CFM. One question i have is if nonlinear regression lines give better correlation coefficients. It seems like your jumping data is more logarithmic/exponential. Thanks again! (I'm bookmarking this page)

[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

If I can find an exponential regression calculator, I will gladly input the data, as I believe I have it stored.

If not, I'll whip out the TI-83 tomorrow and do it the hard way.

Even though I still believe linear is the way to go, better to have the extra data.

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[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

So google sheets is absolutely terrible, and the =logest command does not work whatsoever, and the scatterplot feautre only shows counts (for example, 7 people ran a 4.55, when I want the x,y coordinate). If anyone has X-Cel and wouldn't mind copying the data to it and seeing if a =logest command would work, that would be greatly appreciated.

RAW DATA: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Old Man Nathy]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

This is awesome work. Have you managed to figure out what the broad jump is for?

Also, I have a theory about agility, in that 3 cone time and a player's height/weight impact it. For example, a 6'6, 230 pounder running a 7 second 3 cone would have a lower agility rating than a 5'8, 170 pounder running the 3 cone in the same time.

[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Old Man Nathy,

That theory actually makes sense, as a 6'6'' person takes way longer strides. The only issue is finding what I should deduct of agility based on height alone. This still may not make sense, however, as they are covering the same distance in the same time, and I don't know if Madden takes strides into consideration. As such, it will remain untouched until further notice, but your point remains valid.

I'm also not sure of what the broad jump may be for, as I have the Vertical Jump tied with jumping. I might be able to find a piece of data where it is Vert+Broad, Vert+ (-Broad), Vert(Broad), or Vert/Broad and see how that would work into a jumping rating.

Using that same theory, I could also tie 10, 20, and 60 yard shuttles to factor into acceleration for a more precise rating. Also, I could do the same with 10 and 20 yard dashes, for more precise speed.

I JUST FOUND THE BALANCE BETWEEN THE PERFECT CORRELATION PoV AND THE DYNAMIC GAME SPEED PoV.

I will work on this whenever time provides.

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[Lokiness]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

I remember a message in Madden 16 explaining that Broad Jump gave a clue about the Jump skill of the player, but aswell his Strength.
From what I observed on Madden 16 Broad Jump was roughly 80% about Jump and 20% about Strength.

Hope this helps.

And this is fantastic work by the way, really great input !

[zacification1]

Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Finished exponential. DEFINITELY sticking with linear.