Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

gotcha..were those combine numbers tho?

Yes they are.

[angels eclipse7]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

kushmir: make sure to post that blog article on here when it is up.

dceb: what would you guys rate fujita? My taste is a 77.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

kushmir: make sure to post that blog article on here when it is up.

dceb: what would you guys rate fujita? My taste is a 77.

Already stated this in an earlier post. He is presently an 87.

[Kushmir]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

i'll submit that you know more about scouting than me but we'll agree to disagree on this one. fujita was strongside in N.O, right?

i just don't see it. in 2007 he allowed 22 rec and 71% completion rate for a rating of 123.5. in 2008 it was 17-73.9-51.0 last year? 19-73.1-98.2 but that isn't my issue. fujita largely gave you 70 tackles, 1 sack, less than 1 pick, 2 FF's and 2 passes defensed the past three years...average--to me he's the perfect example of an average LB. the defense he played on was below average--and he simply didn't impact gameplans. when you couple in the fact that he ranked below a player like Chris Gocong in LB rankings each of the three years? YIKES...i'm a HUGE eagles fan and i can tell you that Gocong was an average LB at best. great at setting the edge, eating up blocks and stopping the run--below average just about everywhere else (especially tackling in space) its part of the reason he's in CLEVELAND. the defense needed an upgrade.

gocong 70, fujita 72.

using combine stats may work for you but there are so many workout warriors that train specifically to excel at drills that I disregard most of that stuff. there are just too many great athletes who weren't good football players (the ghost of mike mamula looms large in philly) and average combine guys (jerry rice) who knew how to play the game. then there's the fact that combine numbers are without pads and don't reflect what a player can do 3-5 years in...can player A still run a 4.3 with pads on? what about after knee surgery? or when he has to navigate blockers?

i agree the combine can be used as a baseline to judge the level of an athlete--it can't judge football acumen and potential tho.

here's an article listing of some of the best combine performances of the century...many of these guys are average football players. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/3...entury#page/11

and i'm pretty sure you've heard of the recently retired scott young (held the combine record for bench presses before it was broken last year) he also ran a 5.03 40 yard dash, had a 36" vertical jump and ran a 4.37 sec. pro agility shuttle. largely a wasted draft pick...we kept him on the roster for 3 years and he retired at 27 after stints in Cleveland and Denver.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

i'll submit that you know more about scouting than me but we'll agree to disagree on this one. fujita was strongside in N.O, right?

i just don't see it. in 2007 he allowed a 22 rec and 71% completion rate for a rating of 123.5. in 2008 it was 17-73.9-51.0 last year? 19-73.1-98.2 but that isn't my issue. fujita largely gave you 70 tackles, 1 sack, less than 1 pick, 2 FF's and 2 passes defensed the past three years...below average. so was the defense he played on--and he simply didn't impact gameplans and when you couple in the fact that he ranked below a player like Chris Gocong in LB rankings each of the three years? YIKES...i'm a HUGE eagles fan and i can tell you that Gocong was an average LB at best. great at setting the edge, eating up blocks and stopping the run--below average just about everywhere else (especially tackling in space) its part of the reason he's in CLEVELAND. the defense needed an upgrade.

gocong 70, fujita 72.

using combine stats may work for you but there are so many workout warriors that train specifically to excel at drills that I disregard most of that stuff. there are just too many great athletes who weren't good football players (the ghost of mike mamula looms large in philly) and average combine guys (jerry rice) who knew how to play the game. then there's the fact that combine numbers are without pads and don't reflect what a player can do 3-5 years in...can player A still run a 4.3 with pads on? what about after knee surgery? or when he has to navigate blockers?

i agree the combine can be used as a baseline to judge the level of an athlete--it can't judge football acumen and potential tho.

here's an article listing of some of the best combine performances of the century...many of these guys are average football players. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/3...entury#page/11

The combine numbers are still highly valuable when evaluating the physical attributes of a player. Are physical attributes measured in Madden 11? If they are, then you have to use the hard data to represent the player accurately. Oh wait, they ARE! That's what those SPD, ACC, AGI, STR, and JMP ratings are for! Being able to make every tackle or catch every ball on a field does not make you faster as the guys at EA would like to believe. Hey Larry Fitz just had a 100 catch season! Let's up his speed even though we know it should only be around an 85! See what I mean? If those ratings were not part of the rating system then we wouldn't use them...but since they are we have to use the best data we have to calculate them.

As for Fujita, it's not just stats that matter here. Its also his ability as a football player and athlete. I will say it again...ratings are NEVER, EVER synonymous with stats. Sometimes stats match the player...sometimes they don't. That is why I would defer to scouting data for 9/10 of my information. Now if you like guys being boosted because of stats...then use what the EA guys are giving you because it is quite obvious they don't use scouting data for anything.

And I think you should understand the real correlation between great skill and NFL success. Sure you can spout off a few guys who had less talent than that guy who ran a 4.2 and became an NFL great...but for every one of those players there are THOUSANDS every year who don't have the physical ability to even make an NFL roster. Because the guys who run under 4.40 is a short list, you have to take a chance on them even if a guy who runs a 4.80 may have better football sense...the guy who runs 4.80 will KILL you at a skill position. Chad Reuter wrote a great article about it a few years ago...I will see if I can find it.

[Kushmir]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

oh you knooow i don't believe in that boosting. i just think there has to be a happy medium. fitz beats people with superior positioning, route running, hands and leaping ability. he's not slow by any means...but a speed burner? NEVER.

i'm just scared some workout warrior is gonna set the combine on fire and come into madden with ratings that aren't based on anything he does on the football field. bad..bad...bad...

and i'm a BIG proponent of Madden players "beating you" with the tools they have in reality. but to me there's no substitute for production...i see a guy like thomas jones with 5 straight seasons with 1100+ yards rated lower than Cedric Benson (he has one) and i shake my head...

i think it comes down to you being a SCOUTING guy and me being a PRODUCTION guy. most of the times we have ratings that are largely similar...every once in awhile the DIFFER totally. i'm cool with that...again, these are just my opinions.

i look at all the measurable data and just can't find anything that would suggest Fujita deserves a rating i'd give Joey Porter. everything about him just screams average to me...Porter went to MIA and made their defense better...Fujita went to N.O and they stayed largely the same...below average.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

Porter went to MIA and made their defense better...Fujita went to N.O and they stayed largely the same...below average.

You will run into problems if you try to rate guys based on what team they play on. This is where you run into EA's "Super Bowl Boost". Players are not rated as units in Madden...they are rated as individuals, so the process for player evaluation should be done as such.

[Kushmir]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

agreed...and you knoooow how i feel about superbowl "boosts" (heck i made that term up )

what i do is just use extra data like that as intangibles, for small enhancements...for example while i player like deion branch might be a 77 by the numbers, stuff like all-pro team, superbowl and the like may push him up to 79...nothing like that foolishness they did with Bethea (rating an 82 player a 92)

again...its just a difference in philosophy. no biggee.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

agreed...and you knoooow how i feel about superbowl "boosts" (heck i made that term up )

what i do is just use extra data like that as intangibles, for small enhancements...for example while i player like deion branch might be a 77 by the numbers, stuff like all-pro team, superbowl and the like may push him up to 79...nothing like that foolishness they did with Bethea (rating an 82 player a 92)

again...its just a difference in philosophy. no biggee.

Man that Bethea rating really bugs me. I guess the thing with safeties is that they can sometimes gain a lot of picks because QBs will throw often into a place they do not respect very much.

[angels eclipse7]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

I don't really understand Fujita at 87. He was very under rated for 2 years, but last year he was really unimpressive. That is why I have him at 77. He has shown to be a very good starter, but last year he proved to be a replaceable mediocre starter.

[SA1NT401]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

Maddens ratings have been FUBAR since next gen came.....Like a few have said...There shouldnt be more than 5-10 90++ OVR players in the entire game let alone 5-10 in every single position.

One of the many reason ALL players feel identical. This has been discussed at nausium for years.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

I don't really understand Fujita at 87. He was very under rated for 2 years, but last year he was really unimpressive. That is why I have him at 77. He has shown to be a very good starter, but last year he proved to be a replaceable mediocre starter.

The primary reasons he is rated that high is:

1) His athleticism, which makes up 4 of the 15 attributes used to rate a player. Here is how he graded out in those categories:

STR: 70
AGI: 79
SPD: 81
ACC: 86

2) His AWR is an 85 based on his experience as a player.

3) He had only 3 missed tackles last season, tied for 13th among all OLBs. In 2008 he was 26th, and 22nd in 2007. This shows a stark improvement in his tackling ability.

4) His history as a top cover LB in 2007 and 2008. Now consider 2009 when many teams were having to pass a ton to catch up to that NO offense...just something to consider.

5) His 6 QB pressures in 2009 was tied for 8th among OLBs last season...a stat he has never been worse than 12th in the last 3 seasons.

Considering his athleticism, AWR, cover skills, and strong tackling ability, it should be no wonder why he graded out well.

[angels eclipse7]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

The primary reasons he is rated that high is:

1) His athleticism, which makes up 4 of the 15 attributes used to rate a player. Here is how he graded out in those categories:

STR: 70
AGI: 79
SPD: 81
ACC: 86

2) His AWR is an 85 based on his experience as a player.

3) He had only 3 missed tackles last season, tied for 13th among all OLBs. In 2008 he was 26th, and 22nd in 2007. This shows a stark improvement in his tackling ability.

4) His history as a top cover LB in 2007 and 2008. Now consider 2009 when many teams were having to pass a ton to catch up to that NO offense...just something to consider.

5) His 6 QB pressures in 2009 was tied for 8th among OLBs last season...a stat he has never been worse than 12th in the last 3 seasons.

Considering his athleticism, AWR, cover skills, and strong tackling ability, it should be no wonder why he graded out well.

Okay all good points. But where do you get his speed/acceleration attributes from? Is it his combine numbers? Because at his age, he has surely slowed down some.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

Okay all good points. But where do you get his speed/acceleration attributes from? Is it his combine numbers? Because at his age, he has surely slowed down some.

The combine numbers are a base. I have a good friend who sent me an algorithm that is used to help determine the average amount of change in a player's speed based on wear and tear for an NFL player. RBs (obviously) show the steepest amount of decline, but it varies by position. The population mean decline is .03s per season attained in the NFL since being drafted. But like I said, this varies greatly by position.

[tlc12576]

Re: Player Attribute Inflation...AGAIN!

The combine numbers are a base. I have a good friend who sent me an algorithm that is used to help determine the average amount of change in a player's speed based on wear and tear for an NFL player. RBs (obviously) show the steepest amount of decline, but it varies by position. The population mean decline is .03s per season attained in the NFL since being drafted. But like I said, this varies greatly by position.

DCEBB, I respect the way you explain your thought process and calculations when creating ratings. Even if I dont agree with every number you come up with, it's cool that you interact. IMO, this alone should be enough for EA to at least add you to the ratings process.

One of my biggest gripes with EA concerning Madden is what seems like a "because I said so" response to so many questions. Almost like who are we to question them and they know what's best for a NFL football game. People can disagree but still respect each other in most situations if things are explained and discussed openly.

However, so often people seem unwilling to explain themselves for fear of one thing or another. I really enjoy the way you discuss your ratings calculations and are so willing to entertain or even incorporate ideas from others.

That said, has anyone been able to calculate how NCAA Football player ratings translate to Madden when importing draft classes? If someone could figure that out, maybe that can be used as a work around to the only potential problem I see with ratings adjustments. I think these ratings will be more to my liking than EA's but I just dont want the draft classes tainting it. If this equation can be solved and the NCAA Football ratings adjusted accordingly, then I would only use imported draft classes every year.

Hopefully, we all succeed in showing EA a better way foward so we can "Quantum Leap" Madden back into the present. Maybe, in the year 2011 when we get flying cars and robot butlers, they can even add editable ratings along with imported draft classes to online franchise.