**The TRUTH Behind "Free Agents 2013"**
I'm making one simple thread to finally distinguish fact from fiction facing the "Free Agent 2013" problem.
Overview:
The "free agent 2013" problem has been defined as a tendency by the CPU to leave high caliber players (caliber being determined by overall rating) in the free agent list unsigned for multiple years. Player include, but are not limited to, Troy Tulowitzki, Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, just to name a few.
The cause of this tendency is speculated but not official. Some probable factors include highly rated draft players in future year being paid too much money, too many A potential players leading to high salaries (which are undeserved), and misuse or miscalculation of budgets (possibly not expanding enough for player salary inflation). There may be other theories as well that were not mentioned
The Experiment:
I will run two different franchises through the year 2015. Both franchises will be 1 team control and will be with Detroit. All settings will be set to auto (contracts, trades, budgets, etc.). The draft will also be simulated as well. Default sliders will be used, just to keep all things equal. I am currently up to date in patches with v1.12.
Two different rosters will be used:
1) OSFMV1 25 Man Rosters 5-20 (which can be found on sports connect, also referred to as "Knights Rosters")
2) Latest SCEA roster update from 5-17
Through each year I will list the top 5 free agents on the list at the start of spring training and their overall letter grade from the scouting report screen. Some players may or may not be CPU created. These players will be indicated by a (CP) after the letter grade. This is to ease in confusion for players you may not recognize. Remember, it's letter grades that matter not names.
OSFMV1 25 Man Rosters 5-20
2011:
(1)Rodrigo Lopez (C)
(2)Luis Ayala (D)
(3)Randy Flores (D)
(4)Rondell Halliday (D)(CP)
(5)Wiley Javeri (D)(CP)
2012:
(1)Carlos Silva (C)
(2)Paul Maholm (C)
(3)Tim Schierholtz (D)(CP)
(4)Rich Rundles (D)
(5)Maxwell Heim (D)(CP)
2013:
(1)Matt Wieters (A)
(2)Kurt Suzuki (A)
(3)Justin Masterson (A)
(4)Edinson Volquez (B)
(5)Kyle Lohse (B)
2014:
(1)Nolan Reimold (A)
(2)Jay Bruce (A)
(3)Matt Laporta (A)
(4)Matt Wieters (A)
(5)Colby Rasmus (A)
2015:
(1)Buster Posey (A)
(2)Alcides Escobar (A)
(3)Jesus Montero (A)
(4)Jay Bruce (A)
(5)Matt Laporta (A)
Latest SCEA roster update from 5-17
2011:
(1)Yusmeiro Petit (C)
(2)Jeremy Bonderman (C)
(3)Ryan Freel (C)
(4)David Riske (C)
(5)Aaron Miles (D)
2012:
(1)Chad Bradford (D)
(2)Luis Ayala (D)
(3)Ramon Ortiz (D)(CP)
(4)Antione Brennan (D)(CP)
(5)Marcus McBeth (D)
2013:
(1)Leo Nunez (D)
(2)Ramon Ortiz (D)
(3)Chad Gaudin (D)
(4)Sito Nomura (D)(CP)
(5)Millard Bravo (D)(CP)
2014:
(1)A. Fortunato (A)(CP)
(2)Cole Willingham (B)(CP)
(3)Ricky Nolasco (B)
(4)Alden Han (B)(CP)
(5)Johnny Cueto (B)
(I'm only going to 2014, I just don't have the time to be simming as it goes VERY slow in the off-season)
Possible Errors:
The franchise does not take into consideration variable effects. These include retirement, injuries (also retirements from injuries), trades, and others. Each franchise will play differently and this experiment will possibly need a much larger sample size. But for a simple generalization, this should suffice.
Conclusion:
(1) Knights Rosters: Well the free agent problem is clearly there in Knights Rosters so far. I should also note that in 2014 the first 10 (not just 5) players had filled rating bars indicating a 100 Ovr. The top 30 players had no less than a (B) overall. It also seems like potential is a little TOO strong showing Colby Rasmus and Cameron Maybin having 100 Ovr and A scouting reports. Also, a CPU created player (1B) had an overall of 100 and was 22 years old. The free agent pool seemed considerably larger as well by at least 25-50 players. By 2015 things got REALLY ridiculous. The top 15 players in the F.A. pool had 100 overalls. This leads me to beleive there is something seriously wrong with player training/potential. Even if the free agent problem is fixed, there would be an overwhelming amount of 100 ovr players; at least 3 for each team, maybe more. Also, the same 5-10 players from the previous years F.A. pool have remained there. But once again, these are with Knights Rosters (OSFMV1 25 Man Rosters 5-20), once I test the SCEA rosters I might get a totally different result.
My suggestion, from what I've seen so far is to use Knights Rosters ONLY for Exhibition games. These rosters do no good in season or franchise. This is only my opinion based on the data, in the end the choice is yours.
(2) Current SCEA Rosters: The SCEA rosters are an improvement over Knights Rosters. But later on, once in 2014, a mass of (B) overall players flooded free agency including one (A) overall player. This leads me to beleive that SCEA rosters only delayed the free agent effect by one or two years. As someone had already stated, the rosters are nothing but a "band-aid" for a much bigger problem. All I can say is use the SCEA rosters for a franchise as they will have better results.
Other Thoughts:
Feedback is extremely encouraged. I hope this formal thread gives some good information to SCEA (if they're looking) on what problems exist in franchise and possibly how to correct them for upcoming roster updates or next years game.
I recommend as well for Franchise Mode to turn OFF trading until July 1st and then turn it OFF again on August 1st (and then maybe even turn waivers off). This is due to the CPU making numerous trades before and after the deadline. Leaving only one month to trade helps consolidate the numbers.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns let me know. Most of all, THANKS FOR READING!
**UPDATE** 8/4
I beleive I found a plausible solution through some testing I've done. The only caveat; it's NOT in franchise mode. The best way to play with good results, and thus no 2013 problem, is to play in SEASON mode. I beleive season mode works well for several reasons:
(1) There are considerbly less players to deal with than in franchise; 40 man rosters only as opposed to 3 minor league rosters
(2) Less players equals more room to sign good players; no experieng single-a contracts leading to rediculous extensions.
(3) No other money worries such as transportation, medical staff, concessions, etc. Money goes straight to the players.
(4) Player potential works well because now there is NO training you have to assign, players progress "naturally". So no more rediculous amount of 100 ovr players.
Give Knights roster a try or the latest SCEA update and you shouldn't have a problem for seasons to come. Even try putting it on 30 team control and basically let the CPU take control and IF you should see a man in free agency that shouldn't be, sign him with his original team! Let me know how this works out for you!
Overview:
The "free agent 2013" problem has been defined as a tendency by the CPU to leave high caliber players (caliber being determined by overall rating) in the free agent list unsigned for multiple years. Player include, but are not limited to, Troy Tulowitzki, Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, just to name a few.
The cause of this tendency is speculated but not official. Some probable factors include highly rated draft players in future year being paid too much money, too many A potential players leading to high salaries (which are undeserved), and misuse or miscalculation of budgets (possibly not expanding enough for player salary inflation). There may be other theories as well that were not mentioned
The Experiment:
I will run two different franchises through the year 2015. Both franchises will be 1 team control and will be with Detroit. All settings will be set to auto (contracts, trades, budgets, etc.). The draft will also be simulated as well. Default sliders will be used, just to keep all things equal. I am currently up to date in patches with v1.12.
Two different rosters will be used:
1) OSFMV1 25 Man Rosters 5-20 (which can be found on sports connect, also referred to as "Knights Rosters")
2) Latest SCEA roster update from 5-17
Through each year I will list the top 5 free agents on the list at the start of spring training and their overall letter grade from the scouting report screen. Some players may or may not be CPU created. These players will be indicated by a (CP) after the letter grade. This is to ease in confusion for players you may not recognize. Remember, it's letter grades that matter not names.
OSFMV1 25 Man Rosters 5-20
2011:
(1)Rodrigo Lopez (C)
(2)Luis Ayala (D)
(3)Randy Flores (D)
(4)Rondell Halliday (D)(CP)
(5)Wiley Javeri (D)(CP)
2012:
(1)Carlos Silva (C)
(2)Paul Maholm (C)
(3)Tim Schierholtz (D)(CP)
(4)Rich Rundles (D)
(5)Maxwell Heim (D)(CP)
2013:
(1)Matt Wieters (A)
(2)Kurt Suzuki (A)
(3)Justin Masterson (A)
(4)Edinson Volquez (B)
(5)Kyle Lohse (B)
2014:
(1)Nolan Reimold (A)
(2)Jay Bruce (A)
(3)Matt Laporta (A)
(4)Matt Wieters (A)
(5)Colby Rasmus (A)
2015:
(1)Buster Posey (A)
(2)Alcides Escobar (A)
(3)Jesus Montero (A)
(4)Jay Bruce (A)
(5)Matt Laporta (A)
Latest SCEA roster update from 5-17
2011:
(1)Yusmeiro Petit (C)
(2)Jeremy Bonderman (C)
(3)Ryan Freel (C)
(4)David Riske (C)
(5)Aaron Miles (D)
2012:
(1)Chad Bradford (D)
(2)Luis Ayala (D)
(3)Ramon Ortiz (D)(CP)
(4)Antione Brennan (D)(CP)
(5)Marcus McBeth (D)
2013:
(1)Leo Nunez (D)
(2)Ramon Ortiz (D)
(3)Chad Gaudin (D)
(4)Sito Nomura (D)(CP)
(5)Millard Bravo (D)(CP)
2014:
(1)A. Fortunato (A)(CP)
(2)Cole Willingham (B)(CP)
(3)Ricky Nolasco (B)
(4)Alden Han (B)(CP)
(5)Johnny Cueto (B)
(I'm only going to 2014, I just don't have the time to be simming as it goes VERY slow in the off-season)
Possible Errors:
The franchise does not take into consideration variable effects. These include retirement, injuries (also retirements from injuries), trades, and others. Each franchise will play differently and this experiment will possibly need a much larger sample size. But for a simple generalization, this should suffice.
Conclusion:
(1) Knights Rosters: Well the free agent problem is clearly there in Knights Rosters so far. I should also note that in 2014 the first 10 (not just 5) players had filled rating bars indicating a 100 Ovr. The top 30 players had no less than a (B) overall. It also seems like potential is a little TOO strong showing Colby Rasmus and Cameron Maybin having 100 Ovr and A scouting reports. Also, a CPU created player (1B) had an overall of 100 and was 22 years old. The free agent pool seemed considerably larger as well by at least 25-50 players. By 2015 things got REALLY ridiculous. The top 15 players in the F.A. pool had 100 overalls. This leads me to beleive there is something seriously wrong with player training/potential. Even if the free agent problem is fixed, there would be an overwhelming amount of 100 ovr players; at least 3 for each team, maybe more. Also, the same 5-10 players from the previous years F.A. pool have remained there. But once again, these are with Knights Rosters (OSFMV1 25 Man Rosters 5-20), once I test the SCEA rosters I might get a totally different result.
My suggestion, from what I've seen so far is to use Knights Rosters ONLY for Exhibition games. These rosters do no good in season or franchise. This is only my opinion based on the data, in the end the choice is yours.
(2) Current SCEA Rosters: The SCEA rosters are an improvement over Knights Rosters. But later on, once in 2014, a mass of (B) overall players flooded free agency including one (A) overall player. This leads me to beleive that SCEA rosters only delayed the free agent effect by one or two years. As someone had already stated, the rosters are nothing but a "band-aid" for a much bigger problem. All I can say is use the SCEA rosters for a franchise as they will have better results.
Other Thoughts:
Feedback is extremely encouraged. I hope this formal thread gives some good information to SCEA (if they're looking) on what problems exist in franchise and possibly how to correct them for upcoming roster updates or next years game.
I recommend as well for Franchise Mode to turn OFF trading until July 1st and then turn it OFF again on August 1st (and then maybe even turn waivers off). This is due to the CPU making numerous trades before and after the deadline. Leaving only one month to trade helps consolidate the numbers.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns let me know. Most of all, THANKS FOR READING!
**UPDATE** 8/4
I beleive I found a plausible solution through some testing I've done. The only caveat; it's NOT in franchise mode. The best way to play with good results, and thus no 2013 problem, is to play in SEASON mode. I beleive season mode works well for several reasons:
(1) There are considerbly less players to deal with than in franchise; 40 man rosters only as opposed to 3 minor league rosters
(2) Less players equals more room to sign good players; no experieng single-a contracts leading to rediculous extensions.
(3) No other money worries such as transportation, medical staff, concessions, etc. Money goes straight to the players.
(4) Player potential works well because now there is NO training you have to assign, players progress "naturally". So no more rediculous amount of 100 ovr players.
Give Knights roster a try or the latest SCEA update and you shouldn't have a problem for seasons to come. Even try putting it on 30 team control and basically let the CPU take control and IF you should see a man in free agency that shouldn't be, sign him with his original team! Let me know how this works out for you!
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