UFC 101: Declaration - August 8th in Philadelphia

[Wet Bandit]

Did a search and also scanned the last ten pages, apparently we don't have a thread for this. So here it is.

Official fight card:

Main Card Bouts:
-B.J. Penn (13-5-1; #3 Lightweight)* vs. Kenny Florian (12-3; #6 Lightweight)*
-Anderson Silva (24-4; #1 Middleweight)* vs. Forrest Griffin (18-5; #3 Light Heavyweight)*
-Amir Sadollah (5-0) vs. Johny Hendricks (5-0)
-Ricardo Almeida (10-3) vs. Kendall Grove (12-5)
-Kurt Pellegrino (13-4) vs. Josh Neer (25-7-1)

Preliminary Bouts:
-Aaron Riley (27-11-1) vs. Shane Nelson (12-3)
-Tamdan McCrory (11-2) vs. John Howard (11-4)
-Alessio Sakara (13-7) vs. Thales Leites (14-2)
-Matt Riddle (3-1) vs. Dan Cramer (3-1)
-George Sotiropoulos (11-3) vs. Rob Emerson (8-7)
-Jesse Lennox (10-1) vs. Danillo Villefort (9-2)

* Based on MMAWeekly World MMA Rankings

Honestly, I don't really see much of a way for Florian to win. Penn's biggest weakness is being outwrestled, and Florian's not gonna do that. I doubt Florian catches him in a submission or really out-strikes him. Maybe try and out-point Penn with the help of Penn wearing down in the later rounds?

Forrest doesn't have much of a chance, but he's a tough guy and he should be willing to swing, so he's at least got a puncher's chance. He should at least make it interesting.

[MC Fatigue]

I'm really looking forward to this one. I may have to actually order it.

Florian has plenty chance - he's a smart fighter, and he's got amazing technique. Penn is extremely overrated.

[goh]

KenFlo by TKO (due to cut) and the only other pick I'll make is Grove wins in a great fight.

Forrest had "no chance" against Shogun either and we know how that turned out so I won't pick that one. He's not a guy that's gonna be beaten before he even gets in there and flop on his *** the whole fight.

[Wet Bandit]

Quote: Originally Posted by Timmay

I'm really looking forward to this one. I may have to actually order it. Florian has plenty chance - he's a smart fighter, and he's got amazing technique. Penn is extremely overrated.

I'm not saying Florian's a bad fighter, I just think he has one of the worst skill sets possible to defeat Penn with. The way guys have been beating Penn is by getting him down and controlling him while avoiding submissions. Florian's not gonna take him down and control him, he's nowhere near the wrestler Hughes and St. Pierre are. So is he gonna submit him? Extremely unlikely. So he's got to out-strike him, but Penn's a better striker.

I think Florian's best chance to to crowd Penn and try and control him in the clinch and work some muay thai, but he's not a dominating physical presense, and it's not exactly easy to walk through Penn's jab.

[ex carrabba fan]

I just want to see how Penn's recovered.. he seemed like he took his last L really badly.. dude almost hung his gloves up for good.

If Silva can handle Forrest convincingly the P4P debate really heats up. Forrest is simply Hell.

[Wet Bandit]

Quote: Originally Posted by goh

KenFlo by TKO (due to cut) and the only other pick I'll make is Grove wins in a great fight. Forrest had "no chance" against Shogun either and we know how that turned out so I won't pick that one. He's not a guy that's gonna be beaten before he even gets in there and flop on his *** the whole fight.

But you really can't compare the Shogun that debuted in the UFC with the Silva that we've seen.

Forrest obviously has his striking and his heart. But is his striking that much better than James Irvin's or Rich Franklin's, two guys who couldn't touch Silva? Seriously, I'm a huge fan of Forrest, but I see absolutely no reason to think he doesn't get knocked out, even if it takes him longer to go down than it took some other guys. He's got a puncher's chance, and it's a relatively good puncher's chance, but I don't see him having much more of a chance than that unfortunately.

[sven]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wet Bandit

Honestly, I don't really see much of a way for Florian to win. Penn's biggest weakness is being outwrestled, and Florian's not gonna do that. I doubt Florian catches him in a submission or really out-strikes him. Maybe try and out-point Penn with the help of Penn wearing down in the later rounds?

Yeah pushing the pace and making BJ work as much as possible is Kenny's best bet. If he can wear BJ out I dont think a sub or TKO late in the fight are out of the question.

[allBthere]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wet Bandit

But you really can't compare the Shogun that debuted in the UFC with the Silva that we've seen. Forrest obviously has his striking and his heart. But is his striking that much better than James Irvin's or Rich Franklin's, two guys who couldn't touch Silva? Seriously, I'm a huge fan of Forrest, but I see absolutely no reason to think he doesn't get knocked out, even if it takes him longer to go down than it took some other guys. He's got a puncher's chance, and it's a relatively good puncher's chance, but I don't see him having much more of a chance than that unfortunately.

2 things. I don't want to predict a winner and that's why I'm so excited for this fight because I really don't know...but I think Forrest has a much bigger chance because Irvin is a bum...jk, but seriously forrest can SUSTAIN an attack - no one has really done this to silva, but forrest will. forrest is also a lot tougher than franklin imo. I think we might actually see Silva get slightly gassed/tired for the first time in the ufc.

second thing doesn't apply to you...

but Penn as much as I'd rather Florian to win (and he may) - penn has a great Jab...as does st.pierre, and it's so overlooked in MMA. In a striking match, the guy with the better jab usually does better. gsp showed alves what jabbing can do for you.

since there is no significant reach advantage, penn can work that thing and it will get through...a lot. I'm picking Penn to win because of the jab.