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Old 09-22-2019, 11:54 AM   #49
I hate you Norv
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: San Diego
Posts: 4,797
Re: TDawg3782's Madden 20 CFM Progression Tool

Originally Posted by Nza
This is exciting stuff.

I haven't yet had a chance to try it out, but a few questions:

- You've said a 1st overall pick could have a terrible potential rating effectively meaning he never progresses, and a 6th rounder could be a 99 one day like Brady. However, in general, is it more likely a 1st rounder has better potential than a 6th rounder?

It is weighted on the dev trait. So an X Factor has a better chance then a Superstar who has a better chance then a Star etc. Round drafted has no weight at all.

- If there's, say, a 3rd year player @ 80 OVR (so 4 more progression calculations left) when you adopt this system, could this player get to 99? or because they only had half of the progression points remaining when the system started, do they have an effective cap? Another example might be Wentz, who based on my calculations will be subject to 2 progressions with this system - can he ever become a 99 OVR QB?

He could but it would be difficult. I did account for this. The way it works is the player gets a potential like everyone else. But if he has two years left to progress he will only get the last part of the progression. So if he's an 80 and his potential is 95 (15 points) and his progression period looked like this 2/2/2/3/1/2/2/1 he would only get the last 4 (1/2/2/1). So it would be very hard for them to hit 99 ovr unless the numbers landed perfectly. The spread for each progression period is randomized so it could look like this 0/0/0/1/5/5/0/4. In that case he would get this (5/5/0/4). It just all depends.

- Is it possible to have an X-Factor with poor potential? Does it factor in to the potential calculations at all? E.g. in a CFM of mine, the Raiders drafted a speed DE in the 3rd round whose dev trait unlocked as an X-Factor, but he's low 70's overall. Could he get bad potential and just remain an X-Factor DE with low OVR?

As stated above dev trait is heavly weighted. Each dev trait has a floor. So if you get an X Factor he has the potential to be a great player for you. A Superstar will most likely be a solid starter. And so on. But Every dev trait can be a all pro.

- Do we have any answer for the scenario engine and it's inability to affect CPU rosters? it's really just the breakout player thing that concerns me as far as creating imbalance for human teams.

We've done extensive testing and the league distribution stays pretty consistent all the way through. We've do a handful of 30 year sims and they come out good. This progression system in my mind makes it much harder for the human because you can't cheat the system and gain extra XP to improve players. It's all about that potential rating. And that's hidden so you truly have no idea how good a player will be. And since the progression periods aren't linear you also can't guess how good they will get by how much the improved (or didn't) over a few progression periods.

- What about QBs like Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, Drew Brees? not exactly common but it happens somewhat consistently throughout the NFL for QBs in particular, that they might develop quite late.

Development is a strict first 4 year period. Maybe later down the line I could make this more dynamic but it would take a lot or work (basically rewriting the entire tool). So after 4 year they are done. I have just recently added a regression mod that will add more to the tool. It makes regression much more dynamic. Check out my post a few post up for an explanation on it.

- Is there an alternative to Excel that will work? like google sheets or something? As a comment, it would be great if the logic you have worked on was inbuilt into the franchise editor or came as its own executable that applied the changes to the franchise file (you would have to figure out where the store the player potentials though.... maybe that mostly useless personality rating or whatever it is).

No alternative to Excel. I've had other try different programs and they all get errors. It has to be the most current version of Excel as well. I don't have the technical skill to do something like make an executable to work with the franchise editor but that would be awesome.

Answer in bold above.
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