What up fellas. Gone are the days where I had the time to do detailed draft classes for both Madden and 2k. This year me and Dreece have decided to put our time and effort into 2k again. With that being said, I still have love for Madden and just wanted to see if you guys would be interested in a little "mini" project.
As I stated a couple years ago, the first round of the draft is very unpredictable and I dont feel like the Madden generated classes do a very good job replicating that. In a study of draft classes from 2010 to 2020, I found first round picks are busts approximately 31% of the time, average/ok approximately 25% of the time and a “homerun” the remaining 44% of the time.*There are also big time players that are drafted after the first round. The GOAT QB (Tom Brady) and a top 3 WR of the decade (Antonio Brown) were both sixth round picks. Russell Wison, Richard Sherman, Nick Chubb, Stefon Diggs, Zadarius Smith, Xavian Howard... All guys that are or have been near the top at their respective positions.
From what I've seen with the random generated classes, the first round is pretty much safe. It shouldn't be. You should have the fear that youre drafting Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. They also don't have many good offensive lineman prospects. I looked at three random classes in a row and the highest guard was a 71. There's gotta be a Quentin Nelson type prospect occasionally and at least some decent guys to rebuild when its time. Also, I may be nitpicking a bit but the risk of drafting a bust in the first round should differ depending on the position youre drafting. Below you can find how first rounders panned out per position over a ten year sample:
QB - Great/Good (28%), Average (33%), Bad/Bust (39%)
HB - Great/Good (42%), Average (20%), Bad/Bust (37%)
WR - Great/Good (40%), Average (34%), Bad/Bust (26%)
TE - Great/Good (30%), Average (50%), Bad/Bust (20%)
OTackle - Great/Good (36%), Average (34%), Bad/Bust (30%)
Guard - Great/Good (31%), Average (38%), Bad/Bust (32%)
Center - Great/Good (22%), Average (78%), Bad/Bust (0%)
DE - Great/Good (23%), Average (37%), Bad/Bust (40%)
DT - Great/Good (36%), Average (28%), Bad/Bust (36%)
OLB - Great/Good (38%), Average (26%), Bad/Bust (36%)
ILB - Great/Good (42%), Average (32%), Bad/Bust (26%)
CB - Great/Good (23%), Average (42%), Bad/Bust (35%)
Safety - Great/Good (35%), Average (38%), Bad/Bust (27%)
If I do this, I plan to make ten to fifteen classes. I wont be able to do scouting reports and names (Just going to stick with the names Madden generates unless its something dumb like "James James") but I will go over some ratings, make sure there are different types of players for each position and arrange the mock drafts to replicate the findings discussed above. Just wanted to see if anyone would be interested in this.
Oh yeah and just in case you didn't see the title, I'm on next gen XBox.
As I stated a couple years ago, the first round of the draft is very unpredictable and I dont feel like the Madden generated classes do a very good job replicating that. In a study of draft classes from 2010 to 2020, I found first round picks are busts approximately 31% of the time, average/ok approximately 25% of the time and a “homerun” the remaining 44% of the time.*There are also big time players that are drafted after the first round. The GOAT QB (Tom Brady) and a top 3 WR of the decade (Antonio Brown) were both sixth round picks. Russell Wison, Richard Sherman, Nick Chubb, Stefon Diggs, Zadarius Smith, Xavian Howard... All guys that are or have been near the top at their respective positions.
From what I've seen with the random generated classes, the first round is pretty much safe. It shouldn't be. You should have the fear that youre drafting Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. They also don't have many good offensive lineman prospects. I looked at three random classes in a row and the highest guard was a 71. There's gotta be a Quentin Nelson type prospect occasionally and at least some decent guys to rebuild when its time. Also, I may be nitpicking a bit but the risk of drafting a bust in the first round should differ depending on the position youre drafting. Below you can find how first rounders panned out per position over a ten year sample:
QB - Great/Good (28%), Average (33%), Bad/Bust (39%)
HB - Great/Good (42%), Average (20%), Bad/Bust (37%)
WR - Great/Good (40%), Average (34%), Bad/Bust (26%)
TE - Great/Good (30%), Average (50%), Bad/Bust (20%)
OTackle - Great/Good (36%), Average (34%), Bad/Bust (30%)
Guard - Great/Good (31%), Average (38%), Bad/Bust (32%)
Center - Great/Good (22%), Average (78%), Bad/Bust (0%)
DE - Great/Good (23%), Average (37%), Bad/Bust (40%)
DT - Great/Good (36%), Average (28%), Bad/Bust (36%)
OLB - Great/Good (38%), Average (26%), Bad/Bust (36%)
ILB - Great/Good (42%), Average (32%), Bad/Bust (26%)
CB - Great/Good (23%), Average (42%), Bad/Bust (35%)
Safety - Great/Good (35%), Average (38%), Bad/Bust (27%)
If I do this, I plan to make ten to fifteen classes. I wont be able to do scouting reports and names (Just going to stick with the names Madden generates unless its something dumb like "James James") but I will go over some ratings, make sure there are different types of players for each position and arrange the mock drafts to replicate the findings discussed above. Just wanted to see if anyone would be interested in this.
Oh yeah and just in case you didn't see the title, I'm on next gen XBox.
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