View Full Version : Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!
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Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 10:34 AM
Going through that list, maybe it's just me but it really looks like Coffee's play changed from day 2 to day 3.
Uh, duh?
Prior to role reveal, I was attempting to subtly hint at my role, while not being too aggravating to anyone. Don't exactly need to do that now.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 10:38 AM
And now we have our friend Dubb, who thankfully I have already partially recapped.
Dubb
95 -- Asks to be tested
96 -- Realizes only 1 test a day so thinks we shouldn't test him
100 -- Throws out first overall vote for saldana
111 -- Finds out that vote for saldana doesn't count
120 -- Attempts to vote for saldana
121 -- Really votes for saldana
183 --
Actually I think this hurts you a little in my book Hoopsguy. If you don't quite get the "brilliant" blurb, that leads me to believe you didn't get a simliar PM to what some of the rest of us got. It refers to us as simple, but brilliant . I didn't want to bring that up, but since it is already out in the open I see no problem with it.
What you quoted has nothing to do with that.
191 -- Reminds us all what a bitch it is to edit versus write
198 -- Finds my post stating that I am going to kill someone funny and wonders what everyone else is supposed to do
201 -- Tells me that I'm the man
220 -- Wonders if I'm in the game
223 -- Thanks Schmidty for confirming I'm in the game
254 -- Votes for JeeberD
271 -- Says it's a wasted vote to go after him. Jeebs is more likely convert.
280 -- Hates tornados (I am not making that up, I promise)
281 -- Tells us about the bad storm
382 -- Wants to get an original thing and thinks hoops is it
423 -- Wonders about testing today
424 -- Has the exact same wonder about testing today
425 -- Calls the board "Nothing but trouble"
433 -- Votes for hoopsguy with no explanation
439 -- Asks if I still am saying Qwik was a thing
442 -- Is not convinced by my logic
467 - "We haven't converted since Saldana just died."
470 - Understands a point Blade was making about a conversion of Raiders
497 - Responding to the use of "we" in 467 and explains that he was referring to all the players in the game. Compares voting for him to voting for a Green Party candidate
511 - Believes that either hoops or I is a Shitface. Ends with "Test me, show your stupidity."
513 - In response to mckerny thinking he has been converted
worst call in werewolf history. :) , have fun being wrong.
515 - In response to hoops
Actually I made my call to vote you early and figured everyone would see Saldana. Most of they day I wasn't checking in the werewolf thread so I didn't know what the vote count was until late in the day after the deadline.
Call it revisionist, call it what you want, but I tend to think the group as a whole is smart enough to pick up on post 185 where he made himself sound like a complete idiot.
Would I have changed my vote if I came back and saw it was close? Yes, but when I did come back I didn't take the time to dig through posts, and to be honest I'm playing this game very much on the fly which is not how I normally play so forgive me if I'm making bad judgement calls.
With all that said, I probably won't defend myself anymore today b/c if the group wants me tested I'm more than happy to be tested, it just won't get us anywhere. I think the best way would be to test either Barkeep or Hoops. One has no evidence to back up his claims and the other has cleared himself by using a certain term out of context.
555 - Claims Jeeber doesn't want to be tested, but that he doesn't care if he is
563 - Wishes the brilliant thing was never brought into play
564 - whatever you think. I won't be changing my vote, if I was a thing I would have reason to change my vote so I don't get tested. I have nothing to hide, please do vote for me, RA and McKerney are convinced I'm a thing. I find this interesting considering when it was close and he was in the thread he did NOT change his vote
567 - Thinks RA maybe was converted on N1
584 - Thinks the day has been wasted (this is on D2 pt 2)
603 - Says he wasn't really paying attention around deadline (post deadline pre-result on D2 pt 2)
604 - Realizes he messed up
607 - Says how crazy late voting was
613 - Says he's clean
620 - Says he's a scientist and would say more but Schmidty said not to
637 - Dubb revealed to be clean during testing
667 - Believes an analysis raiders posted is flawed. Votes for Raiders
711 - Leaving votes on RA. Believes CW might already be converted. Says how hard it is to trust people this game
794 - Believes RA would've been voted for sure w/o CW coming out. Thinks Blade is innocent as he voted for dubb only to break a tie
796 - Believes CW was the seer at one point and is now converted
799 - Believes again CW is trying to buy time with his reveal
862 - Speaks about his knowledge with fake reveals. Believes now would be a good time for CW to do so if RA was a Shitface
870 - Believes RA wants to go in worthless circles
878 - Thinks voting record is over rated. Says it is easy to have a great voting record as a wolf. My limited study of this last game confirms that having a bad voting record on Days 1 and 2 is no predictor of being a wolf.
882 - Thinks there have been 2 conversions
892 - Disagrees with st.cronin who says voting record has been useful in last two games. Says the wolves have been playing poorly
897 -
And if you must know, that is the reason I was voting for hoops earlier. He does play the role right and it was risk/reward. I thought everyone would catch on to saldana, but I wanted to show that hoops was the biggest threat. I thought i caught him, which I've changed my mind on that now, and if I did catch him, he knows how to play the role.
913 - Says that voting record for Day 2 pt 2 don't completely reflect people's feelings because of the crazy last minute voting
921 -
Again, I have no problem with the concept that CW was the seer, but I believe that either Blade, CW, Hoops, or Barkeep, or myself were converted last night. Of those CW has played today the most different and we have to believe the things are down to 2 and if RA is a thing he would have been the bandwagon today. That would have cut them to 1. If CW was the convert most likely it buys both of them a couple of days, and if one of them is killed they can always claim, "He was converted after the scan" or, "He was converted after the reveal."
What makes me not believe the reveal even further is the way it is revealed....
Sigh. Alright. I'm not going to let us waste a day on RA.
Make this real simple. Unless he was converted last night, which I doubt due to the pressure on him, RA is a scientist.
Why? I'm the seer. Or in this game, Geneticist.
Scans to date:
Day 1: Hoops (Clean)
Day 2: RA (Clean)
(No, didn't get a Night 0 scan)
Now. The Things can try and convert me if they wish, but they aren't gonna get a lot of mileage out of me, since I'm now common knowledge. I'll be posting my scan results every day. Convert me if you want, but the first time the Things try and use me to false scan someone, the secret will be out.
Also, if converted, if the Things decide to sacrifice one of their own to keep me "safe", I ask that you immediately vote me as the 2nd vote of the night.
'Course, it'd be better if I get bodyguarded.
So if he is converted he is going to rat on them? Bullshit, sugar coat it a little more to make people buy it.
Also, later in the day he says with 100% knowledge that he wouldn't know if RA was converted last night. BS, I doubt Schmidty would tell you, or even allow a seer role where you could scan someone on night 2 and them be a thing on day 3 and you not know it. Again, he is trying to position himself incase the bandwagon slips to RA.
923 - In response cronin points out that CW has said he wouldn't know if RA was converted
924 - Doesn't buy CW's reveal
926 - Willing to vote for CW or RA if the numbers are there
931 - Votes for CW
939 - Gives examples of how he believes CW has given the "Worst role reveal ever"
940 - Points out that he took all the examples from CW's psots
942 - Points out that if dubb has been converted since yesterday there is no way for CW to know it and thus doesn't buy CW's reveal
947 - In response to CW saying that he asked schmidty about the order of night actions
I've always known people running the game to give inside information that could effect the outcome of the game to certain players and not the whole group. How convenient for you make up another rule where schmidty can't clarify if he gave you inside information.
948 - Believes CW was a seer at one point but has been converted
949 - Clarifies 948 to say he has no doubt (reflected in my summary of the post)
953 -
vote me please, test me again, hell, test me the rest of the game, show how easily fooled you guys are. I love big circles. I would love for the bodyguard to reveal who he protected last night as long as it is either blade/hoops/dubb/coffee/barkeep, those are the 5 where I think the conversion came from. Seeing as how blade is thinking like me I'm confident it wasn't him, but coffee is pouring on the sugar coating like no other. Now I'll wait for RA to reveal he is the bodyguard....
956 - Asks about CW calling himself different names (geneticist vs scientist)
959 - Meaningless post
963 - Wants hoops to make his vote count
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 10:40 AM
In all seriousness, I'm hoping that whether or not you have finished that process that by mid-afternoon or so you will be willing/able to talk about your impressions of yesterday.
One trend I would look for is people who's general tenor of their posts change, as I believe both wolves right now are converts. So if you are able to establish some kind of baseline for the candidates on Day 1 and then look for shifts in voice/direction/purpose after the night action. If you are taking that approach then I think the total post capture is potentially very useful.
Well I am finding it once again very insightful and yes looking for tenor changes is one of the things I am trying to acomplish. I am finding that looking at individual people rather then simply rereading the thread to be a gigantic help. This proved true with saldana and while I have no firm conclusions yet, I'm finding it helpful again.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 10:40 AM
Also a note about my schedule: I am pretty free this morning but this afternoon I will only be able to do quick peeks at the thread before I am around consistently again for the last 2 hours before deadline.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 10:40 AM
And we're onto Raiders.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 10:42 AM
Which I see is 123 posts so it'll likely be an hour or so before I'm done so if I'm in the thread and not posting, that's why.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 11:11 AM
Yawl know that you can post as I am doing my recap's right? :)
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 11:19 AM
How is the voting now and who has not voted?
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 11:28 AM
Here is what I have on votes, as of Post #1008:
Blade - Anxiety (696), Raiders (710), Cronin (722), mckerney (771)
Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985)
Tanglewood - Hoopsguy (922)
Dubb - Coffee (946), JeeberD (952)
Not Voted: Barkeep, Tanglewood
I'm expecting to move my vote since there doesn't seem to be any consensus behind one of the four primary people being discussed.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 11:39 AM
Er, "beyond", not "behind" ... basically, I think my vote will be wasted for all intents and purposes if it isn't on one of the guys who have been the topic of conversation over the last 24 hours.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 11:43 AM
Hoops I am definetly moving in a direction that would have me vote outside "The 4".
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 12:00 PM
123 -
Simple, but extremely brilliant scientist checking in.
127 - Meaningless post
137 - Tells Anxiety not to delete posts
145 - Votes for saldana for using the word regular
147 - For the past few games, yeah, I've tried to lay low. FWIW, I never put too much stock in the second vote. I'm more of a third, fourth, etc. vote type guy
155 - Sees voting as win-win, though admits that a person is cleared for only Day 1.
158 - Yeah, that is a problem. If I were one of them I would definitely target one of the people who was cleared. I wouldn't think there would be only one of them; I would guess two. If there were only one of them, it would be a pretty quick game if we got lucky on day 1. Any more than two and it tilts the odds too much in their favor.
163 - Asks question about how the second vote in a day mechanic works
164 - Says he can't determine when we get a second vote
165 - Believes if we can use a second vote after checking a scientist the second vote should go to clear somebody
167 - Asks how the second pick is made
174 - Feels as good about blade as he does bad about saldana. No feel for hoops.
227 - Doesn't like saldana's regular statement but didn't mind WVU's "clean" statement
237 - Doesn't take too much stock of starting PMs
238 - Says hoops is a good choice to convert; also says Jeeber is a good choice
240 - Agrees we should try and find a starting rather then converted Shitface
241 - Believes the game is unbalanced if Shitfaces could convert every night
251 - Wonders if since there was no description of the conversion that we can still trust Jeeber
257 - Not sure what to make of dubb and cronin
265 - Going to rent the movie
268 - Thinks conversions are silent.
276 - Glad vote was delayed
287 - Says movie is inconclusive about whether noise is made upon conversion
291 - Discusses movie plot points with Qwik (who is dead, I'll add)
307 - Wonders if we can test Qwik's remains to see if I'm telling the truth
310 - Thinks we should test me. Wonders if there is a "doctor" role in the game that could test dead bodies
315 -
Thoughts about the game vs. movie:
Schmidty said he was going from memory on this game, so I don't think we can equate the game to the movie. That being said, I highly doubt there was a conversion on night 1. It didn't sound as if there was one, and I would guess that the Thing(s) would have a shot at doing it on Night 2.
If the game is different from the movie, then there is a possibilty (not probability) that the Original Thing(s) could be the only ones that could infect others. In that respect, I think it's more imperative to go after an original Thing and much easier to snag one as opposed to a converted person.
I doubt Jeebs and Barkeep are Things because of the arguments already made. I'd focus on Barkeep's posts #289 and #292 and pick someone from his list.
325 - Meaningless post
374 - Says he worded posts about saldana incorrectly. Was less sure then he appeared at the time. Only sure enough for a D1 vote.
375 - Votes for saldana. Claims it is because he does not agree with saldana voting for me
394 - Meaningless post
396 - Doesn't believe hoops is casting more suspicion then anyone else
398 - Questions saldana about being the first to place a second vote on D1, when saldana has just been critical of such a person
399 - Realizes Jeeber cast the first second vote on D1
409 - Believes either outcome from testing is a good thing
477 - Corrects hoops (saying he voted for saldana both days)
478 - Questions dubb about his use of we in reference to conversion (see dubb post 467)
479 - Tries to match my character up to the movie
481 - Votes for me in order to validate what I've done
482 - Claims he'd switch his vote to himself to avoid a tie. Beleives whoever gets the second vote on Day 2 pt 2 is a huge target for conversion
504 - Says based on voting chart dubb pops out at him. Votes for dubb
518 - Believes dubb's defence is similar to saldana's defense
519 - Says that if dubb isn't bad he'll still have a good voting record
522 - Points out that we don't know if they can convert everday. If they cannot was somebody converted D1
531 - Doesn't consider saldana an archenemy. Feels more strongly that I am good then dubb is bad which is why he switched votes
532 - Believes it possible for a thing to have changed their vote from saldana without suspicion until later on
538 - Says Blade's activity has been low
556 -
Appears you seriously don't want yourself tested. Myself, I won't change my vote to save myself. If the group as a whole want to test me, go right ahead.
Statements like this make me think the opposite.
557 - Says he's out for the night
624 - Wants to catch up and respond to last minute events
625 - Responds to Blade's accusations that Raiders sounded like we knew we were going to hit a villager stating that the odds were that we were going to hit a villager
626 - Points out that hoops and blade " "conveniently" missed the deadline"
629 - Says he didn't want to be tested so as to avoid becoming a JeeberD target. Found all the vote switching strange
630 - Tries to correct some mistakes hoops has made about him by quoting old posts of his own.
631 - Defends vote for dubb
634 - To hoops who has defended what he's said to Raiders
Those posts weren't meant to illustrate you "hampering my position". They were meant to illustrate how you've missed stuff all game. I can understand work intruding in on the game, but it seems as if you're not as sharp this time around...whether it's on intentional or not remains to be seen.
638 - Wonders about wording of schmidty's flavor text
643 - Admits that everyone was a convert, some just were before the game started
644 - Tries to get clarification from schdmity about flavor text
654 - Posts a vote count (wants it checked)
656 - Wants to be clear that he was not around during the deadline
665 - Believes there to be a silent conversion. Top 3 suspects are Jeeber, CW, and Blade. Gives thoughts on all players.
670 - Responding to blade who feels that his analysis in 665 is misleading asking Blade to state what was misleading
671 -
This is so fuckin flawed I don't even know where to begin picking apart this "analysis".
VOTE RAIDERS ARMY
Maybe because you can't.
672 -
Also, facts are facts. They're immutable unlike your pseudo-arguments.
677 - Defends list of suspects partly based on the fact that he knows he is a scientist
678 - Finds it funny that people think he led the charge against dubb
679 - Corrects blade's misposting of the vote count
683 - Says suspects were based on voting patterns and only on the final votes
685 - (Post CW seer reveal)
Okay. Coffee Warlord slipped down my list of suspects a lot. :)
689 - Accuses Blade of trying to get schmidty to give Blade the answer that Blade wants
693 - Believes according to voting patterns the top 2 suspects are Blade and Jeeber
694 - Believes Blade is ignoring facts
697 - Criticizes Blade for complaing about schmidty
708 - Feels Blade "shopped" for the answer he wanted. Says voting record still proves Blade voted for a scientist
709 - Defends lack of response as his going home
710 - Votes for Blade
712 - In reference to his 708 post
Misdirection is always key when you're on the other side.
715 - In response to dubb
I'm glad that you are questioning CW. I thought the same thing when looking at my voting spreadsheet. Based upon what I know, I believe him. But looking at it not knowing for sure I am a scientist I see four possibilities:
1. He's a Thing, I'm a Thing. For him to come out like this to "save" me would mean that our situation is dire or the endgame is in sight. I don't think either is the case.
2. He's the Seer, I'm a Thing. This doesn't make any sense unless I'm a Thing that when viewed, am viewed as a Scientist. This is a possibility.
3. He's a Thing, I'm a scientist. Again, I don't see the play here for him to do this, other than gain your trust for one day...and the tradeoff isn't worth it.
4. He's the Seer, I'm a scientist. This is the most likely scenario as he's stated his reasons for coming out at this point.
Scenarios 2 and 3 I throw away. The only one I would be worried about is scenario 1, which I don't see happening numbers-wise. There are 14 of us left. For this gambit to work, I would guess that there would have to be at least 4 things out there.
717 - Has Blade as top suspect and resposts who he has voted for
718 - Thinks checking CW is a wasted day
720 - Says that CW's actions are consistent with CW checking him out
733 - Posts why Blade voted for me. Then this
Dola, the one bright spot left is that there are other parts of the PM yet discussed we can still use as a clue if needed. But really, after one conversion that whole key will fall to us. So do you all want to use the other parts of the PM tonight/in the morning? It might at first give us a group to look at. Hell, use it to clear all the villagers we can, and then look at the group of around 6(2-3 things) and just test away
There are two things in here that ring some alarm bells. Anyone who knows what I know will think the same.
734 - Believes if we vote for CW it is guarenteed he will be converted
736 - Believes that CW as a Shitface doesn't make sense as it only buys him a small amount of time
740 - Again points out we can only trust somebody cleared for 1 day
745 - Too drunk to argue with Blade
753 - Suggests WVU is playing under the radar (UTR)
756 - Explains what UTR is
760 - Feels this is the perfect game to play UTR
765 - Meaningless post
767 - About Blade
The post count prior to day 2 was pretty low for him which would've been UTR for him. :)
805 - Believes Blade is preoccupied with him. Originally said Blade was a suspect ONLY because of voting patterns
809 - Believes WVU is ignoring what is out there
817 - Asks Blade what Blade thinks of his (Blade's) own voting record
818 - Movie post
831 -
Perhaps because it isn't possible? As a correction, for the scenario that we are both Things to occur, it would have to mean that there are at least five Things in the game.
7-5 Scientists.
After the voting goes for a Scientist, it would be 6-6 Scientists and the Things win.
Anything less than five Things and this isn't a winning gambit. Let's say it's four Things out there.
8-4 Scientists.
After the voting goes for a Scientists, it would be 7-5 Scientists.
The next day, you take out me and CW. That would make it 7-3 Scientists.
It just doesn't make any sense.
*Disclaimer: This isn't taking into account Barkeep's alleged skill and blessed/bodyguard roles.
836 - Believes Blade's voting record is worse then Blade does
842 - Wants to know if he and CW are Shitfaces what their victory strategy is
846 - Frustrated with blade
852 - Likes how Blade used "throwing other players under the bus" no sarcasm intended
859 - Posts a tenative vote count
861 - Believes Qwk's posting was night right
863 - Clarifies that I meant post not vote count
868 - Believes dubb is misled and not a thing
871 - Tries to get Blade to admit Blade's voting record is horrid
875 - Says conversion of CW doesn't make sense
880 - Says the throwing under the bus refers to an FOFC phrase about Peyton Manning
891 - Glad Blade admits Blade has had a bad voting record and reminds Blade that his post about Blade's voting record is what set Blade off
902 - To dubb
I agree with you completely. I had a horrible voting record many games and that was what killed me. For the seventh time, I posted that message based on voting records according to me...nothing else. It was other people who spun it out there. hoops asked for an analysis of voting records previously and I did it. Of course, I'm going to put my two cents in because I know I'm a scientist and I'll put that information out there.
I didn't put too much stock into it, but I also was going to keep it in the back of my mind. When you and Blade overreacted to it that was all you. Blade kept coming back to it and attacking it, so I felt as if he had something to hide. Remember that I didn't vote for him right away even after he was arguing.
Also, you never said why you felt as if that analysis was flawed. Why, and why did you feel as if it was flawed?
905 - Believes everything Blade did that day had no substance
908 - Going to bed
987 - Thinks there's no reason for dubb to think he's the bodyguard
988 - Wonders why hoops would vote if he revealed as bodyguard
990 - Agrees with Anxiety that Blade talks too much fluff. Claims he throws stuff out there and sees what sticks and ignores the other side of arguments
991 - Understands why hoop made the comment about him and the bodyguard
992 -
A few thoughts before I get ready to head to work:
1. After re-reading some of the posts, I agree that CW's post about his seer reveal makes it seem as if I'm legit today. It only came out later that he wouldn't know if I were converted Night 2. I gave him a bye initially since I knew I was a scientist and that's what he said. I think some of you are reading a little too much into his posts. It's not like other people haven't misposted. For example:
Post #467
We haven't converted since Saldana just died.
It sounds as if dubb is a Thing. I asked "Who's we" and he responded not to read anything into it. I find it ironic that he's doing the same thing to CW.
2. There is a possibility that dubb is still a Thing and the test won't work on him (damn if I can't remember that role right now). Frankly, I think that's a very slim possibility, but it might be considered. I'm trying to think how it would be balanced in the game. Barkeep's power, perhaps? That would be the only way to kill him. I just don't think that this is something to think hard about, but perhaps consider with any testing we do.
3. The more and more I think about it, I agree that Blade is just a loquacious stubborn individual and not a Thing. I also am not sure that dubb is converted either. Finally, I don't think CW is a Thing. I know I'm not a Thing. In a way, I think that the Thing(s) are sitting back and watch the four of us go at each other while we argue about testing four scientists. I'm going to try to step back a little to observe a little more (plus I have quite a bit of work today).
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 12:04 PM
For the record that post is Raider's post recap. I have to admit that this did raise some eyebrows with me.
In particular posts 374 and 375. In 374 he is backing off his D1 vote and says he didn't feel strongly about it. Suddenly 10 minutes later he's voting for saldana. What happened in those 10 minutes Raiders?
Also you asked for a scenario that makes you and CW things. It's quite simple.
Original things: Qwik & Saldana
N1: Convert You
N2: Convert Coffee
With you going after saldana perhaps they figured that made you a good target for conversion. Then by voting for saldana, despite the utter contradiction in your posts you seem to be clear. That is only further helped by CW's seer becoming on the thing side.
That said I don't think you are a thing but I would like you to respond to the 374 and 375 issue.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 12:05 PM
So as I start Blade's recap do not expect me to finish it until around 3 eastern. Also I am still leaning towards saying all 4 of the suspects today are scientists and would like to seriously look at Tangle, Swag, Anxiety, and WVU who have all been under the radar.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 12:14 PM
Oh I've completely forgotten about Jeeber. Yeah he's on that list along with the quiet 4. Shows how well he's gone UTR>
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 12:27 PM
I ahve to say how pleasant it's been to basically post to myself this mornign. Very little disagreement from the rest of you cocksuckers.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 12:46 PM
I was wondering where the profanity had gone.
I'm hoping to get home a little early this afternoon after working some very long hours over the last week. If you don't have something up on the quiet players I'll be happy to take a stab at them. I don't think it will take as long as the post captures you are doing but if you want some collaboration instead of this just being a solo project let me know.
So if you want to look at those five guys, does that imply that you have trust (for today, at least) in the people I'm listing as "not defined"? Obviously it is easier to look at a smaller group, but I would put mckerney (for example) into a classification of quiet.
1. JeeberD - quiet
2. st.cronin - not defined
3. tanglewood - quiet
4. Raiders Army - group of 4
5. Blade6119 - group of 4
6. dubb93 - group of 4
7. Swaggs - quiet
8. path12 - not defined
9. saldana - dead Thing
10. Qwikshot - presumed dead Thing
11. Barkeep - the person defining the terms here
12. mckerney - not defined
13. Coffee Warlord - group of 4
14. Anxiety - quiet
15. hoopsguy - not defined
16. WVUFAN - quiet
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 12:51 PM
First off, nice analysis. I don't think I'd have the patience to do all of this.
For the record that post is Raider's post recap. I have to admit that this did raise some eyebrows with me.
In particular posts 374 and 375. In 374 he is backing off his D1 vote and says he didn't feel strongly about it. Suddenly 10 minutes later he's voting for saldana. What happened in those 10 minutes Raiders?
Unfortunately, when you're looking at so many posts sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. Post 374 was why I voted for him on Day 1. Post 375 was my vote for him on Day 2. I can't remember what happened in those ten minutes. Boss came into my office? What I read in that is that I explained why I voted for him on Day 1 in the first post which was totally separate from the next post where I voted for him on Day 2. Obviously a lot happened between Day 1 and Day 2.
JeeberD
04-20-2006, 12:52 PM
I'm labeled quiet after my drunken tomfoolery last night? Weird...
Actually, I'm labeled quiet every WW game I'm in so it's not really so weird.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 12:53 PM
Another thought on Barkeep's role. He could be the wildcard in all of this. Remember he didn't receive a role in the beginning. What might be the easiest role to give out? A third party role where he has certain conditions that he can win under. He's not on the side of scientists and he's not on the side of Things. I don't think that's been brought up, but I just remembered those roles.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 12:59 PM
Raiders here's the thing I don't understand: You apologize, essentially, to a shitface in 374 for voting for him on D1. Then all of a sudden you've turned the hell around and are doing it again in 375. I mean Godamn! That's some multiple personality shit going on right there. Still doesn't ring right with me.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 01:00 PM
Another thought on Barkeep's role. He could be the wildcard in all of this. Remember he didn't receive a role in the beginning. What might be the easiest role to give out? A third party role where he has certain conditions that he can win under. He's not on the side of scientists and he's not on the side of Things. I don't think that's been brought up, but I just remembered those roles.
I'm just a fucking cocksucking scientist. I got the role that penny would have had if he had been around. Schmidty didn't go and change the balance of the game on d1.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 01:01 PM
Hoops: Well when you put it that way I realize how little trust i have of so many of these cocksuckers.
Going to lunch now; hope to finish Blade at the end of lunch, but otherwise will not be around much starting now.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 01:05 PM
I'm just a fucking cocksucking scientist. I got the role that penny would have had if he had been around. Schmidty didn't go and change the balance of the game on d1.
There's your profanity hoops!
Makes sense to me what you said, but just saying that it's a possibility.
path12
04-20-2006, 01:16 PM
I appreciate the analysis since it's been a busy week for me. I'm still pretty comfortable with my vote, but am interested in seeing other opinions/reactions/etc.
I'll be very interested in seeing any recap of Anxiety's posts. I've been meaning to do that.....
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 01:53 PM
And here we go with Blade
Blade
110 - Says how brilliant he is (1st to use the magic word)
117 - Meaningless post
118 - Shows Anxiety how to vote
119 - Votes for Jeeber since Jeeber already said he was going to vote for him
224 - Points out that nothing can be done to stop my kill. Says he included brilliant because schmidty hadn't made it against the rules
225 - Is glad that there are other parts of the PM which haven't been mentioned
226 - Meaningless post
228 - Agrees with hoops that unique roles did not get the brilliant PM
231 - Doesn't want me to kill him
232 - Blade points out that the PM is only good until after the first night cycle
282 - Votes for me
283 - Believes that I was a conversion target or orginal Shitface by announcing my kill. Believes we should focus on original Shitfaces
286 - Reposts peoples first post. On a side note his wanting me to say that I killed Qwikshot, a thing, in basically those words looks even more rediculous upon reflection then it did when he first redrew my attention to it.
308 - Thinks by testing me we find out the truth about Qwik.
309 - Criticises my avoiding of his question
335 - Still wants me to answer his question
336 -
I see three scenarios:
1.No conversion last night, they can only do it every other night for balance reasons(doesnt mean they couldnt still kill last night cough cough barkeep)
2.Conversion last night, can do every night(would have had to start with 2 id say...if qwik was converting it kind of makes sense why he was in the kennel)
3.no conversion becuase qwik was going to do it and he got killed by barkeep\
am i missing anything? Of those 3 im currently hung up on #1, but yes i dont think people should discount a conversion last night. The thing is, people think they have better odds looking for an original and not a convert(they say less targets with original, making it easier)....(i say its barkeep and hoops pushing, and their #1/2 on my suspect list so i dont like it one bit)
339 - Wonders why I am only mean to him
342 - Responds that my asking him why he hasn't voted for me that he did vote for me
344 - Doesn't like my list since hoops and I aren't on it
350 - Believes that taking a shot in the dark is worse then confirming that I am good and killed Qwik
354 - Wants to make it clear that voting for me isn't to clear me as much as to convict Qwik
356 - Asks why hoops and I are not on the list of six
357 - Thinks that I was overeager to put hoops off the list. Feels that shitfaces would attempt to convert a quiet one like Anxiety or WVU
359 - Wonders how going after a member of the list that day is better then in a future day
362 - Understands that I'm just trying to play the odds
379 - Says to saldana that we're using his list in reference to brilliant
404 - Is happy with saldana or me but prefers me
463 - Votes for Raiders
465 - Thinks Raiders was doing what he and hoops did in the treasure hunt game by trying to clear himself by being the one to put a shitface under pressure
466 - Referring to RA
dola, he was one of the cleared, he was the one most against saldana, and hes a vet...all 3 would be great criteria for a convert if saldana was an original...do you not think so?
468 - Believes if saldana is an original shitface RA is a logical convert target
471 - Explains precedent from X-COM for converting a vocal critic of a bad guy
475 - Wants to be talkative and asks if people are around
516 - I can't figure out the context of this post
Damn you raiders, i had cronin and mckerney with me for like 5 minutes and now they abandon me...if dubb isnt bad, damn you
520 - In response to RA saying D2 pt 2 voting is a win-win
No, but if/when we miss today then they get another person added to their team. Its not just oh well, we missed. It must be viewed as either we kill a thing or they double in #s(assuming qwik was a thing, which i am still very uncertain of)
524 - Believes shitfaces can convert each night. Feels strongly that saldana was killed without too much of a fight and so there will be a fight over this vote.
526 - Explains that he voted for me in the first part of the day to find out about Qwik but now thinks we can win and so he wants to try and find a shitface
530 - Believes that a vote for saldana doesn't necessarily clear someone
534 - Points out that 1 vote shift from saldana to me tests me
535 - Points out to Raiders that any time a person swaps from top to other top it creates suspicion
539 - Asks why a shitface would sacrafice himself when on nobody's radar to save another shtiface
541 - Defends his lack of posting
542 - Thinks having a Shitface stepout to save anotehr shitface is a gigantic risk
544 - Again emphasizes that a switch would not have created a tie between me and saldana
546 - Tells cronin he's not backing down
550 - Corrects hoops vote total
552 - Meaningless post
560 - Asks about the deadline
566 - Doesn't think dubb is a shitface
568 - Strongly believe RA is a conversion. Emphazes post where RA seems to know we're going to vote for a villager.
573 - Is willing to jump to RA if the votes are there
576 - Responds to me about testing vs dying in this game
578 - Wants dubb to switch his vote
583 - Wants CW to switch to prevent tie
586 - Asks dubb again to switch
588 - He's going to switch to prevent a tie
592 - Gives dubb 45 seconds
594 - Votes for dubb
597 - Says hoops vote shouldn't count because he unvoted incorrectly
599 - Says he'll "laugh his headoff if dubb is bad"
601 - Says dubb should be tested and is amazed at his silence
606 - Says how fun the last minute voting was
610 - Pages WVU
611 - Asks dubb if he's clean (this is after vote deadline but before shcmdity posts the results)
614 - Meaningless post
615 - Is upset we didn't win on Day 2 pt 2. Thinks we are in good shape for D3.
618 - Says how results won't be up that night
619 - Says he doesn't have a helpful role
668 - Says he isn't converted and votes for RA
669 - Agrees with dubb that RA's analysis is misleading
673 - Defends the difference between his official vote and who he wanted to vote for
674 - Says RA is twisting facts
680 - Defends having RA as a suspect despite RA's vote on saldana
681 - Asks schmidty about where his vote was on D2 pt 2
684 - Doesn't like CW's reveal. Feel it allows him to lie in future days.
686 - Argues RA's list of final votes in innaccurate
688 - Wanted to trust CW but feels this makes him a conversion target and so he cannot trust anything that is said
691 - Says he isn't shopping for facts but the truth in response to RA
695 - Thinks that perhaps schmidty made a mistake in response to RA
699 - Encourages RA to "bring it"
701 - Thanks schmidty for posting the vote count
702 - Asks schmidty how he is ignoring facts now that there is an official vote post
706 - Asks why RA is silent
782 - Says he is basically going to stop posting [i]If only that were true :)[/u]
783 - Asks if a N1 Raiders N2 CW conversion makes sense
785 - Says he edited a post to change a typo
789 -
RA was going down until that CW made his move it appeared...now both are out of danger...seems a fair play to me, that if even they delay it today and get a 3rd convert thats a plus. Then tomorrow, its certainly not set RA or CW will be tested..they dont claim to know im a thing...makes all the sense in the world to me..RA was on the block, CW came to his rescue. And if you review voting records RA couldnt afford to swap to barkeep with how close it was and the lack of voting at the end...he wouldnt have had a plausible reason, and then would have been suspect#1..
Anyway buddy, make your decision...you know how my personal life is more busy nowadays(UTR my ass, im still top 3 last time i checked)...if you think im bad, vote me. I wont mind, i know who to look at tomorrow night when we waste a scan
791 - Thinks that CW's reveal allows CW and RA to skate without suspicion
792 - Thanks schmidty for understanding why he edited his vote
798 - Argues a post of CW is proof that CW is trying not to get tested
801 - Is happy that dubb is seeing his point of view
803 - Explains why he's calling dubb dubby
804 - Quotes a WVU post pointing out that WVU and he are both willing to be tested now, not later
810 - Defends voting record as being off a gut and with his having no way to know that Raiders is an innocent
814 - Thinks a shitface would never had tried to do the last minute vote change
815 - Meaningless post
820 -
I make the assumption as far as the things are like this:
Qwikshot(killed night one)
Saldana(killed day 2)
RA(convert night one)
CW(convert night 2)
I assume qwikshot was a thing until i see another night kill happen(possible tonight). If it doesnt happen again, it means it was a one time power, and i assume it belonged to barkeep. Do i trust him, not one bit. If qwik was good, replace him with barkeep on the list. I voted for him and pushed for him on day 2 when others went to saldana, so i obviously dont trust him.
Im working under the conditions it doesnt matter if hes a thing, as if he is you can merely swap him in for qwik on that list.
823 - Thinks his voting record is pretty good
828 - Says his final vote was on RA and he caused no tie, that it was CW who had to switch back and forth to avoid a tie
834 - Talking about RA in response to a hoops' post
Yes, he wasnt around...and if he had been on the saldana vote there was no viable reason i saw that he could have used to swap if it he wanted to. If he had, he most likely would have hung himself and when that happened saldana as well. This way, they lost just saldana(good move in my mind). He goes after CW, one of the group that led the charge off dubb, a vet, and a fairly trusted person WHO NEVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT BRILLIANT(implying it likely he has a special role)...bodyguard has no idea who to protect and doesnt do CW, CW goes over and they start talking. Day 3 starts immediately i resume my push for RA, and it gains initial momentum. CW steps out claiming seer and clears RA and himself of danger for today, and by the way their playing it tomorrow as well at the minimum. Makes sense to me, as by the time we get around to test them they have 2 more converts(hell, prob. me and a quiet person realistically).
835 - Explains how he RA became the last minute target
837 - Wonders where RA is getting 5 shitfaces
838 - Thinks RA is just building up a case against him by pushing Blade
841 - In response to an accusation about a low post count by cronin points out that he is the #1 poster in the thread
844 - Argues that RA is doing just enough to get others killed and himself not tested which is a classic wolf strategy
845 - Asks if there are any other questions of him
850 - Once again says he's tired of defending himself and is going to let things fall where they may
853 - Wonders about the under the bus thing
864 - Believes shitfaces think they can ride CW as seer the rest of the game
867 - Wants hoops to read a post by dubb
869 - Wonders why RA says that there has been no discussion about the conversion target
877 -
Not in my mind, but if you make your assumptions about your own innocence then sure. I admit whatever you want. What other meaningless points do you want me to concede, becuase im happy to. Make a list real quick and ill admit to being the 20th hijacker if it makes you happy. Doesnt change what i think of the situation today.
My suspect list:
1.CW
2.RA(RA could be clean and CW, a thing, clears him...dubb did it a few games back, so we spend 2 days killing me or RA, then the other when they come up clear)
3.Barkeep(still dont know about the qwikshot kill, very possible third thing)
4.Dubb(despite his support of me, or maybe inspite of it...a possible convert, and is playing my support to earn my trust which ALAN T proved was oh so easy)
886 - Says that schmidty's writeup contains no clues
895 - Says he is working from his gut without allies. Votes for CW
898 - Argues that a post by Raiders is wrong by "official standards"
900 - Says that cronin shouldn't take offense at the crap he will give cronin after the test
901 - Asks hoop if a seer reveal makes sense if he is a human at this time
910 - Glad RA isn't taking their argument personally
912 - Is asking schmidty to end the day
914 - Argues that since hoops and I picked up hints about CW as seer shitfaces might have as well
919 - Meaningless post
925 -
I dont get that...in my mind we might have started with saldana/qwikshot(possibly barkeep). Night one they convert RA for all the same reason i converted you in X-com(so far has had the exact same results too). Night two, RA is either alone or with barkeep, and they pick up on CW's seer hints and convert him. Why convert tangle when he is never around to help them. RA made it clear he doesnt consider death then team victory a victory. Tangle would be the best choice for team victory, not for solo. It all makes sense to me, and i implore you to think long and hard about your direction you take after the test clears me.
And with that, i bid you all adeiu...sweet dreams you finger cutting pricks ;)
927 - Doesn't think there will be enough of a swing to save him
928 - Questions why I was in and out 4 times without posting
929 - Thanks dubb for helping him
976 - Laughs that he has been criticised for not posting and for posting too much
977 - Thinks I might be a bad guy assassin
978 - Feels double vote days are key
979 - Refers people to his suspect list (post 877)
981 - Thinks double votes can overwhelm the conversion factor
982 - Thinks the comparison of the death sequences suggest I am a good guy
986 - Asks me for the name of my role
Just for the record Blade claimed 3 times that he was done posting and 3 times he lied :D
dubb93
04-20-2006, 02:57 PM
I sure hope RA comes around, because after both Blade and I pointed out that his voting breakdown/discussion didn't allow for any discussion of who the late switch guys wanted to vote for compared to who they HAD to vote for in order to not get a tie, he seems to have just dropped that discussion all together.
Still trying to figure out how you can vote based on voting records and claim someone has a horrible one, but not discuss the deadline craziness of D2V2.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 02:58 PM
Also you asked for a scenario that makes you and CW things. It's quite simple.
Original things: Qwik & Saldana
N1: Convert You
N2: Convert Coffee
With you going after saldana perhaps they figured that made you a good target for conversion. Then by voting for saldana, despite the utter contradiction in your posts you seem to be clear. That is only further helped by CW's seer becoming on the thing side.
While this is certainly a possibility, what is the plausibility of this scenario?
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 03:01 PM
I sure hope RA comes around, because after both Blade and I pointed out that his voting breakdown/discussion didn't allow for any discussion of who the late switch guys wanted to vote for compared to who they HAD to vote for in order to not get a tie, he seems to have just dropped that discussion all together.
Still trying to figure out how you can vote based on voting records and claim someone has a horrible one, but not discuss the deadline craziness of D2V2.
I didn't drop it. Blade admitted he had a bad voting record. What you guys don't understand is that
THAT VOTING ANALYSIS WAS MINE. I KNOW I'M A SCIENTIST. IT DIDN'T MATTER IF BLADE WANTED TO VOTE FOR ME OR FOR YOU. HE WAS TRYING TO VOTE FOR A SCIENTIST. DO YOU UNDERSTAND THAT WAS MY POINT OF VIEW?
Holy Jesus.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 03:02 PM
Maybe I need to just post that again for the people who don't understand that.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 03:04 PM
Also, I voted based on not only his voting record but also his reaction to my post...which was typical Blade. I'm surprised he has you roped into it.
I'm rolling out for a while. I'll be back at least once more before the vote deadline.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 03:05 PM
And here we go with Blade
Blade
110 - Says how brilliant he is (1st to use the magic word)
I believe I was the first to use the word "brilliant." It was in post #107.
Blade followed up with it in post #110.
RA posted it in #123 and then brought it to everyone's attention in post #174.
In between the time I brought up the word "brilliant" and RA brought it to everyone's attention, saldana (post #112) and Anxiety (post #115) both posted as scientists, but did not use the word brilliant.
My only conclusion from this is that, at the start of the game, Blade, RA, and I were all simple, but brilliant scientists without any special skills. In hindsight (and some other, more polished players picked up on it at the time, I suspect) saldana gave himself up somewhat with his post. Anxiety does not really tell me much, since he is fairly unfamiliar to the game--he could be a Thing, but could just as likely be a specialized scientist.
dubb93
04-20-2006, 03:12 PM
Maybe I need to just post that again for the people who don't understand that.
Might be best to go ahead and post it again. Still not following you, but it's more of a "here is what I want everyone to think without the need to go back and fact check" sort of way.
And until you pony up and get checked I don't think the majority as a whole buys the fact that you are clean, thus the reason the one guy that has tried to clear you is the leading vote getter at this point.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 03:16 PM
In fairness to RA what he is saying is no different then what I did when compiling the list of six. Except I knew I was right about the list of six and am far more skeptical about him. But I do agree that we should not be saying that his list was the be all and end all as a game, but rather was merely his personal opinion.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 03:29 PM
Ok here's my list of people I think have been UTR and would like to see recieve more scrutiny: Anxiety, Swaggs, tangle, cronin and WVU
I am not terribely excited about the group of 4 except I still have some reservations about RA which would mean reservations about CW, but well I would much rather go for 1 of the five above OR go for Jeeber who is still an interesting candidate and has hung at the perfierary for the last couple of days, whether he's been UTR or not.
The rest of the players are not really on my radar as Shitfaces today and so I would need some convincing to go in that direction.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 03:37 PM
Well hoops, ill be around for about an hour then im gone for the day...care to play?
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 03:45 PM
After a good night's sleep (not really, I puked about 12 am) I think this is probably the most coherent post in the past 12 hours. I think Blade talks too much in terms of fluff. As it was said before in other games, he throws so much shit out there, he just sees what sticks and then throws shit on top of it. I really don't think he listens at all or he ignores the other side of the argument.
RA, not 1 day ago you were accusing me of being a thing for not talking enough and obviously trying to fly under the radar...now im talking too much? Seriously, make up your mind buddy :)
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 03:54 PM
Now I haven't gone through and looked at his posts, but he's around a lot without posting much, so I will do a post recap in a couple hours. But from what I do remember his posts tend to be devoid of content and since i have no feel about him from previous games I'm going to hold it against him.
Vote Swaggs
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 03:56 PM
Also, I voted based on not only his voting record but also his reaction to my post...which was typical Blade. I'm surprised he has you roped into it.
If its typical blade why would you vote for me? Would that not imply im playing my typical villager game? And if dubb is a villager, which i dont know, id assume he grabbed on to it becuase it makes quite a bit of sense. Night one saldana converts you, who during day 1 was his arch enemy and the one most onto him being a thing. Makes perfect sense...day 2, id assume you picked up on the CW hints about being a seer he put out there and made your move. Day 3 comes around and you suddenly find your as good as dead...what could possibly save you? How about a seer reveal claiming you are good? And then when we ask if that same seer will be tested he says not for at least 2 days..
No, wait, that cant make sense...because if blade says it it must just be fluff or shit im throwing on the walls.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:01 PM
And then when we ask if that same seer will be tested he says not for at least 2 days.
The underlying sentiment of this makes sense though. CW came out to save RA's ass so we didn't needlessly test a scientist. If CW is who he says he is now, he's right that he should not be our first testing target.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 04:05 PM
Yeah, I would like to play. But my early getaway from work has been cancelled so I'm going to have limited access for the next couple of hours.
Going from that list, WVU was very different than the time he was the quintessential under-the-radar wolf. He put himself out there yesterday, actually drawing the ire of some of the people he accused. I have him as the least likely wolf on that list, and this is after I was pushing for him late into Day 2 before trying to switch my vote at the end.
Tangle - I posted my thoughts on him last night when everyone was looking at the four-pack of players. I think he would have made an excellent conversion target, particularly on Night 2 when the Thing should have been feeling isolated.
The other three guys I don't quite have as strong an impression. They were the ones I was going to go back and look at posts when I got home.
Anxiety - first time player, pretty infrequent poster. I get the impression he is playing very heavily by feel at this point in the game, rather than latching on to one player or heavily scrutinizing each and every post. Just not much surface area to work with here.
Swaggs - I've played a few games with him now and my vibe has been that he is a guy who tends to come on late in games. I don't think he is all that quiet in terms of post count, but I also can't remember the last thing that he said that made me sit up in my chair and take notice. Out of this list, I think he is the guy that would worry me the most as a Thing.
Cronin - I have a different read on him every game. In this one, he seems to have pretty strong impressions when he has casted his votes. I recall him having a theory on you for Day 2 that he never shared and he seems very certain of his vote on Blade for today. I stated that I believe he started as a scientist because Qwikshot seemed happy to move his vote to him on Day 1. I don't think they would have turned around and converted him on Night 1, so if he was converted I think it is more likely on Night 2 after I published him on a trust list and he seemed to generate little suspicion the entire time.
Jeebs - obviously clean day 1. I think it would take some pretty serious cajones for the Things to go after him on Night 1 with the idea that there would be a bodyguard role in play. So I think he is a better Night 2 convert. Really need to go look at his posts ...
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 04:07 PM
The underlying sentiment of this makes sense though. CW came out to save RA's ass so we didn't needlessly test a scientist. If CW is who he says he is now, he's right that he should not be our first testing target.
I agree with that, but if im the seer coming out on day 2 to clear one person is not a play i would ever make...i would bide my time until i found a thing, or i had enough clearings where it would be useful(if you clear 5-6 guys, at best 1-2 could have been converted by chance). I just dont see the value in his reveal today, which makes me think he did it to save RA from testing, but not to help the overall group. I can't see myself making the same move, and therefore i dont believe he did it for good reasons...just my gut.
Raiders Army, did you recieve and message on night 2 about being tested?
path12
04-20-2006, 04:12 PM
OK, here's a post recap for Anxiety:
85 -- 1st game, may sit back and observe.
91 -- "supposed to claim scientist, right? Why?"
115 -- Officially declares as scientist thing, not thing scientist.
130 -- responds to Blades correction of his vote (bolding)
132 -- votes tangle -- 1st to call himself scientist, too eager.
133 -- del/repost edited vote.
269 -- vote dubb -- rocks with Jeebers reasoning.
293 -- meaningless.
294 -- "How are you guys not violating this?" references Schmidtys PM warning.
378 -- Unvotes dubb, votes Barkeep -- too abusive.
447 -- Votes tangle, complains again about people talking about 'brilliant'
676 -- Votes Hoops, reason of general unease.
696 -- Thinks RA's analysis is good reasoning, unvotes hoops and votes Blade.
970 -- "5 pages to go thru, it's high time you guys admit you haven't got an f'in clue, etc, etc, Blade talks too much". It's an interesting post to reread.
Now I've gotta get some friggin' work done.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 04:16 PM
Blade, I can answer you on Night 1 about getting (or not getting) a message about being tested. I'll hold off for now to see what answer Raiders gives.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 04:18 PM
Blade, I can answer you on Night 1 about getting (or not getting) a message about being tested. I'll hold off for now to see what answer Raiders gives.
Thats exactly why i asked him...i orginally had it typed up for you and changed it. Was hoping you would play along and not say anything
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 04:19 PM
Checking back in. I not sure if I really have a clue who could be a Thing to be honest, I'll read up a bit more and post some thought is a bit.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 04:19 PM
I agree with that, but if im the seer coming out on day 2 to clear one person is not a play i would ever make...i would bide my time until i found a thing, or i had enough clearings where it would be useful(if you clear 5-6 guys, at best 1-2 could have been converted by chance). I just dont see the value in his reveal today, which makes me think he did it to save RA from testing, but not to help the overall group. I can't see myself making the same move, and therefore i dont believe he did it for good reasons...just my gut.
I direct you to the other problem with my role. If I scan someone and it's a Thing, there's a chance I am automatically converted. In my mind, there are way too many opportunities for me to be converted before I can reveal myself.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 04:21 PM
I direct you to the other problem with my role. If I scan someone and it's a Thing, there's a chance I am automatically converted. In my mind, there are way too many opportunities for me to be converted before I can reveal myself.
I understand what you say the reasons are...im just still unsure about whether i buy them. That would make you basically the doctor from the spawn game(who did get turned). Im just saying, all your reasons considered i would never have made the move to clear 1 villager on day 2, therefore my suspicion.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:22 PM
I just want to point out, though I don't really give it much credence, that CW could be covering for Hoops instead. I still don't think this makes sense as a shitface, but it would be quite the Kansas City Shuffle, so to speak.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 04:23 PM
I'm here. Playing some TCB and refreshing every half hour or so to see if anything new has happened. My post total is a little low because I didn't pay much attention over Easter weekend (had company) and then had to work a lot earlier in the week, but I have tried to contribute what I think (but admit I do not have any concrete knowledge, based on my role).
My loose thoughts:
--JeeberD seems suspicious to me. If I were on the Things team, I would have looked to convert him right after he tested clean. I voted for him last time and again this time, before changing to CW (more on that next).
--I feel confident that Blade, RA, and myself were simple scientists to begin the game. There are probably a handful of other basic scientists, but I have no idea who they might be. I would suggest that Barkeep clearly was not, and I have my suspicious, based on the way they are playing, as to some of the others, but no real knowledge.
--I think CW is probably the seer and have said so. I think it is a decent play to vote for him, though, because if he is not the seer, we can roll him and RA up and hopefully win the game in one turn. If he is, as I believe, the seer, it clears him, and probably RA and hoopsguy, and then we can really look hard at Blade and Dubb, since they seem to be somewhat aligned.
--To me, the most interesting dynamic to this game is that voting ("lynching") someone in this game is not as big a swing in the favor of the Things, since it does not reduce the overall number of players, by killing someone. In addition, I am not as worried about being wrongly lynched/tested (and perhaps that is why there seem to be a few more attack dogs in this game), since I know I won't be knocked out of the game by being tested.
--The only other slight thought I have, that is not really completely developed, but I feel is a minor point in my favor is that it makes little sense for the Things to have converted RA, Blade, or myself since it has been clear, from early on, that we were simple, but brilliant scientists. Since they know that, it would make more sense, to me, for them to try to try to convert or night kill roles that are more dangerous to them. I obviously cannot vouch for RA or Blade (I think, based on behavior, it is actually quite possible that one of these guys are Things) at this point, but that is just my line of thinking. Now, it is certainly possible the Things considered that as well, but I think if I were playing as a Thing, I would want to get rid of someone like an assassin, medic, witness, bodyguard, etc.
That's pretty much all I have running around in my head right now.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 04:27 PM
Good luck in the vote, ive gotta run, ill be out until late tonight if not tomorrow...test me, test CW, realisticly the odds are quite slim on any one person. But do what your gut tells you is right and we can all deal with the results in our own ways.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:29 PM
Ok here's what I'm wondering: I think we made a mistake yesterday but not doing a mass reveal. We were so close, and frankly the amount of people playing in this game is going to be nearly constant until the end, I feel, that having that information out there when we were likely 1 shitface away from winning was a mistake. OH well, a missed opportunity indeed.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 04:30 PM
I understand what you say the reasons are...im just still unsure about whether i buy them. That would make you basically the doctor from the spawn game(who did get turned). Im just saying, all your reasons considered i would never have made the move to clear 1 villager on day 2, therefore my suspicion.
This, however, is no ordinary game. The longer we screw around killing villagers, the more Things there are, and the harder it is to win. As I know with pretty good certainty RA is not a Thing (right NOW), I made my move and prevented a wasted day.
Or at least tried to. Being honest never works in WW.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 04:38 PM
Barkeep, if you want to go that route then today would be more viable than tomorrow if we miss here. We can still get two of them in one day, but if we miss today and they convert tonight then we are playing at least until Day 5.
That said, if we are playing with two converts they will just say what their original roles were and have complete knowledge on how those roles work if they are in fact special roles.
The bodyguard role would be a helpful one, as we could rule out people being converted on a given night. Which would strongly imply that they weren't converted, since there would only have been one chance to do so. Also, they may have knowledge on how their ability works if they guard a Thing based on Q&A with the moderator. But I want that guy out there hidden as a deterrant against high-probability conversions, which we lose if he comes forward.
Risk/reward is high on both sides. I don't feel like we are in dire straights right now, but it could slip away from us quickly if we miss today.
Seeing as how we have not had one come forward yet, I am guessing there is not a witness role in this game.
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 04:43 PM
I'm not so sure anymore there's been any special roles truly revealed aside from Barkeep's so far. I re-iterate my vote for Coffee.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:44 PM
I don't think it makes sense at this point with 2 shitfaces out there. It was an idea that just came to me thoguh and I was lamenting our not doing it yesterday.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 04:45 PM
I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing.
I have played this game mostly close to the vest. I will continue to do so: I have my suspects and Blade is at the top of the list. CW is one of about three of you that I am sure is NOT a Thing. For today.
My vote stands. I hope the rest of you come to your senses about CW.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 04:45 PM
Barkeep, if you want to go that route then today would be more viable than tomorrow if we miss here. We can still get two of them in one day, but if we miss today and they convert tonight then we are playing at least until Day 5.
That said, if we are playing with two converts they will just say what their original roles were and have complete knowledge on how those roles work if they are in fact special roles.
The bodyguard role would be a helpful one, as we could rule out people being converted on a given night. Which would strongly imply that they weren't converted, since there would only have been one chance to do so. Also, they may have knowledge on how their ability works if they guard a Thing based on Q&A with the moderator. But I want that guy out there hidden as a deterrant against high-probability conversions, which we lose if he comes forward.
Risk/reward is high on both sides. I don't feel like we are in dire straights right now, but it could slip away from us quickly if we miss today.
Seeing as how we have not had one come forward yet, I am guessing there is not a witness role in this game.
What are you basing the two converts on? Are we assuming that Qwik and saldana were the original Things?
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 04:46 PM
dola
I also have to admit I have played this game badly. I misread a couple of people early on. But I think I have the hang of it now.
path12
04-20-2006, 04:49 PM
I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing.
Reasoning? I'd like to hear alternate points of view. We already know where the big four stand.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:50 PM
See I think close to the vest is absolute shit in this game. With information changing based on conversion almost every night I think to a certain extent having as much information out there as possible is beneficial.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 04:52 PM
Reasoning? I'd like to hear alternate points of view. We already know where the big four stand.
My reasoning has been out there. CW was not about to get tested (I think he had no votes on him at the time), so if he's a Thing, why bust out with a fake reveal at that particular time? It makes even less sense if both him and RA are Things, since RA was in the lead. 9 times out of 10, when somebody pulls a reveal, they draw votes. It would be a really, really bad play for a Thing.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 04:52 PM
See I think close to the vest is absolute shit in this game. With information changing based on conversion almost every night I think to a certain extent having as much information out there as possible is beneficial.
I agree with this.
I think we could use any information now to nail two Things in a row and wrap this game up in a hurry.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 04:52 PM
Swaggs, yes I'm assuming that Qwik and Saldana were the original Things. Which I beleive I have covered in my "assumptions" posts, although they may be buried at this point. I can dig that up again if people are interested.
If Qwik was a Thing, he had to be an original. Only possible way that isn't the case is if Things converted him Night 1 prior to Barkeep getting to have his PK. It isn't impossbible, but Barkeep had 15 people to pick from and Things had 14 people (assuming two at start) to pick from, so for them to select the same guy seems peculiar. Especially since Barkeep was looking for someone who struck him as a Thing while the Things were looking for someone who could escape detection.
Saldana isn't as sure a Thing - it is possible he was converted on Night 1. But if I was a Thing then I wouldn't have touched him with a ten foot pole after that rant he went on towards Raiders about his un-subtle simple/brilliant reveal.
Ergo, they were the original Things.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:54 PM
My reasoning has been out there. CW was not about to get tested (I think he had no votes on him at the time), so if he's a Thing, why bust out with a fake reveal at that particular time? It makes even less sense if both him and RA are Things, since RA was in the lead. 9 times out of 10, when somebody pulls a reveal, they draw votes. It would be a really, really bad play for a Thing.
I happen to agree which is why I through out the less likely idea that CW was really trying to clear hoops.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 04:54 PM
DOLA -- WHich I don't really buy all things considered at this moment.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 04:59 PM
I happen to agree which is why I through out the less likely idea that CW was really trying to clear hoops.
I'm not sure that makes any sense. The reveal is an end-game strategy, so either they were about to lose, or about to win. If they're about to win, we're probably fucked. But if they were about to lose, then RA is a Thing, and then again it makes no sense, except in a really crazy desperate way. In that scenario, there are better fake reveals or strategies available.
Also the reveal was very early in the voting cycle. Typical wolf fake reveals come LATE: That creates more confusion.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:01 PM
I agree with this.
I think we could use any information now to nail two Things in a row and wrap this game up in a hurry.
I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:09 PM
I'm not sure that makes any sense. The reveal is an end-game strategy, so either they were about to lose, or about to win. If they're about to win, we're probably fucked. But if they were about to lose, then RA is a Thing, and then again it makes no sense, except in a really crazy desperate way. In that scenario, there are better fake reveals or strategies available.
Also the reveal was very early in the voting cycle. Typical wolf fake reveals come LATE: That creates more confusion.
Got 5 minutes and wanted to address this.
The things are playing a numbers game..every night we dont test them they grow larger in number. Pulling this reveal has to some(you included) done exactly what it was intended to do. Buy a few days until their numbers are large enough and spread out enough we cant stop them. Tonight, whichever side they are on, they will convert someone on the utterly opposite side of the fence or a quiet person. Either way our job will be twice as difficult tomorrow. The reveal, if you test me, did everything it was intended to do. Save Raiders from being tested. The question you must ask yourselfs today, and prob. tomorrow if you tests me, is did he do it because he didnt want us to waste a day or he didnt want us to dust his only partner in crime
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 05:10 PM
There is no way we are about to lose with 2 (1 confirmed, 1 strongly assumed) kills on the books.
Reveal is an end-game strategy insofar as we can end the game with a Thing-Thing sequence today. But not for the Things at this point.
I agree on the early reveal versus late reveal. I can see a veteran player mixing up their play, but this is a weird game to try the fake reveal because what role can you come up with that will preclude testing? And mixing up play might mean early afternoon reveal, not 1 1/2 days before deadline.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:10 PM
I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.
Cronin, do you have a video camera? If so, set it up around the deadline(if i get tested), record your reaction, and then post it online...i need a good laugh. I cant wait to see you mull over how wrong your theory was :D
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 05:12 PM
I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.
I'm fine with that. I just think it might be a good idea for someone like a witness to clear or finger someone, so that we do not waste a sequence of testing. Like, for example, if someone followed Blade or CW all last night and feel like we would be wasting a test on them, now might be a good time to turn the game on the Things and knock them off balance.
In my opinion, Barkeep was smart to play his role early. It is better to get to execute your action and make it useful, than to sit on it the whole game and not use it or, even worse, dying without using it.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:12 PM
Might be best to go ahead and post it again. Still not following you, but it's more of a "here is what I want everyone to think without the need to go back and fact check" sort of way.
And until you pony up and get checked I don't think the majority as a whole buys the fact that you are clean, thus the reason the one guy that has tried to clear you is the leading vote getter at this point.
God you're so fucking stupid.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:13 PM
There is no way we are about to lose with 2 (1 confirmed, 1 strongly assumed) kills on the books.
Reveal is an end-game strategy insofar as we can end the game with a Thing-Thing sequence today. But not for the Things at this point.
I agree on the early reveal versus late reveal. I can see a veteran player mixing up their play, but this is a weird game to try the fake reveal because what role can you come up with that will preclude testing? And mixing up play might mean early afternoon reveal, not 1 1/2 days before deadline.
He did it when it was like 3-0 on raiders, with more looking to jump on the bandwagon...after his reveal everybody and their mother jumped on the vote blade wagon. Gee, that didnt work. Yes, the time he left us has been key, as it has swung back to a fairly even vote. He made a move to save his friend, did for awhile, and now its game time, bottom of the ninth, 4th quarter...the only thing that matters now is what are you going to do about it?
^^I like that last sentence...sounds like a movie speech in a tense moment :p
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:14 PM
God you're so fucking stupid.
Hey RA, look at the end of the last page and address my question to you if you would be so kind. Thanks a lot buddy :)
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:14 PM
RA, not 1 day ago you were accusing me of being a thing for not talking enough and obviously trying to fly under the radar...now im talking too much? Seriously, make up your mind buddy :)
1 day ago I accused you of flying UTR in the beginning of the game. Look it up. If you could possibly read what people write, then you would see that I say that you talk too much without listening. I have made up my mind.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:15 PM
He did it when it was like 3-0 on raiders, with more looking to jump on the bandwagon...after his reveal everybody and their mother jumped on the vote blade wagon. Gee, that didnt work. Yes, the time he left us has been key, as it has swung back to a fairly even vote. He made a move to save his friend, did for awhile, and now its game time, bottom of the ninth, 4th quarter...the only thing that matters now is what are you going to do about it?
^^I like that last sentence...sounds like a movie speech in a tense moment :p
So your scientist character thinks RA is a Thing? Along with CW? That's just goofy. You should know better.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 05:16 PM
Barkeep, I thought earlier about the benefit of CW testing for me. But it doesn't mean all that much.
If he is telling the truth about his role, then it is possible I was converted on Night 1 or Night 2 since he doesn't know (or can't tell) what the processing order is: seer first, or Things first.
If he was converted, he could still be telling the truth about testing me on Night 1. The one thing that he can't do, if converted, is point towards someone as a Thing and have them show up clean.
I would like to get as much mileage out of being tested as possible, but all it absolutely means is that I wasn't an original Thing. Which I know ... and that anyone who agrees with me that we are hunting converts at this point already knows.
I expect a converted seer would say that everyone he "scans" is clean. And he is just fine until we test him or the wrong person he cleared. He can't necessarily control the first, but he can definitely control the 2nd.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:17 PM
So your scientist character thinks RA is a Thing? Along with CW? That's just goofy. You should know better.
I think its all too logical....who made the best conversion prospect day 1? RA is saldana is a thing. They fought, they argued, the works...who would expect bitter rivals to be things together(well, besides paranoid ol me). Day 2 CW put out enough hints about being the seer that both barkeep and hoops noticed...to assume a thing couldnt notice too is crazy.
What i find goofy is you assuming im a thing, and i would call you a scientist but i dont know that you have ever claimed a role.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:18 PM
If its typical blade why would you vote for me? Would that not imply im playing my typical villager game? And if dubb is a villager, which i dont know, id assume he grabbed on to it becuase it makes quite a bit of sense. Night one saldana converts you, who during day 1 was his arch enemy and the one most onto him being a thing. Makes perfect sense...day 2, id assume you picked up on the CW hints about being a seer he put out there and made your move. Day 3 comes around and you suddenly find your as good as dead...what could possibly save you? How about a seer reveal claiming you are good? And then when we ask if that same seer will be tested he says not for at least 2 days..
No, wait, that cant make sense...because if blade says it it must just be fluff or shit im throwing on the walls.
You're typical Blade now. Before the buttons were pressed on you, you weren't. In all fairness, I think that you didn't have anyone else on to talk to, so that's why you were silent.
Why not put yourself in CW's situation. Let's say you really were the seer. Would you want to reveal yourself and waste a day confirming that fact?
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:19 PM
I think its all too logical....who made the best conversion prospect day 1? RA is saldana is a thing. They fought, they argued, the works...who would expect bitter rivals to be things together(well, besides paranoid ol me). Day 2 CW put out enough hints about being the seer that both barkeep and hoops noticed...to assume a thing couldnt notice too is crazy.
What i find goofy is you assuming im a thing, and i would call you a scientist but i dont know that you have ever claimed a role.
I am a Scientist. Trained at the feet of Aristotle himself.
I just refuse to call myself brilliant ... I leave that for others.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:19 PM
You're typical Blade now. Before the buttons were pressed on you, you weren't. In all fairness, I think that you didn't have anyone else on to talk to, so that's why you were silent.
Why not put yourself in CW's situation. Let's say you really were the seer. Would you want to reveal yourself and waste a day confirming that fact?
I already stated i wouldnt not reveal myself until i had a thing or at least 4-5-6 cleared villagers. Coming out on day 2 with 1 really cleared villager is utterly madness to me...which i why i dont buy it.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:20 PM
Blade, I can answer you on Night 1 about getting (or not getting) a message about being tested. I'll hold off for now to see what answer Raiders gives.
My answer is like it is in every other game. I didn't get any message. Why would we?
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:20 PM
I am a Scientist. Trained at the feet of Aristotle himself.
I just refuse to call myself brilliant ... I leave that for others.
What reasons do you have to be so sure of me being a thing other then you dont like my logic?
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:21 PM
My answer is like it is in every other game. I didn't get any message. Why would we?
CW claimed genetecist...that would imply he had to test your blood, implying he would have had to of had your cooperation or take it while sleeping. One of those 2 might cause a message to be sent. Just checking all our options here
Schmidty
04-20-2006, 05:24 PM
God you're so fucking stupid.
Please don't do that kind of crap in my game. I expect you guys to respect each other and act like actual adults.
Abe Sargent
04-20-2006, 05:24 PM
Please don't do that kind of crap in my game. I expect you guys to respect each other and act like actual adults.
*applauds*
-Anxiety
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:25 PM
Hey RA, look at the end of the last page and address my question to you if you would be so kind. Thanks a lot buddy :)
Did I answer it? I'm not sure, but I responded to two of your posts. I might've missed it though...
path12
04-20-2006, 05:26 PM
My reasoning has been out there. CW was not about to get tested (I think he had no votes on him at the time), so if he's a Thing, why bust out with a fake reveal at that particular time? It makes even less sense if both him and RA are Things, since RA was in the lead. 9 times out of 10, when somebody pulls a reveal, they draw votes. It would be a really, really bad play for a Thing.
Well, I do understand this view. But for me it's so out there that it actually gains viability. It's a ballsy all-or-nothing play, and risky as hell, but if they can buy a day or two to convert more things they've put themselves in the drivers seat.
Raiders was likely going to be tested, which if this hypothesis is correct would have left Coffee as the only thing remaining as the converted seer.....so I can see them trying the hail mary at this point.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:26 PM
Please don't do that kind of crap in my game. I expect you guys to respect each other and act like actual adults.
Well, I wanted to delete it or edit it because I immediately felt bad about it...
I would've changed it to:
"You're playing a really good role ignoring what I'm saying even though I shout it out to you."
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:26 PM
Did I answer it? I'm not sure, but I responded to two of your posts. I might've missed it though...
You did, it was the question about being notified of the testing. Thank you kindly buddy :)
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 05:28 PM
Votes as of Post #1088:
Blade - Anxiety (696), Raiders (710), Cronin (722), mckerney (771)
Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985)
Tanglewood - Hoopsguy (922)
Dubb - Coffee (946), JeeberD (952)
Swaggs - Barkeep (1038)
Not Voted: Tanglewood
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:29 PM
So its basically a tie as i doubt Coffee will keep his vote on dubb and let himself be tested currently. Maybe im mistaken though, which would be a bad thing with what i could imply
Abe Sargent
04-20-2006, 05:29 PM
If Blade is not a Thing-y, I'm warning everybody here that I am going to make a vote in the next round that may upset some of your assumptions.
-Anxiety
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:29 PM
If CW was trying the hail mary, it would be stupid. Once you test someone other than us, the target immediately goes to us. Tomorrow you take us both out with the first vote, then the second. I just don't get why you guys don't see that. It would kill him unnecessarily.
Let's say we're both Things and he remained silent. I'm killed today, and he converts someone tonight. Why would he need to "save" me?
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 05:29 PM
Confirmed - I received no message on Night 1 about being tested.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 05:29 PM
I already stated i wouldnt not reveal myself until i had a thing or at least 4-5-6 cleared villagers. Coming out on day 2 with 1 really cleared villager is utterly madness to me...which i why i dont buy it.
This is kind of a curious statement. You were in the brilliant crowd to begin with, so how would have anything special to reveal?
Abe Sargent
04-20-2006, 05:30 PM
This is kind of a curious statement. You were in the brilliant crowd to begin with, so how would have anything special to reveal?
True.
-Anxiety
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:30 PM
If CW was trying the hail mary, it would be stupid. Once you test someone other than us, the target immediately goes to us. Tomorrow you take us both out with the first vote, then the second. I just don't get why you guys don't see that. It would kill him unnecessarily.
Let's say we're both Things and he remained silent. I'm killed today, and he converts someone tonight. Why would he need to "save" me?
CW already said he wants WVU to go tomorrow, after me, and to top it all off his vote today is on dubb. Your partner in crime doesnt share your view im afraid
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 05:31 PM
RA, I don't expect that it is a lock that a conversion happens. Bodyguard, blessed, something - realistically, I would expect Schmidty to put something in there that makes it less than 100%.
But if RA/CW are the Things, then why did RA let Saldana rot but now CW is saving RA? That seems like an inconsistent play to me.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:31 PM
This is kind of a curious statement. You were in the brilliant crowd to begin with, so how would have anything special to reveal?
He asked what i would do if i was the seer...not if i was a regular villager :(
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:34 PM
CW already said he wants WVU to go tomorrow, after me, and to top it all off his vote today is on dubb. Your partner in crime doesnt share your view im afraid
Please go back and check why he voted for dubb. I see that your play is to muddy the waters, instead of clearing them.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 05:35 PM
Is everyone voting for Coffee working with the assumption that he is covering for Raiders (or possibly me, although revealing to save scientist Raiders makes little sense)?
If not, can you build a case where Coffee is converted seer, then makes his reveal clearing two scientists on Day 3? I'm just about sure I will not be moving my vote here.
Will look for responses on this when I get home from work in 60-90 minutes.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:37 PM
But if RA/CW are the Things, then why did RA let Saldana rot but now CW is saving RA? That seems like an inconsistent play to me.
Hoops, go re-read X-com game...day 1 you and i(me=saldana, you=raiders) fight and you call me an alien...night one we convert you(raiders did it ironically)..day 2 we both come out firing to keep up the charade and vote each other. Raiders came out real early and voted saldana(long before it at all looked like saldana would get tested). How could he have swapped to barkeep after all of the stuff he had said about being pretty sure saldana was a thing. A swap would have meant dead raiders, and when he came up bad a dead saldana.
CW has never really opposed RA(he was apart of the swing group, granted...making his seer comments all the more attractive for conversion). IF you go re-read CW on day 2, he thinks dubb is the top suspect...he only swaps becuase the groups asks it. Why then test RA? Its just too convenient, too early for me to believe it...
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:37 PM
Well, after reading back, I'm still not sure to be honest.
I think that Coffee is clean, at least today, therefore RA is also clean. However, I think Blade is pretty much playing his normal hyperactive villager game and don't really suspect him of being a Thing at this point. Dubb, I don't know, but nothing he has done/said has really jumped out at me really as an obvious conversion.
I am still in favour of checking Barkeep, especially now another day has gone past. I would like to 100% confirm that his killing of Quik was on the level, and even though I am fairly sure he was a good guy then I would not be suprised if he had been converted since. Other players I would prefer to check ahead of the 4 main candidates at the moment are JeeberD and Path, merely because they are flying through pretty much unchallenged and unnoticed so are/would've been good converstion candidates of the Things.
mckerney
04-20-2006, 05:38 PM
This is kind of a curious statement. You were in the brilliant crowd to begin with, so how would have anything special to reveal?
Blade clearly has no problem with fake reveals, as shown in the Lost game when he claimed 3 or 4 different roles before settling on ultimate superhero who couldn't be killed, and if anyone tried to harm him it would result in multiple deaths.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:39 PM
Here are what I have for the current vote counts:
Raiders - CW (252), Saldana (332)
JeeberD - Dubb (254)
Dubb - JeeberD (261), Anxiety (269)
Barkeep - Blade (282), Cronin (343)
Saldana - Barkeep (331)
I'm going to be out for most of the afternoon, but without any further evidence emerging between now and when I check in tonight I won't be voting for either Dubb or Raiders. Maybe Barkeep by following Blade's line of thought (makes sense, but right now I believe him and I don't want to lose a chance at a Thing today) but more likely CW or Saldana.
FWIW, this was the vote count when I voted for saldana. If I were a Thing, I would be better off voting for Barkeep or Dubb. Why would I have voted for my fellow Thing?
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:39 PM
Is everyone voting for Coffee working with the assumption that he is covering for Raiders (or possibly me, although revealing to save scientist Raiders makes little sense)?
If not, can you build a case where Coffee is converted seer, then makes his reveal clearing two scientists on Day 3? I'm just about sure I will not be moving my vote here.
Will look for responses on this when I get home from work in 60-90 minutes.
I see 1 other option, hence why im voting CW and not RA:
Remember when dubb, the turncoat, cleared someone in a massive argument with another, so we went and lynched the other. They came up clean, so we were like damn and went back the next day and lynched the person dubb cleared who was originally in the argument. He came up clean too. Dubb got us to kill two days while they did their night actions and became stronger. I could see CW pulling the same thing, which is why hes #1 on my list.
path12
04-20-2006, 05:39 PM
If CW was trying the hail mary, it would be stupid. Once you test someone other than us, the target immediately goes to us. Tomorrow you take us both out with the first vote, then the second. I just don't get why you guys don't see that. It would kill him unnecessarily.
Let's say we're both Things and he remained silent. I'm killed today, and he converts someone tonight. Why would he need to "save" me?
I find it odd that you don't acknowledge that it's a viable strategy. It seems to me that there is a crucial balance for the things to get to, and that would be at least three. At that point the balance tips and it's going to take three correct tests in a row for the scientists to win. If CW doesn't come out and "clear" you, then you're back to one thing, a conversion and square one. Any of us might or might not make that same gamble in that circumstance, but it's hard to deny that it makes sense.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:40 PM
dola
I do think Coffee is clean, but if pushed to choose one of the main four to test today it would be him, simply because if we have to merely find a scientist then he would be the most valuble of the four to clear IMHO. I would still prefer to go in another direction, however.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:40 PM
Blade clearly has no problem with fake reveals, as shown in the Lost game when he claimed 3 or 4 different roles before settling on ultimate superhero who couldn't be killed, and if anyone tried to harm him it would result in multiple deaths.
To be fair, he was telling the truth for at least some of it. :D
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:41 PM
FWIW, this was the vote count when I voted for saldana. If I were a Thing, I would be better off voting for Barkeep or Dubb. Why would I have voted for my fellow Thing?
BECUASE YOU TRUMPETED ALL DAY BEFORE ABOUT HOW YOU THOUGHT HE WAS A THING...AM I STUTTERING HERE? THAT VOTE COUNT PROVES THAT YOU WOULD NOT HAVE EXPECTED SALDANA TO GAIN A LOT OF HEAT...
Is this thing on??
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:41 PM
To be fair, he was telling the truth for at least some of it. :D
I fingered 3 of the 4 lost for you guys! Gah, i really was trying to help :(
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:42 PM
Just before I place a vote does anyone have a vote count?
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 05:42 PM
I'm voting for Coffee because I think voting for he or Blade will pinpoint the combo of CW/RA or Blade/dubb.
Blade seems more willing to be tested, just so he can prove st. cronin wrong. But, nonetheless, he is willing. Also, st. cronin seems to strongly believe that Blade needs to be tested.
CW is willing to be tested, but only after Blade and WVU fan.
These are probably small comments that do not matter a great deal, but that is kind of what I am looking at now. That is why I wish someone could condemn or clear one of the two. I feel like if we get this one right, we could roll up a win.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:43 PM
I find it odd that you don't acknowledge that it's a viable strategy. It seems to me that there is a crucial balance for the things to get to, and that would be at least three. At that point the balance tips and it's going to take three correct tests in a row for the scientists to win. If CW doesn't come out and "clear" you, then you're back to one thing, a conversion and square one. Any of us might or might not make that same gamble in that circumstance, but it's hard to deny that it makes sense.
I'm sorry, but I don't see how it makes any sense. Their best bet right now is to lay low and let us test each other while they convert. To me, it's too early in the game to gamble like you suggest.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:44 PM
dola
I do think Coffee is clean, but if pushed to choose one of the main four to test today it would be him, simply because if we have to merely find a scientist then he would be the most valuble of the four to clear IMHO. I would still prefer to go in another direction, however.
Finding a scientist does NO good. Because then there's the night cycle, and the test is invalid. That's the trick to this game: It's incredibly important to vote for a Thing.
path12
04-20-2006, 05:44 PM
Is everyone voting for Coffee working with the assumption that he is covering for Raiders (or possibly me, although revealing to save scientist Raiders makes little sense)?
If not, can you build a case where Coffee is converted seer, then makes his reveal clearing two scientists on Day 3? I'm just about sure I will not be moving my vote here.
Will look for responses on this when I get home from work in 60-90 minutes.
My current vote is based upon your first assumption. It might not seem that way, but I'm not locked into it if someone can convince me there's a better option out there. I'm just trying to nail a thing here. But I've seen no better option yet.
I'm not sold on Blade being bad. His tone is different this time than it was when he was bad in Barkeeps game.
mckerney
04-20-2006, 05:44 PM
Just before I place a vote does anyone have a vote count?
vote blade, plz k thx
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:45 PM
BECUASE YOU TRUMPETED ALL DAY BEFORE ABOUT HOW YOU THOUGHT HE WAS A THING...AM I STUTTERING HERE? THAT VOTE COUNT PROVES THAT YOU WOULD NOT HAVE EXPECTED SALDANA TO GAIN A LOT OF HEAT...
Is this thing on??
I also said that day that it would be better to validate Barkeep to see if he was on the level. I did not trumpet all day about how I thought he was a Thing. Show me.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:46 PM
Finding a scientist does NO good. Because then there's the night cycle, and the test is invalid. That's the trick to this game: It's incredibly important to vote for a Thing.
Yes, I completely agree. But if I am fairly sure that all of the main suspects everyone else wants to vote for are clean, and my main candidate I would like to check out (Barkeep) is getting no momentum, then what to do? So, if forced, I will vote for the person who I think would bring greatest benefit if he's cleared.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:47 PM
I don't understand this wanting to validate somebody, when as you've validated them, your test is invalid.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:48 PM
Some saldana quotes(most of them) from the day he died...most are interesting, including the final one where he talks around about cronin supporting him. Interesting since cronin is now supporting RA/CW
suspect all you want jackass, you can buy into the raiders army school of logic all damn day, i know im a scientist.
as far as why i went back at RA so hard, history between us has me very wary of him....his little "i'm too drunk to read straight, but i ended up being right" nonsense from the lost game has me a little bit defensive when he starts pointing fingers.
i guess it doesnt matter though....we always have the same reactions to accusations in games that we dont actually die.
but since i still think his logic is bullshit
vote raiders army
allow me to elaborate a bit on why i voted for raiders.
1. i always find fault with his logic, his accusation of me in this game is no exception, as i think i have already shown
2. i was a little annoyed that he announced the brilliant thing so freaking fast...if you notice a code that allows you to build a circle of trust...why announce it...why not keep it under your hat on the chance that others havent noticed it(which i did), so that you have a group you can trust that may or may not be public knowledge. thats not something a scientist would do, imo. if we remember the lost game, that time, the code stayed hidden for 3 days, and ended up being a complete road map to the others...this time, it got pulled into the open so fast that it isnt nearly as damning.....imo, only a thing would have wanted that exposed so fast.
my vote stays where it is.
barkeep, i don't know what to tell you as far as your suspicions of me go, i dont really understand them other than you are supporting RA from yesterday
if you go back and look at when i posted my "regular" post, it was after swaggs' comment, which game before the Game Post 1, and after blades'. it wasnt until raiders made his much more obvious comment "simple, but brilliant scientist" that it set off bells and i went back and reread the entire game and noticed the pattern. if i had come back and posted about my brilliance at that point, it would have looked very obvious, more so than raiders, and i didnt want to draw attention to it.
only have a second to check in while i am at work, but i wanted to comment on this...i can understand the people that think i went strong at raiders and why that draws suspicion on me.. the only answer i have for that is that i, like others in the past, and probably others in this game, forgot that i didnt die when i get the most votes. if you put my reaction into typical werewolf game perspective, instead of in the testing perspective, i think my reaction is totally normal...no one wants to die on day one....put that in comparison to my attitude today, and it is totally different, or indifferent if you would like, because i realized that getting the most votes is not necessarily a bad thing ( it could be bad if the things are using the "convert whoever is tested" plan)
as far as my vote for the day, i know absolutely nothing about this theme, so if cronin has some kind of theory that will help us with the barkeep issue, i will
unvote raiders
vote barkeep
all i can say at this point is what i have already said several times, i am a scientist, not a thing...voting for me wont help us get the things, however, i think we should examine cronin's posts...if he is saying a test of barkeep may have further benefits other than clearing him, assuming he is a good guy, that is a bigger benefit than testing me and having me cleared for 12 hours.
thats all i got.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:48 PM
Yes, I completely agree. But if I am fairly sure that all of the main suspects everyone else wants to vote for are clean, and my main candidate I would like to check out (Barkeep) is getting no momentum, then what to do? So, if forced, I will vote for the person who I think would bring greatest benefit if he's cleared.
If you think Barkeep is bad, then does that mean you thought Qwik was good? Or do you think BK was converted?
Also I don't see how anbody can be considered 'clean.' Everybody's a suspect, to some degree.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:49 PM
Vote Coffee Warlord
Just checked back a page for a vote count and if I voted for Blade, which I don't want to do anyway, it would cause a tie.
If a late, late, late bandwagon is willing to on Barkeep I will switch to him.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:49 PM
I'm sorry, but I don't see how it makes any sense. Their best bet right now is to lay low and let us test each other while they convert. To me, it's too early in the game to gamble like you suggest.
Test each other by not testing the seer and the person he clears? Normally, you would be clear for days...unfortunately im stubborn
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 05:50 PM
What time is the deadline tonight? I want to try to be around, in case there is a tie.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:52 PM
I don't understand this wanting to validate somebody, when as you've validated them, your test is invalid.
If CW comes clean today, that means he is not lying regarding his views. Therefore, RA is most likely clean today too and Hoops was clean day one. This simply gets us more information to use, even if it could be incorrect now I would rather have someone confirmed they were a villager yesterday than not confirmed anyway at all.
Besides, I WOULD RATHER VOTE FOR BARKEEP BUT NO ONE ELSE WANTS TO.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:52 PM
What time is the deadline tonight? I want to try to be around, in case there is a tie.
It's in 10 mins or less.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:54 PM
If CW comes clean today, that means he is not lying regarding his views. Therefore, RA is most likely clean today too and Hoops was clean day one. This simply gets us more information to use, even if it could be incorrect now I would rather have someone confirmed they were a villager yesterday than not confirmed anyway at all.
Besides, I WOULD RATHER VOTE FOR BARKEEP BUT NO ONE ELSE WANTS TO.
Vote your conscience. If that makes the numbers a tie, somebody else will change.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:54 PM
Some saldana quotes(most of them) from the day he died...most are interesting, including the final one where he talks around about cronin supporting him. Interesting since cronin is now supporting RA/CW
Finally you actually went back to find something. You still didn't prove how I was
BECUASE YOU TRUMPETED ALL DAY BEFORE ABOUT HOW YOU THOUGHT HE WAS A THING...AM I STUTTERING HERE? THAT VOTE COUNT PROVES THAT YOU WOULD NOT HAVE EXPECTED SALDANA TO GAIN A LOT OF HEAT...
Is this thing on??
Try quoting me.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 05:54 PM
It's in 10 mins or less.
plus 2 hours, I believe
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:54 PM
It's in 10 mins or less.
I thought we had another 2 hours. It's only 7 pm EST.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 05:54 PM
If CW comes clean today, that means he is not lying regarding his views. Therefore, RA is most likely clean today too and Hoops was clean day one. This simply gets us more information to use, even if it could be incorrect now I would rather have someone confirmed they were a villager yesterday than not confirmed anyway at all.
This is pretty much where I am.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:55 PM
If you think Barkeep is bad, then does that mean you thought Qwik was good? Or do you think BK was converted?
I am not sure regarding Qwik to be honest, certainly not as sure as I was when it first occured. Also, I think that Barkeep would've been a very tempting conversion target as on day 1 and day 2 he was almost by consensus seen as a good guy who offed a Thing.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:55 PM
Some saldana quotes(most of them) from the day he died...most are interesting, including the final one where he talks around about cronin supporting him. Interesting since cronin is now supporting RA/CW
BTW, that was all saldana overreacting to a little comment I made the day before. I'm still from Missouri. Show me.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 05:56 PM
If CW comes clean today, that means he is not lying regarding his views. Therefore, RA is most likely clean today too and Hoops was clean day one. This simply gets us more information to use, even if it could be incorrect now I would rather have someone confirmed they were a villager yesterday than not confirmed anyway at all.
Wow am I thrilled that unzipping my fly is going to prove to be totally useless now.
Guess what? Unless there IS a bodyguard out there, if I'm voted today, the odds of me getting converted go from high to damn near 100%. The Things can't afford to do otherwise.
Can say all you want about how only a Thing doesn't want to be tested, but voting me is going to fuck us.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 05:57 PM
I thought we had another 2 hours. It's only 7 pm EST.
My mistake, I forgot the 7pm deadline was for night actions.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:57 PM
Finally you actually went back to find something. You still didn't prove how I was
Try quoting me.
Post 374/375...just stunning turnaround in a matter of 1 post
LOL. That was great!
Anyhow, again my suspicion of you was not much at all. Enough for a day 1 vote, but I'm not sure about a Day 2 vote based upon the whole "Regular" thing. Looking back, I worded my posts incorrectly; I was far less certain of you being a Thing than you thought I thought. Your reaction was a little strange, but whatever... :)
VOTE SALDANA
Sorry man. I just don't follow your logic (but maybe that's because I'm illogical). I welcome any votes against me so I know I'm cleared; however, if I am cleared tonight, then it will waste a day of voting. I don't agree with voting for Barkeep, since he does seem to be on the level. You're on his list of six, so I'm going for you.
If thats not odd, i dont know what it
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:58 PM
I already responded to this.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:59 PM
374 is the exact post a converted thing would make, and 375 one after being told not to change your play-style...reason it for me buddy, lets see what you can come up with
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 05:59 PM
And you still didn't prove how I was trumpeting saldana as a Thing.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 05:59 PM
I already responded to this.
Do it again, for me...pretty please:)
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:00 PM
Post #1018
First off, nice analysis. I don't think I'd have the patience to do all of this.
Unfortunately, when you're looking at so many posts sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. Post 374 was why I voted for him on Day 1. Post 375 was my vote for him on Day 2. I can't remember what happened in those ten minutes. Boss came into my office? What I read in that is that I explained why I voted for him on Day 1 in the first post which was totally separate from the next post where I voted for him on Day 2. Obviously a lot happened between Day 1 and Day 2.
mckerney
04-20-2006, 06:00 PM
Vote Coffee Warlord
Just checked back a page for a vote count and if I voted for Blade, which I don't want to do anyway, it would cause a tie.
If a late, late, late bandwagon is willing to on Barkeep I will switch to him.
If CW switches to blade and you vote blade there will be no tie.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:00 PM
And you still didn't prove how I was trumpeting saldana as a Thing.
Actually reviewing your posts, after you voted saldana you made like 5 posts, almost all entirely useless...so you didnt trumpet all day, i was mistaken there
Abe Sargent
04-20-2006, 06:00 PM
Actually, since we've all voted, I beileve that our esteemed GM can call time at any moment.
-Anxiety
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:00 PM
Is there anyone out there who wishes to abstain from the big 4? If so I would like to try and consolidate our votes as much as possible so maybe we could bring somebody over.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:00 PM
This is what I mean about you not reading.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:01 PM
Actually reviewing your posts, after you voted saldana you made like 5 posts, almost all entirely useless...so you didnt trumpet all day, i was mistaken there
w00t! I got you to admit you were wrong!
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:01 PM
Post #1018
That doesnt fly, you said in 374 why your reasoning for day 1 wasnt enough for a day 2 vote, and how you know were far more certain he was not a thing then day 1...thats a conversion move if ive ever seen 1.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 06:01 PM
Wow am I thrilled that unzipping my fly is going to prove to be totally useless now.
Guess what? Unless there IS a bodyguard out there, if I'm voted today, the odds of me getting converted go from high to damn near 100%. The Things can't afford to do otherwise.
Can say all you want about how only a Thing doesn't want to be tested, but voting me is going to fuck us.
I hadn't even thought about this night's possible conversion, but that just makes it absolutely impossible for CW to be a Thing. Test him tomorrow, fine. But testing him today seems like a waste.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:01 PM
This is what I mean about you not reading.
Directed towards Blade. Too many damn posts at once. :)
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 06:03 PM
I hadn't even thought about this night's possible conversion, but that just makes it absolutely impossible for CW to be a Thing. Test him tomorrow, fine. But testing him today seems like a waste.
And tomorrow, just like today, someone will make an excuse why he shouldn't be tested that day, either. No, he needs to be tested, and tested tonight, otherwise he never will be.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:03 PM
Since apparently there's noone else moving to Dubb.
Unvote Dubb
Vote Blade
Even though I'm pretty damn certain Blade is fine and Dubb is our Thing.
mckerney
04-20-2006, 06:05 PM
unvote blade
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:06 PM
I already responded to this.
I had asked for it but you never answered it to my satisifaction. I really think we've fucked up today.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:06 PM
That doesnt fly, you said in 374 why your reasoning for day 1 wasnt enough for a day 2 vote, and how you know were far more certain he was not a thing then day 1...thats a conversion move if ive ever seen 1.
You do realize that you're arguing that I wanted saldana (a known Thing) dead right?
Anyhow, Post #374 talked about day 1. Post #375 talked about day 2. A lot happened inbetween those times. To be clear, there wasn't a real candidate on day 2 other than Barkeep (who claimed the kill). Again, I voted for saldana since the information was the same and his reaction was somewhat curious.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 06:06 PM
And tomorrow, just like today, someone will make an excuse why he shouldn't be tested that day, either. No, he needs to be tested, and tested tonight, otherwise he never will be.
You're oversimplifying. Assume he's the seer, unconverted: The Things HAVE to convert him tonight, otherwise he gets another view. So on Day 4 he'll definitely have my vote. I think we can clean things up before day 4, though.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:06 PM
I had asked for it but you never answered it to my satisifaction. I really think we've fucked up today.
Well, if I didn't answer to your satisfaction, why didn't you say so?
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:07 PM
Actually, since we've all voted, I beileve that our esteemed GM can call time at any moment.
-Anxiety
I'm guessing we still have some time, disregarding the recent vote changes, as Schmidty has been late coming around.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:07 PM
Since apparently there's noone else moving to Dubb.
Unvote Dubb
Vote Blade
Even though I'm pretty damn certain Blade is fine and Dubb is our Thing.
I sooo called he would swap and not let himself be tested...and hes setting it up for dubb to get tested tomorrow...the pieces are starting to fall just like i expected:
So its basically a tie as i doubt Coffee will keep his vote on dubb and let himself be tested currently. Maybe im mistaken though, which would be a bad thing with what i could imply
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:07 PM
I had asked for it but you never answered it to my satisifaction. I really think we've fucked up today.
These are really two seperate statements and thoughts.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:08 PM
Well, if I didn't answer to your satisfaction, why didn't you say so?
I did but I pulled a Blade and buried it in a longer post. I can go back and find it if you'd like.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:08 PM
And tomorrow, just like today, someone will make an excuse why he shouldn't be tested that day, either. No, he needs to be tested, and tested tonight, otherwise he never will be.
Hi! This is Mr. Logic! Let's play my game!
Let's pretend for a minute that every word I have said is the truth.
Situation: I am voted tonight, and cleared.
Result:
Either converted, which is the obvious play.
Or not converted, because either way, my credibility is shot. I almost certainly have to be tested tomorrow as well.
How is this useful to the scientific community?
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:09 PM
You do realize that you're arguing that I wanted saldana (a known Thing) dead right?
Anyhow, Post #374 talked about day 1. Post #375 talked about day 2. A lot happened inbetween those times. To be clear, there wasn't a real candidate on day 2 other than Barkeep (who claimed the kill). Again, I voted for saldana since the information was the same and his reaction was somewhat curious.
No, you wanted it to appear like you did...when you voted him it put him into a 4-way tie...and barkeep looked the likely canidate to be tested. Your move was innocuous, and if saldana ever did die you could trumpet your voting record(which you already have)...its all soo simple
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:09 PM
Hi! This is Mr. Logic! Let's play my game!
Let's pretend for a minute that every word I have said is the truth.
Situation: I am voted tonight, and cleared.
Result:
Either converted, which is the obvious play.
Or not converted, because either way, my credibility is shot. I almost certainly have to be tested tomorrow as well.
How is this useful to the scientific community?
one word: bodyguard
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:10 PM
I did but I pulled a Blade and buried it in a longer post. I can go back and find it if you'd like.
Nevermind then. doh! I guess I didn't read as closely as I should.
path12
04-20-2006, 06:11 PM
Is there anyone out there who wishes to abstain from the big 4? If so I would like to try and consolidate our votes as much as possible so maybe we could bring somebody over.
Got anyone in mind? This very well could be one huge clusterfuck.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:11 PM
I did but I pulled a Blade and buried it in a longer post. I can go back and find it if you'd like.
Did I answer it so it makes sense? I don't think there's anything else I can remember from that. It was like on Monday and today's Thursday. :)
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:11 PM
one word: bodyguard
One response: The ONLY way for that to work is if the bodyguard protects me, AND comes out tomorrow saying it. At which point, the Seer's most useful Other Role is immediately targeted for conversion.
That's also assuming: He's not already a convert AND there is one.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:12 PM
I could move my vote from Blade. I think he's just being obtuse right now. I don't think CW is a Thing. I'm not sure about dubb. Beyond that though, I have no idea.
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 06:12 PM
You're oversimplifying. Assume he's the seer, unconverted: The Things HAVE to convert him tonight, otherwise he gets another view. So on Day 4 he'll definitely have my vote. I think we can clean things up before day 4, though.
You're assuming he's unconverted. I'm assuming he's already converted. However, if he is untested, the Things will conver someone else, I believe.
All that is conjecture, though, since I believe him to already be a Thing. As the time grows closer, his posts are getting more and more panicy, another giveaway of his Thingness.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:12 PM
Dola: Barring the public bodyguard tomorrow, do you honestly think anyone is going to believe I haven't been converted tomorrow?
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:13 PM
Gonna take a shower and get ready for Survivor. I'll check back in one last time before 8 EST. In a way, the vote needs to go to one of the Big 4. If not, we go through this again tomorrow.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 06:13 PM
I'm out for the night. Good luck fellow scientists.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:13 PM
One response: The ONLY way for that to work is if the bodyguard protects me, AND comes out tomorrow saying it. At which point, the Seer's most useful Other Role is immediately targeted for conversion.
That's also assuming: He's not already a convert AND there is one.
No, id openly assume that if you come up clean it would be no question your protected. As a thing, i wouldnt even bother trying. Its 2 days from now id worry. He doesnt need to come out, nothing...if you come up clean as the seer, it goes without saying the bodyguard has your back...i dont see this as he has to reveal or something..
Not all roles have to reveal themselves to be effective ;)
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:13 PM
You're assuming he's unconverted. I'm assuming he's already converted. However, if he is untested, the Things will conver someone else, I believe.
All that is conjecture, though, since I believe him to already be a Thing. As the time grows closer, his posts are getting more and more panicy, another giveaway of his Thingness.
Wrong, he's getting pissed at the fact that THE SAME GOD DAMN THING that happened to me in X-Com is happening again.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:14 PM
Got anyone in mind? This very well could be one huge clusterfuck.
Well my votes on Swaggs but I'm not deadset on him, and he's posted a good post since my vote, and haven't had a chance to pull posts. My list of 5 and a half I'd gladly try and build a case against, in no particular order:
Swaggs
WVU
Tangle
Cronin
with Jeeber being the half.
path12
04-20-2006, 06:15 PM
BTW Barkeep, as a delayed dola to my last post -- I've got about 30 minutes before I'm gone until after lynch, so if there is a logical argument for someone else I'm willing to listen to it, but my time is limited and I've gotta go finish off an analysis which is gonna take 10-15 minutes....
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 06:15 PM
Wrong, he's getting pissed at the fact that THE SAME GOD DAMN THING that happened to me in X-Com is happening again.
I wasn't in the X-Com game, so I don't know what you're referencing.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:15 PM
And whilst I calm down, I must also HAPPILY note, I have friday and monday off work. WHOO! I have company coming over soon, so I doubt I'll be around much longer. If we can get enough people to move away from Blade, I'll swap. Preferably Dubb or WVU.
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 06:16 PM
You're assuming he's unconverted. I'm assuming he's already converted. However, if he is untested, the Things will conver someone else, I believe.
All that is conjecture, though, since I believe him to already be a Thing. As the time grows closer, his posts are getting more and more panicy, another giveaway of his Thingness.
Well, if you assume he's converted, he needs to be tested today, duh.
So assume he's unconverted, since we're not talking about testing him today: I've said my piece on that already, and won't rehash it here.
If he's unconverted, the Things HAVE TO CONVERT HIM TONIGHT - if they don't, he gets another view. They HAVE TO - doing otherwise would be like pitching to Albert Pujols with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs in the ninth inning with a pitcher on deck and no pinch hitters available.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:17 PM
I wasn't in the X-Com game, so I don't know what you're referencing.
Real simple. Came out with my role, had TWO aliens fingered. The aliens, led by hoops, played some AMAZING misdirection, discredited me, and got my ass killed. Same thing happening here.
Honesty kills me in these games every god damned time.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:17 PM
And whilst I calm down, I must also HAPPILY note, I have friday and monday off work. WHOO! I have company coming over soon, so I doubt I'll be around much longer. If we can get enough people to move away from Blade, I'll swap. Preferably Dubb or WVU.
Id do dubb over WVU, and id be willing, but not happy, to go there. I dont have any dead set info on anyone, and really wish we tested CW...but im tired of leading this argument when RA keeps debating utterly pointless topics and CW isnt even willing to debate
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:18 PM
Well, if you assume he's converted, he needs to be tested today, duh.
So assume he's unconverted, since we're not talking about testing him today: I've said my piece on that already, and won't rehash it here.
If he's unconverted, the Things HAVE TO CONVERT HIM TONIGHT - if they don't, he gets another view. They HAVE TO - doing otherwise would be like pitching to Albert Pujols with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs in the ninth inning with a pitcher on deck and no pinch hitters available.
And if your the bodyguard dont you HAVE TO PROTECT him tonight?? Checks and balances are in place if hes clean cronin
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:19 PM
Id do dubb over WVU, and id be willing, but not happy, to go there. I dont have any dead set info on anyone, and really wish we tested CW...but im tired of leading this argument when RA keeps debating utterly pointless topics and CW isnt even willing to debate
What exactly can I debate? I'm either lying or I'm not. Every word I have said since my reveal has been true, I've held absolutely nothing back, even stuff that may be to my detriment. There ain't a whole helluva lot else I can say.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:20 PM
Company's here soon. Fuck it.
Unvote Blade
Vote Dubb
You wanna follow me, fine.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:21 PM
What exactly can I debate? I'm either lying or I'm not. Every word I have said since my reveal has been true, I've held absolutely nothing back, even stuff that may be to my detriment. There ain't a whole helluva lot else I can say.
And neither can i, ive said all i can, yet RA continues to attack my posts, cronin continues to attack my logic, and you flat out avoid my arguments...like the bodyguard comment. If you come up clean, why would the bodyguard not protect you tonight?
st.cronin
04-20-2006, 06:22 PM
Company's here soon. Fuck it.
Unvote Blade
Vote Dubb
You wanna follow me, fine.
you're my boy blue
unvote blade
vote dubb
I think he's the second Thing. Read his posts today: They're obviously manipulative.
Also, I am off to class, for real this time. Good luck boys.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:23 PM
And neither can i, ive said all i can, yet RA continues to attack my posts, cronin continues to attack my logic, and you flat out avoid my arguments...like the bodyguard comment. If you come up clean, why would the bodyguard not protect you tonight?
I responded briefly to this up above.
You're assuming: There still is, or ever was a bodyguard. I'm hoping like hell there is.
Further, if there is, and he, as he should, protect me tonight, he HAS to reveal himself tomorrow, or I retain zero credibility. At which point, HE is the biggest target for conversion. We get one night's use out of him.
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 06:23 PM
If I were a Thing, I'd convert someone other than Coffee, as I would be under the assumption that the bodyguard would be protecting him. You don't try to convert someone EVERYONE thinks you're gonna, otherwise it's a wasted turn.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:24 PM
Did I answer it so it makes sense? I don't think there's anything else I can remember from that. It was like on Monday and today's Thursday. :)
Here's what you answered
Unfortunately, when you're looking at so many posts sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. Post 374 was why I voted for him on Day 1. Post 375 was my vote for him on Day 2. I can't remember what happened in those ten minutes. Boss came into my office? What I read in that is that I explained why I voted for him on Day 1 in the first post which was totally separate from the next post where I voted for him on Day 2. Obviously a lot happened between Day 1 and Day 2.
Here are the orignal posts which we calling into question:
LOL. That was great!
Anyhow, again my suspicion of you was not much at all. Enough for a day 1 vote, but I'm not sure about a Day 2 vote based upon the whole "Regular" thing. Looking back, I worded my posts incorrectly; I was far less certain of you being a Thing than you thought I thought. Your reaction was a little strange, but whatever... :)
Followed only 10 minutes later by
VOTE SALDANA
Sorry man. I just don't follow your logic (but maybe that's because I'm illogical). I welcome any votes against me so I know I'm cleared; however, if I am cleared tonight, then it will waste a day of voting. I don't agree with voting for Barkeep, since he does seem to be on the level. You're on his list of six, so I'm going for you.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:25 PM
I responded briefly to this up above.
You're assuming: There still is, or ever was a bodyguard. I'm hoping like hell there is.
Further, if there is, and he, as he should, protect me tonight, he HAS to reveal himself tomorrow, or I retain zero credibility. At which point, HE is the biggest target for conversion. We get one night's use out of him.
Name a game that didnt have a bodyguard..i cant...its all just you reasoning why not to get tested...which is your perogative of course
To be honest i feel like this dubb swap is another attempt to not get tested. You felt you would get tested over me, and so now you want a late rush on dubb...if you get away with it, ill be quite sad
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:26 PM
If I were a Thing, I'd convert someone other than Coffee, as I would be under the assumption that the bodyguard would be protecting him. You don't try to convert someone EVERYONE thinks you're gonna, otherwise it's a wasted turn.
Thank you, im glad someone else is thinking clearly
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 06:27 PM
Company's here. I'm out.
Blade6119
04-20-2006, 06:29 PM
Then thats my que to head out for the night as well...ill be back in like 2 and a half hours, or as i like to call it just late enough to not stop the things from getting free ;)
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:31 PM
Name a game that didnt have a bodyguard..i cant...its all just you reasoning why not to get tested...which is your perogative of course
To be honest i feel like this dubb swap is another attempt to not get tested. You felt you would get tested over me, and so now you want a late rush on dubb...if you get away with it, ill be quite sad
Blade and other cocksuckers:
I really don't think he's getting away with shit. I think we've been looking in the entirely fucking wrong places. There are likely two shiteaters out there and all we've been doing is ramming each other's assholes all day in the hopes that something will pentrate. Well guess what boys: you haven't shot yet. So I woul dlove for somebody to help me, as my job has been far busier then expected, use these last 90 minutes to look at somebody besides the four fuckers we've been talking about all day long.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:31 PM
Then thats my que to head out for the night as well...ill be back in like 2 and a half hours, or as i like to call it just late enough to not stop the things from getting free ;)
Where have I seen this before? Oh that's right when you claimed three fucking times last night to be going to bed. See ya in 30 minutes.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:33 PM
Oh and there's no such fucking word as que. There is cue, which is what you meant, and queue which is the british fuckers word for line, dumb shits, but as much as my scrabble loving self would love for there to be a word que there just isn't.
path12
04-20-2006, 06:33 PM
Well my votes on Swaggs but I'm not deadset on him, and he's posted a good post since my vote, and haven't had a chance to pull posts. My list of 5 and a half I'd gladly try and build a case against, in no particular order:
Swaggs
WVU
Tangle
Cronin
with Jeeber being the half.
I'm not buying Swaggs as much right now. My list other than CW/RA/Dubb would probably be Cronin, Anxiety and I'll join you with a half for Jeeber.
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 06:33 PM
I responded briefly to this up above.
You're assuming: There still is, or ever was a bodyguard. I'm hoping like hell there is.
Further, if there is, and he, as he should, protect me tonight, he HAS to reveal himself tomorrow, or I retain zero credibility. At which point, HE is the biggest target for conversion. We get one night's use out of him.
By this logic, you'll never be tested because you'll use this exact same argument each night. No, it should end tonight and get the tested over.
If's I'm wrong and you're clean, we have time to recover and move into a different direction.
If I'm right and you're not tested, you never will be and it'll be the end of the game for us.
To those who are undecided: if we do not test Coffee tonight, I can assure you him and his defenders will assure he never will be. If you let his logic dictate your decision, that same logic will still work the next night. Let's at least make sure he'll clean this night -- the rest of the game will feel itself out on it's own.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:34 PM
Ok so I think I'm going to look at tangle since hoops already has his vote there. It's only 31 posts so I'm hoping to knock it out in about 15 minutes if I'm not interupted here at work.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:35 PM
I'm not buying Swaggs as much right now. My list other than CW/RA/Dubb would probably be Cronin, Anxiety and I'll join you with a half for Jeeber.
Hoops checked out anxiety earlier. You see anything good there? Instead of tangle I'll check out cronin instead then for ya path. That's 101 posts though so it'll be more like 45 minutes.
path12
04-20-2006, 06:39 PM
Hoops checked out anxiety earlier. You see anything good there? Instead of tangle I'll check out cronin instead then for ya path. That's 101 posts though so it'll be more like 45 minutes.
Actually, I'm the one who checked Anxiety. It's probably first game things but there were definitely some weird vibes there. I don't think there's any way we could get a consensus there for today. I don't have 45 minutes, but what kind of feel to you get from Cronin so far? He seems very convinced and says he was all along, but some of his earlier posts I read yesterday had me thinking he was not as settled as he'd like us to believe.
Anyone else? Or is it just me....I'll freely admit I have trouble reading him.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:41 PM
Cronin has hinted at being an informed shit all game long and the sister-screwer still hasn't told us jackshit. I'm doing the post recap now but that be my impression without going deeper.
path12
04-20-2006, 06:44 PM
And.....nothin'. Nobodys moving anywhere by the looks of it, BK.
Well, fuck. I'm gonna have to leave it where it is. Not thrilled, but don't see any better choice that's gonna get any traction.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:46 PM
Ok I'm going to go ahead and
Unvote Swaggs
Vote St.Cronin
Based on early posts alone.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:46 PM
UNVOTE BLADE 6119
VOTE DUBB93
Might as well do this. I'll follow CW since I believe he's the seer. Also, the way I see it right now, it'll be either CW or dubb at this point. If it's CW, at the very least we net some knowledge.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 06:47 PM
I'm also out until after the lynch. Survivor and all that.
mckerney
04-20-2006, 06:47 PM
Vote St.Cronin
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 06:53 PM
I don't have any real read on Cronin, so could be persuaded to switch to him. What's the logic on him being a possible Thing?
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:54 PM
Still going through things, but imporant fact:
Cronin was only ever taken off the original list of non brilliants because Qwik voted for him and was the 3rd vote to do so when the vote leader had four. It was argued to be too close a margin play.
I am feeling all sorts of bad vibes from his early posts and am now thinking there's a high liklihood that he might be an original shiteater.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 06:55 PM
I don't have any real read on Cronin, so could be persuaded to switch to him. What's the logic on him being a possible Thing?
I'm working through his posts now. I will point out what I find suspicious when I am done though. I am at post 348 only so I do have a bit to go. I will work quickly.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:03 PM
Looks like people have had quite a few thouhts while I was doing the daily commute ... I'll post updated votes when I catch up.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 07:11 PM
Well cronin's actions do him credit yesterday. I am up to 749 and having more doubts. Should finish in about 10 minutes or so unless he went wild on posts today.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 07:16 PM
Ok I'm going to finish cronin but I think he's clean now despite an awfully suspicious start. Instead I'm going to go after a sparring budy of his yesterday
Unvote cronin
Vote WVU
At this point I have no expectation of getting a majority, but I would like to get my vote right before they fuckers assimilate me tonight.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:20 PM
Barkeep, I think I liked the vote better for both Swaggs and Cronin, but I still will go with the appointed green party candidate instead of Warlord (who I believe) or Dubb (decent chance bodyguard was on him, only one night to be converted instead of two, too obvious a play for a solo Thing last night).
UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE WVUFAN
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:22 PM
Updated votes, as of Post #1218:
Blade - Anxiety (696)
Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985), Tanglewood (1125)
Dubb - JeeberD (952), Coffee (1188), Cronin (1190), Raiders (1209)
Cronin - mckerney (1211)
WVU - Barkeep (1217), Hoopsguy (1218)
Lets be careful that we don't end up with a tie this evening. Could happen with the 6-4 margin right now ...
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 07:23 PM
Hoops you around until lynch? Would love to discuss this with you as soon as I finish this fucking recap.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:27 PM
I think so.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:30 PM
mckerney, what prompted your vote change? You and Cronin both seemed pretty dug in on Blade earlier. Did he present an argument that moved you or did you think that it was a lost cause that he would get enough votes tonight?
dubb93
04-20-2006, 07:30 PM
I'm around again, but not to lynch. Can't believe everyone wants me tested again. If you would like to, go for it but CW is the much better play.
Again, my vote is staying where it is and I'm about to go watch survivor. If you are up for a big circle of clearing me go for it, but at some point you clowns are going to have to quit voting me and actually start looking for a thing.
Swaggs
04-20-2006, 07:35 PM
I gotta take off for a bit.
Looks like there are enough people around to keep a tie from happening.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 07:35 PM
So hoops what do you like about cronin?
What I didn't like about WVU is that he came around at the same time his team would have really needed him to come around, that is when he's the only shitface there. That was a strike against him.
But I'm far more interested in talking about cronin who I find to be a fascinating character this game.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 07:38 PM
Let's look at cronin's 101 posts, shall we?
St.Cronin
84 -
game on, you scientifisizzic bizzitches
Now who's breaking out the fucking language? Hmm?
86 - Has 15 page paper to do
92 - Agrees with anxiety about the (stupid) ritual of claiming to be a regular villager
105 - Makes what I believe to be a meaningless movie reference
109 - Votes for schmidty
113 - Meaningless post
148 - Votes for jeeber for admittedly no reason
157 -
I see this game as very heavily slanted towards the Thing(s). Without knowing what the special roles are, my strategy (were I a thing) would simply be to add the better, more experienced players to our side. If they last more than about 2 nights, they will likely win.
Of course, they might only start out with 1 Thing - that would change things a bit.
246 - Says he doesn't understand the game and is just a scientist
256 - Votes for dubb saying Dubb's the one he'd have tried to convert as a shitface
273 - Feels Jeeber is a bad conversion target as he is a likely bodyguard protect
295 - Doesn't like us discussing the brilliant part
297 - Asks how we know that Qwik was a shitface
301 - Asks how I knew Qwik was a shitface
302- Clarifies that he meant before I kill him
304 - Suggests we test Qwik's remains to find out if I'm telling the truth
305 - Wants discussion on finding an original versus converted shitface
313 - Thinks that I am not the way to go (though not that I'm innocent). Wants to go after the best player, who is dubb
318 - Meaningless post about my fucking language
322 - Wants to know what signs I saw
334 - Doesn't like the idea that people think there was not a conversion
343 - Doesn't like my list. Votes for me.
348 - Thinks finding an original or converted shitface is all the same
390 - Still doesn't understand game. Thinks it's impossible for shitfaces to lose.
401 - Has hypethesis but needs me tested first
403 - Thinks there is more to my role
410 - Vote is staying on me. Views it as win-win
498 - Votes Raiders with no explanation
502 - When asked to explain vote thinks there is one person out there with proof of something
505 - Unvotes Raiders
506 - Thought Raiders voted for me
508 - Votes dubb, as a convert
521 - Thinks it's an all or nothing day for Shitfaces. If villagers miss they are back to square 1
523 - First choice is raiders, second me, as converted shitface
527 - Feels a vote for saldana is a clearing gesture
533 - In response to Blade saying that a shitface could have flipped to save saldana
That scenario only works IF the vote swap hadn't worked. If it had forced a tie and nobody got tested, or if had Barkeep had tested clean, then the Things maybe get another convert, saldana would still would have been one suspect among several, and then the move would have worked.
Which, incidentally, is another reason why Barkeep is a suspect in my mind.
537 - Saying that a forced tie was possible
540 - Reminds blade that a successful test means no night cycle
545 - Agrees with a post hoops made stating that he is surprised the shitface didn't try to save saldana. Votes for Blade.
547 -
Of course it could've created a tie. Raiders could have typed unvote saldana, vote Jeeber. That would've made a tie.
I'm starting to like Blade as a thing ... he's usually very logical.
623 - Meaningless post
636 - States if dubb is a scientist wants people to look closely at those who voted for both dubb and myself
642 - Points out that all shitfaces are converts at one point or another
645 - Agrees that with a RA point that perhaps we can assume Qwik is not a shitface
722 - Doesn't want to vote for CW as we need to find a shitface everyday. Votes for Blade
725 - Believes CW is the seer
727 - Doesn't understand why CW as former seer current shitface would come foward
730 - Argues that if CW argues for somebody who is clean, one of them gets tested the following day
731 - Argues downside to CW's ploy, with RA getting tested, is very large
737 - Responding to WVU about a shitface clearing a villager
No, I disagree - I think a Thing would only bust out this strategy if one of their own were about to get tested. Or, possibly, they might use it as an endgame strategy. So if RA is clean, then CW is clean, and vice versa. I mean, I know that in this game the bad play is sometimes the good play, but all the attention was on RA: Who had CW as a real suspect?
742 - Argues CW coming foward makes sense only if he knows both are clean
749 -
Not to get testy, but you're not remotely addressing the logic that I'm presenting. Coffee was NOT a suspect. Assuming he's a Thing, why bust out a new strategy? There's absolutely ZERO upside, unless both he and RA are Things - then it could maybe buy them another day. But the downside is enormous in that situation. It's a massively risky strategy.
Possibility 1: CW is seer, and RA is clean. I would have done the same thing he did.
Possibility 2: CW is Thing, and RA is clean. In this case, why not let RA get tested? CW would then get one more Thing.
Possibility 3: CW is Thing, and RA is Thing: Here the strategy would make SOME sense, but it would also be highly risky, because some players would want to test CW right away (as you do). Others would still want to test RA, either way CW or RA gets tested, they lose a night cycle, and whichever one didn't get bbqed first, gets bbqed second
751 - Argues we should vote for blade since 1. Voted for dubb 2. When saldana was on the block argued to test me 3. Been out of character
752 - Asumes that WVU is clean based on his absence
754 - wonders what UTR means
758 - Thinks missing two votes would take UTR too far
763 - Meaningless post
780 - Believes if CW and RA are both things, would have made sense to wait
781 - Reminds WVU that as soon as CW came out people were arguing he should be tested
808 - Has been anti-Blade for a while
811 - Is confused by a question from hoops
826 - Believes that between either dubb or RA Blade voted for a villager
833 - Doesn't believe in the CW/RA theory
839 - Reminds people that he's voted for Blade before. Thinks Blade's style of posting has been unusual.
849 - Responding to Blade, says that he hasn't been worried about the quantity of Blade's posts
854 - Thinks there are 2 shitfaces. Suggests me and Jeeber as possiblities besides Blade
874 - Says he voted for Blade early in the cycle
883 - Thinks he knows who the convert is but is going to wait to say
889 - Thinks voting record can be accurate
899 - Gives an addmittedly confusing post about the validity of voting records but basically says he uses it when deciding how to vote
903 - Doesn't take the game personally
906 - Tries to convince hoops to vote for Blade
937 - Thinks that the longer the vote goes the more likely it is for Blade NOT to be tested
951 - Trusts hoop but not dubb. If Blade is clean would reverse that
954 - Meaningless
957 - Insult towards Jeeber
973 - Meaningless
975 - MEaningless
980 - Thinks ability to convert is pretty fantastic
983 - Thinks I WAS a scientist
984 - Which means less and less as game goes on
1057 -
I see that apparently CW is now in the lead to be tested. I am more sure that he is NOT a Thing than that Blade IS a Thing.
I have played this game mostly close to the vest. I will continue to do so: I have my suspects and Blade is at the top of the list. CW is one of about three of you that I am sure is NOT a Thing. For today.
My vote stands. I hope the rest of you come to your senses about CW.
1059 - Admits he misplayed at start, but thinks he has it now
1062 - Again says CW's reveal makes no sense if he's not clean
1067 - Again argues fake reveals are an end game strategy
1068 -
I am not keeping any information close. What I am holding onto are THEORIES which I will bust out when the time comes. You see, I think I know who the two things are: Blade and another. Once we burn Blade, I will post my thoughts on the other one. Keeping it close to the vest allows him to expose himself even more.
1077 - Thinks its goofy for Blade to think CW and RA are shitfaces
1081 - Refuses to say he's brilliant but does claim to be a scientist
1117 - Stresses importance of finding a shitface as night cycle invalidates the test
1122 - Again doesn't understand the idea of testing someone to validate which then is invalidated
1124 - Wonders if I am bad does that make Qwik clean in response to a tangle post
1130 - Encourages tangle to vote concious and let someone else break the tie
1132 - Says when lynch is
1152 - Says testing CW tomorrow is fine just not tonight
1159 - Says CW HAS to be converted tonight lest he get another view
1176 - Says he's out for the night
1183 - About CW
Well, if you assume he's converted, he needs to be tested today, duh.
So assume he's unconverted, since we're not talking about testing him today: I've said my piece on that already, and won't rehash it here.
If he's unconverted, the Things HAVE TO CONVERT HIM TONIGHT - if they don't, he gets another view. They HAVE TO - doing otherwise would be like pitching to Albert Pujols with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs in the ninth inning with a pitcher on deck and no pinch hitters available.
1190 - Votes for dubb, for real this time
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 07:40 PM
Unvote WVU
Vote st.cronin
On the off chance we can get a majority.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:45 PM
Well, at the moment I kind of feel like he has been all over the map. I don't know if there is enough time for me to look up all of the posts so I'll go from memory and try to find them if my recollection doesn't jive with what you have seen.
Day 1 - no impressions at all
Day 2 - wanted us to test you instead of going after Saldana
Day 3 - hard on Blade all day, but now is on Dubb
All along the way he has hinted at having theories, but not really sharing them. I can respect that; it isn't the way I play the game, but every makes what they think are the best decisions. I don't know if he was barking up the wrong tree with Blade, but the last-minute switch (following CW) from Blade to Dubb followed by off-to-class makes it hard to understand his thinking.
In comparison, I think WVU has staked a strong position here (not one that I agree with, as I think he is incorrect) and maintained it even in the face of criticism on multiple fronts. Wolves tend to be more adaptive creatures.
I don't have a ton of experience playing against either of these guys, so I don't trust my gut as much as I do with the four guys who are up for review today. But gut says that WVU is on our side today (or last two days, depending on how you look at Day 3).
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:49 PM
I'll take a read through those posts now, thanks for the recap.
In case I don't finish them before the deadline (and because I believe Warlord and that we are going to be wasting the day here):
UNVOTE WVUFAN
VOTE ST. CRONIN
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 07:54 PM
Okay, since I think both Coffee and Dubb are clean and there are a few questionable things brought up in Barkeep's analysis, I will move to Cronin if we can guarentee a majority.
Currently, it's Coffee 6, Dubb 4, Cronin 3. If I move Coffee to Cronin without a guarentee, then it makes the possibility of someone swwoping in for a tie too high to risk it.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 07:55 PM
Great, 4 in the thread, 3 on Cronin already and want who wants to move, but we still wouldn't get a majority.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:56 PM
Agree with you on the risk, Tanglewood. And at the moment it looks pretty quiet in here after two wicked busy days. Weird.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 07:58 PM
BTW, this is the first time I've had enough time to read through one of the post recaps line-by-line. Thanks for doing this Barkeep, as I know it must have taken a lot of work.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 08:00 PM
Well, we're going to find out if we've got a seer or not I guess.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 08:01 PM
Barkeep, Post #1225
What I didn't like about WVU is that he came around at the same time his team would have really needed him to come around, that is when he's the only shitface there. That was a strike against him.
Barkeep, WVU came in after sitting out the day where we believe there was only one Thing. If he was the Day 1 convert I think they could have used him during the Day 2 (part 1) vote where Saldana went down 5-4.
Raiders Army
04-20-2006, 08:02 PM
Back, but only temporarily. I'm out for the rest of the night. If CW was the seer, this was a wasted vote. The only good thing to come out of it is that he, hoops, and I were cleared up until certain points.
WVUFAN
04-20-2006, 08:07 PM
When is the vote deadline?
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 08:09 PM
So I'm still working on what I think about cronin but have been helping people at work and have been delayed. I think this is a good discussion to hav before the conversion though.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 08:10 PM
When is the vote deadline?
7 minutes ago.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 08:16 PM
Ok let me explain what I do and don't like about cronin
Don't Like
*He never used brilliant or was otherwise cleared
*Was stuck on a person all day long, and loudly at that and then moves close to lynch -- TWICE; First with me and now with Blade
*His weird hangup on testing me or testing the remains of Qwik -- only later on in the game to state that we should be trying to find things (just be clear saying I should be tested ins't weird, but the way he's done it has been)
*Has had theories at a few points which he is keeping to himself
Do Like
*His rabid insistence on the stupidity of CW revealing. Time will tell, but he's been a forceful advocate of this being stupid all day long and his logic has been firm and solid
Now the catch is that the thing I do like about him doesn't mean that the don't likes couldn't be accurately revealing him a shitface.
tanglewood
04-20-2006, 08:24 PM
Ok let me explain what I do and don't like about cronin
Don't Like
*He never used brilliant or was otherwise cleared
*Was stuck on a person all day long, and loudly at that and then moves close to lynch -- TWICE; First with me and now with Blade
*His weird hangup on testing me or testing the remains of Qwik -- only later on in the game to state that we should be trying to find things (just be clear saying I should be tested ins't weird, but the way he's done it has been)
*Has had theories at a few points which he is keeping to himself
Do Like
*His rabid insistence on the stupidity of CW revealing. Time will tell, but he's been a forceful advocate of this being stupid all day long and his logic has been firm and solid
Now the catch is that the thing I do like about him doesn't mean that the don't likes couldn't be accurately revealing him a shitface.
These two points have struck me as well.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 08:35 PM
Company gone, deadline is past, no idea where the votes stand.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 08:37 PM
I tend to think that the Things were big fans of the Coffee testing today:
- it means that they are not being tested tonight
- assuming there is a bodyguard (and that he has not been converted), they put him in a tough position both tonight and tomorrow night on who to guard
With that in mind, they probably split their votes up to avoid linkage. So I would look for one on the CW group tonight and the other one probably steered clear of him the whole way to avoid positive or negative attention.
But they (the Things) do have to deal with the seer over the next couple of days. It obviously isn't in their interests to let him keep taking shots. The chess game is on for the moment. Disregard all of this if the Warlord was a lying shitface.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 08:38 PM
Warlord, it looks like you are being tested. Here is what I showed for final vote:
Blade - Anxiety (696)
Coffee - WVUFAN (741), Blade (895), Swaggs (930), Dubb (931), Path (985), Tanglewood (1125)
Dubb - JeeberD (952), Coffee (1188), Cronin (1190), Raiders (1209)
Cronin - mckerney (1211), Barkeep (1227), Hoopsguy (1229)
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 08:40 PM
Three cheers for a bunch of morons/things.
Now that I've gone and happily blown my cover, time to figure out who to view tonight.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 08:45 PM
And while you're waiting, I kindly direct you to re-read the thread with the understanding that I was telling the truth the whole bloody time.
Barkeep49
04-20-2006, 08:45 PM
Three cheers for a bunch of morons/things.
Now that I've gone and happily blown my cover, time to figure out who to view tonight.
Doesn't matter as your word is worth less then that of a torture victim starting as soon as the night results go up.
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 08:47 PM
Doesn't matter as your word is worth less then that of a torture victim starting as soon as the night results go up.
Ayup.
hoopsguy
04-20-2006, 08:51 PM
Did Schmidty post a time that we should expect results tonight?
Coffee Warlord
04-20-2006, 08:52 PM
He's not even showing online right now, so I dunno.
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