WW LXV-- Enter the CUBICLE (GAME OVER! See Post #1625 For Final Game Post)

[Lathum]

off to class now.

[Chief Rum]

All right, everyone.

I am headed out the door to my other job. I feel better, but there's a decent chance I come back from this one. Regardless, deadline will be processed when I get back (or at 10 p.m. EST, if I get back early).

[finkenst]

i'm trying to figure this outstill...
so just voting randomly.

vote Mr. Wednesday

[claphamsa]

Im off to hockey, i wont be back till after the deadline.....

[The Jackal]

Uhm, if it helps, I haven't seen Paris Hilton, and if I did I'd probably slap her.

[The Jackal]

I'm also off until the deadline. Since I don't know most of your styles well, I'm not going to make a premature judgement and sway the final vote. Instead, I'll do this.

vote heinze

[The Jackal]

Err, until after the deadline, I mean. Damned no editing.

[Lathum]

checking in on a break, anyone have a vote count?

[st.cronin]

Should still be 6-5 bulletsponge in the lead.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Uhm, if it helps, I haven't seen Paris Hilton, and if I did I'd probably slap her.

Don't, she's contagious!

[bulletsponge]

im still winning.... erm loosing :(

[Mr. Wednesday]

I have something that feels an awful lot like flu (despite getting a shot this fall). I'm feeling better at the moment because the ibuprofen has kicked in to kill my fever, but my participation may be limited over the next couple of days.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

I feel better about the reason for voting for him than I do the reason for voting for Lathum, although obviously being Day 1, there's not much for the non-wolf to go on.

[RendeR]

*yawn* where's my COFFEE?!?!? Worthless interns, WHERE IS MY COFFEE!!

[Barkeep49]

Not nearly as much activity as I was expecting.

[Lathum]

I agree, thank god!

[mauchow]

Understandable as it is the first day. Can't have it like the last game every time.

I think I'm going to stick with my vote for the time being.

[Lathum]

so Mathmaticaly we are probably going to eliminate a villager tonight. Do we look at the people who voted for the lynched person or the ones that stayed away and voted elsewhere.

[Barkeep49]

I think there was some strange voting, such as Schmidty's votes and Farah's vote on Jackal, that are the prime things in my mind right now regardless of how the vote against bullet turns.

[Lathum]

do we have any non voters?

[path12]

so Mathmaticaly we are probably going to eliminate a villager tonight. Do we look at the people who voted for the lynched person or the ones that stayed away and voted elsewhere.

I think that's going to depend on whether we do lynch a villager or not. If bullet is a wolf, then we can assume that there are wolves from the other team on him and probably wolves from his team on whoever is in second (you, right? i'm still catching up).

[path12]

I think the rationale for the Schmidty vote doesn't make sense. If he's a wolf, he's certainly good enough a player not to come right out and go after a wolf on the other team, especially in a way that contradicts his usual style. I can understand the Lathum votes in that context.

[Barkeep49]

Let's not forget that Lathum was the most endangered today. So purely on that level if BS is human than that would suggest him. But like I said I find Farah's and Schmidty's actions more troubling.

[path12]

Dola, though of course Schmidty would disagree about being a good player. One of the reasons I love having him in the games.

[path12]

What was the odd thing with Farrah's vote? I haven't got there yet.

[Barkeep49]

What was the odd thing with Farrah's vote? I haven't got there yet.
She placed a second vote on a new player for seemingly no reason.

[Lathum]

Let's not forget that Lathum was the most endangered today. So purely on that level if BS is human than that would suggest him.

suggest him what?

[finkenst]

and the deadline

[Barkeep49]

Now that we're after deadline: if I die tonight look at Render. I was expecting him to come after me since he got killed d1 last game and I was a wolf. He's been all nice. I don't know how to analyze that :).

[RendeR]

Deadlines come and Deadlines go, Wolves shed fur and Cubicles blow.

[Barkeep49]

suggest him what?
Suggest him to be a wolf.

[Lathum]

gonna be a long wait for the results

[RendeR]

Now that we're after deadline: if I die tonight look at Render. I was expecting him to come after me since he got killed d1 last game and I was a wolf. He's been all nice. I don't know how to analyze that :).


Analyze this (*************)

[bulletsponge]

this will mark the 3rd WW game in a row where i was voted out first

[path12]

i'm trying to figure this outstill...
so just voting randomly.



Now here's a vote I find off. Fink (OK if I call you Fink?) has been boning up on the game over the past week or so, and now puts out what's frankly a meaningless vote late.

Yeah, I know my vote is meaningless as it turns out also, but at least I had a reason for it and Barkeep hasn't done anything today to make me feel better about him as a fellow department member.

[Lathum]

Suggest him to be a wolf.

so you think if Bulletsponge comes up good I am likely to be a wolf?

[path12]

I'm also off until the deadline. Since I don't know most of your styles well, I'm not going to make a premature judgement and sway the final vote. Instead, I'll do this.

vote heinze

Ditto.

[bulletsponge]

this will mark the 3rd WW game in a row where i was voted out first

at least i played the game closely to what my role asked for :rolleyes:

[path12]

She placed a second vote on a new player for seemingly no reason.

I'm OK with that for some reason. Don't get me wrong, I love having new blood in the games, but you sign up and you're fair game.......though I don't think I'd put a winning vote on a first time player day 1. But when you're new, you tend to die early. And it takes a few games to learn how not to do that. I don't necessarily think we need to give a grace period.

[path12]

this will mark the 3rd WW game in a row where i was voted out first

In hindsight you may want to rethink that licking yourself strategy.

[Barkeep49]

so you think if Bulletsponge comes up good I am likely to be a wolf?
By traditional analysis if bs is a villager, which seems less likely given post 287, you deserve more scrutiny. You started the discussion, I'm just telling you the way I see it.

However, as I've posted several times, I think we find better candidates elsewhere.

[Barkeep49]

In hindsight you may want to rethink that licking yourself strategy.
Agreed.

[Barkeep49]

I'm OK with that for some reason. Don't get me wrong, I love having new blood in the games, but you sign up and you're fair game.......though I don't think I'd put a winning vote on a first time player day 1. But when you're new, you tend to die early. And it takes a few games to learn how not to do that. I don't necessarily think we need to give a grace period.
Yeah I think veteran players tend to get left around as it is. I think a one day grace period is the least we can do.

[bulletsponge]

In hindsight you may want to rethink that licking yourself strategy.


*lick lick* what did you say??

[path12]

*lick lick* what did you say??

:D

[Schmidty]

Man, I see my name got bandied around a lot after I voted this morning. That'll teach me to make an early vote. I think I'll go back to the shadows again.

Seriously though, the ONLY reason I voted for oliegirl, was because I was tired and knew I likely wouldn't have another chance to be on until after I slept; therefore, I looked for any silly, day 1 reason I could.

*shurg*

[Barkeep49]

That explanation basically alleviates my suspicion of schmidty, ftm. Perfectly reasonable explanation for a variation from the pattern.

[Chief Rum]

Well, no shock. Ended up begging off and going home. I will post results shortly.

[Lathum]

That explanation basically alleviates my suspicion of schmidty, ftm. Perfectly reasonable explanation for a variation from the pattern.

not me.

People don't vary from a pattern without an excuse.

[Schmidty]

not me.

People don't vary from a pattern without an excuse.

That was an excuse, and the truth.

Vote for me. Doesn't scare me in the least, fwiw.

[Lathum]

That was a compliment Schmidty.

I was saying you are smart enough of a player not to make a mistake

[Schmidty]

That was a compliment Schmidty.

I was saying you are smart enough of a player not to make a mistake

Man, I've been getting intellectually owned by you lately. I'm gonna start calling you Daddy. :D

[Lathum]

Man, I've been getting intellectually owned by you lately. I'm gonna start calling you Daddy. :D

nah, I just give strange compliments

[bulletsponge]

if im goina get fired im stealing the copier and goin' gansta on it

[Chief Rum]

Day 1 Vote

bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)
Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)
oliegirl (2)-- Alan T (123), Schmidty (134)
The Jackal (2)-- jeheinz (148), Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (208)
Barkeep49 (1)-- path12 (130)
Schmidty (1)-- mauboy1 (135)
Passacaglia (1)-- ntndeacon (136)
Mr. Wednesday (1)-- finkenst (253)
jeheinz (1)-- the Jackal (256)


All right, here's what I got. Seem about right?

[Lathum]

I unvoted Olie and voted Bulletsponge

[Chief Rum]

I unvoted Olie and voted Bulletsponge

Yup, you did. Corrected it.

[mauchow]

Lets see what we got here.....

[Alan T]

Chief needs to hurry. I've been putting off going to bed to see the results of the lynch, but I'm tired! :(

[oliegirl]

Chief needs to hurry. I've been putting off going to bed to see the results of the lynch, but I'm tired! :(

+1

[bulletsponge]

aww poor babies

[claphamsa]

+6 im usualy pased out by now.... silly hockey and adrenaline :P

[Lathum]

I'm wondering if there is some strange mechanic at play here holding things up

[Chief Rum]

The end of the day approaches. You all know what's coming. It seems that bulletsponge is going to be fired.

A few minutes before the end of the day, bulletsponge is asked to go into the Boss's office. She is only there for a few minutes, before she comes out, goes straight to her desk and quietly packs her desk. Which is how she did everything. She was the Observer!

bulletsponge leaves without a word. Is it over?

Not quite. Barkeep49 is asked to come into the Boss's office. He is in there much less long than bulletsponge--and he is mad!

"I work my butt off, and here and this how you treat me?", he says angrily. He storms out of the office, collects his things from his desk and marches out.

The wolves have influenced the Boss to fire Barkeep49! He was just a regular Department Worker.

Role PMs going out shortly.

Tomorrow's deadline is 10 p.m. EST/7 p.m. PDT

[Chief Rum]

I'm wondering if there is some strange mechanic at play here holding things up

Naw, just lots of PMs to process. Sorry for the wait.

[Lathum]

well that wasn't good.

[Lathum]

anyone wanna fess up to outing BK, and why?

[oliegirl]

So is there no action from the wolves? Or was BK's firing the wolf action?

I'm heading to bed, I'll be around most of the day tomorrow...

[Lathum]

So is there no action from the wolves? Or was BK's firing the wolf action?



i didn't think about that

[mauchow]

That is messed up. So Bullet is saved while BK goes home. Got it.

And no wolf action? I find it hard to believe, considering it doesn't look like there are bodyguards of any sort..?

[claphamsa]

Bullet spong is a girl?

[claphamsa]

That is messed up. So Bullet is saved while BK goes home. Got it.

And no wolf action? I find it hard to believe, considering it doesn't look like there are bodyguards of any sort..?
I thinkt hey are both toast.

[Alan T]

That is messed up. So Bullet is saved while BK goes home. Got it.

And no wolf action? I find it hard to believe, considering it doesn't look like there are bodyguards of any sort..?

I think both Bullet and BK were fired from the looks of it. Bullet was the observer while BK was a normal villager.

[Lathum]

I;m confused :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

[st.cronin]

That is messed up. So Bullet is saved while BK goes home. Got it.

And no wolf action? I find it hard to believe, considering it doesn't look like there are bodyguards of any sort..?

I read it that bullet was voted out, and Barkeep was taken out by the wolves. Am I wrong?

[Lathum]

but was BK the night kill?

[SnDvls]

Game Roles & Rules


The Observor One worker is particularly quiet and unassuming, and rather plain. She shows up for work, does it well, and then leaves, and few members of the Department know her more than superficially. As a result, she is rarely noticed. She herself, though, has always prided herself on being observant. She lacks the charisma and influence to discover anyone's role or allegiance, but, ever watchful, she can see when two people are having a meaningful conversation--and when someone goes into the Boss's office.




regarding BS and his sex in this game

[Lathum]

CR, can you clarify?

[mauchow]

Ah, yes, it looks like both are gone.

[Chief Rum]

So is there no action from the wolves? Or was BK's firing the wolf action?

I'm heading to bed, I'll be around most of the day tomorrow...

The second firing, unless stated otherwise, is the wolf's night kill. Barkeep was fired via wolf influence.

[Chief Rum]

That is messed up. So Bullet is saved while BK goes home. Got it.

And no wolf action? I find it hard to believe, considering it doesn't look like there are bodyguards of any sort..?

No, both bullet and Barkeep were fired. Updating the list shortly.

bullet was the lynch victim, and Barkeep was the wolf victim.

[Chief Rum]

Bullet spong is a girl?

bulletsponge, last I checked, is a guy. His character, the Observer, was a girl.

[claphamsa]

u checked?????????????????????

[Chief Rum]

I updated the lynch announcement to be more specific.

All role PMs have been sent, BTW.

[Chief Rum]

u checked?????????????????????

lol...he's not shy.

[Lathum]

OK so we have alot of good stuff to go on.

People who voted for bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)

Path voted for BK.

Now we know they are both villagers. I am operating under the assumption that most wolves are looknig to vote for other wolves.

Now I know I am good so this is who voted for me.

Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)

that leaves- AlanT, Schmidty, JEheinze, Farrah, Mauboy, NTNDeacon, Fink, The Jackel voting for someone else.

of those 8 people I think there are probably a few wolves.

[st.cronin]

OK so we have alot of good stuff to go on.

People who voted for bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)

Path voted for BK.

Now we know they are both villagers. I am operating under the assumption that most wolves are looknig to vote for other wolves.

Now I know I am good so this is who voted for me.

Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)

that leaves- AlanT, Schmidty, JEheinze, Farrah, Mauboy, NTNDeacon, Fink, The Jackel voting for someone else.

of those 8 people I think there are probably a few wolves.

I agree completely with this analysis.

[Lathum]

Right now JeHeinze and TheJackel are pinging me. They both cast meaningless votes and played off each other. My vote will probably go to one of them

[st.cronin]

dola, with the caveat that I don't know Lathum is good ... if Lathum is a wolf that all goes out the window.

But, I'm willing to say Lathum is good, pending somebody outing him as a wolf, and see where that gets us.

[Lathum]

dola- Of course I you can only believe me if you assume I am good, which based on the results I think that is a safe assumption.

[st.cronin]

Ok if we keep this up people will start to assume we're both wolves, Lathum.

[Lathum]

lol

[Alan T]

OK so we have alot of good stuff to go on.

People who voted for bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)

Path voted for BK.

Now we know they are both villagers. I am operating under the assumption that most wolves are looknig to vote for other wolves.

Now I know I am good so this is who voted for me.

Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)

that leaves- AlanT, Schmidty, JEheinze, Farrah, Mauboy, NTNDeacon, Fink, The Jackel voting for someone else.

of those 8 people I think there are probably a few wolves.


I think that is probably a good start as well. It is a bit self serving though as your goal is to obviously push everyone to look away from you. I didn't personally have any issues with you or how you voted yesterday and I personally felt there was alot of fishy people who voted for both BS and you yesterday because most of those votes didn't make much sense to me at all.

Assuming you are good (which we can't really take your word for it), if we wanted to take your analysis a step further, we can pretty easily. Your assumption is that the people who voted for either BS or you are less likely to be a wolf as wolves will want to vote for other wolves (An idea I agree with). So lets look at the people who are left, and see who they voted for. If they voted for someone less likely to be a wolf by your thought process, then they probably are also less likely to be a wolf than those who hit twice on the "wolf probability list" so to speak.

Of the people you singled out, if we took a look of who they voted for and see if they show up on the same list again, you end up with a much smaller selection of people voting for each other. The other names whom voted for people on your "less likely to be a wolf list" I X'd out below.




Jeheniz - Jackal
Farrah - Jackal
Mauboy - Schmidty
The Jackal - Jeheniz

Ntndeacon - X
Fink - X
Alan - X
Schmidty - X

So based on this, we end up with 4 people (Jeheniz, Farrah, Mauboy and the Jackal) that now have popped up multiple times based on the assumption a wolf will vote for another wolf. I still think there was some shady voting for both BS and yourself and think that if you are a wolf also Lathum, then there are alot more names that need to be considered as well.. but for starters this is something to consider.

[Alan T]

blah and of course in the time it took me to write all of that cronin and lathum both tossed in further thoughts along the same lines that I was having.

[Lathum]

Thanks Alan, I was getting to that part but got tied up.

[Lathum]

ANd of course I am trying to persued people from voting me. Isn't that the point?


All I am saying is if I was a wold it would have been easy for the other clan to vote me off. One vote off of BS onto me and another on me and I am gone.

There was enough time before the deadline to make this happen.

[st.cronin]

VOTE FARRAH

I'll get this party started.

[Lathum]

I think there may be something to the Farrah-Jackyl-JeHeinze triangle

[Lathum]

VOTE JEHeinze

[Alan T]

I'm not sure if i have ever played with jeheinz, farrah or the Jackal before.. I've been reading the games from the past two months while I have been busy so I know Ive seen some of jeheinz play at least, but don't know much of the other two.

I'm trying to figure out which way to go with my vote to get the most bang for the buck. It seems to me that if there is something up between the three of them, it would be Jeheinz and Farrah on the same team with the Jackal on the other team. As Jeheinz and the jackal both voted for each other (The jackal chose Jeheinz between the two of them when both had already voted for him), that to me at least shows correlation between the two.

I'm thinking vote either jeheinz or the jackal and see what it says about the other two. Since Lathum already voted jeheinz, I'll go ahead and go there also. Lets see if anyone comes to his rescue or puts heat on the jackal in return.

Vote Jeheinz

[ntndeacon]

OK so we have alot of good stuff to go on.

People who voted for bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)

Path voted for BK.

Now we know they are both villagers. I am operating under the assumption that most wolves are looknig to vote for other wolves.

Now I know I am good so this is who voted for me.

Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)

that leaves- AlanT, Schmidty, JEheinze, Farrah, Mauboy, NTNDeacon, Fink, The Jackel voting for someone else.

of those 8 people I think there are probably a few wolves.

Even though Ihate being in that group of possible wolfies. it does give us a starting point to look at. I do not think that we immediately dismiss a baddie voting for you though. but for today I am fine with voting from that list of folks

[The Jackal]

You've made some good analysis here. The only reason I voted for heinze is because I know in a lot of WW games people jump on people that don't vote on the first day. I didn't see anyone that I felt really deserved a vote so I just put one back on heinze as a record for my activity.

It's possible that farrah and heinze are on the same wolf team or different wolf teams, but the only reason they voted for me was because I'm new/heinze knows me from the other boards.

Now, I know the wolves want to try to influence the rest of the office to vote out the other wolves, but I also think it makes sense that wolves would pile on votes to people they know aren't wolves - one to create more confusion, and two just to get rid of some possibly important office roles. If two or more wolves were just voting for each other back and forth it'd draw a lot of attention - as it has on me/heinze/farrah. Basically, I don't think we can just count out the people that voted for sponge. It's statistically probably that a couple of the eight people mentioned are wolves, but I wouldn't ignore other voters.

However, if this is the lead we are going to go with for now, my vote will probably land on heinze or farrah. Let's see what they have to say for themselves.

[Chief Rum]

Heading out to work.

Any questions please now email me at [email protected]. And hopefully I will be there all day, until 3:30 p.m.

I will be heading home after that, so you all should be able to reach me here via PM, and I will be around to run the deadline at its normal time.

Good luck everyone!

[Dr. Sak]

Although it is nice that Lathum is providing suggestions on who we should look at, I am still not convinced that he is in the clear. First he is one of the ones who voted for bulletsponge, and pretty much put him over the edge for the lynch vote. It was a close vote between the two (Lathum and BS), but it was the late votes, Lathum's included, that put bulletsponge over the edge to get lynched.

Lathum had to realize that bulletsponge was going to vote for him, just to save his own behind and Lathum was the closest in votes to him at the time. So at the time Lathum gave bulletsponge his vote that made it 5-4 so all he needed was one more person (perhaps a wolf on his side) to vote for bulletsponge as a last ditch vote to pretty much guaranteed victory.

Needless to say, I am taking Lathum's theories under advisory, but am not willing to clear him from my wolf list just yet.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

I think there may be something to the Farrah-Jackyl-JeHeinze triangle

I wish. It would be the most action I've had in a long time.

[Passacaglia]

Checking in. I had a sick day yesterday, so I might have to catch up on some stuff at work today.

[claphamsa]

Although it is nice that Lathum is providing suggestions on who we should look at, I am still not convinced that he is in the clear. First he is one of the ones who voted for bulletsponge, and pretty much put him over the edge for the lynch vote. It was a close vote between the two (Lathum and BS), but it was the late votes, Lathum's included, that put bulletsponge over the edge to get lynched.

Lathum had to realize that bulletsponge was going to vote for him, just to save his own behind and Lathum was the closest in votes to him at the time. So at the time Lathum gave bulletsponge his vote that made it 5-4 so all he needed was one more person (perhaps a wolf on his side) to vote for bulletsponge as a last ditch vote to pretty much guaranteed victory.

Needless to say, I am taking Lathum's theories under advisory, but am not willing to clear him from my wolf list just yet.
I agree with this mostly... and since I voted for Lathum yeasterday....

vote lathum

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Dola - I've finished reading through the night's activities. And all I have to say for myself is.....seriously?

I make a random first day vote with a smart ass reason for doing so, and all of a sudden a wolf?

[Lathum]

Although it is nice that Lathum is providing suggestions on who we should look at, I am still not convinced that he is in the clear. First he is one of the ones who voted for bulletsponge, and pretty much put him over the edge for the lynch vote.



Well what the hell else should I do? Stand around and let myself get lynched?

If I was a wolf it would have been easy to get me lynched yesterday.

[Lathum]

I agree with this mostly... and since I voted for Lathum yeasterday....




what do you agree with exactly?

I'm not sure I know anyone who wouldn't vote for the vote leader to save themselves.

[jeheinz72]

Hrm, not a good start.

I get Lathum's analysis, but have some points

- I voted Jackal as a "welcome", I repeated that multiple times. When it came time for me to leave for the day, I pondered moving to a consolidation. But the catch is, I didn't really think any of the leading vote getters were wolves either (it was bullet, olie and Lathum). So it seemed pretty silly of me to move my vote and cast a much more significant one onto someone I didn't really think was a wolf.

- To take Lathum's analysis a step further, I cast the first vote at Jackal, but why would Farrah follow up with a 2nd one unless she seriously wanted Jackal in the discussion. I'd think those two aren't working together, and Farrah's 2nd vote for Jackal stinks more to me than Jackal's vote back on me (which was the same line of thinking as my vote on him).

- The person on Lathum's list (which I agree with minus of course, my inclusion since that is incorrect) is finkenst. He came on, late in the day and basically threw his vote away on a completely new person. He also didn't post hardly at all, I think he posted more in last games' thread than he has here.

Vote Finkenst

[Arles]

OK so we have alot of good stuff to go on.

People who voted for bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)

Path voted for BK.

Now we know they are both villagers. I am operating under the assumption that most wolves are looknig to vote for other wolves.

Now I know I am good so this is who voted for me.

Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)

that leaves- AlanT, Schmidty, JEheinze, Farrah, Mauboy, NTNDeacon, Fink, The Jackel voting for someone else.

of those 8 people I think there are probably a few wolves.
We really don't have much info so far. Therefore, I'm inclined to agree that the "wolves" directed us to go after both bullet and Lathum. This means that either Lathum is a worker or he is a member of a rival wolf group. I'm leaning towards the former right now. What's interesting, though, is that barkeep was the first to vote for bullet - and we know he's a worker.

So, I'm inclined to think there is a wolf in the set of oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262). If Lathum is indeed a worker (again, a stretch now - but it's reasonable given what little info we have), laphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207) or Passacaglia (238) could also be a wolf. Even though this list of 9 includes me, I'm thinking it's the most reasonable starting point.

Right now, we need to start finding groups out. Here's how the vote started:

Clap - Lathum (90)
Bullet - Barkeep (95), Oile (110)
Lathum - Clap (97)
Olie - Alan (123), Schmidty (134)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)

We know that Bullet and Barkeep are OK - which would raise the interest level in Olie and Path. Still, the fact that Barkeep voted for Bullet leads me not to read too much there. At this point everything was spread out and there were many ways to go. Here's the next set of voting:

Clap - <strike>Lathum (90)(160)</strike>
Bullet 3 - Barkeep (95), Oile (110), Arles (163)
Lathum 2 - Clap (97), bsak (162)
Olie 3 - Alan (123), Schmidty (134), Lathum (160)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)

Now, this puts me in the crosshairs a bit as I voted for Bullet, I am not worried by Lathum's vote as changing from Clap (1 vote) to Olie (2-3 v) is a way to prevent him from being voted off. Again, if we assume Lathum is good, bsak's vote is also questionable (like mine).

Next set:
bulletsponge -- Barkeep49 (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), RendeR (199), Lathum (227)
Lathum -- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207)
oliegirl -- Alan T (123), Schmidty (134), <strike>Lathum (160)</strike>
Barkeep49 -- path12 (130)
Schmidty -- mauboy1 (135)
Passacaglia -- ntndeacon (136)
ntndeacon -- Passacaglia (147)
The Jackal -- jeheinz72 (148), Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (208)
jeheinz72 -- bulletsponge (152)

This is the best knowledge set, IMO. Prior to this point, we had Bullet and Olie at 3, with Lathum at 2. After this vote, it moved to Bullet at 4, Lathum at 3 and Ollie at 3. At that point, seeing Lathum switch to Bullet makes sense to save his bacon. But the votes that interest me ate RendeR and SnDvls. IMO, it made sense to go for either Ollie or Bullet at that point and they chose Bullet and Lathum. We know Bullet is safe, which means that RendeR's vote made the difference in voting off Bullet over Ollie. SnDvls' vote could have put Lathum on the blocks had he not switched.

Next, we had two pile on votes by St. Cronin (bullet) and Pass (unvoted ntn for bullet) that helped ensure Bullet goes (with bullet switching to Lathum to save his bacon). Mr Wed also piled on later

So, if you avoid Lathum's status, you end up with these people being potential wolves:
RendeR
Cronin
Pass
Mr Wed
Arles

If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf), then SnDvls is also questionable.

Now, I have the advantage of knowing I am not a wolf. So, I also am going to continue the line of thinking that Lathum is a worker. If those two assumptions are true, and you factor in timing, who they voted for and who was "saved", I'm inclined to go with these three as the most likely wolves:

RendeR
SnDvls
Olie

I chose RendeR as he started the run on Bullet (who we know is safe). I chose SnDvls as he setup the run to be Bullet and Lathum. And I chose Olie as it seemed the "second group of voters" (who I think involve some wolves) seemed to prefer saving her and going after Bullet and Lathum.

With all that in mind, I choose to:

Vote RendeR

[Dr. Sak]

Here is one other thing that has struck me as odd. The next vote after Lathum put his on bulletsponge was St. Cronin (who didn't say much at all in the thread all day). Fast forward to the time after the lynching he is the first one to cast a vote after Lathum's so called detailed analysis. Does he want to get his vote in first since he knows that Lathum could be one of the targets for today? He was involved with saving Lathum's butt on day 1.

Also Lathum before you changed your vote, bulletsponge (who did not vote for you so you can't say it a payback vote) was leading with 4 votes, with you and oliegirl tied at 3 votes a piece. There was no need to panic that early on unless you knew that you and one of your buddies could team up and get rid of someone else.

I don't understand your reasoning for thinking that wolves would target other wolves this early in the game? Why wouldn't they want to get rid of the excess office workers before going after one another?

Finally, Lathum changed his vote 3 times. He first voted clap, then oliegirl, and finished up on bulletsponge. Is it because he is unsure or because he is a wolf and wants to come off as a confused villager?

[Schmidty]

Holy crap. Not only am I a bad WW player, I am also lazy enough to not even read Arlie's post. Then again, I'm going to bed soon, so I guess I wouldn't comprehend it anyway. :)

[Schmidty]

Dola. I'm always amazed by the amount of stuff people get out of day 1 votes/results.

[Lathum]

Also Lathum before you changed your vote, bulletsponge (who did not vote for you so you can't say it a payback vote) was leading with 4 votes, with you and oliegirl tied at 3 votes a piece. There was no need to panic that early on

I stated when I voted for Bulletsponge that I had to go to class and needed to get a self preservation vote in.

[Lathum]

I don't understand your reasoning for thinking that wolves would target other wolves this early in the game? Why wouldn't they want to get rid of the excess office workers before going after one another?



they can only kill each other every third night. If they can get an member of the opposition killed during the day that is a huge bonus for them.

[Lathum]

Finally, Lathum changed his vote 3 times. He first voted clap, then oliegirl, and finished up on bulletsponge. Is it because he is unsure or because he is a wolf and wants to come off as a confused villager?

I was the first person to cast a vote for anyone. Go back and look through some of the games, I am always one of the first to cast a vote. I like to get things going early on. IMO a late day one vote can only make you look suspiscous.

I will also often change my day 1 vote if I see a reason to change it. I went to Oliegirl because I saw something in Schmidtys vote that pinged me and I also wanted to see a couple of clear candidates emerge.

I switched to BS to save my ass, again I ask, wouldn't anyone else have done the same thing?

[Schmidty]

Tension. The other white meat.

That wasn't funny, and I have no idea what it meant, so i should probably leave now. After I have another steak taquito. I'm addicted and I need to gain weight, so it's perfect.

Why am I babbling? Because it's better than drinking a martini before bed. No idea what that meant either.

Vote Sanity

[Arles]

Holy crap. Not only am I a bad WW player, I am also lazy enough to not even read Arlie's post. Then again, I'm going to bed soon, so I guess I wouldn't comprehend it anyway. :)
Yeah, it took about 3 different times over 30 minutes to finish it. I was waiting on responses and some paperwork for a meeting and had time to kill. I figure if I have nothing to hide, why not dump all my logic on the table for everyone to see?

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Yeah, it took about 3 different times over 30 minutes to finish it. I was waiting on responses and some paperwork for a meeting and had time to kill. I figure if I have nothing to hide, why not dump all my logic on the table for everyone to see?

**cough**PROGAME**cough**

[mauchow]

Vote Schmidty again.

I'm going to stay this way until I see legitimate stuff to go on. I like what Arles has put together though, for future reference. I probably won't be changing again today though.

[mauchow]

**cough**PROGAME**cough**

Agreed

[RendeR]

I can't really argue with Arles' analysis beyond stating that I am not a wolf of either faction and I hold no role for the office workers either, so I am expendible as far as primary roles go.

However, re-reading that same analysis would seem to point out that SnDvls makes more sense as a starting point than voting for me. he had the choice of voting for BS or Olie (the two fairly obvious picks as they were the real front runner) and isntead chose to vote lathum and bring a 3rd player into the front running group.

I voted for BS for 2 reasons:
#1 I needed a Day 1 vote and with no real info to go on I looked at who had the most votes.

#2 BS made the stupid mistake of drawing attention to himself right away with the licking thing, so a vote for him was as good of a Day 1 vote as for anyone else.

As for other things, I really dislike the fact that Cronin and Lathum are agreeing so thoroughly so early in this game. I trust both of them about as far as I can throw my college campus. Seeing that really tripped my alarms.

So for now, since I don't see any other really viable reasons to vote for anyone I will follow my own statements here and:

VOTE SNDVLS

[Lathum]

I must say I find Crnin;s behavior towards me baffiling as well. He usualy wants me dead.

[Arles]

I think RendeR's analysis is solid and I have voted him off before when he was just a villager/worker. If I wasn't voting for him, I would be voting for SNDVLS so I could see changing my vote that way if enough people follow suit.

I would go into this in more detail, but I need to work on the pro game ;)

[oliegirl]

A lot to absorb today, Arles post is awesome and I think there is some good information in there. I'm going to hold off on voting today until a little later...I'd like to see some more reaction to what Arles had to say...

[path12]

I like most of the analysis I've read today, and don't have a bunch more to add to it but to say that one thing we need to keep in mind is that those who push lynch candidates have a good chance of being wolves trying to get the other team. So while the analysis is good, it also doesn't clear the person giving it.

That said, I'm still puzzled and suspicious of Fink's throwaway vote late and his relative silence so far in the game. Strikes me of someone trying not to make a mistake.

VOTE FINKENST

[claphamsa]

I like most of the analysis I've read today, and don't have a bunch more to add to it but to say that one thing we need to keep in mind is that those who push lynch candidates have a good chance of being wolves trying to get the other team. So while the analysis is good, it also doesn't clear the person giving it.

That said, I'm still puzzled and suspicious of Fink's throwaway vote late and his relative silence so far in the game. Strikes me of someone trying not to make a mistake.

VOTE FINKENST

So you think wolves will push onto eachother... Ok I agree!

So why are you voting for finkfest? he just tossed out a random vote..... which was silly, but I dont see how that makes him bad.

I guess Im confused becasue you made a good point, then igorned it

[mauchow]

So you think wolves will push onto eachother... Ok I agree!

So why are you voting for finkfest? he just tossed out a random vote..... which was silly, but I dont see how that makes him bad.

I guess Im confused becasue you made a good point, then igorned it

I got my eye on you, clappy.

[Passacaglia]

We really don't have much info so far. Therefore, I'm inclined to agree that the "wolves" directed us to go after both bullet and Lathum. This means that either Lathum is a worker or he is a member of a rival wolf group. I'm leaning towards the former right now. What's interesting, though, is that barkeep was the first to vote for bullet - and we know he's a worker.

So, I'm inclined to think there is a wolf in the set of oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262). If Lathum is indeed a worker (again, a stretch now - but it's reasonable given what little info we have), laphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207) or Passacaglia (238) could also be a wolf. Even though this list of 9 includes me, I'm thinking it's the most reasonable starting point.

Right now, we need to start finding groups out. Here's how the vote started:

Clap - Lathum (90)
Bullet - Barkeep (95), Oile (110)
Lathum - Clap (97)
Olie - Alan (123), Schmidty (134)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)

We know that Bullet and Barkeep are OK - which would raise the interest level in Olie and Path. Still, the fact that Barkeep voted for Bullet leads me not to read too much there. At this point everything was spread out and there were many ways to go. Here's the next set of voting:

Clap - <strike>Lathum (90)(160)</strike>
Bullet 3 - Barkeep (95), Oile (110), Arles (163)
Lathum 2 - Clap (97), bsak (162)
Olie 3 - Alan (123), Schmidty (134), Lathum (160)
Barkeep - path (130)
Schmidty - Mauboy (135)
Pass - ntn (136)
ntn - Pass (147)
Jackal - jeheinz (148)
jeheinz - Bullet (152)

Now, this puts me in the crosshairs a bit as I voted for Bullet, I am not worried by Lathum's vote as changing from Clap (1 vote) to Olie (2-3 v) is a way to prevent him from being voted off. Again, if we assume Lathum is good, bsak's vote is also questionable (like mine).

Next set:
bulletsponge -- Barkeep49 (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), RendeR (199), Lathum (227)
Lathum -- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207)
oliegirl -- Alan T (123), Schmidty (134), <strike>Lathum (160)</strike>
Barkeep49 -- path12 (130)
Schmidty -- mauboy1 (135)
Passacaglia -- ntndeacon (136)
ntndeacon -- Passacaglia (147)
The Jackal -- jeheinz72 (148), Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (208)
jeheinz72 -- bulletsponge (152)

This is the best knowledge set, IMO. Prior to this point, we had Bullet and Olie at 3, with Lathum at 2. After this vote, it moved to Bullet at 4, Lathum at 3 and Ollie at 3. At that point, seeing Lathum switch to Bullet makes sense to save his bacon. But the votes that interest me ate RendeR and SnDvls. IMO, it made sense to go for either Ollie or Bullet at that point and they chose Bullet and Lathum. We know Bullet is safe, which means that RendeR's vote made the difference in voting off Bullet over Ollie. SnDvls' vote could have put Lathum on the blocks had he not switched.

Next, we had two pile on votes by St. Cronin (bullet) and Pass (unvoted ntn for bullet) that helped ensure Bullet goes (with bullet switching to Lathum to save his bacon). Mr Wed also piled on later

So, if you avoid Lathum's status, you end up with these people being potential wolves:
RendeR
Cronin
Pass
Mr Wed
Arles

If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf), then SnDvls is also questionable.

Now, I have the advantage of knowing I am not a wolf. So, I also am going to continue the line of thinking that Lathum is a worker. If those two assumptions are true, and you factor in timing, who they voted for and who was "saved", I'm inclined to go with these three as the most likely wolves:

RendeR
SnDvls
Olie

I chose RendeR as he started the run on Bullet (who we know is safe). I chose SnDvls as he setup the run to be Bullet and Lathum. And I chose Olie as it seemed the "second group of voters" (who I think involve some wolves) seemed to prefer saving her and going after Bullet and Lathum.

With all that in mind, I choose to:

Vote RendeR

I'm still digesting all this, but I'd like the record to indicate that I voted for Lathum, not bullet.

[Passacaglia]

Also, what does it mean to say "If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf)" -- what could he be, other than those two things?

[mauchow]

I wish bullet would have fought a little harder to not get voted out. He had a decent role. Ah, well.

[path12]

So you think wolves will push onto eachother... Ok I agree!

So why are you voting for finkfest? he just tossed out a random vote..... which was silly, but I dont see how that makes him bad.

Well, I don't have anything to go on other than day 1 votes so far. As I mentioned yesterday, he spent quite a while boning up on WW last game and asking very good questions, and then for this one he comes in late and pleads ignorance and puts in a throwaway vote. It strikes me as a first time wolf trying not to make a mistake.

[claphamsa]

I got my eye on you, clappy.

why?

[claphamsa]

Well, I don't have anything to go on other than day 1 votes so far. As I mentioned yesterday, he spent quite a while boning up on WW last game and asking very good questions, and then for this one he comes in late and pleads ignorance and puts in a throwaway vote. It strikes me as a first time wolf trying not to make a mistake.
hjhmm, well that is a good explanation.

[Arles]

Also, what does it mean to say "If you think Lathum is good (or a faction wolf)" -- what could he be, other than those two things?
Good point, but the point wasn't to find Lathum's identity, it was to focus on if you think Lathum was a wolf target. See, IMO, I think Lathum and Bullet were "wolf targets" while Olie was not. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that Olie is a wolf, but I think we can gather info based on who voted for Lathum and Bullet (esp Bullet).

Again, we don't have a ton of info to this point, but the fact that everyone had 3 choices early on (Olie, Lathum, Bullet) and the pile-on guys virtually ignored Olie gives a little window into the idea that wolves were trying to influence the vote on Bullet and Lathum - but away from Olie. It's just a theory, but it's the best one I have right now.

[Passacaglia]

Good point, but the point wasn't to find Lathum's identity, it was to focus on if you think Lathum was a wolf target. See, IMO, I think Lathum and Bullet were "wolf targets" while Olie was not. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that Olie is a wolf, but I think we can gather info based on who voted for Lathum and Bullet (esp Bullet).

Again, we don't have a ton of info to this point, but the fact that everyone had 3 choices early on (Olie, Lathum, Bullet) and the pile-on guys virtually ignored Olie gives a little window into the idea that wolves were trying to influence the vote on Bullet and Lathum - but away from Olie. It's just a theory, but it's the best one I have right now.

When you put it that way, it does look a little fishy for olie, but I don't think the wolves are going to bandwagon that much one day. I'm pretty sure olie should be safe from our suspicion, so I'm kind of looking at RendeR. What made you vote for him in particular?

[mauchow]

why?

Because of my lazy eye.

[Arles]

When you put it that way, it does look a little fishy for olie, but I don't think the wolves are going to bandwagon that much one day. I'm pretty sure olie should be safe from our suspicion, so I'm kind of looking at RendeR. What made you vote for him in particular?
Before RendeR and SnDvls voted, it was Bullet-3, Olie-3, Lathum-2. Then, within 8 posts of each other, Render voted for Bullet and SnDvls voted for Lathum. That made it Bullet-4, Olie-3, Lathum-3. Lathum, being a smart player, quickly moved from Olie to Bullet to give himself more breathing space. That made it Bullet-5, Lathum-3, Olie-2. So, it seems that those two votes (RendeR and SnDvls) pretty much dictated who went off (Bullet). Now, it could be just chance, but the selection of Bullet over Olie by RendeR turned the tide. And if you think there's a decent chance Olie is a wolf, that vote by RendeR looks even more questionable.

[Passacaglia]

Day 1 Vote

bulletsponge (7) -- Barkeep (95), oliegirl (110), Arles (163), Render (199), st.cronin (233), Mr. Wednesday (262), Lathum (227)
Lathum (5)-- claphamsa (97), bsak16 (162), SnDvls (207), Passacaglia (238), bulletsponge (240)
oliegirl (2)-- Alan T (123), Schmidty (134)
The Jackal (2)-- jeheinz (148), Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (208)
Barkeep49 (1)-- path12 (130)
Schmidty (1)-- mauboy1 (135)
Passacaglia (1)-- ntndeacon (136)
Mr. Wednesday (1)-- finkenst (253)
jeheinz (1)-- the Jackal (256)


All right, here's what I got. Seem about right?

Arles, are you disputing this vote count? I don't understand how it fits with what you said.

[Passacaglia]

I think I'm seeing some of where you're coming from, plus there was probably an unvote on olie that doesn't show up. But how does SnDvls vote make it so that bullet went off? I don't think olie is a wolf, so by your thinking I'm less inclined to look at RendeR, but by my thinking, I feel like I should be more inclined to look at him. Maybe I'll think better when I have food in me -- stupid co-workers being too busy to get lunch.

[ntndeacon]

I am a little suspicious of the amount of day to theories put out there. However I think Iam going with the idea that wolves will be going after wolves on day two if not with thier main vote at least with throwing thier name up as suspicious. I am at the moment a little less trusting of Arles so I will go with that assumption and go with one of his probable wolves.

Vote SnDvls

[path12]

I am at the moment a little less trusting of Arles so I will go with that assumption and go with one of his probable wolves.


I'm confused by this. You have less trust of Arles so you vote for one of his wolf candidates?

[Dr. Sak]

Before RendeR and SnDvls voted, it was Bullet-3, Olie-3, Lathum-2. Then, within 8 posts of each other, Render voted for Bullet and SnDvls voted for Lathum. That made it Bullet-4, Olie-3, Lathum-3. Lathum, being a smart player, quickly moved from Olie to Bullet to give himself more breathing space. That made it Bullet-5, Lathum-3, Olie-2. So, it seems that those two votes (RendeR and SnDvls) pretty much dictated who went off (Bullet). Now, it could be just chance, but the selection of Bullet over Olie by RendeR turned the tide. And if you think there's a decent chance Olie is a wolf, that vote by RendeR looks even more questionable.

Wow Arlie, you have actually made some good points about SnDvls. & RendeR When Iooked at the votes I didn't look that far back, but now seeing that it makes SnDvls & RendeR really suspicious. So much that it might sway me from my day 1 vote of Lathum.

[Dr. Sak]

Okay I've read and re-read some points being made on here and I still keep coming back to the St.Cronin-Lathum similarities I made earlier. So I am going to stick with my vote from yesterday unless someone (besides Lathum) has a good argument on why I should change.

VOTE LATHUM

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think Arles might be reading too much into early votes, but the analysis of what happened with RendeR's vote is still very interesting.

VOTE RENDER

[Passacaglia]

Here's my vote count:

Farrah cronin
jeheinz72 Lathum Alan T
lathum claphamsa bask16
finknest jeheinz72 path12
RendeR Arles Mr. Wednesday
Schmidty mauboy1
SnDvls RendeR ntndeacon

[Passacaglia]

Well that didn't turn out very well. Votee on the left, voters on the right.

[oliegirl]

So we have 5 people with 2 votes each??? Wow.

[Passacaglia]

So we have 5 people with 2 votes each??? Wow.

Yeah, it definitely sucks, for those of us looking to make a vote in the next hour or so. You have any thoughts so far, olie? I don't think I've heard much from you today, and after last game, it might be a better idea if you vote right before me, instead of right after! :)

[oliegirl]

Yeah, it definitely sucks, for those of us looking to make a vote in the next hour or so. You have any thoughts so far, olie? I don't think I've heard much from you today, and after last game, it might be a better idea if you vote right before me, instead of right after! :)

LOL...I was planning on just staying as far away from you as possible for this game! ;)

I'm leaning toward RendeR right now but am not really convinced on anyone. How about you? Is there anyone that hasn't voted besides the 2 of us?

[Passacaglia]

LOL...I was planning on just staying as far away from you as possible for this game! ;)

I'm leaning toward RendeR right now but am not really convinced on anyone. How about you? Is there anyone that hasn't voted besides the 2 of us?

I count 12 voters, and I believe there should be 19 alive.

I've been looking at fink and RendeR for my vote, leaning toward RendeR. We sure spar a lot, for people who generally seem to be on the same side of things most of the time. Although, this time, if we both vote for RendeR, then I promise not to vote for you! :)

[oliegirl]

I count 12 voters, and I believe there should be 19 alive.

I've been looking at fink and RendeR for my vote, leaning toward RendeR. We sure spar a lot, for people who generally seem to be on the same side of things most of the time. Although, this time, if we both vote for RendeR, then I promise not to vote for you! :)

LOL, we do, don't we? Though you've been a wolf in a number of games I've played, so I'm always very leery to trust you...

I'm comfortable right now voting for RendeR, I'm around all evening so if we need to move votes at the last minute I could, though I don't like to move votes unless I absolutely have to.

VOTE RENDER

[hoopsguy]

Just read the Arles manifesto in Post #361. I think I'm going to have fun playing with him in one of these games.

[Barkeep49]

Just read the Arles manifesto in Post #361. I think I'm going to have fun playing with him in one of these games.
That would require to actually, ya know, play in a game...

Just sayin'...

[hoopsguy]

Touche'. I will now bow out of the thread of the game that I'm not playing to better allow the regularly scheduled mayhem to proceed.

[ntndeacon]

I'm confused by this. You have less trust of Arles so you vote for one of his wolf candidates?

Normally that would not make any sense what so ever, however in this game it does. If a wolf is trying to mark a path against the other tribe he doesn't have to vote for them he makes them or at least some of them in a list of "possible wolfies" since he has not voted for them he also can not be said to lead the charge against them. (and is I assume safe from moderator anger) So Since Arles looks more wolfy to me I am making the leap that his names he isnt voting for should lead to a wolf too.

[mauchow]

Fine, I'll be the difference for the time being.

unvote schmidty
vote render

[mauchow]

Ah, didn't realize there was a page nine(50 PPP) with a vote. Ah, well. I guess my vote stands momentarily.

[Passacaglia]

Well, I'll put in my vote where I thought I would. I was considering fink for a while, but I figured we'll learn more, and it's in everyone's best interests, if I vote for RendeR instead.

VOTE RendeR

[Passacaglia]

Thanks for the simultaneous vote of confidence, mauboy. :p

[Lathum]

A few thoughts...


This run on Render is worreying me, not because I think he is innocent but because we learn nothing from a route.

Thats 2 days in a row bsak and Clap have voted for me while leaving some time in between their votes. It almost seems like they could be wolves trying to make it look like they know something about me and trying to get the villagers to take care of buisness for them.

Arles IMO seems pretty trustworthy. As a new player I think he would be much more inclined to lay low as opposed to publishing as very well thought out theory.

Render usualy defends himself with much more passion, piss and vinager. Not sure what to make of his laid back aproach thus far.

[Arles]

A few thoughts...


This run on Render is worreying me, not because I think he is innocent but because we learn nothing from a route.
This is what worries me too. Even if he is a wolf as I expect, does that tell us anything? It may put more of a focus on SnDvls as he seemed to vote right after RendeR - but even that's a tough tie-in. IMO, the two most "useful" votes would be you and Olie. If you are good, we know this line is valid. If Olie is a wolf, then this line would also be valid. However, I *think* you are good so I am not willing to lose another likely villager just to be proven right. Heck, they could vote me off and when I'm not a wolf they would know I'm right. But I'd rather not have it come to that. ;)

Thats 2 days in a row bsak and Clap have voted for me while leaving some time in between their votes. It almost seems like they could be wolves trying to make it look like they know something about me and trying to get the villagers to take care of buisness for them.
bsak strikes me as a possible wolf, Clap less likely. But, there's not much data here to go off.

Arles IMO seems pretty trustworthy. As a new player I think he would be much more inclined to lay low as opposed to publishing as very well thought out theory.
IMO, if someone comes out with a bunch of theories/votes, it's going to make them look like a wolf. So, to help combat that assumption, I tried to be more thorough with my reasoning so that people see I am not trying to randomly target villagers and instead am legitimately looking for wolves.

Render usualy defends himself with much more passion, piss and vinager. Not sure what to make of his laid back aproach thus far.
I helped vote him off last game and he was good. So, maybe this time he will be a wolf and average out. Either way, I don't think I'm making his Werewolf Game club Christmas card list anytime soon.

[The Jackal]

- The person on Lathum's list (which I agree with minus of course, my inclusion since that is incorrect) is finkenst. He came on, late in the day and basically threw his vote away on a completely new person. He also didn't post hardly at all, I think he posted more in last games' thread than he has here.

Vote Finkenst

As far as I can see, Fink still hasn't said anything to defend this. It either means he hasn't checked, or he was hoping he wouldn't have to defend himself and a run would go on someone else - i.e., render. Laying low is a very popular and effective wolf strategy. That way you get 3-5 regular office workers who are blaming each other back and forth and votes tend to land on one of them.

I also agree with the concerns about the run on Render, and I don't feel that heinze has done anything warranting a real vote (but he has fooled many in other games, so I'll always keep my eye on you).

For now - Vote Finkenst

[The Jackal]

Another thought though.. if Render usually defends himself more vigorously, then my reasoning for voting fink pretty much applies to him too. I'd like to hear from both of them, really.

[mauchow]

I'll be around most of the night to change my vote if I see fit.

[The Jackal]

Oh and just a suggestion CM, in the players post on the first page, it really looks like BK was a wolf.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Personally I'm a little concerned about Arlie having another theory. The last game he did, and we all followed him I ended up with my throat slashed.

[jeheinz72]

Well, I leave again soon for the day. Not sure I love the RendeR plan. I'm sticking with fink, something is just strange with his play thus far when compared to his abundance of interest during the previous game.

Plus, he hasn't posted hardly at all and if I'm going to err, I'd rather err and lynch someone who really isn't helping the group anyhow.

[st.cronin]

I must say I find Crnin;s behavior towards me baffiling as well. He usualy wants me dead.

No, I would say my philosophy is: When in doubt, lynch Lathum. Day 1 that got trumped by "lynch the guy who says he's a wolf." Day 2 I am thinking that the best play is assuming you're good.

[st.cronin]

I'm totally ok with a unanimous vote on a wolf. Who cares if we learn anything.

[path12]

This run on Render is worreying me, not because I think he is innocent but because we learn nothing from a route.

Catching up. I totally agree with this. Runs in this game could easily be teams going after each other. I think consecutive votes like that should get a lot of scrutiny.

[Lathum]

I'm totally ok with a unanimous vote on a wolf. Who cares if we learn anything.

ordinaraly I would be happy just nailing a wolf but in this game there are going to be more then the average number of wolves ( probably) and voting paterens are gonna be more important.

[st.cronin]

Here's my vote count:

RendeR - 5 - Arles (361), Mr. Wednesday (396), oliegirl (403), mauboy1 (408), passacaglia (410)
finknest - 3 - jeheinz72 (360), path12 (377), The Jackal (414)
jeheinz72 - 2 - Lathum (348), Alan T (349)
lathum - 2 - claphamsa (356), bask16 (395)
SnDvls - 2 RendeR (373), ntndeacon (392)
Farrah Whitworth-Rahn - 1 - st.cronin (346)

[Passacaglia]

I'll be around most of the night to change my vote if I see fit.

What would make you see fit?

[Lathum]

Unvote JEHeinze
Vote Finkest

[mauchow]

What would make you see fit?

Some actual arguments. I want to here what these guys have to say. Few more hours left for them to come online and actually say something. It could be that they're just guilty and have no way around it? Dunno.

[oliegirl]

Some actual arguments. I want to here what these guys have to say. Few more hours left for them to come online and actually say something. It could be that they're just guilty and have no way around it? Dunno.

I've been surprised at the lack of defense we've seen this game...usually people on the chopping block are begging and pleading to not get voted out, going on and on about how they are innocent villagers, etc...yet we haven't seen that. Even BS didn't do that yesterday, and he was the Observer, which kind of threw me. I looked back through his posts looking for something that might be a clue...but couldn't find anything.

[st.cronin]

what would happen if all of the department were eliminated before any wolves got voted off? Does anybody know?

[Passacaglia]

Unvote JEHeinze
Vote Finkest

why?

[Lathum]

why?

I wanna make it close

[Alan T]

what would happen if all of the department were eliminated before any wolves got voted off? Does anybody know?


I think nothing.. I think that the wolf teams would have to eliminate the other team still to win, not sure what it would be like though for the time left in the game, would be crazy to watch I am sure.. I highly doubt that is going to happen.. we figure what? 6 or 7 wolves in the game (including the fish)? meaning they would have to eliminate 14 of us to get to that point .. I just don't see that happening.. Once the villagers got too low in numbers, I would imagine the wolves would focus on each other more.


On a different note, anyone else lagging horribly to FOFC? My wife accidentally knocked my laptop off of the table, and suddenly it is super slow to load anything here. I was afraid that it was my laptop but other sites seem fine.. Or is it just me?

[Alan T]

I should be here on and off the rest of the night, in case I want to move my vote.. right now I don't really see a huge reason to though, I watched a huge run on Render followed by a huge run on Fink.. right now, it almost seems like both are wolves, and we're watching the opposite wolf teams try to position themselves to not lose their guy...

Either that or everyone just likes making huge runs. Hopefully the lynch will help tell us a few things and clue us in on where to look at for voting patterns.

[Passacaglia]

I wanna make it close

I can understand that. It's why I voted for you yesterday! :p

[Alan T]

I'm thinking right now, if I was to move my vote, it would be to Lathum, he just is coming across really weird to me right now.. maybe its just nothing.. but moving my vote to Lathum would make it 5-4-3 so pretty pointless thus I won't bother.

[st.cronin]

I think nothing.. I think that the wolf teams would have to eliminate the other team still to win, not sure what it would be like though for the time left in the game, would be crazy to watch I am sure.. I highly doubt that is going to happen.. we figure what? 6 or 7 wolves in the game (including the fish)? meaning they would have to eliminate 14 of us to get to that point .. I just don't see that happening.. Once the villagers got too low in numbers, I would imagine the wolves would focus on each other more.


On a different note, anyone else lagging horribly to FOFC? My wife accidentally knocked my laptop off of the table, and suddenly it is super slow to load anything here. I was afraid that it was my laptop but other sites seem fine.. Or is it just me?

That makes sense, I just am questioning our assumptions here. I'm having a hard time making sense of what I think the optimal wolf strategy would be.

My FOFC is working fine.

[Lathum]

I'm thinking right now, if I was to move my vote, it would be to Lathum, he just is coming across really weird to me right now.. maybe its just nothing.. but moving my vote to Lathum would make it 5-4-3 so pretty pointless thus I won't bother.

what exactly am I doinfg that is weird?

[Alan T]

That makes sense, I just am questioning our assumptions here. I'm having a hard time making sense of what I think the optimal wolf strategy would be.

My FOFC is working fine.


That is something that I have been trying to work out as well since day 1 when I discussed it some. The more I think about it, the more I think that a wolf is going to try to leave hints on who might be a wolf if they are going down anyways.. that way for them its a 1 - 1 swap off if nothing else. So reverse that and the wolves will be trying to avoid leading a trail back to them.. once we get a wolf, if they pushed hard for that wolf, the bullseye is right on their back. So it kind of is a dance of sorts... I think if things end up close though, and they can knock out one of the opposing wolves, they will do so.. which is why I am interested in watching how this lynch turns out.. If we end up getting a wolf, it will be interesting to see who helped make it possible.

[mauchow]

What if a wolf is going down and decides to out all the other wolves that isn't in his group? Then we get a pissing battle going back and forth.

[Alan T]

what exactly am I doinfg that is weird?

I actually was thinking you abandoned your earlier line of thinking in a way that just jumped out at me that you were trying to save Render.. but I went back and looked between my posts and Fink was on your previous list of people you are targeting so perhaps I was a bit hasty there.. I still am uneasy about you from yesterday's close vote and you narrowly escaping .. perhaps that is just bad taste from too many times where you fooled us pretty badly though. So I take it back a bit what I was thinking earlier...

However if Render ends up being a wolf, I think I will look strongly in your direction after playing a key part in both day 1 and day 2 the way you have.

[Alan T]

What if a wolf is going down and decides to out all the other wolves that isn't in his group? Then we get a pissing battle going back and forth.



The way that I read this:

Neither wolf faction is allowed to reveal the names of any other wolf, whether in their own group or in the enemy wolf group. I will be the judge of what is considered revealing the names of other wolves, so if you have a question about a potential post you are considering, please PM me or email me at [email protected] (when I am at work).


makes me think that something like that is pretty frowned upon.. I am guessing that Chief won't be happy with anyone doing that. I think we'll have to rely on who a wolf voted for and who voted for them (as well as who pushed for them) to try to determine where the sides fall.

[mauchow]

Oh, yes. That's clear enough! I guess we won't be seeing that happen. lol

[st.cronin]

I don't think I 100% agree with that. If I'm a wolf, and I'm going down, and I do something that points to a wolf on the other team ... then that team, the next day, does the same thing... it could unravel very quickly for the wolves. I think the wolves almost have to have an unofficial detente in these early days, until they have voted off enough villagers.

[RendeR]

what exactly am I doinfg that is weird?



Oh come on now, your name IS Lathum.....sheesh.





and as for defending myself with more piss and vinegar, its never helped save my ass in the past so why bother getting al wound up?

I am not a wolf, I am not a roled cubicle denizen, so firing me doesn't hurt us, but in the long run, it is a mistake. Please move your votes to a more promising candidate. I implore you. I need my job. Really. I mean it. honest.

[Lathum]

What if a wolf is going down and decides to out all the other wolves that isn't in his group? Then we get a pissing battle going back and forth.

It's in the rules they aren't allowed to

[claphamsa]

What if a wolf is going down and decides to out all the other wolves that isn't in his group? Then we get a pissing battle going back and forth.

when you are proved to be a wolf I say you do it. make it easier for me :)

[claphamsa]

so no one coments on cronins statment? he doesnt want us to figgure out hes a wolf??????????????????????????????

[RendeR]

so no one coments on cronins statment? he doesnt want us to figgure out hes a wolf??????????????????????????????


As much as I appreciate the fact that Cronin is a wolf, even when he's not, his post doesn't really do much to prove anything, its a well worded statement offering up a scenario for us to discuss.

On the other hand I won't shed a tear if we decide to fire him instead of me.



Honest.



Can I have my stapler?

[st.cronin]

so no one coments on cronins statment? he doesnt want us to figgure out hes a wolf??????????????????????????????

Nothing to stop you from commenting on it.

[RendeR]

Nothing to stop you from commenting on it.


*pats down a stray bit of fur on Cronin's ears*

Isn't that what he just did?

[Passacaglia]

so no one coments on cronins statment? he doesnt want us to figgure out hes a wolf??????????????????????????????

I'm not following.

[claphamsa]

well the simple logic is even if he isnt bad.... he should want info on who might be wolves... and not just one solo lynch!

[claphamsa]

Its about lynching lots of wolves not just one!

[The Jackal]

I think cronin was indicating a strategy the wolves might be using, trying to tell us that wolves may not necessarily be voting for each other right now, or trying to call each other out.

I guess clap thinks that kind of wolf thinking could only come from a wolf?

[claphamsa]

not only but most likely...... and in this game fueld by paranoia its not something one shoudl say!


so im betting jackall is with cronin in the same pack?

[Chief Rum]

I am home, and reading along. If anyone has any questions, feel free to come forward.

[Schmidty]

Ok, I'm here now and going through things while I eat breakfast/dinner.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

I wanna make it close

Why? What does that do?

[The Jackal]

not only but most likely...... and in this game fueld by paranoia its not something one shoudl say!


so im betting jackall is with cronin in the same pack?

I wish I was a wolf, I don't think I've been a bad guy in any game I've ever been in, but sorry to disappoint you, I'm just a department worker. I got to be the fool and the psychic in those last two games I was in and look where that got me.

I don't know anything about cronin, I was just trying to explain to pas what you might be thinking, but I think I even misintrepreted your post. But uh, thanks for jumping on me so fast, that certainly adds you to the watch list.

[SnDvls]

going through posts is this a correct vote tally

Faarah - St C (346)
Jeheinz - <strike>Lathum (348)</strike>(426), AlanT (349)
Lathum - Clap (356), Bsak (395)
Fink - jeheinz (360), path (377), jackal (414), Lathum (426)
RendeR - arles (361), Mr W (396), Oliegirl (403), mauboy (408), pass (410)
Schmidty - <strike>mauboy (371)</strike>(408)
sndvls - RendeR (373), ntn (392)

not voted - Sndvls, Faarah, Fink, Schmidty

[Chief Rum]

Oh and just a suggestion CM, in the players post on the first page, it really looks like BK was a wolf.

What, "WOLF-FIRED" made it seem like he was a wolf? lol...yeah, shoulda read that one closer after I typed it. ;)

I clarified it.

[Passacaglia]

well the simple logic is even if he isnt bad.... he should want info on who might be wolves... and not just one solo lynch!

I'm totally not understanding you. What did he say, and what do you see wrong with that?

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Ok seriously people. How hard is it to spell my name right?

:p

[claphamsa]

he said all he cared about was getting a lynch, and he was not interested in getting info.....

[claphamsa]

Ok seriously people. How hard is it to spell my name right?

:p
very?

Ill just stick to farah

[The Jackal]

he said all he cared about was getting a lynch, and he was not interested in getting info.....

can you reference the post #? I'm feeling lazy.

[Lathum]

Why? What does that do?

Because it makes it much eaiser later in the game to see patterns, if someone was saving someone else, etc...

[Lathum]

he said all he cared about was getting a lynch, and he was not interested in getting info.....

thats actualy not what he said

[SnDvls]

Ok seriously people. How hard is it to spell my name right?

:p

sorry :(

I wrote it down right, but typed it wrong...muct be aaaaaaaaaa stuck key ;)

[SnDvls]

dola -

at least I didn't spell it fair-ahh right ?

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Because it makes it much eaiser later in the game to see patterns, if someone was saving someone else, etc...

Well that makes sense. Sorry, that was a rather newbie question.

[Lathum]

I'm totally ok with a unanimous vote on a wolf. Who cares if we learn anything.

this is what cronin said.

I guess I just interpreted it differently

[mauchow]

I'm tempted to switch over to Finkster... dunno yet.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

dola -

at least I didn't spell it fair-ahh right ?

I'm just giving you crap.

Though...if my name really was spelled Faarah. I'm sure I'd be on the terror watch list. :p

[claphamsa]

421

can you reference the post #? I'm feeling lazy.

[claphamsa]

well at least you gave an oppinion on it!~

this is what cronin said.

I guess I just interpreted it differently

[The Jackal]

That's kind of confusing. I may be missing something.. but for a unanimous vote on a wolf we'd kind of need to know for sure that someone was a wolf. We aren't anywhere close to a unanimous vote, nor should we be, especially with the Observer gone.

[mauchow]

421

I missed that. That is semi-interesting.

[Lathum]

I read it more he would rather get a sure lynch of a wolf then gain information

[The Jackal]

I read it more he would rather get a sure lynch of a wolf then gain information

How the hell do we get a sure lynch on a wolf without any information, though?

[st.cronin]

That post was a response to people wavering on voting for the player in the lead, since it would make the vote not close - my point is, a close vote that gets a villager lynched is much worse than a runaway vote that gets a wolf lynched.

Its not rocket science.

[mauchow]

i get it.

[Passacaglia]

I'm tempted to switch over to Finkster... dunno yet.

Is there some kind of argument that's tempted you? I don't even think finkster has shown up since you said that's what would cause you to switch.

[The Jackal]

That post was a response to people wavering on voting for the player in the lead, since it would make the vote not close - my point is, a close vote that gets a villager lynched is much worse than a runaway vote that gets a wolf lynched.

Its not rocket science.

Hm. So you'd rather we stick on one person with the hope that they are the wolf instead of trying to see how voting patterns are working with multiple votes on multiple people?

It's all well and good to hope we get a wolf lynched, but it's certainly not a guarantee. The benefit of having a close vote is that you force multiple people to defend themselves, and that sometimes can lead to role reveals. When it's just one person with a ton of votes on them, there's not much likelihood they are going to get the vote changed. So maybe there's a better chance of getting a wolf with 4 votes on two people than eight votes on one, eh?

[Alan T]

Alot of people in the thread without much going on.. We're missing several votes aren't we? Everyone is waiting for something it feels like or is it just overwhelming indifference?

[st.cronin]

There's this idea that some players have that a vote should be "close." I'm not exactly against the idea, I just think sometimes its overrated.

[Chief Rum]

Day 2 Count (as of post #487)

Render (5)-- Arles (361), Mr. Wednesday (396), oliegirl (403), mauboy1 (408), Passacaglia (410)
finkenst (4)-- jeheinz72 (360), path12 (377), The Jackal (414), Lathum (426)
Lathum (2)-- claphamsa (356), bsak16 (395)
SnDvls (2)-- Render (373), ntndeacon (392)
Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (1)-- st.cronin (346)
jeheinz72 (1)-- Alan T (349)

Not Voted: Farrah Whitworth-Rahn, finkenst, Schmidty, SnDvls


Here's what I got right now. Anyone's vote is wrong, please let me know.

[RendeR]

Its not rocket science.



Well thats good, because your not a rocket scientist.

[SnDvls]

okay I'm going to force some votes and see what kind of reaction we get, plus it's getting late, bathtime for the little one and all...and yes I know I'm making a tie too so don't give me any crap about it, but it forces the non-voters to vote to I hope and that should give us something to work with tomorrow.

vote Fink

[Passacaglia]

Hm. So you'd rather we stick on one person with the hope that they are the wolf instead of trying to see how voting patterns are working with multiple votes on multiple people?

It's all well and good to hope we get a wolf lynched, but it's certainly not a guarantee. The benefit of having a close vote is that you force multiple people to defend themselves, and that sometimes can lead to role reveals. When it's just one person with a ton of votes on them, there's not much likelihood they are going to get the vote changed. So maybe there's a better chance of getting a wolf with 4 votes on two people than eight votes on one, eh?

I think he's just saying it's better to vote for who you think is a wolf, then to vote just to make it close. I think people are reading too much into this (and going apeshit in the process :p ).

[RendeR]

UNVOTE SNDVLS

VOTE FINK

purely self preservation here. I have to force a tie. Lets see who moves next. Do they save me? Do they same Fink? Since I tied it, if they save Fink, methinks we find a wolf in the vote.

[RendeR]

okay I'm going to force some votes and see what kind of reaction we get, plus it's getting late, bathtime for the little one and all...and yes I know I'm making a tie too so don't give me any crap about it, but it forces the non-voters to vote to I hope and that should give us something to work with tomorrow.

vote Fink


nice....

[The Jackal]

I think he's just saying it's better to vote for who you think is a wolf, then to vote just to make it close. I think people are reading too much into this (and going apeshit in the process :p ).

Thank you, for some reason that's the first time I understood it clearly. I think both camps have good points, but which strategy to use usually depends on how the game is going. Since we don't know much at all right now, and someone is going to get lynched either way, putting the pressure on multiple people is okay with me right now.

I get what you mean now, cronin.

[Alan T]

There's this idea that some players have that a vote should be "close." I'm not exactly against the idea, I just think sometimes its overrated.


I like the idea of a vote being close because it causes people to commit themselves for someone.. There are people who haven't voted yet, or might move their vote.. are they willing to put themselves on the line to save Render and condemn Fink, or save Fink and condemn Render, or go somewhere else and risk people claiming they were throwing away their vote to hide. It puts a bigger spotlight on people's reasons for what they do. If the vote is 8-3 or something, no one is going to risk anything really and you don't really gain anything.

I already have my suspicions on a few people from how Lathum escaped the lynch yesterday, I'll be interested to see how they play a part of today's vote which is possible because of how close it is. We can then start drawing lines to connect certain people based on those actions.

[st.cronin]

Hm. So you'd rather we stick on one person with the hope that they are the wolf instead of trying to see how voting patterns are working with multiple votes on multiple people?



No. I am just encouraging people to vote for who they think is a wolf.

[RendeR]

Queue Fink voting for me to even it up again.....

[claphamsa]

I read it more he would rather get a sure lynch of a wolf then gain information
thats how i read it tooooooo but how about lycnh a wold AND get info??????????????????????????????????????????????

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Alot of people in the thread without much going on.. We're missing several votes aren't we? Everyone is waiting for something it feels like or is it just overwhelming indifference?

C) Confusion.

[Passacaglia]

I like the idea of a vote being close because it causes people to commit themselves for someone.. .

heh, you said that to someone with their vote on Farrah

[SnDvls]

nice....

bright minds think alike