Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[cheekimonk]

I am in fact a villager from Aiel.

I did not receive a Ter'Angreal from Chief Rum, though.

I recognize your honorable action. Thank you, fellow warrior and survivor. So the weight I bear is mine and mine alone. I await your counsel this day fellow villagers.

[cheekimonk]

It's reasonable to assume I'd be notified if someone stole from me, yes?

Not if I'm as good as I think I am (but, I'm a guy...are we ever as good as we think we are?). However, we Aiel are trained from birth in our skills. How would we survive in our harsh environment otherwise? I do not suspect you would be aware that I claimed The Fifth until you went to interact with the artifact (i.e., until you check your watch, you never know it's gone).

[Raven]

Cheeki did you get to choose who you "searched"? And if so, are you willing to share who you stole it from?

Tomorrow is make or break for us, so we may need to share all the info we have.

[path12]

Ter'Angreal

These items are of use only to those who can channel, but for those individuals possession of a Ter'Angreal can greatly increase their abilities. Access to such a large source of power can allow them to amplify their weaves, or attempt things which they have never been able to do before.

Ter'Angreals are attuned to either the male half or the female half of the Source, and are useless to channelers of the wrong gender.

I have to admit that I'm confused about the channeling but cheekimonk, if I'm reading this right it certainly looks like there are at least two Ter'Angreal's -- one for male and one for female which I guess would be Aes Sedai, right? So I guess you and Vaimes could have one?

Clearly I am not the person you want to give these to. I search for something different.

[Vaimes]

That's a good point.

Mine is a female figurine.

[cheekimonk]

Cheeki did you get to choose who you "searched"? And if so, are you willing to share who you stole it from?

Tomorrow is make or break for us, so we may need to share all the info we have.

I only got to choose from whom I stole, not what item I was targeting. I stole from Vaimes.

[cheekimonk]

That's a good point.

Mine is a female figurine.

Mine is female. I think it's clear that I yoinked your artifact while you, supposedly, took Chief's.

[cheekimonk]

Rethinking...Vaimes, I targeted you because I had suspicions you were aligned with the Dark. How did you come to target Chief on the very night he was chosen for nightkill and know that he would have an artifact (as a Warder, I think it's clear what artifact that is)?

[cheekimonk]

For everyone else, we Aiel do not know who has an artifact and can only choose one target. It's really luck if we snatch an artifact. Vaimes, in this past night's case, seems to have been very, very lucky. That artifact, really any artifact Chief might have had, would be gone upon his death. Did Vaimes know he was targeted for NK?

[cheekimonk]

I had suspicions of Vaimes. Given the really fortuitous nature of his steal from Chief - it has to be the Warder's Cloak - and that we Aiel can only target one person the entire game as a one-time ability (which amplifies Vaimes luck of snatching an item from Chief the night he is NK'd) I have no choice but to suspect even more that he is Dark. If he is, this could trigger the Dark attempting a counter-run on me (and likely a NK, even though I've burned my ability), but it's down to the nitty-gritty so I have to risk it...

vote Vaimes

[Vaimes]

I picked Chief Rum because of his sudden departure from the Grover Wagon. My original target was going to be Coffee Warlord.

Also, can we not base a lynch vote off of luck/convenience, because. Yeah.

[Vaimes]

Why on earth did it take you so long to admit you stole from me?

[Vaimes]

I picked Chief Rum because of his sudden departure from the Grover Wagon. My original target was going to be Coffee Warlord.

Also, can we not base a lynch vote off of luck/convenience, because. Yeah.

Or rather, I thought he did. Looking back, I don't think he actually was.

I guess his first vote was on Zinto? On the sites where I play mafia, usually the mod also keeps track of who isn't voting in the votals.

My bad.

But anyways. It was really obvious that someone off the wagon would get shot, to maximize the number of suspects on the bandwagon. If the Wolves shot someone on the wagon, that narrows things down slightly. I thought Chief Rum was voting for Grover and then suddenly switched to Zinto, even though Grover was clearly going to get lynched (unless everyone speedvoted someone else), so I thought he'd be worth investigating.

[Glengoyne]

I had suspicions of Vaimes. Given the really fortuitous nature of his steal from Chief - it has to be the Warder's Cloak - and that we Aiel can only target one person the entire game as a one-time ability (which amplifies Vaimes luck of snatching an item from Chief the night he is NK'd) I have no choice but to suspect even more that he is Dark. If he is, this could trigger the Dark attempting a counter-run on me (and likely a NK, even though I've burned my ability), but it's down to the nitty-gritty so I have to risk it...

vote Vaimes

This argument is persuasive. Well at least in my current state. I guess I'll see what it looks like in the morning.

[cheekimonk]

Why on earth did it take you so long to admit you stole from me?

I assumed you knew. Nothing in the mechanics or in the PM I received told me you didn't (although, in retrospect, it does make sense that the Aiel could pull that off without the target knowing). Never announce more information than you need to for strategy purposes. I wouldn't even announce I had the Ter'Angreal if my passing it tonight wasn't likely the only chance to get it right...if it helps us at all. If the target of my yoink wanted to come public, they would do so. Hell, I could even deny their claim. You did in saying that you still had a Ter'Angreal. Saying you had one made my speech, and soliciting the village's help, unnecessary so it occurred to me that you might not know. Then came the whole bit about "These items (plural)..." which would also make what I did unnecessary. Once you confirmed it was a female Ter'Angreal, I came back around to the conclusion that you didn't know, but I still had to make sure the village knows there is only 1 revealed and I need counsel on what to do with it.

[cheekimonk]

I picked Chief Rum because of his sudden departure from the Grover Wagon. My original target was going to be Coffee Warlord.

Also, can we not base a lynch vote off of luck/convenience, because. Yeah.

I may not stay on you. I am suspicious of Zinto, timmae, and/or Raven/Narc. I almost targeted Zinto with my yoink. BUT, if you had gotten NK'd last night and I made public that I had chosen to use my one-time ability on you before the deed was done, I would expect the entire village to suspect me. Then again, the village didn't know our ability was only choosing a specific person - not an item - and that it was a one-shot kind of deal. I did. And when considering the odds of two Aiel (hell, one of our faction had already burned his ability on Grover with no results) blindly picking a target and actually nabbing an item, your choice of Chief looked very, very convenient and something the village definitely needed to be able to consider in our discussions today.

Of course, you owning up to pilfering from Chief was a noob mistake given the circumstances, but that doesn't make it any less suspicious.

[cheekimonk]

RE: Vaimes. It's 99% certain the item he took from Chief is the Warder's Cloak. Everyone read up: "...this makes the warder very difficult to spot, and so difficult to attack." So difficult to attack, lynch, or both?

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote


Timmae [1] - Vaimes (732)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Vaimes [1] - Cheekimonk (760)

[Coffee Warlord]

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

So. If I remember correctly, it was Chief that was targeted last night, with Martin linked.

They couldn't have known that they'd get a twofer there, particularly since it now establishes a pretty interesting voting dispersal.

I hate to accuse an Aiel of serving the Shadow, but I think we have to strongly consider Vaimes today...unless we got very lucky / unlucky on Day 1 and Timmae is a wolf.

[Vaimes]

Uh. The mod just forgot to PM me is all.

I checked my watch and it is indeed gone.

[Grover]

:popcorn:

[cheekimonk]

So...remaining we have:
britrock88
cheekimonk
Coffee Warlord
Glengoyne
Narcizo
path12
Raven
timmae
Vaimes
Zinto

3 of the 5 Aes Sedai are dead. At least 1 of the remaining 2 is likely Black Ajah. The mechanics state that there is "...There is exactly 1 Forsaken in the game, and a number of Black Ajah and Darkfriends..." so could both remaining Aes Sedai be Black Ajah?

We know of 3 Aiel who are all alive and have all used their one-time ability to pilfer an item (1 unsuccessful - Coffee Warlord; other 2 are cheekimonk and Vaimes).

We know of 2 Tear who are both dead (Chief Rum, fontisian) with Chief Rum being the Warder and font being a Tinker.

We know of Illian (Grover) who was a male channeler and possible Dragon Reborn or false Dragon (I think the phrase "possibly the Dragon Reborn" in his obit and Grover himself saying he could be the Dragon Reborn is significant...male channelers grow insane and all false Dragons and the actual Dragon have been male channelers in the past).

We know that cheekimonk holds the female Ter'Angreal and Vaimes holds the Warder's Cloak. It's important to note that we don't actually know what the Warder's Cloak does because Vaimes would have yoinked it before Chief was NK'd.

[Vaimes]

I need to be shot twice to die.

That's it.

It's kinda useless to me because someone is likely going to steal it toNight and then keep quiet.

(Also...if I were scum...pretty sure I wouldn't have admitted to stealing something from the NK target...like. Come on. I'm not that new to mafia.)

[path12]

3 of the 5 Aes Sedai are dead. At least 1 of the remaining 2 is likely Black Ajah. The mechanics state that there is "...There is exactly 1 Forsaken in the game, and a number of Black Ajah and Darkfriends..." so could both remaining Aes Sedai be Black Ajah?

It would be just our luck this game if both remaining Aes Sedai were Black. I have to think 2 of five would be a bit much balance-wise.

Besides, if both of them were black you'd have had someone trying to claim it by now right?

[path12]

God, being a Bulletproof Lover must suck.

I need to be shot twice to die.

That's it.



I feel better about Vaimes than I did. Not sure where to vote but it won't be here.

[path12]

3 of the 5 Aes Sedai are dead. At least 1 of the remaining 2 is likely Black Ajah. The mechanics state that there is "...There is exactly 1 Forsaken in the game, and a number of Black Ajah and Darkfriends..." so could both remaining Aes Sedai be Black Ajah?

We know of 3 Aiel who are all alive and have all used their one-time ability to pilfer an item (1 unsuccessful - Coffee Warlord; other 2 are cheekimonk and Vaimes).

We know of 2 Tear who are both dead (Chief Rum, fontisian) with Chief Rum being the Warder and font being a Tinker.

We know of Illian (Grover) who was a male channeler and possible Dragon Reborn or false Dragon (I think the phrase "possibly the Dragon Reborn" in his obit and Grover himself saying he could be the Dragon Reborn is significant...male channelers grow insane and all false Dragons and the actual Dragon have been male channelers in the past).



Don't see any reason not to share my faction at this point. Like Grover I'm Illian but not a channeler, I have no special abilities except for being able to search one player per night for the Horn.

So far I've checked Britrock, Narcizo and Vaimes on N1, 2 and 3 with no success.

[path12]

Vaimes, I feel like you are coding something in your replies but I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

[Vaimes]

I don't code. It tends to go unnoticed or it gets completely misunderstood.

I try to be as open as possible as town.

[cheekimonk]

Thinking on the basis of my argument against Vaimes - that he was so incredibly "lucky" to have use his one-time ability on Chief - he and I had these targets from which to choose for our one-time ability last night:

omit Grover because he was toast
omit Coffee Warlord because he already copped to attempting a steal and getting nothing

britrock88
cheekimonk (for Vaimes)
Chief Rum
Glengoyne
MartinD
Narcizo
path12
Raven
timmae
Vaimes (for cheekimonk)
Zinto

Let's assume that no one has the Callandor and that there are 2 Ter'Angreal. That leaves 4 items (Ter'Angreal plus Horn - which could actually be lost, but I doubt it - and Warder's Cloak) among 10 targets for cheekimonk and 3 items among 10 targets for Vaimes (since he already had the female Ter'Angreal).

The odds of any of the 10 targets holding one of 4 items (for cheekimonk) was 40%. The odds of cheekimonk actually choosing a person with an item - with no other information - was [b]16%[b/b] (40% that anyone could hold an item and 40% that cheekimonk would pick one of them).

The odds of any of 10 targets holding one of 3 items (for Vaimes) was 30%. The odds of Vaimes actually choosing a person with an item - with no other information - was 9%.

Now, this means the odds of Vaimes choosing a person with an item who was also NK'd that night - with no information - were 0.9%. If he did know who was going to be NK'd and nothing else, his odds of nabbing an item go back up to 30% (because his choice of targets was reduced to 1 out of a possible 1, and that target had a 30% chance of having an item).

The odds of both cheekimonk and Vaimes choosing targets that had items remain at 16% for cheekimonk and 9% for Vaimes because they are independent outcomes.

In summary, the odds that what Vaimes did last night was random is 0.9% (that's not 9%...that's 0.9%). The odds that he did it with knowledge that Chief was getting NK'd are 30%. It is 33 times more likely that Vaimes knew Chief was getting NK'd

[cheekimonk]

I feel better about Vaimes than I did. Not sure where to vote but it won't be here.

He needs to be shot twice to die because he stole the Warder's Cloak from Chief. That's such an obvious point that to overlook it is suspicious in itself.

[Vaimes]

I won a game of poker once with a hand that was statistically unlikely to have been possible. The club leaders, who are much better at poker, were very angry with me for getting so lucky.

So I don't really care about fancy numbers. I got super lucky and that's all there is to it. Sorry.

[Vaimes]

And really, it's not even all that lucky because it's just going to get taken.

[cheekimonk]

Don't see any reason not to share my faction at this point. Like Grover I'm Illian but not a channeler, I have no special abilities except for being able to search one player per night for the Horn.

So far I've checked Britrock, Narcizo and Vaimes on N1, 2 and 3 with no success.

Jeebus. If I factor in that those 3 didn't have the horn the odds of Vaimes pulling off what he did are even more extreme!! (the possibility that any one person held an item goes down for both me and Vaimes)

[cheekimonk]

I won a game of poker once with a hand that was statistically unlikely to have been possible. The club leaders, who are much better at poker, were very angry with me for getting so lucky.

So I don't really care about fancy numbers. I got super lucky and that's all there is to it. Sorry.

How many hands of poker had you played in your life? Now how many games of this particular flavor of WW? I'm very angry that you got so super lucky. So angry, I'm voting that you serve the Dark.

[path12]

He needs to be shot twice to die because he stole the Warder's Cloak from Chief. That's such an obvious point that to overlook it is suspicious in itself.

I know that. My point was that he or she told us what they got in the first quote and then confirmed in the second one. That strikes me as a helpful thing and so I feel better about him or her.

[cheekimonk]

Vaimes, I feel like you are coding something in your replies but I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

path, you are not helping yourself. It seems that you are giving him small windows out of his predicament...small enough that you can flip on him if he can't take advantage.

[cheekimonk]

I know that. My point was that he or she told us what they got in the first quote and then confirmed in the second one. That strikes me as a helpful thing and so I feel better about him or her.

What does that change? It didn't even occur to me until some time had passed how suspicious it was that he use his one-time ability, that he could use on only one person, on someone about to get NK'd. He only admitted that he tried to steal from someone after my speech about having the Ter'Angreal and then only because he thought he still had the Ter'Angreal.

As far as I'm concerned, admitting that he stole from Chief was a terrible noob mistake. One where the evidence that implicates him is buried in the subtleties of the mechanics (mechanics that, in this case, only he, I, and Coffee Warlord knew because the fact that our ability is one-shot, one-target was only known to the Aiel).

[path12]

path, you are not helping yourself. It seems that you are giving him small windows out of his predicament...small enough that you can flip on him if he can't take advantage.

Look. I appreciate your analysis. I'm not convinced by your conclusion.

But don't come around and tell me that I'm not helping myself because I could not give the slightest shit about helping myself. That is pure bullshit right there.

[path12]

What does that change? It didn't even occur to me until some time had passed how suspicious it was that he use his one-time ability, that he could use on only one person, on someone about to get NK'd. He only admitted that he tried to steal from someone after my speech about having the Ter'Angreal and then only because he thought he still had the Ter'Angreal.


What it changes, for me, is that it is not information he needed to share but did unprompted.

If I were a wolf and killed a guy and got an item that would help protect me, my instinct would not be to tell everyone about it. Maybe he is cleverer than I, though I've never played a game with him before clearly he's not a novice.

And the fact that I have search abilities, and Grover said he did makes me think that at least the Illians are all searching, and clearly the Aiel have some sort of search ability and generally there is probably a lot of searching going on at night -- that is hinted but not spelled out in the ruleset but I think is an easy jump to make. So yeah, though any one search is unlikely to succeed, some are going to despite the odds.

[cheekimonk]

Look. I appreciate your analysis. I'm not convinced by your conclusion.

But don't come around and tell me that I'm not helping myself because I could not give the slightest shit about helping myself. That is pure bullshit right there.

Fine. Then explain how these two statements do anything to exonerate Vaimes as you claim:

God, being a Bulletproof Lover must suck.

We all knew Chief was a Warder at this point, and a lover by that fact.

I need to be shot twice to die.

So, he has the Warder's Cloak. We all know that because we all know he stole it from Chief.

[Coffee Warlord]

By the by. Since I see you on, Raven.

Why have you had a hardon for me for like...the entire game?

[path12]

We didn't know Chief had a cloak though we might have inferred. The bulletproof lover comment refers to that.

Then later he explains explicitly. I'm alright with that. You're not. Fine.

But now that I type that out I have a question -- if Chief was wearing a Warders cloak why did he die? It must be that searches/steals happen before night kills?

[path12]

Fine. Then explain how these two statements do anything to exonerate Vaimes as you claim:

Also, let me be very very clear. I am not exonerating anyone. What I said is that I feel better about Vaimes.

[Raven]

Because your reactions to the whole Grover situation, since Day 1, seem contrived and misleading.

[cheekimonk]

What it changes, for me, is that it is not information he needed to share but did unprompted.

If I were a wolf and killed a guy and got an item that would help protect me, my instinct would not be to tell everyone about it. Maybe he is cleverer than I, though I've never played a game with him before clearly he's not a novice.

And the fact that I have search abilities, and Grover said he did makes me think that at least the Illians are all searching, and clearly the Aiel have some sort of search ability and generally there is probably a lot of searching going on at night -- that is hinted but not spelled out in the ruleset but I think is an easy jump to make. So yeah, though any one search is unlikely to succeed, some are going to despite the odds.

I am Aiel. Vaimes has admitted to being Aiel. That means I know EXACTLY what ability he has: a one time per game, one target (not item) opportunity to steal something if that target actually has an item. We have no ability to know whether the target has an item or not ahead of time (unless someone told us). Point remains that our ability is very likely to fail. It's insanely unlikely that it would a) succeed AND b) succeed on someone about to be NK'd (which is the last chance to target them with the ability).

His admission of targeting Chief was a mistake. No reason to do it whether he's Light or Dark. Given what was going on, it's the kind of mistake that could be stumbled into by a noob. And one that can only mean he's Dark. There is virtually no other conclusion to draw from his action.

[Vaimes]

"There is no other conclusion to draw."

Gee, that sounds awfully similar to "we have no choice" when everyone was lynching Grover.

Hang on, I need a computer.

[cheekimonk]

We didn't know Chief had a cloak though we might have inferred. The bulletproof lover comment refers to that.

Then later he explains explicitly. I'm alright with that. You're not. Fine.

But now that I type that out I have a question -- if Chief was wearing a Warders cloak why did he die? It must be that searches/steals happen before night kills?

We did know Chief had the cloak because he was the Warder. Once Vaimes admitted he stole something from Chief, it made no sense to assume anything else (and he later confirmed that he did, in fact, steal the Cloak).

Your last point is the most important. The ONLY way Chief could have died so easily (in one night, since Vaimes has now confirmed that the Cloak means one has to be NK'd twice to die) is if someone stole the Cloak off him prior to the attempt to kill him. The only one who can do that is an Aiel. So it would take an Aiel who knew ahead of time that Chief was going to be targeted.

[path12]

Well to be fair, if steals happen before kills, it could be a steal and a kill by two different people. I am not going to surmise the likelihood of that.

Are you saying that only Aiel's can steal? I don't think that is true because if I searched the person who has the Horn I would get it, which is stealing and I am Illian.

[cheekimonk]

"There is no other conclusion to draw."

Gee, that sounds awfully similar to "we have no choice" when everyone was lynching Grover.

Hang on, I need a computer.

Uh-huh. Because someone intervened on Grover's behalf. That could have been someone saving his bacon (a fellow Dark) or him saving his own (which turned out to be the case). In Vaimes' situation, someone who had to be a specific faction (Aiel) took a specific, one-shot action on a target (not an item...Aiel can only choose the person...Chief in this case) that not only assured that anything he had would be taken before he died (meaning the someone had to know before night actions that Chief would be NK'd) but, conveniently, was the one thing that HAD to be removed from Chief for him to die. We know 3 Aiel: Coffee Warlord burned his steal, I stole from Vaimes, Vaimes stole from Chief. Is it possible that Vaimes was lucky in choosing to steal from Chief (meaning the Dark was lucky, too, because they couldn't have NK'd Chief otherwise)? Yes. It is precisely 0.9% possible...meaning it's 99.1% certain that Vaimes knew exactly what he was doing.

[cheekimonk]

Well to be fair, if steals happen before kills, it could be a steal and a kill by two different people. I am not going to surmise the likelihood of that.

Are you saying that only Aiel's can steal? I don't think that is true because if I searched the person who has the Horn I would get it, which is stealing and I am Illian.

First, why are you deflecting the fact that it was Vaimes who stole from Chief? We know that. And I've demonstrated to everyone the odds that Chief would both have an item AND be NK'd.

Second, it wasn't the Horn that was stolen. We Aiel get our ability to steal from our Code of Honor which allows us to Claim the Fifth (1/5th of the plunder from a target, but interpreted as a chance to pilfer any item a target might have). If there is any other person that the Dark would have known to instruct to steal from Chief prior to NK, please speak up.

Actually, don't. Because we know who stole from Chief and how insanely unlikely it was that Chief was also about to be NK'd.

[cheekimonk]

Well to be fair, if steals happen before kills, it could be a steal and a kill by two different people. I am not going to surmise the likelihood of that.


Back to this point, the likelihood of that is exactly what I calculated. The probability of Vaimes choosing to steal from Chief, who had an item and also was NK'd in the same night, assuming he had no prior knowledge that Chief had an item or was going to be NK'd is precisely 0.9%.

So, either something happened that was 0.9% likely to happen. OR Vaimes did have prior knowledge that Chief had an item, was going to be NK'd, or both.

[Grover]

:popcorn:

[Vaimes]

It's totally the 0.9%.

(A friend wanted to get lunch so my response will be delayed.)

[cheekimonk]

How about this:

1) Likelihood that Vaimes does what he did with no knowledge at all: 0.9%
2) Likelihood that Vaimes does what he did with knowledge that Chief was going to be NK'd, but NOT knowledge that Chief had any item...much less the Warder's Cloak (assuming 3 Darks...if it's 4 the probability is even worse): 37.5% (note: that's only the probability of him accidentally snagging an item)
3) Likelihood that Vaimes does what he did with knowledge that Chief was going to be NK'd and knowledge that Chief was the Warder: 100% (obviously...with prior knowledge of all successful outcomes the probability of having a successful outcome is 100%)

[Vaimes]

You arguing probability is very annoying because all I can really say to it is "you're wrong." Like there is literally no arguing against numbers being numbers.

It's a very cheap way to push a lynch, since you're arguing that the more likely outcome must be what happened, which is false.

[cheekimonk]

It's totally the 0.9%.

(A friend wanted to get lunch so my response will be delayed.)

Fair enough. Then we can base our vote on something 0.9% likely (you're Light and the Dark got very, very, very lucky), or 99.1 likely (you're Dark and had prior knowledge from fellow Darks that Chief, the Warder, was going to be NK'd). I've decided my vote.

[cheekimonk]

You arguing probability is very annoying because all I can really say to it is "you're wrong." Like there is literally no arguing against numbers being numbers.

It's a very cheap way to push a lynch, since you're arguing that the more likely outcome must be what happened, which is false.

"Luck is statistics taken personally." - Penn Jillette

Numbers can be annoying. I would, however, argue that this is as far from a "cheap" way to push a lynch as possible. I didn't have to sit down and crunch those numbers. But I did, so we have probabilities for you and whatever arguments can be presented today for other candidates.

[path12]

First, why are you deflecting the fact that it was Vaimes who stole from Chief? We know that. And I've demonstrated to everyone the odds that Chief would both have an item AND be NK'd.

Where have I deflected that? I've never claimed he didn't.

[EagleFan]

:popcorn:

[path12]

For this to work means that he needed to have two actions at night, or coordinated with another wolf in order to steal, then kill Chief.

Two actions a night seems unbalanced for bad guys who already have advantage by knowing who they are.

Also, this then means that there was some knowledge that Chief was a warder. I may have missed him disclosing that but can't imagine why he would do so. So the wolves have a seer too?

I'm skeptical because we can't afford another Grover. You very well could be right and it is hard to argue against those numbers. I'd love to see some other folks jump in here to see what they think.

[cheekimonk]

Where have I deflected that? I've never claimed he didn't.

I didn't say you claimed he didn't. I said you deflected from that fact:

Are you saying that only Aiel's can steal? I don't think that is true because if I searched the person who has the Horn I would get it, which is stealing and I am Illian.

Vaimes said he was Aiel and that he stole the Warder's Cloak from Chief. Changing the argument into "other people could have done" what Vaimes already admitted he did is deflecting. It's a standard debate tactic and is used in courtrooms around the world every day: cast doubt on something tangentially related to the facts to lure a long argument that will ultimately cause some to conclude "if there's doubt about that, then there's doubt about the facts" when, of course, there is not.

I gave you the odds of Vaimes, and only Vaimes, doing what he has admitted, and we know, he did. Not an Aiel. Not an Illian. Not any specific item. The probability that Vaimes, specifically, could do, specifically, what he did by luck (lucky for the Dark, of course) is 0.9%.

[path12]

I didn't say you claimed he didn't. I said you deflected from that fact:

Now I don't think of that as a deflection, I think of that as a data point. Because if you search, I search, Vaimes searches (steals, whatever) whether it is once per game or every night the point was that there is a whole lotta searchin'/stealin' possible and SOME of it has to connect. That's all.

[Vaimes]

How many hands of poker had you played in your life? Now how many games of this particular flavor of WW? I'm very angry that you got so super lucky. So angry, I'm voting that you serve the Dark.

The club meets once a week, and at that point I had been going for a couple months. I tended to either lose really early or make it to like third place before succumbing to defeat. The club leaders tried to educate me on how to play better, but their explanations bored me and I didn't really listen to them.

Well, of this flavor, never. I'm not at all familiar with it. But I am somewhat familiar with semi-open setups.

[cheekimonk]

For this to work means that he needed to have two actions at night, or coordinated with another wolf in order to steal, then kill Chief.

Two actions a night seems unbalanced for bad guys who already have advantage by knowing who they are.

Also, this then means that there was some knowledge that Chief was a warder. I may have missed him disclosing that but can't imagine why he would do so. So the wolves have a seer too?

First, are you debating whether wolves coordinate their actions (i.e., one steals from the known target - which would happen before the NK - and the wolves then NK Chief)?

Second, sure the bad guys have an advantage. But, assuming Vaimes is Dark, they also have an Aiel who must use his one-time ability in this game or lose it. At worst, they didn't know Chief was the Warder and Vaimes was only using his ability so anything Chief might have been carrying didn't go with him to the grave. Which brings me to...

Lastly, this does NOT mean that there was some knowledge that Chief was the Warder. The 0.9% was calculated based ONLY on Vaimes stealing from someone with an item (ANY item) who was also NK'd in the same night action. He could have known Chief was a warder, but the numbers are bad enough just assuming any item was nabbed.

[path12]

You and I can go around and around here. I'm not saying your theory is wrong, I'm only saying that from my experience lots of weird things can happen in a complicated ruleset and that a small chance is still a chance.

We'll see what happens. But again, I'd love to see what others think. It's pretty clear where we are. :)

[path12]

:popcorn:

:popcorn:

Whole lotta zombies eating popcorn around here.

[cheekimonk]

Now I don't think of that as a deflection, I think of that as a data point. Because if you search, I search, Vaimes searches (steals, whatever) whether it is once per game or every night the point was that there is a whole lotta searchin'/stealin' possible and SOME of it has to connect. That's all.

And all of those independent actions have their own probabilities (because of the fact that they are independent). And, because they are independent, I can calculate only the probability that Vaimes did precisely what he actually did: 0.9%. Do you want me to calculate the odds that you could have searched Chief for the Horn on the same night he was NK'd (again, assuming you had no outside knowledge)? I can, but why? That's not what happened. What did, in fact, happen had a 0.9% chance of happening. Leading the discussion into hypotheticals rather than the actual events is, ipso facto, deflecting. The only question is why the deflection is occurring given the party being accused. In a courtroom, it's because the deflector is being paid to deflect. Here? Not sure, but it doesn't make me feel better about you being Light.

[Vaimes]

Some insight on how I came to posses the whatever cloak:

I saw Grover's wagon growing until it basically everyone was voting him except Raven and myself. I saw Chief Rum suddenly vote Zirco, and since I thought he was voting for Grover before, I thought maybe he was jumping off the wagon to avoid being interrogated the next Day, as it's very apparent the majority of the scumteam was on the Grover bandwagon. So I checked him! Which actually really sucks, because it's basically my fault we lost two townies in one Night. And now I'm in this position where cheekimonk is basically arguing that I have to be lynched, which is really bad because it's likely that we either lose if we mislynch toDay or toMorrow, and. Yeah.

I am not new to mafia. I have played many games across four sites over the course of a little over a year. If I were going to steal from the NK target, I would keep that shit to myself. At that point, the only way I could possibly look guilty is if a townie stole from me and saw I had Chief Rum's cloak. Like, seriously.

If I'm going to be lynched, at least do it because I've been really scummy for xyz reasons, and not because a bunch of numbers told you to. You're going to be really embarrassed if you mislynch two townies based on how lucky they were with their roles.

[timmae]

Checking in.. Read up on the action from last night and this morning. Sifting through the back and forth. I lean good on cheeki and his tone seems honest. Not sure what that means for vaimes actions/claims. It does seem possible to have multiple items.

I am yellow ajah and am 100% village. I suspect one of you may have additional seer ability and may have figured that out N1. The other ajah (please confirm my thought that there is exactly 1 of each color ajah) is the blue ajah. I did a reread but did not see any major hints dropped early. Hopefully those that have knowledge of the books ( cheeks, martin and CW I think) can provide insight into what powers the blue ajah has. When we find the blue ajah we will know who our black ajah is. If we have one black ajah and only one of each color then blue is our evil. I protected myself N1, chief N2 and Coffee N3.

I can protect either cheeki or myself tonight. My guess is that the other will be NK'd.

Cheeki, you can pass the item to me to hold or hold onto it. I will protect whomever has the object. I think it is best to keep the wolves guessing as to who may be protected so don't state what you are doing.

I am looking for discussion on how to proceed here as the gameplay options may present other possibilities. I am in and out until lynch time but should be on for sure around lynch.

[Glengoyne]

I had suspicions of Vaimes. Given the really fortuitous nature of his steal from Chief - it has to be the Warder's Cloak - and that we Aiel can only target one person the entire game as a one-time ability (which amplifies Vaimes luck of snatching an item from Chief the night he is NK'd) I have no choice but to suspect even more that he is Dark. If he is, this could trigger the Dark attempting a counter-run on me (and likely a NK, even though I've burned my ability), but it's down to the nitty-gritty so I have to risk it...

vote Vaimes

I've been thinking about this and Vaimes' story this morning, and I'm really torn. Both Cheeki's and Vaimes' stories are credible, even more credible than Grover's maybe. After sniffing down this trail all night, I'm going to side with Cheeki to get on the board this morning.

vote Vaimes

[Vaimes]

Unvote
Vote: Coffee Warlord

[path12]

toDay or toMorrow, and. Yeah.

BTW cheekimonk, the capitalizing of letters in the middle of words is where I was wondering about a code.

[Vaimes]

I picked that up from fontisian to distinguish between game Days and IRL days.

[Vaimes]

Given that the Days here are basically the same as regular days, I guess it isn't necessary. Just a force of habit.

[Glengoyne]

Man when you take eight or ten minutes to finish a post, a lot can happen.

I was just about to post that the statues are very powerful weapons in the hands of channelers. They will make them very powerful. But I'm also starting to think that the light vs dark channeler mix is going to be pretty close to 50/50 at this point so anyone laying claim to being an Aes Sedai is likely being truthful, but will also be even money to be a wolf.

The disposition of the statue tonight is going to be big.

[Chief Rum]

:popcorn:

I wonder what happened!!

[cheekimonk]

the whatever cloak

Really? Part of your attempt to argue innocence is, "Whatever cloak. Some cloak that I stole. I know it gives me powers because it takes two bullets to kill me, but if it's the Warder's Cloak that's a complete surprise to me. I just thought it was pretty. It's not labeled 'Warder's Cloak' anywhere...just a tag that says 'HAND WASH ONLY'."

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Coffee Warlord [2] - Raven (737), Vaimes (821)
Vaimes [2] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820)

[Vaimes]

Really? Part of your attempt to argue innocence is, "Whatever cloak. Some cloak that I stole. I know it gives me powers because it takes two bullets to kill me, but if it's the Warder's Cloak that's a complete surprise to me. I just thought it was pretty. It's not labeled 'Warder's Cloak' anywhere...just a tag that says 'HAND WASH ONLY'."

Now you're just trying to force me into a scummy box hole when I'm clearly triangular.

I just couldn't be bothered to look up the actual name. Warden Cloak? Warden Cloak. There.

[Vaimes]

WARDER'S.

Ugh.

[cheekimonk]

Man when you take eight or ten minutes to finish a post, a lot can happen.

I was just about to post that the statues are very powerful weapons in the hands of channelers. They will make them very powerful. But I'm also starting to think that the light vs dark channeler mix is going to be pretty close to 50/50 at this point so anyone laying claim to being an Aes Sedai is likely being truthful, but will also be even money to be a wolf.

The disposition of the statue tonight is going to be big.

Yep. I know. The only channeler that has come forward thus far is timmae.

[cheekimonk]

It is an option for me to sit on it so as not to take the risk. I'm obviously not going to announce my decision here. I'll have to take everyone's counsel and make my own choice via PM tonight.

[path12]

Checking in.. Read up on the action from last night and this morning. Sifting through the back and forth. I lean good on cheeki and his tone seems honest. Not sure what that means for vaimes actions/claims. It does seem possible to have multiple items.

I am yellow ajah and am 100% village. I suspect one of you may have additional seer ability and may have figured that out N1. The other ajah (please confirm my thought that there is exactly 1 of each color ajah) is the blue ajah. I did a reread but did not see any major hints dropped early. Hopefully those that have knowledge of the books ( cheeks, martin and CW I think) can provide insight into what powers the blue ajah has. When we find the blue ajah we will know who our black ajah is. If we have one black ajah and only one of each color then blue is our evil. I protected myself N1, chief N2 and Coffee N3.

I can protect either cheeki or myself tonight. My guess is that the other will be NK'd.

Cheeki, you can pass the item to me to hold or hold onto it. I will protect whomever has the object. I think it is best to keep the wolves guessing as to who may be protected so don't state what you are doing.

I am looking for discussion on how to proceed here as the gameplay options may present other possibilities. I am in and out until lynch time but should be on for sure around lynch.

Something about this reveal smells to me. Not sure what yet.

VOTE TIMMAE

[timmae]

It is an option for me to sit on it so as not to take the risk. I'm obviously not going to announce my decision here. I'll have to take everyone's counsel and make my own choice via PM tonight.

Correct. If I receive the item my protect will be me. If I don't receive the item I'll protect you. Either way my guess is the item will survive and the other person will be NK'd. Then it is down to 6-2 or 5-3 if we get evil during lynch. 5-3 or 4-4 if we screw up the lynch. It occurs to me that this could be a bad play as you could be evil but not much else to go on at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, that's a lot of posts since lunch.

[Coffee Warlord]

How the hell do I have two votes? Stop being dumb, Vaimes.

[Coffee Warlord]

Something about this reveal smells to me. Not sure what yet.

VOTE TIMMAE

Pretty much zero chance of timmae being a wolf unless someone counter claims this.

Even from the rules description, Yellow Ajah == Bodyguard. No way in hell do they make the bodyguard a wolf.

[Coffee Warlord]

Right now, I'm feeling Zinto, path12, and Vaimes as wolfies.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm going to repost this, since it got zero discussion. I'm also adding extra greens for people who, barring a flat out counter-claim, should not be wolves. (And myself, because I'm just an awesome guy).

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Two people not voting that day sucks ass, I might add. But, since we have a whole one freakin' day to go by, I'm going by that day.

If we believe timmae, the top 4 vote getters are ALL villagers. If we assume a usual wolf spread on day one, some candidates become very clear - Vaimes, Zinto, Path.

I don't know what to make of brit & Narc. They've been awfully quiet, I have no read on either. That said, I cannot believe more than one, MAYBE two wolves were on EF at the end - it's usually better to spread the voting love.

[Vaimes]

How the hell do I have two votes? Stop being dumb, Vaimes.
Right now, I'm feeling Zinto, path12, and Vaimes as wolfies.

Nah, I think I'm good.

Why are you singling me out and not mentioning Raven's vote?

[path12]

Pretty much zero chance of timmae being a wolf unless someone counter claims this.

Even from the rules description, Yellow Ajah == Bodyguard. No way in hell do they make the bodyguard a wolf.

I'm waiting to see if there is a counter and will move if there isn't. But first he asks for help from the Blue Ajah and then later in the same paragraph says that the Blue must be evil and that just struck me weird.

[Coffee Warlord]

Nah, I think I'm good.

Why are you singling me out and not mentioning Raven's vote?

Because Raven has been batshit insane and has loved targeting me the whole game.

YOU, however, have every reason in the world to NOT vote me, considering there's far more suspicious people out there - unless you're evil.

[path12]

I'm going to repost this, since it got zero discussion. I'm also adding extra greens for people who, barring a flat out counter-claim, should not be wolves. (And myself, because I'm just an awesome guy).

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Two people not voting that day sucks ass, I might add. But, since we have a whole one freakin' day to go by, I'm going by that day.

If we believe timmae, the top 4 vote getters are ALL villagers. If we assume a usual wolf spread on day one, some candidates become very clear - Vaimes, Zinto, Path.

I don't know what to make of brit & Narc. They've been awfully quiet, I have no read on either. That said, I cannot believe more than one, MAYBE two wolves were on EF at the end - it's usually better to spread the voting love.

BTW, I've no problem with being suspect (everyone is) but if you're putting me on the list because of a Day 1 vote it is a stretch.

If it's because I'm devil's advocating wolf theories I'm cool with that. But it would be way easier for me to keep my mouth shut at this point in the game if I was bad (which, for the record, I am not).

[Raven]

Man when you take eight or ten minutes to finish a post, a lot can happen.



WTF? Yesterday he said something like "When you take 15 minutes to post, a lot can happen".

Very odd.

[Raven]

Because Raven has been batshit insane and has loved targeting me the whole game.

YOU, however, have every reason in the world to NOT vote me, considering there's far more suspicious people out there - unless you're evil.

Over dramatic much? I've mentioned you in the past, but today is the first day I've voted for you.

[Coffee Warlord]

BTW, I've no problem with being suspect (everyone is) but if you're putting me on the list because of a Day 1 vote it is a stretch.

If it's because I'm devil's advocating wolf theories I'm cool with that. But it would be way easier for me to keep my mouth shut at this point in the game if I was bad (which, for the record, I am not).

Sadly, that's the only day where our voting records mean anything right now. The last two days have been a complete waste for analyzing votes. It's the only thing I have to go off of.

[Raven]

Warder's Cloak

Much of a Warder's ability comes from his bond with his Aes Sedai, but of use also is his cloak. Woven with color-changing cloth, this makes the warder very difficult to spot, and so difficult to attack.

Sounds to me like the Cloak would make The Warder (Chief) not reveal his role if scanned. Need to address how this plays into the cheeki vs Vaimes situation.

[Vaimes]

Because Raven has been batshit insane and has loved targeting me the whole game.

YOU, however, have every reason in the world to NOT vote me, considering there's far more suspicious people out there - unless you're evil.

"Anyone who votes for me is evil."

Okay. What are my reasons for not voting you, and who is Way More Suspicious than you?

[Coffee Warlord]

Over dramatic much? I've mentioned you in the past, but today is the first day I've voted for you.

Dramatic? I have not yet begun to be dramatic! I'll show you dramatic!

...

I got nothing.

That said, I swear, every other post I see you make has been a comment about how you have a bad feeling about me. That's what I'm referring to.

[path12]

Sadly, that's the only day where our voting records mean anything right now. The last two days have been a complete waste for analyzing votes. It's the only thing I have to go off of.

Fair, but then you need to take the green off yourself.

[Vaimes]

What do you think Raven is? Batshit insane town or scum?

Do you think I'm dumb town or scum?

[Coffee Warlord]

"Anyone who votes for me is evil."

Okay. What are my reasons for not voting you, and who is Way More Suspicious than you?

...You're Aiel? You did read your secondary victory condition, right?

Do you seriously think, out of everyone remaining, I'm a better vote than several others, which I've already pointed out repeatedly?

[Coffee Warlord]

Fair, but then you need to take the green off yourself.

My post, my colors. :)

[Vaimes]

Hi guys, my name is Vaimes and I pay attention to things like win conditions!

Did you mention being Aiel and I completely missed it?

[Vaimes]

I miss simple "eliminate threats to the town" wincons.

[Coffee Warlord]

I never flat out said it, but I did say I attempted to steal from Grover on Night 2 and got nothing. I was hoping that would clue in my fellow Aiel as to what faction I was, without flat out saying it.

But, yes, so no one else can mistake things...

I AM AN AIEL. AIEL. I LIKE SPEARS AND LIVE IN THE DESERT. :D

[Vaimes]

Unvote

I'm sad at my inability to pick up on basic hints.

[Glengoyne]

Pretty much zero chance of timmae being a wolf unless someone counter claims this.

Even from the rules description, Yellow Ajah == Bodyguard. No way in hell do they make the bodyguard a wolf.

I hadn't considered this. I was thinking of moving my vote, because even money on an Aes Sedai feels like a better bet than Vaimes. BG seems to skew those odds a bit.

[MartinD]

:popcorn:

In support of my fellow popcorn-eating zombies...

[cheekimonk]

Sounds to me like the Cloak would make The Warder (Chief) not reveal his role if scanned. Need to address how this plays into the cheeki vs Vaimes situation.

As I said, the 0.9% is the probability that Vaimes targeted someone with an item (any item) AND that person got NK'd. We don't even need to factor in that Chief was the Warder to see how suspicious that action was. So what would be the logic? "The Dark is in control of this game, we are going to NK Chief tonight. Vaimes hasn't used his one-time ability to steal if an item is present and it looks like we aren't going to need it, so have him try on Chief before the kill."

Of course, that's assuming there really is NO way to detect that Chief was the Warder. Could be true, but it's a moot point in regards to Vaimes' action.

[Chief Rum]

:popcorn:

In support of my fellow popcorn-eating zombies...

Hello, my zombie lover.

[cheekimonk]

Adding to my last post...

...the whole trouble started, of course, when I made my speech about having the Ter'Angreal. Vaimes says he has one, too, and that he stole from Chief before he was NK'd but will not reveal what he got. The debate was, "Did I really steal from Vaimes because Vaimes said he got no PM?" Maybe he had 2 Ter'Angreal? Maybe I was lying? Then Vaimes said he did get the PM so I really did steal the Ter'Angreal from him. Great! Thanks.

Except, wait...Vaimes stole from Chief, the Warder, on the very same night he was NK'd. And we all know he was the Warder, it said so in his obit, so why is Vaimes saying what he got is a secret? Having gone through the trouble myself of choosing someone to steal from, I started thinking about how hard it would be to not only pick someone who had an item but someone who also got NK'd that very night. Turns out it's very, very hard.

[path12]

I started thinking about how hard it would be to not only pick someone who had an item but someone who also got NK'd that very night. Turns out it's very, very hard.

.09% hard if I remember correctly. :p

[path12]

BTW, cheeki is the closest thing I have for a good vibe right now.

[path12]

Also, no counter yet so for now:

UNVOTE TIMMAE

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [2] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm going out tonight, btw, so I will absolutely not be around for the deadline. I need to get a vote in before I leave work, which is in ~1 - 1.5 hours.

[Chief Rum]

I'm going out tonight, btw, so I will absolutely not be around for the deadline. I need to get a vote in before I leave work, which is in ~1 - 1.5 hours.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oEDmV3ACBZQ/Tskp9VtVoMI/AAAAAAAAABU/IFWgy9yKVdo/s1600/9061549_gal.jpg

[Coffee Warlord]

Actually, it's more like this tonight:

http://www.rpgbooster.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Dragon-Age-Chris-Hardwick-Kevin-Sussman-and-Sam-Witwer-on-TableTop-episode-19part2-YouTube.png

[Coffee Warlord]

And Jesus. Alright. Who to vote for.

[Coffee Warlord]

Fuck it.

Vote Zinto

He's on my list.

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [2] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Zinto [1] - Coffee Warlord (871)

[Raven]

Since we don't have a lot to work with....

Day 1 Vote

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

No Vote: Glengoyne, Raven


Day 2 Vote

Grover [8] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388), Glengoyne (408), Coffee Warlord (453), path12 (459)
cheekimonk [6] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), Zinto (396), Chief Rum (402), The Jackal (445), Grover (457)


Day 3 Vote

Grover [9] - Narcizo (538), Zinto (542), cheekimonk (550), Grover (562), timmae (568), path12 (571), Glengoyne (651), Coffee Warlord (656), MartinD (696)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (620)
Cheekimonk [1] - Raven (636)
Zinto [1] - Chief Rum (700)


Day 4 Vote (Current as of 5 PM EST)

Vaimes [2] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Zinto [1] - Coffee Warlord (871)

[timmae]

vote vaimes

The steal was very convenient to last nights NK.

[Raven]

Day 1 Vote

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

No Vote: Glengoyne, Raven


Day 2 Vote

Grover [8] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388), Glengoyne (408), Coffee Warlord (453), path12 (459)
cheekimonk [6] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), Zinto (396), Chief Rum (402), The Jackal (445), Grover (457)


Day 3 Vote

Grover [9] - Narcizo (538), Zinto (542), cheekimonk (550), Grover (562), timmae (568), path12 (571), Glengoyne (651), Coffee Warlord (656), MartinD (696)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (620)
Cheekimonk [1] - Raven (636)
Zinto [1] - Chief Rum (700)


Day 4 Vote (Current as of 5 PM EST)

Vaimes [2] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Zinto [1] - Coffee Warlord (871)

[Vaimes]

vote vaimes

The steal was very convenient to last nights NK.

Am I actually going to die for this reason alone? Serious question.

[Raven]

Here's what I see...

From Day 1 voting
Timmae and Vaimes likely not aligned (rather close vote for Vaimes to be voting for fellow wolf Timmae - if that was the case)

From Day 2 voting
If cheeki is wolf - brit, narcizo, and Zinto are all not wolves (vote was too close for any of them to risk cheeki)
if cheeki is village - brit, narcizio and zinto - 1-2 would most likely be wolves
(village vs village for lynch - means wolves would likely split votes)

Day 3
Landslide on Grover gives us little info.

Day 4
Cheeki and Vaimes are def not aligned
Glengoyne so far doen't seem to be aligned with vaimes
Zinto and CW likely not aligned.

[Vaimes]

If Raven is town, literally the entire scumteam was on Grover.

That means out of [Narcizo, Zinto, cheekimonk, timmae, path12, Glengoyne, Coffee Warlord], there's like four scum. Unless it's like a three person scumteam and one or two Third Party roles. Whatever. Four scum! That's a lot of mafia on one wagon. An entire group of scummy scum, ripe for the lynching.

I don't have the strongest reads in the world, but as fellow Aiel I'm going to assume Coffee Warlord and path12 are town. That leaves five: [Narcizo, Zinto, cheekimonk, timmae, Glengoyne].

Vote Zinto

I'm just going to sheep this.

cheekimonks push on me objectively makes sense, even though it's also the most opportunistic push to ever exist, so. That's super annoying.

Ideally, since there are some independent roles thrown into the mix, a mislynch toDay won't end the game.

[cheekimonk]

I'm leaning Vaimes, Zinto, and Narc.

path12 made me suspicious early today, but I think he's just leery of a pile on like we had w/ Grover.

I kinda lean wolf on timmae, but the other Aes Sedai has not spoken up. The last 2 could both be Black Ajah (including timmae) but that seems too unbalanced.

Way too UTR for my taste: Glengoyne

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [3] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)

[cheekimonk]

I don't have the strongest reads in the world, but as fellow Aiel I'm going to assume Coffee Warlord and path12 are town.

In what post did path12 come out as Aiel? I'm only aware of Coffee, me, and you being Aiel.

[Vaimes]

Did you miss that whole thing where he claimed to have the Ter'Angreal.

[Vaimes]

I may not have spelled that correctly.

[cheekimonk]

Did you miss that whole thing where he claimed to have the Ter'Angreal.

I'm the only one who claimed to have the Ter'Angreal and I do. The female one. That's what started this entire mess today. If you're serious, you're making yet another mistake or you and path are more aligned than I've considered.

[Vaimes]

Wow, for some reason I thought that was path???

I need a nap.

[Vaimes]

I guess just swap cheekimonk and path in my post and go with that.

[Vaimes]

((I stayed up until 5am writing an essay. Don't judge me.))

[cheekimonk]

In fact, Vaimes, in post #754 path12 says this:

[quote=path12]I have to admit that I'm confused about the channeling but cheekimonk, if I'm reading this right it certainly looks like there are at least two Ter'Angreal's -- one for male and one for female which I guess would be Aes Sedai, right? So I guess you and Vaimes could have one?

Clearly I am not the person you want to give these to. I search for something different.[/b]

Then we find out that I did, in fact, steal your Ter'Angreal.

[Vaimes]

You guys should really get avatars. The names just sort of blend together.

[Autumn]

You guys should really get avatars. The names just sort of blend together.

Hah, I feel the exact opposite on BGG, I wish there was a way to make their names much larger since all the avatars and text confuse me!

[path12]

I don't have the strongest reads in the world, but as fellow Aiel I'm going to assume Coffee Warlord and path12 are town.

I'm not Aiel, I'm Illian.

[path12]

Did you miss that whole thing where he claimed to have the Ter'Angreal.

I missed the thing where I claimed to have the Ter'Angreal. I was just quoting the rules that there were probably more than one.

I have no items.

[cheekimonk]

Wow, for some reason I thought that was path???

I need a nap.

Vaimes, you're an evil genius or a completely incompetent boob.

[path12]

But this was already cleared up I see.

[path12]

So nothing from either Britrock or Narcizo today? That drives me nuts.

[path12]

Or Zinto either?

[Raven]

Yeah this is annoying. It seems half the people aren't anywhere to be found on potentially the last day.

[cheekimonk]

I'll be honest, I'm tempted to flip to Zinto. But it's really hard to ignore the fact that if Vaimes hadn't stolen Chief's cloak, the Dark literally would not have been able to NK him last night. How would they know Chief was the Warder? The Forsaken is one of them and is supposed to be incredibly powerful.

[Glengoyne]

I'm certainly not trying to be UTR. I'm pretty comfortable with my vote where it is. Cheeki makes good sense. I'm a little concerned with timmae's declaration as I do see the aes sedai 50/50.

[path12]

I'll be honest, I'm tempted to flip to Zinto. But it's really hard to ignore the fact that if Vaimes hadn't stolen Chief's cloak, the Dark literally would not have been able to NK him last night. How would they know Chief was the Warder? The Forsaken is one of them and is supposed to be incredibly powerful.

Wait a minute. After us going back and forth for an hour and a half and you getting suspicious of me because I was arguing the other side of your 99.1% certainty you are thinking about flipping????

And here I was leaning back towards Vaimes' direction. Goddamn I hate this game sometimes. :banghead:

[cheekimonk]

Wait a minute. After us going back and forth for an hour and a half and you getting suspicious of me because I was arguing the other side of your 99.1% certainty you are thinking about flipping????

And here I was leaning back towards Vaimes' direction. Goddamn I hate this game sometimes. :banghead:

I haven't flipped...and I doubt I will. Vaimes action was just way, way too improbable to ignore.

[cheekimonk]

If you are the other Aes Sedai, along with timmae, and you're village you need to speak up now!

[path12]

Leaving work, heading for home. Be back before deadline to vote.

[Coffee Warlord]

If you are the other Aes Sedai, along with timmae, and you're village you need to speak up now!

No, no you don't. We don't need any more dead Aes (Ass) Sedai.

[cheekimonk]

If timmae is Black Ajah, then the village Aes Sedai has to counter his claim. I need options for this channeler artifact. Right now, it's give it to timmae or keep it.

[Glengoyne]

Who haven't we heard from. I'm sitting in the waiting room at urgent care so I can't Easilly research it.

There is too much riding on tonight, and too little input.

I dont think we've heard from Zinto or Narc. Any one else?

[cheekimonk]

I'll give it to timmae or keep it. That probably means one of the 2 of us is going to be the NK target.

[Zinto]

Sorry everyone it has been a hellish day. I have a commute home and then I will be on.

[britrock88]

Narc and I have previously stated our ability for today (Narc's totally unavailable, I'm traveling and checking in daily). Pings to those who have questioned us since then (CW and Path).

[britrock88]

Btw, Cheeki's math is wrong. He squares the probabilities for item-stealing unnecessarily, so he's understating the odds of successful night actions in order to implicate people.

[cheekimonk]

Ha! Ok...trust me, the math is right for the specific scenarios described. If you knew what I do for a living...

[britrock88]

At this point, I'm inclined to thing that cheeki is emboldened by having survived the lynch with Grover. Someone else pointed out how many evil might have piled on to Grover that day, and I'm inclined to think that they may have gone all-out to do so if cheeki has an important role... Such as the Forsaken.

I know much less about the theme than others of you, so feel free to disabuse me.

[Zinto]

More than the cloak thing for me is that yesterday Vaimes seemed to be pushing for trust because he wasn't voting for Grover. It is a smart move for a wolf to do at that point. Knowing that Grover was going to come up a villager and making sure that you were not a part of it.

[britrock88]

You multiply the probabilities of players holding items by the probabilities of selecting those players. Those are independent probabilities...

[britrock88]

Anyway, my strongest reads for good are Vaimes and Raven, who seem to be among the least popular surviving players.

[britrock88]

vote cheekimonk

[Zinto]

I also hate the exchange that Coffee and Vaimes are not going to vote for each other because they are Aiel and it is their secondary goal. That is great and all if we aren't close to end game but I don't think it makes sense at this point.

[cheekimonk]

Then take the math away. Vaimes picked the one player being targeted for NK and stole the item that would have prevented said target from being killed. I say it's 0.9% likely that was chance, but eleventy-billion times awfully suspicious. Objective or subjective...take your pick and vote.

[britrock88]

Come on. It's a 1 in 12 chance. Lucky coincidence. You're ginning the math to make a case on a good.

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [3] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Raven]

I agree cheeki's math is wrong, but it's been a long time since I took a stats course. He says his own prob of finding an item is 16% but I believe it's actually 40%.

Not exactly positive on vaimes prob of picking an item off the NK, but it's higher than .9%. He likely made the same mistake that he did in his previous math on himself. To his credit, it's still a very low number. But again I agree with Brit that they are independent.

[cheekimonk]

brit, I'm not getting into a geek fight with you, the players having items and choosing a player who has an item are not independent when the final outcome being calculated is the probability of one player choosing a player who actually has an item. Vote as you will.

[Zinto]

vote coffee

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [3] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [2] - Raven (737), Zinto (923)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Zinto]

I don't feel good about coffee at all. He has pretty much just repeated that the wolves spread their votes out on day one and that is where we should be voting. I hate his exchange about not voting for fellow Aiel because it doesn't help us out at this point

[Raven]

Cheek, write down the numbers 1-10. Circle 4 of them (they each have an item). Close your eyes and pick one. There's a 40% chance you pick correctly.
This of course assumes no one holds multiple items.

[Zinto]

I will probably have to move for self defense soon but I really feel life coffee is a baddie

[Zinto]

I think we are getting a little caught up in the numbers here hahaha

[cheekimonk]

It is, indeed, a 1-in-10 (you counted available players given the info incorrectly) to choose a specific player (i.e., Vaimes choosing Chief, period). However, the pool of players to choose from have a low probability that they would have one of the 4 items - 3 in Vaimes case because he already had an artifact. So, it's not the probability of Vaimes choosing Chief. It's the probability of Chief actually having an item AND being chosen by Vaimes. Then factor in the probability of Chief having an item, being chosen by Vaimes, AND being chosen for NK.

fin

[Raven]

Zinto, what's your feeling on vaimes/cheeki?

[cheekimonk]

Zinto? Whom I've already said is likely Dark? Can't wait to read his answer...

[cheekimonk]

Again, ignore the numbers if you want. It's [i]x[/] probable, but bagoogily

[timmae]

Question for anyone who knows the books... what roles does the blue ajah play and/or what powers do they have? I still suspect that the blue ajah is indeed our black ajah (there has to be one since it is mentioned in the ruleset, right?). I was hoping for a counter claim for this to emerge but I think the blue is on to what would happen and instead chooses to remain silent. I don't know where to go from here really.

[cheekimonk]

...sorry, TapaTalk.

...bagoogily times suspicious.

[Raven]

I was doing the math you did on yourself which you claimed was 16%, but it's not it's 40%. I wasn't doing the math on Vaimes. But if your math on yourself is wrong, then your math on Vaimes is likely also wrong.

[Zinto]

Zinto, what's your feeling on vaimes/cheeki?

I don't like how Vaimes was pretty UTR until he could start pushing trust from the results of the Grover lynch. He was doing so even before the results were known. Why wouldn't you push for trust if you knew the village was about to blow a lynch.

Cheeki on the other hand I don't have a great read for. I thought for sure Grover was a wolf thus almost assuring that he was good. Other than the item exchange that he is having now I don't remember much more of what he has done.

[Raven]

Just a side conversation while we're waiting on things to shape up here :)

[path12]

Narc and I have previously stated our ability for today (Narc's totally unavailable, I'm traveling and checking in daily). Pings to those who have questioned us since then (CW and Path).

Apologies for forgetting that one post in the thousand in the thread. I did remember you were traveling during the week but for some reason thought that was over. I don't remember Narc's at all but that is on me.

[cheekimonk]

The math on myself is not wrong either. It would be if the dispersal of items wasn't random from the players' perspective, but it was random. Your calculations oversimplify the circumstance.

[path12]

At this point, I'm inclined to thing that cheeki is emboldened by having survived the lynch with Grover. Someone else pointed out how many evil might have piled on to Grover that day, and I'm inclined to think that they may have gone all-out to do so if cheeki has an important role... Such as the Forsaken.

I know much less about the theme than others of you, so feel free to disabuse me.

I was questioning him on the percentages because I know I've seen weird shit happen when running games that wasn't expected because of low probability.

But the thing with him is the admission of having the Ter'Angreal and wanting to find where to place it reads good to me. So I'm leaning OK with him.

[Glengoyne]

Question for anyone who knows the books... what roles does the blue ajah play and/or what powers do they have? I still suspect that the blue ajah is indeed our black ajah (there has to be one since it is mentioned in the ruleset, right?). I was hoping for a counter claim for this to emerge but I think the blue is on to what would happen and instead chooses to remain silent. I don't know where to go from here really.

Among other things the blue ajah secretly found the Dragon Reborn.

[cheekimonk]

Among other things the blue ajah secretly found the Dragon Reborn.

Well, shit.

[path12]

I don't feel good about coffee at all. He has pretty much just repeated that the wolves spread their votes out on day one and that is where we should be voting. I hate his exchange about not voting for fellow Aiel because it doesn't help us out at this point

I didn't like that either. I'm not trying to bond with the other Illian, matter of fact helped lynch one of them. And day 1 votes mean little to me.

[Zinto]

Well I don't think I can or should wait any longer to....

[path12]

Going with the person I have the better town read from.

VOTE VAIMES

[Zinto]

unvote coffee
vote Vaimes

[path12]

Nope, changed my mind.

UNVOTE VAIMES
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [5] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874), Path (945), Zinto (946)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Zinto]

I would ask for a two vote cushion so that there isn't any shenanigans

[Shoveler]

TEN MINUTE WARNING

[Glengoyne]

Where is Vaimes? I was about to say he doesn't seem concerned, but...He has the cloak. So we may be headed for a no lynch?

[Glengoyne]

very much a thinking out loud question there.

[path12]

Count?

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [4] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874), Zinto (946)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [2] - Raven (737), path (947)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Vaimes]

Hi, still town.

If Raven is town, literally the entire scumteam was on Grover.

That means out of [Narcizo, Zinto, cheekimonk, timmae, path12, Glengoyne, Coffee Warlord], there's like four scum. Unless it's like a three person scumteam and one or two Third Party roles. Whatever. Four scum! That's a lot of mafia on one wagon. An entire group of scummy scum, ripe for the lynching.

I don't have the strongest reads in the world, but as fellow Aiel I'm going to assume Coffee Warlord and path12 are town. That leaves five: [Narcizo, Zinto, cheekimonk, timmae, Glengoyne].

Vote Zinto

I'm just going to sheep this.

cheekimonks push on me objectively makes sense, even though it's also the most opportunistic push to ever exist, so. That's super annoying.

Ideally, since there are some independent roles thrown into the mix, a mislynch toDay won't end the game.

This is all I really have to say. Just ignore the part about path being Aiel. I kinda think he's town, but I'm waffling.

I fully understand that from town's POV, I am very, very likely to be a Wolf. It sucks, but there really isn't anything I can do about it.

Better luck toMorrow.

[path12]

FUCK THIS GAME DRIVES ME CRAZY

UNVOTE COFFEE WARLORD
VOTE VAIMES

Cushion. cheekimonk, I hope you're right.

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [5] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874), Zinto (946), Path (956)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[cheekimonk]

I've considered that he has the cloak. A) I'm hoping "very hard to kill" doesn't equal "very hard to lynch" (it could be hard to NK the player, but not to lynch. B) If I think he's dark, I can't skip on him because he has an item at this point. It works or it doesn't, but I've got to go with my strongest feel.

[Vaimes]

Also, don't like. Immediately jump on cheekimonk toMorrow. If he's town, it's going to be super easy to push a mislynch on him.

If he somehow gets revealed to be a Wolf, welp.

[Vaimes]

Um.

It says two kill attempts are required to force me out of the game. I have no idea if this extends to lynching.

[Raven]

If the cloak prevented NK, Chief would still be alive

[cheekimonk]

I think my speech re: the Ter'Angreal should establish my village bona fides. If not, don't know what I could say.

[Shoveler]

DEADLINE

[Vaimes]

It also says I'm "tough to target in an attack," which implies being killed in the Night.

I guess we'll see!

[Glengoyne]

Also, don't like. Immediately jump on cheekimonk toMorrow. If he's town, it's going to be super easy to push a mislynch on him.

If he somehow gets revealed to be a Wolf, welp.


Will definitely not jump on Cheeki, no matter what goes down here.

[cheekimonk]

If the cloak prevented NK, Chief would still be alive

No. Because Vaimes stole it first.

[Autumn]

With next to little help available from the White Tower, male channelers on the use, and the Shadow growing bolder every night, the situation is desperate for those who try to uphold the Light. Clearly the Dark One’s finger touches the world, and yet you are no closer to finding his servants. Fingers point to the Aiel, who seem to have suffered little so far. Perhaps they are the nation harboring the Darkfriends. Vaimes is pointed out as the chief suspect, and the Aiel agree to bring him to justice. He disappears inside a chief’s tent in the Waste and does not emerge again.

Vaimes was an Aiel and a Villager. He served the Light.

[Autumn]

Night 4 has begun. Action deadline is 10 pm EST.

[path12]

I suck at werewolf. :(

[cheekimonk]

Welp...we know the wolves are lucky as hell as they stumbled into a triple kill: Vaimes happens to take the Warder's cloak, the Warder's lover dies, and we lynch Vaimes for that clearly suspicious activity. Damn.

[Glengoyne]

Welp...we know the wolves are lucky as hell as they stumbled into a triple kill: Vaimes happens to take the Warder's cloak, the Warder's lover dies, and we lynch Vaimes for that clearly suspicious activity. Damn.

When you put it like that. Wow...

[cheekimonk]

Not to mention their luck at us skipping one lynch altogether with Grover's move if self-preservation (of course, we could have lost 2 villagers from that tie so we had a very tiny bit of luck).

[timmae]

So strange... I cannot fathom how we lose 3 guys on a play like that. WTF. Worst game of WW ever. First we have EF's play as seer... why even try a stunt like that? Day 2 was ugly. But then Grover's self vote and nighfall. And that's not even the strangest play, that goes to Vaimes. Are we trying to lose this f'king thing?

[Raven]

Here is what i have with pairings that have not been eliminated.
For those with 4, any 3 within the group also can potentially work together.

I simply eliminated combos that have eliminated htemselves by their actions

Narc, Zinto, Glen, brit
Narc, timmae, Glen, brit
Narc, CW, glen, britt
Zinto, Glen, path, brit
cheeki, timmae, path, Glen
timme, path, glen
path, glen, cw

[Autumn]

Deadline

[Autumn]

Far off in the Waste, an Aiel steps out of his tent to greet the robed woman who approaches from the east. Her face is ageless, her robe hemmed with yellow. He nods, putting his hand into his sash and pulling out a small figurine. He hands it to the Aes Sedai and she smiles, holding it in one hand and examining it carefully. Lifting her hand in farewell, a bar of white light shoots from her, and the Aiel blinks out of existence. Laughing, the Aes Sedai turns, creating a portal, and stepping through it.

[Autumn]

Another Aiel moves through the strange wooded lands to the east, leaving his home in the Waste far behind. He carries a case given to him by his Chief, who says it was given to him by his Chief, and has passed through Aiel hands for generations. he does not know what it contains, it is not his to ask why. It is simply his to find the Car’a’carn and help him lead the battle to the Dark One. Perhaps lost in thought, perhaps weary from days of travel, he does not notice the stranger until he is nearly upon him. The Aiel pauses, cautious. In this land he does not know friend from foe, and any man he meets could be the one he seeks. The man smiles, offering a greeting, but then with a wave of his hand the Aiel is pierced with a jet of flame and collapses to the ground. Pushing the corpse into a ravine, the man picks up the case, absentmindedly, opening it casually as he goes on his way. What he finds inside though stops him in his tracks. He stares at it in shock, and then begins to laugh.

[Autumn]

“In the Stone of Tear, soldiers stand guard around an inner room. Inside there is pillar upon pillar, but nothing moves, the room lit only by the glow of a crystal sword which hands in the center, seemingly suspended in air. Footsteps sound, and the guards move aside for the Lord Defender of the Stone, a Tairien lord. Behind him follows another lord of Tairen, the two closing the doors behind them as they enter. The men approach Callandor, stopping short of the invisible wards which surround it. Hesitantly, slowly, one puts out one hand and then curses as a flash of light stops him. As he stands and watches, an opening appears in the air beside him, and a traveler, a man of Ilian appears from within. The Ilianer steps through, the portal closing behind him. Shortly after, another portal opens and the Aes Sedai of the Yellow Ajah appears. The man’s form changes, the Ilianer disappearing and a tall dark haired man standing in his place, his face a mask of arrogance. Staring for one moment of frustration at the sword hanging before them, the Forsaken shakes his head and turns away. Opening the case, he shows it to the others. Reaching his hand inside, the Forsaken removes the Horn of Valere and holds it up, the relic glinting in the light of Callandor.”

[Autumn]

“It’s time to roll the dice”

Those dice all came up with the dark ones eyes.

The game is over, the shadow has been victorious.

[timmae]

Holy kripes!!

[Autumn]

“Out side in the streets of Tear, a hooded woman glances up at the Stone, and a flash of blue glints on her forehead. Grabbing tightly to the arm of the man next to her, she pulls him quicker down the road, the two fleeing through the night towards the city gates.

“I found you just in time,” she mutters, more to herself, and the man looks at her, his face a mix of bewilderment and confusion.

“Me? I’m just a man. Not even highborn. I don’t understand what you want with me, you, and Aes Sedai--”

“Silence,” the blue sister hisses, glancing in every direction. “You don’t understand the danger we’re in. This city is not safe. I don’t know what city is now, but this one is not.” Pulling the boy along, she glances at him sideways, seeming amazed herself. “You are not highborn, and maybe that’s for the best. They won’t know where to look for you. But they will look. they will look. Because you, my boy, are the Dragon Reborn.”

[Autumn]

At the base of the Stone of Tear a figure lurks, moving from shadow to shadow. He looks up at the tall fortress and sniffs, and then shakes his head. Glancing in every direction he suddenly stares in one, looking far away in the direction of the Aes Sedai and the young man. Tilting his head to one side he stares and stares. Lifting a small figure of a man out of his pocket, he rubs it, as if for luck. Then, nose nearly to the ground and hurries forward into the dark.

[cheekimonk]

Translation of the first post: I gave timmae the Ter'Angeal. He turned out to be a Black Ajah.

[Autumn]

At the beginning of the evening, numerous behind the scenes transactions occur.
Cheekimonk hands a small statue of a woman to Timmae.
Glengoyne hands a ruby hilted dagger to Timmae.

A few hours later there is some curious skulking going on throughout the world.
Path12 has searched Raven’s estate for the Horn of Valere.
Zinto had searched Cheekimonk’s estate for the Horn of Valere.
Britrock88 has gone over the events of Raven’s life to determine whether he could be the Dragon Reborn.
Timmae has used the one power to produce a protective barrier around Zinto..

Coffee Warlord was killed by Zinto.

Britrock successfully found the dragon reborn, and escaped with Raven during the night. Raven was unaware that he was the true dragon.

With the lynching of Vaimes, the Warder’s cloak was randomly distributed to Glengoyne. Glengoyne also held the stone of Tear, which he gained after killing Fontisian during night one.

With the final night kill on Coffee Warlord, the Horn of Valere now rests in the possession of Path12, Coffee was unaware that he was in possession of the horn as it was merely a trinket he had claimed during his conquests.

Narcizo failed to find or kill the Dragon, but remains alive.

[Autumn]

That's all folks.

Your Shadow:
Zinto
Glengoyne
Timmae
Path12

Your Padan Fain:
Narcizo

Your unaware (until rightnow) Dragon:
Raven

Your Blue Ajah:
britrock88

[timmae]

Autumn... shoveler... awesome job. The story and setup was unreal. The adaption of WoT to WW was very well done and thought out. Awesome stuff fellas!

[timmae]

Still confused... did Narc win? Raven? Both?

[Vaimes]

That was probably the worst game of mafia I've ever played, as far as mislynching goes.

[Vaimes]

I am so sorry, me stealing the Warder's Cloak really fucked us over.

[Glengoyne]

Nicely done mods. The shadow was lucky indeed. Crazy lucky

[cheekimonk]

Autumn & Shoveler, that was insanely awesome. I only wish our play had been up to the standards of your efforts.

[path12]

WOO!!

Great write up at the end there Autumn/Shoveler. Fun game, thanks!

And congrats to my fellow shadows, you guys are good and I enjoyed eviling with you.

[Coffee Warlord]

I take solace that I had zinto and path pegged. Jeez.

[Autumn]

Still confused... did Narc win? Raven? Both?

Sorry, Victory Status:

timmae, zinto, glengoyne and path12: Win by gaining parity with the Light
Narcizo: Loses by failing to kill the Dragon
The Light: Loses by failing to eliminate The Shadow
Tinker: Loses by failing to convert those left to the Way of the Leaf
Factions: All end tied, and fail to reach victory conditions.

[Shoveler]

For those that haven't read the books.. If you do alot of driving for work or whatever, I would recommend the audiobooks for this series.

[cheekimonk]

I am so sorry, me stealing the Warder's Cloak really fucked us over.

Vaimes, you couldn't have known and, In turn, we can't be blamed for raising eyebrows at such a coincidence. As already mentioned, the wolves were almost impossibly lucky this game. Not that they didn't play with skill, but so many things fell right into their laps.

[timmae]

Great effort on this one zinto, path and glen... you guys rock!

Cheeki, vaimes and grover... we put you guys in very difficult situations. The fact that you were posting more at the end was the start to what could have been a turn in the game... I applaud the efforts. The luck was on the side of evil is all.

[Glengoyne]

Actually vaimes. If you hadn't snaked the cloak, I'm wondering if chief would have dodged the kill plus maybe recognized Path. That made what would have been a turning point into a landslide for the shadow.

You could have had no way to know that and avoid it, but Wow.

[Autumn]

Especially for those who don't know the books, what the end writeups tell you is that:

The Shadow won by killing of Coffee Warlord, leaving it 4-4.

They ended up in possession of Callandor, the Horn of Valere, and the female ter'Angreal, as well as the Warder's Cloak and the Ruby-hilted Dagger. Yikes.

Timmae was the Yellow Ajah, but secretly the Black, and was handed the ter'angreal tonight.

[Autumn]

Actually vaimes. If you hadn't snaked the cloak, I'm wondering if chief would have dodged the kill plus maybe recognized Path. That made what would have been a turning point into a landslide for the shadow.

You could have had no way to know that and avoid it, but Wow.

He wouldn't have seen his attacker, but he would have survived, along with MartinD, so it would certainly be a different game there. That was huge, obviously, and terrible luck for the Light. but it certainly wasn't the only such terrible luck they suffered.