WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[DaddyTorgo]

DT, I agree with you on the direction of the vote. Short of having wolf knowledge, I think it ends up being a wasted vote going for someone else right now. And you have to get the vote in to get the 15K. So no dispute there.

I'll talk about whatever you want over the next hour to help you avoid one bad decision - I just don't know if the other option (Jackal) is much better in terms of getting a Cutthroat.

I mean I guess the alternative is I vote for the third person who has votes on them.

It's as I feared with this game, the dearth of information so far is TBH making it hard for me to feel like I have any real meaningful insight. Particularly when coupled with the lack of voting/unvoting.

But I'm giving it my best shot.

I'm not sure Jackel is a much better play either, and he is also new (or at least new to me which means he can't be that old) so I feel a little bad about that.


I just dunno. And there's only 30 mins left till deadline.

[Chief Rum]

"I" don't know "what" you "mean".

Back, but don't see that much has changed since I started my two hour commute.

Chief, since we are actually online at the same time do you want to ask me some questions rather than just falling in line with voting for me for a third straight day?

I really have little idea about Jackal's goodness or badness, but I know that removing me shrinks the number of Rich remaining and will drain money from the game in the form of my assets that are locked up in CDs no matter what I try to do between now and the deadline.

Sorry, hoops, I didn't get to this earlier, and I had to leave the thread to get my transfer recruiting ready for the FOC-BBCF league. Now I am back and finally catching up.

Actually, I don't want to vote you out. I want you to be scanned. As a (taking out bribe talk for the moment) cleared villager, you would be a useful player. As an uncleared player, you are a distraction. As a dead good player, you don't do us any good at all. So best option is keep you alive and clear you.

That said, I think there's some rational thought behind my theories on you, and until evidence comes up contrary, I don't plan on renouncing them.

[DaddyTorgo]

maybe I take claphamsa's (drunken) word on jackall, as he was talking about him even prior to drinking, and if that doesn't pan out then maybe we look at getting the clap?

[Alan T]

Bleh, just got paged for work. Guess I'll be away a while. Back some time later this evening after deadline.

[claphamsa]

I mean I guess the alternative is I vote for the third person who has votes on them
It's as I feared with this game, the dearth


Stupid formating!

TBH?

Jackall is expirienced... just not at this level. hes played/GMd at TSW alot, and new more than all of us when he got there (except heinze maybe)

[claphamsa]

maybe I take claphamsa's (drunken) word on jackall, as he was talking about him even prior to drinking, and if that doesn't pan out then maybe we look at getting the clap?

ha ha, never heard that before.....

Just saying. I dont think hopps is bad, and at least he is trying, and not sure about jackyl

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not one to seize on RL as a reason to vote someone, but alan just gave 2 different excuses as reasons for why he's leaving the thread till after deadline. Just thought i'd point that out...*shrugs*

[Chief Rum]

I have already talked about my desired approach toeard hoopsguy, and I don't like the run on Jackal either. So I am going to throw my vote at another guy who has at least one vote, pretty much just because he is an option to the former two.

Good information about a candidate, though, and I will be willing to throw a vote elsewhere as well.

VOTE TYRITH

[claphamsa]

i'm not one to seize on RL as a reason to vote someone, but alan just gave 2 different excuses as reasons for why he's leaving the thread till after deadline. Just thought i'd point that out...*shrugs*
while i get and understand your point.... when is bbcf RL?

[hoopsguy]

Heh, if I could buy the damn seer I would hand him over to someone else to scan me at this point.

[claphamsa]

ill scan you.....

[claphamsa]

who else does everyone think shoudl be scaned?

[DaddyTorgo]

*AHEM*

chief didn't realize that we can't unvote? that smells wolfish to me, as in "i'm a bad guy so i'm going to be too lazy to read all the rules about villager voting."

it may be a "throwaway" technically, but that just screamed to me (and maybe i'm wrong too)

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[claphamsa]

acording to the lates list.. he hasnt voted... and i didnt see him voting afterward?

[claphamsa]

anyone got a count?

[Mr. Wednesday]

DT, which post are you referencing re: Chief not realizing we can't unvote?

[Mr. Wednesday]

4 to hoops, 4 to Jackal. Not sure about the others.

[claphamsa]

THX!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Let me correct that.
4 to hoops
3 or 4 to Jackal, depending on whether claphamsa's most recent vote is a vote.
2 to Tyrith
1 to Chief Rum

[hoopsguy]

I'll throw the idea out there publicly rather than trying to unilaterly make it happen later - a tie means no lynch. Which, in a game where we can vote to end it after Day 4, is an awfully good thing if neither of us are Cutthroats.

[DaddyTorgo]

I have already talked about my desired approach toeard hoopsguy, and I don't like the run on Jackal either. So I am going to throw my vote at another guy who has at least one vote, pretty much just because he is an option to the former two.

Good information about a candidate, though, and I will be willing to throw a vote elsewhere as well.

VOTE TYRITH

post 758

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

although I guess he said "as well" and I just noticed that

[claphamsa]

ok, did i not make it blue or bold? :( its a vote! but i dont want to revote, cuz i wann be the seer :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

It's bold, and it's a shade of blue, so hopefully it counts.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, if you are concerned about it make your intentions clear in a following post, something like:

"In the event my previous vote did not count, I vote"
<insert name bolded and in blue>

Note to self - I will be a smidge agitated if it moves somewhere else.

[path12]

DT, I think Chief was saying that he would be willing to throw a second vote out there if necessary.

Not to speak for Chief. And looks like I'll miss yet another deadline in BBCF.

[claphamsa]

jsut to claify!
]

i being of good sound mind and consons vote jackyl

[claphamsa]

that was a clarifyer not a second vote!

[path12]

I'll throw the idea out there publicly rather than trying to unilaterly make it happen later - a tie means no lynch. Which, in a game where we can vote to end it after Day 4, is an awfully good thing if neither of us are Cutthroats.

Any thoughts on this by anyone except the vote leaders? I can see the logic, but I'm also of the mind that we should lynch where possible, especially if the lynchee can give their money away beforehand.

[path12]

Never mind, I'm leaving this alone. My dinner has been waiting for 10 minutes.

VOTE TYRITH

[claphamsa]

10 min, then sleeeep!

[claphamsa]

no suggestions to the group on who to scan? i think hoops and mr W are the obvious chouces....

[Chief Rum]

*AHEM*

chief didn't realize that we can't unvote? that smells wolfish to me, as in "i'm a bad guy so i'm going to be too lazy to read all the rules about villager voting."

it may be a "throwaway" technically, but that just screamed to me (and maybe i'm wrong too)

VOTE CHIEF RUM

Umm, not that you can undo this, but mayhaps you should read my vote post again. Focus on the "throwing a vote elsewhere" bit, which says absolutely nothing about "unvoting", which I am perfectly aware can't be done in this game.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Not having to eliminate the cutthroats changes the calculus on not lynching a bit. However, I have to think that the amount of money they accumulated should be calibrated to favor them. Among other things, they're pretty much guaranteed to collect $15k on a kill thanks to the payoff for the rich dude casting a vote.

[hoopsguy]

I'll give it away beforehand, but if you are going to lynch me - and by a margin where it doesn't make sense to save myself with that same money because I know I'm a villager - then it had best happen quickly.

I'm here, Jackal isn't, it wouldn't be hard for me to snipe him if I was going in that direction. And it would make sense on either side - either I know I'm good or as a bad guy I'm getting rid of an opponent and buying another day as a Cutthroat - but I'm trying to play nicely with others.

[Chief Rum]

DT, I think Chief was saying that he would be willing to throw a second vote out there if necessary.

Not to speak for Chief. And looks like I'll miss yet another deadline in BBCF.

path gets an A+ in Comprehension! :)

[Passacaglia]

Never mind, I'm leaving this alone. My dinner has been waiting for 10 minutes.

VOTE TYRITH

Can I ask -- why Tyrith?

[Mr. Wednesday]

clap, I indicated upthread that hoops is probably safer from being killed tonight than me (he's had ample opportunity to shift his inheritance to the bank where it would go to his beneficiary and not the cutthroats), and therefore might be a better choice to scan between the two of us.

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, the trouble is that anybody who's going to swing the vote wants to wait as long as possible so that they don't have to spend extra money making sure it works.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah...i got that...after I voted I realized that chief/path

[hoopsguy]

I would talk about who to scan, but that hasn't worked out for me all that well so far this game.

Seriously, if I'm around in another few minutes and you still want to discuss it I'll offer up ideas.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, I'm not after you today, as I think I've made clear.

[hoopsguy]

You thought you were getting a double dola at four minutes to deadline?

[Mr. Wednesday]

My thinking on that is that it's still of some use to do the (actually non-) dolas because it indicates that there wasn't anything in-between when I voted. :)

[claphamsa]

clap, I indicated upthread that hoops is probably safer from being killed tonight than me (he's had ample opportunity to shift his inheritance to the bank where it would go to his beneficiary and not the cutthroats), and therefore might be a better choice to scan between the two of us.
saw that~

[claphamsa]

ha

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, if somebody's pulling a fast one, they did it late enough to pull it off.

[Barkeep49]

Deadline. Still figuring stuff out.

[claphamsa]

my problem becasue of the timming... i need to put in a conditional scan NOW or in the next 15 min... because there are about 9 hours a day i am not on the interweb (lame i know) and they are the night in this game...

[Chief Rum]

yeah...i got that...after I voted I realized that chief/path

lol...

[hoopsguy]

OK, lets see if tomorrow goes a little better. I'm mildly surprised there were not deadline antics.

[Barkeep49]

I have:
Hoopsguy – Schmidty (575), Tyrith (696), Hoops (704), Jackal (728)
Tyrith – Pass (698), Chief Rum (758), path (780)
Jackal – Sndvls (701), Hoops (706), Mr. W (709), clap (743)
Chief Rum – Daddy T(763)

Anyone have a correction?

[Chief Rum]

my problem becasue of the timming... i need to put in a conditional scan NOW or in the next 15 min... because there are about 9 hours a day i am not on the interweb (lame i know) and they are the night in this game...

Why are you certain you won the scan? Did I miss something?

[claphamsa]

lol...
meh same dif...

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think it's interesting that there was nothing amiss at the deadline. I don't know if there's anything we can take from that.

[claphamsa]

Why are you certain you won the scan? Did I miss something?

not sure... but gotta be prepared in case i do!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Why are you certain you won the scan? Did I miss something?
I don't know that he is certain. He did mention a conditional order, after all.

[claphamsa]

who is around?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I need to go do dinner prep, but I'll check back in after another fifteen minutes or so.

[claphamsa]

its 10 PM? man you people habe some wierd jobs :P

[Passacaglia]

OK, lets see if tomorrow goes a little better. I'm mildly surprised there were not deadline antics.

Me too.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, if you scan me you'll find I'm a member of the Rich (barring a conversion this evening prior to your scan).

MrW should have the most money in the game among the Rich, if he is a good guy. As far as I know, he has not won a service, nor did the person that gave him money. Probably makes sense to look at him.

Alan is a guy that I think you want to know where he stands - good ally, bad guy I would like to see removed from the map.

And I'm suspicious of Passacaglia of orchestrating today with nominating Tyrith.

So, this time I've supplied a list instead of one name. I guess I would ask that if you do pick someone I suggest, that you don't automatically vote me if they end up dead. That kind of sucked.

[Barkeep49]

While calls and influence was peddled madly there simply wasn't any consensus about who should go and so no one faces that oh so awful fate of bankruptcy.

Sadly, people don't seem interested in services today as only two received any bids. The winning bids were:
35002 for the Thief
38500 for the Private Investigator.

Night PMs to be a bit as I need to calculate everything.

[claphamsa]

Clap, if you scan me you'll find I'm a member of the Rich (barring a conversion this evening prior to your scan).

MrW should have the most money in the game among the Rich, if he is a good guy. As far as I know, he has not won a service, nor did the person that gave him money. Probably makes sense to look at him.

Alan is a guy that I think you want to know where he stands - good ally, bad guy I would like to see removed from the map.

And I'm suspicious of Passacaglia of orchestrating today with nominating Tyrith.

So, this time I've supplied a list instead of one name. I guess I would ask that if you do pick someone I suggest, that you don't automatically vote me if they end up dead. That kind of sucked.
well i hope i win... cuz we need some help!

[claphamsa]

:(

[claphamsa]

someone has more $$$ than me

night all!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Heeeenteresting.

[Barkeep49]

Oh dear. The auction house has made a mistake. A terrible, terrible mistake. It must now revise some of the bids:

The bodyguard went for 12500
And the Thief went for 40002

I got some last minute bids and didn't refresh my inbox before posting.

[hoopsguy]

Thief is now in play, which means that someone can be robbed at some point. I figure that people ought to make informed decisions tonight, and every night going forward.

On hand - Thief could choose to rob from here, FOB can't see it, but Cutthroats get this money by virtue of night kill

Bank - FOB sees it, Thief can choose to rob from here

CD - you can't spend it during day, can't give it away if up for bankrupcy, but it gains interest


Since the Thief only works one time, and is not bound to any given night, I think that CD/Bank are the better way to go for most of the Rich. I may or may not follow my own advice.

[Passacaglia]

Thief is now in play, which means that someone can be robbed at some point. I figure that people ought to make informed decisions tonight, and every night going forward.

On hand - Thief could choose to rob from here, FOB can't see it, but Cutthroats get this money by virtue of night kill

Bank - FOB sees it, Thief can choose to rob from here

CD - you can't spend it during day, can't give it away if up for bankrupcy, but it gains interest


Since the Thief only works one time, and is not bound to any given night, I think that CD/Bank are the better way to go for most of the Rich. I may or may not follow my own advice.

Just to add to this, it looks like no one bid on the FOB.

[The Jackal]

Well, I think that's the best thing that could have happened, really. Sorry I wasn't posting more before the deadline, i got caught up in some things. I don't have any reason to suspect you hoops, I imagine there's a good chance we're both nice rich folks caught in a scrum. Plus, we get a little more money from our votes. What would people recommend about keeping money on hand/in the bank? Even split, what? Whatever's advantageous to us, I'd like to do.

[Barkeep49]

I love the word scrum. That is all.

[Tyrith]

*smacks head into the table repeatedly*

Why why why why WHY!

We are absolutely NOWHERE right now! At least if we kill hoops we have some information, even if it would be bad for ME! And if we kill jackal and get lucky we have SOMETHING! The money can live after the player, but if we don't barbecue some wolves soon we're not going to be able to establish a long term plan. As in most games a no lynch is the absolute worst case scenario. And for the second day in a row, this time much worse than the first, I don't like what path did. Jeez, this is very very very lame.

[Chief Rum]

Did hoops not move money anywhere? I thought he was going to do that if he was going to get lynched (and he has definitely been on the block).

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, no lynch is so optimal for this game compared to lynching villagers.

No lynch puts more pressure on the wolves when villagers get another 15K every day just by virtue of voting.

No lynch equals money staying in game. A villager up for lynch - I know this all too clearly after today - can't gift away their CD money. It is lost from the game.

More alive villagers = better chance of putting this game away at end of Day 4.

I'm all for breaking a few eggs most games, but I thought that this made a good amount of sense today. And, considering that I could have sniped either you or Jackal today, I think you have to take me at my word that I believe what I'm typing here.

[hoopsguy]

Did hoops not move money anywhere? I thought he was going to do that if he was going to get lynched (and he has definitely been on the block).

Nope, I was never a clear-cut lynch so I kept it around in case I needed to save myself with an extra vote or three. Had I been down 5-1 or something like that I would have liquidated everything but my untouchable CDs.

[hoopsguy]

I was planning on calling it a night, but will stick around for 10-15 minutes of discussion if people want to do so.

[Tyrith]

Tyrith, no lynch is so optimal for this game compared to lynching villagers.

No lynch puts more pressure on the wolves when villagers get another 15K every day just by virtue of voting.

No lynch equals money staying in game. A villager up for lynch - I know this all too clearly after today - can't gift away their CD money. It is lost from the game.

More alive villagers = better chance of putting this game away at end of Day 4.

I'm all for breaking a few eggs most games, but I thought that this made a good amount of sense today. And, considering that I could have sniped either you or Jackal today, I think you have to take me at my word that I believe what I'm typing here.

And damnit, you're right. And I hate it. But if you were bad you had no reason to not off me at 859 and trade your life for mine as a delaying tactic. But this puts a freaking lot of the eggs in the basket of winning day 5. And honestly, if we win this game day 5 without killing a wolf, blocking a kill, spending three days not getting a freaking seer scan, and spending a lot of money on services, the game's rule system is borked. So I'm not really counting on that possibility.

[Barkeep49]

I need to make a rules clarification. To end the game 60% of players must vote to end it in the same cycle. This was always my intent. I don't think it changes strategies too severely.

[Tyrith]

Hoops, what do you think about the people taht were around at the lynch today and didn't vote? By your logic I'm inclined to trust them a pretty fair amount.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I guess the question is how much money are the bad guy accumulating? How much are they spending on services? How much cash did they start with? How many people did they start with?

Agree that there are a lot of variables to work through. I don't rule out the rule system being "borked" either ... it can happen with a different style of game.

[Tyrith]

Well, I guess the question is how much money are the bad guy accumulating? How much are they spending on services? How much cash did they start with? How many people did they start with?

Agree that there are a lot of variables to work through. I don't rule out the rule system being "borked" either ... it can happen with a different style of game.

yeah, it's possible. But I'd like to assume that it's not and play like it...winning a busted game in a busted way really doesn't show anything, test us any, or provide that much fun. In a normal WW game we'd be way behind right now.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I've been thinking about that very topic. And after being cynical about Alan and his "block PM" thing all day long I got the feeling that the wolves were very risk-adverse at the end. Not being able to communicate seems like a pretty good reason for that caution. Even if they thought they might not be able to PM, I doubt they had a discussion in advance about a tie. So I think that is enough for me to nudge Alan back to neutral for now.

Other option is that one of other two people in the tie (you and Jackal) were a Cutthroat and they were worried I would snipe if provoked. I consider this a little less likely, but still a possibility.

[Alan T]

i'm not one to seize on RL as a reason to vote someone, but alan just gave 2 different excuses as reasons for why he's leaving the thread till after deadline. Just thought i'd point that out...*shrugs*


Actually I updated my reason for not being away. Even in games when I have been a wolf, I don't ever lie about RL stuff. If you don't believe me then go here to see I'm not making it up: http://www.bb-bbcf.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=138 (and while there sign up to join our league!)

Anyhows, if you think I forced an entire league to wait two hours for a sim just to try to fool you in a werewolf game.. then well I don't know how to respond, just vote me I guess.

Anyways, we're having issues with one of our major FTP sites and it appears that I will be on and off the phone all evening and pulling an all nighter. Trying to catch up here when I can in the meanwhile.

[path12]

Can I ask -- why Tyrith?

He had votes on him, and I was OK with leaving Jackal and hoops tied at that point. No other reason. I actually don't have much suspicion of Tyrith at all.

[path12]

And for the second day in a row, this time much worse than the first, I don't like what path did.

I can understand if you don't like me leaving the tie. We can disagree on whether that was the best approach or not (and I'm not sure that it was), but what was your problem with me the day before?

[DaddyTorgo]

Actually I updated my reason for not being away. Even in games when I have been a wolf, I don't ever lie about RL stuff. If you don't believe me then go here to see I'm not making it up: http://www.bb-bbcf.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=138 (and while there sign up to join our league!)

Anyhows, if you think I forced an entire league to wait two hours for a sim just to try to fool you in a werewolf game.. then well I don't know how to respond, just vote me I guess.

Anyways, we're having issues with one of our major FTP sites and it appears that I will be on and off the phone all evening and pulling an all nighter. Trying to catch up here when I can in the meanwhile.

hope you know I wasn't trying to be a dick. just...grasping at straws really

[RendeR]

Arg, work interferes with my vote yet again. Sorry guys...

[The Jackal]

*smacks head into the table repeatedly*

Why why why why WHY!

We are absolutely NOWHERE right now! At least if we kill hoops we have some information, even if it would be bad for ME! And if we kill jackal and get lucky we have SOMETHING! The money can live after the player, but if we don't barbecue some wolves soon we're not going to be able to establish a long term plan. As in most games a no lynch is the absolute worst case scenario. And for the second day in a row, this time much worse than the first, I don't like what path did. Jeez, this is very very very lame.

I agree, we need to get some wolves, but lynching innocent rich folks, especially when we still probably don't know if our beneficiaries are trustworthy or not - it's not the best course of action. I'm willing to look at hoops more seriously tomorrow, though, if people truly believe him to be a cutthroat.

[The Jackal]

Just a warning, I won't be able to check the forums at work tomorrow, and I'm probably seeing a couple of buddies from out of town at night, so there may be a window in the afternoon when i can log on but I'll be away for most of the rest of it, don't think I'm ignoring any questions or gameplay.

[Alan T]

Barkeep, what is the plan for weekend play? It is appearing that I'm going to have a hectic day tommorrow, and my sister and her family arrive from canada tommorrow evening. I should be able to check in at some point during the day tommorrow, but this weekend I won't be on a ton.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I've been debating whether I should reveal this, and I think I will go ahead and do so lest I be killed in the night leaving the rest of you all wondering.

I'm the one who won the services of the thief, so if I should be killed, you won't need to worry about your bank account being emptied by the cutthroats &mdash; as I prefer to keep my non-invested money in the bank rather than on-hand, I thought it was extremely important that the cutthroats not get his services cheaply.

As of this writing I am not a cutthroat, but obviously that may not hold forever, so I cannot guarantee that the thief will remain "friendly".

[claphamsa]

who u gonna rob?

[Barkeep49]

You learned today that path was killed. It seems that he was walking and he strayed from the sidewalk. He had been warned never to stray off... the sidewalk and that was when the cutthroats did him in. At the reading of his will you learn that Pass stands to inherit his money.

Today's services up for bid are:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Wiretapper: Receives 20% of all money from successful auction bids on Days 4 & 5.
Notary Public: May change the beneficiary on another player’s will (without their knowledge). Must be used by Night 6.
Financial Analyst: Will learn the total money of 1 player. Must be used night 4.


Weekend Plan is to have a normal day today. Have night actions due sometime Sunday morning, most likely around 10 or so, and then have an extended Day 5. If you won't be around anytime between Friday night and Sunday morning I will be happy to accept conditional orders today.

[Chief Rum]

Being that tonight is Friday night, there is a good chance that after work I will not be around before deadline. So I have to vote now.

I think it's been difficult so far for us to pinpoint wolves and we really need people to come out with services they won after the fact. Mr. Wednesday coming out with the Thief for instance--that makes me feel better about him (even though he still could be a wolf). It's galling to me that no seer has stepped forward. Hopefully today will be different.

I won the bodyguard service last night. I protected myself and no one disturbed me. I considered using protection for another veteran, but I didn't feel I could pick out which one should be protected (yes, path would have been a choice). I felt I was as good a potential target as anyone, so I protected myself.

Since we don't have much to go on, I must fall back on UTR play for now (unfortunately).

VOTE RENDER

[Alan T]

I had a hell of a night, only got 2 hours of sleep and today looks pretty brutal workwise because of this issue I have. I'll pop in and out during the day to see what people have to say about various things.

After thinking things through a bit, I don't have much interest in pushing Hoopsguy for a lynch any longer. I don't necessarily have a direction yet figured out how I want to go today though. Schmidty came out hardest pushing for Hoops yesterday, but his play was classic Schmidty, I didn't really feel much of a diversion from his normal line of play. Passacaglia seemed to push a bit on Sndvls first which didn't get alot of traction and then changed to Tyrith which was a bit odd to me, so I might look that way. The Jackal got alot of heat mostly for not being around which I'm not sure at this point is the best time to try to snipe UtR players or not...

The only other two really pinging me right now are Render who missed two votes even though he was around in the thread.. Perhaps I should go back and look at those votes to see if his missing the vote could have played an impact on who was lynched in a different way to help the cutthroats.. My fundamental thinking though is the money is very important to the cutthroats, so I can't imagine them missing one or even two votes on purpose and losing 30k that way.. Chief Rum came out really quick for Render despite it seems unlikely that a wolf would have missed votes.. And Chief was pushing hard for Hoops for a few days, I might go back his direction too..

Either way, I don't plan on voting Hoopsguy today.

[RendeR]

Being that tonight is Friday night, there is a good chance that after work I will not be around before deadline. So I have to vote now.

I think it's been difficult so far for us to pinpoint wolves and we really need people to come out with services they won after the fact. Mr. Wednesday coming out with the Thief for instance--that makes me feel better about him (even though he still could be a wolf). It's galling to me that no seer has stepped forward. Hopefully today will be different.

I won the bodyguard service last night. I protected myself and no one disturbed me. I considered using protection for another veteran, but I didn't feel I could pick out which one should be protected (yes, path would have been a choice). I felt I was as good a potential target as anyone, so I protected myself.

Since we don't have much to go on, I must fall back on UTR play for now (unfortunately).

VOTE RENDER


DUDE!!! wtf? =)

[RendeR]

I'm going to put my vote in NOW so I don't miss it again.

Completely retaliatory =)

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Alan T]

Being that tonight is Friday night, there is a good chance that after work I will not be around before deadline. So I have to vote now.

I think it's been difficult so far for us to pinpoint wolves and we really need people to come out with services they won after the fact. Mr. Wednesday coming out with the Thief for instance--that makes me feel better about him (even though he still could be a wolf). It's galling to me that no seer has stepped forward. Hopefully today will be different.

I won the bodyguard service last night. I protected myself and no one disturbed me. I considered using protection for another veteran, but I didn't feel I could pick out which one should be protected (yes, path would have been a choice). I felt I was as good a potential target as anyone, so I protected myself.

Since we don't have much to go on, I must fall back on UTR play for now (unfortunately).

VOTE RENDER


Another thing that is buggging me about Chief Rum is here he says that hopefully today whoever got the seer service will step forward. Technically he says so far no seer has stepped forward but hopefully today that will be different. Why would you want the seer to come forward today? Whomever won the Private Investigator last night has it for last night and tonight.. Why would they out themselves today with no bodyguard to bid on today?

[hoopsguy]

OK, we've seen a kill every night up to this point. Does anyone think that there hasn't been at least one bribe by now? Going into last night both MrW and I - assuming we did not purchase services - should have had over 100K already. The rest of the Rich will be there in another day. This is the threshhold where it is financially correct for the Cutthroats to blackmail solely for economic reasons, to say nothing of secondary benefits of growing their ranks, having more vote influence, delaying end game, etc.

Do other people think that should enter into our line of thinking for today? I know that I'm still among the Rich - I haven't received an offer to accept/refuse - but I would say that this morning no matter what side I was on, right? And if we are bringing this into the discussion, how does it matter? If we don't have a seer scan to discuss (and I agree with Alan, although I had not caught that detail as I was a little bit distracted yesterday) then do we try to anticipate who would be bribe targets?

I'm really struggling to find the right context to view information in this game. I don't think that the structure of the game is the main reason for this - maybe a contributing factor in terms of voting patterns - but the lack of a Cutthroat lynch and publicly disclosed services makes this one a challenge so far.

[Alan T]

Hoops, if I am following you correctly, what you seem to be suggesting is a complete divergence from normal WW strategy today? Instead of the traditional try to find a wolf and lynch him for information, you seem to be proposing to go after one of the people with the most money I assume with the idea that if they are good they will transfer off money to other people they trust in the thread?

The only thing I'm having an issue with on that strategy is if they are bad, they have the ability to secretly pass their money to someone else without us even knowing whom.. and they can gurantuee to get someone they trust. A good person can try to transfer with good intentions but has no idea if they are sending the money to someone they trust or not. I think the downside is greater for the good than for the wolves on this.

It seems really the only way to really hurt the wolves is to try to lynch them on a day when their money is tied up in a CD where they can't move it.

[claphamsa]

also...... were gonna get some interestign things going on becasue of money.. if you try and lynch someone they can just buy votes to get out of it...... so we might see some bidding wars...

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm at least thinking in that direction - I don't think that traditional WW strategies necessarily hold up as well in this game. And that is why I was throwing it out for some level of discussion.

If I want to go wolf-hunting on gut, I think that Passacaglia would be my call today. Right now he is the either/or man in a couple of scenarios I've run through over the last couple of days. I'll probably go post hunting on his stuff at some point to try and solidify (or refute) my vibe.

[Schmidty]

I'm not backing down on this:

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Passacaglia]

hoops, from what I can tell, your suspicion of me is based on the fact that I pushed Tyrith. You've mentioned that at least twice now that my vote for him made you nervous, but you haven't really commented on my analysis. Do you think I'm "barking" up the wrong "tree" with what I said?

I asked if there was an attempt to save SnDvls Day 2. Looking at the votes, when it was 2-2, the next three votes went to mau -- Tyrith, then clap, then DT. Doesn't it just make sense to look at what happened there? After bringing it up, I felt like I was being stonewalled, mostly by SnDvls (although the fact that someone unrelated to it all, Alan, seemed to disagree with me makes me more unsure of myself). Yeah, SD was on the top of my list in this mode of thinking, but Tyrith was a very close second, and I thought it was a good idea to take out one in order to judge the other, and seemed better than anything else we had to go on, in my mind.

[DaddyTorgo]

Hoops, if I am following you correctly, what you seem to be suggesting is a complete divergence from normal WW strategy today? Instead of the traditional try to find a wolf and lynch him for information, you seem to be proposing to go after one of the people with the most money I assume with the idea that if they are good they will transfer off money to other people they trust in the thread?

The only thing I'm having an issue with on that strategy is if they are bad, they have the ability to secretly pass their money to someone else without us even knowing whom.. and they can gurantuee to get someone they trust. A good person can try to transfer with good intentions but has no idea if they are sending the money to someone they trust or not. I think the downside is greater for the good than for the wolves on this.

It seems really the only way to really hurt the wolves is to try to lynch them on a day when their money is tied up in a CD where they can't move it.


this is a pretty cool idea.

to be honest i'm not sure how much money I have. I have strictly been plowing it into CD's minus a tiny bit on hand.

Mr. W I have a proposition for you. I will transfer the bulk of my on-hand money to someone right now and then I ask that you use the thief right away to rob me of the rest, at which point the other person can give me money back. That way we will have at least some degree of trust established for several people.

[claphamsa]

Alan, I'm at least thinking in that direction - I don't think that traditional WW strategies necessarily hold up as well in this game. And that is why I was throwing it out for some level of discussion.

If I want to go wolf-hunting on gut, I think that Passacaglia would be my call today. Right now he is the either/or man in a couple of scenarios I've run through over the last couple of days. I'll probably go post hunting on his stuff at some point to try and solidify (or refute) my vibe.
scenerios youve run?

[claphamsa]

question about bribes....

If they give the 100K bribe to someone, say Hoops, would hoops keep the money as a wolf? or does the money go to the IRS?

[DaddyTorgo]

i plan on transferring my $$ around 11:30 EST when I finish this conference call I am about to go on.

anyone else have any thoughts about who they would like to see me transfer it to??

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

just realized what i should do is transfer to a couple people to at least try to get at least some modicum of temporary trust in them.

[claphamsa]

I dont see how that builds trust.....

[claphamsa]

Its not like someone would nto give it back becasue they are a wolf...

[Passacaglia]

this is a pretty cool idea.

to be honest i'm not sure how much money I have. I have strictly been plowing it into CD's minus a tiny bit on hand.

Mr. W I have a proposition for you. I will transfer the bulk of my on-hand money to someone right now and then I ask that you use the thief right away to rob me of the rest, at which point the other person can give me money back. That way we will have at least some degree of trust established for several people.

The only thing I see about this is that the thief only works at night.

[DaddyTorgo]

we'll see clappy.

at the very least it removes the thief very painlessly

[hoopsguy]

I'm not backing down on this:

VOTE HOOPSGUY

Look, your vote is in and you can't unvote, so I get to deal with that.

I didn't have the seer last night. If there was a member of the Rich who did get the seer power last night I think there is a good chance they would have scanned me. Alan is correct in saying that the person with the seer should stay quiet today since it is a two-day deal this time around. However, if the seer got a wolf I would think they would come forward today.

I would hope you would have at least given them time to do so, or have some discussion before pushing ahead with a vote on me. Did you even read the stuff that happened near the deadline last night? As a wolf I would have had every reason to try and tilt the vote towards one of the other candidates. I certainly had the cash to do so.

If you think that I got bribed last night and that is the reason for your vote then I could accept that argument. But you don't suggest that - your post says "continuation vote from yesterday". It was wrong then, and it was wrong now.

[DaddyTorgo]

still a sound strategy to use tonight though. just means i can move my money around later

question for Barkeep : when money comes out of CD's does it go "on hand" or "into the bank" ??

[claphamsa]

but the theif may be on our side, right? I guessI jsut dont get it. :(

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm announcing now that i plan to do that tonight, and i would like Mr. W to confirm that he is onboard for the plan.

i won't decide yet who to pass the $$ around to.

[DaddyTorgo]

mr. w says he is on our side today. but the cutthroats know he has the thief, they may try to convert him ASAP.

and i'd rather take the knowledge the thief is gone out of the game with lesser impact and give up the potential to hit a cutthroat and steal a ton of money versus have the thief end up on the cutthroat's side.

[claphamsa]

but what if Mr W wants to use his power to rob someone? I mean its a useful roll.... Why not rob someone who may be a cutthroat?

[DaddyTorgo]

at least this is getting discussion going on something, this idea

drawing some lines of connection between mr. w + clap in my mind maybe? or maybe i'm being overly paranoid?

[Alan T]

I hate having to put in a really early vote in a game I can't unvote, but I honestly don't know how much availability I will have today because of work, and then driving out to Springfield at 4 today for a few hours, then my sister's family coming in town. I'll make my case for my vote now and hope its the correct direction.

I'm voting Passacaglia because of what went on yesterday. It seemed like he was trying to force a conversation about Sndvls that just didn't have much teeth to it. Instead of sticking to his guns and voting Sndvls if that is where he honestly felt was the right place to go he instead went to vote Tyrith after Hoops had mentioned that he might look that way that day. It seemed like he was getting in front of the bull so to speak with his vote.

Maybe I am just overparanoid about pass after our brushing against each other last game, but its where my vote is going today

Vote Passacaglia

[Alan T]

Dola, I should still be around most likely for on and off discussion for a bit... but there is a high probability that I might end up disappearing because of work and never resurface too.

[hoopsguy]

DT, I think the idea of transferring the money to build trust isn't a bad one but I'm not sure how to most effectively pull it off.

I strongly considered last night donating money in 10K chunks to people who were around at deadline and telling them that they could either use it on a vote to help keep me alive or keep it for themselves. But since I was in a tie down the stretch I didn't go that direction.

I agree with what you are saying about the value of the discussion and that Clap's sudden interest related to MrW raises an eyebrow.

[Tyrith]

I'm really struggling to find the right context to view information in this game. I don't think that the structure of the game is the main reason for this - maybe a contributing factor in terms of voting patterns - but the lack of a Cutthroat lynch and publicly disclosed services makes this one a challenge so far.

This is why it might have been a good idea to take the risk of lynching an innocent yesterday.

[Tyrith]

And Pass is the guy that pings my radar next, now that the hoops death fest is over, for all the reasons described -- he has been trying to drive action where there isn't always action to be driven. Part of that could just be trying to stir up conversation, but there just hasn't been much that made me feel good about him going back to day 1.

Although if hoops is bad I'm going to have a screaming fit :P

[Passacaglia]

still a sound strategy to use tonight though. just means i can move my money around later

question for Barkeep : when money comes out of CD's does it go "on hand" or "into the bank" ??

How can we use this strategy tonight, if Mr. Wednesday gets converted tonight? The more I think about it, the more I think that the best thing we can do is just vote him off tonight. We can at least take solace in the fact that the wolves didn't get it -- unless he's a wolf, in which case we've killed him anyway, so they still don't get it.

[claphamsa]

Im not interestedin Mr W. just in his idea....

[Passacaglia]

How can we use this strategy tonight, if Mr. Wednesday gets converted tonight? The more I think about it, the more I think that the best thing we can do is just vote him off tonight. We can at least take solace in the fact that the wolves didn't get it -- unless he's a wolf, in which case we've killed him anyway, so they still don't get it.

I guess what worries me, though, is that some other wolf got it, and Mr. Wednesday is taking the heat for it, having transferred his money to some other wolf anyway. Although my hunch is that they didn't bank on us wanting to kill the thief if he came out.

[Tyrith]

Pass, we don't have to kill him to make him give away his money.

If we decide to do that, if he gives it over voluntarily we could let him live and do something better with our time.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I believe MrW stated he won the thief during the night phase. So he either won as a wolf and took the approach of revealing that he won it (seems counter-intuitive) or he won it as a villager and there is a chance (better than average, probably) that he was converted.

I'll double-check the timestamps on his Thief reveal in a few minutes, working through some other posts at the moment.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, we don't have to kill him to make him give away his money.

If we decide to do that, if he gives it over voluntarily we could let him live and do something better with our time.

I didn't say I wanted to make him give away his money. I think that the theif ability alone is enough to make him a conversion target -- TONIGHT. I don't see how there's any way we can make use of it, so I'm thinking the best thing we can do is get rid of it.

[Tyrith]

I didn't say I wanted to make him give away his money. I think that the theif ability alone is enough to make him a conversion target -- TONIGHT. I don't see how there's any way we can make use of it, so I'm thinking the best thing we can do is get rid of it.

So they're going to convert him for 15k and the chance to steal an amount that is unlikely to be 85k? That's a bad economic risk to take for a conversion.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, I believe MrW stated he won the thief during the night phase. So he either won as a wolf and took the approach of revealing that he won it (seems counter-intuitive) or he won it as a villager and there is a chance (better than average, probably) that he was converted.

I'll double-check the timestamps on his Thief reveal in a few minutes, working through some other posts at the moment.

I think I wasn't clear -- my "grassy knoll" theory has him as a wolf from the beginning, that didn't win the thief. So now we're all discussing him, instead of who really won the thief. But that seems unlikely -- my thinking is that Mr. Wednesday really did win the Thief, and we need to kill him.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, that isn't how the numbers would add up. They will bid something up to 100K to get a guy who has:

1.) Started with 30K
2.) Voted three times for another 45K
3.) Inherited money from another player after Day 2, assuming no expenses that is 60K
4.) Spent 40K (going from memory) for the Thief

So using those quick numbers, he has 95K now and will have another 15K tonight after voting. And, on top of it, the ability to steal the night after he is converted.

The same kind of math basically applies to any of us - most have not gotten an inheritance, but most have not spent 40K on a service either. The point is that a conversion is profitable on most of the players in the game right now strictly as a short-term play, and absolutely as a long-term play.

[Passacaglia]

So they're going to convert him for 15k and the chance to steal an amount that is unlikely to be 85k? That's a bad economic risk to take for a conversion.

If they're going to convert someone, why not him? First of all, it's not 15K at the moment -- he hasn't given away any money yet, and I haven't heard him say he plans to do so. Also, the thief has the power to take money from the wolves -- they'd be saving themselves the worry of having their own money stolen.

[Tyrith]

Tyrith, that isn't how the numbers would add up. They will bid something up to 100K to get a guy who has:

1.) Started with 30K
2.) Voted three times for another 45K
3.) Inherited money from another player after Day 2, assuming no expenses that is 60K
4.) Spent 40K (going from memory) for the Thief

So using those quick numbers, he has 95K now and will have another 15K tonight after voting. And, on top of it, the ability to steal the night after he is converted.

The same kind of math basically applies to any of us - most have not gotten an inheritance, but most have not spent 40K on a service either. The point is that a conversion is profitable on most of the players in the game right now strictly as a short-term play, and absolutely as a long-term play.

Working on the assumption that he gives away most/all his money.

[Tyrith]

If they're going to convert someone, why not him? First of all, it's not 15K at the moment -- he hasn't given away any money yet, and I haven't heard him say he plans to do so. Also, the thief has the power to take money from the wolves -- they'd be saving themselves the worry of having their own money stolen.

Aaand we're back to the wonderful place where role reveals are a total screwjob for us. At best. And you're probably right, if we did nothing. But we have all day to hold the gun in his face and get that number down.

[Passacaglia]

Aaand we're back to the wonderful place where role reveals are a total screwjob for us. At best. And you're probably right, if we did nothing. But we have all day to hold the gun in his face and get that number down.

That didn't work very well yesterday, and even if he does give away all his money, I still think he's a prime conversion target.

[Tyrith]

*thinks again*

No. This path is bad. We're being led to lynch a guy that we are assuming is GOOD by a person that's near or at the top of most of our distrust lists when we have few people we can trust at all right now?

We're working on the assumption that wolves get some infinite number of conversions, which is kind of silly. And if someone paid a bribe to a good guy and it worked THEY WOULDN'T LOSE ANY MONEY, so it'd be pretty much free money if they could do it infinitely. Let's be reasonable, this probably has to be a one time shot on their part. If that's the case, why would they wait until now to do it? That's so much longer they can't coordinate their plans, come up with some coherent strategy, so much longer that the money is out of their control. We assume a live wolf can generate cash just as fast as a live villager can, and if that's true why wait? This thief thing here was a major slip up on our part, and most people aren't going to wait on the hope for something like this.

[Passacaglia]

The rules say the wolves can attempt to bribe a player or players. That's what made me think they could bribe mutiple times. Are you thinking they can bribe as many players as they want, but all in one night?

[Passacaglia]

Also, the rules say that the money used to successfully bribe someone is removed from the game, so they do lose money.

[Tyrith]

Ah, okay on the rules thing.

Player or players is BK being ambiguous with the rules, IMO. He wouldn't tell us anything earlier, but the fact that it says players should not be taken in my mind as a sign that they can convert everyone they want.

It just seems to me we desperately need to lynch a wolf now, not just lynch a conversion target. We lynch Mr.W and you're right about the conversion abilities, they just convert someone else. That doesn't help us any. It runs us around in a no trust circle. And my guess is right now we're amazingly far behind in this game.

[path12]

No. This path is bad.

No. This path is dead. :( Good luck rich guys!

[Mr. Wednesday]

this is a pretty cool idea.

to be honest i'm not sure how much money I have. I have strictly been plowing it into CD's minus a tiny bit on hand.

Mr. W I have a proposition for you. I will transfer the bulk of my on-hand money to someone right now and then I ask that you use the thief right away to rob me of the rest, at which point the other person can give me money back. That way we will have at least some degree of trust established for several people.

I don't really follow how this would establish trust. The only thing that I can see that we would get out of that sequence is the knowledge that I no longer have the thief at my disposal. For selfish reasons, I like having him around as a sort of semi-insurance policy against getting killed (it's a bit of an incentive to bribe me instead). For unselfish reasons, I think he's potentially very useful if we could ever actually identify a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

I don't know what the limits are on bribes and BK wasn't telling. I'm certainly hoping there is some kind of a limit on that action - if not, then the 100K pricetag as max naming price is way too low.

[hoopsguy]

Here is a thought that I think makes sense with the Thief. Have someone who wins Friend of Bank suggest a couple of candidates for the Thief based on what they learn about finances - most likely the outliers who have either a ton of money or no money in the bank.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If you lynch me, $70k (my money in the bank) will go from me (who I know to not be a cutthroat) to one or more others whose status I don't know. On top of that, the rest of my money which is in CDs (and I don't remember exactly how much that is) is going to be lost, and that's at least $20k.

With successful bribes being removed from the game, I don't think we've reached a point yet where it makes monetary sense for the cutthroats to bribe someone. They'd need to dump the whole $100k to be certain of it working, and when they kill instead, they get a guaranteed $15k for anyone that cast a vote, plus anything else they might have on hand, plus the chance that the player had named a wolf as beneficiary.

[Passacaglia]

Ah, okay on the rules thing.

Player or players is BK being ambiguous with the rules, IMO. He wouldn't tell us anything earlier, but the fact that it says players should not be taken in my mind as a sign that they can convert everyone they want.

It just seems to me we desperately need to lynch a wolf now, not just lynch a conversion target. We lynch Mr.W and you're right about the conversion abilities, they just convert someone else. That doesn't help us any. It runs us around in a no trust circle. And my guess is right now we're amazingly far behind in this game.

Say we lynch a wolf. He'll probably transfer all his money to another wolf -- remember, they can transfer money during the daytime. This doesn't really help us.

Say we DON'T lynch the thief. The wolves take it, and get a free steal of someone's money. This really hurts us.

[Passacaglia]

Here is a thought that I think makes sense with the Thief. Have someone who wins Friend of Bank suggest a couple of candidates for the Thief based on what they learn about finances - most likely the outliers who have either a ton of money or no money in the bank.

Do you mean someone who's already won friend of the bank? If you're looking for someone who to win it in the future, I think that method is too slow.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Here is a thought that I think makes sense with the Thief. Have someone who wins Friend of Bank suggest a couple of candidates for the Thief based on what they learn about finances - most likely the outliers who have either a ton of money or no money in the bank.

I'm not sure "a ton of money" is an outlier. Up until last night, there was no risk of it going anywhere, so it would be silly to keep any money as cash onhand &mdash; getting killed would give cash onhand to the wolves, whereas money in the bank would go to the beneficiary.

You're right, though, that no money in the bank is one heck of an outlier. I think we've mentioned that before, so I'd imagine the cutthroats have tried to avoid being conspicuous there, but one never knows.

[Passacaglia]

Here's a thought. When path died, he had 10K in the bank -- the rest of it was in a CD. However, my thinking before this had been that the wolves were killing people with no money in the bank. hoops and wednesday -- can you guys verify this?

[claphamsa]

If you lynch me, $70k (my money in the bank) will go from me (who I know to not be a cutthroat) to one or more others whose status I don't know. On top of that, the rest of my money which is in CDs (and I don't remember exactly how much that is) is going to be lost, and that's at least $20k.

With successful bribes being removed from the game, I don't think we've reached a point yet where it makes monetary sense for the cutthroats to bribe someone. They'd need to dump the whole $100k to be certain of it working, and when they kill instead, they get a guaranteed $15k for anyone that cast a vote, plus anything else they might have on hand, plus the chance that the player had named a wolf as beneficiary.

how can you have so much money? you did bid 40K on the theif right? you should have about 50K, if im off let me knw, cuz this is raising a flag for me.

[Tyrith]

Say we lynch a wolf. He'll probably transfer all his money to another wolf -- remember, they can transfer money during the daytime. This doesn't really help us.

Say we DON'T lynch the thief. The wolves take it, and get a free steal of someone's money. This really hurts us.

We need to lynch the wolf to have people we can TRUST. We aren't going to win this game by blindly giving away money or having people die and give money to random people. Our money needs to stay on OUR SIDE, and lynching a wolf gives us an actual voting record that we can use to figure out who is on our side. To assume that we're going to win by playing only defense is the height of folly in my opinion.

[Tyrith]

how can you have so much money? you did bid 40K on the theif right? you should have about 50K, if im off let me knw, cuz this is raising a flag for me.

He was saldana's heir.

[Passacaglia]

We need to lynch the wolf to have people we can TRUST. We aren't going to win this game by blindly giving away money or having people die and give money to random people. Our money needs to stay on OUR SIDE, and lynching a wolf gives us an actual voting record that we can use to figure out who is on our side. To assume that we're going to win by playing only defense is the height of folly in my opinion.

I'm not assuming we're going to win by playing only defense. I'm coming up with a strategy on how to deal with the power of the thief.

[hoopsguy]

Do you mean someone who's already won friend of the bank? If you're looking for someone who to win it in the future, I think that method is too slow.

Obviously the more recently someone has won it, the more value there is within the information. But yes, I think that anyone who has held this power could feel free to chime in here. If they have comments that pique the interest of another person who had it because of big discrepancies, then that could be useful information to have.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure "a ton of money" is an outlier. Up until last night, there was no risk of it going anywhere, so it would be silly to keep any money as cash onhand — getting killed would give cash onhand to the wolves, whereas money in the bank would go to the beneficiary.

You're right, though, that no money in the bank is one heck of an outlier. I think we've mentioned that before, so I'd imagine the cutthroats have tried to avoid being conspicuous there, but one never knows.

The main point is to identify the people who are outside the norm. People who have inherited money should have more money than people who have not. So I think there has to be a level of reason applied to the "outlier" status on the high end, if that is where you are going.

[DaddyTorgo]

i think i sort of like pass' point about bankrupting Mr. W tonight

we all need to remember that it's not NUMBERS that win this game, it's $$$

[claphamsa]

duh..

thanks!
He was saldana's heir.

[hoopsguy]

OK, did some post digging on Pass and I'm not as convinced now as I was going in that he is the right vote. His arguments aren't as "pick the hot candidate" as I thought they were before this exercise.

Post #156 - vote off Swaggs, almost exact same time as Lathum (4 hours before deadline), he is third vote on candidate who has been discussed all day

Post #163 - Pass defends Lathum to Tyrith as not starting landslide on Swaggs. My initial reaction was being uneasy that he defended another player on D1. Why defend someone if you don't have any idea about guilt/innocence? However, Lathum was Rich and Pass may have been worried about guilt by association on run-up - this makes sense on either team, to some extent. Not a huge deal on its own looking back, imo

Post #394 - votes for SnDvls, thinks he was misleading on DT vote and "double vengeance vote" on Mauboy got his attention

Post #601 - Pass asks Path if Schmidty is also on his shortlist

Post #642 - Path says Pass is "much higher on my list than Schmidty". Path did mention other people (me, SnDvls, and Arles) at other points, but think this is worth noting with him now being night killed

Post #665 - Pass asks what we think of SnDvls as candidate, who was mentioned earlier by Alan in context of vote yesterday

Post #668 - Pass says that Tyrith helped save SnDvls during Day 2

Post #674 - Pass presses SnDvls, saying that he may have been "saved" during vote despite dead villagers playing a role in "saving" him

Post #698 - Pass votes for Tyrith

Pass #718 - Pass voted Tyrith partly for going after me with high money count, partly out of thinking he was trying to save SnDvls yesterday.


He obviously has a lot more posts than this, but these are the ones I pulled where he was discussing other people and his votes.

[hoopsguy]

I'm always guilty of thinking the worst of AlanT in these games, even today when it doesn't seem like he is going to come after me.

Yesterday I felt like he was questioning me in a way that he was basically trying to get me to change my facts. It didn't feel like a give-and-take conversation where he was trying to understand my play, but to question it and draw others towards it. That is a big part of why I was getting frustrated yesterday afternoon - I didn't want to be part of a dog-and-pony show where I'm answering questions for wolves who are going to vote to lynch me anyway. While, in the process, diverting conversation from all other directions.

Today he has completely backed off looking at me. He has questioned Chief Rum Re; the seer and he has voted for Passacaglia, who I have indicated is my most likely target. I think what we are supposed to infer is that he picked up the seer last night and that he scanned me and I showed up as Rich. Meanwhile, I'm supposed to be grateful to not be in the line of fire today.

However, the wolves had quite a bit of incentive to land the seer yesterday since it was a two-day option. They haven't had a scan released yet and having the ability to shut us out for another two days on top of that must have been appealing for them. If the wolves actually could communicate yesterday (which would mean Alan was lying about shutting down their communications) then I have to believe they would have put in a big order for this.

Alan had 21K for the Telecomm and 40K for the seer. This could happen in the framework of the game, but it doesn't give him much wiggle room.

30K starting
45K for votes
-10K for changing beneficiaries
So he would have about 4K available - close enough that I should look up the numbers to get exact figures on the cost of services.

The game will get easier for me if I actually believe that he is on my side. But after re-evaluating Pass I'm having a harder time trusting Alan. I strongly suspect that these two are on opposite sides right now.

[Passacaglia]

Damn, that killed the discussion.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so now there is something new to chew on (see my last post)

Kills of Lathum, Saldana, and Path go against the idea that Saldana floated earlier about an inexperienced wolf team, in my opinion. That also supports the idea of Alan as a wolf, although the same could be said for me or Pass for that matter.

[Passacaglia]

Oh, looks like there is something to discuss! Comments will probably have to wait until after lunch for me.

[Alan T]

I'm always guilty of thinking the worst of AlanT in these games, even today when it doesn't seem like he is going to come after me.

Yesterday I felt like he was questioning me in a way that he was basically trying to get me to change my facts. It didn't feel like a give-and-take conversation where he was trying to understand my play, but to question it and draw others towards it. That is a big part of why I was getting frustrated yesterday afternoon - I didn't want to be part of a dog-and-pony show where I'm answering questions for wolves who are going to vote to lynch me anyway. While, in the process, diverting conversation from all other directions.

Today he has completely backed off looking at me. He has questioned Chief Rum Re; the seer and he has voted for Passacaglia, who I have indicated is my most likely target. I think what we are supposed to infer is that he picked up the seer last night and that he scanned me and I showed up as Rich. Meanwhile, I'm supposed to be grateful to not be in the line of fire today.

However, the wolves had quite a bit of incentive to land the seer yesterday since it was a two-day option. They haven't had a scan released yet and having the ability to shut us out for another two days on top of that must have been appealing for them. If the wolves actually could communicate yesterday (which would mean Alan was lying about shutting down their communications) then I have to believe they would have put in a big order for this.

Alan had 21K for the Telecomm and 40K for the seer. This could happen in the framework of the game, but it doesn't give him much wiggle room.

30K starting
45K for votes
-10K for changing beneficiaries
So he would have about 4K available - close enough that I should look up the numbers to get exact figures on the cost of services.

The game will get easier for me if I actually believe that he is on my side. But after re-evaluating Pass I'm having a harder time trusting Alan. I strongly suspect that these two are on opposite sides right now.

I honestly don't know why you are pushing me on this.. you are smart enough to figure out what happened. What you are doing is setting me up to be night killed on a night with no bodyguard instead.

I don't think its a good idea for me to spell it out completely right now. I'll say this.. if you get the Lawyer service tommorrow and decide to use it on me, you will be able to figure out how I had a little extra money than what you might think.

I've taken some educated risks in this game in what I think was best for our side. I will say the following, which is the truth. If the wolves come after me tonight to kill me, they aren't going to get a whole lot of cash from me.

[Barkeep49]

question for Barkeep : when money comes out of CD's does it go "on hand" or "into the bank" ??
On hand

[Alan T]

Well , actually since you came right out and said what I bid on and gave people the exact direction to look into seeing it.. I guess my attempt to not just spell it out is rather blown.

I had 30k to start. Tried to get the government insider night 1 and failed. had 45k to bid from day 2. I bid something like 21,455 for the telecomm service. (I would have to go back and look to see the exact amount), which left me with 23.5k roughly + 15k from voting that day.. According to Barkeep I had a bit over 38k yesterday to bid, of which I spent all but like 500 dollars. I did get 15k from voting however and now have 15.5k.

I can now say the following are true thanks to Hoops blowing my cover =\

1) Hoopsguy is good, I scanned him last night.
2) I still have Swaggs as my beneficiary. I have not changed it as of yet, and I know that was a risk, but I figured if I spent all of my money there wasn't much to deal with anyhows. I would ratherr spend the 10k trying to make sure I got the telecomm or seer services than to change my beneficiary. This is also something provable with the lawyer service tommorrow.
3) I will not say if my money is on hand or in the bank, but I obviously have very little cash right now. I am hoping that is enough to keep the wolves away from me. Without a bodyguard I guess I am a goner tonight though.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, anyone paying attention should have been able to pick up your change in direction on me from yesterday to today. That, plus the comments to Chief Rum about the two days, clearly indicated that you were at the very least indicating you were the seer.

You are either exactly who you are now saying you are or you are working with the Cutthroat team and had access to information that the team has purchased. That is what I was working through with my post.

The Lawyer thing is interesting, but of course it requires us to wait until Night 5 to use it. Ideally, I would rather catch a wolf today or tomorrow and not ever get to Night 5 by voting the game over.

Alan, have you ever invested any of your money into CDs along the way?

[Alan T]

Alan, anyone paying attention should have been able to pick up your change in direction on me from yesterday to today. That, plus the comments to Chief Rum about the two days, clearly indicated that you were at the very least indicating you were the seer.

You are either exactly who you are now saying you are or you are working with the Cutthroat team and had access to information that the team has purchased. That is what I was working through with my post.

The Lawyer thing is interesting, but of course it requires us to wait until Night 5 to use it. Ideally, I would rather catch a wolf today or tomorrow and not ever get to Night 5 by voting the game over.

Alan, have you ever invested any of your money into CDs along the way?

No, I have kept all money up until now on hand usable each day in which I bid a good chunk almost every day on services. I went back to pull up how much money I had daily to provide for "accounting" purposes:

30000 - start
45000 - Day 2
38545 - Day 3
15045 - Day 4

Day 1 I bid 30k on the Govt insider, and failed to get it.
Day 2 I bid 21,455 on the Telecomm service
Day 3 I bid 38500 on the private investegator.

Today I haven't decided what to do with the money however.

[hoopsguy]

And your numbers match up with Swaggs still listed as your beneficiary.

So, since you are clearing me lets work through some of the remaining players together. As I noted earlier, I don't think you are on the same team as Passacaglia at this point whichever way it breaks out.

Why do you think that both Pass and Chief, who you mentioned yesterday, sat back and allowed yesterday to be a tie?

[Alan T]

And your numbers match up with Swaggs still listed as your beneficiary.

So, since you are clearing me lets work through some of the remaining players together. As I noted earlier, I don't think you are on the same team as Passacaglia at this point whichever way it breaks out.

Why do you think that both Pass and Chief, who you mentioned yesterday, sat back and allowed yesterday to be a tie?


I wasn't around at the deadline so didn't quite see how things worked out in real time so to speak. Just going back through it, assuming either or both were around at the deadline.. if they were not eager to get you voted off, it has to ask one of the following questions:

1) What does that tell us about the other options for the day at the time which I believe was you, Tyrith and TheJackyl. THis doesn't apply only to Pass or Chief, but to everyone who was around.. If they had no incentive to save one over the other, does this mean that none of the three were wolves?

2) With the way rules are set up here, asuming the wolves could pool money or move money once a day, you could assume any one wolf could force a player to be lynched regardless of what other votes are out there by simply paying $50k or $70k or something and voting 7 times at deadline for the same person which at least up till now would be sufficient for a lynch. The reason they don't do so is that it financially is not worth it for them. In this game people are expendable, its money that is important.

So my instincts say at least that since the wolves couldn't communicate yesterday they had no ability to really move money around at deadline to save one of their own, thus the way things went down at the deadline helps me feel better about both Tyrith and TheJackyl today (Which my initial post this morning seemed to give that indication that I felt going after the Jackyl again today was a mistake).

[Alan T]

The cliff notes version of what I just wrote for those who like to skip my posts:

I think yesterday's vote probably says less about Chief or Pass and says more about Tyrith and TheJackyl likely being good.

[hoopsguy]

Next question - what do you think the night kills say, given that both of us are Rich and not Cutthroats?

[Alan T]

Going back over the voting chart from yesterday:

Barkeep's post in 802:

1 Hoopsguy (575) - Schmidty
2 Hoopsguy (696) - Tyrith
2 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith (698) - Passacaglia
2 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 1 Jackal (701) - Sndvls
3 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 1 Jackal (704) - Alan T
3 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 2 Jackal (706) - Hoopsguy
3 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 3 Jackal (709) - Mr. W
4 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 3 jackal (728) - Jackal
4 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 4 Jackal (743) - Claphasma
4 Hoopsguy 2 Tyrith 4 jackal (758) - Chief Rum
4 Hoopsguy 2 Tyrith 4 jackal 1 Chief Rum (763) - Daddy Torgo
4 Hoopsguy 3 Tyrith 4 jackal 1 Chief Rum (780) - Path

I guess it makes me feel better about jackal than Tyrith. Tyrith didn't seem to be in too much danger until a late run on him. However I think its still enough for me to lean ok on Tyrith too for now.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, the Wiretapper gets a % of the bids on the day that we bid for the Wiretapper? It lists Days 4 and 5 (and today is, duh, Day 4) under the description.

[Alan T]

Next question - what do you think the night kills say, given that both of us are Rich and not Cutthroats?

I have been trying to get a handle on that. I think someone already suggested the most likely scenerio earlier in the game.. They probably were trying to find people who possibly had named them as beneficiaries. Based on your reports of what you got from Lathum, it seemed unlikely that the wolves got much if anything from him. Killing people isn't enough in this game, they need to try to figure out where to go to get the money.

I wonder where we would end up if we took the opposite approach of normal night kill analysis. Instead of trying to figure out why the wolves were scared of an individual, perhaps we should look to see who the person killed trusted the most? Of course this entire approach could be a big red herring as we aren't sure how much money they started with and if they are in the driver seat for day 5 vote or not (the ending the game vote).

I see one of two scenerios as far as that is concerned.. either the wolves started with substantially more money than us but less ability to gain it daily (Thanks to the number of villagers who get 15k a day with votes), thus the wolves actually would want to end the game on day 5 while they still have an edge... or scenerio #2 is they started with more money but not enough to be at an advantage. if that is the case, most of their moves have to be ones that maximize their cash intake, otherwise they've lost the game already.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, looking at the voting chart if you believe that wolves are going to put votes on the leaders, and that they are going to be incented to put votes up there, then what are your relative thoughts on the people who voted for me and Jackal?

Jackal and I voted for each other
You voted for me
That leaves Tyrith (who you have already discussed), MrW, Schmidty, Chief Rum, and Clap.

Or do you think looking at the alternate selections is better? That leaves DT, SnDvls, and Pass.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, the Wiretapper gets a % of the bids on the day that we bid for the Wiretapper? It lists Days 4 and 5 (and today is, duh, Day 4) under the description.

Correct. The wiretapper gets a refund of sorts.

[hoopsguy]

The problem is that you are guessing who people trusted the most on Night 0. You are an example of someone who didn't bother to change their beneficiary - there are probably others out there.

I may or may not trust my beneficiary, but I haven't been moved to change it a second time quite yet.

[Alan T]

Alan, looking at the voting chart if you believe that wolves are going to put votes on the leaders, and that they are going to be incented to put votes up there, then what are your relative thoughts on the people who voted for me and Jackal?

Jackal and I voted for each other
You voted for me
That leaves Tyrith (who you have already discussed), MrW, Schmidty, Chief Rum, and Clap.

Or do you think looking at the alternate selections is better? That leaves DT, SnDvls, and Pass.


Well I've commented with Schmidty that he is pretty much playing the game he normally does. I'm not really looking too hard at him. Chief Rum I already expressed a bit of a poor feeling about whereas I feel probably the opposite about Mr.W I don't really trust him, but he has said things in a way that doesn't come across to me as having some agenda at least. I'm willing to leave him alone if my intention is to try to catch a wolf today. Of the people who voted for you, Chief Rum and Claphasma are the two that ping my radar a bit. I haven't played much with Claphasma, I think last game was my first. So its hard for me to get a feel if he normally is spacey or its somehting new in this game. My initial impression of him is that he has been hopping around with what popular opinon is and hasn't had much original thought himself.

In the other group, I've talked enough about Pass probably, and I'm thinking if he is a wolf I feel better about Sndvls. Other than defending himself Sndvls hasn't really said alot this game, but he usually plays fairly quiet through the first half of games anyways. DT is odd though, his vote yesterday on Chief Rum seemed weirdly timed, but other than that the only thing I can recall him doing or saying this game is attack me last night because I had to leave for work..

[Alan T]

The problem is that you are guessing who people trusted the most on Night 0. You are an example of someone who didn't bother to change their beneficiary - there are probably others out there.

I may or may not trust my beneficiary, but I haven't been moved to change it a second time quite yet.


Well other than that idea, the only other idea I would have about the people who have been killed are all people whom have played for quite some time. And in that case it would turn the spotlight to you and myself (both of whom I know are good), Chief Rum and Passacaglia (both of whom I feel uneasy about), or Mr.W and Sndvls off the top of my head.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, was your money in the bank or on hand each night?

[Alan T]

Well other than that idea, the only other idea I would have about the people who have been killed are all people whom have played for quite some time. And in that case it would turn the spotlight to you and myself (both of whom I know are good), Chief Rum and Passacaglia (both of whom I feel uneasy about), or Mr.W and Sndvls off the top of my head.


I guess Schmidty should be added to this list too. I think he's played for longer than I have so thats been quite a while :)

If you were to go down this avenue, I guess it would be interesting to see which of the people on this list also pushed for others on this list (not necessarily ones that are dead) to try to lynch during the day time as well.

[claphamsa]

I haven't played much with Claphasma, I think last game was my first. So its hard for me to get a feel if he normally is spacey or its somehting new in this game. My initial impression of him is that he has been hopping around with what popular opinon is and hasn't had much original thought himself.




wow, one game and you completely nail m personality :(

[Alan T]

Alan, was your money in the bank or on hand each night?

Up until now i've had my money on hand each night. I wasn't (and actually still am not) sure if you can use your money in the bank to bid on things. My objective each day has been to try to bid a large amount on the more important services.. thus if I got killed at night, it would leave very little for the wolves anyhows. That backfired on day 1 as I whiffed on the bid, but other than that I haven't had a ton of money any given night to worry about.

That may or may not change starting tonight however.

[hoopsguy]

Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?

Obviously, having money in the bank and having it confirmed by others would build a stronger case for you. I wish that you had given this answer as I would feel a whole lot better moving along in this direction if you had some 3rd party vouching on your financials (not the lack of them, as the case is that you are presenting).

[Alan T]

Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?

Obviously, having money in the bank and having it confirmed by others would build a stronger case for you. I wish that you had given this answer as I would feel a whole lot better moving along in this direction if you had some 3rd party vouching on your financials (not the lack of them, as the case is that you are presenting).


Well.. unfortunatly I didnt really build my money strategy based on trying to "prove" myself. I hadn't intended to even reveal today and was waiting till tommorrow anyways. So you caught me a bit off guard.

[hoopsguy]

Understood, but I'm a little surprised that you didn't understand cash on hand vs money. I get the "you are too detail-oriented a player to make that mistake" thrown at me from time to time, and it isn't a fun one to respond to. So I won't belabor that point after having just made it.

We've had two players who have had the service, hopefully one of them can confirm your empty bank account status.

[hoopsguy]

er, cash on hand vs cash in bank.

[Passacaglia]

Wow, this discussion really detoured while I was out to lunch. Hoops, your level of suspicion in me started today pretty high, then went down, and is now back up? Does that mean I missed my chance to talk about my thoughts today free of your suspicion?

To respond to why I sat back and let it remain a tie (even though you asked Alan, not me) -- I didn't think it was worth wasting 10K to vote either way. I didn't have much of a read on either hoops or The Jackal at that point to say either way. Plus, I wasn't as immersed in the thread as I usually am -- that happens to me in the evenings. Also, I had no intention of pulling deadline shenanigans -- doing that would make it so that we'd bankrupt someone without letting them have a chance to transfer their money. While the tie was good in that we didn't lose money, what we DON'T want is a late lead-change.

[Passacaglia]

I'm going to read what happened in the last couple hours before deadline (which I hate doing -- I feel like I already skimmed it, so I know what happened, but have to read it again -- it's like checking my work on a test). Then I'll catch up on what happened during lunch.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.

However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan.

[Alan T]

Understood, but I'm a little surprised that you didn't understand cash on hand vs money. I get the "you are too detail-oriented a player to make that mistake" thrown at me from time to time, and it isn't a fun one to respond to. So I won't belabor that point after having just made it.

We've had two players who have had the service, hopefully one of them can confirm your empty bank account status.


I guess you could clarify my stance on that was more indifference than lack of understanding from trying. Like I said, I didn't expect to really have much cash day to day anyways so didn't figure it a big deal. I'm pretty sure that if I was actually a wolf I would have made sure to do my due dilligence in having all my dollars and cents show up in places to try to back up any story I came up with.

To be honest, I don't think any of what I have said in response to your questions really should clear or condemn me. I'm pretty sure that wolves probably have some ability to hide their money in CDs or pass it around to keep from looking suspicious. I'm more answering your questions rather than attacking back because.. well I guess I deserve it after yesterday.

[SnDvls]

If you lynch me, $70k (my money in the bank) will go from me (who I know to not be a cutthroat) to one or more others whose status I don't know. On top of that, the rest of my money which is in CDs (and I don't remember exactly how much that is) is going to be lost, and that's at least $20k.



Actually all of your money will be lost if we lynch you.

It will only be passed out if you actually pass it out in thread to others.

[hoopsguy]

Well, if you know that I'm a good guy from a scan there probably isn't a reason to attack back.

Barkeep, can you give a little clarification on the assets viewed by the Friend of the Bank? Does it represent money in bank account + CD? Strictly bank account?

[Alan T]

Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.

However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan.

Well.. all I can say is do what you think is best, but please try to do it in the next hour or 90 minutes so I have time to move the little cash I have over to you. Even if you're coming after me, you're the only one I trust really to send the cash to. I'll be on the road for springfield after that and won't be able to do much.

I would rather stay around though another day to get another seer read in, and perhaps someone could then use the lawyer service and verify that part of my story if that is the reason you have doubts.

[Alan T]

Well, if you know that I'm a good guy from a scan there probably isn't a reason to attack back.

Barkeep, can you give a little clarification on the assets viewed by the Friend of the Bank? Does it represent money in bank account + CD? Strictly bank account?


I guess I worded that poorly. You understand what I am saying though I assume and are just ribbing me. I figure its only fair that since yesterday I grilled you when I suspected you being bad that you have the opportunity to today.

[Tyrith]

Well....now I'm just confused.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, it really isn't about giving you the business today as some kind of payback. It is trying to make a good decision. Just like I'm sure you were doing yesterday with me if you were/are Rich.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if you really have the seer role and there isn't a bodyguard to protect you then why would they leave you around for another day?

I don't want to accelerate the process of removing you from the game without just cause, but I would have to work hard to come up with a scenario where we are talking on Day 5 about the results of your Night 4 scan.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.

However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan.

Why aren't you looking at Mr. Wednesday?

[hoopsguy]

My worst-case scenario at the moment is that Cutthroat Alan actually did win the "avoid bankrupcy" prize on Day 1 and we are going to need two days to use it. He would make sense in this role on a wolf team if he did in fact start on their side. So that is why I think that our decision today is especially important - if we are going to need two days to remove him I would prefer to start today.

And this is where it would have been especially useful if Alan had kept money in the bank instead of on hand. Because we could have verified that he had money on Night 1. It wouldn't be absolute proof he was Rich, but it would have been a compelling piece of evidence for me.

[Tyrith]

I'm not going to lie, I'm probably going to play follow the leader with hoops today. Although my gut tells me that will involve going for Pass, and if I wind up voting for him I'll go into my own reasoning a little more.

[Alan T]

Alan, if you really have the seer role and there isn't a bodyguard to protect you then why would they leave you around for another day?

I don't want to accelerate the process of removing you from the game without just cause, but I would have to work hard to come up with a scenario where we are talking on Day 5 about the results of your Night 4 scan.


You are probably right, as I said earlier I will be suprised if they don't kill me tonight. If I am around tommorrow, I would be pretty skeptical as well.

[hoopsguy]

Why aren't you looking at Mr. Wednesday?

Because my thought process is that he was much more likely to be a convert than an original wolf. What incentive would he have had this morning at 3AM to announce he had won the Thief if he was a Cutthroat?

If he was converted last night, that sucks but we don't get the same value in terms of voting records from a convert as we do from an original Cutthroat.

[Tyrith]

My worst-case scenario at the moment is that Cutthroat Alan actually did win the "avoid bankrupcy" prize on Day 1 and we are going to need two days to use it. He would make sense in this role on a wolf team if he did in fact start on their side. So that is why I think that our decision today is especially important - if we are going to need two days to remove him I would prefer to start today.

And this is where it would have been especially useful if Alan had kept money in the bank instead of on hand. Because we could have verified that he had money on Night 1. It wouldn't be absolute proof he was Rich, but it would have been a compelling piece of evidence for me.

If we need two days to kill him why would we? He won't have any money left when it happens. Especially if we tried to vote him out once and it bounced, the second time doesn't matter -- we'll already be able to get all the info we need from the first time.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

[Alan T]

My worst-case scenario at the moment is that Cutthroat Alan actually did win the "avoid bankrupcy" prize on Day 1 and we are going to need two days to use it. He would make sense in this role on a wolf team if he did in fact start on their side. So that is why I think that our decision today is especially important - if we are going to need two days to remove him I would prefer to start today.

And this is where it would have been especially useful if Alan had kept money in the bank instead of on hand. Because we could have verified that he had money on Night 1. It wouldn't be absolute proof he was Rich, but it would have been a compelling piece of evidence for me.

Lets go with your worst case scenerio a bit further. If I actually was a wolf, and I was up for a lynch and was lying about everything, why wouldn't I just pass along stuff behind the scenes before I got lynched? Why would I have said anything at all trying to get heat off of you when no one was even looking my way in suspicion?

The reason there aren't any good answers to these questions is simply because they do not apply here. My only way to move money if I get bankrupted is by passing it in thread before I get lynched. The reason I came out this morning trying to stir conversation a different direction is because I felt it was in the best interest for the villagers to go in a different direction today. Sometimes as a wolf, the best decision is to sit back and let others do your dirty work for you.

[Tyrith]

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

My bid pattern-
1 - failed seer bid
2 - failed bodyguard bid
3 - failed bodyguard bid

[hoopsguy]

If we need two days to kill him why would we? He won't have any money left when it happens. Especially if we tried to vote him out once and it bounced, the second time doesn't matter -- we'll already be able to get all the info we need from the first time.

Because every day that he is around he accumulates another 15K for them. If they actually have to submit a declared night-kill person he can take on those options, reducing their risk.

You have a good point that we will learn everything we need to know about him if he lives through Bankrupcy. But the reasons in the above paragraph demonstrate the risk with letting him stick around.

[hoopsguy]

My bid pattern-
1 - failed seer bid
2 - failed bodyguard bid
3 - failed bodyguard bid

Cool, although such a detailed answer gives the bad guys a really good idea of how much money you have. Which is why I framed the question as narrowly as I did.

[Tyrith]

Cool, although such a detailed answer gives the bad guys a really good idea of how much money you have. Which is why I framed the question as narrowly as I did.

Why wouldn't I have a ton of money anyway? The bodyguards weren't even that expensive, anyway.

[Tyrith]

Dola, I actually failed a seer bid on day 2.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.

However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan.

The annoying thing about this is that looking back at everything, I believe Alan.

[Passacaglia]

Because my thought process is that he was much more likely to be a convert than an original wolf. What incentive would he have had this morning at 3AM to announce he had won the Thief if he was a Cutthroat?

If he was converted last night, that sucks but we don't get the same value in terms of voting records from a convert as we do from an original Cutthroat.

What I'm more worried about is that he'll be converted tonight, and the wolves will have the thief's ability. Even if Mr. Wednesday is good, and is able to use this to our advantage, he'll be converted tonight.

[hoopsguy]

Well, potentially you could have won a service that would suggest that you have less money than the average bear at this point in the game.

If winning a bid didn't provide some kind of in-game advantage, then there isn't a need to reveal it.

For example, we have assumed all game that the Cutthroats won the "avoid bankrupcy". What if another member of the Rich won that? They wouldn't have any advantage to making that reveal.

By giving specific info on "failed bid" for all three days you give the opposition more details than they need to know. Is it a big deal? Probably not at this stage, but maybe as end game approaches it could be. Anyway, what is done is done and I just wanted to caution the next couple of people answering questions.

[claphamsa]

didnt even bid............
SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

[hoopsguy]

What I'm more worried about is that he'll be converted tonight, and the wolves will have the thief's ability. Even if Mr. Wednesday is good, and is able to use this to our advantage, he'll be converted tonight.

Which they would have to use the following night, so we could return to this tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?

Obviously, having money in the bank and having it confirmed by others would build a stronger case for you. I wish that you had given this answer as I would feel a whole lot better moving along in this direction if you had some 3rd party vouching on your financials (not the lack of them, as the case is that you are presenting).

The problem with relying too much on the friend of the bank is that he can only really be used to tell the truth about people who say that they have purchased things -- if someone claims not to have purchased anything, there's no way the FOB can tell if that's true or not.

[Passacaglia]

Which they would have to use the following night, so we could return to this tomorrow.

Why wouldn't they just convert him tonight?

[Passacaglia]

Scratch that, I see what you're saying.

[Passacaglia]

A more appropriate response is:

How are we going to know if he was converted tomorrow? And, what if Wednesday uses the thief tonight and also gets converted?

[Tyrith]

Well, potentially you could have won a service that would suggest that you have less money than the average bear at this point in the game.

If winning a bid didn't provide some kind of in-game advantage, then there isn't a need to reveal it.

For example, we have assumed all game that the Cutthroats won the "avoid bankrupcy". What if another member of the Rich won that? They wouldn't have any advantage to making that reveal.

By giving specific info on "failed bid" for all three days you give the opposition more details than they need to know. Is it a big deal? Probably not at this stage, but maybe as end game approaches it could be. Anyway, what is done is done and I just wanted to caution the next couple of people answering questions.

And I could always be lying, even as a good guy :)

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, can you give a little clarification on the assets viewed by the Friend of the Bank? Does it represent money in bank account + CD? Strictly bank account?
The Friend only finds out the bank account status of a person at the end of the day, no information on money in CDs.

[hoopsguy]

The problem with relying too much on the friend of the bank is that he can only really be used to tell the truth about people who say that they have purchased things -- if someone claims not to have purchased anything, there's no way the FOB can tell if that's true or not.

More specifically, it can be used to verify someone's claims about money in the bank. Which can be correlated to purchases, or not.

In Alan's case, the person with FOB should be able to suggest that he did not have any money in the bank on either Night 1 or Night 2 (depending on who comes forward).

Which would be disappointing for the wolves, with their remove the vet strategy, leaving a guy with 30K alone on Night 1.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, the Thief is a one-time thing. It gets to take money from either bank or on-hand, not both.

I'm much more worried about getting Cutthoats than worried about the Thief turning the game on us.

[Alan T]

More specifically, it can be used to verify someone's claims about money in the bank. Which can be correlated to purchases, or not.

In Alan's case, the person with FOB should be able to suggest that he did not have any money in the bank on either Night 1 or Night 2 (depending on who comes forward).

Which would be disappointing for the wolves, with their remove the vet strategy, leaving a guy with 30K alone on Night 1.

I had the same exact fear on night 1. If you look at the bluff I made that night going into the next morning hoping that it would be thought that I wasn't a very good target. Like I said I've been rather loose with protecting my money alot of this game with the idea that if I didn't have much of it, it wouldn't be a huge loss.

[Alan T]

Dola, This is what I am referring to. At the time I realized I had 45k on me and was probably a pretty juicy target, so I gave a bit of a line here to try to push attention elsewhere that night:

I don't want to talk much about what I did or didn't do with my bid while it is night time. I would rather leave less information for the wolves to go on for their night target. I'll give my thoughts tommorrow morning.


Then in the morning I came out and explained what my bid was.

[hoopsguy]

Lets go with your worst case scenerio a bit further. If I actually was a wolf, and I was up for a lynch and was lying about everything, why wouldn't I just pass along stuff behind the scenes before I got lynched? Why would I have said anything at all trying to get heat off of you when no one was even looking my way in suspicion?

The reason there aren't any good answers to these questions is simply because they do not apply here. My only way to move money if I get bankrupted is by passing it in thread before I get lynched. The reason I came out this morning trying to stir conversation a different direction is because I felt it was in the best interest for the villagers to go in a different direction today. Sometimes as a wolf, the best decision is to sit back and let others do your dirty work for you.

Somehow missed this post earlier and there are a few things to respond to:
- if you are a wolf, and you still have assets, you will move them behind the scenes today if you are up for a lynch
- taking the heat off me was a one-day move, based on orchestrating the idea that I needed to be scanned last night. You could return to putting pressure on me as a convert the following day
- neither you or I get much of a pass if we let other people talk and sit back without saying much

That said, I admit that my notion of you as the cunning bad guy requires that I overlook some aspects of your play throughout the game. I basically have two things that I need to accept about your play so far:
1.) that you didn't name a second beneficiary after Swaggs died, so that the money adds up
2.) that you didn't have your money in the bank, which would allow us to validate your money trail

If I buy those two points, then everything adds up.

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

correct

[hoopsguy]

Pass, can I get a response from you on Post #958?

SnDvls, Tyrith, Pass, Clap - none of you guys submitted the winning bid for Friend of the Bank during the first two days of the game? I'm hoping that each of you will respond to this.

[Alan T]

Somehow missed this post earlier and there are a few things to respond to:
- if you are a wolf, and you still have assets, you will move them behind the scenes today if you are up for a lynch
- taking the heat off me was a one-day move, based on orchestrating the idea that I needed to be scanned last night. You could return to putting pressure on me as a convert the following day
- neither you or I get much of a pass if we let other people talk and sit back without saying much

That said, I admit that my notion of you as the cunning bad guy requires that I overlook some aspects of your play throughout the game. I basically have two things that I need to accept about your play so far:
1.) that you didn't name a second beneficiary after Swaggs died, so that the money adds up
2.) that you didn't have your money in the bank, which would allow us to validate your money trail

If I buy those two points, then everything adds up.


One comment about the pushing for the convert tommorrow.. if I did that I am pretty sure that many people would call my hypocritical for that. I have been very outspoken about not trying to hunt through a batch of cleared people looking for a convert when original wolves exist in a much smaller pool to look from.

I believe fully in that, and understand that at any time I or you or anyone may be converted, but if we have a somewhat small CoT going, why destroy it when you know for a fact there are original wolves still remaining in a much smaller group of people to look through. I always have said worry about a convert after you have made some ground on removing the original wolves.

[Passacaglia]

Somehow missed this post earlier and there are a few things to respond to:
- if you are a wolf, and you still have assets, you will move them behind the scenes today if you are up for a lynch
- taking the heat off me was a one-day move, based on orchestrating the idea that I needed to be scanned last night. You could return to putting pressure on me as a convert the following day
- neither you or I get much of a pass if we let other people talk and sit back without saying much

That said, I admit that my notion of you as the cunning bad guy requires that I overlook some aspects of your play throughout the game. I basically have two things that I need to accept about your play so far:
1.) that you didn't name a second beneficiary after Swaggs died, so that the money adds up
2.) that you didn't have your money in the bank, which would allow us to validate your money trail

If I buy those two points, then everything adds up.

I agree with point 1 being important, but I find point 2 to be confusing. If he didn't have any money in the bank, wouldn't that suggest that he did receive the government insider? If he did have money in the bank, then we would know he didn't win the bid. Anyway, I think whether or not he purchased it doesn't really matter -- I could see both good guys and bad guys wanting it.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, can I get a response from you on Post #958?

I'd rather not.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, then I'm left to assume that you did get the service at one point in the game. And that Alan's story doesn't clearly have an issue based on what you see from the bank info. What I don't understand is why you wouldn't come out and say this, given the relatively low value of the service.

If someone is coming to kill/bribe you it will be by virtue of your new inheritance, not because you spent a small amount on this service. What is the value on keeping it close to the vest and not sharing the info with the rest of the group at this point? You would either die with the info or be turned to the other side - either way the info is lost for the remainder of the Rich, who might have been able to help you discern value from the numbers.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm on board with not voting for you today. Do you still think Passacaglia is the best option for today?

[Passacaglia]

Pass, then I'm left to assume that you did get the service at one point in the game. And that Alan's story doesn't clearly have an issue based on what you see from the bank info. What I don't understand is why you wouldn't come out and say this, given the relatively low value of the service.

If someone is coming to kill/bribe you it will be by virtue of your new inheritance, not because you spent a small amount on this service. What is the value on keeping it close to the vest and not sharing the info with the rest of the group at this point? You would either die with the info or be turned to the other side - either way the info is lost for the remainder of the Rich, who might have been able to help you discern value from the numbers.

hoops, if you will look back at my discussions of the friend of the bank, I don't think I've ever said that the winner of his services should fear for his life. I don't know where you're getting that from.

[Alan T]

Alan, I'm on board with not voting for you today. Do you still think Passacaglia is the best option for today?

I feel like I'm the only one that has done most of the talking today. :) So, I don't know that my opinions of others have changed dramatically. If Pass does know the bank records then he knows I haven't been lying so I'm not sure why he hasn't vouched for my story.

Only two reasons are 1) he is not on our side and thus a vote for him is a good idea or 2) He is on our side, but doesn't know for sure that I am on his side based only on not having money in the bank and doesn't want to end up vouching for me an unknown to him only to possibly condemn himself to death.

A few people have commented on it being either Pass or myself today (including you), so either he is a wolf or self preservating is kicking in. My vote is already on him though, and I don't see any reason to look elsewhere today. He's still on my short list of people I think is a good lynch choice today.

[hoopsguy]

I'm trying to understand the value of secrecy with information that could be used to help make an important decsion today.

From there, I was trying to guess why someone would be concerned, as a member of the Rich, with volunteering information for a very specific case that could prove guilt/innocence.

However, the fact that you are not challenging Alan on this is good enough for me right now. The fact that you are not answering the question means that I can't use it as a Lawyer question at a later point in the game.

[Passacaglia]

I feel like I'm the only one that has done most of the talking today. :) So, I don't know that my opinions of others have changed dramatically. If Pass does know the bank records then he knows I haven't been lying so I'm not sure why he hasn't vouched for my story.

Only two reasons are 1) he is not on our side and thus a vote for him is a good idea or 2) He is on our side, but doesn't know for sure that I am on his side based only on not having money in the bank and doesn't want to end up vouching for me an unknown to him only to possibly condemn himself to death.

A few people have commented on it being either Pass or myself today (including you), so either he is a wolf or self preservating is kicking in. My vote is already on him though, and I don't see any reason to look elsewhere today. He's still on my short list of people I think is a good lynch choice today.

Why would I vouch for your story, knowing that the most influential person in the game is saying he'll vote for either you or me?

[Passacaglia]

I'm trying to understand the value of secrecy with information that could be used to help make an important decsion today.

From there, I was trying to guess why someone would be concerned, as a member of the Rich, with volunteering information for a very specific case that could prove guilt/innocence.

However, the fact that you are not challenging Alan on this is good enough for me right now. The fact that you are not answering the question means that I can't use it as a Lawyer question at a later point in the game.

What does learning my beneficiary have to do with anything?

[hoopsguy]

Because your vouching for the story might help me think you are both good, rather than the fact that you are looking to self-preserve here.

Because continuing to dance around the issue makes me think that you are worried about the "a-ha, only a wolf would pay to see the money!"

MrW, if/when you arrive and read this maybe you can help me with a question here. When you got Saldana's money, how much of it was in CDs versus a bank account transfer?

[hoopsguy]

What does learning my beneficiary have to do with anything?

I don't understand, from the above quote you listed, where I asked about your beneficiary.

I think the closest that I've come to talking about beneficiaries and you was saying that if you are Rich and the wolves come calling for you it will be by virtue of inheriting money more than fear about seeing 2-3 day old information on bank assets.

[Passacaglia]

I don't understand, from the above quote you listed, where I asked about your beneficiary.

I think the closest that I've come to talking about beneficiaries and you was saying that if you are Rich and the wolves come calling for you it will be by virtue of inheriting money more than fear about seeing 2-3 day old information on bank assets.

You said something about using the lawyer on me. The rules say that he learns someone's beneficary. :confused:

[hoopsguy]

Pass, the only reason I haven't voted for you yet is that I think it has the chance to turn into a landslide if I'm wrong. People will use the "I followed the guy with trust" argument, and it will be apparent late in the day when you are way ahead in the vote that we might want to re-think this. Which would be expensive, or we would have to write you off. Clearly neither of those scenarios is something I want to see if you are in fact a member of the Rich group.

So I'm trying to give you every opportunity to talk about the game, but you are dancing around this FOB thing for no good reason that I can determine. You are obsessing over a one-time role in the Thief, which I don't understand. And you seem to have completely dropped your concerns from yesterday around Tyrith and SnDvls, even after I stated earlier that I thought your arguments around the vote yesterday were more coherent than I initially thought. None of these things are making me feel all that good about our conversation today.

[Passacaglia]

Because your vouching for the story might help me think you are both good, rather than the fact that you are looking to self-preserve here.

Because continuing to dance around the issue makes me think that you are worried about the "a-ha, only a wolf would pay to see the money!"

MrW, if/when you arrive and read this maybe you can help me with a question here. When you got Saldana's money, how much of it was in CDs versus a bank account transfer?

I've dropped enough hints about it, hopefully in a way that the wolves might not have figured it out, and you've made the appropriate assumption. Why press it further?

Anyway, I don't even know what I'm supposed to say at this point. What else do you want to know? If you and Alan both end up wolves, I am going to...well, I don't know what I'm going to do!

[Tyrith]

Screw it. Pass is dancing, I agree with hoops, but I also don't want to get caught up in the follow the trusted guy pattern like hoops is talking about.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[hoopsguy]

Strike what I said on the Lawyer - I somehow had signals crossed on that role. Sorry for any confusion around that.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, the only reason I haven't voted for you yet is that I think it has the chance to turn into a landslide if I'm wrong. People will use the "I followed the guy with trust" argument, and it will be apparent late in the day when you are way ahead in the vote that we might want to re-think this. Which would be expensive, or we would have to write you off. Clearly neither of those scenarios is something I want to see if you are in fact a member of the Rich group.

So I'm trying to give you every opportunity to talk about the game, but you are dancing around this FOB thing for no good reason that I can determine. You are obsessing over a one-time role in the Thief, which I don't understand. And you seem to have completely dropped your concerns from yesterday around Tyrith and SnDvls, even after I stated earlier that I thought your arguments around the vote yesterday were more coherent than I initially thought. None of these things are making me feel all that good about our conversation today.

I'm still on them (more Tyrith than SD), but I think my worry about the Thief is valid -- but obviously we're reading this game in much different ways. And for the record, you didn't say that my arguments were more coherent -- just that I wasn't voting for the hot guy. I guess I'm not the only one who misses clues! :p