WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[hoopsguy]

Pass, you believe Alan which means that you believe me. So where do you think we go today if we want to catch a wolf?

[Tyrith]

Pass, if hoops and alan are both bad we just lose. Not having seer scans will have pretty well wrecked us if that's the case. But hoops had every chance to get a kill yesterday, which would have cost us villagers a hundred thousand bucks. I'm highly inclined to trust him at this point. If they screwed us yesterday it was a masterful play, and sometimes you just get outplayed by good players.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, you believe Alan which means that you believe me. So where do you think we go today if we want to catch a wolf?

Sorry I hadn't mentioned it much today -- but I thought everyone just knew that the guy on top of my wolf list was Tyrith.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I'm loathe to punish MrW for buying a dangerous role as a good guy, and being forthcoming about it, on the chance that he may have been converted. I also don't think it does nearly as much damage to us now as it does later in the game, when there are fewer players and a swing in assets is magnified.
I

[hoopsguy]

Sorry I hadn't mentioned it much today -- but I thought everyone just knew that the guy on top of my wolf list was Tyrith.

By virtue of saving SnDvls yesterday, or voting for you 2nd today?

[Passacaglia]

Pass, I'm loathe to punish MrW for buying a dangerous role as a good guy, and being forthcoming about it, on the chance that he may have been converted. I also don't think it does nearly as much damage to us now as it does later in the game, when there are fewer players and a swing in assets is magnified.
I

I can understand that, and I'll admit that thinking about the fact that it's just what's in the bank or on hand is not a big deal. I still maintain that the wolves have more interest in him than we do, based on the fact that he can steal their money, which could be large -- and the thief will know to look in what they have on hand, since the wolves won't want to leave too much in the bank, lest the FOB should see it.

[Alan T]

Its time for me to run. Good luck with the lynch today, not sure when I will get home, have to drive to springfield to pick up my daughters and back.

[Passacaglia]

By virtue of saving SnDvls yesterday, or voting for you 2nd today?

Saving SnDvls, and getting defensive about my ideas on the thief. I'm not sure what to make of the 2nd vote on me, but it doesn't seem like it raises him in my eyes.

[DaddyTorgo]

If we need two days to kill him why would we? He won't have any money left when it happens. Especially if we tried to vote him out once and it bounced, the second time doesn't matter -- we'll already be able to get all the info we need from the first time.

i guess the thinking would be "to try to remove one person whom they can pass money to"

but they're always going to be able to maintain their $$ unless someone can't get online to transfer it.

i'm with tyrith on this one surprisingly. i don't see going after alan tonight as the best play.

Mr. W, did you respond to my suggestion of you burning the thief tonight to steal $1 from me?

If you are not in-favor of that plan, that I would urge everyone to vote for you, as we can't have you converted and with the thief i believe.

[DaddyTorgo]

there's a lot of interplay here between alan/hoops/pass going on, like it's swirling like a tornado or something. and then pass fingers tyrith.

it's...interesting. at least giving us something to work on.

i take back what i said about urging people to vote for Weds...i thought i was caught up at that point but i was a page behind

[hoopsguy]

DT, I think I can get behind a "bury the thief" option as well, although the call truly rests with the player with the ability. But the fact that he is drawing heat in multiple directions from people about this power - even when he has been up-front about it - should demonstrate that there concern (and maybe votes) will follow until it is used up.

I would also suggest that we consider someone other than DT, who came up with the plan, as a person to take part as the "robbed" party to avoid concerns with collusion.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, what is your take on what we've seen today with Alan/me/Pass? Do you have strong thoughts on any other directions for the vote today?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Actually all of your money will be lost if we lynch you.

It will only be passed out if you actually pass it out in thread to others.

I was making a direct reference to the likelihood that I would disburse my liquid monies if a bankruptcy were an inevitability. Mind you, I've got enough liquidity that I'm not sure it would be an inevitability.

[DaddyTorgo]

Pass, if hoops and alan are both bad we just lose. Not having seer scans will have pretty well wrecked us if that's the case. But hoops had every chance to get a kill yesterday, which would have cost us villagers a hundred thousand bucks. I'm highly inclined to trust him at this point. If they screwed us yesterday it was a masterful play, and sometimes you just get outplayed by good players.

this is an interesting post. by the end of the game it may prove to be highly ironic.

FWIW if i'm a wolf i think i go after hoops + alan real early as converts, b/c of their perceived "status." although we know they are both trusted, or at least they trust each other.

whether they trust each other and are both good now, or whether they trust each other and they're both bad (along with Tyrith) and this is some sort of "let's lay the plan out there in disguise since we are so well in control" type of thing so that they can point at it and laugh while we chase our tails, I'm not sure.

[DaddyTorgo]

DT, I think I can get behind a "bury the thief" option as well, although the call truly rests with the player with the ability. But the fact that he is drawing heat in multiple directions from people about this power - even when he has been up-front about it - should demonstrate that there concern (and maybe votes) will follow until it is used up.

I would also suggest that we consider someone other than DT, who came up with the plan, as a person to take part as the "robbed" party to avoid concerns with collusion.

fine by me. i'm all about winning the game for the regular rich folks, at least at this point.

[hoopsguy]

Heh, I wish I was nearly as diabolical as the schemes people think up for me sometimes.

I'm going to trust Alan for a day. We clearly haven't trusted each other all game long.

[DaddyTorgo]

Heh, I wish I was nearly as diabolical as the schemes people think up for me sometimes.

I'm going to trust Alan for a day. We clearly haven't trusted each other all game long.

it'd be awesome if you were! :D

[Mr. Wednesday]

Cool, although such a detailed answer gives the bad guys a really good idea of how much money you have. Which is why I framed the question as narrowly as I did.

Unlike us, the bad guys know exactly where the service bids fell, so they can work out the exact amount of money on either side of the game. The utility of knowing the finances of a specific player are somewhat limited; it's nice to know of someone with more money, because then there's more chance of being able to trigger inheritance to a cutthroat, but they already know who the main such players are.

[claphamsa]

who has put down votes already?

[DaddyTorgo]

i have not voted and will not do so until after 7pm i'd say it's safe to assume.

[Passacaglia]

I'm about to. I'm leaving in 30 minutes, and will probably put in a vite in 15 minutes.

I can't believe I mistyped it as vite, so I'm leaving it in!

[claphamsa]

wait? ur the bride? :P

[Passacaglia]

Well, I'll put the vote in now, and see if it gets some discussion going before I go.

VOTE TYRITH

[Mr. Wednesday]

MrW, if/when you arrive and read this maybe you can help me with a question here. When you got Saldana's money, how much of it was in CDs versus a bank account transfer?

Doing a bunch of math, I've determined that I got the proceeds from a $10k, 2-day CD last night, with the balance to my bank account initially as part of the inheritance.

I received $50,612 then. I'm not entirely sure how that adds up.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If I may follow up... Saldana was killed on night 2. There would have been the non-invested $20k, plus $15k for one vote... and it looks like I pocked the other $15k as well. Maybe the cutthroats aren't getting the salary we get for voting if it gets moved into the bank immediately.

[hoopsguy]

I think that makes the vote 2-1-1 Pass over Tyrith and me.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, the "non-invested $20k" looks like it also includes proceeds from a one-day CD.

[hoopsguy]

If I may follow up... Saldana was killed on night 2. There would have been the non-invested $20k, plus $15k for one vote... and it looks like I pocked the other $15k as well. Maybe the cutthroats aren't getting the salary we get for voting if it gets moved into the bank immediately.

That is consistent with what I received from Lathum - I picked up 37,500 (prior to his CD maturing, then it was a bit more).

I was curious if a peek at bank money by the bad guys on Night 1 showed that Saldana didn't have money in the bank and that would make him more likely to have money on his person when they bumped him off Night 2. But it doesn't sound like this is the case, since he had 20K "non-invested", unless he moved it between N1 and N2 prior to dying.

This point potential supports (Pass = Rich) a little bit, although it would more if I knew what day he had the FOB.

[Passacaglia]

If I may follow up... Saldana was killed on night 2. There would have been the non-invested $20k, plus $15k for one vote... and it looks like I pocked the other $15k as well. Maybe the cutthroats aren't getting the salary we get for voting if it gets moved into the bank immediately.

I'm not sure about that -- I got 10K from path, and the rest was in a CD. If the 15K was in the bank, I should have received at least that much not in a CD, right? If sal was killed one night 2, could that 15K be from his Day 1 vote?

[hoopsguy]

Double dola, the "non-invested $20k" looks like it also includes proceeds from a one-day CD.

Strike what I said about supporting Pass, as a peek on N1 would have shown 30K invested in CDs and no money in the bank. So that hurts his case a little bit.

[Passacaglia]

I had it Day 1 and Day 2, hoops. Day 3 I forgot to bid.

[Tyrith]

I think that makes the vote 2-1-1 Pass over Tyrith and me.

Pretty sure that's right.

[Passacaglia]

All right, I'm out -- I doubt I will make it back by deadline.

[hoopsguy]

I had it Day 1 and Day 2, hoops. Day 3 I forgot to bid.

Without getting into any discussion on the actual amounts, did you see anything strange in terms of deviation from day to day?

Drilling down into two more specific instances, did you see anything around Tyrith and/or SnDvls, who drew some attention from you as of late?

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, what is your take on what we've seen today with Alan/me/Pass? Do you have strong thoughts on any other directions for the vote today?

Sorry been signed in, but not reading it all

I'll comment once I catch up

[Mr. Wednesday]

Regarding what to do with the thief... if there is a strong consensus that the best thing to do with him is burn him tonight, then I am willing to do so.

Pro:
* Removes a dangerous ability that the cutthroats might wish to use to rip a large sum out of the bank, where presumably most of us have been keeping it to avoid having it be taken if we're killed

Con:
* Removes a potentially useful ability that we might wish to use to steal cutthroat money to set up winning the game. We are unlikely to have another clear shot at taking their money, and if they get ahead of us, it turns into a conventional game of werewolf; the only real question right now is who's ahead.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If sal was killed one night 2, could that 15K be from his Day 1 vote?

I'm already accounting for the day 1 vote. There's an extra 15k that could only be from the day 2 vote.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, I'm OK for now with letting you make whatever you think is a good decision on this. But I think that you run the risk of attracting more and more attention as days go by without using this power. Both in terms of likelihood of getting bribed and voters who are anxious about you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

And I should warn you all now, I'm going to a hockey game in about ten minutes, and will probably not make it back home before deadline. So if anything develops in the way of votes on me, I will likely not have the opportunity to defend myself nor shift my money to someone else. For today, that would be very bad for the good side. (though it may make sense to do tomorrow... who knows what the wolves will be up to tonight?)

[Mr. Wednesday]

MrW, I'm OK for now with letting you make whatever you think is a good decision on this.
I don't have a strong feeling either way, and I have a purely selfish interest in holding onto the thief because (as I noted previously) I feel like it makes it less likely that I would be killed and more likely that I would be bribed.

[hoopsguy]

Just make sure you have your business addressed (vote, actions, etc) before heading out.

I'll be looking to put my vote in sometime after 7PM when the kid is off to bed. I've tried to avoid running a bully pulpit at this point in the game, but I also want to make sure that if someone is going to be on the receiving end of the vote they have time to move their finances (if possible). Hopefully that is possible on a Friday night in the event that we end up going in the wrong direction ...

[hoopsguy]

I don't have a strong feeling either way, and I have a purely selfish interest in holding onto the thief because (as I noted previously) I feel like it makes it less likely that I would be killed and more likely that I would be bribed.

Yep, but more likely to be bankrupted by fearful Rich too. If you are looking to live long and prosper with the Rich I think it makes sense to use it (in whatever way you see fit) earlier in the game. I don't think you will be afforded the opportunity to bank it until we are down to five players or anything all that close to that number where it would have its greatest impact.

[claphamsa]

And I should warn you all now, I'm going to a hockey game in about ten minutes, and will probably not make it back home before deadline. So if anything develops in the way of votes on me, I will likely not have the opportunity to defend myself nor shift my money to someone else. For today, that would be very bad for the good side. (though it may make sense to do tomorrow... who knows what the wolves will be up to tonight?)
ur drivign to oxford for #1 Vs #2?

[Mr. Wednesday]

No, staying here for #8 vs. (unranked).

But good luck taking down the evil Wolverines. :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Two on Pass, two on Tyrith.

I'm going to keep things open and add in another candidate.
VOTE Chief Rum

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I have my other affairs in order for the day cycle. DT, if you want to go ahead with the theft plan, make a note in-thread and I'll take care of it tonight.

[SnDvls]

I honestly don't like any of the canidates with votes now so I'm going to vote where I did yesterday.

vote The Jackyal

[Tyrith]

Concerns me that more people haven't voted by now, considering that friday nights are typically so slow.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay. What's the latest?

[DaddyTorgo]

I think we should go ahead with the thief-plan since Mr. W is basically offering it. As hoops stated, he'd like to see someone other than me on the end of it...I'm open to anyone. And I should be around pretty much all night.

I don't have any real thoughts on who to vote for yet.

[claphamsa]

Miami Michigan just dropped..... Ill update you ;)

[hoopsguy]

And my father is making his way over for an unplanned visit tonight, so I'll need to get my vote in a little earlier than planned.

[hoopsguy]

Going to go with my gut on Pass/Alan on different teams, plus the last part where MrW says that Saldana's money was tied up in two different CDs hurting Passacaglia's cause. I had felt he was shifty most of this game, even if his story on Day 3 wasn't as sketchy as I initially remembered.

We'll see how this plays out, hopefully better than Day 2.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[DaddyTorgo]

Going to go with my gut on Pass/Alan on different teams, plus the last part where MrW says that Saldana's money was tied up in two different CDs hurting Passacaglia's cause. I had felt he was shifty most of this game, even if his story on Day 3 wasn't as sketchy as I initially remembered.

We'll see how this plays out, hopefully better than Day 2.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

I must have missed that. Real quick why does that hurt pass' cause?

[claphamsa]

vote count?

[claphamsa]

in the event anyone cares what i think, Im still bothered by jackyls play.....

[claphamsa]

:(

[claphamsa]

ok please distract me. im about to cry :'(

[claphamsa]

no one?

[claphamsa]

nothing?

[DaddyTorgo]

cry?

[claphamsa]

:'(

[claphamsa]

happy? sobbing here! wish I had more to drink!

[Lathum]

GO WOLVERINES!!

[claphamsa]

eat a dick!

[claphamsa]

no counts? im gonna go cry ill toss out a vote... dont think it matters tho.

cheef rum

[Lathum]

eat a dick!

are you picking on me because I am gay

[claphamsa]

yep you caught me!

[DaddyTorgo]

guess there's really no movement going on at all. I must say, i'm dissapointed

based on hoops' point and MrW's point about Saldana's $$ I guess I

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Passacaglia]

guess there's really no movement going on at all. I must say, i'm dissapointed

based on hoops' point and MrW's point about Saldana's $$ I guess I

VOTE PASSACAGLIA




I'm back.

What was hoops's point again?

[SnDvls]

wow quick run on Pass there you all better hope he's bad

[claphamsa]

i think most of the pass votes were a loooong time ago. unless i missed somethign!

[Tyrith]

Quick run over the course of....um...well, the last two votes were an hour and a half apart. And he has I think four votes total on him. What the heck are we supposed to do, sndvls?

[claphamsa]

someone got a count?

[SnDvls]

Quick run over the course of....um...well, the last two votes were an hour and a half apart. And he has I think four votes total on him. What the heck are we supposed to do, sndvls?

wasn't really looking at the time just post #'s

[Tyrith]

wasn't really looking at the time just post #'s

It's been an extremely slow evening. The votes have pretty much trickled in, going with conclusions reached eight hours ago.

[Tyrith]

Pass, time to give up the cash?

[SnDvls]

Pass, time to give up the cash?

this is the true test...if he's a wolf he's already given it all to his buddies if he's a good guy he's passing it out to those of us here now like candy.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah. I sat around for an hour and a half waiting to see if anyone else wanted to discuss anything before I voted, but no one did. And I think there's still some outstanding votes out there...*sighs*

[Tyrith]

this is the true test...if he's a wolf he's already given it all to his buddies if he's a good guy he's passing it out to those of us here now like candy.

Part of me is concerned about door number three, where #1 is largely true but he tries to mess the vote.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, time to give up the cash?

How do you think I should allocate it?

[DaddyTorgo]

if he comes out and messes the vote then we know for sure he's a wolf.

in fact...i invite the wolves to try to mess the vote, anytime. Bring it on!!

[claphamsa]

if he has cash hell just buy votes for someone else.

[SnDvls]

How do you think I should allocate it?

4 ways to the 4 of us in here now

[Tyrith]

How do you think I should allocate it?

Well, if you're good then I don't know about the hoops/alan duo, but use your best judgment on them. Otherwise...you're going to have to go with your gut, mostly. Make it a wide distribution so if you accidentally hit a wolf, even two, the cash is going to help us more than them.

[Tyrith]

If he tries something screwy, leave it to me to react. I don't want us burning 120k on extra votes because we all react at once.

[Passacaglia]

4 ways to the 4 of us in here now

Which 4 is that?

[Passacaglia]

Well, if you're good then I don't know about the hoops/alan duo, but use your best judgment on them. Otherwise...you're going to have to go with your gut, mostly. Make it a wide distribution so if you accidentally hit a wolf, even two, the cash is going to help us more than them.

Just 4 people doesn't seem wide enough.

[SnDvls]

Which 4 is that?

Clap, SnDvls, Tyrith, and DaddyT

[Tyrith]

This is a stall. He's either going to die peacefully or screw with us.

[claphamsa]

what are you gonna do?

I dont wanna see a wolf walk....

If he tries something screwy, leave it to me to react. I don't want us burning 120k on extra votes because we all react at once.

[SnDvls]

stalling tells me he's a wolf

[Passacaglia]

This is a stall. He's either going to die peacefully or screw with us.

Damnit that really doesn't help me!! I kinda need to hurry here.

[Passacaglia]

blah

[Passacaglia]

VOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Tyrith]

VOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Tyrith]

DAMN IT ALL!

[claphamsa]

well ok.....

[Tyrith]

Pass, you wolf bastard, that was too excellently done.

[claphamsa]

wtf

[Tyrith]

I was refreshing literally every 3 seconds or so, and I had a tabbed browser set up to cast those votes, and he timed it so well that as soon as I saw it, clicked over to the next screen and hit post it was 901. Darnit darnit darnit, I should have KNOWN better than to wait.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, you wolf bastard, that was too excellently done.

Hey, I'm just trying to save myself. I don't know why you guys are all on me.

[SnDvls]

well I think we got a nice circle of trust out of pass the wolf though for at least a day :)

[claphamsa]

well thats a first....

[Tyrith]

Hey, I'm just trying to save myself. I don't know why you guys are all on me.

That's a wolf play and you know it. A really well executed play, though. Sigh, how much timing practice did you go through to pull that off?

[Passacaglia]

I was refreshing literally every 3 seconds or so, and I had a tabbed browser set up to cast those votes, and he timed it so well that as soon as I saw it, clicked over to the next screen and hit post it was 901. Darnit darnit darnit, I should have KNOWN better than to wait.

I was surprised you waited, too. I half expected to find that you just said 'screw it' and vote for me extra times anyway, with the witch hunt you have on me.

[DaddyTorgo]

MOTHERFUCKING HELL YOU WOLFY BASTARD!!!

well done with the snipe

[Passacaglia]

That's a wolf play and you know it. A really well executed play, though. Sigh, how much timing practice did you go through to pull that off?

I could see it as either a wolf move, or the move of a villager just trying to keep himself alive.

[Tyrith]

I was surprised you waited, too. I half expected to find that you just said 'screw it' and vote for me extra times anyway, with the witch hunt you have on me.

I figured that if I waited you have enough cash to come over the top on me, seeing that this play was probably deliberately rigged the entire day.

[Passacaglia]

I figured that if I waited you have enough cash to come over the top on me, seeing that this play was probably deliberately rigged the entire day.

No -- I wasn't lying when I said I would be out during deadline. Otherwise, I wouldn't have wasted my first vote earlier. I went out to the bar with some people I used to work with, then was going to go out to dinner with my wife, but she was tired, and I was more than happy to not go and catch my deadline.

[Tyrith]

And I believe you, and the good guys got extremely unlucky for it. Probably.

[Passacaglia]

That's a wolf play and you know it. A really well executed play, though. Sigh, how much timing practice did you go through to pull that off?

Actually, I didn't practice the timing. I went to a web site with the official time that I had to refresh, and posted with something like 10 seconds left. Thanks to Barkeep for the Survivor game which made me learn about it in the first place!

[claphamsa]

ha! where is BK?

[SnDvls]

I could see it as either a wolf move, or the move of a villager just trying to keep himself alive.

total wolf move


no villager who is playing as a team makes this move.

[SnDvls]

well so based on pass today and the fact that none of his wolf buddies even came to help him I think we can get a pretty good read on at least the original wolves.

[Lorena]

http://www.smilies.4-user.de/include/Einkaufen/smilie_shop_026.gif

[claphamsa]

saldana?

[Barkeep49]

Despite some late attempts to convince him otherwise Pass suddenly found his suppliers unwilling to supply them. He simply didn't have the money he once had and couldn't call in the favors he'd hoped to sway influence otherwise. You are sure that you have nailed your first Cutthroat after that move. Of that there can be no doubt. Schmidty would have been the beneficiary had there been any benefit to Pass's demise other than getting rid of such a gauche presence.

In the world of bidding the following bids won:
Friend of the Bank: 5000
Wiretapper: 66,000
Financial Analyst: 10107
Notary Public 25005

Final vote count:
Render – Chief Rum (845)
Chief Rum – Render (848), Mr. W (1045), Clap (1066)
Hoopsguy – Schmidty (854)
Pass – Alan (872), Tyrith (998), Hoops (1053), Daddy T (1069)
Tyrith – Pass (1023)
The Jackal – SnDvls (1047)

[claphamsa]

wow... so none of those votes couted?

[DaddyTorgo]

WTF?

so did Pass not have the $$ to do that?

[SnDvls]

so he passed all his money away and made a bunch of fake votes to try and get someone else to waste their money and I believe Tyrith is a likely target tonght unless he put in the big bid for today.

[SnDvls]

barkeep double check your vote count you have pass voting for himself

[claphamsa]

was he out of money? or just late. sooooo confused!

Michgan sucks ass!

[Barkeep49]

Did I miss the votes from Jackal, Hoops, and Wednesday in my count? I've had a little to drink...

[Barkeep49]

barkeep double check your vote count you have pass voting for himself
That explains hoops. How about Mr. W and Jackal?
was he out of money? or just late. sooooo confused!

Michgan sucks ass!
No money

[claphamsa]

me 2!

[claphamsa]

66K for the wiretapper? jesus!

[DaddyTorgo]

aaaah. I see. So their plan was to try to get someone with $$ to basically reveal themselves.

hopefully tyrith has his $$ in the bank where the wolves can't get at it if they kill him. Although I guess they'd just convert him.

May I suggest Tyrith that while you are still on the side of good you tell Mr. W where the $$ is at so that the thief can rob you of it immediately?

[SnDvls]

not sure on Mr. W but Jackal hasn't been in the thread all game

and no vote for "Arles" too

[Barkeep49]

Since no replacement could be found, Arles has simply been removed from the game. As his beneficiary is also dead (path) his money has been removed as well

[SnDvls]

66K for the wiretapper? jesus!

it's really not that bad if the bid are high tomorrow

he got $21 K tonight along back for all the bids

[SnDvls]

Since no replacement could be found, Arles has simply been removed from the game. As his beneficiary is also dead (path) his money has been removed as well

good my worry was that the wolves would take him out for an easy money gain hench my rant the other day.

[SnDvls]

dola - but I didnt' want to say it out loud and give the wolves an idea either

[Mr. Wednesday]

Barkeep, you did miss my vote.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I voted Chief Rum in 1045.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Regarding anyone's dispensation of money... you only need to worry about money on-hand, which will go to the cutthroats if killed. Stuff in the bank will go to your beneficiary, and then the only question is how much you trust your beneficiary.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, you did miss my vote.
Thanks. Please add 15k to your on hand money from the PM you recieved.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think we should go ahead with the thief-plan since Mr. W is basically offering it. As hoops stated, he'd like to see someone other than me on the end of it...I'm open to anyone. And I should be around pretty much all night.

I don't have any real thoughts on who to vote for yet.

Wait a moment, I missed that. Why doesn't he want you on the end of it?

I actually think that the way to go might be to pick the person that we think is the most likely to be a bad dude, assume that any ill-gotten cash is on-hand rather than in the bank, and try to steal from their on-hand money. At worst, I might force them to move the money into the bank where the friend of the bank can see it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, to make that clearer, suppose I pick a "suspect" and try to steal on-hand cash.

If they're a wolf — either I pick off some nice wolf cash or they have to move it to the bank, where the friend of the bank can see it.

If they're not a wolf — they shouldn't have any significant cash on hand (aside from maybe salary) and the dangerous thief is burned.

[DaddyTorgo]

that makes sense Weds. Go for it! woohoo!

[Tyrith]

I have no more money than the next guy. I'm guessing most of us are swimming in it at this point. Although a move like that, I have to say, is uncool IMO.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so the Night 4 deadline will be Sunday at 11 AM. After that we'll go into a long Day 5.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Any thoughts on who would be best for me to try to pick off?

I have no more money than the next guy. I'm guessing most of us are swimming in it at this point. Although a move like that, I have to say, is uncool IMO.

:confused:

What's the context for this comment?

[hoopsguy]

Nice, glad to see that I got something right this game.

MrW, my concern with using the Thief on DT earlier in the day was concern about potential collusion - the guy asking for the service to be burned should not be the one verifying it was burned. Probably paranoia, but I didn't have much of a feel for DT at that time he started asking questions.

Targets - does it make sense to discuss them when they can still put in a night order re: money location?

BK - are you going to reveal the starting faction of the player (Arles) who was removed from the game?

[DaddyTorgo]

well you have plenty of time to ponder it apparently Weds.

[Tyrith]

I'd be interested in opinions on chief rum right now.

Context was the discussion of me getting converted, Mr.W.

[hoopsguy]

I've trusted Rum more than the norm this game. I don't think he comes gunning for me on Days 1 and 2, then backs off when he can sweep the leg on Day 3, if he is playing as a bad guy.

[Tyrith]

I've trusted Rum more than the norm this game. I don't think he comes gunning for me on Days 1 and 2, then backs off when he can sweep the leg on Day 3, if he is playing as a bad guy.

Well, the main thing is that he was the guy that Pass chose as his vote target, and I was wondering if you thought that meant anything.

[The Jackal]

Sorry all, this is the first time I've been home since this morning. I ended up having to work late and then going straight to see my friend. Thanks for not voting me off when I wasn't around to talk, and damn good job nailing a cutthroat.

[Chief Rum]

Another thing that is buggging me about Chief Rum is here he says that hopefully today whoever got the seer service will step forward. Technically he says so far no seer has stepped forward but hopefully today that will be different. Why would you want the seer to come forward today? Whomever won the Private Investigator last night has it for last night and tonight.. Why would they out themselves today with no bodyguard to bid on today?

Huh? I haven't won the PI, so I don't know exactly how it works, but maybe you haven't won a service at all and don't know anything about how this works? Unless the role states it is more than a one day purchase (like Wednesday's Thief service), you pretty much use it the night after you buy it. So whoever won the PI yesterday already used it and received the results. I am espousing the same point hoops has been pushing from Day One--the seer needs to come out and let us know what he/she finds out.

Am I missing something or are you?

And I say today because no one has yet come forward on previous days. I assume if they haven't come out before now, they probably won't come out now either. But there is always hope on a new day that the previous day's PI winner will see the logic in hoops' strategy and come out.

[Chief Rum]

Alan is correct in saying that the person with the seer should stay quiet today since it is a two-day deal this time around. However, if the seer got a wolf I would think they would come forward today.

I didn't realize the service was a two-day affair this time, so in that case, yes, I agree with this and with Alan's original point regarding the seer coming out. That said, it is frustrating that the seer has not come out following one day purchases. This is key information, IMO, and lends credence to the likelihood that the wolves won this service the first few days.

Which, incidentally, also works against the theory they are hoarding their money.

[Chief Rum]

Here is a thought that I think makes sense with the Thief. Have someone who wins Friend of Bank suggest a couple of candidates for the Thief based on what they learn about finances - most likely the outliers who have either a ton of money or no money in the bank.

I won Friend of the Bank today.

[Chief Rum]

Why do you think that both Pass and Chief, who you mentioned yesterday, sat back and allowed yesterday to be a tie?

Actually, no one had done a recent vote count I could recall at that point. I just knew it was down to hoops and Jackal, and I didn't like either candidate. The possibility of a tie never even occurred to me when voting.

[Chief Rum]

Alan, looking at the voting chart if you believe that wolves are going to put votes on the leaders, and that they are going to be incented to put votes up there, then what are your relative thoughts on the people who voted for me and Jackal?

Jackal and I voted for each other
You voted for me
That leaves Tyrith (who you have already discussed), MrW, Schmidty, Chief Rum, and Clap.

Or do you think looking at the alternate selections is better? That leaves DT, SnDvls, and Pass.

In your breakdown here, you suggest I voted for you. I thought you were talking about yesterday's (Thursday's) vote, the hoops-Jackal showdown. Am I wrong here? I voted for Tyrith that day because I didn't want to vote for you or The Jackal.

If it's who has voted for across the whole scope of the game, I am on that list of course from voting for you the first two days, but I'm not sure what trying to break that down will do for us, considering we A) have to assume Alan is telling the truth to believe you're good (I do believe him, but just saying it isn't 100%), and B) each vote will have had different parameters and factors related to them which make them hard to analyze against each other. A vote for you on Day One doesn't necessarily have any relation to a vote for you on Day Two (as an example).

I am just "stream of consciousness" posting right now as I catch up, so maybe this is expanded on later, but right now, I am a little confused at your list. Either you're looking at all votes so far in the game (hard to analyze) or you're saying I voted for you in the hoops-Jackal showdown, and that's not true.

[Chief Rum]

Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?

Do you still want to know?

[Chief Rum]

Pass, if hoops and alan are both bad we just lose. Not having seer scans will have pretty well wrecked us if that's the case. But hoops had every chance to get a kill yesterday, which would have cost us villagers a hundred thousand bucks. I'm highly inclined to trust him at this point. If they screwed us yesterday it was a masterful play, and sometimes you just get outplayed by good players.

Just want to clarify on why you trust hoops again. You're saying he could have killed yesterday. I assume you mean he could have thrown extra money votes at The Jackal? If that's what you're saying, how do you know the Jackal has $100,000?

If you're actually talking about hoops going after you, are you admitting you have $100,000? And why?

Or am I (likely) missing something completely obvious here?

This is a hard game to follow when you disappear for long stretches and try to catch up.

[Chief Rum]

I'd be interested in opinions on chief rum right now.

I would, too.

As for myself, I sorta trust him.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, a couple of responses:

1.) Looks like I misplaced your name on the lists. Sorry about that
2.) Yeah, if Alan is still around for Day 5 I would like to you confirm/refute his financial info

[Mr. Wednesday]

I won Friend of the Bank today.
Did you already learn what we have in the bank, or does that come later?

[Chief Rum]

Did you already learn what we have in the bank, or does that come later?

Yeah, I already know. BK sent me a PM with everyone's bank totals as of the end of the Day last night.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, is there anything worth discussing in terms of either:
a.) helping MrW select a target
b.) a number that surprises you that should come up now, rather than later, in the event that they wanted to target you with a night action?

[Chief Rum]

Chief, is there anything worth discussing in terms of either:
a.) helping MrW select a target
b.) a number that surprises you that should come up now, rather than later, in the event that they wanted to target you with a night action?

I do have a couple people who would be good targets, but given that Mr.Wednesday himself could be a bribe target tonight, I'm not sure yet if giving out names would actually hurt us.

I'm still looking over what money people could have to see if there are any apparent discrepancies. But I will say this now: several people don't have a cent in the bank (and that doesn't surprise me).

[Alan T]

I haven't really had a full chance to catch up on this thread. Today is one of my daughter's 3rd birthday, so have family in town all weekend. I doubt I'll live through tonight anyways, so not sure if I'm going to spend alot of time to catch up on the thread this weekend. I can just catch up next week.

I'm glad that we did get a wolf, and that makes me feel a bit better about Tyrith and Sndvls based on previous days interactions with Pass. I still am going to put a seer scan order in tonight, I'm leaning towards either scanning Mr.W (to see which side he is on with the thief role), or Chief Rum (really the only one left that I had a bad feeling about now that Pass is gone). There are alot of UtR people though that I don't have much of a thought about currently.

Anyone have any thoughts on whom I should scan tonight? Can't promise I'll be back in time to read any of them though ... ;)

[hoopsguy]

Could take a look at Jackal to see if there was anything going on with the tie vote.

I don't suppose BK is going to tell you order of operations on the scan, but it would be nice to know if you see before/after a bribe attempt.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, not having any money in the bank - unless you know of offers that have been made - doesn't seem like an optimal strategy. Color me surprised that several people are doing this.

Obviously investing in CDs to gain interest has value, but maintaining some liquidity for purchasing services and votes should be an important consideration as well.

[RendeR]

*peers around quietly*

[Mr. Wednesday]

If anybody's going to make suggestions for a theft target, now's the time to do it.

[hoopsguy]

MrW, do you have a record of people who have been casting votes? I had one earlier, but that stuff isn't up to date. I would probably target people who have voted every day that you distrust ... I don't think the bad guys are missing many votes.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't right now, but I'll see if I can get one together.

[Mr. Wednesday]

This is how I make the voting grid to date (each asterisk indicates an additional vote):
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 308pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=409 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 92pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4498" width=123><COL style="WIDTH: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2523" width=69><COL style="WIDTH: 53pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2560" width=70><COL style="WIDTH: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2523" width=69><COL style="WIDTH: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2852" width=78><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=123 height=17>Players</TD><TD id=td_post_1648422 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=69>Day 1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 53pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=70>Day 2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=69>Day 3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 59pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=78>Day 4</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>1. Lathum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(killed)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>2. Pass</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">SnDvls</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>3. hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Lathum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">saldana</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>4. path</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">claphamsa</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(killed)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>5. Render</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7. Alan T</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>8. The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">claphamsa</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>9. Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">RendeR</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>10. mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">SnDvls</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">saldana*</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(lynched)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>11. Schmidty</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">saldana</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>12. claphamsa</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>13. SnDvls</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>14. Mr. Wednesday</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>15. Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(lynched)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>16. DaddyTorgo</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>17. saldana</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(killed)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>18. Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Mr. Wednesday]

Things that make you say "hmm"... with a ready candidate for bankrupting, why did Passacaglia transfer his money (and then dummy vote) instead of tossing a couple of extra votes onto Chief Rum?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I just had another thought... we haven't been talking about the financial analyst at all. I don't necessarily want the person who has it (if non-cutthroat) to reveal, but maybe there would be someone that they should take a look at...

[hoopsguy]

MrW, I was surprised at the relatively low price tag to acquire the Financial Analyst role. And I think that person, if they have not already submitted their order, should look at the same candidates we've been recommending for you and Alan.

[Barkeep49]

It's so nice to pick up the morning paper and not see any of that nasty business about people dying splattered across the front pages. You'd think the police would have figured out by now that there is a serial killer out there, but they seem just as incompetent as you'd always thought. Still it's nice to know a friend of yours didn't get killed last night.

Today you may bid on:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Bodyguard Firm: May choose a player to be protected from attacks on two consecutive nights (may not be the same player). Must be used Nights 5 and 6.
Hitman: Winning player may choose another player to be killed. Must be used Night 5.
Lawyer: May learn the beneficiary of 2 players. Must be used Night 5.

Please remember that you may vote during any cycle to end the game by voting End Game. You may also rescind this. If during any cycle, day or night, 60% of the players vote to end the game, the game is ended immediately during the day and before any night actions are processed if at night. Players do not receive their voting money until the end of the day.

[hoopsguy]

Well, since there was no bodyguard action available last night I think that pretty much cinches that there was a conversion.

Also, I'm hoping that we can assume from this that there have not been previous conversions, since up to this point we have had a kill every night.

I'll hang back and see what other people have to bring to the table today. I don't have any new information to present by virtue of actions last night. But several people should have something to say:
Alan (Seer):
MrW (Thief):
??? (FOB, potentially):

[Tyrith]

Financial analyst on The Jackal came up with 78k total.

[hoopsguy]

OK, then lets start running the numbers on Jackal:

Start with 30K, 3 votes = 45K
Some level of interest could account for the other 3K

Assuming he did not win any services, do anything funky with beneficiaries, or wasn't the target of the Thief last night, and that number sounds about right for him.

Anyone have thoughts on the Jackal's money that I haven't covered in this post?

[DaddyTorgo]

Things that make you say "hmm"... with a ready candidate for bankrupting, why did Passacaglia transfer his money (and then dummy vote) instead of tossing a couple of extra votes onto Chief Rum?

wow...nice catch Mr. W

that has me ready to vote Chief Rum and I don't think there's much anyone can say to dissuade me.

[DaddyTorgo]

OK, then lets start running the numbers on Jackal:

Start with 30K, 3 votes = 45K
Some level of interest could account for the other 3K

Assuming he did not win any services, do anything funky with beneficiaries, or wasn't the target of the Thief last night, and that number sounds about right for him.

Anyone have thoughts on the Jackal's money that I haven't covered in this post?

nope. That sounds correct. i'm too lazy to figure out how much $$ he'd need to put into how long a CD to get 3k, but whatever

[hoopsguy]

We also can consider the "end game" strategy today.

Wolves lost one and gained one, by all appearances.

Game started with 18, we are down to 11. Among the dead:
Rich - Lathum, Path, Mauboy, Swaggs, Saldana
Cutthroats - Pass
??? - Arles (BK, are you willing to indicate his faction?)

[hoopsguy]

Following up on this logic, these players remain in the game, with notes on money deviations:

Hoopsguy - beneficiary of Lathum D1
Render - missed a pair of votes
Alan T - undisputed claims for two services
Jackal - per Tyrith, has 78K in assets. Also missed a vote
Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?)
Schmidty - not a money observation, but I believe he should stop voting for me
Clap - has suggested he failed to obtain services first three days (can find post if needed)
SnDvls -
MrW - undisputed claim for purchasing Thief
Torgo -
Tyrith - claims to have purchased Financial Advisor yesterday

[Barkeep49]

Arles was Rich

[Tyrith]

Oh, and that 78k doesn't include interest from any CDs he currently holds.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, do you see anything that you can take from that scan that indicates Jackal is a Cutthroat?

My read is that is entirely consistent with a villager who has missed a vote and played a passive game. Unless someone can come up with a more sinister interpretation he is trusted by me, for today at least.

[hoopsguy]

Have a couple of updates for the money post, additions in bold:

Hoopsguy - beneficiary of Lathum D1
Render - missed a pair of votes
Alan T - undisputed claims for two services
Jackal - per Tyrith, has 78K in assets. Also missed a vote
Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?)
Schmidty - not a money observation, but I believe he should stop voting for me
Clap - has suggested he failed to obtain services first three days (can find post if needed)
SnDvls -
MrW - undisputed claim for purchasing Thief, inherited money from Saldana on Day 2.
Torgo -
Tyrith - claims to have purchased Financial Advisor yesterday

Wolf Pass inherited money from Pass on Day 3.

[hoopsguy]

Er, wolf pass inherited money from Path on Day 3.

Given the increasing amounts of money accumulated by successful votes, the total amount of money inherited by Pass is likely equal or greater than the combined amount that MrW and I inherited since Lathum appears to have purchased a service before being killed.

Given that Arles was another member of the Rich, that basically negates the advantage we had with a no lynch on Day 3. So we've given up 7 of our members for one of theirs.

Finally, some of the larger acquisitions of services are by people who are assumed to have begun the game as members of the Rich.

In short, I'm not all that confident about a showdown today. I think we would win it if everyone started with 30K and there were three wolves to start, but if you nudge up either their starting numbers or their starting dollars then I feel less confident. Probably makes sense to take out another wolf if we can today, but I'm all for debate on this point.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm all for voting for chief rum!

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm straight rich hoopy

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

and that's based on MrW's chart.

Seems like one of those situations where the wolves maybe slipped, but i'll wait a while to actually cast that vote since "revoting" essentially costs 20k (to nullify the effect of your first vote)

[hoopsguy]

Yeah, I think it makes sense to see where everyone comes in with their check-in/information posts before making a move.

I'm not as sold on the Chief Rum vote quite yet. In theory, Pass could have put the vote on anyone at the end if he was going to bluff/vote someone. He could be trying to get us to go after Rum or to ignore Rum, depending on what type of move he was making at the time.

Heck, that is the kind of stuff I like to do on the way out as a wolf - create a scenario where you are guessing whether I'm giving you something easy or just bluffing at it. I do find it interesting that he didn't save himself, but I'm not as interested about not "saving himself" versus "Player X" since the wolves should have had enough cash to lynch pretty much anyone they wanted if they were looking to snipe the vote yesterday. I think Pass was just hoping to siphon cash and Tyrith had already anticipated that in the thread.

[Alan T]

My sister's family left to head home, so since I have a Seer result in my inbox, I'll assume that I need to try to catch up to this thread.

I don't know if it is still applicable, but yesterday I was torn between scanning Chief Rum and Mr.Wednesday. In the end I went with Mr.W with the rationale that clearing or damning Chief would only tell us information about him. Clearing or damning Mr.W would help us with any information that he provided about anyone else.

So I was told that the Private investigator could not find any evidence of Mr.W being a cutthroat. Now I'm going to try to catch up on the thread.

[The Jackal]

I'm tempted to vote end game here. I'm not sure how much we think everyone has across the board, but I haven't spent anything, and I bet the cutthroats have been bidding hard on a few of the services.

Honestly I have no idea who the cutthroats might be. It's kind of hard to gauge how they would be playing. My votes have all been to accrue more money, and that's been about it.

[hoopsguy]

OK, starting to work through some pros/cons on votes for today, factoring in money and info from last night

Hoopsguy - beneficiary of Lathum D1, cleared by AlanT on Night 3
Render - missed a pair of votes
Alan T - undisputed claims for two services, cleared Hoopsguy on Night 3 and Mr Wednesday on Night 4
Jackal - per Tyrith, has 78K in assets. Also missed a vote
Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?), issuing early votes makes it hard to assign value to his voting record
Schmidty - not a money observation, but I believe he should stop voting for me
Clap - has suggested he failed to obtain services first three days (can find post if needed). Voted for wrong guy yesterday
SnDvls - added 6th candidate to vote yesterday, was concerned about run on Pass
MrW - undisputed claim for purchasing Thief, inherited money from Saldana on Day 2. Cleared by Alan Night 4
Torgo - had hanging vote on Pass yesterday
Tyrith - claims to have purchased Financial Advisor yesterday, had right vote yesterday

Knee-jerk reaction, I want to take a harder look at SnDvls and Clap at this stage of the game.

[hoopsguy]

Jackal, let me try and mock up the numbers if the wolves started with 30K each and have only secured one service (the no-bankrupcy). I'm also going to work with the assumption that they haven't received any money on night kills and that they converted someone who had voted every day to get maximum money.

[hoopsguy]

Please feel free to jump in if I'm using bad math.

Wolf #1: 30K starting - 25K for bankrupcy + 4*15K for votes = 65K
Wolf #2: 30K starting + 4*15K for votes = 90K
Wolf #3 (Pass): 30K starting + 3*15K (died on Day 4) + Path's money (30K + 3*15K) = 150K
Wolf Convert: 30K starting + 4*15K = 90K

Using these numbers, with no basis for whether they are high or low, gives the wolves roughly 400K. Keep in mind, this assumes one convert (think this is a safe assumption) and assumes they did not convert Alan since he has depleted funds (risky, since he had a seer scan).

Villagers:
Render: 30K + 2 votes = 60K
Jackal: 78K per Tyrith
Alan: 30K
Hoops: hmm, not sure I want to indicate my cash here
DT: 90K (assuming good based on hanging vote yesterday)
MrW: 30K + 4 votes = 90K - 40K (Thief) = 50K + Saldana's cash (60K) = 110K
Last villager = 90K

Villager total, minus my cash = 460K

I've got enough to push our margin over the wolves up over 100K, but if there were four starting wolves then this gets really close.

[Chief Rum]

??? (FOB, potentially):

I won FOB and I got my information Friday night. I didn't expect to get anything more today (and I didn't).

[DaddyTorgo]

Please feel free to jump in if I'm using bad math.

Wolf #1: 30K starting - 25K for bankrupcy + 4*15K for votes = 65K
Wolf #2: 30K starting + 4*15K for votes = 90K
Wolf #3 (Pass): 30K starting + 3*15K (died on Day 4) + Path's money (30K + 3*15K) = 150K
Wolf Convert: 30K starting + 4*15K = 90K

Using these numbers, with no basis for whether they are high or low, gives the wolves roughly 400K. Keep in mind, this assumes one convert (think this is a safe assumption) and assumes they did not convert Alan since he has depleted funds (risky, since he had a seer scan).

Villagers:
Render: 30K + 2 votes = 60K
Jackal: 78K per Tyrith
Alan: 30K
Hoops: hmm, not sure I want to indicate my cash here
DT: 90K (assuming good based on hanging vote yesterday)
MrW: 30K + 4 votes = 90K - 40K (Thief) = 50K + Saldana's cash (60K) = 110K
Last villager = 90K

Villager total, minus my cash = 460K

I've got enough to push our margin over the wolves up over 100K, but if there were four starting wolves then this gets really close.

does that take into account services people won?

if you have enough to push it up over 100k then we have 100k+ more than the wolves and we ought to take a shot, because that's the $$ that one person could have.

however we don't KNOW that the wolves only started out with 30k. But if yours pushes it up over 100k then i'm comfortable going for it, based on what I know.

I dunno...hmmm

[hoopsguy]

Upon further review, I'm missing another villager in that list. So you can probably assign another 90K, give or take, to the villager side.

I think there are probably two original wolves between the group of SnDvls, Clap, Chief Rum, and Schmidty. And if the wolves were making a money play for last night's bribe then these four are among the best candidates out there in terms of voting records and lack of disclosed big-money services.

[Chief Rum]

wow...nice catch Mr. W

that has me ready to vote Chief Rum and I don't think there's much anyone can say to dissuade me.

My guess would be twofold: A) we're at the point where we can vote to end the game, and if he can move his money away, it does the wolves more good to keep that money in the fold with them than to keep himself alive for another day; and B) for exactly what you're doing--put suspicion on a villager and get you guys to bankrupt me while the wolves live another day.

Think about it--why would a wolf in trouble even mention another wolf, in any context?

[Chief Rum]

Chief Rum - believed to have purchased FOB on D3 (or was it D4?)

I purchased the BG on Day Three (and said that at the time). I purchased FOB on Day 4.

[The Jackal]

I think that the longer we wait, the worse shape we're going to be in for end game. Problem is, who knows who's been bribed already. But as we're losing villagers, we're losing that advantage of many more votes than the cutthroats.

I'm going to go out on a limb and start this off.

Vote End Game

Obviously this will be irrelevant if other people don't agree with me, but someone had to start it.

[Chief Rum]

Oh, and I would have had FOB on Day 1 if my bid had been more apparent to Barkeep. That's out there, too.

[hoopsguy]

DT, there is a lot about the Cutthroat game that the Rich don't know.

Tyrith put it pretty well after Night 3 when he suggested that in a game where we have no successful seer scans, no blocks, and a pile of dead villagers that we should not be able to win by voting endgame if the ruleset stands up.

So that is what I'm worried about. As I crunch the numbers making conventional WW assumptions I think we are in very good shape. But our play up to this point, in terms of results (one wolf, seven dead villagers) is mediocre at best.

If we want to take this down to the wire like a traditional werewolf game (kill/bankrupt 'em all) I feel reasonably good about our chances. Like I said before, I think we take a hard look at SnDvls + Clap, look back at Passacaglia's play, and make a call from there for today.

But if people want to go the money route, I'm good with having that discussion and will give exact details on my money if that becomes a critical element in making decisions.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, are you willing to disclose some FOB information from earlier to help with either voting patterns or making end-game decisions? I think the information is more likely to help with the former, as the wolves probably went CD or on-hand for the majority of their cash.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, thanks for the corrections/updates. Can you provide the sum total of those purchases, saving me having to go back and look those up?

I don't think it has a huge impact on the money analysis, but I want to tighten up the numbers when there is data available.

[Alan T]

First observation is.. its amazing that I am able to realize how much Hoops posts now that my quote is in his signature.. every time I came across it, I had to double take to figure out the subject of the post!

[Chief Rum]

i'm all for voting for chief rum!

Okay, you have said this twice now in pretty short succession. Do you have anything else that makes you believe I am guilty than what Mr. W said? I have alreayd refuted that. If you fall for that move by Pass, frankly, you're being foolish.

Although I have been talked about by people as being someone they have "bad feelings" about, just what exact evidence is there out there against me? And you have done barely anything except drop accusations without reason.

How about this? As of the end of Day Four, The Jackal had $10,000 in the bank. There, I have now provided more useful information than you have the entire game.

I am beginning to strongly suspect you are trying to get a bandwagon going against me because you know I am not a wolf. And there's only one way for you to know that for sure.

[Chief Rum]

DT: 90K (assuming good based on hanging vote yesterday)

Hmm, didn't catch that. Well, he's probably good then, but pretty darn misguided if so.

[Chief Rum]

Upon further review, I'm missing another villager in that list. So you can probably assign another 90K, give or take, to the villager side.

I think there are probably two original wolves between the group of SnDvls, Clap, Chief Rum, and Schmidty. And if the wolves were making a money play for last night's bribe then these four are among the best candidates out there in terms of voting records and lack of disclosed big-money services.

What exactly is bad about my voting record? And you know what services I bid on on three of the four days (and now the fourth--I bid for but did not win the Seer service on Day 2).

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, did you get a breakdown of assets for The Jackal?

Jackal, can you give us a rundown of how you accumulated 78K in money up to this point? And, if you don't mind since information is out there already, list where you have kept money for each day (in hand, bank, CD)?

[Chief Rum]

Chief, are you willing to disclose some FOB information from earlier to help with either voting patterns or making end-game decisions? I think the information is more likely to help with the former, as the wolves probably went CD or on-hand for the majority of their cash.

Sure, if it will help, and if it will also show I am a villager (since some need convincing apparently). I'm not sure how much good it does, though. I only know totals for players as of the end of Day Four and only the money they had in the bank.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, thanks for the corrections/updates. Can you provide the sum total of those purchases, saving me having to go back and look those up?

I don't think it has a huge impact on the money analysis, but I want to tighten up the numbers when there is data available.

Got it, you basically made the same observation. Well, if it will help.

[Alan T]

Next observation I have.. in regards to Passacaglia's death.. it seems the assumptions are either:

1) He was trying to make a play to either steer us to or away Chief Rum

or

2) He was trying to get some of us to spend extra cash to make sure he was lynched.


I don't think it could possibly be 2. If that was his intention, why would he wait till the last possible second to post it, where it would be too late for any votes to retaliate.. In my mind 2 is out completely as an option.

I think his move was either: #1 either to steer us to/from Chief Rum or even to just mess with us to have fun as he was being voted out...

Another option I think should be considered is #3 he just screwed up, and thought he had more money than he did.

Its a tough situation to figure though, because if it is #1, then I don't know if it says anything good/bad about Chief, but it also makes me question Tyrith who predicted it and also appeared to look as trying to have stopped it, but just a second too late so it didn't cost him anything.

I personally think I'm leaning towards option #3 though right now which no one has mentioned prior to now (that I noticed at least).. and if that is the case then I think it helps me feel better about Chief Rum, it solidifies how I felt about Tyrith already based on his previous interaction with Passacaglia and it helps me feel better about DaddyTorgo.

So going forward I guess I have two different scenerios for CoT right now..

If option #3:


Trust:
3. hoopsguy
14. Mr. Wednesday

Feel they are Good:
9. Chief Rum
16. DaddyTorgo
18. Tyrith

Leaning Good:
13. SnDvls

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa



If option #1 as some had said, then this is how I see it:

Trust:
3. hoopsguy
14. Mr. Wednesday

Leaning Good:
13. SnDvls

Slight distrust:
16. DaddyTorgo
18. Tyrith

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
9. Chief Rum
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa

So perhaps part of it for me is wishful thinking that it is option #3 as it would help me feel better about the current situation we are in, but I think it also lines up with my previous thoughts about how I felt Passacaglia tried to play a "rope a dope" with Hoopsguy into getting Tyrith lynched previously as well.

[hoopsguy]

What exactly is bad about my voting record? And you know what services I bid on on three of the four days (and now the fourth--I bid for but did not win the Seer service on Day 2).

Your voting record, in that you have voted all four days.

In case I haven't made it pretty clear along the way, I don't think that you are one of the original Cutthroats. I seem to be going against the opinion of some other players with that opinion, but if you started off bad then you've done a good job of keeping me off-balance.

Now as a candidate for conversion last night, the fact that you voted all four days and are not associated with a 20K+ purchase like MrW and Alan (who is vouching for MrW) makes you a more attractive candidate. You could say the same thing about me if you were so inclined.

[Chief Rum]

Well, if that is the reasoning for everyone, then it seems I need to be scanned, so you guys can know one way or another.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, why do you lean towards good with SnDvls? That is the candidate that we seem to be the furthest apart on right now.

[Alan T]

My next observation is in regards to whether it should be voted to end the game today or not.. I can safely say that I am absolutely not ready to vote either way tonight. I need to spend time trying to figure out how much money I think each side may have, and I won't have the time for that this evening. I likely will have to look into it further tommorrow when I have more time at work.

One question I have for Barkeep: Can you unvote the vote to end the game or not? Can you vote multiple times for it for additional cost?

My initial gut instinct however right now which is based on my previous thought regarding my personal trust list is that if things are playing out as I -think- they are, Right now I feel pretty good about 6 people and have only 4 that I don't feel great about. I partially am wondering if it is more risky to gamble over how much money the wolves started with in ending the game in a chance to possibly just hand them the game? If we make sure we bid enough to get the night assassin today, combined with today's and tommorrow's lynch that is 3 of the 4 people on the list that we could take out.

I would feel that we would have to be as Hoops said in one of his posts in pretty ok shape "traditional" Werewolf wise.. Perhaps its best to pursue that goal instead.

[DaddyTorgo]

Hmm, didn't catch that. Well, he's probably good then, but pretty darn misguided if so.

wouldn't be the first time i've been misguided.

I can certainly see your point as far as pass trying to mislead, that would be the smart wolf play.

[Chief Rum]

Your voting record, in that you have voted all four days.

In case I haven't made it pretty clear along the way, I don't think that you are one of the original Cutthroats. I seem to be going against the opinion of some other players with that opinion, but if you started off bad then you've done a good job of keeping me off-balance.

Now as a candidate for conversion last night, the fact that you voted all four days and are not associated with a 20K+ purchase like MrW and Alan (who is vouching for MrW) makes you a more attractive candidate. You could say the same thing about me if you were so inclined.

So then shouldn't you include yourself on the list?

I would think it silly if you were to hang me because I was wiser with my money than some others. Considering the point is for us to have more money than the wolves. If we follow this logic, maybe you're right and we net a wolf, maybe even two. But then we bankrupt, what, two of the richest Riches left? How would that help us? Then we put ourselves in the position of hopin gthose Riches move their money before deadline and move it to non-wolves. And the wolves we already know that money will go to another wolf, no doubts about it.

As a spotlight for finding wolves, it's decent. As a strategy in a game where we need to have more than the wolves, not so much.

[Alan T]

My next thought which shouldn't really be a suprise to people is that I think it is a mistake to try to guess who might or might not be the conversion target. I think it seems pretty obvious that we likely had a conversion last night, and that we hadn't had one prior to that most likely.

Perhaps it is a tad bit self-serving on my part as I figure I was one of the conversion possibilities, but we have most likely a really small list of possible original wolves from which there has to be at least one more if not two more within. If we start trying to guess who the conversion target was, it pretty much opens us to lynching anyone again.. I think that would be a mistake at this point that could cost us the game.

[claphamsa]

DT, there is a lot about the Cutthroat game that the Rich don't know.

Tyrith put it pretty well after Night 3 when he suggested that in a game where we have no successful seer scans, no blocks, and a pile of dead villagers that we should not be able to win by voting endgame if the ruleset stands up.

So that is what I'm worried about. As I crunch the numbers making conventional WW assumptions I think we are in very good shape. But our play up to this point, in terms of results (one wolf, seven dead villagers) is mediocre at best.

If we want to take this down to the wire like a traditional werewolf game (kill/bankrupt 'em all) I feel reasonably good about our chances. Like I said before, I think we take a hard look at SnDvls + Clap, look back at Passacaglia's play, and make a call from there for today.

But if people want to go the money route, I'm good with having that discussion and will give exact details on my money if that becomes a critical element in making decisions.
why me again?

[Alan T]

Alan, why do you lean towards good with SnDvls? That is the candidate that we seem to be the furthest apart on right now.

It goes back to my original reason why I was suspicious of Pass in the first place. The conversation regarding whom might have been a "veteran" wolf that would have gotten rid of Lathum. Passacaglia spent a good bit of the morning trying to convince myself as well as a couple of other people to look at Sndvls and question him. I just didn't see anything there and it felt halfway forced to me... after a while of that and realizing he wasn't gaining any ground, it appeared he shifted directions and tried to get people to go after Tyrith instead.

He seemed that day to me to be passive-agressively trying to convince others to "lead the charge" against those two. That is probably the main gut reason why both Tyrith and Sndvls felt decently good to me prior to yesterday, and why I think my suggestion for what happened at Passacaglia's lynch is more likely in my mind as it makes me feel even better about Tyrith. The alternative makes me question Tyrith and feel he could be bad, which I don't think really jives very well for my earlier thoughts/feelings.

[DaddyTorgo]

I agree. You save the likely conversion target for last and go after who would be the traditional wolves. It's the only play that makes sense...stay on course and don't let a potential conversion mess up your plan.

the other alternative is that they tried to convert but failed? I don't know how the cutthroat's rules work, if they can do something else if they fail or not, and thus could have tried conversions before and failed and last night succeeded or what. But that's a potential too

[DaddyTorgo]

It goes back to my original reason why I was suspicious of Pass in the first place. The conversation regarding whom might have been a "veteran" wolf that would have gotten rid of Lathum. Passacaglia spent a good bit of the morning trying to convince myself as well as a couple of other people to look at Sndvls and question him. I just didn't see anything there and it felt halfway forced to me... after a while of that and realizing he wasn't gaining any ground, it appeared he shifted directions and tried to get people to go after Tyrith instead.

He seemed that day to me to be passive-agressively trying to convince others to "lead the charge" against those two. That is probably the main gut reason why both Tyrith and Sndvls felt decently good to me prior to yesterday, and why I think my suggestion for what happened at Passacaglia's lynch is more likely in my mind as it makes me feel even better about Tyrith. The alternative makes me question Tyrith and feel he could be bad, which I don't think really jives very well for my earlier thoughts/feelings.

ok

so not you, hoops, mr.w, me, tyrith, sndvls

who else could be an original-wolf...hmm

[Chief Rum]

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

[Chief Rum]

"sue" in previous post is a typo intended to read "use".

[Alan T]

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

Yeah, we talked about it briefly yesterday when I mentioned I wasn't aware of that either. I believe what was said was money on hand or in the bank was available for bids on services, votes and gifts to other players. Anything in a CD is not movable until it matures other than being passed to the person's beneficiary in the case of a night kill.

I did not bid on any services yesterday (for the first time all game), however I am not saying currently if I put my money into the bank, in a CD or kept on hand. One thing I still am not sure about however is whether or not money in CDs count to the final totals to win the game or not?

[hoopsguy]

why me again?

Because there are a bunch of candidates who don't make sense as an original wolf and only so many people left in the game.

You have voted all four times - that is good behavior on either side, but it is imperative for the minority side to get money every chance they get. I'm much more inclined to believe that a villager misses votes (Render twice, Jackal once) than a wolf.

You haven't been scanned at any point in the game. No one has provided information on you like Tyrith did on Jackal that supports the idea that you are any more likely to be a villager or bad guy.

In short, based on a lack of known actions (successful bids revealed that are unchallenged) and a lack of actions taken against you, you are one of the people that is hardest to place in the game.

[RendeR]

"Avoid the Clap"

Its really good advice....


VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[hoopsguy]

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

Yep, I mentioned that when you said there were several people with no money in the bank.

I'm all for a public discussion on this topic, but ultimately it is your call.

[Alan T]

Ok, so Tyrith stated Jackal had 78k total? Now assuming I am right about Tyrith and that he can be trusted, that tells us one of the following is true:

1) Jackal is a wolf and they didn't start with any more money than we did..

2) Jackal is not a wolf

3) we were just unlucky and Jackal is a wolf but had moved his money to someone else.

Considering Passacaglia had to have shipped off his money to a fellow wolf, if there were two wolves to start, it would have to have been Jackal (if he was the partner wolf).. if there were three wolves to start, then it would be a 50/50 chance Jackal would have alot more cash.

I think for now, I don't add Jackal to my trusted list, but I think I feel as good about him as I do about Sndvls for now. Of course if I'm wrong about Tyrith/Daddytorgo/Chief Rum, then well my entire CoT completely falls apart and I've pretty much been horrible at this game as Tyrith being bad could be feeding us a lie here on Jackal too.. but for now if I am making the leap of faith that Tyrith is good, I think I won't be voting for Jackal today.

[Alan T]

I think right now I am looking at Schmidty, Claphasma or Render for today's vote.. I find it interesting that Render was quick to get out a vote on one of the others on the list. I feel at least decently good that we could even have 2 wolves out of the three names here.

[Chief Rum]

I think there are probably two original wolves between the group of SnDvls, Clap, Chief Rum, and Schmidty. And if the wolves were making a money play for last night's bribe then these four are among the best candidates out there in terms of voting records and lack of disclosed big-money services.

Interesting. Of the four named above in hoops' latest list of potential wolves, three of them had no money in the bank as of the end of Day Four.

...and...



If option #3:

...

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa



If option #1 as some had said, then this is how I see it:

...

Everyone Else:
5. Render
8. The Jackal
9. Chief Rum
11. Schmidty
12. claphamsa


...from Alan's analysis of guys he feels good/bad about (given his presented two scenarios), three of the four on that first list had no money in thew bank, and four of the five on his second list had no money.

And in the interest of full disclosure, yes, I didn't have any money in the bank either, as I didn't realize you could use money in the bank for bids.

[RendeR]

I will gladly discuss my cash on hand, if thats what the group decides to do. Forgive me if I'm missing something obvious, its been a long day.

[hoopsguy]

Assuming that Jackal is good, I don't think that SnDvls and Clap are on the same team. They voted for the same people on Days 2 and 3.

Day 2 - Mauboy vs Saldana was villager vs villager
Day 3 - Me vs Jackal was villager (so I say, Alan's scan backs it up) vs (presumed?) villager

If Jackal is a wolf, then I'm surprised if there is a wolf vote on him in a 4-4 tie. So consider this yet another reason that I think Jackal is likely to be a villager.

But, going back to my original point - I don't think there is any reason for two wolves to vote together on back-to-back days in tight villager vs villager showdowns. So I think you've got one wolf and one villager out of those two guys.

I'll go back and evaluate the timing on the votes to make sure that this argument holds up, but it makes sense to me strictly on final results.

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, we talked about it briefly yesterday when I mentioned I wasn't aware of that either. I believe what was said was money on hand or in the bank was available for bids on services, votes and gifts to other players. Anything in a CD is not movable until it matures other than being passed to the person's beneficiary in the case of a night kill.

I did not bid on any services yesterday (for the first time all game), however I am not saying currently if I put my money into the bank, in a CD or kept on hand. One thing I still am not sure about however is whether or not money in CDs count to the final totals to win the game or not?

Well, this would explain another bit of information I received from the account lists.

As for your last question, I don't know if this was said publically, or if it was just me in a bunch of question PMs to BK near the start of the game, but I know that money in CDs do not count toward end game (so I have been using Day One's mostly).

If we vote End Game, we should do it at Night, when CDs have matured (unless we have reason to believe the wolves have more tied into CDs than we do, of course).

[RendeR]

I think right now I am looking at Schmidty, Claphasma or Render for today's vote.. I find it interesting that Render was quick to get out a vote on one of the others on the list. I feel at least decently good that we could even have 2 wolves out of the three names here.


Honestly Alan, I put that vote in without regard to anything posted thus far other than who everyone seemed to trust the least. Out fo those it seems like Clap has been a good target recently and I went with him because I had a good joke to use. "Avoid the Clap- Jimmy Dugans" "Thats good advice!!!"

Sorry, I watched A League of their own yesterday, I found the connection to clap's name too easy to pass up.

[hoopsguy]

Interesting. Of the four named above in hoops' latest list of potential wolves, three of them had no money in the bank as of the end of Day Four.

...and...



...from Alan's analysis of guys he feels good/bad about (given his presented two scenarios), three of the four on that first list had no money in thew bank, and four of the five on his second list had no money.

And in the interest of full disclosure, yes, I didn't have any money in the bank either, as I didn't realize you could use money in the bank for bids.

Since you have already said that Jackal had 10K in the bank, that means that SnDvls was the other person to have money and the others did not.

[Chief Rum]

Yep, I mentioned that when you said there were several people with no money in the bank.

I'm all for a public discussion on this topic, but ultimately it is your call.

I have offered a little more up above. I can go full disclosure, if needed, but realize doing so will also reveal who has the most money in the bank as of the end of that day, too, and we may want to weigh that against the need to get this information out there. What do you and others think?

[Alan T]

I have offered a little more up above. I can go full disclosure, if needed, but realize doing so will also reveal who has the most money in the bank as of the end of that day, too, and we may want to weigh that against the need to get this information out there. What do you and others think?


I don't think it would be a good idea, nor do I think it is necessary. I think you can provide information about the people whom we are questioning the most, but I also think it might be good to use the information just as a check to make sure those people stay honest as well. It should be pretty easy this game for people to be able to account for where there money has been if they are honest about it.

I don't see any reason to reveal to the wolves information about people we are not going to be looking at today.

[claphamsa]

Because there are a bunch of candidates who don't make sense as an original wolf and only so many people left in the game.

You have voted all four times - that is good behavior on either side, but it is imperative for the minority side to get money every chance they get. I'm much more inclined to believe that a villager misses votes (Render twice, Jackal once) than a wolf.

You haven't been scanned at any point in the game. No one has provided information on you like Tyrith did on Jackal that supports the idea that you are any more likely to be a villager or bad guy.

In short, based on a lack of known actions (successful bids revealed that are unchallenged) and a lack of actions taken against you, you are one of the people that is hardest to place in the game.
i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I think you've offered up enough to get a good discussion going.

Do any of the people who Chief has suggested did not have money in the bank - Clap, RendeR, Schmidty - want to challenge his claim?

[Alan T]

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

Was the money you had on hand taken or the money in the bank?

[hoopsguy]

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

Did they take money from your bank account or on-hand money?

[hoopsguy]

Damn, type too slowly :)

[Chief Rum]

Since you have already said that Jackal had 10K in the bank, that means that SnDvls was the other person to have money and the others did not.

Yup. Not really too hard to put two and two together there, I know, but I didn't really intend for it to be.

I think The Jackal is good for missing the vote and other reasons stated above. I am also leaning toward Render being good, as he also missed a vote.

It's not an outright clear, but it's good enough for now for me to look elsewhere.

For me, that leaves Schmidty and clap as original wolves.

[Chief Rum]

i got robbed last night.... does that make you feel better?

Well, that's interesting. Is there a service besides the Thief that robs?

[Alan T]

Can someone with a better memory than me recall which two votes Render missed and what the final totals were? I remember at least one of the votes (if not both) he was actually around for and just didn't vote.

[hoopsguy]

Well, that's interesting. Is there a service besides the Thief that robs?

Not that is published in the rules, best I can tell.

Is this about to get more interesting? :eek:

[Chief Rum]

Did they take money from your bank account or on-hand money?

Well, assuming it happened before he could submit his financial actions yesterday, it should have been all on hand--he had no money in the bank, and I assume any money he had in a CD would have been safe from robbery.