WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[claphamsa]

Mr W took my 9K and change I had on hand!

[hoopsguy]

This is how I make the voting grid to date (each asterisk indicates an additional vote):
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 308pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=409 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 92pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4498" width=123><COL style="WIDTH: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2523" width=69><COL style="WIDTH: 53pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2560" width=70><COL style="WIDTH: 52pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2523" width=69><COL style="WIDTH: 59pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2852" width=78><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 92pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=123 height=17>Players</TD><TD id=td_post_1648422 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=69>Day 1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 53pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=70>Day 2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 52pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=69>Day 3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 59pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=78>Day 4</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>1. Lathum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(killed)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>2. Pass</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">SnDvls</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>3. hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Lathum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">saldana</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>4. path</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">claphamsa</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(killed)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>5. Render</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>7. Alan T</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>8. The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">claphamsa</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>9. Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">RendeR</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>10. mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">SnDvls</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">saldana*</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(lynched)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>11. Schmidty</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">saldana</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>12. claphamsa</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>13. SnDvls</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>14. Mr. Wednesday</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">The Jackal</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>15. Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(lynched)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>16. DaddyTorgo</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Chief Rum</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>17. saldana</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">(killed)</TD><TD class=xl22 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>18. Tyrith</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Swaggs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">mauboy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">hoopsguy</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Passacaglia</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

MrW published this late last night.

[Chief Rum]

Not that is published in the rules, best I can tell.

Is this about to get more interesting? :eek:

Alan, bear with me, because this points at you.

Let's say clap is telling the truth AND that there is no service or ability by anyone (wolf or villager) who can rob another player except the Thief.

That means Mr. Wednesday is lying.
And since he said Mr. Wednesday is good, that means Alan is lying.
And since Alan said hoopsguy is good, technically, even that's not safe.

Unlikely, yes, but I had to throw it out there.

I am much more inclined to guess clap is lying or go after Schmidty right now than bark up this unlikely tree.

[Alan T]

Well, that's interesting. Is there a service besides the Thief that robs?


Are you saying you got robbed also?

[Chief Rum]

Mr W took my 9K and change I had on hand!

Why didn't you say this from the start in your first post? If you knew who robbed you, why would you hide it in your first post? Heck, why wouldn't you have posted about this earlier today (and especially after Mr. Wednesdya posted)?

[Alan T]

Alan, bear with me, because this points at you.

Let's say clap is telling the truth AND that there is no service or ability by anyone (wolf or villager) who can rob another player except the Thief.

That means Mr. Wednesday is lying.
And since he said Mr. Wednesday is good, that means Alan is lying.
And since Alan said hoopsguy is good, technically, even that's not safe.

Unlikely, yes, but I had to throw it out there.

I am much more inclined to guess clap is lying or go after Schmidty right now than bark up this unlikely tree.

I am not sure that I follow here.. What did Mr.W say that he is lying about? I missed it when I was trying to catch up.. did he say he did not rob anyone?

[Chief Rum]

Are you saying you got robbed also?

Huh? No, that was in response to clap's news. Far as I know, no one has robbed me.

[Alan T]

I think Chief has confused me.. I'm going to go back to see who Mr.W said he robbed.

[Chief Rum]

I am not sure that I follow here.. What did Mr.W say that he is lying about? I missed it when I was trying to catch up.. did he say he did not rob anyone?

Oh, crap, I think I got it confused. Who was the financial analyst? I think I was confusing Mr. Wednesday as the Thief and whoever got The Jackal's finances.

I'm sorry--ignore everything I said above in the past few posts.

Doesn't clear clap, though.

[hoopsguy]

Last I read, MrW was planning to use his ability last night as he was soliciting targets.

Now, how he was going to use it - to go after a windfall or to burn it (per DTs suggestion in the thread) - was pretty much up to him.

Clap, since there is a fair amount of conversation around you at the moment:
- why did you have 9K on hand and zero in the bank?
- how much did you have in CDs?

I know the CD $$$ is info that the wolves can use as well, but the answer here could go a long ways towards determining votes today.

[claphamsa]

Why didn't you say this from the start in your first post? If you knew who robbed you, why would you hide it in your first post? Heck, why wouldn't you have posted about this earlier today (and especially after Mr. Wednesdya posted)?
crippling hangover......

And why would I need to say who did it? I m just ssuming it was him.... as you pointed no one else can rob!

[claphamsa]

Last I read, MrW was planning to use his ability last night as he was soliciting targets.

Now, how he was going to use it - to go after a windfall or to burn it (per DTs suggestion in the thread) - was pretty much up to him.

Clap, since there is a fair amount of conversation around you at the moment:
- why did you have 9K on hand and zero in the bank?
- how much did you have in CDs?

I know the CD $$$ is info that the wolves can use as well, but the answer here could go a long ways towards determining votes today.
why would anyone ever have money in the bank??
The rest (70isg K)

[hoopsguy]

Services from yesterday:
- Tyrith has claimed to use the Financial Analyst on Jackal, determined that he had 78K in assets
- MrW was looking to use the Thief ability last night, Clap is claiming that he had 9K on hand
- Chief has claimed to use the Friend of the Bank, has stated that Clap had zero money in the bank
- Alan T has claimed to use the Seer ability last night and clears MrW as Rich

I think that covers the actions from last night, although there are still a few passive services that have not been accounted for.

[hoopsguy]

why would anyone ever have money in the bank??
The rest (70isg K)

OK, can you go back and do a day-by-day recap (referencing PMs) to show where you have kept your money each day? That would potentially really help (or hurt) your case as a member of the Rich.

[Chief Rum]

crippling hangover......

And why would I need to say who did it? I m just ssuming it was him.... as you pointed no one else can rob!

Yeah, I messed up the Thief role with the Financial ANalyst used earlier on The Jackal (in my messed up mind, The Jackal got robbed). Sorry for the confusion.

As I said, being robbed doesn't clear you of being a wolf.

[Alan T]

Was one of the nights Render was around but didn't vote the night there was a three way tie and the wolves couldn't communicate via PM that day? I think I need to go back and see which days Render "missed the vote" on.

[Chief Rum]

why would anyone ever have money in the bank??
The rest (70isg K)

Here...

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

[claphamsa]

Hoops. I will later, Im about to leave for hockey (which is gonna suck royally!)

[claphamsa]

I missed that....

Here...

[Chief Rum]

crippling hangover......

And why would I need to say who did it? I m just ssuming it was him.... as you pointed no one else can rob!

Just to clarify...your PM did not state who robbed you, correct? You're just making the assumption, right?

[Alan T]

Looking back at Render's missed votes, I guess I don't really see anything that makes me feel he is more likely to be a wolf. I remembered the day he was around then disappeared right before deadline then re-appeared right after.. but that was mauboy vs Saldana.. The next missed vote he didn't show up until nearly midnight and that was between Hoops (good), Tyrith , and Jackal (both I am leaning towards being good)..

I don't see anything there that makes me feel Render is more likely to be a wolf..

[Chief Rum]

Render missed the hoops-Jackal showdown, and the mauboy-saldana fight. Not sure which one he was "around" for, but I do remember that was the case (I think he either said he forgot to vote before deadline from playing around with his kids, or he lost his Internet connection, IIRC).

I still think it would be hard to argue a wolf would willingly miss two votes when they need every cent. The only possibility there, IMO (beyond that he is simply telling the truith, whether wolf or villager, about missing the votes) is if the wolves actually had more money to start the game. In that case, they're not so worried about missing votes. Or maybe they get the $15,000 no matter what.

[Alan T]

Render missed the hoops-Jackal showdown, and the mauboy-saldana fight. Not sure which one he was "around" for, but I do remember that was the case (I think he either said he forgot to vote before deadline from playing around with his kids, or he lost his Internet connection, IIRC).

I still think it would be hard to argue a wolf would willingly miss two votes when they need every cent. The only possibility there, IMO (beyond that he is simply telling the truith, whether wolf or villager, about missing the votes) is if the wolves actually had more money to start the game. In that case, they're not so worried about missing votes. Or maybe they get the $15,000 no matter what.


I don't think we can assume the wolves started with the same money as us, but as I said before without having done the math yet, I think right now we are in a better position to try to push this to a traditional WW win and eliminate the wolves all together than taking that risk right now.

I just remembered Render having a very fishy day but didn't remember all of the details. He voted for Cronin whom wasn't playing, acknowledged that he hadn't gotten his vote in yet, and then didn't reappear until after the lynch. After seeing in both cases it was apparently villager vs villager (or in the case of Tyrith and Jackal, I am leaning towards them being villagers), I'm having a hard time acknowledging why he purposely would want to miss the vote. Unless it was a reverse strategy to try to gain trust after seeing our comments about Arles likely being good.

[Barkeep49]

Can you unvote the vote to end the game or not?
Yes.

Can you vote multiple times for it for additional cost?
One vote per person on the ending of the game.

[Alan T]

Who made a case against Schmidty a few days ago and what was the case? At the time he had won the seer and had scanned the person who ended up dead that night (Was that when Saldana died?) correct, then has blamed Hoops since with votes every day?

Is that the only thing or was there more of a case?

[hoopsguy]

One approach we could take to apply pressure on Clap (or any candidate)is to get a runaway vote going on him and see if he is willing to move his cash publicly in advance of the deadline.

Ideally, he should select multiple people that will be around and are willing to consider spending the cash to save him with additional votes if they find this action to suggest he is a good guy.

I think this would be a very tough game of chicken for a wolf when they can be 100% sure of transferring their funds to a fellow wolf privately. They put themselves in a position of depending on the kindness of others if they do it publicly. As long as the cash is distributed to 3+ people, you can pretty much rule out them giving it strictly to wolves publicly and getting bailed out.

I'm not sure that we are at the point of a runaway vote yet with Clap, but I don't think he is in a good position at the moment. And having to depart for hockey on a Sunday night when he is in the middle of being questioned doesn't exactly build trust. Obviously real life gets in the way, but that felt a bit convenient from where I sit.

[hoopsguy]

Who made a case against Schmidty a few days ago and what was the case? At the time he had won the seer and had scanned the person who ended up dead that night (Was that when Saldana died?) correct, then has blamed Hoops since with votes every day?

Is that the only thing or was there more of a case?

I don't think anyone has presented a compelling case against him so far. I can work on putting one together now (voted every day, no money in bank) but I don't think this is the direction I would go with my vote today.

[Alan T]

I don't think anyone has presented a compelling case against him so far. I can work on putting one together now (voted every day, no money in bank) but I don't think this is the direction I would go with my vote today.


I think I am pretty sure that my vote will either be Render, Claphasma or Schmidty. Render already quickly got a vote out there for Claphasma which tells me either:

1) Render + Schmidty are bad and Claphasma isn't.
2) Render + Claphasma is bad and already are concedeing that one of them will likely be killed today, so is trying to force the issue.
3) Claphasma + Schmidty are bad and Render not being bad assumes he has a good shot at voting for one of the two so just takes a potshot vote.

The thing that I am trying to figure with Claphasma is based on the 9k being stolen, and 0 money in the bank.. that is alot of money tied up in CDs.. I would like to hear better accounting for where his money has been daily and how much he has tied up in a CD.. sure if he is good it tells the wolves info about him, but it is info we need.

The thing pushing me away from voting for Claphasma is... if he only has 9k there, and nothing in the bank, Passacaglia seems to not have sent him anything at all before he died if they both are wolves. I assume the wolves were prepared today for the possible end of the game, so if what Chief says is true about money in CDs not counting towards that.. I can't imagine they have any money in a CD at this point.

I guess I have to wait to see if Mr.W collaberates his statement or not.. but if he does, and Claphasma only had 9k stolen and nothing in the bank, I'll likely vote elsewhere (as long as he can give believable accounting of his money up till now.)

[Barkeep49]

Since Chief was either inadvertently or vertently given credit for running this game again I want to just clarify that money in CDs do indeed NOT count towards the final tally.

[Chief Rum]

I think I am pretty sure that my vote will either be Render, Claphasma or Schmidty. Render already quickly got a vote out there for Claphasma which tells me either:

1) Render + Schmidty are bad and Claphasma isn't.
2) Render + Claphasma is bad and already are concedeing that one of them will likely be killed today, so is trying to force the issue.
3) Claphasma + Schmidty are bad and Render not being bad assumes he has a good shot at voting for one of the two so just takes a potshot vote.

The thing that I am trying to figure with Claphasma is based on the 9k being stolen, and 0 money in the bank.. that is alot of money tied up in CDs.. I would like to hear better accounting for where his money has been daily and how much he has tied up in a CD.. sure if he is good it tells the wolves info about him, but it is info we need.

The thing pushing me away from voting for Claphasma is... if he only has 9k there, and nothing in the bank, Passacaglia seems to not have sent him anything at all before he died if they both are wolves. I assume the wolves were prepared today for the possible end of the game, so if what Chief says is true about money in CDs not counting towards that.. I can't imagine they have any money in a CD at this point.

I guess I have to wait to see if Mr.W collaberates his statement or not.. but if he does, and Claphasma only had 9k stolen and nothing in the bank, I'll likely vote elsewhere (as long as he can give believable accounting of his money up till now.)

Well, what if I was the only one to think to ask BK this? If the wolves didn't know, maybe they have been stashing thier money in CDs? And we are all pretty certain more than one wolf is left (and not even counting the conversioN). Perhaps Pass moved his money to the other wolf?

The wolves only get one private move, right? So Pass would have had to move his money in one move, and it could only have gone to one person.

Otherwise, I am with ya on your thoughts above.

[Chief Rum]

Since Chief was either inadvertently or vertently given credit for running this game again I want to just clarify that money in CDs do indeed NOT count towards the final tally.

lol...again?

Trust me, people, my game ended over a week ago. :)

[Chief Rum]

I still have all of my PMs from this game, and have confirmed I asked that question there (privately with BK) and I don't believe I mentioned it since or at all publically. So it is possible no one else knew this at all (that unmatured CDs won't count toward end game).

[Alan T]

lol...again?

Trust me, people, my game ended over a week ago. :)


I think he may have been refering to my comment where I said you stated that info about CDs winning the game or not.. if so I know you aren't running the game, I was just saying if what you said there is correct, then .....


Not that you were running this game :) If this was in regards to something else, well then nevermind me,... nothing to see here :)

[Barkeep49]

I think he may have been refering to my comment where I said you stated that info about CDs winning the game or not.. if so I know you aren't running the game, I was just saying if what you said there is correct, then .....


Not that you were running this game :) If this was in regards to something else, well then nevermind me,... nothing to see here :)
This is indeed what I was referencing. I had found it more amusing than anything else, so this truth takes away from my amusement. Thanks a lot Alan!

[Alan T]

This is indeed what I was referencing. I had found it more amusing than anything else, so this truth takes away from my amusement. Thanks a lot Alan!


Sorry!

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I did not realize that CDs do not count toward wealth calculations for end game. And here I was thinking I was more or less on top of this ruleset ... or at least the financial part of the game.

Maybe I need to adopt's Schmidty's mindset and realize that I suck at this game :) Chief, thanks for publishing that info.

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, I did not realize that CDs do not count toward wealth calculations for end game. And here I was thinking I was more or less on top of this ruleset ... or at least the financial part of the game.

Maybe I need to adopt's Schmidty's mindset and realize that I suck at this game :) Chief, thanks for publishing that info.

Actually in retrospect, I am rather stunned I didn't mention it sooner. Been a bit of a tool with that, haven't I? I should have mentioned it much sooner.

[RendeR]

Chief, I think you've offered up enough to get a good discussion going.

Do any of the people who Chief has suggested did not have money in the bank - Clap, RendeR, Schmidty - want to challenge his claim?


Nope, he's right, I have no money on hand whatsoever to be totally honest with you.

[Chief Rum]

I will be gone all day tomorrow, as is my usual Monday schedule. So I will have to vote now. Fortunately, I would say we have built up at least somewhat of a good case here against a couple people. Hopefully it nabs us a wolf.

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[Tyrith]

Tyrith, did you get a breakdown of assets for The Jackal?

Jackal, can you give us a rundown of how you accumulated 78K in money up to this point? And, if you don't mind since information is out there already, list where you have kept money for each day (in hand, bank, CD)?

No.

[RendeR]

Looking back at Render's missed votes, I guess I don't really see anything that makes me feel he is more likely to be a wolf. I remembered the day he was around then disappeared right before deadline then re-appeared right after.. but that was mauboy vs Saldana.. The next missed vote he didn't show up until nearly midnight and that was between Hoops (good), Tyrith , and Jackal (both I am leaning towards being good)..

I don't see anything there that makes me feel Render is more likely to be a wolf..


I missed votes on days 2 and 3 due to work interfering with my ability to screw off online and get paid for it =)

Sorry guys, nothing covert going on there, I just didn't get votes in early and got screwed by getting busy at the lab. Would have enjoyed having that extra 30k in my pocket too =(

[Tyrith]

Clap, I don't have a clue. I'll probably play follow the leader in that regard.

Friday I got a bad feeling about Schmidty. His day 3 play, while all too Schmidty, is also a perfect cover for putting a vote on a really good villager player in that situation and trying to create the situation that almost happened. The day 4 vote helped to mask that and go with the forlorn hope that maybe we'd try to kill hoops again. And his comments towards pass in day 3....a scheme, perhaps, to make us feel like idiots for looking at him? That last thing makes a very suspicious case in my mind. That's just too convenient.

[claphamsa]

One approach we could take to apply pressure on Clap (or any candidate)is to get a runaway vote going on him and see if he is willing to move his cash publicly in advance of the deadline.

Ideally, he should select multiple people that will be around and are willing to consider spending the cash to save him with additional votes if they find this action to suggest he is a good guy.

I think this would be a very tough game of chicken for a wolf when they can be 100% sure of transferring their funds to a fellow wolf privately. They put themselves in a position of depending on the kindness of others if they do it publicly. As long as the cash is distributed to 3+ people, you can pretty much rule out them giving it strictly to wolves publicly and getting bailed out.

I'm not sure that we are at the point of a runaway vote yet with Clap, but I don't think he is in a good position at the moment. And having to depart for hockey on a Sunday night when he is in the middle of being questioned doesn't exactly build trust. Obviously real life gets in the way, but that felt a bit convenient from where I sit.

you sir are paranoid!

[claphamsa]

Just to clarify...your PM did not state who robbed you, correct? You're just making the assumption, right?
just said I woke up with no money on hand.

[claphamsa]

Im confused as to waht case you are talkig about here....

other that I got robbed and you all may not belive this....

no one has presented even crapppy evidence agasint me!
I will be gone all day tomorrow, as is my usual Monday schedule. So I will have to vote now. Fortunately, I would say we have built up at least somewhat of a good case here against a couple people. Hopefully it nabs us a wolf.

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

[claphamsa]

Ok,

everyone wants me to accout for my money....

And to save you all froim doing somethign stupid and voting me off...

start with 30K Kept half on hand half into a 3 day CD (to make monwy so we can win)
I voted so I got another 15 K

I kept it all on hand (so i could bid and what not) (I have 15 K in CDs and 30 K on hand now)

I voted day 2 as well. I lost my bid. so I have 45 K at the begnign of day 3.
(1 more night for the CDs)

day 3 I vote. CDs mature My 15 K CD is now worth 19965 and I have 64965 on hand. I take 45K and put it into a 1 day CD.

I vote again I have another 15K and my cd is now worth 47250 (or so im told)
I now ihave 82215. I put 75K into a 1 day CD (shoulda put it all in)

my W (I assume) steals my on hand money I now have a 78750 on hand

I hope you are all happy, now the wolves no how much i have and I fully expect to die tongiht!

[Chief Rum]

I already explained who wolves would have zero money in the bank to you just above here, didn't I? You even responded and acknowledged it.

Well, read my next post on that, the one where I talk about who has no money in the bank and compare it to the "distrust lists" of both hoops and Alan.

It's no smoking gun, sure, but best we have got so far. It certainly doesn't make you or Schmidty look good. It doesn't make me look good either, but hopefully people will see I wouldn't come out with this information otherwise.

Do you deny having no money in the bank at the end of Day Four? Render has already said he has no money there, and although he didn't say anything, I essentially let another guy know I saw he had no money in the bank, and he didn't protest it either.

So if you agree I am not lying there, do you see what I am saying about the suspicion of having no money in the bank? Only wolves would keep no money in the bank at this point, at least of the funds they have available to them (not in CDs).

So, now, there is more than "crappy evidence" available, even if it's circumstantial.

[claphamsa]

Now htat we are done with my grilling, why does evrryone trust Hoops? he has been leadign us around by the nose, and really contributing nothing... Somehow being the beneficarey the first day has made evryone belive he is good.

(My hockey team lost and it looks the the rich are gonna lose so im pissed!)

[Chief Rum]

Ok,

everyone wants me to accout for my money....

And to save you all froim doing somethign stupid and voting me off...

start with 30K Kept half on hand half into a 3 day CD (to make monwy so we can win)
I voted so I got another 15 K

I kept it all on hand (so i could bid and what not) (I have 15 K in CDs and 30 K on hand now)

I voted day 2 as well. I lost my bid. so I have 45 K at the begnign of day 3.
(1 more night for the CDs)

day 3 I vote. CDs mature My 15 K CD is now worth 19965 and I have 64965 on hand. I take 45K and put it into a 1 day CD.

I vote again I have another 15K and my cd is now worth 47250 (or so im told)
I now ihave 82215. I put 75K into a 1 day CD (shoulda put it all in)

my W (I assume) steals my on hand money I now have a 78750 on hand

I hope you are all happy, now the wolves no how much i have and I fully expect to die tongiht!

How do you have your CD money on hand? You put the $75K in the 1 Day CD after Day Four's vote. You won't get that money back until after Monday night's deadline. You should have nothing right now.

Also 82215-75K is $7,215, not $9,000. Unless you're saying Mr.Wednesday is lying. Sorry, no way, Wednesday even approximates $7K & change as &9K.

[Chief Rum]

Now htat we are done with my grilling, why does evrryone trust Hoops? he has been leadign us around by the nose, and really contributing nothing... Somehow being the beneficarey the first day has made evryone belive he is good.

(My hockey team lost and it looks the the rich are gonna lose so im pissed!)

Actually Alan checked him out as the seer two nights ago and he came up good. See Day Four.

He could have been converted last night, of course, but, like Alan says, if we open that can of worms without getting the original wolves right now, we might as well just give them the game.

[Chief Rum]

All right, I have to go to bed. Hopefully you guys can sort all this out. See you tomorrow (if I am still alive).

[Alan T]

Based on what Claphasma gave us for his accounting, this is what I end up with:

Day 1: 15k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (2 days left), 0 in bank
Day 2: 30k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (1 day left), 0 in bank
Day 3: 45k on hand + 15k in 3 day cd matures = 19965 total = 64965 onhand, 0 in bank, 0 in CD

Takes 45k into 1 day cd, leaves 19965 on hand

Day 4:
CD matures = 47250+ 19965 on hand + 15k for vote = 82215 on hand, 0 in bank, 0 in cd

Put 75k into a 1 day CD = 7215 left on hand, 0 in bank..



Based off of the numbers Barkeep gave earlier in the game for how much interest each CD pays off, the numbers on the CDs add up. The two discrepencies that I find are:

1) 9k was stolen, but this says you would only have 7215 available to be stolen.
2) Your CD that you opened last night shouldn't be available to you today.. You shouldn't have any money on hand currently.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, how much did you bid for the seer on the night you lost it?

[Alan T]

Slow morning so far!

[hoopsguy]

It is also inconvenient that all money is tied up in a CD, which means that he can not pass the money out to other players publicly as a show of good faith.

It doesn't mean that it isn't true, but it is definitely inconvenient for him and those of us trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Tyrith]

The little move to try to get us to distrust hoops smells like a desperate attempt to deflect attention. He smells really bad. This vote is pretty obvious.

I will not be around much today because I have a test at 7, although I'll probably check it at some point this afternoon and be back half an hour to an hour before the lynch.

VOTE CLAPHASMA

[claphamsa]

Based on what Claphasma gave us for his accounting, this is what I end up with:

Day 1: 15k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (2 days left), 0 in bank
Day 2: 30k on hand, 15k in 3 day cd (1 day left), 0 in bank
Day 3: 45k on hand + 15k in 3 day cd matures = 19965 total = 64965 onhand, 0 in bank, 0 in CD

Takes 45k into 1 day cd, leaves 19965 on hand

Day 4:
CD matures = 47250+ 19965 on hand + 15k for vote = 82215 on hand, 0 in bank, 0 in cd

Put 75k into a 1 day CD = 7215 left on hand, 0 in bank..



Based off of the numbers Barkeep gave earlier in the game for how much interest each CD pays off, the numbers on the CDs add up. The two discrepencies that I find are:

1) 9k was stolen, but this says you would only have 7215 available to be stolen.
2) Your CD that you opened last night shouldn't be available to you today.. You shouldn't have any money on hand currently.
im counting it as available when I can use it... and since there isnothing to use it on, yes you are right!

[claphamsa]

Im not trying to get u to trust him, just pointing out that there is no reasonto belive he is good.

[claphamsa]

ill check my spreadsheet to fugureout why im 2K off. but then again I already have 4 votes so it really doesnt matter....

[hoopsguy]

Clap, this is why I want to have the discussion as early as possible - to prevent this from becoming a runaway.

We've got votes, and money for extra votes, that can be spent to save you if we realize that we are making a tragic mistake. I don't think you are the only person that deserves scrutiny today, even though it seems to be playing out this way.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, if the Wolves spend money successfully bribe a person, what happens to that money? Does it disappear from the game? Do the wolves keep that money?

[Alan T]

During the game the Cutthroats will have the chance to bribe a player or players. If they meet the asking price for a player, that player will be converted to the cutthroat side and the money removed from the game. If the bribe attempt fails that player gets to keep the attempted bribe.




Money looks to be removed from the game.

[The Jackal]

OK, I'm caught up. I see no one is too fond of my end game strategy. I accumlated my money by putting 10 grand in a 3 day CD on the first day, and simply voting every day (except the one), and not bidding on/winning any services. I don't think it's relevant where my money is except to the wolves, so unless more than one of you are interested, I think I'll keep that info to myself.

I see there's a bit of a run on clap, but I still encourage you to think about ending the game in this phase.. I'm pretty sure we'd have more money, unless they've bribed multiple people.

[Alan T]

OK, I'm caught up. I see no one is too fond of my end game strategy. I accumlated my money by putting 10 grand in a 3 day CD on the first day, and simply voting every day (except the one), and not bidding on/winning any services. I don't think it's relevant where my money is except to the wolves, so unless more than one of you are interested, I think I'll keep that info to myself.

I see there's a bit of a run on clap, but I still encourage you to think about ending the game in this phase.. I'm pretty sure we'd have more money, unless they've bribed multiple people.


I am really unsure in regards to this approach. I think I need more convincing before I jump into perhaps the riskiest move of the game for us. Right now we appear to be in the driver seat, it feels that the only real likely way we lose right now is to jump in and end the game when we have less money than them.

I think I will need convincing that someone has some pretty decent idea of how much money the wolves started with or an idea of how to figure that out. Until we know that piece of the puzzle, I think this is a risky move, one that could lose the game for us.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, if the Wolves spend money successfully bribe a person, what happens to that money? Does it disappear from the game? Do the wolves keep that money?

Alan is correct. Money used in a bribe goes away. Unsuccessful bribes, however, stay with the person who they attempted to bribe.

[claphamsa]

Clap, this is why I want to have the discussion as early as possible - to prevent this from becoming a runaway.

We've got votes, and money for extra votes, that can be spent to save you if we realize that we are making a tragic mistake. I don't think you are the only person that deserves scrutiny today, even though it seems to be playing out this way.
I disagree.. I had 3 votes before I even said anything,. this was a run set up by he wolves.

[The Jackal]

I am really unsure in regards to this approach. I think I need more convincing before I jump into perhaps the riskiest move of the game for us. Right now we appear to be in the driver seat, it feels that the only real likely way we lose right now is to jump in and end the game when we have less money than them.

I think I will need convincing that someone has some pretty decent idea of how much money the wolves started with or an idea of how to figure that out. Until we know that piece of the puzzle, I think this is a risky move, one that could lose the game for us.

The main thing I was going off was that the less people there are without killing multiple cutthroats, the likelier they'll have an equal amount of money. If we don't want to run with it and would rather take our chances in a later endgame, that's alright. It's definitely a risky move.

[hoopsguy]

Given that the bribe money leaves the game, I'm more inclined to join with Jackal in moving for an end game.

Could it lose us the game? Yep, but we could also lose the game playing standard werewolf with the conversion coming into play. I think this is a real possibility if Clap is a hapless villager instead of a cunning member of the Rich.

After running numbers yesterday I believed we were 200K ahead if the ratio right now is 8-3. This was without factoring in that the wolves would have had to burn money on the bribe. Would they bother taking a chance on a bribe for anything less than 100K?

If they tried 80K and failed, that is a 160K swing in the overall money. But for 100K they know they bring someone over.

[hoopsguy]

Continuing this thought, I'm expecting we are up close to 300K if the following is true:
- started with 3 wolves
- wolves started with same money as villagers
- wolves didn't get a bargain basement bribe on Night 4

Now these probably are not all true. But do you expect there are enough differences to erase 300K?

[SnDvls]

VOTE END GAME

I think this one is about over in favor of us good guys.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I see you reading the thread ... there isn't that much to catch up on today.

What is your confidence level that we have a wolf in Clap? 50%? If higher, how much higher?

Do you think there are big fundamental flaws in my money analysis from yesterday and today? I know you were looking to run the numbers on this today, based on your post last night.

[Alan T]

Continuing this thought, I'm expecting we are up close to 300K if the following is true:
- started with 3 wolves
- wolves started with same money as villagers
- wolves didn't get a bargain basement bribe on Night 4

Now these probably are not all true. But do you expect there are enough differences to erase 300K?


Another thing to consider is whether or not either side has people with money in CDs which do not count towards the end amount. I just think there are too many variables right now that factor in to make this decision seem like a sound one to me. I have a hard time believing that a game would be set up with a day 4 pretty sure fire win for our side.

If the game started out with 15 villagers, and 3 wolves. We assume the bribe breaks even from what we have discussed thus far ($100k cost to swing over roughly 100k worth of money).

So assuming pretty conservative amounts of growth daily and assuming that the wolves spent some money on services (As of yet, the only service I know that they have won was Passacaglia won Friend of the bank which was for a very tiny amount)...


Each day's growth is based on assuming everyone voted and 50% of money on each side was put into 1 day CDs:

Day 1 - Villagers 450k , Wolves 90k (15 villagers , 3 wolves)

Day 2 - Villagers 656,025 , Wolves 137,025 (13 villagers, 3 wolves)

Day 3 - Villagers 837425, wolves 185,450 (11 villagers, 3 wolves)

Day 4 - Villagers 993360 , wolves 235086 (9 villagers, 3 wolves)


Of course in our game, we've had a wolf found, and it appears the villagers have spent more money on services than the wolves. I think I can agree with what people are saying.. if the wolves started with the same amount of money that we did, then of course no contest.. we should have lots more money, no brainer lets end the game today..

Do we really think that Barkeep made a "broken" game though where there really was never a chance for the wolves to win? I am sorry, but I find it very hard to believe that they started with the same amount as us. I think what is likely is that they started with some form of advantage at the start to "even the playing field".

Right now Jackal is trying to convince us to vote to end the game on a hunch. I need better solid data points to be convinced.

[claphamsa]

Given that the bribe money leaves the game, I'm more inclined to join with Jackal in moving for an end game.

Could it lose us the game? Yep, but we could also lose the game playing standard werewolf with the conversion coming into play. I think this is a real possibility if Clap is a hapless villager instead of a cunning member of the Rich.


if only it wasnt too late for me :(

[Alan T]

Alan, I see you reading the thread ... there isn't that much to catch up on today.

What is your confidence level that we have a wolf in Clap? 50%? If higher, how much higher?

Do you think there are big fundamental flaws in my money analysis from yesterday and today? I know you were looking to run the numbers on this today, based on your post last night.


I think I must have been posting at the same time you asked this of me. My confidence that Claphasma is a wolf going into today probably was 40-50% considering that I had a group of three in Render, Schmidty, Claphasma that I felt there was likely two wolves within. Even if only one of the three were a wolf, and another wolf slid into my slight trust group of Jackal or Sndvls, that still is a 33% chance.

Based on Claphasma's answers today , or better yet how he answered, I think my confidence that he is a wolf has gone even higher. In a normal game, I would have voted Claphasma long ago. Only reason I haven't yet this game is due to no unvotes. He hasn't really improved my confidence any at all, and I would probably feel its better than 50% chance now that he is a wolf.

As for whether or not there is a fundamental flaw in your figuring the money, I think my biggest point I have regarding ending the game is how can anyone make an approximation to how much money the wolves may have. We know Passacaglia was Path's beneficiary. It didn't appear that they received much if any money from the other night kills based on what you said. I think for me it comes down to one of two possibilities: 1) Either your math totals are flawed to how much money they started with.. or 2) Barkeep has a flawed game...

[hoopsguy]

OK, here are my thoughts on Clap. I'll put the % of him as a wolf at 50, which is a pretty high number at this stage in the game without any real reveal or smoking gun.

I'll also assume we have an 8-3 lead, and that one of the wolves is going to be harder to ferret out down the stretch.

If we are wrong today and they get another night kill (not a sure thing, given that there is a bodyguard up for bid, correct?) then it moves to 6-3.

There is a chance - not sure how high - that the wolves could complete another bribe. I'm hoping that isn't the case, but if it is then we could be looking at a 5-4 game starting tomorrow with two conversions in the mix. That would be a nightmare to play out.

Scenario #1 (Clap = Wolf): we are in complete control of the game, barring another conversion

Scenario #2 (Clap = Villager): we are going to have a challenging game down the stretch

Scenario #3 (Clap = Villager, plus conversion, think this is worst case): we are hosed

There are additional variables, such as the night kill, the "no lynch" power purchased N1 that add another dimension to this process. So I think it is hard to really weigh how all of these shake out. But my larger point is that we may not be in as strong a position for a conventional werewolf game as we would like to believe at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

For the record, I'm also comfortable with the idea that I'm going to be perceived as trying to "save" Clap by encouraging discussion of our options.

I don't know if he is Cutthroat or Rich, but I'm sure there will be attempts to spin my position if he is lynched as a Cutthroat. So be it - I want to make sure we aren't rushing to judgement when multiple options are available to us today. Tomorrow, with lynch results + night kill + player kill ability for bid + (low?) potential for 2nd conversion could be a wildly different set of circumstances ... in either direction.

[Alan T]

There are additional variables, such as the night kill, the "no lynch" power purchased N1 that add another dimension to this process. So I think it is hard to really weigh how all of these shake out. But my larger point is that we may not be in as strong a position for a conventional werewolf game as we would like to believe at the moment.


In the various scenerios, how would delaying calling end game a day play out?

I think if various people are correct, that the wolves started with 30k only.. it really doesn't matter which day we end the game does it? We should have a substantial lead for the next few days or probably rest of the game.

So on these assumptions, lets go with the general idea that the wolves did start out with an advantage here.. how does delaying end of game here play out for us?

If we do not end the game today and Claphasma is a wolf, what does it mean? Normally we would say that Claphasma would likely have passed his money on to other wolves today.. but does he have any money to pass? I don't believe we have heard from Mr.W today regarding what happened with the thief action last night.. (did he indeed hit claphasma, how much money did he get, etc).. Chief Rum already said there was none in the bank.. Does that mean the rest is tied up in a CD? I don't recall one way or another, can wolves transfer CDs during the day behind the scenes?

If Claphasma is a villager, we have to assume he is telling us the truth regarding not having any money left on hand, and the money he has in a CD would be lost.. That amount in itself isn't close to be able to erase the lead that you projected we had. (300k lead?)

The next question comes into the night kill choice.. Like I mentioned earlier, in past night kills the evidence seemed to suggest that the wolves see very little if any of that money..

It just doesn't feel to me like we have our backs against the wall regarding needing to end the game to win today. it feels to me far riskier to take the chance on ending the game, than to let things play out longer. We can always change our mind tommorrow if Claphasma ends up being a villager. Like I said though, right now I would guess more likely than not he is a wolf currently based on today's play.

[Alan T]

For the record, I'm also comfortable with the idea that I'm going to be perceived as trying to "save" Clap by encouraging discussion of our options.

I don't know if he is Cutthroat or Rich, but I'm sure there will be attempts to spin my position if he is lynched as a Cutthroat. So be it - I want to make sure we aren't rushing to judgement when multiple options are available to us today. Tomorrow, with lynch results + night kill + player kill ability for bid + (low?) potential for 2nd conversion could be a wildly different set of circumstances ... in either direction.


I felt my belief regarding conversions thus far was that the wolves likely had to spend 100k to ensure a conversion, and likely aren't getting much more than 100k back if even that much. So even if there is a chance at a second conversion, I still don't think it would be enough to overcome your perceived lead that we have.

I think the safe play for us to make is lynch Claphasma today, if he is a wolf, we re-evaluate tommorrow. If he is a villager then we didn't really hurt ourselves much in today's phase as his CD wouldn't count to end game total anyways today and he has no other money supposedly.

[hoopsguy]

I think we need to hear from MrW on Clap's money. If he is confirming that only 7-9K was on hand, in conjunction with Chief's claim on an empty bank account then that only leaves money in the CD.

Does it make sense for wolf Clap (one of two, if assumptions are correct) to have stashed his money into CDs at this point in the game? That means that one wolf won't be able to influence votes or bid on services - they might want the seer at this stage in the game, or an extra night kill ...

This has been gnawing at me and it is why I'm not in a rush to vote for Clap. If he has played as a wolf, then it has been one with poor money management skills when there was a team that should have been able to strategize together on these points.

[claphamsa]

OK, here are my thoughts on Clap. I'll put the % of him as a wolf at 50, which is a pretty high number at this stage in the game without any real reveal or smoking gun.

I'll also assume we have an 8-3 lead, and that one of the wolves is going to be harder to ferret out down the stretch.

If we are wrong today and they get another night kill (not a sure thing, given that there is a bodyguard up for bid, correct?) then it moves to 6-3.

There is a chance - not sure how high - that the wolves could complete another bribe. I'm hoping that isn't the case, but if it is then we could be looking at a 5-4 game starting tomorrow with two conversions in the mix. That would be a nightmare to play out.

Scenario #1 (Clap = Wolf): we are in complete control of the game, barring another conversion

Scenario #2 (Clap = Villager): we are going to have a challenging game down the stretch

Scenario #3 (Clap = Villager, plus conversion, think this is worst case): we are hosed

There are additional variables, such as the night kill, the "no lynch" power purchased N1 that add another dimension to this process. So I think it is hard to really weigh how all of these shake out. But my larger point is that we may not be in as strong a position for a conventional werewolf game as we would like to believe at the moment.
we hsould have gambling here... I bet 100K you were the conversion.... most logical choice... we KNOW someone was converted..... you have the most money... (I think)

[Alan T]

He doesn't appear to be responding in kind to your love Hoops :)

His last post is what I am referring to.. instead of responding to the holes in his statements, he is trying to shift the attention elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if he is Rich that takes away about 80K of assets from the Rich, which most definitely cuts into our lead. Similarly, it takes away 15K that we would get today from his vote. So that pulls about 100K away from the Rich if we are making a mistake.

Night kill - the assets are going to be passed somewhere. They may stay with the Rich, they may transfer to the Cutthroats.

2nd Night kill (purchased) - same process as above.

So there is absolutely a chance that we are going to see significant movement on our ability to win the game through the money option.

A second conversion, if they have that option, potentially deprives us of the ability to get 60% of the votes to end the game by selecting the money option. Again, I'm not putting much stock in this but I do think it is in the realm of possibility.

[Alan T]

So basically we're back to gambling over how much money the wolves started with then? I can see where you are coming from, I just feel very uneasy voting to end the game when we have no idea what will happen when things feel pretty good today as far as a small list to vote for.

You and I both know I've been wrong probably more times than I have been right in these games, so I may be wrong on Claphasma here too... but you have to admit seeing where I am coming from in my thoughts on him at this point.

I think I'm going to spend a little time trying to see if I can match up who bought what services through the game so we can have an idea of how much money wolves have or may have spent on services vs us.

[hoopsguy]

He doesn't appear to be responding in kind to your love Hoops :)

His last post is what I am referring to.. instead of responding to the holes in his statements, he is trying to shift the attention elsewhere.

Yeah, I'm a little confused by his approach too - but that doesn't mean he is a Cutthroat.

I'm a very, very happy guy if he is a Cutthroat and we lynch him at the end of the day. I've been wrong in games before, I'll be wrong again. It won't hurt my pride or anything like that. I'm just trying to assess risk with this vote, and right now Clap feels like a fairly significant risk because of what we understand about his finances. Unless there are more wolves than I figure, I don't understand why they would bury their money in CDs today. Having some fluidity among their assets would seem to be important if the vote is going the wrong way. Then again, Pass didn't have money available at the deadline ... (sigh) who knows? Should make for some interesting post-game discussion.

[hoopsguy]

I think I'm going to spend a little time trying to see if I can match up who bought what services through the game so we can have an idea of how much money wolves have or may have spent on services vs us.

I tried to account for this in my initial work on the subject yesterday. I'll dig up the post number if you want it. Obviously there is a lot of guesswork out there, starting with which side spent 30K (and won) on Day 1 for the no-bankrupt option.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, just to confirm - can wolves privately pass money tied up in a CD between each other?

If not, I don't think that the wolves would want to tie up the majority of their assets in this way at any point in the game. Let alone during mid/end game as they accrue more assets.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, just to confirm - can wolves privately pass money tied up in a CD between each other?
No they may not. Money in a CD is inaccessible for Cutthroats and Rich alike.

[Alan T]

This is based on my current personal trust lists:

Villagers:
7500 - Lathum
21455 - Alan
12500 - Chief
38500 - Alan
40002 - Mr.W
5000 - Chief
10107 - Tyrith

Total: 135064

Wolves:
$7 or $51 - Passacaglia (Friend at the Bank)

Total: $7 - $51


Unknown:
$7 or $51 - Friend at the Bank
$30000 - Govt Insider
$2500 - Bodyguard
$25000 - Schmidty (Private Investigator)
$66000 - Wiretapper
$25005 - Notary Public

TOtal: Appx 148505

Day 1:
($7 - ? ) Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
($7500 - Lathum?) Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of 1 player. Must be used night 1.
($30000 - ? ) Government Insider: May avoid bankruptcy one time. This will be used automatically and is not given to your beneficiary upon death.

Day 2:
($51 - ?) Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
($2500 - ?) Bodyguard Firm: Winning player protected from attacks. Must be used Night 2.
($25000 - Schmidty) Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of 1 player. Must be used night 2.
($21455 - Alan) Telecommunications Mogul: May choose on Day 3 to either block all Cutthroat communication, or to allow all players PM rights.

Day 3:

(12500 - Chief Rum) Bodyguard Firm: May choose 1 player to be protected from attacks. May be used any night.
(38500 - Alan) Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of a player on each of two nights. Must be used night 3 & 4.
(40002 - Mr.Wednesday ) Thief: May choose to rob a player’s on hand OR Bank Account. May be used any night, but is not given to your beneficiary upon death.

Day 4:
(5000 - Chief RUm) Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
(66000 - ? ) Wiretapper: Receives 20% of all money from successful auction bids on Days 4 & 5.
(25005 - ?) Notary Public: May change the beneficiary on another player’s will (without their knowledge). Must be used by Night 6.
(10107 - Tyrith) Financial Analyst: Will learn the total money of 1 player. Must be used night 4.

I wasn't sure which day Passacaglia won the Friend at the Bank, nor am I sure who won the other day. We don't know who won the Govt Insider, but I think that could easily have been won by a wolf. Same with Wiretapper or Notary Public. I can see a case for either side wanting to bid on those. We don't know what side Schmidty is on or his PI bid earlier in the game, the only one of the unknown collumn that I feel likely is a villager bid was the bodyguard.

After looking all of this up, I don't think it really tells me much of anything. We only have a confirmed $51 max that wolves have bid on, but it seems likely that they -could- have gotten other services and we just don't know it...

[Alan T]

I don't know.. I think I am sold in my head on Claphasma being a wolf. Your question regarding why he has money tied up in a CD is valid though.. Perhaps he is the one with the Govt Insider role.. and knows that he would live through today, so the money there wouldn't be at risk. Perhaps Chief is right that the wolves didn't know that CDs don't count to the end game amount either. Of course this entire line of thinking is a decent arguement against my point of waiting to end the game.

I just think the arguement for Render not being a wolf is stronger in my head than Claphasma. The only other place I would consider voting would be Schmidty, but we haven't really looked at him too much at all up till now.

[hoopsguy]

At this point I won't be voting for Clap for the following reasons:
1.) Pass should have transferred money to other wolves at the end of Day 4, assuming he had money. Given Alan's list of services purchased, the only way he wouldn't have had some money (remember, he inherited Path's money) is if it was all in CDs. Hmm, not buying that one.
2.) The money transferred would not have gone into CDs prior to other night actions completing (don't know this for sure)
3.) MrW cleaned out Clap's on-hand money
4.) Chief says Clap had no on-hand money
5.) Since all of Clap's money is stuck in CD's, he can't use it for extra votes, bidding on services, or to transfer in the event he is in a bad position today

Time to take a look at SnDvls.

[hoopsguy]

Summary of Important Posts

BK, this is a nice idea that I wish had some content :) Now time to go dig up Day 2 and 3 stuff ...

[Alan T]

BK, this is a nice idea that I wish had some content :) Now time to go dig up Day 2 and 3 stuff ...


I am pretty sure it is BK's way of saying that nothing we have posted so far this game is that important. :eek:

[hoopsguy]

Well, this seems like the randomness of a Day 1 vote, with the pressure of a Later-than-Day-1 vote. I'm looking at SnDvls. It was his post that led us to think that DT hadn't voted, plus he's doubled up his vengeance vote on mau, which just pings my radar a little.

VOTE SNDVLS

Here is Passacaglia's Day 2 vote for SnDvls. At the time it created a five-way tie with one vote each. Not exactly a pressure vote at the time, especially after I came out and said that SnDvls wasn't the reason I believed DT had not voted (but instead it was the Day 1 recap of votes).

A little more pressure was applied later when another vote came on SnDvls, but Pass was spinning the next day that Tyrith (who I think was the 4th vote on another candidate, with 2nd and 3rd being dead villagers Mauboy and Saldana) was trying to save SnDvls. He said he didn't suspect either SnDvls or Tyrith, but voted Tyrith on Day 3.

[hoopsguy]

I am pretty sure it is BK's way of saying that nothing we have posted so far this game is that important. :eek:

It is even underlined, as if to give off the appearance of a hyperlink. But ... nothing.

[Barkeep49]

BK, this is a nice idea that I wish had some content :) Now time to go dig up Day 2 and 3 stuff ...
Yeah maintaining that post, which I think IS important, is not one of my strengths as a GM. Sorry.

[Barkeep49]

It is even underlined, as if to give off the appearance of a hyperlink. But ... nothing.
I've edited it so as not to taunt you any longer :).

[Alan T]

Here is Passacaglia's Day 2 vote for SnDvls. At the time it created a five-way tie with one vote each. Not exactly a pressure vote at the time, especially after I came out and said that SnDvls wasn't the reason I believed DT had not voted (but instead it was the Day 1 recap of votes).

A little more pressure was applied later when another vote came on SnDvls, but Pass was spinning the next day that Tyrith (who I think was the 4th vote on another candidate, with 2nd and 3rd being dead villagers Mauboy and Saldana) was trying to save SnDvls. He said he didn't suspect either SnDvls or Tyrith, but voted Tyrith on Day 3.

Perhaps I am remembering the conversation wrong, but my memory seems to remember Passacaglia trying to get myself and a couple of others to buy into the Sndvls arguement, and then even openly suggested that I was trying to protect Sndvls by simply not agreeing with his viewpoint of the events. After it was obvious that he wasn't getting any traction with Sndvls, he went with Tyrith instead (after you suggested you were looking at him that day).

This is my sole reason for not lumping Sndvls in the grouping of today's suspects. If I am rememberring incorrectly, that could change.. but since I am leaving in 14 minutes, I don't really have time to go hunt down those posts right now. I think I am remembering the entire interaction correctly though.

[hoopsguy]

I'll spend some time on this as well tonight. I've got kid duties for the next few hours, so I probably won't be able to lock in on this until at least 7PM (CST).

I had speculated last night that SnDvls and Clap were unlikely to be on the same team as wolves, given their identical votes on Days 2 and 3 in races between villagers (known for D2, presumed for D3). So if I'm not buying Clap as a wolf today then I'm going to need to see something compelling to dissuade me from SnDvls tonight.

If someone has time to dig into the D2 flow of posts around Pass/SnDvls, as well as comments by Pass on SnDvls/Tyrithon D3 that would be great. Otherwise, I'll get to it when I'm back online.

[Alan T]

I'm sorry Hoops, I just can't be sure that I will be able to get on again tonight. I think there are 4 votes on Claphasma already, so mine probably puts him away here but I just can't risk missing out on the 15k from the vote by not getting back tonight.

Vote Claphasma

[Mr. Wednesday]

Sorry for the late arrival today. I've been really busy, but I should have time now to catch up on things.

First things first: Because I was interested in the Chief Rum - claphamsa axis (where clap's vote on Passacaglia created a tie), I elected to steal the on-hand cash from claphamsa. I only got $9k from him, which in and of itself doesn't seem particularly unusual, but may indicate something when we add in his bank total.

My guess would be twofold: A) we're at the point where we can vote to end the game, and if he can move his money away, it does the wolves more good to keep that money in the fold with them than to keep himself alive for another day; and B) for exactly what you're doing--put suspicion on a villager and get you guys to bankrupt me while the wolves live another day.

Any move by the wolves that bankrupts a villager is +EV, as long as it costs less to bankrupt him than he had on hand. From the wolves point of view, it's up in the air whether you get voted off the next day, as the evidence is purely circumstantial (and not particularly damning at that, I found it interesting and somewhat suspicious, but not even certain enough to make you my trial-by-theft target); there's still a lot of uncertainty, plus there's a $30k swing in money simply by having another wolf collecting the vote salary vs. another villager.

For all of those reasons, it would have been a reasonable play for Pass to spend $20k to move the vote. Not to mention that it would have cost another $20k to undo the action.

[Mr. Wednesday]

BTW, did everyone already know that you can sue your money in the bank on votes, bids, etc. or am I just late to the game? I realized I didn't know for sure Friday night and asked Barkeep via PM, and he said money on hand AND in the bank can be used for bidding.

Since only money on hand can be taken directly by the wolves via killing, any villager who knows this would have kept their available money (non-CD) in the bank. So anyone with "0" in the bank at any point (especially on nights they don't win a service) has to be a little more suspicious.

And, of course, I know who had 0 in their accounts as of the end of Day Four, FWIW.

I agree with this as far as anybody who wasn't confused about how money in the bank could be used. That was actually my main reason for going hard after the thief, because if the cutthroats had gotten him he could have been used to threaten the otherwise-relatively-safe money in the bank (relatively because it comes down to your beneficiary should you should be killed).

[Mr. Wednesday]

Alan, bear with me, because this points at you.

Let's say clap is telling the truth AND that there is no service or ability by anyone (wolf or villager) who can rob another player except the Thief.

That means Mr. Wednesday is lying.
And since he said Mr. Wednesday is good, that means Alan is lying.
And since Alan said hoopsguy is good, technically, even that's not safe.

Unlikely, yes, but I had to throw it out there.

I am much more inclined to guess clap is lying or go after Schmidty right now than bark up this unlikely tree.


I thought it was pretty obvious from what I posted during the past night cycle that I was going to rob from someone's on-hand cash in an attempt to catch a cutthroat.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Now htat we are done with my grilling, why does evrryone trust Hoops? he has been leadign us around by the nose, and really contributing nothing... Somehow being the beneficarey the first day has made evryone belive he is good.
Uh, rather more than that. Alan has also given him a seer vouch.

[claphamsa]

vote someone... just in case i live!

[DaddyTorgo]

I will vote later...prolly around 8pm or something. We're having bean soup for dinner and somehow I doubt that will satisfy me so I anticipate a post-dinner food run.

[Tyrith]

I see hoops logic in not killing the poor wolf. All I can say is that this game does allow for some crazy stunts, and I still don't like Schmidty. I will not likely be back before the lynch.

[Barkeep49]

Current tally:
Clap – Render (1229), Chief Rum (1289), Tyrith (1306), Alan (1349)

[claphamsa]

go me!

[DaddyTorgo]

not a fan of voting for clap, even if it's a runaway.

[SnDvls]

I've got no problems discussion your other canidates, but won't discuss me because there is nothing to discuss about me I'm good.

there are 4 names that jump out at me from the voting from yesterday and all 4 were within 10-12 posts of each other.

Tyrith, Clap, Path & Jackyl

they even paired up in their votes so I'd bet we have 2 wolves in this group is my thinking.

discuss??

going back to my post from a while back. We know of the path/Jackyl pair path was good so I can vote Jackyl again, but it looks like it's a run away on someone from my second pair Clap. So am I willing to take a chance on Clap being the wolf in the Clap/Tyrith pair is my next question?...either way I think these are the two remaining "original" wolves then we have to find the convert and I've got a pretty good "hunch" on that person too.

now I need to look at the voting history of these three

[SnDvls]

I really have no problem with this vote...it's 50/50 for me on who to vote out (clap vs tyrith) and if we're wrong I'd say it's a 100% shot that the other is a wolf along w/ Jackyl in my thinking/anaylsis

vote clap

[claphamsa]

booo

[hoopsguy]

What do you all think of SnDvls? There was a small bit of heat on him, but then moves toward mau and sal (both good) showed up. Off to verify that.

It may not have been heat, but he was the lead vote-getter for at least a little while. My thinking was that it was Tyrith and clap who put the votes to make it 4-2-2. Clap had two votes on him, so I could see his vote as self-defense, but Tyrith was the one who gave mauboy the lead. Now I'm off to see what hoops had to say about Tyrith -- it didn't seem to convince me before, but this makes me think it's worth another look (or maybe another reiteration, hoops?)

I was the lead vote getter because you voted for me (wrongly I might add as it was pointed out to you just after your vote) and because mauboy voted me in retalitaion for my vote on him.

Right -- I admitted to being wrong about that. I used your post to determine who didn't vote, and when I found out that DT had voted, I accidentally blamed you for the mistake. But what I'm asking now is whether or not what happened yesterday amounted to a wolf attempt to save you.

I was "saved" by mauboy and Saldana, both good villagers per their deaths, so I doubt any wolves were involved there.

You don't think Tyrith, clap, or even DT had anything to do with it? I just mentioned Tyrith and clap a few posts ago, and DT's vote made it 5-2-2. I think by then, you were out of the woods, so I think that bringing up mau as someone who saved you (when he was obviously trying to save himself), doesn't make sense to me. For the same reason, I'm less skeptical of DT's vote -- I don't think he votes to give mau a three vote lead, putting himself out there, if he's a wolf trying to save you.

mau voted 4 times last night...twice for both me and Sal...if he was really trying to save himself he did a poor job of it by basically canceling out his votes. so yes I feel he had aroud about way of "saving" me

I think you are just barking up the wrong tree is all with me

Why are you guys putting saved in quotation marks all the time?

because it's your word not mine.

To be "saved" by a wolf you generally have to be one and I'm not.
I haven't seen a game yet where a wolf would "save" a villager.

Yeah, it was SD and Alan I was referring to when I said "you guys" -- it just feels like you're trying to discredit it by pretending it didn't happen, rather than analyze it.

I mean, it'd be one thing if you said "I can see where you're coming from" (with or without quotes), then said something like "I don't think the wolves would let two of their ilk get outed like that," -- I mean, that's how the game is played! But instead it seems like you're ignoring part of what I'm saying, and basing your argument on the "fact" (notice the quotes) that you're a villager.

That said, I'm pretty torn. Most of this is just bringing up some discussion points. Truth be told, I *don't* think the wolves would let two of their ilk get outed like that. I'm just confused by the way this discussion is going.

I've got no problems discussion your other canidates, but won't discuss me because there is nothing to discuss about me I'm good.

there are 4 names that jump out at me from the voting from yesterday and all 4 were within 10-12 posts of each other.

Tyrith, Clap, Path & Jackyl

they even paired up in their votes so I'd bet we have 2 wolves in this group is my thinking.

discuss??

I'm going to put in a vote on Tyrith. I'm not sure what I think of hoops, but I have two slight reasons now to vote for him.

VOTE TYRITH

Here is the Day 3 conversations between SnDvls and Pass. Context - I already had a vote from Schmidty, was drawing fire from Alan and Tyrith (both of who eventually voted for me) and had Chief Rum vote for me each of the last two days. I think it is safe to say that there was some cover out there for wolf vs wolf by-play - and the vote eventually went to Tyrith after all of the consideration on SnDvls. The logic was to check if Tyrith was "saving" SnDvls, although as the 4th voter in it was a little suspect.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to play contrarian on this vote and go with SnDvls. Hope that I'm wrong and that the majority is correctly bringing Cutthroat Clap to the poverty line.

VOTE SNDVLS

[claphamsa]

bah, im good people!

vote sundevlis!!!!

lets start a run people. wooooo

[RendeR]

Hoopsguy sucks.

[RendeR]

Sorry, had to be said ;)



Sup hoops

[hoopsguy]

Could be, RendeR. I hope I suck on this vote a lot if we are going to end up sending Clap to the poorhouse.

[hoopsguy]

By the way, I'm never looking inside myself again. <shudders>

[hoopsguy]

(<shudder>)

[hoopsguy]

Gah, lets try some character substitution.

By the way, I'm never looking inside myself again. (shudders)

[RendeR]

*chuckles*

Talk Hard Hoops.

[claphamsa]

I dont get it.

[SnDvls]

strange move there hoops

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm going to play contrarian on this vote and go with SnDvls. Hope that I'm wrong and that the majority is correctly bringing Cutthroat Clap to the poverty line.

Do you think that it's one or the other, or could it be both?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm very troubled by the disposition of claphamsa's money.

VOTE claphamsa

[hoopsguy]

Sure, could be both.

If Clap is playing as a wolf, he appears to have managed his money poorly. I'm more than happy to hear any other explanations if people have them.

SnDvls, I don't think you are at risk today unless a lot of people decide that I'm making sense with Clap. The vote count right now suggests that isn't happening.

And the best part about that for you is that a little doubt makes you more likely to live into the next day. So you should probably be thanking me for making you a less likely target for a night kill :)

I would be very happy to have some discussion of your thoughts on the game up to this point.

[Schmidty]

I'm going to play contrarian on this vote and go with SnDvls. Hope that I'm wrong and that the majority is correctly bringing Cutthroat Clap to the poverty line.

VOTE SNDVLS

That's a perfectly wolfish thing if you ask me. "Sacrificing" a fellow wolf by not voting for him to make yourself look clean. This vote is easier than my previous ones on you:


VOTE HOOPSGUY

[hoopsguy]

I'm very troubled by the disposition of claphamsa's money.

VOTE claphamsa



But that is the thing - if you and Chief are telling the truth, then he has no money available to defend himself. So if there is any kind of late-session snipe going down, he won't be the one doing it.

Would the wolves have one of their members holding all of their CDs, with the chance that he could be voted out? Does that make any sense? And other members have the on-hand/bank money? Wow, if so then they got lucky one of those wolves wasn't scanned last night.

What does Occam's Razor say about Clap having 9K between on-hand + bank at this stage in the game?

[hoopsguy]

That's a perfectly wolfish thing if you ask me. "Sacrificing" a fellow wolf by not voting for him to make yourself look clean. This vote is easier than my previous ones on you:


VOTE HOOPSGUY

Can you expand on this theory for me? Because I don't get how it makes me look clean if he is a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I find a certain amount of irony that the argument Schmidty has for me as a wolf could be equally applied to him. Even if the logic is backwards from where I sit.

[Schmidty]

Also, I find a certain amount of irony that the argument Schmidty has for me as a wolf could be equally applied to him. Even if the logic is backwards from where I sit.

Maybe so, although my vote has been consistant. If people want to look at me more closely, that's fine. But I haven't had a hunch this strong since the Middle Earth game. Maybe it'll be that I'm wrong, and maybe it's dumb to put myself out there, but I'm going to everything I can to get you.

I wish I had been able to get on before everyone started voting because it would be nice see if I could have gotten more people on you.

One more thing: If you weren't a wolf, the wolves might have night killed me by now to make you look guilty (old trick that might not work), but I'm still alive.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, I'm fine if you only come after me in the thread. Now if you decided to buy the service in order to night-kill me then you would be seriously damaging our (the Rich) chances of winning the game.

I enjoyed reading along with the Middle Earth game. But you aren't right on this one, hunch or no hunch. Doesn't mean you won't be right at some later point if there is another conversion. But I started the game Rich and I remain Rich up to this point. You either know that already or will find out soon (can't believe we have too many days left).

[DaddyTorgo]

vote-count? is me voting for anyone other than clap even worth it?

[hoopsguy]

I dont get it.

Check RendeR's sig

[hoopsguy]

I believe vote is 6-2-1. Going from memory (someone should double-check):

Clap - Chief Rum, RendeR, Alan, Tyrith, MrW, SnDvls
SnDvls - Hoops, Clap
Hoops - Schmidty

[DaddyTorgo]

I think ATM a lynch one way or another should tell us a lot

Clap - Chief Rum, RendeR, Alan, Tyrith, MrW, SnDvls
SnDvls - Hoops, Clap
Hoops - Schmidty

either the wolves are stacked up on clap (and then we can play "at what point did they stack on him) or they are spread out. And if they're spread, there's not a lot of place for them to go.

[DaddyTorgo]

especially given the number of potential candidates we have for who could be wolves.

i'm loathe a bit to put a vote on anyone other than clap. At least putting a vote on him will make the wolves have to spend that much more to swing it away from him if he is a wolf.

[Mr. Wednesday]

But that is the thing - if you and Chief are telling the truth, then he has no money available to defend himself. So if there is any kind of late-session snipe going down, he won't be the one doing it.

I'm very troubled by the way his money lay last night, is what I'm getting after.

As far as a late-session snipe, the other cutthroat(s) could transfer money to him as needed to allow him to effect it without them revealing themselves, the same as Passacaglia transferred his own money away before he was bankrupted.

[DaddyTorgo]

I have my reasonings. I will explain after deadline.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't really get the point of a drive-by, unless you're trying to cause something to happen.

[SnDvls]

anyone got $10K to blow? or thinking about blowing?

[hoopsguy]

MrW, good point on them being able to move money back to him. Hopefully we will have enough people on here near the deadline to prevent antics - not a sure thing, given how well Pass late-vote on Night 4.

Schmidty (and I guess DT as well, at this point), do I need to sit in front of the PC to make sure you aren't going to toss a slew of votes on me at the deadline? I would rather save my money to bid for services.

[hoopsguy]

anyone got $10K to blow? or thinking about blowing?

What do you have in mind?

[SnDvls]

MrW, good point on them being able to move money back to him. Hopefully we will have enough people on here near the deadline to prevent antics - not a sure thing, given how well Pass late-vote on Night 4.

Schmidty (and I guess DT as well, at this point), do I need to sit in front of the PC to make sure you aren't going to toss a slew of votes on me at the deadline? I would rather save my money to bid for services.

funny you could have pretty much prevented that if you would have not thrown a meaningless vote towards me I believe

[SnDvls]

What do you have in mind?

want to keep everyone honest that is all

[Mr. Wednesday]

anyone got $10K to blow? or thinking about blowing?

On what?

I'll look to keep any shenanigans at bay, but I don't want to be profligate with my money.

[DaddyTorgo]

MrW, good point on them being able to move money back to him. Hopefully we will have enough people on here near the deadline to prevent antics - not a sure thing, given how well Pass late-vote on Night 4.

Schmidty (and I guess DT as well, at this point), do I need to sit in front of the PC to make sure you aren't going to toss a slew of votes on me at the deadline? I would rather save my money to bid for services.

I am not going to toss a slew of votes on you at the deadline. You have my word.

[hoopsguy]

funny you could have pretty much prevented that if you would have not thrown a meaningless vote towards me I believe

I'm willing to take a little heat if it gets you a bit more active in the conversation.

[DaddyTorgo]

I don't really get the point of a drive-by, unless you're trying to cause something to happen.

nail. head.

[SnDvls]

I'm willing to take a little heat if it gets you a bit more active in the conversation.

I think everyone (but you and Alan) is playing this game close to the vest so you calling me out is just odd.

[DaddyTorgo]

in-thread: myself, clap, hoops, mr.w, pass, schmidty, sndvls

[DaddyTorgo]

seeing pass here makes me think that maybe we have another wolf on the block or some antics about to happen.

[SnDvls]

vote clap
vote clap



just to keep everyone honest

[hoopsguy]

I think everyone (but you and Alan) is playing this game close to the vest so you calling me out is just odd.

Not at all - you are one of the people who has voted every day. You were on the wrong side of the vote on a wolf. That is a pretty good starting point for looking at you.

The biggest difference between you and Clap is that there was reason, based on Clap's money, to avoid voting for him today. Because the info on his money made an argument (at least how I read it) that he was less likely to be a wolf than you.

The others that fall into this group are:
Chief Rum - who has given out a good amount of info, for better or worse
Schmidty - would probably be my next target for original wolf at moment, but I would like to start by discussing you

[hoopsguy]

Clap, if we are past deadline do you feel like tipping your hand in advance of our friendly neighborhood moderator?

[claphamsa]

sure, but since you are also a wolf you know all about me and my 300K

[Mr. Wednesday]

It looks past deadline to me. DT, did you want to talk now about what you were doing?

[claphamsa]

stupid Cds.... :(

[DaddyTorgo]

as for why I voted hoops: I wanted to tie hoops and schmidty up at 2. Figured that way if the wolves wanted to save clap they would have to choose between schmidty and hoops on a level playing field financially and that might tell us a bit more about if one of them was another wolf.

Not a fabulous reason, but the clap vote seemed like it didn't need me.

[claphamsa]

and thats for the extra votes sundevils..not that it matters were about 150 K above yalls anyways. even losing my huge Cds.

[Schmidty]

Schmidty - would probably be my next target for original wolf at moment, but I would like to start by discussing you

Do you really think that I, of all people, would put himself out there like this, (challenging a player that I know can out-talk me, and definitely out analyze me) if I were a wolf? Ridiculous thinking.

But go ahead and target me tomorrow. If I get lynched (and haven't been converted by then), everyone will see what I am pretty sure of: You are a wolf.

[claphamsa]

hoops is not a wolf...

[claphamsa]

ok so maybe he is

[claphamsa]

or maybe not

[claphamsa]

but you never know...

[claphamsa]

then again im pretty sure BK is a wolf too

[claphamsa]

pass wasnt a wolf, we just pretended.

[claphamsa]

had tea partys and stuff

[claphamsa]

VOTE ST CRONIN

[claphamsa]

VOTE ST CRONIN.

sorry forgot to bold

[claphamsa]

and can we go ahead and add 11PM sunday hockey games to the stupidest excuse for not discussing?

[claphamsa]

by that I mean is sucks, its not convinient!

[claphamsa]

man this is a tough room

[claphamsa]

who wants to bet that Santana spend 4+months on the DL this year?

[claphamsa]

am i in the wrogn thread?

[hoopsguy]

Do you think that it's one or the other, or could it be both?

I want to come back around on this, as I answered it earlier while I was a little distracted with other stuff going on in the house. As I noted earlier, Clap and SnDvls voted in lockstep on Days 2 and 3, which makes me believe that they are not both wolves. I actually believe - based on the anecdotal evidence tied to # of votes + wrong votes on Pass - that one was an original wolf. Outside chance of other being the convert, but that seems like a longshot.

If I was coming up with percentages, I would list them something like this (very unscientific):
65% one of them is a wolf
25% neither is a wolf
9% one is convert, other is original wolf
1% both are original wolves

[claphamsa]

I want to come back around on this, as I answered it earlier while I was a little distracted with other stuff going on in the house. As I noted earlier, Clap and SnDvls voted in lockstep on Days 2 and 3, which makes me believe that they are not both wolves. I actually believe - based on the anecdotal evidence tied to # of votes + wrong votes on Pass - that one was an original wolf. Outside chance of other being the convert, but that seems like a longshot.

If I was coming up with percentages, I would list them something like this (very unscientific):
65% one of them is a wolf
25% neither is a wolf
9% one is convert, other is original wolf
1% both are original wolves
'
wow ur behind.. u need me to post some ketchup porn pics?

[hoopsguy]

Do you really think that I, of all people, would put himself out there like this, (challenging a player that I know can out-talk me, and definitely out analyze me) if I were a wolf? Ridiculous thinking.

But go ahead and target me tomorrow. If I get lynched (and haven't been converted by then), everyone will see what I am pretty sure of: You are a wolf.

Schmidty, I'm just glad to have you actively involved in the thread for a portion of each day. If the manifestation of that involvement is you voting for me three straight days then I'll deal with it.

As far as you, SnDvls, or any of the remaining players go - I try to re-evaluate all the time in these games. So bring me an in-game argument on why you wouldn't be a bad guy if you think I'm barking up the wrong tree. I certainly listen to, and sometimes promote, the meta-game stuff but I'm a sucker for in-game logic.

[hoopsguy]

'
wow ur behind.. u need me to post some ketchup porn pics?

Today did appear to be a foregone conclusion ...

[claphamsa]

I saw some LOLCAT porn a couple weeks ago... it was distrubing!

[Schmidty]

Schmidty, I'm just glad to have you actively involved in the thread for a portion of each day. If the manifestation of that involvement is you voting for me three straight days then I'll deal with it.


Thanks man. :)

[claphamsa]

OMG the mets signed tony armas?

[claphamsa]

I wonder where Bk is. Im woried I might die......

[SnDvls]

Schmidty, I'm just glad to have you actively involved in the thread for a portion of each day. If the manifestation of that involvement is you voting for me three straight days then I'll deal with it.

As far as you, SnDvls, or any of the remaining players go - I try to re-evaluate all the time in these games. So bring me an in-game argument on why you wouldn't be a bad guy if you think I'm barking up the wrong tree. I certainly listen to, and sometimes promote, the meta-game stuff but I'm a sucker for in-game logic.

what would you like me to add that I haven't already? I haven't been scanned, which is usually par for the course for me in games as I'm not a strong player and I'm not one of the weaker ones either I'm a tweener. No one is threatened if I'm a villager as they feel I'll be picked off by a dumb village lynch and I'm not much of a wolf either.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, that is what makes evaluating you hard at this point - there isn't much info to work off of one way or the other. Which is why, all things being equal, I would rather have you posting so I at least have some volume in the posts to help develop more of a feel.

And I think you do pretty well for yourself in the games you participate, fwiw.

[Barkeep49]

The man is a liar. Liars shouldn't be wealthy. Wait that doesn't make sense as you lie all the time and you damn well deserve every cent you have. Liars who lie about how much money they have shouldn't be wealthy. So you bankrupt Clap. And you're not surprised when the creditors find all sorts of murder weapons at his house. Only a Cutthroat would say that he had LESS money stolen from him than he really had. You, however, would have inflated it for insurance purposes.

In auction news:
The bodyguard went for 55863
The lawyer went for 1501
The Hitman went for 69866

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, that is what makes evaluating you hard at this point - there isn't much info to work off of one way or the other. Which is why, all things being equal, I would rather have you posting so I at least have some volume in the posts to help develop more of a feel.

And I think you do pretty well for yourself in the games you participate, fwiw.

I always participate FWIW

if I don't have anything to add to the conversation why muddle the picture?
I think I've been pretty active and posting quite a bit so I don't know where you are coming from.

I'd say I've posted more than at leat 4-5 people still in this game right now...even had a pretty open back and forth w/ a wolf too, and if you believe that was a ploy it was a very poor ploy by both Pass and I if you think we are/were both wolves.

[claphamsa]

::SOB::

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, fwiw I trust you a heck of a lot more after today. See post #1427.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so any thoughts on why a wolf would not have had money in bank or on hand? This confuses me ...

[SnDvls]

OK, so any thoughts on why a wolf would not have had money in bank or on hand? This confuses me ...

it was either in a CD or it was already passed to one "bidder" a while ago to get more interest on a lump sum.

[DaddyTorgo]

so did Mr. W misreport the amount of $$ he stole? that's what BK's writeup seems to indicate...

[SnDvls]

Players may give money to each other in the thread, though once per day the Cutthroat may transfer money from one player to another privately by PM’ing me.




I think everyone is making an assumpton that cutthroats can only pass $ once...it never says that and is a flawed assumption

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, but they can't pass money in CDs - and between Chief and MrW we verified Clap didn't have any money on hand or in the bank.

If Clap did have money locked away in CDs, and we caught them where they were stuck and unable to move it, then we got a huge break with the money game today. I just don't understand why a wolf would do that, since they have more incentive to be liquid than any individual member of the Rich.

[Barkeep49]

so did Mr. W misreport the amount of $$ he stole? that's what BK's writeup seems to indicate...
Try reading the kill again. If I was unclear I'll have to clear it up.

[DaddyTorgo]

Try reading the kill again. If I was unclear I'll have to clear it up.

i'm sure i'm just retarded

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, but they can't pass money in CDs - and between Chief and MrW we verified Clap didn't have any money on hand or in the bank.

If Clap did have money locked away in CDs, and we caught them where they were stuck and unable to move it, then we got a huge break with the money game today. I just don't understand why a wolf would do that, since they have more incentive to be liquid than any individual member of the Rich.

or he passed the majority of it prior to all the scans/events that happened

[Alan T]

so did Mr. W misreport the amount of $$ he stole? that's what BK's writeup seems to indicate...

I think that is in reference to Mr.W saying he got 9k from Claphasma, but Claphasma saying mr.w only stole 7512.. which was one of the two descrepencies that I had with Claphasma's story earlier in the day thus my vote for him.

I think everyone is making an assumpton that cutthroats can only pass $ once...it never says that and is a flawed assumption

The post you quoted, says the opposite. It says they can only pass money privately once a day. They can technically pass as much as they want, but the other times has to be publically posted in-thread according to the rules you quoted. That is my interpretation at least.

[SnDvls]

I think that is in reference to Mr.W saying he got 9k from Claphasma, but Claphasma saying mr.w only stole 7512.. which was one of the two descrepencies that I had with Claphasma's story earlier in the day thus my vote for him.



The post you quoted, says the opposite. It says they can only pass money privately once a day. They can technically pass as much as they want, but the other times has to be publically posted in-thread according to the rules you quoted. That is my interpretation at least.


if there are 3 wolves that's 3 passes is it not?

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, that is making an assumption about the order of operations. But I'll bite.

What does that suggest about the remaining wolf/wolves? My initial reaction is that they were less likely to attract attention than Clap.

Also, if they were worried about the Thief then their optimal play would likely have been to spread their assets between on-hand, bank, and CDs. CDs to 100% safeguard, on-hand + bank to retain liquidity for vote rigging and buying services.

[Alan T]

if there are 3 wolves that's 3 passes is it not?

Oh, I see what you are getting at. I guess i didn't read it that way. I had read it as "Cutthroat" as in the entire team. The way that is worded does seem to indicate individual cutthroat player.

[Alan T]

SnDvls, that is making an assumption about the order of operations. But I'll bite.

What does that suggest about the remaining wolf/wolves? My initial reaction is that they were less likely to attract attention than Clap.

Also, if they were worried about the Thief then their optimal play would likely have been to spread their assets between on-hand, bank, and CDs. CDs to 100% safeguard, on-hand + bank to retain liquidity for vote rigging and buying services.

I think it suggests that the third original wolf is someone that wouldn't have been scanned by the service that Tyrith had giving full money amounts, and someone who didn't feel the thief would go after them as well. They felt confident enough to pass all of their assets to one person to safeguard it.

Either that or Clap actually did have CDs with most of the money and we really got lucky.

[Alan T]

Dola,
I am assuming they couldn't convert and -then- pass money to a convert either but I guess we'd have to have information from BK on what order things happen in to know that for sure.

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, that is making an assumption about the order of operations. But I'll bite.

What does that suggest about the remaining wolf/wolves? My initial reaction is that they were less likely to attract attention than Clap.

Also, if they were worried about the Thief then their optimal play would likely have been to spread their assets between on-hand, bank, and CDs. CDs to 100% safeguard, on-hand + bank to retain liquidity for vote rigging and buying services.

I think you have to assume they got the wiretap bid . with today's bids being the last of their % on bids today they have at least recouped their bid money I believe, but I need to double check the numbers again.

now it'd be nice to find out that Clap had placed that bid and now loses that money, but it doesn't seem likely :(

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm wondering if it makes sense for Chief Rum to begin offering up some thoughts on the people with high-end bank statements when we start Day 6. That could help us with making a decision on voting to end the game, or potentially help nail a wolf who was the money man for their operation.

Chances are fairly good that if there is a "money wolf" that they kept a big chunk of it on-hand, but maybe not as much on the night that MrW was advertising he was going to use the Thief.

[SnDvls]

ahhh good news if the wolves won the wire tap they have lost about $20K in the process :)

[SnDvls]

dola - they bid $66 K roughly

and have earned only $46,668

[hoopsguy]

I think you have to assume they got the wiretap bid . with today's bids being the last of their % on bids today they have at least recouped their bid money I believe, but I need to double check the numbers again.

now it'd be nice to find out that Clap had placed that bid and now loses that money, but it doesn't seem likely :(

I'll go ahead and clear that up at this point - I got the Wiretap bid. Ended up being a small net loser at the price I paid for it but I wanted to speculate on it. Plus it lowered my overall holdings, which would have been a short-term poison pill for the wolves if they came after me with a 100K bribe (which did not happen).

So for those trying to run the numbers on end game, this should clear up one of the big mysteries.

Also, two wolves down so far and we still haven't run into the "No Bankrupt" option. I think that is the other big ticket item, prior to today anyway, that had not been claimed.

[SnDvls]

ok out for the night

[Alan T]

I'll go ahead and clear that up at this point - I got the Wiretap bid. Ended up being a small net loser at the price I paid for it but I wanted to speculate on it. Plus it lowered my overall holdings, which would have been a short-term poison pill for the wolves if they came after me with a 100K bribe (which did not happen).

So for those trying to run the numbers on end game, this should clear up one of the big mysteries.

Also, two wolves down so far and we still haven't run into the "No Bankrupt" option. I think that is the other big ticket item, prior to today anyway, that had not been claimed.

My guess is that as apparently there is a "money wolf" they likely made sure it was the one with the no bankrupt as well, to survive any suprise lynch vote that went their way.

I also wouldn't be suprised if they bid on the bodyguard today to protect against the assassin role tonight.

[SnDvls]

My guess is that as apparently there is a "money wolf" they likely made sure it was the one with the no bankrupt as well, to survive any suprise lynch vote that went their way.

I also wouldn't be suprised if they bid on the bodyguard today to protect against the assassin role tonight.

they don't have the bodyguard

[SnDvls]

dola - and I'm using it on someone else tonight too FYI wolves

[hoopsguy]

My guess is that as apparently there is a "money wolf" they likely made sure it was the one with the no bankrupt as well, to survive any suprise lynch vote that went their way.

I also wouldn't be suprised if they bid on the bodyguard today to protect against the assassin role tonight.

Hmm, I figured the wolves would go the other way - bid on the assassin to get 1-2 kills.

[SnDvls]

double dola - since I just about blew all my money on my bid and extra votes

[Alan T]

they don't have the bodyguard

Well that is good to know. I bid for it, but it went for like 25k+ more than I had.

[Alan T]

Hmm, I figured the wolves would go the other way - bid on the assassin to get 1-2 kills.

Well based on what Sndvls just said, that may very well be the case.

[Alan T]

Well, wife is waiting for me to come to bed. Night all

[hoopsguy]

For the remaining Rich with considerable assets, please make sure you are comfortable with your beneficiary. 10K to change it, if you have over 80K, is probably worth the cost.

I'm probably going to change mine, from someone that I have listed as medium trust to someone that is high trust.

[DaddyTorgo]

problem is it can be tough to tell who to trust in this game particularly b/c of conversions.

[Chief Rum]

OK, so any thoughts on why a wolf would not have had money in bank or on hand? This confuses me ...

My guess? And I find this hard to believe, but here it is...

...I was the only one who thought to ask if money in unmatured CDs counted against end game. If the wolves didn't know this, they probably put a bunch of their money (except for one bidder perhaps) into CDs to try to get more cash.

[Chief Rum]

or he passed the majority of it prior to all the scans/events that happened

He would have had to pass it before the end of Day Four and well before he was in any danger. My read on his bank account was as of the end of Day Four.

[Chief Rum]

I want to re-iterate a point I made yesterday that I think was lost: if we vote End Game, we absolutely must do it at night. If we do it during the day, we risk having too much money not count from being in CDs. CDs mature at the daily deadline, so at night, we have that money on hand.

And with more villagers than wolves (and less incentive for us to have liquidity), we are far more likely to have significant proceeds locked into CDs, and so a daytime vote for End Game could be a critical error. So I urge that we only make that decision at Night (if we need to make it and can afford to wait).

[Chief Rum]

OK, I'm wondering if it makes sense for Chief Rum to begin offering up some thoughts on the people with high-end bank statements when we start Day 6. That could help us with making a decision on voting to end the game, or potentially help nail a wolf who was the money man for their operation.

Chances are fairly good that if there is a "money wolf" that they kept a big chunk of it on-hand, but maybe not as much on the night that MrW was advertising he was going to use the Thief.

I am debating whether it would do much good for me to mention the high end names. There were only two players above $10,000 in the bank that night, and I would regard them both as well trusted.

[Chief Rum]

I will be gone most of the day as usual, but I will be back about a couple hours before deadline and will get in votes and commentary and what not then.

[Barkeep49]

Two murders! Oh dear. First there is the case of Tyrith. He was, like the others, brutally murdered. The police are beginning to suspect that the murders are related. But they're not sure yet. At the same time hoops was also found dead, but in a manner suggesting a professional. Both were just greedy rich men. The paper had no quote from either Tyrith's beneficiary, Alan T or hoops beneficiary, Chief Rum.

Today's services:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Private Investigator: Will learn the side (Cutthroat or Rich) of 1 player. Must be used night 6.
Underworld connection: If won by the Cutthroats, they receive a bonus kill on Night 6. If won by the Rich no kill or conversion may happen that night.

[hoopsguy]

Good luck, guys.

[claphamsa]

GO TEAM GO!

[Alan T]

Ugh..

Ok, we have a wolf and most likely a converted wolf left. I feel pretty good about the following three people not being the last original wolf left:

13. SnDvls
14. Mr. Wednesday
16. DaddyTorgo

Out of the other four, I lean towards the following two not being an original wolf:

8. The Jackal
9. Chief Rum

That leaves two of the three I had mentioned yesterday between Render, Schmidty and Claphasma:
5. Render
11. Schmidty



I am not going to bother digging in to the top three names today, based on what happened with Passacaglia and now Claphasma, I think those three have to have been rich from the start, and I am not worried about the conversion target today.

The next two names.. Chief Rum provided information that helped me solidify my vote on Claphasma. Without his bank info on him, it would have been easier for Claphasma to talk his way out of it. I think between Mr.W and Chief Rum, those two helped tighten the noose for Clap to hang himself with his accounting story.

I know Sndvls yesterday said he was going to likely vote Jackal today, but I don't see that he can be the last original wolf either today. All of Pass and Claphasma's money had to go somewhere.. Tyrith told us that Jackal only had like 75kish or whatever it was.. He couldn't have been the one to receive their money either.

That leaves Render and Schmidty.. neither one has anything strong going for them, but also both have excuses to why they might not be the wolf.. I guess the point to figure out is which is more likely to be the wolf... Render who missed multiple votes and thus the money... or Schmidty who has been on a one track Hoops campaign the entire game.

Render voted immediately for Claphasma yesterday, but that could have been to get ahead of the rush so to speak with the idea that it was a forgone conclusion that Clap was toast... I get the feeling that Schmidty bought the assassin and killed Hoops last night with him.. a move that doesn't necessarily make him bad even though it frustrates me as I had already cleared Hoops..

Guess today I'll go back and try to find more on these two in the past, but I have a feeling we won't find much in the thread as Render missed multiple votes, and Schmidty's votes have been relatively irrelevant.

[Schmidty]

I did it. I killed hoops. I admit it.

I made a really bad mistake. I guess there's a reason I should just hang back in the shadows. I actually feel like quitting right now. I probably lost the game for us. :(

[Schmidty]

......Schmidty's has been irrelevant.

fixed it for you.

[Alan T]

Day 1

Lathum – hoops (110)
Swaggs – Alan (149), Lathum (155), Pass (156), Render (157), Mr. W (168), The Jackal (192), saldana (198), path (215), Schmidty (229), Tyrith (231)
Sndvls – mauboy(151)
Mau – Sndvls (190)
Hoops – Chief Rum (201)
Jackal – claphams (205)

Day 2

Hoops – Chief (276)
Chief Rum – Alan (374), Mr. Wednesday (490)
Mauboy – Sndvls (388). Saldana (401), tyrith(411), clap (419), daddy t(473), saldana (515)
Sndvls – Pass (394), mauboy (396), mau (506)
Clap – path(406), The Jackal (417)
Saldana – Schmidty (414), hoopsguy (428), mau (487), mau (498)


Day 3

Hoopsguy – Schmidty (575), Tyrith (696), Hoops (704), Jackal (728)
Tyrith – Pass (698), Chief Rum (758), path (780)
Jackal – Sndvls (701), Hoops (706), Mr. W (709), clap (743)
Chief Rum – Daddy T(763)


Day 4

Render – Chief Rum (845)
Chief Rum – Render (848), Mr. W (1045), Clap (1066)
Hoopsguy – Schmidty (854)
Pass – Alan (872), Tyrith (998), Hoops (1053), Daddy T (1069)
Tyrith – Pass (1023)
The Jackal – SnDvls (1047)

Day 5

Clap - Chief Rum, RendeR, Alan, Tyrith, MrW, SnDvls, Sndvls, sndvls
SnDvls - Hoops, Clap
Hoops - Schmidty, DaddyTorgo

[Alan T]

Did Jackal not vote yesterday or did I just miss his vote? There was no end of the day vote recap.

[Schmidty]

This is my last WW game for a while. Maybe forever. I'm really, really bummed out about this.

If it wasn't considered bad form, I'd vote for myself today. If anyone does, I don't blame you, and I won't complain.

[Barkeep49]

Did Jackal not vote yesterday or did I just miss his vote? There was no end of the day vote recap.
I apologize for not posting my end of day voting record, but I did not see a vote from Jackal yesterday other than his vote to end the game.

[claphamsa]

This is my last WW game for a while. Maybe forever. I'm really, really bummed out about this.

If it wasn't considered bad form, I'd vote for myself today. If anyone does, I don't blame you, and I won't complain.
Dont get too discouraged we all mess up from time to time

[X]- BRAAAAAIIINNNS

[Alan T]

The only things I really pick up on the day 1 - 3 vote is that Passacaglia and Claphasma did a good job of spreading their votes around and not voting together. That tells me two additional things.. likely one of their fellow wolves was not up to be lynched, and the third wolf probably also spread his votes out as well.

The day 3 voting helps me feel even more likely that Jackal was not an original wolf. Clap put a vote on him at the end that directly endangered him of dying.

Day 1 the only others who spread their vote out from those two are Hoops/Mauboy (both dead), Chief/Sndvls (Both I don't think are bad based on other actions.) Day 1 being a forgone conclusion apparently with Swaggs gone, I don't think that day tells us much.

Day 2 and Day 3 neither Schmidty nor Render voted with either of them. (Render missed both votes and Schmidty just didn't vote).

Day 4 I think is likely which day will tell us the most.. Pass was on the line to be lynched, he had voted Tyrith earlier that day but was the only one on Tyrith. Claphasma voted Chief Rum to tie things up, Daddy Torgo voted Passacaglia to put him in the lead, which then led to the fun finish where Passacaglia voted multiple times to save himself apparently, but for whatever reason it didn't work.

I guess the question is.. was that voting by Passacaglia an act? I don't think so.. otherwise why wait till the last possible second? Why not do it with one minute to spare to try to get villagers to blow their cash? I think he honestly was trying to save himself, but it failed for some reason.. Why? I have no idea.. perhaps he tried to use money in CDs without realizing he couldn't.. or he miscounted how much money he had.. I don't know. Either way I am going to proceed that the expectations were that he was going to save himself, and the other wolves voted to help set that up.

Day 4, Render, Mr.W and Claphasma all voted for Chief Rum who ended up being Passacaglia's final target. I know Mr.W was good as I scanned him that night, but that leaves me questioning Render moreso here. Schmidty on the other hand threw his vote away at Hoops which once again didn't impact the vote one way or another.

So I guess my question is what do we have supporting Render not being a wolf? Only that he missed two votes (one of which days he was around just didn't vote). I'm beginning to believe that after seeing people's reaction to Arles missing two votes = he must be a villager, suddenly that became part of the wolf strategy to gain trust. Yes, he missed out on 30k, but considering for most of the game the villagers were getting something like 150k a day from voting and the wolves only got 45k a day from voting, I have to imagine that wasn't the source of their prime strategy here.

I think I'm leaning heavier to voting Render today than Schmidty.. I just don't see Schmidty behaving differently than normal..

[Alan T]

One correction on the daily votes up there. Day 3, Hoops did not vote for himself. that vote 704 was actually my vote for Hoops on that day. Wasn't my fault though.. I just copy and pasted that in from the daily vote totals. :)

[DaddyTorgo]

schmidty's one-man crusade against hoops would be good cover though. and he could totally pull it off.

i guess looking at schmidty vs. render on day 4 votes: schmidty threw his vote away on hoops, continuing a trend he started earlier, and render doubled-up on Chief Rum with a known wolf (the Clap), and Pass' attempt to save himself.

So then you have to ask yourself: is it more likely that a wolf would be the first vote AND the third vote on chief rum AND Pass (known wolf) would then try to dump onto Chief Rum to save himself -- with the wolves knowing that if this was successful there would be increased interest in the people who earlier voted for chief rum to make that possible

OR

is it more likely that Schmidty seized upon a strategy Day 1 of "I'm going to do the 'stubborn' routine and vote hoops all game and we won't bother to convert him and we'll hope he leads the villagers astray and gets lynched?"

random thoughts from me

[SnDvls]

Alan - what clears Daddy T or makes you trust him...I believe I've missed that.

[Schmidty]

is it more likely that Schmidty seized upon a strategy Day 1 of "I'm going to do the 'stubborn' routine and vote hoops all game and we won't bother to convert him and we'll hope he leads the villagers astray and gets lynched?"

You give me too much credit.

[SnDvls]

Schmidty - Are you saying you bought the Hitman last night and used it on hoops per your post?

[SnDvls]

Daddy T - care to explain your vote for Hoops now?

[Alan T]

Alan - what clears Daddy T or makes you trust him...I believe I've missed that.


Daddy Torgo effectively put the nail into Passacaglia on that vote. if he was a wolf, he could have voted elsewhere like Claphasma did and made things easier and more believable for Passacaglia to escape that day. By him putting that vote there, it forced Passacaglia to spend more money on votes to try to escape the lynch.

[DaddyTorgo]

Daddy T - care to explain your vote for Hoops now?

i explained it afterwards. basically i wanted to tie up hoops and who was it...you...who had 2 votes.

i felt that the clap thing was as close to a lock as we were gonna get, and i figured that by tying up the 2 other people who had votes we were more likely to gain useful information in the event that the wolves tried something (at the very least it would remove one level of an excuse for the person who didn't get votes dumped on them, if that had happened).

as i said, i felt the clap thing was pretty much a lock at that point, barring shenanigans, and i thought my play would have helped us gain more insight if there had been shenanigans

[Schmidty]

Schmidty - Are you saying you bought the Hitman last night and used it on hoops per your post?

Yes. Lying about it doesn't help anybody.

[RendeR]

I'm trying to understand all teh love Daddytorgo is receiving, why is he trusted by anyone at this point?

Schmidty's self loathing today screams of a covering act. He's always negative about his abilities in the game but this is way over the top as far as I'm concerned.

As for myself, why am I suspected? other than lack of activity I suppose...I missed two votes due to work, I've missed out on bids for the thief and the bodyguard as well as the government insider.

Since I never managed to win any bids I've just managed my money and stayed out of y'alls way. Hoops was leading a good game along with tyrith and MrW. So I dunno what else I can add. Take it for what its worth.

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm trying to understand all teh love Daddytorgo is receiving, why is he trusted by anyone at this point?

Schmidty's self loathing today screams of a covering act. He's always negative about his abilities in the game but this is way over the top as far as I'm concerned.

As for myself, why am I suspected? other than lack of activity I suppose...I missed two votes due to work, I've missed out on bids for the thief and the bodyguard as well as the government insider.

Since I never managed to win any bids I've just managed my money and stayed out of y'alls way. Hoops was leading a good game along with tyrith and MrW. So I dunno what else I can add. Take it for what its worth.

why am i not receiving love? i haven't done anything un-love worthy.

[RendeR]

Daddy Torgo effectively put the nail into Passacaglia on that vote. if he was a wolf, he could have voted elsewhere like Claphasma did and made things easier and more believable for Passacaglia to escape that day. By him putting that vote there, it forced Passacaglia to spend more money on votes to try to escape the lynch.


I'm not sure I buy this. It seems more feasible to me that they elceted to have one of their number stay on the hot button player each day while clap used his votes to muddy things up.

I'm still real unsure of DT, but not for any specific reason that I can nail down and put in text for you atm.

[RendeR]

Scmidty is lighting up my warning lights more DT, I'd vote for him before you at this point if thats any consolation =)