WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[MikeVic]

I've sent in a scan for clap already before. I'll stay with it. I like Lathum's plan of scanning people that cleared a student multiple times.

[nfg22]

So far everyone has cleared a student. So really N0 scans are pretty ridiculous...

[mauchow]

My fault guys. I'll try and keep up tomorrow. Glad to see though that there was a No Lynch, which I would have most definitely voted for. Hopefully I'm not the 100% right on guy that way I won't be hurting us too much for tomorrow.

[path12]

The jock thought that things were going very well indeed. In his letterman jacket he sat hidden with a view of his target's room. No wolves were going to get by him, no sir. He had been practicing bodyguarding in his spare time, and was getting much better, except that occasionally he fell asleep during the night. But tonight he had remembered to bring his mp3 player and it had worked, the night was almost over and he was still awake!

Right up until a wolf ripped out Greyroofoo's throat from behind. He was a jock.


You are a jock, and have been dabbling in bodyguarding – though you certainly still have much to learn. Especially the part about being able to stay awake all night. Each night you may submit the name of a player you would like to protect....non-essential details edited out here......You may not guard the same player two days in a row.

GREYROOFOO, STUDENT AND JOCK, IS DEAD. DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY, DEADLINE IS TUESDAY AT 9PM EST.

I'm typing up individual PM's now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

So far everyone has cleared a student. So really N0 scans are pretty ridiculous...

How many times do I have to repeat this before it will sink in? NOBODY HAS CLEARED ANYBODY.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I re-scanned Passacaglia. Today, he comes up as a wolf. A couple more days of this, and I may have some idea of how consistent I am. :p

[path12]

All PM's should be out now. If you feel you should have gotten one but didn't please let me know.

[Chief Rum]

How many times do I have to repeat this before it will sink in? NOBODY HAS CLEARED ANYBODY.

Mr. Wednesday, I think you need to re-read his post. It seems fairly obvious that anyone reading the second sentence will suppose that he is calling into question any "clearing".

Which is all pretty silly, anyway, for any of you to be discussing, considering I showed statistically that the N0 scans were worthless, and was saying that pretty much all day. Might as well forget N0 happened.

Sorry to see Greyroofoo go. Bad hit for us losing the BG on the first night. :(

BTW, I followed GRF's plan, as that seemed best at the time I left for work, and that had me scanning Lathum.

Lathum came up a wolf.

Obviously, we need more corroboration on that. I am as likely to be wrong as right.

[Chief Rum]

I re-scanned Passacaglia. Today, he comes up as a wolf. A couple more days of this, and I may have some idea of how consistent I am. :p

It's your first scan of Pass. Your N0 scan has no value whatsoever at this point. Unless you can show me statistically how the N0 scan could have happened the way it did.

[ntndeacon]

Lathum ewas a wolf for me as well

[Chief Rum]

Lathum ewas a wolf for me as well

Heh...wasn't Lathum (I think) who said someone would come out saying Player X is a wolf, and then a wolf would jump in and say he's a wolf, too, making sure Player X (Lathum in this case) is lynched? lol

Seriously, though, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. One wolf scan is essentially worthless without knowing how accurate we are. Two wolf scans is a little harder to dismiss (although extremely far from conclusive as well). I guess it would get interesting if we got up to four wolf scans on Lathum (or anyone, I use Lathum here because he has two, but this applies to anyone).

BTW, I will be gone all day tomorrow, as usual, at my job, but I will be back for the last hour or two before deadline. The earlier deadline will make it harder for me to catch up, but hopefully I will work through that.

[nfg22]

I changed at the last second, seeing as no one followed my plan. Claph came up as a seer.

[The Jackal]

Wow, that blows. BK is a student, but who knows if it's accurate.

[ntndeacon]

Heh...wasn't Lathum (I think) who said someone would come out saying Player X is a wolf, and then a wolf would jump in and say he's a wolf, too, making sure Player X (Lathum in this case) is lynched? lol

Seriously, though, it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. One wolf scan is essentially worthless without knowing how accurate we are. Two wolf scans is a little harder to dismiss (although extremely far from conclusive as well). I guess it would get interesting if we got up to four wolf scans on Lathum (or anyone, I use Lathum here because he has two, but this applies to anyone).

BTW, I will be gone all day tomorrow, as usual, at my job, but I will be back for the last hour or two before deadline. The earlier deadline will make it harder for me to catch up, but hopefully I will work through that.

My timing might have been a bit off, but I can only read so fast after I saw that I had a message. it is just my (and Lathum's) bad luck that we are in agreement here. I agree that 2 wolf scans though damning are hardly conclusive.

[Barkeep49]

I also scanned Lathum, as per GRF's plan and interestingly Lathum turned up student on my scan.

[saldana]

i followed the plan....barkeep came up as student

[saldana]

I also scanned Lathum, as per GRF's plan and interestingly Lathum turned up student on my scan.

so it is 2W/1V for Lathum at this point.

[saldana]

i will be popping in from work periodically throughout the day today

[claphamsa]

Mr. Wednesday, I think you need to re-read his post. It seems fairly obvious that anyone reading the second sentence will suppose that he is calling into question any "clearing".

Which is all pretty silly, anyway, for any of you to be discussing, considering I showed statistically that the N0 scans were worthless, and was saying that pretty much all day. Might as well forget N0 happened.

Sorry to see Greyroofoo go. Bad hit for us losing the BG on the first night. :(

BTW, I followed GRF's plan, as that seemed best at the time I left for work, and that had me scanning Lathum.

Lathum came up a wolf.

Obviously, we need more corroboration on that. I am as likely to be wrong as right.

lathum came up student for me

[Dr. Sak]

First things first...I scanned Chief Rum. I am always leary of someone who is trying to be overly helpful, i feel that he is covering up for something. Chief came up as a student.

Next, let's not all jump on the lynching Lathum bandwagon just yet. Remember none of us really know our success rate, plus we are banking on everyone telling the truth. There is probably a wolf or two out there that has already lied and either told us that someone was a student when they weren't...or didn't tell us exactly who he/she scanned.

[Dr. Sak]

Chief just to clear things up...you scanned Lathum last night and he came up as a wolf. But back on post 113 you said you scanned him in N0 and he came up a student. Am I reading that correctly?

[ntndeacon]

clearly bsak. I don't know who I will vote for, I do think that Lathum would be a better target than the 2 that were scanned numerous times yesterday. I told myself this morning that I probably discounted others wolf accounts while believing my own, for good or ill.

[Pumpy Tudors]

My scan shows nfg22 as a wolf. Go figure.

[Lathum]

My scan shows nfg22 as a wolf. Go figure.

This is interesting.

I went off the reservation and scanned Dodgerchick because she came to the defense of nfg22 so quickly and she came up wolf for me.

[Lathum]

dola- I have a pretty busy day today so I am not sure how much I'll be online. I realize 2 wolf scans came back for me. This also happened to me in the first game and I came back a villager so anyone who thinks it's unlikely to happen it can

[Lorena]

I scanned Barkeep and he came up as a student.

[Greyroofoo]

well nice game fellows, guess i should've hit the gym more.

[Passacaglia]

I'm still catching up on the thread, but I got RendeR as a student.

[Barkeep49]

well nice game fellows, guess i should've hit the gym more.
You really brought a lot to it in the short time you played. I hope to see you again in a game soon!

[Lorena]

You really brought a lot to it in the short time you played. I hope to see you again in a game soon!

+1

Anyone remember who was against Grey's plan? That's the person/people we should probably look at as they seemed threatened by the idea.

Here's the list:

My proposed scanning groups if we want to go this route
This was just done alphabetically

Group - 1
Barkeep49
Bask16
Chief Rum
claphamsa
DodgerChick

Group - 2
Greyroofoo
jeheinz72
Lathum
mauboy1
MikeVic

Group - 3
Mr Wednesday
nfg22
ntndeacon
oliegirl
Passacaglia

Group - 4
Pumpy Tudors
RenderR
saldana
SnDvls
st cronin
The Jackal

And these were his suggestions:

dola just to propose whom I think each group should scan (taken from the sign up list on page 1)

Group 1 - Lathum
Group 2 - clap
Group 3 - RenderR
Group 4 - Barkeep49

[Lathum]

I'll freely admit I was against his plan.

[Passacaglia]

I see Lathum, Dodgerchick, ntndeacon, nfg22, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16, and Mr. Wednesday voting not in accordance with grey's plan.

[Passacaglia]

I see Lathum, Dodgerchick, ntndeacon, nfg22, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16, and Mr. Wednesday voting not in accordance with grey's plan.

I meant to say scanning, not voting.

[RendeR]

I also scanned Lathum as he was my day 1 vote and I was the person in my group everyone was going to scan. Lathum came back Wolf.

[Lathum]

which is precisly why I was against his plan. There is no way you can expect 21 people to follow something like this.

[Lathum]

I am now going to bow out of this game. I learned after the first one there is no point.

Once I return villager tonight look at DC and nfg22 as well as Render, NTN and ChiefRum.

[Lathum]

dola- I was also against his plan because I said it would be to easy for the wolves to manipulat it, which is exactly what has happened.

[Passacaglia]

I also scanned Lathum as he was my day 1 vote and I was the person in my group everyone was going to scan. Lathum came back Wolf.

Dude, your group was supposed to scan Barkeep.

[Lathum]

ok, I'm out after this for a while anyway.

I STRONGLY SUGGEST you come up with a plan for what you want to do when I come back villager tonight so you aren't scrambling at the deadline when half the people playing won't be available. It's going to be important for the night scans tonight to be organized.

I could show 10 reasons why I am not a wolf, but I realize how pointless it really is going to be.

[Passacaglia]

I am now going to bow out of this game. I learned after the first one there is no point.

Once I return villager tonight look at DC and nfg22 as well as Render, NTN and ChiefRum.

If you're bowing out of the game, how will we get to find out if you're a villager?

[Lathum]

dola- If for some reason I have time later I'll mount some kind of defense if it isn't to much of a runaway.

[RendeR]

Dude, your group was supposed to scan Barkeep.

Doh....Guess I misunderstood. I thought the groups were targeting the name listed for the group or something like that. My bad. I really wanted to scan Lathum anyway, Lathum is never to be trusted. He's evil incarnate.

[Passacaglia]

ok, I'm out after this for a while anyway.

I STRONGLY SUGGEST you come up with a plan for what you want to do when I come back villager tonight so you aren't scrambling at the deadline when half the people playing won't be available. It's going to be important for the night scans tonight to be organized.

I could show 10 reasons why I am not a wolf, but I realize how pointless it really is going to be.

If you're quitting the game, path is going to have to find a replacement for you, and no one will want to vote for you, because that would put your replacement in a crappy spot.

This reminds me of last game, where people who had heat on them were encouraged to help out the rest of the village be spreading out their money. If I recall, not one villager actually did it.

[Lathum]

If you're bowing out of the game, how will we get to find out if you're a villager?

I meant I am not going to sink a ton of time and energy in my defense. Last incarnation of this game 2 people scanned me wolf the same night and I got lynched and I was a villager that game as well.

You know as well as I do what happens when mob mentality takes over. 3 people have claimed to have scanned me as a wolf, my odds of succesfully defending myself eventhough there is convincing evidence is slim to none. People are going to need an excuse to lynch someone.

[claphamsa]

I am now going to bow out of this game. I learned after the first one there is no point.

Once I return villager tonight look at DC and nfg22 as well as Render, NTN and ChiefRum.
why is there no point? Im confident you arent a wolf....

[RendeR]

ok, I'm out after this for a while anyway.

I STRONGLY SUGGEST you come up with a plan for what you want to do when I come back villager tonight so you aren't scrambling at the deadline when half the people playing won't be available. It's going to be important for the night scans tonight to be organized.

I could show 10 reasons why I am not a wolf, but I realize how pointless it really is going to be.



Lathum, no matter what you feel about the prospects of the game, bowing out isn't going to help anything. You're still good for keeping analysis going and arguing the points being made so we don't miss anything.

Everyone has some ability in this game and to be honest, I think a lot of these scans today are coming up wolf and statistically are balancing out the day 0 scans that peth sent out.

How often have I been the overwhelming target as a villager? yes, its frustrating as hell, but quit? no way man! Stick around and help us out!

[Passacaglia]

Doh....Guess I misunderstood. I thought the groups were targeting the name listed for the group or something like that. My bad. I really wanted to scan Lathum anyway, Lathum is never to be trusted. He's evil incarnate.

What worries me about this is that I have a hunch that the N0 scans were all intended to come up both good and true, so as a result, we weren't able to scan any wolves. The list of people who weren't scanned N0 are:

Barkeep49
RendeR
mauboy1
ntndeacon
oliegirl
st.cronin
The Jackal
SnDvls

[Lathum]

do you really think I would ever quit a game?

[RendeR]

do you really think I would ever quit a game?


I should hope not, I'd lose what little respect I have for you ;)

[Lathum]

What worries me about this is that I have a hunch that the N0 scans were all intended to come up both good and true, so as a result, we weren't able to scan any wolves. The list of people who weren't scanned N0 are:

Barkeep49
RendeR
mauboy1
ntndeacon
oliegirl
st.cronin
The Jackal
SnDvls


no way.

[Dr. Sak]

What worries me about this is that I have a hunch that the N0 scans were all intended to come up both good and true, so as a result, we weren't able to scan any wolves. The list of people who weren't scanned N0 are:

The only way they are all true is if the people telling us who they scanned told the truth. There is no guarantee for that.

[Lathum]

why is there no point? Im confident you arent a wolf....

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

[RendeR]

What worries me about this is that I have a hunch that the N0 scans were all intended to come up both good and true, so as a result, we weren't able to scan any wolves. The list of people who weren't scanned N0 are:

Barkeep49
RendeR
mauboy1
ntndeacon
oliegirl
st.cronin
The Jackal
SnDvls


I see what yer saying here pass, but I'm not sure path would create a scenario wher we only had to look at 1/4 of the total players. If what you're suggesting is true and he never night scanned a wolf on purpose, then the village would have an INSANE advantage of only having to worry about this small group. I just don't see that happening.

Its a lot easier to believe that the night 0 scans were as random as anything else and they just turned up that way, good scans and bad scans all returned a villager result.

Am I making sense there? I tend to ramble.

[Dr. Sak]

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

Since Chief isn't around let me ask you this one...on N0 he scanned you and it came up villager...then in N1 he scanned you again and you came up wolf?

[Passacaglia]

no way.

I know it's unlikely, because it points far too well to all the wolves, but maybe path didn't think anyone would think about it, and if they did, that the first reaction would be not to believe it, so it's okay?

[Passacaglia]

Since Chief isn't around let me ask you this one...on N0 he scanned you and it came up villager...then in N1 he scanned you again and you came up wolf?

That's what my records say he's done.

[Passacaglia]

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.

It's 3 to 2 from N1 scans, 3 to 3 if you count N0.

[RendeR]

there is no point because at the end of the day people need a reason to vote.

3 wolf scans vs. 1 villager scan is a pretty good reason.


But not knowing which of the seers quality-wise did those scans, we can't know if you for example had 4 people with really good or really shitty abilities. If they were all pretty bad at it, that could easily account for the 3 bad scans. Not knowing our own ability levels throws every scan into doubt.

it could just as easily be 3 good scanners vs one bad one for you too, but we just don't know.

[RendeR]

Ok, I'm out till sometime after 2pm. got stuffs to do!

[Passacaglia]

It looks like cronin is 1-0 so far. What do you guys think of letting him set up groups for N2 scans?

[Passacaglia]

Or maybe Lathum could do it -- if he's going to be voted off anyway, we'll know whether or not the arrangement was done by someone on our side, or someone trying to trick us.

[Lathum]

Or maybe Lathum could do it -- if he's going to be voted off anyway, we'll know whether or not the arrangement was done by someone on our side, or someone trying to trick us.

I would be more then willing to do that.

[Lathum]

OK, in response to what some people have said.

Alot of people have discounted night 0 scans since they all came back villager.

I don't want to be lynched, but at the end of the day who is going to emerge as a better candidate.

My vote goes to Dodgerchick. I have to finish writting a paper but I'll illustrate why later.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I want to vote nfg22, but I'm not doing it just yet. I'll see if any more information comes out as the morning progresses.

[Lathum]

I want to vote nfg22, but I'm not doing it just yet. I'll see if any more information comes out as the morning progresses.

I would be willing to go with that.

I think if nfg is a wolf DC is as well.

[Lathum]

dola- I think it is wise to hold of for now though

[claphamsa]

Im not sold on NFG22 he seems like a n00b who is just playing poorly.... but thats just me. someone has to go....

[Pumpy Tudors]

I trust my scan that nfg22 is a wolf, but maybe more info will come out.

[Passacaglia]

We're still waiting to hear scans from oliegirl, st.cronin, MikeVic, and SnDvls.

[Lathum]

We're still waiting to hear scans from oliegirl, st.cronin, MikeVic, and SnDvls.

there has to be more then that out there still

[Passacaglia]

Pumpy, I know you're not comfortable giving out your N0 scan because you didn't choose it, but that hasn't stopped everyone else. The more info we've got, the better off we'll be. Just like I said yesterday, I'll unvote you if you pony up the info.

VOTE PUMPY TUDORS

[Passacaglia]

there has to be more then that out there still

Fine, don't believe me. :p

Maybe you were adding on N0 scans? We're still waiting on The Heinz and Pumpy for those.

[Passacaglia]

But anyway, to prove myself:

Name Night 1
1. claphamsa Lathum
2. Lathum Dodgerchick
3. Barkeep49 Lathum
4. RendeR Lathum
5. Chief Rum Lathum
6. mauboy1 X
7. jeheinz72 X
8. Passacaglia RendeR
9. Dodgerchick Barkeep49
10. ntndeacon Lathum
11. nfg22 claphamsa
12. oliegirl
13. saldana Barkeep49
14. st.cronin
15. The Jackal Barkeep49
16. MikeVic
17. SnDvls
18. Pumpy Tudors nfg22
19. Bsak16 Chief Rum
20. Greyroofoo X
21. Mr. Wednesday Passacaglia

[Lathum]

I forgot about MAu and Jheinze.

[jeheinz72]

Finally, The Heinz has arrived.

My bad folks, I have no legit excuse other than A) I only post from work and B) I totally didn't put two-and-two together that the game was starting on a day I wouldn't be at work.

Totally my bad, and I wouldn't blame you for lynching me, especially when you read this part, which I understand looks horribly wolf-cheesy, but is nonetheless the truth.

My N0 scan was of GreyRooFoo was a student.

I know, I know, lame, but like I said, that's the name path gave me, that's all I can say. Obviously no night 1 scan for me.

In reading this 12-page missive I'd say I'm not inclined to pile on Lathum. If I'm reading it right, he's been scanned 6 times and is 3 and 3, yes? Isn't that about the expected value of our seer-ness?

I'm going to think on this game a bit, and see if I can devise a theory. Anyone have post numbers of scanners/scan results for N0?

[Passacaglia]

Name Night 0
1. claphamsa Pumpy Tudors
2. Lathum claphamsa
3. Barkeep49 Mr. Wednesday
4. RendeR bsak16
5. Chief Rum Lathum
6. mauboy1 nfg22
7. jeheinz72 greyroofoo
8. Passacaglia Pumpy Tudors
9. Dodgerchick MikeVic
10. ntndeacon Pumpy Tudors
11. nfg22 saldana
12. oliegirl claphamsa
13. saldana jeheinz72
14. st.cronin greyroofoo
15. The Jackal MikeVic
16. MikeVic greyroofoo
17. SnDvls Chief Rum
18. Pumpy Tudors
19. Bsak16 saldana
20. Greyroofoo Dodgerchick
21. Mr. Wednesday Passacaglia

All results were villager.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Fine, my N0 scan said that Lathum is student.

[SnDvls]

I followed Grey's plan as I has stated and scanned Barkeep...he came up student for me

[Barkeep49]

Lathum if you come around: I understand that you know your own role. However, at what point does it become instructive to kill you just to learn the accuracy, or innaccuracy, of the multiple scans? As I count it we have 5 scans from Night 1 on you? If so that starts to give the 5 of us insight into how accurate are scans are, or aren't. If we were looking at 4/1 or 5/0 villager/wolf, I'd be less inclined to think that. But with 3 people coming up wolf on you, I think we're looking at a situation where we can start to differentiate the voices we should be listening to and trusting, and the ones that we should give less weight to, or give credence to because we know they're inaccurate.

Vote Lathum

[Lathum]

Fine, my N0 scan said that Lathum is student.

I gotta be honest Pumpy, considering we were discussing trying to coordinate scans of people who were involved in multiple scans of one person that makes you look pretty bad.

[Passacaglia]

UNVOTE PUMPY TUDORS

[The Jackal]

Hm. Do we think one of the wolves would lie about a scan this early in the game to try to get someone lynched? One of the wolf results on Lathum could've been engineered by a lying wolf trying to make an early play and stay under the radar.

Who turned him up as a wolf?

[Passacaglia]

Lathum if you come around: I understand that you know your own role. However, at what point does it become instructive to kill you just to learn the accuracy, or innaccuracy, of the multiple scans? As I count it we have 5 scans from Night 1 on you? If so that starts to give the 5 of us insight into how accurate are scans are, or aren't. If we were looking at 4/1 or 5/0 villager/wolf, I'd be less inclined to think that. But with 3 people coming up wolf on you, I think we're looking at a situation where we can start to differentiate the voices we should be listening to and trusting, and the ones that we should give less weight to, or give credence to because we know they're inaccurate.

Vote Lathum

On the flip side, BK, you've got 4 scans on you, all good. Don't the odds of you being good, and all 4 of your scans coming up good, worry you?

[Passacaglia]

It looks like cronin is 1-0 so far. What do you guys think of letting him set up groups for N2 scans?

To amend this, I didn't see MikeVic had scanned grey also. Adding in The Heinz makes three people who scanned him N0.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I gotta be honest Pumpy, considering we were discussing trying to coordinate scans of people who were involved in multiple scans of one person that makes you look pretty bad.
ONLY A WOLF WOULD SAY THAT!!!

[Passacaglia]

Hm. Do we think one of the wolves would lie about a scan this early in the game to try to get someone lynched? One of the wolf results on Lathum could've been engineered by a lying wolf trying to make an early play and stay under the radar.

Who turned him up as a wolf?

RendeR, Chief Rum, and ntndeacon. Oddly enough, only one of them (CR) was supposed to scan Lathum, according to grey's plan.

[Lorena]

I see Lathum, Dodgerchick, ntndeacon, nfg22, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16, and Mr. Wednesday voting not in accordance with grey's plan.

Ehh.. no. I was confused and went with this:

I thought maybe everyone in each group scans other people in the same group as them?

That's why I chose BK, it wasn't until this morning that I realized I should have scanned Lathum.

[jeheinz72]

Lathum if you come around: I understand that you know your own role. However, at what point does it become instructive to kill you just to learn the accuracy, or innaccuracy, of the multiple scans? As I count it we have 5 scans from Night 1 on you? If so that starts to give the 5 of us insight into how accurate are scans are, or aren't. If we were looking at 4/1 or 5/0 villager/wolf, I'd be less inclined to think that. But with 3 people coming up wolf on you, I think we're looking at a situation where we can start to differentiate the voices we should be listening to and trusting, and the ones that we should give less weight to, or give credence to because we know they're inaccurate.

Vote Lathum

The problem I have with this BK, is that we're at our logical expected value of what should happen with the scans. We have 6 scans on him, 3 for a wolf, 3 for a villegar (;) ). If we expect to have, on average, a 50% or near 50% hit rate, then we won't actually learn anything.

Let's say we scan Lathum and he ends up being a wolf.

While it would obviously be good (that we got a wolf), I'd find it hard to say any of his scanners actually learned anything.

I mean it just happened that the cookie crumbled in a different way for some than it did for others.

Personally, today my vote will be more about gameplay than scanning records, I just can't help but see that too much fault lies in those for now.

[Passacaglia]

Ehh.. no. I was confused and went with this:



That's why I chose BK, it wasn't until this morning that I realized I should have scanned Lathum.

Hey, just because you were misled by me doesn't mean that you did vote according to his plan! :p It's one thing to say you were confused, but that doesn't make me wrong.

[claphamsa]

Didnt anyone scan me? Cuz im good and all....

[Pumpy Tudors]

Didnt anyone scan me? Cuz im good and all....
Of course you are. We don't need to scan you.

[Lorena]

Hey, just because you were misled by me doesn't mean that you did vote according to his plan! :p It's one thing to say you were confused, but that doesn't make me wrong.

No, I wasn't saying you were wrong, I misunderstood.

In any event, we should probably wait to see who everyone else scanned but it is fishy that Lathum got half wolf votes and BK all good.

Also, we definitely need to get some sort of scanning gameplan early so we're not scrambling at the last minute.

[Lathum]

Yes, many times unfortunately. I'm easily swayed and run all kinds of conspiracy theories in my head when there's a hint that someone *might* be telling the truth.

Well, there's one vote out there so I might as well throw one as well

Vote jeheinz72

Random, Day 1, etc.

10:23, DC casts a very early vote. Suspicios move IMO since there is still a ton of information yet to be revealed out there.

Vote jeheinz72

10:39- Pumpy jumps on board

And no lynch because.... ? I was under the impression that a lynch was good regardless of who we get rid of. No lynching Day 1 is like giving the wolves a free shot. IMO, shooting in the dark and failing is better than not shooting at all.

DC argues for a day one lynch when clearly it is a poor move considering this ruleset.

Seriously, isn't *every* WW game that way? Day 2 is usually as much of a crapshoot as is Day 1.

Calls day 2 a crapshoot when again, it is obvious there is far more information out there this game then usual.

I never feel comfortable giving out too much information, but I will say that I'll scan someone from this list.

I'll probably be gone for the remainder of the day, dunno for sure. My vote remains with heinz.

stays with heinze, pretty easy move to vote for the guy we know won't be here.

Im down with that last plan...even though I wil most lkely be on the list.

This is where I point out what I feel is a slip of the tounge fron nfg22

why wouldn't you want to be on the list?

I call him out on it

Well that was my point. nfg22's tone came across as being regretfull to be on the list.

It's almost enough to make me want to vote him.

I explain why

I also know this is a little meta-gamey but he refered to you as a seer and not a student.

I don't plan on scanning nfg22 tonight because if he comes up wolf for me it may seem I am out to get him, but I suggest a couple of people scan him.

Another reason why he seems suspiscous. I also was true to my word and didn't scan him. But Pumpy did and he came back a wolf.

I didn't read this as he didn't wanna be on the list, I read this as he's doesn't mind being on the list.

DC comes to nfg22's defense. This really pinged me and is the reason I scanned her.

You seem to be overanalyzing things I think. "Even though" doesn't necessarily mean it's a negative statement, at least not to me. I think he's saying he doesn't mind being on the list if it means he's gonna get cleared.

So what's the difference between his post and Barkeep's?

I mean aren't we all seers? Some are better than others obviously.

Here DC continues to defend nfg22 and some of his other statements. Again, this is why I scanned her and she came back wolf.

[Lathum]

I think my point about not being able to coordinate scans with this many people is being proven convicingly :)

[ntndeacon]

No, I wasn't saying you were wrong, I misunderstood.

In any event, we should probably wait to see who everyone else scanned but it is fishy that Lathum got half wolf votes and BK all good.

Also, we definitely need to get some sort of scanning gameplan early so we're not scrambling at the last minute.

so you think if it is too good to be true it probably is? At least for this game.

[claphamsa]

HMmm, good analisys. excpet the part about a day one lynch, but we can agree ot diagree onthat one.

so you are calling out DC Pumpy and NFG?

[Lathum]

HMmm, good analisys. excpet the part about a day one lynch, but we can agree ot diagree onthat one.

so you are calling out DC Pumpy and NFG?

I think it far more likely DC and nfg are wolves.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Just in case I forget to do this later, I'll throw this out there. If new information pops up, I might change.

VOTE NFG22

[Passacaglia]

I have a couple ideas for my vote, but I'd rather wait until everyone else has revealed their scans, so that my theories don't affect what they say.

[saldana]

FWIW Lathum, I am not ready to vote for you on a 50/50 split...i am much more inclined to go with you on DC with one wolf scan and your gut read on her

[Lorena]

Pretty compelling "evidence" Lathum, but I'm sure it's so you can save your own skin.

Think about it, Lathum was against Grey's plan, was a proponent for No Lynch, and now half the people that scanned him came out as a wolf. C'mon.

I'm not gonna try to defend myself, everytime I do no one listens, but vote for whomever you want, I don't care.

Vote Lathum

[saldana]

dola, i totally agree with your analysis of her regarding the defense of the slip of the tounge

[Lorena]

so you think if it is too good to be true it probably is? At least for this game.

It could be, who knows.

[Lorena]

(_X_)

[MikeVic]

I scanned clap as planned. He came up as wolf.

I don't know if we should take night 0 as hard evidence, but I did have Grey as a villager too.

[Lathum]

Think about it, Lathum was against Grey's plan,

which like I said, didn't work. IIRC you were one of the people who deviated from it.

was a proponent for No Lynch,

Which according to the rules was the right move. And oh, If I was a wolf wouldn't I want a day one lynch?

and now half the people that scanned him came out as a wolf. C'mon.



Well considering the nature of the game those numbers probably add up.

I think the thing we should be looking at are the people who scanned me despite claiming they were going with the plan.

[Lathum]

my replies are in italics above, it came out jacked up

[Lorena]

Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.

[Lorena]

dola,

when i come up villager, you guys know who to gun for.

[Lathum]

Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.

While I have no problem with you scanning me why would you submit this so early?

We haven't even gotten everyone's results from last night and no one should be submitting their scans until we find out the results of the lynch.

[Lathum]

dola,

when i come up villager, you guys know who to gun for.

You don't even have a vote on you

[MikeVic]

So Lathum is thinking nfg and DC are wolves right?

[Barkeep49]

Regarding the 50/50 split on Lathum: Yes that's what we'd expect on the aggregate to have things be evenly split. BUT on the individual level this isn't necessarily going to be true. Figuring out who tends to be more accurate is going to be important in the late game so we know who to give weight to in listening to scans, and how much weight to give to them. Not all scans are equal. Our job needs to figure out whose scans are better than others, otherwise we're going to have to just play a traditional game of WW. And in a traditional game of WW, I like the the logic Lathum has presented today against DC. But I'm not resigned yet to that style of play. I think we can do better.

[Passacaglia]

You don't even have a vote on you

That's funny, considering it was what, a couple hours ago when you said the same thing, and you didn't have a vote on you, either!

[Barkeep49]

To summarize my somewhat meandering point above:
We have two options:
1. Ignore the scan info, play a traditional game of WW based on intuition, post analysis, and voting analysis
2. Try to make sense of the scans. Find out the people who are above average in accuracy (good because we can vote with them), below average in accuracy (good because we do the opposite), and in the middle in accuracy (information we have to ignore).

I'm trying to make 2 a reality, but think there is nothing wrong with playing via style 1.

[Lathum]

That's funny, considering it was what, a couple hours ago when you said the same thing, and you didn't have a vote on you, either!

except I had 3 people claiming I was a wolf

[MikeVic]

I think we have to use the scan info more as the game progresses, as long as it's fairly obvious who an accurate scanner is.

[Lathum]

To summarize my somewhat meandering point above:
We have two options:
1. Ignore the scan info, play a traditional game of WW based on intuition, post analysis, and voting analysis
2. Try to make sense of the scans. Find out the people who are above average in accuracy (good because we can vote with them), below average in accuracy (good because we do the opposite), and in the middle in accuracy (information we have to ignore).

I'm trying to make 2 a reality, but think there is nothing wrong with playing via style 1.

Obviously my opinion is going to be somewhat skewed but I think playing the first way is the smart move until we have a couple of days worth of scans to go by.

[claphamsa]

I think we need to play 1 untill we find more info out...

[Barkeep49]

Clap and lathum: You both suggest that we start with style 1 and move into style 2. How do you propose we do this?

[Lathum]

Clap and lathum: You both suggest that we start with style 1 and move into style 2. How do you propose we do this?

Honestly.

I think everyone should scan the same person they scanned tonight.


as for option 1 I laid out my argument why I am suspiscous of DC, the fact I scanned her as a wolf is an added bonus.

[MikeVic]

We can scan the same person as last night, I'm ok with that. But I think we have to lynch someone tonight?

[claphamsa]

I woudl play as normal... and once we had enough scans to say with a reasonable success who was a good seer and who was a crappy seer then we can use their scans.

For example, if we can figure out who the class clown is.. then we know 100% that whatever they say is wrong... so if someone turns up as a student then they are a wolf...

[Lathum]

OK< I pulled up some stuff from yesterday

Checking in. As I see no reason to not reveal my night 0 scan it was Clap and he came up good.

If I was a wolf there is no way I reveal this information this early. At the time we had no idea everyone was going to come back scanned as a villager. If I was a wolf I would be concerned someone would have had a succesful scan of me. I would have sat on my scan info to use as a possible defense until later.



I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult.


As a wolf I would have jumped on the lets lynch heinze for being inactive. It's the easiest day 1 vote excuse there is.

Path-2 questions

Is the tie-breaker public?
Can we vote No Lynch?

I would never suggest no lynch as a wolf, ever. If someone else suggests it I may go along, but as a wolf I would never be the first to breach the topic. Especially since at the time it would have been easy to gt JHeinze lynched.

It is my understanding that night 0 we were assigned random targets and now we can select our own candidates.

I don't really agree with this. The more someone comes up good in a scan the more likely they are to be a villager. Even if a wolf claimed to have scanned someone and they came up good then that still makes them a villager so why would we kill them.

I think the best course of action is a no lynch tonight and hold off until tomorrow when we have 2 nights of info.

again, I advocate no lynch and use our info from night 1 scans. If I am a wolf I know I am gonna be scanned, why would I suggest this if that was the case.

As Cronin pointed out I am as big a supporter as there can be about having lynches everyday, I just think this game is the rare exception where it is more prudent to wait an extra day.


Anyone who has played a number of games with me knows I always want a lynch.

I am fine with being scanned tonight btw.

IIRC I am the first person to come out and say go ahead and scan me.


I think it would almost be better for everyone to scan a random person tonight, that way the wolves would have no knowledge of what was coming or any time to prepare/ coordinate.


Why would I suggest anything to hurt the wolves if I was one of them?

[Barkeep49]

I think everyone should scan the same person they scanned tonight.
I think this might be a good idea of how to proceed. Not sure if it's better than just lynching you today, but it's enough to make me think it over and so I'm going to take my vote off of you, for now.

For example, if we can figure out who the class clown is.. then we know 100% that whatever they say is wrong... so if someone turns up as a student then they are a wolf...
I don't think it's going to be that easy. Let's assume, for a second, that besides for the teacher's pet and the class clown everyone is perfectly 50/50. There is a 1/16 chance that a player will get a wrong scan each of the first 4 nights. I don't disagree with you in the end, just saying it's going to be hard to figure out who is accurate or not, which only lends credence to the idea of proceeding with style 1 for now.


As mentioned above:
Unvote Lathum

[Lathum]

lets not forget the wolves can easily mess with us if we scan the same people tonight so it is far from perfect.

[Lathum]

I am off to school now. Be back later, hopefully everyone has checked on by then

[Dr. Sak]

So Lathum is thinking nfg and DC are wolves right?

I am thinking the same thing. Last night I threw my vote on NTN just because I thought there could be a potential wolf in a group where more than 1 scans showed up villager. nfg has been on my radar since the beginning, now DC coming to his aid really has me suspicious of her.

Also add to it that why would a wolf want a No Lynch vote...why would he even suggest it? It doesn't make any sense. It's scary how after the jawing that Lathum and I went through the last game I played in, I am starting to see his ways now.

Since I am torn between two...I am going with my initial gut feeling..

VOTE NFG

[jeheinz72]

I'm pickin' up what Lathum is puttin' down, moreso on voting DC than his innocence really (a lot of those statements can be used for exactly this purpose).

DC just seems to be playing very strangely. First she says wait, then she votes Lathum, then the whole "I won't defend myself and there I've submitted my PM"-thing. Just seems like she was trying to peek through the door and then nail it shut and never have to look back. Strange.

I'd be leaning towards her, then "the field".

I like what MikeVic is saying (his scan of GFR was correct, and now he's scanned a wolf). Something to look at for later.

[path12]

I am around today, but will not be checking in as often because our net traffic is being monitored for a few days and I don't want to risk losing access because of getting on here 15 times a day. Feel free to PM or leave questions in thread and I'll check back in a few hours.

[oliegirl]

Sorry I'm late...I slept in this morning, and have training until 4:30 today, so although I'll be online, I'll be coming in and out as we get breaks/I get bored/etc...

I scanned CR last night and he came back a student.

As for BK's "options" on how to play the game, I'm playing mostly as a regular game, but am definitely paying attention to the scanning patterns/results. I just think that we need more than 2 nights of scans (esp. as one of those were "involuntary" scans) before I start basing decisions more on scans than on anything else.

[Lorena]

Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.

Well that was pretty fuckin' stupid. If I'm alive, then Lathum is dead... DUH! I'm scanning bsak, why? Who the hell knows.

[mauchow]

I'm here for a little bit today. Gotta work later but hopefully will still have access to the forums. My submission for a scan was Dodger Chick but I obviously don't get a scan since I didn't vote yesterday.

So who am I going to be scanning tonight according to that list again?

[mauchow]

I'm scanning Clap according to that list from earlier... if he was a bodyguard, why not protect yourself, especially on night 1. Ah, well.

[MikeVic]

My gut yesterday was nfg, but I don't remember why now. My plans right now are to lynch either nfg or DC. But that can change. Not sure who to scan either, but I'd like someone else to scan clap too. Was I the only one?

[Passacaglia]

I think we can learn a little bit from the scans we have, and we might as well parse this now, just in case everyone scans the same people again, and it gets lost in the shuffle: Neither CR nor Mr. Wednesday are the Teacher's Pet, nor are they the fool. In fact, they're more likely than any of us to have a 50% ratio, which means they're worthless as seers. I'm not going to vote for Mr. Wednesday, since he scanned me.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Passacaglia]

My gut yesterday was nfg, but I don't remember why now. My plans right now are to lynch either nfg or DC. But that can change. Not sure who to scan either, but I'd like someone else to scan clap too. Was I the only one?

If you're interested, you're one of my nominees for the person who should suggest how we vote today.

[Passacaglia]

Damnit I meant scan!!

[MikeVic]

I don't know how we should scan yet. I liked Lathum's plan, but that allows wolves to mess with us too.

[Barkeep49]

Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?

[claphamsa]

Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?
yeah im fooled on this as well

[claphamsa]

my thought would be since they each came up with different reslts for thee same person... but since we all came up sutdent night 0 I just ingnroe it... cuz there is NO way it could have been random.

[Passacaglia]

Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?

They scanned the same person twice, once getting villager, once getting wolf. They can't be all right or all wrong.

[claphamsa]

I think all the night 0 scans were worht less. the chance that all 20 of us would come back as vilegars is like 0.0000000000003 (esitmate) so I just write off night 0. now if it happens between 1 and 2.....

[Passacaglia]

my thought would be since they each came up with different reslts for thee same person... but since we all came up sutdent night 0 I just ingnroe it... cuz there is NO way it could have been random.

I'm not saying it was random, but I can't imagine that whatever game mechanic was working N0 would allow the teacher's pet to scan a wolf, yet have him come up as villager. That's insane.

[Lorena]

You're right Lathum, i don't have a vote on me, I just get really frustrated when I add something to the discussion and it's used against me. I really fuckin' hate it, especially when accusations are being made against me. I might as well keep my mouth shut and stay UTR, these people seem to make it pretty far.

I can't remember who asked, but I did say we should hold off on voting until we have more information and my vote on Lathum was instinctual as I was frustrated as shit.

[claphamsa]

I'm not saying it was random, but I can't imagine that whatever game mechanic was working N0 would allow the teacher's pet to scan a wolf, yet have him come up as villager. That's insane.
then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....

[Passacaglia]

then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....

The non-random mechanism is likely affecting who we scan, not the outcome of the scan.

[Passacaglia]

then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....

The non-random mechanism is likely affecting who we scan, not the outcome of the scan.

[jeheinz72]

You're right Lathum, i don't have a vote on me, I just get really frustrated when I add something to the discussion and it's used against me. I really fuckin' hate it, especially when accusations are being made against me. I might as well keep my mouth shut and stay UTR, these people seem to make it pretty far.

I can't remember who asked, but I did say we should hold off on voting until we have more information and my vote on Lathum was instinctual as I was frustrated as shit.

I get ya, but that's WW yo.
Think of it as being permanently Mirandized but without the attorney.

[Passacaglia]

You're right Lathum, i don't have a vote on me, I just get really frustrated when I add something to the discussion and it's used against me. I really fuckin' hate it, especially when accusations are being made against me. I might as well keep my mouth shut and stay UTR, these people seem to make it pretty far.

I can't remember who asked, but I did say we should hold off on voting until we have more information and my vote on Lathum was instinctual as I was frustrated as shit.

Yeah, they make it pretty far, but I would imagine they don't get as much out of playing the game, if they don't actually play. Plus, if the villagers lose to an awesome wolf team, everyone bitches to the UTR villagers for not winning, after the game is over.

[claphamsa]

Yeah, they make it pretty far, but I would imagine they don't get as much out of playing the game, if they don't actually play. Plus, if the villagers lose to an awesome wolf team, everyone bitches to the UTR villagers for not winning, after the game is over.
I agree, Id rather have fun and lose than sit back....

[MikeVic]

Can someone do one of those history things on clap? :)

[jeheinz72]

Can someone do one of those history things on clap? :)

History thing?

[MikeVic]

History thing?

Who he voted for, his comments regarding people's proposed strategies, etc...

[claphamsa]

I voted for jackyl day 1, and never changed it cuz there was no point...

[claphamsa]

what else did you want to know?

[Lathum]

Popping in real quickly before class

A quick thought. I don't think we can completly discount the N0 scans. I am thinking they may be in there to help us determine who is the class clown and who is the teachers pet

[MikeVic]

I went through the thread from page 7 and on, looking for clap evidence... here's what my thought process was throughout the searching:

Post 411: Suggests we scan multiple times as a wolf result to be sure the person is a wolf. There were also a couple other posts where he doesn't want anything to do with scanning as a factor in voting.
450s: Confusion with the wording about being scanned. NFG, DC, and clap are all involved here.
519: clap reveals his scan shows Lathum came up student though... which throws me off.
567: Defends nfg again.
598: Pumpy votes for NFG early... maybe the wolves realize NFG could be a target for lynching, so Pumpy puts in a vote to show that just in case NFG is revealed to be a wolf, Pumpy voted against him and thus is not a wolf.

Remember this is my second game so I'm not quite sure what to do, but from the above I have suspicions about clap, NFG, DC, and Pumpy. Maybe Lathum is an outside shot. Anyone else follow this train of thinking?

[claphamsa]

I can assure you I never defeded NFG....

[claphamsa]

just said he coudl be a n00b. doesnt mean hes not at the top of my hit list...

[oliegirl]

Popping in real quickly before class

A quick thought. I don't think we can completly discount the N0 scans. I am thinking they may be in there to help us determine who is the class clown and who is the teachers pet

I agree...I don't think GM's give us any "useless" information. It's my experience that info may seem useless at first, but at some point becomes important and things start to fall into place.

IMO, some people are trying to put too much emphasis on the scans at this point in the game. It's like trying to use one day of voting as a "record" to base your next vote on. I'm not planning on putting much emphasis on scans until day 3 or so, unless of course something crazy happens and we know we have valid information. Until then, I'm just recording everything so that once everyone has 2 or 3 scans I can start to look at everything.

[claphamsa]

Other than that I agree with you, NFG DC and pumpy seem to be the wolfliest... unless we get somethign else ill vote NFG... but we have 8 hours....

[MikeVic]

I'm wanting to vote and scan two of the people I mentioned. I want to know if anyone else sees things to go otherwise. I still don't know what kind of scanning strategy we should do.

[SnDvls]

Other than that I agree with you, NFG DC and pumpy seem to be the wolfliest... unless we get somethign else ill vote NFG... but we have 8 hours....

I can understand where you are coming from on NFG & DC, but I must have missed what Pumpy has done other than not revealing his N-0 scan...can you or someone fill me in on this?

[claphamsa]

I welcome any scans.....

[claphamsa]

althouhg it would help to scan somoen who i know isnt good...

[MikeVic]

I can understand where you are coming from on NFG & DC, but I must have missed what Pumpy has done other than not revealing his N-0 scan...can you or someone fill me in on this?

The only reason I had was my reasoning for post 598. But that's not much really. I'm really skeptical on NFG at this point though.

[Barkeep49]

althouhg it would help to scan somoen who i know isnt good...
This brings up the intriguing idea that if we are reasonably sure someone is a wolf we might want to keep them around for a day or two to see what kind of scan results we'd get. Not sure how we'd reach a confident level of certainty about their wolfiness but it is an intriguing idea clap presents.

[jeheinz72]

I'm wanting to vote and scan two of the people I mentioned. I want to know if anyone else sees things to go otherwise. I still don't know what kind of scanning strategy we should do.

At this point I'm with you Mike. I'd like to whittle your list down to DC and NFG. Which we vote and which we scan doesn't really matter to me.

[claphamsa]

well i was not suggesting that :)

I was suggesting that if you alls wanns scan me fine. cuz im good, but its a waste... and it would help to scan somoen who may be bad...

[jeheinz72]

well i was not suggesting that :)

I was suggesting that if you alls wanns scan me fine. cuz im good, but its a waste... and it would help to scan somoen who may be bad...

I tend to believe you at this point. I don't quite get the suspicion on you and frankly think others have done more to warrant actions today.

[st.cronin]

Ok, I scanned GRF n-0 and he got killed. So I'm a little nervous about revealing the results of last night's scan.

Can somebody also remind me who else had scanned GRF?

[Passacaglia]

Ok, I scanned GRF n-0 and he got killed. So I'm a little nervous about revealing the results of last night's scan.

Can somebody also remind me who else had scanned GRF?

The Heinz and MikeVic.

[Passacaglia]

For their N1 scans, The Heinz didn't get one, and MikeVic scanned claphamsa, who came up wolf.

[st.cronin]

Has anybody tried to make a case for lynching MikeVic today (still not caught up, sorry for the questions).

[st.cronin]

dola, or the heiny for that matter.

[Passacaglia]

I don't think I've seen a case for either of them. Also, you're the only blank on my spreadsheet.

[st.cronin]

My first instinct is that GRF was killed by somebody who scanned him n-0. Of course, it might have been somebody who claimed to scan somebody else, too.

[jeheinz72]

No one has tried to lynch me since I've been around :)

[jeheinz72]

My first instinct is that GRF was killed by somebody who scanned him n-0. Of course, it might have been somebody who claimed to scan somebody else, too.

Why's that?

And FTR, I didn't even know I had scanned him N0 until he was already dead (since I missed all of Day One).

[st.cronin]

Because the setup is that the wolves don't know each other. So, if you're a wolf, who do you kill? If you know who the teacher's pet is, that's first choice. Second choice would be somebody like me or Barkeep or Lathum - somebody who, as a villager, would scare the wolves. Third choice would be somebody that you KNOW is a villager - that way you don't kill one of your own. I think that third choice makes the most sense for GRF, unless he somehow gave away that he was the Jock.

[MikeVic]

How do you KNOW someone is a villager? And was it said that the wolves don't know each other? I missed that.

[Lathum]

We all know you scanned me Cronin so lets have it :)

[claphamsa]

yeah, when was it decided that the wolves dont know eachother? Cronin? paging cronin?

[jeheinz72]

It actually says in the rules that the wolves do know each other and can communicate privately.

[st.cronin]

How do you KNOW someone is a villager? And was it said that the wolves don't know each other? I missed that.

Path said that on day 1, although I think he phrased it with some doubt - the wolves don't necessarily know each other, or something.

And if you are a wolf, and for some reason you trust your n-0 scan, you know that person is a villager/wolf - that's why I think GRF was killed, I think he was scanned by a wolf, and came up villager.

Note that I don't necessarily think that the wolf who scanned him would claim to have scanned him, so I'm not thinking too hard about a vote for you, Mike Vic.

[st.cronin]

Hmm, now I look at the rules and it does say that the wolves know each other. I thought that was a topic of conversation throughout yesterday, did I dream that?

[claphamsa]

I think you took too much acid as a kid....

[Pumpy Tudors]

For some reason, people did wonder if the wolves knew each other. That discussion did happen. As pointed out, however, the rules do state that the wolves know each other from the beginning of the game.

[mauchow]

Might as well get a vote in now since I might not be able to check back before the day is over. I am sure I will be able to, so if I see the need to change my vote, I will. If nfg is a wolf, this tells me that I'm not the 100% scanner since I saw him as a student the first time around.

vote nfg

[Dr. Sak]

Hmm, now I look at the rules and it does say that the wolves know each other. I thought that was a topic of conversation throughout yesterday, did I dream that?

Quick licking those toads...

[Dr. Sak]

Quit not quick...

dammit

[st.cronin]

I wonder if the wolves even know all their partners yet. These first couple days could be crucial, they might not even be talking strategy at this point.

I guess this is pretty much the extent of what I was remembering as "significant discussion." Never mind, I guess.

[Lathum]

So St.Cronin and SndVls are the only 2 who haven't revealed there scan results, correct?

[Lathum]

NM, I think all we are waiting on is Cronin

[Barkeep49]

Path- Do the wolves know each other to start the game?

IIRC in the first edition on this one they didn't.
Generally, yes.

Here's the exchange about wolves knowing each other.

The rules say:

The wolves will know each other at the start of the game and will be able to communicate privately. Wolves may also have another ability or role that they may use. These roles will not be made public until death.

The rules are far more absolute than what he said yesterday. The hedging could either be to insert some uncertainty into the game, with path having forgotten that he'd been straightforward in the rules, or perhaps suggesting that there is a conversion or some such thing.

But I think we should assume the wolves can coordinate their actions.

[SnDvls]

So St.Cronin and SndVls are the only 2 who haven't revealed there scan results, correct?

nope I already revealied mine I scanned barkeep per Grey's plan and he came up a student for me.

I can find the post # for you if you want

[st.cronin]

Can somebody post the scan results for last night?

[SnDvls]

dola - oops didn't read the next post

[Lathum]

Can somebody post the scan results for last night?

I am working on that right now, I am waiting for you

[ntndeacon]

Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?

CR gave exactly opposite scans of Lathum. don't know about Mr. Wed.

[SnDvls]

CR gave exactly opposite scans of Lathum. don't know about Mr. Wed.


Don't know if I should really be saying this out loud, but here goes.
So should we as students be trying on our own to figure out if we are the teacher's pet/class clown too by doing additional scans on someone we already scanned to see if we get the same result.

I'll drop this line of thinking out loud if it's determined not a good idea.

[Barkeep49]

Don't know if I should really be saying this out loud, but here goes.
So should we as students be trying on our own to figure out if we are the teacher's pet/class clown too by doing additional scans on someone we already scanned to see if we get the same result.

I'll drop this line of thinking out loud if it's determined not a good idea.
I think the idea of duplicate scanning is a way, without killing people, of starting to figure out our accuracy rate.

[Passacaglia]

Here you go:

Number Name Night 1
3 Barkeep49 Lathum
19 Bsak16 Chief Rum
5 Chief Rum Lathum
1 claphamsa Lathum
9 Dodgerchick Barkeep49
20 Greyroofoo X
7 jeheinz72 X
2 Lathum Dodgerchick
6 mauboy1 X
16 MikeVic claphamsa
21 Mr. Wednesday Passacaglia
11 nfg22 claphamsa
10 ntndeacon Lathum
12 oliegirl Chief Rum
8 Passacaglia RendeR
18 Pumpy Tudors nfg22
4 RendeR Lathum
13 saldana Barkeep49
17 SnDvls Barkeep49
14 st.cronin
15 The Jackal Barkeep49

[ntndeacon]

Don't know if I should really be saying this out loud, but here goes.
So should we as students be trying on our own to figure out if we are the teacher's pet/class clown too by doing additional scans on someone we already scanned to see if we get the same result.

I'll drop this line of thinking out loud if it's determined not a good idea.

it isn't a bad idea, but we will have no data at all on a fair many members, me included. And I have a strange feeling you won't just take my word that I am on the side of right.

[st.cronin]

The teacher's pet knows who he is, I think. I think the fool thinks he's the teacher's pet.

Ok, I scanned Passacaglia, and he scanned as a wolf. I don't necessarily buy that scan, but putting it out there. I do not advocate lynching anybody who scanned as a wolf last night. I'll stick with my d1 vote, no real reason, and don't see a compelling case for anybody else:

VOTE RENDER

[SnDvls]

it isn't a bad idea, but we will have no data at all on a fair many members, me included. And I have a strange feeling you won't just take my word that I am on the side of right.

I guess there would be someone or someones also in their own way verifying others. With so many players it might just be too hard to do that though.

[st.cronin]

Here you go:

I was looking for a list that showed the results of the scan, too.

[Lathum]

Name Night 1

claphamsa- Lathum- Student
Barkeep49- Lathum- Student
RendeR- Lathum- Wolf
Chief Rum- Lathum- Wolf
ntndeacon- Lathum- wolf

The Jackal- Barkeep49- Student
saldana- Barkeep49- Student
Dodgerchick- Barkeep49- Student
SnDvls- Barkeep- Student

nfg22- claphamsa- Student
MikeVic- Clap - Wolf

Bsak16- Chief Rum- Student
oliegirl- ChiefRum- Student

st.cronin Passacaglia Wolf
Mr. Wednesday- Passacaglia- Wolf

Pumpy Tudors- nfg22- Wolf


Lathum- Dodgerchick- Wolf

Passacaglia- RendeR- Student

mauboy1- X
jeheinz72- X

[SnDvls]

The basics of this game are very simple.

Each student is an imperfect seer. They will each have a different rate of accuracy (success) on scans (from 0% to 100%), based on the total of 5d20 (five rolls of a 20 side die). They will not know their accuracy rate. One student (the Teacher's Pet) will have a 100% accuracy. One student (the Class Clown) will have a 0% accuracy.




St. C - the rules seem to state differently. At least how I interperit them.

I didn't play in the 1st incarnation of this game (or if I did I was killed so quickly I don't remember it) so what was the situation in that one?

[Lathum]

OK, above is the list of everyone who was scanned and also the results.

I think it is safe to assume BK is not a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

I was looking for a list that showed the results of the scan, too.

Sorry about that. On my spreadsheet, the scan results are in color, and that didn't flow through to here.

[st.cronin]

You are correct on the percentages. The teacher's pet will know their role, the class clown will not.

SnDvls: What do you make of this post?

[Dr. Sak]

I think it is safe to assume BK is not a wolf.

If everyone in that list is not a wolf. If two people scanning him are wolves...and collaborated with him to say he is a student then we have an issue.

[Passacaglia]

OK, above is the list of everyone who was scanned and also the results.

I think it is safe to assume BK is not a wolf.

I don't see how that assumption could be made. Isn't it almost as likely that all those scans are wrong?

[st.cronin]

OK, above is the list of everyone who was scanned and also the results.

I think it is safe to assume BK is not a wolf.

Totally disagree with this assumption.

[Lathum]

If everyone in that list is not a wolf. If two people scanning him are wolves...and collaborated with him to say he is a student then we have an issue.

that would leave a huge trail and why the risk? a positive scan won't really hust you.

I don't see how that assumption could be made. Isn't it almost as likely that all those scans are wrong?

It is pretty improbable, but not impossible that all 4 scans are wrong.

[SnDvls]

SnDvls: What do you make of this post?

hmmm...guess I missed that one.

[SnDvls]

dola - that could have changed too as the rules were edited on 2-15-08 and the post was from 2-12-08

Path - can you clarify this for us thanks

[Barkeep49]

Lathum: Why isn't it just as likely that all the scans on me are wrong as right? I happen to know they're all right, but then again I know my role. How do you reach your conclusion?

[The Jackal]

Hmm, this is tough. I really don't feel compelled to vote for Lathum, but he might be the best chance we've got to get info from a death if he's not a wolf.

[Dr. Sak]

Killing a villager...especially one that could be informative like Lathum would be a mistake. Any villager lynch is a bad one!

[Lathum]

Lathum: Why isn't it just as likely that all the scans on me are wrong as right? I happen to know they're all right, but then again I know my role. How do you reach your conclusion?

I don't think they are all right but I think the odds are you are a student

[Lathum]

VOTE DODGERCHICK

now that all the scans are in I feel comfortable casting this vote.

[st.cronin]

What is the argument against Dodgerchick?

[RendeR]

What is the argument against Dodgerchick?


Yeah, I wasn't really understanding this either, I see a few people with scans that say wolf, I'm wondering why DC is getting so much attention when only 1 of them is hers?

[RendeR]

The teacher's pet knows who he is, I think. I think the fool thinks he's the teacher's pet.

Ok, I scanned Passacaglia, and he scanned as a wolf. I don't necessarily buy that scan, but putting it out there. I do not advocate lynching anybody who scanned as a wolf last night. I'll stick with my d1 vote, no real reason, and don't see a compelling case for anybody else:

VOTE RENDER


DOH! I just saw this, bastard!

[st.cronin]

I just noticed, pass has 2 scans for wolf, 1 for villager. That's a worse rate than Lathum.

[mauchow]

I'm at work now, but like I said, I should have access, which I do, so if I see something I'll change if needed.

[Lathum]

What is the argument against Dodgerchick?

I laid out my reasons here. Plus after this she started acting, oddly.

Plus I scanned her as a wolf.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=1662463&postcount=593

[st.cronin]

10:23, DC casts a very early vote. Suspicios move IMO since there is still a ton of information yet to be revealed out there.

I disagree that an early vote is suspicious.


10:39- Pumpy jumps on board

Ok, but this is a reason for voting for PUMPY.


DC argues for a day one lynch when clearly it is a poor move considering this ruleset.

I think this is questionable.


Calls day 2 a crapshoot when again, it is obvious there is far more information out there this game then usual.

Day 2 is a crapshoot if there's no lynch day 1. I agree with her reasoning here.



stays with heinze, pretty easy move to vote for the guy we know won't be here.

Its as easy a move for a villager as it is for a wolf.



This is where I point out what I feel is a slip of the tounge fron nfg22



I call him out on it



I explain why



Another reason why he seems suspiscous. I also was true to my word and didn't scan him. But Pumpy did and he came back a wolf.



DC comes to nfg22's defense. This really pinged me and is the reason I scanned her.



Here DC continues to defend nfg22 and some of his other statements. Again, this is why I scanned her and she came back wolf.

So you're seeing connections between nfg and DC and possibly Pumpy?

[mauchow]

unvote rfg

vote no lynch

Another day's info without another villager dying is a good thing.

[Lathum]

Yes, I see a connection between DC and nfg. Pumpy I'm not sure about.

You can disagree all you want about a day 1 lynch in this game but to say you think day 2 would be a crapshoot with this ruleset is just plain wrong IMO

[st.cronin]

I guess I'd rather vote for DC than nfg. Does anybody have the current vote count?

[The Jackal]

I'm going to be out from 5-8ish, possibly later, so just in case I can't check in before the deadline, I'm going to make a vote.

I can see people saying this strategy is no good on day two, but I don't feel strongly at all about any of the candidates. I'll keep checking before i leave (another half hour or so), in case I change my mind.

vote no lynch

[st.cronin]

I really don't get the no-lynch phenomenon. If we're playing using normal werewolf strategy, we need lynches as data points. If we're playing using scan data, we need lynches to tell us which scanners are more accurate.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Pass

I admit that two scans is not enough to convict, but it is enough to suspect.

[Barkeep49]

I'll just point out that at some point we need to start lynching people otherwise it's going to be very hard to weed out the wolves. The old "Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs" holds true in WW.

[ntndeacon]

I probably will not scan the same person tonight. I would like to get some info on some that aren't as of yet scanned.

[Pumpy Tudors]

If you have sex with a wolf, does that make you a wolf too?

[oliegirl]

We need to lynch someone tonight guys...we need to start accumulating information and seeing whose scans are accurate and whose aren't...and the only way to do that is to lynch. I'm not saying cast your vote totally based on scans, but once we can compare vote results with scan results, we can start to compile some valuable information.

[Lathum]

I'll just point out that at some point we need to start lynching people otherwise it's going to be very hard to weed out the wolves. The old "Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs" holds true in WW.

I agree we need to lynch.

DC is my first choice, but I am willing to move to nfg22 or Pass if need be.

I probably will not scan the same person tonight. I would like to get some info on some that aren't as of yet scanned.

This surprises me coming from you. What good is the info on other people if we can't validate the accuracy of it.

[ntndeacon]

If you have sex with a wolf, does that make you a wolf too?

No that makes you Pumpy :D

[Barkeep49]

Anyone have a vote count?

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm sticking with my vote for nfg22 for now, but I'm willing to jump over to Pass if we're sure of getting enough votes to lynch him.

[path12]

dola - that could have changed too as the rules were edited on 2-15-08 and the post was from 2-12-08

Path - can you clarify this for us thanks

I changed my mind on that as I fleshed out the ruleset a bit further. It's mentioned somewhere later in the thread, but to clarify:

Neither the Teacher's Pet or Class Clown are aware of their identity. All they know is that they are students.

[ntndeacon]

I agree we need to lynch.

DC is my first choice, but I am willing to move to nfg22 or Pass if need be.



This surprises me coming from you. What good is the info on other people if we can't validate the accuracy of it.


Yea maybe Iam not thinking well at the moment, a nap will help Ithink to clear my sick addled brain.

I still am leary of not having any data on the what 6-7 folks? we can work on accuracy problems and Ican certainly hit the same person tomorrow. the un marked ones have me more concerned than my possible lack of accuracy.

[ntndeacon]

I will talk with y'all later.

[RendeR]

I probably will not scan the same person tonight. I would like to get some info on some that aren't as of yet scanned.



is there anyone who has not been scanned at all? I can certainly help get a duplicate scan in on them with you if there are any. I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention ;)