WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[path12]

Last time we visited the town of Fortune, there was not much good luck at all. Fortune is a town of wizards and universities, where young seers, bodyguards and the like are trained to scour the earth to rid it of their mortal enemy, werewolves.

The leading university, Mr. Felix's Divination Nation! (motto: You buy, we scry!) has finally gotten past the unfortunate crisis of a year ago, when most of it's graduating class was eaten by undercover wolves while Mr. Felix went on a publicity tour for his book, Do You See What I See, You Wolfy Bastards?

Naturally, having his class killed didn't exactly spur sales, and Mr. Felix has spent much of the intervening time personally clearing everyone involved with the school. There is a new class about to graduate, and while they might not be the most skilled seers to date, they are at least enthusiastic, and most importantly, they are still alive. It's been a hard year for Mr. Felix and he will be glad to see students graduate once again. It will prove to the world that Divination Nation! remains the leading seer university in Fortune.

As a matter of fact, things are finally secure enough for Mr. Felix to drum up some publicity for the upcoming graduation, and hopefully spur a few more book sales (security ain't cheap!). What Mr. Felix didn't realize is that the Anti-Werewolf pesticide sprayed around the perimeter of the school was only one-quarter strength, due to a new wolf-control technician and a spy at the pesticide company. One-quarter strength will not stop skilled werewolves. Such as the ones that have infiltrated the upcoming graduate class. Will Divination Nation! survive?

Looks like Mr. Felix is in for another difficult week.

[path12]

The basics of this game are very simple.

Each student is an imperfect seer. They will each have a different rate of accuracy (success) on scans (from 0% to 100%), based on the total of 5d20 (five rolls of a 20 side die). They will not know their accuracy rate. One student (the Teacher's Pet) will have a 100% accuracy. One student (the Class Clown) will have a 0% accuracy.

In addition, players may also have another ability or role that they may use. This will be explained to each player when they receive their role. These additional roles will not be made public until death.

The game will begin with a night zero where each student will receive a scan of another player, subject to their accuracy rate.

Each day, players will vote on one of their own to be lynched. The player with the most votes at deadline will be lynched. There are procedures in place in case of ties. These will be apparent at that time.

Each night, players will submit via PM the name of another player that they would like to scan. Some players will be able to take other actions, some of which may supercede scanning. These will be explained to those players with their role.

Voting is done in thread, and must be bolded and in blue at the end of a post, for example:

I think path12 is bad.

VOTE PATH12


Unvotes are done the same way:

I've changed my mind.

UNVOTE PATH12


You may change your vote as often as you like prior to deadline. Players who do not vote will forfeit all night actions for that night.

The students win if they eliminate all wolves.

The wolves will know each other at the start of the game and will be able to communicate privately. Wolves may also have another ability or role that they may use. These roles will not be made public until death.

The wolves win if they achieve a 1-1 ratio with the students.

Roles will be fully revealed upon lynch or night kill. Accuracy rates will not be.

I'm planning on using a modified 24 hour clock for this game, with day deadlines at 9PM Eastern, and night actions due by 1AM Eastern (four hours after deadline). Conditional night actions will be accepted at anytime.

Your friendly GM reserves the right to revise these rules up to game start. Please do not hesitate to ask me questions via PM at any time on any matter. My goal is for everyone to have a great time.

[path12]

Player list:

1. claphamsa -- STUDENT, EMPATH, KILLED NIGHT 4
2. Lathum -- STUDENT, LYNCHED DAY 2
3. Barkeep49 -- CUNNING WOLF, LYNCHED DAY 9
4. RendeR -- BRUTAL WOLF, LYNCHED DAY 5
5. Chief Rum -- CLASS CLOWN, KILLED DAY 5
6. mauboy1 -- STUDENT, KILLED NIGHT 7
7. jeheinz72 -- MATH WHIZ, KILLED NIGHT 6
8. Passacaglia -- STUDENT, KILLED NIGHT 2
9. Dodgerchick -- STUDENT, JOCK, LYNCHED DAY 4
10. ntndeacon -- STUDENT, SURVIVES!!
11. nfg22 -- STUDENT, LYNCHED DAY 3
12. oliegirl -- TEACHER'S PET, KILLED NIGHT 6
13. saldana -- STUDENT, KILLED NIGHT 3
14. st.cronin -- WOLF, SHOT DAY 4
15. The Jackal -- LONE WOLF, LYNCHED DAY 8
16. MikeVic -- KNOW IT ALL, STUDENT, SURVIVES!!
17. SnDvls -- WOLF SPY, CONVERTED TO STUDENT, SURVIVES!!
18. Pumpy Tudors -- STUDENT, LYNCHED DAY 5
19. Bsak16 -- MATH WHIZ, EMPATH, KILLED NIGHT 4
20. Greyroofoo -- JOCK, KILLED NIGHT 1
21. Mr. Wednesday -- STUDENT, SURVIVES!!

Alternate list:
1. Alan T

IMPORTANT POSTS

Final Day 1 vote post #454
Night 1 result post #504
Final Day 2 vote post #1042
Night 2 result post #1093
Final Day 3 vote post #1310
Night 3 result post #1336
Night 5 result post #1855 (sorry for missing a couple there)
Final Day 6 vote post #1962
Night 6 result post #1975
Final Day 7 vote post #2096
Night 7 result post #2116
Final Day 8 vote post #2166

[claphamsa]

cnat do worse in this game

[Lathum]

in

[Lathum]

I just re read tho original game where I had really bad luck night 0. It was a blast and should be pretty crazy with more people.

[Barkeep49]

in

[RendeR]

Sign me up!

[Chief Rum]

Sure I'll play

[mauchow]

i'm in....................................

[jeheinz72]

I'm in

[Barkeep49]

So wolves are seers in addition to being wolves? Or just wolves?

[Passacaglia]

in

[Lorena]

In

[path12]

So wolves are seers in addition to being wolves? Or just wolves?

Wolves may or may not have seer powers also, depending on if there is anything they need to locate. They will have an ability to blend in with the students however, if that's what you're asking.

[path12]

In

Yay!!! :D

[Passacaglia]

Just to clarify the percentages -- let's say I roll a 55. That means if I scan someone, and he's a wolf, there's a 55% chance you tell me he's a wolf, and a 45% chance you tell me he's a villager?

Also, will the teacher's pet and class clown know their roles?

[path12]

Just to clarify the percentages -- let's say I roll a 55. That means if I scan someone, and he's a wolf, there's a 55% chance you tell me he's a wolf, and a 45% chance you tell me he's a villager?

Also, will the teacher's pet and class clown know their roles?

You are correct on the percentages. The teacher's pet will know their role, the class clown will not.

[Lorena]

I'm working on getting 2 people aboard.. any idea when it'll start?

[ntndeacon]

in

[path12]

I'm working on getting 2 people aboard.. any idea when it'll start?

Well, it won't be until Barkeep's game is over at least. I'd guess we're looking at a late week start or next Monday if the weekend becomes an issue.

[path12]

BTW, can anyone tell an old man how to make a link? I'd put a post in Off Topic if I knew how to link it......

[Barkeep49]

Well, it won't be until Barkeep's game is over at least. I'd guess we're looking at a late week start or next Monday if the weekend becomes an issue.
And I can't tell you exactly when my game is over, but I can't imagine it running into the weekend again so I would think next Monday would likely be the latest this would start.

[Alan T]

BTW, can anyone tell an old man how to make a link? I'd put a post in Off Topic if I knew how to link it......

Tell people to go to this thread:

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=63754

[Barkeep49]

BTW, can anyone tell an old man how to make a link? I'd put a post in Off Topic if I knew how to link it......
Use the following Enter Text you want linked here (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?p=1657491)

[Alan T]

Tell people to go to this thread:

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=63754


I guess I didn't really tell you how to do it though.. Right click my link I provided and choose Copy link location.. Then just paste it in the message window of your post

[path12]

Thanks, guys!

[Alan T]

Path put me down as an alternate if you need one. I don't think I should play in this one though. In-laws come in to town on Sunday until March 5th.

If I haven't jumped off of a bridge by then, I'll be back regularly at that point. :)

If you run into a bind, drop me a PM though.

[nfg22]

Ill take...never done one of these online tho...hopefully ill be ok..

[oliegirl]

I'm in.

[saldana]

in

[path12]

Ill take...never done one of these online tho...hopefully ill be ok..

Welcome! Feel free to PM with any questions.

[Lorena]

Okay, i'm a little rusty but what does:

I'm planning on using a modified 24 hour clock for this game, with day deadlines at 9PM Eastern, and night actions due by 1AM Eastern (four hours after deadline). Conditional night actions will be accepted at anytime.

mean?

[path12]

The 24 hour clock is one where there is no night phase and all night orders have to be in by the lynch deadline. While it's convenient, I think it doesn't allow you to react to deadline shenanigans. So this is just a short night phase where you have 4 hours to get your night action orders in.

The conditional orders just means that you can submit them anytime during the day and say something like:

Scan path12 unless he is lynched, in which case scan Dodgerchick.

[st.cronin]

In.

[The Jackal]

In

[MikeVic]

I guess I can try. Can I be Roger Dorn again.

[Lorena]

I guess I can try. Can I be Roger Dorn again.

Booya!! Thanks for signing up Mike :)

Now if we can get the other person to play... :p

[path12]

I guess I can try. Can I be Roger Dorn again.

You bet. Just don't dive for the ball. Wouldn't want to hurt yourself.

[claphamsa]

The 24 hour clock is one where there is no night phase and all night orders have to be in by the lynch deadline. While it's convenient, I think it doesn't allow you to react to deadline shenanigans. So this is just a short night phase where you have 4 hours to get your night action orders in.

The conditional orders just means that you can submit them anytime during the day and say something like:

Scan path12 unless he is lynched, in which case scan Dodgerchick.
FYI I love the timing! These 10 PM deadlines have been killing me!

[Barkeep49]

FYI I love the timing! These 10 PM deadlines have been killing me!
They've been killing me too. I'll be so happy when I'm not out working Mon-Thursday until at least 9:30.

[SnDvls]

in

[Passacaglia]

Path put me down as an alternate if you need one. I don't think I should play in this one though. In-laws come in to town on Sunday until March 5th.

If I haven't jumped off of a bridge by then, I'll be back regularly at that point. :)

If you run into a bind, drop me a PM though.

Wow. I just realized how long that is. I went on and on to everyone when my in-laws were in for six days. But you've got me beat -- provided you make it through the whole time.

[Alan T]

Wow. I just realized how long that is. I went on and on to everyone when my in-laws were in for six days. But you've got me beat -- provided you make it through the whole time.

My mother in-law comes for 2 weeks at a time every time she comes, if not longer. Ever since my wife's medical issues last year and our new baby born last year, I guess she just wants to be here as much as possible. She's actually lied about being sick for 2-3 days after holidays several times to stay longer.

I usually just grin and bear it and work alot those two weeks :)

[Pumpy Tudors]

In

[Lorena]

In

VICTORY!!!!

Thanks Pumpy :)

[Schmidty]

Well, after my crappy play in the current game, I was going to take a break, but if Pumpy's in, I'll be in. It should be zany.

[MikeVic]

Yes!

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'M GONNA SHIT UP THIS GAME THE SAME WAY THAT THE JOLLY GREEN GIANT SHIT UP MY DINNER

[hoopsguy]

DC, great work on the recruiting. Looks like this could be a fun game.

I'll have to read along, as I'm on the road for work next week.

[SnDvls]

My mother in-law comes for 2 weeks at a time every time she comes, if not longer. Ever since my wife's medical issues last year and our new baby born last year, I guess she just wants to be here as much as possible. She's actually lied about being sick for 2-3 days after holidays several times to stay longer.

I usually just grin and bear it and work alot those two weeks :)

one advantage I never looked at to having almost all my wife's and my family in town...no one stays over ;)

[Lathum]

Oh my, this is gonna be interesting

[Lorena]

DC, great work on the recruiting. Looks like this could be a fun game.

I'll have to read along, as I'm on the road for work next week.

I had to cash in some serious favors to get them to play.

[saldana]

In

making my first day vote choice the easiest it has ever been

[SnDvls]

I had to cash in some serious favors to get them to play.

pks pls k thanks

j/k ;)

[Abe Sargent]

Thanks path for sliding up.

[Lorena]

pks pls k thanks

j/k ;)

. (http://www.flickr.com/photos/lorenamarks)

[path12]

Thanks path for sliding up.

C'mon Abe, you know you want to play.... ;)

[Abe Sargent]

Nope, but thanks. No time at all. Too much writing and interviewing and filling out applications and editing short stories and I wrote chapter seven of my novel today and applied to three jobs today and so forth. Back when I had a desk job, I had the time for WW, but now that I am umemployed, mostly, I do not. It's weird.

[Dr. Sak]

I'll join!

VOTE PUMPY

[Lorena]

I'll join!

VOTE PUMPY

LOL, awesome :)

[Dr. Sak]

And also...Lathum is a fish...that's all for now

[Lathum]

And also...Lathum is a fish...that's all for now

argh:mad:

[path12]

At this point as long as Barkeep's game ends by the end of this week I'm planning on sending out roles Sunday night and having Day 1 on Monday.

If his game is still going this will move out of course.

[SnDvls]

At this point as long as Barkeep's game ends by the end of this week I'm planning on sending out roles Sunday night and having Day 1 on Monday.

If his game is still going this will move out of course.

as of right now there are only 4 people that this would effect/overlap
so I say go for it even if BK's game is still going on.

[path12]

as of right now there are only 4 people that this would effect/overlap
so I say go for it even if BK's game is still going on.

We're close enough to the weekend to wait until next week I think. Besides, the hip yet traditional Ms. Path would kick my ass from here to Sunday if I got on the computer tonight to do WW stuff.

[SnDvls]

I'd just like to add...if you are going to not be active or just drop out in this game please let me know as I won't play


;)

[saldana]

I'd just like to add...if you are going to not be active or just drop out in this game please let me know as I won't play


;)

awwwww shit....i was planning on not even checking in, much less actually paying attention and posting during the game....i love it when people do that.

[Lorena]

So when can I vote MikeVic?

[path12]

So when can I vote MikeVic?

Any time you please. Vote early and often!

[path12]

I'm finalizing roles tomorrow and will send them out late afternoon Sunday. Last chance to sign up!

[MikeVic]

So when can I vote MikeVic?

Hey what?!? I know my first day vote now.

[Lorena]

Hey what?!? I know my first day vote now.

;)

[Schmidty]

Hey path, please replace me if at all possible. I'm just not feeling up to playing, so I might as well work on my game that's coming up.

[Greyroofoo]

I'm up for playing, the first time in many moons

[Greyroofoo]

dola, this is a newer persons game right?

[Mr. Wednesday]

In.

[Chief Rum]

dola, this is a newer persons game right?

Well, only path knows thew real details, but that's what he said. And don't worry us vets usually hold off killing newbies for a day or so. ;)

[path12]

dola, this is a newer persons game right?

It should be fine for newer players, the stated rules are pretty basic. If you ever have any questions feel free to either PM me or ask me in thread. That goes for everyone of course.

[path12]

Hey path, please replace me if at all possible. I'm just not feeling up to playing, so I might as well work on my game that's coming up.

No prob Schmidty. I'll miss ya though.

[path12]

Also, will the teacher's pet and class clown know their roles?

The teacher's pet will know their role, the class clown will not.

I've changed my mind on this, by the way. Neither the teacher's pet or the class clown will know their roles. Just wanted to clarify.

[path12]

I've also cleaned up and made a few minor rule changes, listed on post #2. I think the ruleset is pretty much finalized now.

[nfg22]

is there a chance that if we are an imperfect seer that we may see a villager as a wolf?

[path12]

is there a chance that if we are an imperfect seer that we may see a villager as a wolf?

There sure is. Let's say your accuracy rate is 55%. You scan path12. You get the reply: Path12 is a student.

There is a 55% chance that this is true. But you won't know your accuracy rate. There are ways for that to be determined however.

[Lorena]

Hey path, please replace me if at all possible. I'm just not feeling up to playing, so I might as well work on my game that's coming up.

Aww :(

[path12]

OK, we'll close up signups with 21 players. Looks like a good group. Roles will go out tomorrow late afternoon for a Monday day 1 deadline.

[path12]

All roles should be sent out now -- if you haven't received a PM from me let me know as soon as possible.

Day 1 is underway. Deadline is at 9 PM Eastern time on Monday.

[Lorena]

Got my PM.. cool, looking forward to this :)

[claphamsa]

checking is a vilegar! I was gonna complain.... but after last game it is fo the best :(

[Lathum]

Checking in. As I see no reason to not reveal my night 0 scan it was Clap and he came up good.

[claphamsa]

vote jackyl

cuz no one belived he was bad last game :P

[claphamsa]

thanks lathum :)

I scanned someone named pump twodoors, so I might be the fool (or the boss is drunk)

[Barkeep49]

I know this is going to put a big target on me, but I have to reveal:

I am a seer.

[Lathum]

did Pumpy come up good or bad?

[SnDvls]

vote jackyl

cuz no one belived he was bad last game :P



last game he was one of the last 2 good people along w/ Schmidty

or are you talking about the last incarnation of this game?


checking in too

[oliegirl]

Checking in as a student/villager. Like Lathum, I also scanned Claphamsa night 0 and he came up as a student.

[Barkeep49]

Sorry should have shared this as well: Mr. W came up as a student.

[nfg22]

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

[Lathum]

Path- Do the wolves know each other to start the game?

IIRC in the first edition on this one they didn't.

[MikeVic]

Hi. I'm also a student.

[MikeVic]

Oh and Greyroofoo came up good.

[mauchow]

checking in.

nfg22 is a student.

[claphamsa]

good


did Pumpy come up good or bad?

[claphamsa]

Im thinking there will be more wolves than normal this game... since there is a chance we nail one night one, on a random scan.....

[claphamsa]

oh eyah and I have a "Convinient" 1045 PM hockey game tongiht :(

so ill be on later!

[nfg22]

Maybe less tho, because we could nail a student as a wolf...then we kill our own feeling justified.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well, don't start trying to kill me. You're going to need me around until the end. I'm a student, and everybody loves me!

[MikeVic]

I'm a student but not everyone likes me. :(

[nfg22]

Im the class clown, I just know it...

[Dr. Sak]

Well, don't start trying to kill me. You're going to need me around until the end. I'm a student, and everybody loves me!

Your wife said you smell a bit wolfy. She should know...she is a professor.

[SnDvls]

should have added Chief Rum came up good

[Pumpy Tudors]

Your wife said you smell a bit wolfy. She should know...she is a professor.
She only said that because I howled as I sprayed my pheromones all over her.

[Chief Rum]

Yes, you're right, I am good and a seer. :)

I scanned Lathum, and SOB...he actualyl came up good. So I in fact must be the fool.

J/K Lathum. :)

[Lathum]

lol

[path12]

Path- Do the wolves know each other to start the game?

IIRC in the first edition on this one they didn't.

Generally, yes.

[The Jackal]

Uh, thanks for the vote clap. And to think, I had you as my beneficiary from day one until you were lynched! Bad choice on my part, clearly.

I promise to be more active in this game - especially without those money conditions (no offense to barkeep, it was a great game but I just didn't have the time to keep up with what the hell was going on).

For now I'll abstain from voting, we do have almost 24 hours to decide.

How many wolves do we think there are? Four, five?

[Chief Rum]

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

Are you just being facetious here, or were you told in your PM that saldana was your N0 scan and came up good?

[Chief Rum]

Generally, yes.

Generally?

I sorta hate you right now. :)

[RendeR]

Joe Schmoe Villager here. I scanned Bsak and, go figure, he turned up good.

Has ANYONE had a scan that said someone was wolfish? Did anyone else get Bsak? I noticed a couple people got duplicate night 0 scans.

[The Jackal]

Generally, yes.

Generally.. what hijinks are you up to.. ;)

[path12]

Generally?

I sorta hate you right now. :)

:cool:

[The Jackal]

Oh, and I scanned MikeVic, and he's clean.

[Chief Rum]

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

On second thought, I am pretty sure you mean he was your N0 scan, since he hadn't even posted since the start of the game.

Let me know if I am wrong, but I am counting your post here as a "villager" scan of saldana.

[nfg22]

Are you just being facetious here, or were you told in your PM that saldana was your N0 scan and came up good?

No actually I am lying because we are both wolves:eek: ...ha gave it away. I say "seems to be" because I am most likely imperfect in my seeing abilities.

[nfg22]

Dola, why would I be facetious about that?

[Barkeep49]

"seem to be" was also in my message, fwiw.

[Chief Rum]

Uh, thanks for the vote clap. And to think, I had you as my beneficiary from day one until you were lynched! Bad choice on my part, clearly.

I promise to be more active in this game - especially without those money conditions (no offense to barkeep, it was a great game but I just didn't have the time to keep up with what the hell was going on).

For now I'll abstain from voting, we do have almost 24 hours to decide.

How many wolves do we think there are? Four, five?

Completely pulling this outta my ass...my gut says four. Five is a distinct possibility, especially if there isn't 100% communication amongst the wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Dola, why would I be facetious about that?

Well, we have already had a "oh, and I'm a seer" joke. Day One "obvious" jokes are not unusual in WW games.

[Chief Rum]

There are going to be a ton of scans so let's start keeping track:

clap (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (1 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (1 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122)

All right, key to the above: Target scans are to the right, people who claimed to scan them are to the left. 'V' is villager, 'W' is wolf, duh. The number after the V/W by the claiming parties is the post they announced their scan.

Total scans announced as of post #128.

11 total scans== (11 V / 0 W).

With 21 players, we should have 21 Night 0 scans, although at least some of us will be lying (I assume wolves don't actually get scans). Might be good to not mention the specific verbiage of the scans we get, as we might pin wolves later with that.

[nfg22]

Sorry. I am new to this. Yet if I were a werewolf, and thus working at deception(Which all humans have experience in), I would most likely try to be normal as possible.

Then again I guess by being abnormal I wouldnt look like a wolf trying to be normal. Basically, Yes Saldana came up as good but seing as we are all, except one, imperfect, I see no reason to believe anyone right now, whether they claim wolf or seer. That even goes for my own scan.

[The Jackal]

Thanks CR, that's useful, and will continue to be useful.

[nfg22]

Good work Cheif...Honestly that chart helps, and will be more useful in two days when we have enough info to start figuring out who can be trusted because of their ability.

[ntndeacon]

I scanned Pumpy in my Night 0 scan. he came up spotless.

[RendeR]

I scanned Pumpy in my Night 0 scan. he came up spotless.


but wolves don't have spots, Oh...nevermind =)

[Chief Rum]

There are going to be a ton of scans so let's start keeping track:

clap (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (1 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (1 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122)

All right, key to the above: Target scans are to the right, people who claimed to scan them are to the left. 'V' is villager, 'W' is wolf, duh. The number after the V/W by the claiming parties is the post they announced their scan.

Total scans announced as of post #128.

11 total scans== (11 V / 0 W).

With 21 players, we should have 21 Night 0 scans, although at least some of us will be lying (I assume wolves don't actually get scans). Might be good to not mention the specific verbiage of the scans we get, as we might pin wolves later with that.

Two quick thoughts:

One, we have already had a duplicate scan on claphamsa. Let's guess the wolves do not receive scan results (why would they need them?). But they need to fit in. They need to say they scanned someone and what result that was, or we will be immediately suspicious. So what should they do? Offer up fake scans, of course.

But here is the potential problem the "fake scan" plan will have. It seems reasonable that path would have had all 21 players scanned by the other 21 players. Not necessarily true (which is where the wolves' breathing room comes), but I would lean that way as a guess. So no duplicate scans on Night 0, since path himself is assigning the scans. So the presence of a duplicate scan right now suggests the possibility that either Lathum or oliegirl is a wolf (and the other probably a villager).

The choice for the wolves is exactly that risk: name a scan early and get featured as a double scan and a potential wolf. Or check in "late" and name the scanned after most of the other scans have been announced.

I suppose we can always ask path if scan choices were random on N0 or if each player had an individual scanner.

path, could you address this?

I will address my second thought in the next post.

[nfg22]

good point...that way would make it too easy I hope that is not the case.

[Chief Rum]

Second thought--there will be a slight bias toward accuracy in our abilities.

path used five rolls of a 20-sided dice. That means the lowest ability (outside of the Fool) possible is 5%, and the highest is 100% (and there can be more than one 100%, although the chance of that roll is 0.00003.1 %, whioch I think is about as bad some state lotteries). I think there is also an increased likelihood of us being around the average of those two numbers (52.5 %), as the repeated rolls will tend to mitigate each other back toward the mean.

I need to go look up some stat references to see if I can find the "tree graph" that will apply to this situation.

So, we are "slightly" more likely to be accurate than inaccurate.

[Chief Rum]

I suppose we can always ask path if scan choices were random on N0 or if each player had an individual scanner.

path, could you address this?

Decided to put this quote here as a stand alone so path wouldn't miss it.

[nfg22]

Yes but even with that slight accuracy, and it is slight, it is much more likely assuming 5 wolves at the most, that each scan on a wolf is actually a false one and is actually a seer.

That is a confusing. Basically I am saying that a scan that comes up as a wolf is more likely to be false than true. Which makes this dangerous until we have more information.

[Chief Rum]

Yes but even with that slight accuracy, and it is slight, it is much more likely assuming 5 wolves at the most, that each scan on a wolf is actually a false one and is actually a seer.

That is a confusing. Basically I am saying that a scan that comes up as a wolf is more likely to be false than true. Which makes this dangerous until we have more information.

Actually, I was meaning to try to figure that out, because I am not 100% sure that's true. But it will take some math work. It would be nice if we had a statitstician in the group.

[Greyroofoo]

I checked out DodgerChick.

She's a student.

[nfg22]

I am not a statastician but at 52 percent...assuming 5 wolves...Lets see.. 21-5=16...16x.52=8.32 so...7.68 incorrect wolve scans...versus about 2.55 correct wolve scans.

thats 7 versus 2. Basically out of nine scans we have two correct ones. If we double up a scan it increases the percentages that it is correct to about 75 percent. That is enough to vote on in my opinion.

[nfg22]

This also makes it disconcerting that we havent even had one wolf scan, false or not. Because at 12 scans, we should have about 5. I know I have alot of variable there but I dont know if we understand this well. Im just throwing out what I got.

[nfg22]

What I meant by double up, means that if we have two scans on the same person come up the same...

[Chief Rum]

Now, I'm following you there. I still want to crunch the numbers myself (I am much better crunching my own numbers than trying to follow someone else's ;) ), but I already did pick up on the oddity of no wolf scans yet.

[nfg22]

You dont like my numbers/ They are perfect. You are a wolf!

[Greyroofoo]

Just to throw something out there, path could've made it so most students have a 25%-30% success rate.

[path12]

Might be good to not mention the specific verbiage of the scans we get, as we might pin wolves later with that.

I assure all players that the specific verbiage is virtually the same for all players, barring my occasional lapses with villager/student and such.

[nfg22]

Still we are under par for course. Of course no matter what we are under.

[path12]

I suppose we can always ask path if scan choices were random on N0 or if each player had an individual scanner.

path, could you address this?


I will not divulge any circumstances regarding N0 choices other than to say that duplication is indeed possible, and that the process was completely up to me alone.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I don't really understand what any of you are saying. Let's just get rid of the wolves!!

[Lathum]

CR, I thought the same thing but if all 21 had a "scan partner" so to say that would mean all 21 of us would be scanned the first night and the odds that multiple wolves would be outed could really mess the game up.

[Lathum]

Also, If I was a wolf I wouldn't be the first one to clear another player. I would wait to see if someone had a succesfull scan of me then counter.

[nfg22]

Maybe you are a wolf and that is why you thought of this!?

[Lathum]

Maybe you are a wolf and that is why you thought of this!?

thought of what?

[Lorena]

I'm a student but not everyone likes me. :(

I like you Mike, you came up good.

[nfg22]

thought of what?

What a wolf would think...

[nfg22]

we are now 13-0...hmm...something seems different than would seem is true...

[Lathum]

What a wolf would think...

I always try to think like a wolf, it's a good way to get in your opponents head.

[nfg22]

I always try to think like a wolf, it's a good way to get in your opponents head.

it is a good way to be an opponent....im just messin im bored...

[Lathum]

it is a good way to be an opponent....im just messin im bored...

discussion is always encourged

[MikeVic]

I like you Mike, you came up good.

Thanks. :)

As I was catching up in the thread, I was also going to suggest that wolves might have picked a duplicate student scan... but then path cleared it up that it's possible for the same person to get multiple student results.

So that means we'll get some people not showing up in scans ! I don't know what to think.

[ntndeacon]

Well one thing to note if we have 21 innocent "scans" said then at least one scan is false. I think the wolves would not do a false wolf on night 0, I imagine they will just blend in.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Passacaglia came up clean.

One thing that's not exactly clear is, does our accuracy remain constant? Has each of us been assigned an accuracy that will be with us throughout the game?

If so, we may want to be a little bit circumspect with our reveals of nightly scans. I think it's essential that we share that information, but I worry about making it too easy for the wolves to identify the high-accuracy seers (or, equivalently, the low-accuracy seers).

[ntndeacon]

I would guess that our accuracy is fixed. Mr. Wednesday it will be tough enough to determine how right we are.

[nfg22]

Then how do you propose to keep it secret and be able to tell who has a high accuracy? I personally think our best plan is to find out the 75%+ people and use them to kill the wolves. If we can do this by day 5, it is an easy win, no matter how many the wolves kill. We just need 2-3 people that have that much accuracy.

[MikeVic]

What if there's one guy with 100%, one guy with 75%, and the rest are at 10% or something?

[ntndeacon]

That may be Mike, but ireally doubt it.

[nfg22]

Most likely there will be one 100...then with 16 people, there will be probably 2-4 above 75. Again, its random because he used d-20 but probability on 80 rolls becomes more standard. A sample size of 80 is not too bad, with 30 being the usual accepted size in most research, this is actually a good size. Then again, 1-20 is a larger size for outcome meaning more of a chance of outliers. I am confident in saying that 52% will be within ten percent of the mean.

[Passacaglia]

Actually, I was meaning to try to figure that out, because I am not 100% sure that's true. But it will take some math work. It would be nice if we had a statitstician in the group.

I haven't finished the thread yet, but I'm a big stats guy, so I can hopefully offer up some answers -- but not now, I just spent 7 hours taking a train from Detroit to Chicago to avoid this big storm that was supposed to hit, only to arrive and see all the snow that was here last week has melted. 13 inches my ass.

Anyway, I scanned pumpy, and he came up good.

[claphamsa]

wow its raining here... no snow :)

[Chief Rum]

All right, I did some workups on an Excel spreadsheet, and here's about what I came up with. I suspect the numbers on each side of the peak should be the same, but I probably missed something somewhere. But I am pretty confident I am close on the proper breakdown.

Here goes:

Accuracy Range (% of group likely to be in that range)

5-15% (.03% of group)
16-23% (.95% of group)
24-31% (4.2% of group)
32-39% (10.9% of group)
40-47% (19.2% of group)
48-55% (23.6% of group)
56-63% (20.8% of group)
64-71% (13.0% of group)
72-79% (5.6% of group)
80-87% (1.5% of group)
88-100% (.19% of group)

Assuming five wolves and discounting Teacher's Pet and Fool (14 others)...

Likely only 1-2 players outside of the 32%-71% range (and the chances of getting 5 or 100 is infinitesimal).

*--more probable

1-2 from 32-39%
2-3* from 40-47%
3*-4 from 48-55%
3 from 56-63%
2 from 64-71%

Assuming four wolves and discounting Teacher's Pet and Fool (15 others)...

Likely only 1-2 players outside of the 32%-71% range (and the chances of getting 5 or 100 is infinitesimal).

*--more probable

1-2 from 32-39%
3 from 40-47%
3-4 from 48-55%
3 from 56-63%
2 from 64-71%

The mean was 51-52%, as expected.

[Chief Rum]

Going off of 5 wolves (worst case scenario) and assuming a tendency toward the mean (meaning higher numbers closer to the means), I get the following:

1 from 24-31 (Total 1*27.5 = 27.5) --coulda picked 72-79, but figured this would be worst case scenario
1 from 32-39 (Total 1*35.5 = 35.5)
3 from 40-47 (Total 3*43.5 = 130.5)
4 from 48-55 (Total 4*51.5 = 206)
3 from 56-63 (Total 3*59.5 = 178.5)
2 from 64-71 (Total 2*67.5 = 135)

Total = 713
Average Acc% = 50.9%

[Chief Rum]

Updated through post #173:

claphamsa (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (2 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103), ntndeacon (V; 133)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (2 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122), Dodgerchick (V; 156)
Dodgerchick (1 V / 0 W)-- Greyroofoo (V; 141)
Passacaglia (1 V / 0 W)-- Mr. Wednesday (V; 164)

Total scans announced as of post #173.

15 total scans== (15 V / 0 W).

Hasn't announced scan yet (6): jeheinz72, Passacaglia, saldana, st.cronin, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16

Not a scan target yet (9): Barkeep49, Render, mauboy1, jeheinz72, ntndeacon, oliegirl, st.cronin, The Jackal, SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

You dont like my numbers/ They are perfect. You are a wolf!

:p

[Chief Rum]

Just to throw something out there, path could've made it so most students have a 25%-30% success rate.

There were a few suggestions of not so random numbering, but nothing in the rules path put up suggests that. In fact, he is pretty clear about rolling the d20 five times to determine accuracy for everyone (outside of wolves and others with exact accuracies, of course).

So until I hear otherwise, I am going to assume that's exactly what he did.

[Chief Rum]

I assure all players that the specific verbiage is virtually the same for all players, barring my occasional lapses with villager/student and such.

So wolves received the scan verbiage on N0? They don't scan (nor need to), right?

[Chief Rum]

I will not divulge any circumstances regarding N0 choices other than to say that duplication is indeed possible, and that the process was completely up to me alone.

Well, at least we don't have to wrap our minds around that one.

[Chief Rum]

Passacaglia came up clean.

One thing that's not exactly clear is, does our accuracy remain constant? Has each of us been assigned an accuracy that will be with us throughout the game?

Might as well clear this up.

path, are our starting accuracies essentially locked into stone (outside of mechanics might change our accuracies from time to time, I mean)?

[Chief Rum]

Whoops, I missed Pass's scan of Pumpy; I added it in...

Updated through post #173:

claphamsa (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (3 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103), ntndeacon (V; 133), Passacaglia (V; 170)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (2 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122), Dodgerchick (V; 156)
Dodgerchick (1 V / 0 W)-- Greyroofoo (V; 141)
Passacaglia (1 V / 0 W)-- Mr. Wednesday (V; 164)

Total scans announced as of post #173.

16 total scans== (16 V / 0 W).

Hasn't announced scan yet (5): jeheinz72, saldana, st.cronin, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16

Not a scan target yet (9): Barkeep49, Render, mauboy1, jeheinz72, ntndeacon, oliegirl, st.cronin, The Jackal, SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

I'm not going to go up and down on the accuracy charts right now, as it is getting late, and I want to go to bed. So I'm going with the 50.9% accuracy rating and again assuming five wolves. I am also going to assume the Fool, Teacher's Pet and all of the wolves have checked in.

With 16 scans announced, taking out the above seven, we have nine scans at a minimum that should have fallen under path's initial accuracy roles.

If there are 5 wolves, we have a 23.8% chance of the person we are targeting actually being a wolf. With 9 scans, it is statistically strongest that 2 wolves have been scanned, and 7 students.

We have a 50.9% chance (on average) of being accurate. In order for us to get ALL villagers at this point, we would have to roll false on the 2 wolves (2*49.1% = 24.1%) and roll true on 7 students (7*50.9% = 0.89%). The chances of both of these odds not having a "W" show up (accurate or not) is 0.21%!

Something funky is going on here. I don't trust these numbers open night numbers at all. I am beginning to suspect we all received villager scans and should throw these out.

[Dr. Sak]

My night view shows that saldana is a student.

[Pumpy Tudors]

All these numbers are hurting my head.

[Dr. Sak]

It's best to read Chief Rum's posts with a pot of coffee at hand...and remember...even though he is being extremely "helpful"...stats can be manipulated.

That's the excuse I am using since I slept through my college statistics classes.

[Lathum]

Then how do you propose to keep it secret and be able to tell who has a high accuracy? I personally think our best plan is to find out the 75%+ people and use them to kill the wolves. If we can do this by day 5, it is an easy win, no matter how many the wolves kill. We just need 2-3 people that have that much accuracy.

Not sure how we could keep it secret, but if someone shows they have a high accurasy they wll probably be killed immedeatetly.

[Lorena]

I don't know who's who (with the exception of MikeVic, granted that my scan is actually good), but these numbers are giving me a headache.

[Lorena]

thanks lathum :)

I scanned someone named pump twodoors, so I might be the fool (or the boss is drunk)

Gonna keep this post in mind as the spelling is really off. Could be the fool, or a baddie trying to blend in.

[nfg22]

Gonna keep this post in mind as the spelling is really off. Could be the fool, or a baddie trying to blend in.

I think you are wrong about that being suspicious, but if you want to add more suspicion to it, add in the fact that Claph didnt declare whether Pumpy was good or bad and also that in the later post where Claph did, the quote is under the answer.

[nfg22]

I am also up with discarding day one votes...they seem off.

[nfg22]

Maybe the wolves find out they are wolves tommorrow, or maybe we havent completed classes yet so we dont know how to distinguish...Ill think on this more but basically I dont like the numbers so far

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well, I think the point is that all of you are wolves and you're trying to trick me.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Dola

Or you're trying to fuck me. I'm not really sure which. I've never been fucked by a wolf before, at least not without a paying audience present.

[Lorena]

Well, I think the point is that all of you are wolves and you're trying to trick me.

That's my mentality every game. The one person you trust will ending up effing you in the a-hole, so be weary.

[Passacaglia]

I'm wondering if maybe one of the people who haven't announced who their scan was might have scanned a wolf, and are just afraid to say anything? I can't imagine that path would set our night scans up so that they would automatically be villagers -- that seems to compromise the whole point of the game, if it's forced on N0. I'm thinking, if I were a student, and I received a scan that someone was a wolf, but I knew that I couldn't be sure about it, I'd want to hold on to that info -- if I called someone out as a wolf D1 and was wrong, I'd end up as a D2 casualty -- maybe not for being a wolf, but at least for being a poor seer.

[Schmidty]

I hope you all die.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I should say: I hope some of you die.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

Forgot the ;)

[Dr. Sak]

That's my mentality every game. The one person you trust will ending up effing you in the a-hole, so be weary.

So you know this from experience...hmmm...interesting.

[Passacaglia]

Dola.

I should say: I hope some of you die.

I have a feeling you will get your wish.

[Passacaglia]

What if there's one guy with 100%, one guy with 75%, and the rest are at 10% or something?

I actually think being at 10% is as good as being at 90%, as long as we're aware of it. The guys you don't want are at 50% -- they're really telling you nothing.

[Passacaglia]

Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"

[Lorena]

So you know this from experience...hmmm...interesting.

Yes, many times unfortunately. I'm easily swayed and run all kinds of conspiracy theories in my head when there's a hint that someone *might* be telling the truth.

Well, there's one vote out there so I might as well throw one as well

Vote jeheinz72

Random, Day 1, etc.

[st.cronin]

Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"

Bummer.

[Passacaglia]

Bummer.

Look, if you're that upset about it, there is something you can do.

[claphamsa]

Right now, I'm looking to throw my vote at the two people with no data on them right now -- "The Heinz" and "The Cronin"
heinz is off today, so well get nothign from him till tommroow mornign!

[st.cronin]

Look, if you're that upset about it, there is something you can do.

Yeah. Look, I just finished catching up on the thread. My scan last night was of greyroofoo. He came up student.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Vote jeheinz72

[Dr. Sak]

Look at the newbie's piling on the votes.

[Lathum]

I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult.

I know Saldana usualy checks in around lunchtime so I will at least wait until then.

[st.cronin]

VOTE RENDER

He hasn't voted for me yet, so something must be wrong.

[Passacaglia]

I would like to hear from everyone before I decide but if jheinze won't be here at all today that would obviously make that diffucult.

I know Saldana usualy checks in around lunchtime so I will at least wait until then.

I'm in the same boat. the Heinz not being around really doesn't help him, but if a lot of people come out saying they scanned him, I'll vote elsewhere -- for me, it's all about who has the least data points, which includes scanning and being scanned.

[oliegirl]

I really hate pile on votes, but after looking at the info Chief has given us, Heinz is the only one who has not posted his N0 scan results AND also not been the target of a scan. I know it's not much, but do we have anything else to go on at this point?

Not ready to vote yet, but this is definitely something to think about...

[claphamsa]

Wow its 70 Degrees here..... I dont think ill be on mu8ch today :P

[nfg22]

I actually think being at 10% is as good as being at 90%, as long as we're aware of it. The guys you don't want are at 50% -- they're really telling you nothing.

True, We can just reverse false scans....

[nfg22]

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...Also with the confirmed info we have Heinz was supposed to be out today, thus the no post is not really a case against him.

[path12]

So wolves received the scan verbiage on N0? They don't scan (nor need to), right?

All players including wolves received a N0 scan, whether needed or not.

[Lathum]

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. .

can you elaborate on this?

I'm not sure the best place to start is on someone who has been cleared by multiple people considering Path made it clear it is possible to have duplicate scans Night 0

[Lathum]

Path-2 questions

Is the tie-breaker public?
Can we vote No Lynch?

[path12]

Might as well clear this up.

path, are our starting accuracies essentially locked into stone (outside of mechanics might change our accuracies from time to time, I mean)?

Correct. Each player has a seer accuracy rate. This is a fixed number.

[nfg22]

I basically just tried to find some patterns to the scanning. Who scanned who and why. Claph didnt add up. I didnt find many patterns and the scanning could have been random. Basically I know both people I named were duplicate scans but really what else do we have to go on? Also I am not putting too much faith in the N) scans...

[path12]

Path-2 questions

Is the tie-breaker public?
Can we vote No Lynch?

1) Maybe.
2) Yes.

[nfg22]

dola,I dont think all the wolves now eachother...which is why they recieved scans...

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...
I don't have anything to add. I've never played before, and I have pretty much no information to go on except for a bunch of numbers that confuse me.

Well, besides that, I guess I also have you saying that you have information that would get you killed. To me, you might as well hold up a sign that says "KILL ME!" I'll mull that over for a bit and possibly change my vote. Thanks, pal!

[Lorena]

heinz is off today, so well get nothign from him till tommroow mornign!

I just searched for heinz's posts in here and he has a handful, but none of them say he won't be here. I'm curious as to where you got this information.

[Barkeep49]

dola,I dont think all the wolves now eachother...which is why they recieved scans...
I think that this is most likely correct.

I've been glad to see others do the statisical analysis that I find that I do so often.

Pass talked about how 10% is nearly as good as 90%. I'm not sure I agree with that, but further even that is true how do we go about finding out those numbers? Doing that seems like it is one of the most important things we can do to win this game. Failing our ability to do that, I don't see anyway to play it except as a very traditional game of WW with a hell of a lot of extra, false, info out there.

For path: Can you clarify exactly how the scans work? Let's say you did your 5d20 and I rolled a 20. I then send in a scan. Presumably there is a dice roll at this point. Let's say I fail. Do I receive the "wrong" response automatically? Or is there a second roll (presumably 50/50) to determine what result I get?

[Lorena]

I just searched for heinz's posts in here and he has a handful, but none of them say he won't be here. I'm curious as to where you got this information.

Actually, not even a handful. The only post I saw was "in".

[Barkeep49]

To reiterate a point above for those who don't like long posts: At this point I think looking at the numbers is semi-optional and you can play this as a traditional game of WW successfully.

[nfg22]

I have an idea. Are allowed to pick who we scan?

[nfg22]

I don't have anything to add. I've never played before, and I have pretty much no information to go on except for a bunch of numbers that confuse me.

Well, besides that, I guess I also have you saying that you have information that would get you killed. To me, you might as well hold up a sign that says "KILL ME!" I'll mull that over for a bit and possibly change my vote. Thanks, pal!


KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.

[Pumpy Tudors]

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.
But I'm not a wolf.

[nfg22]

Then don't vote for me.

[Lorena]

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.

I don't know if I should take this post seriously or what, but you seem to be pretty adamant that Pumpy's a wolf.

[nfg22]

Im not really adamant about anything. Im more just interacting with the little truth I know. Thus when people interact back I get a feel for them.

[claphamsa]

Well even in fear of getting killed by wolves, ill throw two names out there. Claph and Pumpy. I did some analysis of the N0scans that I don't want to share because it is inconclusive and if I am right I will be killed. Just to say, Claph came up as a wolf. Second, Pumpy, I dont know how you usually act in these things but you have tried to stay active while adding nothing at all. Im going to hold on my vote for a while but those are my two favorites...Also with the confirmed info we have Heinz was supposed to be out today, thus the no post is not really a case against him.

U scanned me as a wolf? well then either you are a wolf (and a real bad one) or you scanned wrong.

[nfg22]

I didnt say I scanned you. I said I did some analysis on the scans that were reported.

[claphamsa]

I just searched for heinz's posts in here and he has a handful, but none of them say he won't be here. I'm curious as to where you got this information.
were freinds.... Were in 2 OOTP leagues and 2 BBCF leagues and play WW on 2 boards together. HE never said he wouldnt be around... but he is NVER on on the weekend (family time)

[Passacaglia]

I think that this is most likely correct.

I've been glad to see others do the statisical analysis that I find that I do so often.

Pass talked about how 10% is nearly as good as 90%. I'm not sure I agree with that, but further even that is true how do we go about finding out those numbers? Doing that seems like it is one of the most important things we can do to win this game. Failing our ability to do that, I don't see anyway to play it except as a very traditional game of WW with a hell of a lot of extra, false, info out there.

For path: Can you clarify exactly how the scans work? Let's say you did your 5d20 and I rolled a 20. I then send in a scan. Presumably there is a dice roll at this point. Let's say I fail. Do I receive the "wrong" response automatically? Or is there a second roll (presumably 50/50) to determine what result I get?

I think path answered this for me on the first page, to say that if you fail, you get the wrong answer automatically.

[claphamsa]

I didnt say I scanned you. I said I did some analysis on the scans that were reported.

what annalysys could you possibly do?

[Barkeep49]

KILL ME!!!!! Seriously, vote for me you wolf...if you vote for me it just shows you are a wolf and scared of my uber skills.
I'm neither. I Just don't like people who try and make themselves immune from voting in that way. I don't like runaway votes. Let's give ourselves a second target.

Vote nfg22

[Greyroofoo]

So I'm thinking tonight that we should focus our scans on 3-4 people tonight, maybe dividing the people in the scanning groups up alphabetically or something to help avoid wolf mischief.

[Barkeep49]

I think path answered this for me on the first page, to say that if you fail, you get the wrong answer automatically.
I agree, that's what he said back on page 1. This only means it's THAT much more important to then find out what percentages people are rolling with. In fact for our night scans to have ANY validity at all we've got to find out that info.

[nfg22]

Yes!I am a target!Thats cool. My analysis was not very good or conclusive but I dont want to say how I got it. Basically on this first day, especially with all villager scans so far we cannot really say anyone is a wolf. So I threw out some weak assumptions. Dont put too much stock in what I say. I just love numbers and patterns so I am pretty active right now.

[nfg22]

Grey that is pretty much perfect. If we concentrate our votes on 2-4, we should get varied answers and pretty quickly figure out who has what percentage.

[Barkeep49]

So I'm thinking tonight that we should focus our scans on 3-4 people tonight, maybe dividing the people in the scanning groups up alphabetically or something to help avoid wolf mischief.
I agree with the idea of agreeing to scan only 3-4 people. It's only through differences of results that we'll be able to start to figure out how accurate people are. If someone dies and no one has scanned them we are no further along towards finding out who is accurate and who is not with their scans.

[st.cronin]

I agree, that's what he said back on page 1. This only means it's THAT much more important to then find out what percentages people are rolling with. In fact for our night scans to have ANY validity at all we've got to find out that info.

Maybe I missed something, but is there a way to find that out?

[Barkeep49]

Yes!I am a target!Thats cool. My analysis was not very good or conclusive but I dont want to say how I got it. Basically on this first day, especially with all villager scans so far we cannot really say anyone is a wolf. So I threw out some weak assumptions. Dont put too much stock in what I say. I just love numbers and patterns so I am pretty active right now.
We barely have ANYTHING to analyze yet you already claim the ability to divine information from the little that we've done? C'mon, that's not playing the game, that's just stirring the pot.

[Barkeep49]

Maybe I missed something, but is there a way to find that out?
path seems to hint that there is such a way. I'm guessing it's someone's power. Beyond that, it involves comparing your record of scans with who we lynch/dies so you can start to guess at how accurate you are.

[nfg22]

I say we kill the person who has the most scans on them. Then we have the most data to cross reference against. Basically if we kill someone with 3 scans, and they were a villager, and all 3 scans said villager, then we know 3people were right. Thus giving us data on 3 people instead of less.

[nfg22]

Barkeep, you are a good basketball coach but you are wrong on this. I didnt claim to know anything, I just said I came across a pattern that may suggest Claph and I didnt like how pumpy was posting. And yes, I already admitted to stirring the pot.

[claphamsa]

I say we kill the person who has the most scans on them. Then we have the most data to cross reference against. Basically if we kill someone with 3 scans, and they were a villager, and all 3 scans said villager, then we know 3people were right. Thus giving us data on 3 people instead of less.

except we dont know anythign othewr than they rolled lucky..... (not that its a abd idea)

[X]- Decided to brew beer, outside with my laptop, so Im still on :)