WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[jeheinz72]

we need a continegcy plan for if one of these poeple gets lynched or might killed....

We have one, NTN fills their spot.

[Dr. Sak]

How many wolves are there potentially left?

[claphamsa]

o mssed that!

[jeheinz72]

How many wolves are there potentially left?

I'd say at most 4. My money would be on 3 left, personally.

[RendeR]

I'd say at most 4. My money would be on 3 left, personally.


yeah I'd be assuming 4 total for the game. So 3 more mutts to fry!!

[Barkeep49]

I think the idea with this plan isn't to have an accurate scan on everyone, it's to have a scan. Accuracy will then be determined later through repetition or by learning who CC/TP is.

[jeheinz72]

I think the idea with this plan isn't to have an accurate scan on everyone, it's to have a scan. Accuracy will then be determined later through repetition or by learning who CC/TP is.

Then I say if we do that we lynch someone with lots of data points on them today. If we sit there tomorrow with half-assed info on lots of people, and lots of people have their 4 scans with no evidence of wrong or right we'll be pretty clueless.

[The Jackal]

Mr W it is

[RendeR]

Then I say if we do that we lynch someone with lots of data points on them today. If we sit there tomorrow with half-assed info on lots of people, and lots of people have their 4 scans with no evidence of wrong or right we'll be pretty clueless.


Ok, you're the "trust" gyu today, Who would you recommend? Do we have a current vote count?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Cronin why are you placing so much stock in this night 3 scan? I've really tried to give you the benefit of the doubt as you've been so suspicious to me, but I was afraid I was falling into the trap of "he's suspicious of me so he must be a wolf" but basically everything you do screams to me wolf.
I can't speak to your experience in other games, but for me it's such a common occurrence that cronin's behavior screams wolf to me that I just tune it out.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As the situation gets more desparate, tempers flare. Jeheinz72 and st.cronin argue about his scans of wolf. Finally, Jeheinz says "We're going to find out what's going on RIGHT NOW!", pulls a gun from his pocket and shoots st.cronin.

You all watch in horror as st.cronin's look of surprise fades with his life.......and transforms into the head of a wolf!

JEHEINZ72 HAS KILLED ST.CRONIN, A WOLF!

Uh, wow. Nice work!

[jeheinz72]

Ok, you're the "trust" gyu today, Who would you recommend? Do we have a current vote count?

My vote is on DC, I think she has two. Clap has one, Mau has one. I think that's it

[Mr. Wednesday]

Yeah, her gameplay screams wolf to me, but 6 good scans out of 7 makes it hard. I mean that's a lot of dodged scans if she's a wolf. Granted, the one who did hit on her as a wolf was Lathum, who I can assume wasn't lying about it at all, since we know he was good.
A large number of scans in either direction are surprising. Don't fall into the trap of overweighting volume of scan results. To the extent that we use scans, it needs to be results from individuals who seem to have greater accuracy.

[Barkeep49]

I can't speak to your experience in other games, but for me it's such a common occurrence that cronin's behavior screams wolf to me that I just tune it out.
This post was so cute considering what was to come for Mr. W :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

how have some poeple only been scanned once?
Because there's been a movement to bunch scans (maximizing return when the scanned person gets offed, but reducing coverage). Some people have not gone along with that plan (outside of one night, myself included).

[Mr. Wednesday]

This post was so cute considering what was to come for Mr. W :)
Yeah, when I then made it to the subsequent post I was like, "Boy, that post I made before is going to look silly."

It's true, though, cronin has come off very wolvish to me in a lot of games where he's been villager.

[SnDvls]

VOTE Mauboy

this is purely based on the anaylsis of Clap's scans (by jeheinz) as I don't have a lot more to go on....if I do see a run you can bet I'll be looking closely at those that pile on this vote.

[claphamsa]

I havent scanned mau..... just think hes being silly

[jeheinz72]

A large number of scans in either direction are surprising. Don't fall into the trap of overweighting volume of scan results. To the extent that we use scans, it needs to be results from individuals who seem to have greater accuracy.

Yeah, I should add that I was wrong, it was actually 5 good out of 7, not 6. Here's the info

- I scanned her as good, I'm 1 for 1, but I'd bet I'm not the Teachers Pet (since I got the gun) (no scan n1)
- Lathum scanned her as wolf in his only scan
- Mau scanned her as wolf and is 1 for 1 in his other scan (no scan n1)
- You scanned her as Good and are 0 for 1 in your confirmed scans, with 1 other
- Olie scanned her as Good, with no info on any of Olie's scans
- RendeR scanned her as Good and is 0 for 1 in his confirmed scans, with 1 other
- Saldana scanned her as good, one of 2 unconfirmed scans for him before his untimely death

Really looking at it that way, I really like my vote for DodgerChick.

[SnDvls]

I havent scanned mau..... just think hes being silly

but you do have a hunch right?

[claphamsa]

ya

[jeheinz72]

VOTE Mauboy

this is purely based on the anaylsis of Clap's scans (by jeheinz) as I don't have a lot more to go on....if I do see a run you can bet I'll be looking closely at those that pile on this vote.

Clap is 3 for 3 on his scans, but none of his scans were Mau. He's scanned Lathum and Cronin both correctly and he came up good on me, which is correct and I'm sure most would agree with that

Mauboy has been scanned 3 times. Twice by NTN with differing results (one each good and bad) and Olie (1 good). NTN is 0 for 1 in his confirmed scans, Olie is 0 for 0.

[SnDvls]

ya

your hunchs seem to be better than mine

all I got is a wolf scan on Pumpy and I'd like to see what other's come up with scanning him before it seems I'm leading a charge against him

[st.cronin]

That was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a werewolf game

Oh come on, we've seen it before. It was cooler the first time.

I can't speak to your experience in other games, but for me it's such a common occurrence that cronin's behavior screams wolf to me that I just tune it out.

Awesome!

[Barkeep49]

That was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a werewolf game
Oh come on, we've seen it before. It was cooler the first time.

And the funny thing was that the coolest time it happened (in hoops' game), Lathum was responsible for it!

[Lathum]

And the funny thing was that the coolest time it happened (in hoops' game), Lathum was responsible for it!

hehe

[mauchow]

I'm going to have to keep a close eye on these results here. Looks like I'm the lead vote getter right now. That's too bad.

[oliegirl]

I'm torn between Mau and DC. I've scanned each of them as student, but I'm not sure if my scans can be trusted b/c no one I've scanned has been killed yet. Need to think a little more on this one.

Do we have a current vote count?

[jeheinz72]

<o:p>Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)</o:p>
<o:p>DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)</o:p>
<o:p>Chief Rum: 1 (Mauboy1)</o:p>
<o:p><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p>Claphamsa: 1 (DodgerChick)</o:p></o:p>
<o:p><o:p></o:p></o:p>
<o:p><o:p>Not Voting: Like, most everyone. </o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>

[jeheinz72]

Good god I don't know what happened there

Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)
DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)
Chief Rum: 1 (Mauboy1)
Claphamsa: 1 (Dodgerchick)

Not voting: like, most everyone

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, I need to vote for someone, because Real Soon Now I'll be leaving and then be out past deadline. I don't have any good ideas, so I'll just enhance the tie.

VOTE Chief Rum

[Barkeep49]

I too need to vote soon. I'm going to join with Mr. W and vote for someone who, next to cronin, has done the most to raise my eyebrows with his play this game.

Chief Rum

[jeheinz72]

About a half hour until I split for the day. I can see myself switching to CR possibly. I'm against a mauboy lynch.

I don't think he's played all that wolfish and we don't get much out of a bad lynch of him, like we would if we erred in a lynch of CR or DC.

He missed day one like me, so I can hardly judge him for that, and then that prediction stuff. I mean is that all that incriminating? I guess I just understood what he meant from the get-go. That whole including n0-scans idea of his is, in my mind, the biggest strike against him. Someone would/should only want to do that to artificially make themselves look good, IMO.

[jeheinz72]

Chief Rum: 3 (Mauboy1, Mr. Wednesday, Barkeep49)
Mauboy: 2 (claphamsa, SnDvls)
DodgerChick: 2 (The Jackal, jeheinz72)
Claphamsa: 1 (Dodgerchick)

Not Voting (7): bsak, Chief Rum, MikeVic, ntnDeacon, Oliegirl, Pumpy Tudors, RendeR

[Barkeep49]

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

[jeheinz72]

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

You mea CR ducking? Yeah, I get that.

My notes there were on Mauboy, I don't advocate voting him.

I can see a vote for CR, he and DC are a solid two candidates IMO. I personally favor DC more though.

[mauchow]

I just firmly believe that the n0 scans will mean something down the road as far as our percentages go. If you have a 50% scan rate, and if your scan was wrong on n0, it was probably right on n1. It's jsut a matter of miraculously figuring out who's scans were right and wrong, which there is no way of figuring out since everyone will say they're good.

I know I'm good so I know my scan was essentially right. I KNOW what I've got here to work with and for everyone else from MY perspective, n0 will not count because like you've already mentioned...it's just not feasible to put faith into it.

[mauchow]

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

Yeah, to clear this up, who was ducking a close vote?

[jeheinz72]

I just firmly believe that the n0 scans will mean something down the road as far as our percentages go. If you have a 50% scan rate, and if your scan was wrong on n0, it was probably right on n1. It's jsut a matter of miraculously figuring out who's scans were right and wrong, which there is no way of figuring out since everyone will say they're good.

I know I'm good so I know my scan was essentially right. I KNOW what I've got here to work with and for everyone else from MY perspective, n0 will not count because like you've already mentioned...it's just not feasible to put faith into it.

Wait, you're good so your scan is correct? That's really really faulty logic.

[Barkeep49]

Yeah, to clear this up, who was ducking a close vote?
Sorry I got confused in JH's writeup. I thought he was defending CR, but really he was defending mau.

[mauchow]

Wait, you're good so your scan is correct? That's really really faulty logic.

What? My n0 scan was nfg, who died a villager. My scan, TECHNICALLY was right. I'm going based off that and only that. I don't get what is so hard to comprehend here. I really don't. I'm going off the assumption that there is SOME truth to these n0 scans. OBVIOUSLY there are wrong scans out there.. TECHNICALLY mine was right.

[jeheinz72]

What? My n0 scan was nfg, who died a villager. My scan, TECHNICALLY was right. I'm going based off that and only that. I don't get what is so hard to comprehend here. I really don't. I'm going off the assumption that there is SOME truth to these n0 scans. OBVIOUSLY there are wrong scans out there.. TECHNICALLY mine was right.

Technically yours was right, correct. What I'm saying is this, its a true statement, but it doesn't up the ante for me as far as what I'd gauge your accuracy at, since there was obviously something different about those scans. Everyone came up good. So they either weren't determined by the standard random procedure (using our accuracy %'s) or we hit a lottery-like fluke.

Now I don't play the lotto, so I'm taking it to mean they had nothing to do with our accuracy %'s

[mauchow]

OH, yeah. I see what you're saying. I am pretty sure that it was done on purpose that everyone came up a villager. It would be fair since technically we could hit all the wolves on night 0....

but I believe that path would set the game up to have some truthfulness in the n0 scans otherwise there is absolutely NO POINT in having them in the game. Might as well have started out with no scans. Dumb.

[MikeVic]

The thing about CR though, is like I've said earlier today (I think): he was seen as a wolf by cronin AND voted on early by cronin. I'm confused by those two things.

[MikeVic]

I really don't have much on mauboy, clap was scanned as a wolf by me but I don't know how accurate I am. DC brought my radar up as well, but I just don't know.

[jeheinz72]

OH, yeah. I see what you're saying. I am pretty sure that it was done on purpose that everyone came up a villager. It would be fair since technically we could hit all the wolves on night 0....

but I believe that path would set the game up to have some truthfulness in the n0 scans otherwise there is absolutely NO POINT in having them in the game. Might as well have started out with no scans. Dumb.

He could have done it just to cause this confusion, plus also, wolves could've fake noted some people as wolves. Just a hurdle to put in there.

[MikeVic]

In other words, I'm not comfortable lynching any of the four candidates currently... and I don't have much else to go by for other people.

[jeheinz72]

The thing about CR though, is like I've said earlier today (I think): he was seen as a wolf by cronin AND voted on early by cronin. I'm confused by those two things.

Not out of the realm. I know when i've been a wolf in the past, if a fellow wolf isn't in danger, throwing a vote on him can look good down the line.

[RendeR]

I'm gonna get my vote in now. Heiney is the hero of the day, if he says lets lynch DC then I'm gonna sheep it and vote DC:


Vote Dodgerchick

[jeheinz72]

Well I'm outta here, peace out folks. Hopefully I'm alive to see another day tomorrow!

[claphamsa]

wow a rum runner
ahahahha
hahahah

[claphamsa]

so we have 3 for rummy
3 for DC
and 2 for mau.... I was never sold on mau, and even thouhg I loath rum...

unvote mau
vote dc

theres always tommroow mau old bean!

[Dr. Sak]

My next vote is leaning to go to Dodgerchick. If you read back, she stayed away from Cronin today and in the past few days was another person that was really adamant about believing these scans and pushing Cronin's theories.

Well no one else has made a case for anyone else. CR has been goofy but I think that is just his character.

VOTE DODGERCHICK

[Lorena]

I don't know if Chief is good or bad, but this is obviously out of self-preserverance:

unvote clap
vote chief rum

when i come up villager, the people who voted for me after heinz should be carefully looked at. RendeR has voted for all villagers (including yours truly) and clap has made some pretty spotty votes.

[Lorena]

I don't know if Chief is good or bad, but this is obviously out of self-preserverance:

unvote clap
vote chief rum

when i come up villager, the people who voted for me after heinz should be carefully looked at. RendeR has voted for all villagers (including yours truly) and clap has made some pretty spotty votes.

let's try this again

unvote clap
vote chief rum

[Dr. Sak]

Good point about RendeR...DC

[Barkeep49]

I don't know if Chief is good or bad, but this is obviously out of self-preserverance:

unvote clap
vote chief rum

when i come up villager, the people who voted for me after heinz should be carefully looked at. RendeR has voted for all villagers (including yours truly) and clap has made some pretty spotty votes.
With the exception of a few of us who got onto cronin this morning haven't all of us seemingly all voted for villagers? Granted we don't know about a couple of votes here and there, but for the most part I believe all of us have pretty bad voting records.

DC I don't believe you're a wolf, but I hope you are since if you are then I think mau is one as well, and if that's true we've basically won the game. So I can certainly understand the people voting for you.

But I like my guy a lot more. I can't remember ever feeling as good about two votes on a day as I do about first cronin and now Rum.

[RendeR]

Hey I freely admit I've voted for villagers, but I had reasons for every vote at the time. I can't help it if I'm wrong =)

[Lorena]

I'll be here at deadline, no doubt about it.

[mauchow]

What's the score?

[oliegirl]

VOTE CHIEF RUM

DC and Mau have both pinged my radar, but DC's defense of nfg eases off that a little for me, and Chief's weird voting on N2 was just to bizarre to ignore.

[mauchow]

I only ask because I think CR needs to go before DC. That's just me. I'd try to find some information on why to vote CR than DC. I know I scanned DC as a wolf but I firmly believe that my scan wasn't for real as I have a better feeling about DC being a villager than CR.

[Chief Rum]

CR - 0/2/1 - no n3 scan


FYI...

Review post #1337. I was the first to reveal my N3 scan.

[claphamsa]

so its 5 - 5 DC and Rummy?

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, her gameplay screams wolf to me, but 6 good scans out of 7 makes it hard. I mean that's a lot of dodged scans if she's a wolf. Granted, the one who did hit on her as a wolf was Lathum, who I can assume wasn't lying about it at all, since we know he was good.

FYI, I just now saw CR's note that he scanned RendeR, so make that 2 good out of 2 for him. Only missing RendeR's n3 scan result now.

lol...oh, okay, you found it. :)

[mauchow]

You're more LEET than I thought, Rum!

[mauchow]

And I'll explain the joke if need be.

[claphamsa]

yes do

[RendeR]

Vote Count?

[claphamsa]

5 -5 i think

[Chief Rum]

I thought you were married? err mean Dead ;)

It's okay, his girlfriend saldana is dead, too.

[RendeR]

Thank you.

[RendeR]

It's okay, his girlfriend saldana is dead, too.

*Cackles!*

[Lathum]

lol

[Pumpy Tudors]

I'm starting to get a bit leery of the people who have been generally quiet throughout the game. The wolves are trying to play us against each other, obviously, and that means that they can assign a couple of wolves to sit back and not really say anything. I'm pretty much picking somebody at random because I'm not sure about Chief Rum or Dodgerchick. I am not prepared to make a deciding vote here. I'd rather leave it to a tiebreaker, but I want to cast a spotlight on somebody else for a change.

VOTE MIKEVIC

[Dr. Sak]

Do you realize this is exactly why CR is being voted on...because he took the easy way out in a close vote?

[claphamsa]

throwing your vote away in a tie?

[Chief Rum]

JH: It's not just the N0 bit. It's also his ducking from a close vote on D2.

Assuming you're talking about me, did you note that exactly what I said would happen did? That BOTH Lathum and nfg22 were going to end up villagers? Those are the two candidates that night. I said I didn't think either was a wolf and refused to hang them.

If I were a wolf, I would have known without a doubt they were both villagers. Why would I not just choose to hang one or the other? In the long run, both sets of voters look bad, because both nfg22 and Lathum are villagers. It would be far more eye-catching to not vote for either, bringing a ton of attention on myself.

Why on Earth would I (as a hypothetical wolf) put that kinda target on myself on N2?

Another thing, I did a ton of work doing the stats bit, and kept track of scans for two days before yesterday's two-job day stopped me. Recall when have I ever done that much work as a wolf?

I'm not a wolf. I have even come up good in 7 of 8 scans (I think) by different people. I'm sure you'll toss on the whole wolf manipulation theory, but come on, there are at most five wolves, and we know one is cronin (the only one who scanned me as a wolf, strangely enough, and who was coming after me pretty hard since D1), and by your theory, I am another and of course have not scanned myself. How much manipulation do you think is going on on one person? Even with three other wolves lying (going by your theory), that is four student scans on me. There's only a 6% chance of four villagers (assuming average 50% accuracy) all scanning a wolfy me as a villager.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well, I don't really want to call it a throwaway. Maybe I'm wrong. I haven't seen a compelling reason to pick one over the other. I'm around for the next 15 minutes. If someone can convince me, I'll gladly pick Chief Rum or Dodgerchick. At this point, I just want to point out that there are some quiet people around who may need to be looked at.

[Chief Rum]

The thing about CR though, is like I've said earlier today (I think): he was seen as a wolf by cronin AND voted on early by cronin. I'm confused by those two things.

If you realize I am a student, it becomes less confusing.

[claphamsa]

Well, I don't really want to call it a throwaway. Maybe I'm wrong. I haven't seen a compelling reason to pick one over the other. I'm around for the next 15 minutes. If someone can convince me, I'll gladly pick Chief Rum or Dodgerchick. At this point, I just want to point out that there are some quiet people around who may need to be looked at.
7 of 7 scans on CR have been good..... (discouting Cronin) the odds of him being bad with all those good scans are... remote!

[Dr. Sak]

Well, I don't really want to call it a throwaway. Maybe I'm wrong. I haven't seen a compelling reason to pick one over the other. I'm around for the next 15 minutes. If someone can convince me, I'll gladly pick Chief Rum or Dodgerchick. At this point, I just want to point out that there are some quiet people around who may need to be looked at.

My reasoning for picking Dodgerchick was her close affiliation with Cronin. She was buying into his theories about lynching people (no matter good or bad) based on the number of scans.

Chief seems to be forthcoming with all his information and as he said...if he was a wolf why wouldn't he want to get rid of nfg or Lathum since he would've known they were villagers. Chief might be a fool but I think his intentions are good.

[Chief Rum]

You're more LEET than I thought, Rum!

Well, I have been around long enough to have been considered part of the elitist crowd of FOC in the old days, circa two years after Sideline days. That what you mean? Wow, how I miss that black and green message board.

okay, not really.

[Lorena]

This should be fun.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Is there anyone who hasn't voted yet?

[Chief Rum]

I'm starting to get a bit leery of the people who have been generally quiet throughout the game. The wolves are trying to play us against each other, obviously, and that means that they can assign a couple of wolves to sit back and not really say anything. I'm pretty much picking somebody at random because I'm not sure about Chief Rum or Dodgerchick. I am not prepared to make a deciding vote here. I'd rather leave it to a tiebreaker, but I want to cast a spotlight on somebody else for a change.

VOTE MIKEVIC

Heh...

Personally, I wouldn't change my D1/N2 vote, as I feel the results have confirmed I was correct about both Lathum and nfg22.

That said, not sure I would recommend this route for anyone else.

[Chief Rum]

Is there anyone who hasn't voted yet?

Strangely enough, I haven't.

[claphamsa]

hmmm. very odd..

[oliegirl]

OK, rum's defense is pretty damn good and has me thinking. If he was a wolf, he would have known that Lathum and NFG were villagers, so why didn't he vote for them???? I'm still not convinced of DC being a wolf b/c she defended nfg, a known student, pretty vehemently. Which leaves Mau.

Anyone have thoughts on this?

[Chief Rum]

hmmm. very odd..

Not really. I just finally got to the end of the thread. I am relishing in the suspense...

Okay, fine...pure self-preservation. I'm not as sure as some others about DC (although I can see it). But her wolfishness, of course, has nothing to do with my vote.

VOTE DODGERCHICK

[Chief Rum]

OK, rum's defense is pretty damn good and has me thinking. If he was a wolf, he would have known that Lathum and NFG were villagers, so why didn't he vote for them???? I'm still not convinced of DC being a wolf b/c she defended nfg, a known student, pretty vehemently. Which leaves Mau.

Anyone have thoughts on this?

If I wasn't voting self-preservation, mau would be my vote right now.

[MikeVic]

I'm here, sorry was away after work. What's the vote totals?

[MikeVic]

I'm starting to get a bit leery of the people who have been generally quiet throughout the game. The wolves are trying to play us against each other, obviously, and that means that they can assign a couple of wolves to sit back and not really say anything. I'm pretty much picking somebody at random because I'm not sure about Chief Rum or Dodgerchick. I am not prepared to make a deciding vote here. I'd rather leave it to a tiebreaker, but I want to cast a spotlight on somebody else for a change.

VOTE MIKEVIC

I thought I've been pretty vocal in the strategies presented and trying to figure out who to vote for.

[claphamsa]

dc has one more than CR

[oliegirl]

dc has one more than CR

How many does Mau have? Any?

[claphamsa]

maybe 7-6?

[claphamsa]

not really, maybe 2?

[MikeVic]

Yeah I was wondering about mau too. I think I mentioned a bit ago that I wasn't comfortable with either CR or DC. What happens in a tie?

[claphamsa]

dont think we know

[MikeVic]

Heh alright. This is a tough one.

[Lorena]

Don't tie it Mike, I'd rather go down than to see a tie.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I thought I've been pretty vocal in the strategies presented and trying to figure out who to vote for.
Hmm. I guess that shows how much I remember.

UNVOTE MIKEVIC
VOTE ST.CRONIN

I can't vote for CR in good conscience. He has done a lot for us. I can't vote for DC before I'm not convinced that she's a wolf either. My vote is only for casting a spotlight on somebody right now, so I say to examine cronin. That's why my vote is going to him, even though it won't change tonight's result.

[Chief Rum]

I don't know what's about to happen. But this one is really tight. We should watch for hijinks (to save me or DC).

I can tell you no one is going to be doing any hijinks for me, as I am a student, but I know none of you can buy that on my word alone.

[ntndeacon]

I feel Imust vote for either DC or Rum. So I will
Vote DodgerChick

[claphamsa]

Hmm. I guess that shows how much I remember.

UNVOTE MIKEVIC
VOTE ST.CRONIN

I can't vote for CR in good conscience. He has done a lot for us. I can't vote for DC before I'm not convinced that she's a wolf either. My vote is only for casting a spotlight on somebody right now, so I say to examine cronin. That's why my vote is going to him, even though it won't change tonight's result.

croinin is dead dawg!

[Chief Rum]

Hmm. I guess that shows how much I remember.

UNVOTE MIKEVIC
VOTE ST.CRONIN

I can't vote for CR in good conscience. He has done a lot for us. I can't vote for DC before I'm not convinced that she's a wolf either. My vote is only for casting a spotlight on somebody right now, so I say to examine cronin. That's why my vote is going to him, even though it won't change tonight's result.


You have chosen your path, padawan learner, much as did I. Hope it brings you less suspicion than me.

[Lorena]

Pumpy, que chistoso, cronins' dead silly

[Chief Rum]

croinin is dead dawg!

lol...good point. :)

[MikeVic]

Who did heinz vote for?

[MikeVic]

Eek there's like 5 minutes left.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Wait, cronin's dead? I completely missed that. I really just completely missed that. I've had a rough couple of days, sorry.

UNVOTE ST.CRONIN (since he's dead)
VOTE MAUBOY

[claphamsa]

DC

[Lorena]

Who did heinz vote for?

for me mike

[MikeVic]

So it's something like 7-6 for DC right now still?

[claphamsa]

i think its 8-6 but im not sure :(

[claphamsa]

and path wont be aroudn for a while...

[MikeVic]

Frick. So heinz voted for DC, but he also brought up that my reasoning of why it can't be CR could be faulty (cronin put a bit of heat on him twice)...

[MikeVic]

I want to get the vote in by 8 though, as the rules state that.

[MikeVic]

So I'm seeing that my vote doesn't matter if it's 8-6?

[Chief Rum]

It is 8-6. DC, I believe. Still close enough for last second votes to make a difference. Anxious...

[claphamsa]

better safe than sorry
sice we dotn have a good count...

[Chief Rum]

So I'm seeing that my vote doesn't matter if it's 8-6?

You get it within one and someone else can save DC. It has happened many times before. No two vote lead is safe.

[Lorena]

No one's gonna bail me out, you might as well put the nail in the coffin Mike.

[Pumpy Tudors]

You have chosen your path, padawan learner, much as did I. Hope it brings you less suspicion than me.
I think I've probably brought more suspicion on myself for not knowing what the hell's going on today. Casting a "throwaway vote" (which I didn't really feel I was doing) is one thing. Being ignorant and voting for a dead wolf is just plain silly.

Well, day 4 is just about over. Who are we scanning tonight?

[MikeVic]

Ok, well, I still have a small feeling that cronin wouldn't put heat on CR twice so close together. And I don't know anything much of DC except that today's hero voted for her... so I'll do this now;

VOTE DODGERCHICK

[Lorena]

better safe than sorry
sice we dotn have a good count...

when i come up a villager, note this.

[Chief Rum]

I think I've probably brought more suspicion on myself for not knowing what the hell's going on today. Casting a "throwaway vote" (which I didn't really feel I was doing) is one thing. Being ignorant and voting for a dead wolf is just plain silly.

Well, day 4 is just about over. Who are we scanning tonight?

At least you voted for a wolf. :D

[Chief Rum]

when i come up a villager, note this.

DC, I feel bad, because I don't really think you're a wolf. But I can't afford to play shenanigans when it's my own neck on the line.

[MikeVic]

No last second switches?

[mauchow]

Well, I have been around long enough to have been considered part of the elitist crowd of FOC in the old days, circa two years after Sideline days. That what you mean? Wow, how I miss that black and green message board.

okay, not really.

Nobody saw the joke.. your post that you mentioned you revealed your scan was:

1337

Which, if I recall, is the number sign for saying leet. Just so happened to fall on that number. Just making a funny, I guess. LOL

[claphamsa]

when i come up a villager, note this.
note waht about it?

[MikeVic]

I would feel more comfortable voting on mauboy too.

[Chief Rum]

Nobody saw the joke.. your post that you mentioned you revealed your scan was:

1337

Which, if I recall, is the number sign for saying leet. Just so happened to fall on that number. Just making a funny, I guess. LOL

Ha! That is preety good. :)

[Lorena]

DC, I feel bad, because I don't really think you're a wolf. But I can't afford to play shenanigans when it's my own neck on the line.

That's fine Chief, you did what you had to :)

Thanks to Pumpy, MikeVic and bsak for playing after I hounded them with PMs :)

[claphamsa]

Ha! That is preety good. :)
dont encourage him.

[MikeVic]

Or clap. But they weren't in the running. I think we have another 2-villager thing here.

[mauchow]

The post number that is...

[mauchow]

Jeez, what is up with everyone really wanting to vote me out.

I don't think either of these two are wolves either, but I guess the better chance statistically would be DC and I didn't even vote against her. Oh, well.

[MikeVic]

I think I've probably brought more suspicion on myself for not knowing what the hell's going on today. Casting a "throwaway vote" (which I didn't really feel I was doing) is one thing. Being ignorant and voting for a dead wolf is just plain silly.

Well, day 4 is just about over. Who are we scanning tonight?

Posted by heinz a couple pages back:

Ok, here's the scan plan.

I generated a random sequence from 1-15, listed everyone alphabetically then. First number was the person who will be the "fill-in" scanner to take the spot of whoever we lynch. Next two went to the first alphabetical name on our list, next two to the next person, and so on:

Fill-in person: NTNDeacon

Scanning bsak: RendeR and Clap
Scanning Jackal: Mr. W and me
Scanning MikeVic: Mauboy and SnDvls
Scanning Mr. W: Oliegirl and The Jackal
Scanning NTN: Dodgerchick and Barkeep
Scanning Olie: ChiefRum and MikeVic
Scanning SnDvls: bsak and PumpyTudors

Make sense folks?

[path12]

Hey kids, just found a wifi place in Pullman Washington, home of the WSU Cougars.

Do we have a vote count anywhere close or do I need to go back through three pages?

[Chief Rum]

Hey kids, just found a wifi place in Pullman Washington, home of the WSU Cougars.

Do we have a vote count anywhere close or do I need to go back through three pages?

Well, no one has actively put together a count anyone thinks is truly accurate. That said, we're all pretty sure DC edged me out, 9-6.

[Chief Rum]

Posted by heinz a couple pages back:

Ok, here's the scan plan.

I generated a random sequence from 1-15, listed everyone alphabetically then. First number was the person who will be the "fill-in" scanner to take the spot of whoever we lynch. Next two went to the first alphabetical name on our list, next two to the next person, and so on:

Fill-in person: NTNDeacon

Scanning bsak: RendeR and Clap
Scanning Jackal: Mr. W and me
Scanning MikeVic: Mauboy and SnDvls
Scanning Mr. W: Oliegirl and The Jackal
Scanning NTN: Dodgerchick and Barkeep
Scanning Olie: ChiefRum and MikeVic
Scanning SnDvls: bsak and PumpyTudors

Make sense folks?

I see a problem here. NTN was to replace the lynchee. And DC is currently set to scan...NTN. :)

[path12]

Well, no one has actively put together a count anyone thinks is truly accurate. That said, we're all pretty sure DC edged me out, 9-6.

OK then let me go back and do a quick count.

[MikeVic]

I see a problem here. NTN was to replace the lynchee. And DC is currently set to scan...NTN. :)

Hmm. I don't know what to do.

[claphamsa]

chief, you scan ntn and ntn can scan OLI in your place....

[MikeVic]

Ok, so here's the new scan list:

Scanning bsak: RendeR and Clap
Scanning Jackal: Mr. W and me
Scanning MikeVic: Mauboy and SnDvls
Scanning Mr. W: Oliegirl and The Jackal
Scanning NTN: ChiefRum and Barkeep
Scanning Olie: NTN and MikeVic
Scanning SnDvls: bsak and PumpyTudors

[ntndeacon]

chief, you scan ntn and ntn can scan OLI in your place....

that sounds like a plan!
I shall

[Chief Rum]

Works for me.

[path12]

OK, going back I show the final vote as:

Dodgerchick - 8 - The Jackal, jeheinz, RendeR, Chief, bsak, clapham, ntndeacon, MikeVic

Chief Rum - 5 - mauboy1, Barkeep, Mr W, oliegirl, Dodgerchick

mauboy1 - 2 - SnDvls, Pumpy Tudors

There is much back and forth, but you are confident given the happy events of earlier in the day. Finally Dodgerchick is picked sort of resignedly and is lynched. Unfortunately, she does not change.......and worse yet, examining her effects it becomes very clear that you have lynched a second jock.

DODGERCHICK, A STUDENT AND JOCK, HAS BEEN LYNCHED. NIGHT 4 IS UNDERWAY, DEADLINE FOR ORDERS IS 1AM TONIGHT (THOUGH RESULTS WILL LIKELY BE LATER).

[MikeVic]

Awww man. :(

[claphamsa]

damit!

[RendeR]

Shit. That sucks big ones.


Sorry DC.

[Chief Rum]

She was a jock? :(

Man, that hurts twice. And we were screwed either way then, since I am still a villager. We need to get a wolf in one of these rundowns.

[MikeVic]

What does a jock mean? Lower accuracy? Higher?

[claphamsa]

yeah, im wondering about these rolls... are there more? ive never played in a game when we didnt even know what rolls may be ther.e..

[Chief Rum]

What does a jock mean? Lower accuracy? Higher?

I think it's a BG. Or the last time we lost a jock (N1, I think), he was a BG.

[Barkeep49]

She was a jock? :(

Man, that hurts twice. And we were screwed either way then, since I am still a villager. We need to get a wolf in one of these rundowns.
I don't think I'm just speaking for myself when I say I'm not so sure of that.

The late direction was all in one movement: away from CR. I'm 100% sure we have some villagers in that mix. But I can't think we JUST have villagers in that mix.

[oliegirl]

DAMN DAMN DAMN!!!!

[Chief Rum]

Assuming you're talking about me, did you note that exactly what I said would happen did? That BOTH Lathum and nfg22 were going to end up villagers? Those are the two candidates that night. I said I didn't think either was a wolf and refused to hang them.

If I were a wolf, I would have known without a doubt they were both villagers. Why would I not just choose to hang one or the other? In the long run, both sets of voters look bad, because both nfg22 and Lathum are villagers. It would be far more eye-catching to not vote for either, bringing a ton of attention on myself.

Why on Earth would I (as a hypothetical wolf) put that kinda target on myself on N2?

Another thing, I did a ton of work doing the stats bit, and kept track of scans for two days before yesterday's two-job day stopped me. Recall when have I ever done that much work as a wolf?

I'm not a wolf. I have even come up good in 7 of 8 scans (I think) by different people. I'm sure you'll toss on the whole wolf manipulation theory, but come on, there are at most five wolves, and we know one is cronin (the only one who scanned me as a wolf, strangely enough, and who was coming after me pretty hard since D1), and by your theory, I am another and of course have not scanned myself. How much manipulation do you think is going on on one person? Even with three other wolves lying (going by your theory), that is four student scans on me. There's only a 6% chance of four villagers (assuming average 50% accuracy) all scanning a wolfy me as a villager.

Looks like I better bring this up again, as it appears Barkeep missed it.

Continue arguing in the face of both logic and the scan numbers, and I am going to begin to assume you have an agenda.

[Chief Rum]

I don't think I'm just speaking for myself when I say I'm not so sure of that.

The late direction was all in one movement: away from CR. I'm 100% sure we have some villagers in that mix. But I can't think we JUST have villagers in that mix.

Oh, and that move away from CR (which included me, of course, what vote did you think I would put) was after that post as well. I think I say a lot of things that make sense. Do you disagree?

At least scans of me are free to come up as villager or wolf, and not worked up to always come up villager like yourself.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Even with three other wolves lying (going by your theory), that is four student scans on me. There's only a 6% chance of four villagers (assuming average 50% accuracy) all scanning a wolfy me as a villager.
Yeah, but there's also only a 6% chance of them all scanning non-wolfy you as a villager. That's the thing that keeps getting overlooked in these misguided appeals to blind scan accuracy.

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, but there's also only a 6% chance of them all scanning non-wolfy you as a villager. That's the thing that keeps getting overlooked in these misguided appeals to blind scan accuracy.

Yes, but if I'm a villager, and probably don't have three wolves lying to save me, do I? Then my village scans goes up possibly all the way to seven all saying I am a villager. Regardless, you're looking at an unlikely confluence of events that would result in me being a wolf. And that'signoring the other points I make.

You argue to ignore scan results. Okay, then please explain why, as a wolf knowing both Lathum and nfg22 are villagers, I would choose to vote elsewhere and put such a big target on myself?

Honestly, it's amazing to me the logical inconsistencies with their arguments that people are willing to ignore in an ultimately failed attempt to be "right".

[path12]

Damnit, I had a nice description typed up and lost the goddamn thing. OK. Flavor tomorrow.

Pieces of claphamsa were found through the school this morning. Bsak16 was also found dead in his bed, a look of terror on his face.

CLAPHAMSA, STUDENT AND EMPATH, HAS BEEN KILLED. HIS FELLOW EMPATH, BSAK16, ALSO DIED. Bsak16 was also a Math Whiz, instead of scanning he was able to read another players accuracy rate.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not trying to make any argument on what you are or aren't. I'm just arguing that villager or wolf, you've got a highly improbable collection of scan results on you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Son of a bitch.

[mauchow]

Why did two die tonight?

[ntndeacon]

Well CRAP!!!!!!!!!! I hate losing Bsak. math whiz. that was valuable info.

[ntndeacon]

good question mau. I have no idea

[mauchow]

And he never told us a thing. :(

[Chief Rum]

I'm not trying to make any argument on what you are or aren't. I'm just arguing that villager or wolf, you've got a highly improbable collection of scan results on you.

Yeah, true enough.

[RendeR]

Yeah WTF? It would appear the empaths were connected, what? telepathically? One dies and the other dies of fright or something?

Seriously fucked UP.

Ok we have some issues here, by my count that puts us at 12 players left? of which we should assume at least 3 wolves are left, so we're looking at crunch time people. a 9-3 ratio starts looking real bad when we are losing 2 people a night let alone THREE. Fuckin-a.....

[Chief Rum]

Guys, this is bad. We have not only lynched only villagers, we have now had a two-kill night. If it weren't for jeheinz's savvy move with cronin, we would be in even more deep doodoo then before.

We need to start putting things together and get a move on here.

ntndeacon came up as a wolf, BTW.

[Chief Rum]

Why did two die tonight?

Seems likely it was the empath connection.

[path12]

To clarify, Bsak and clapham were empaths. They were able to communicate with each other privately, but their link was such that if one died, the other did also.

All PM's should be out now. Day 5 is underway, deadline at 9PM EST tomorrow. We'll decide what to do with the weekend during the day, feel free to state your preference.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Why did two die tonight?
It's a bog standard rule variation for WW (two players who are linked, so killing one offs the other), just one that hadn't been announced beforehand.

[RendeR]

Well its pretty worthless to say, but my scan of Bsak came back Viooager...glad I know that NOW...fuck.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I got a student return on The Jackal. I'm one-and-one on non-night-zero scans, and one-and-oh on my night zero scan.

[RendeR]

Vioooooooager....Gah, nice spelling Ren =)

SOrry guys, I've been into the RUmpleminz tonight ;)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well its pretty worthless to say, but my scan of Bsak came back Viooager...glad I know that NOW...fuck.
That's not worthless at all. It's another data point on your accuracy.

[mauchow]

MikeVic came back as a student.

[RendeR]

That's not worthless at all. It's another data point on your accuracy.

Yeah I suppose, just seems rather paltry in comparison to the loss of the player in my current condition =)

[claphamsa]

pig fuckers!

[Barkeep49]

Oh, and that move away from CR (which included me, of course, what vote did you think I would put) was after that post as well. I think I say a lot of things that make sense. Do you disagree?

At least scans of me are free to come up as villager or wolf, and not worked up to always come up villager like yourself.
Obviously I expected you not to vote for you.

But:

A. As Mr. W pointed out the numbers aren't as kind to you as you think
B. You'd rather have drawn suspicion to yourself for voting strangely sure, but as a wolf you'd know 100% that both players were villagers. And then, when such a fact was revealed (as you knew that after the close vote the other player would likely bite it the next day) you can present exactly the argument you're presenting now. There is NO risk for a wolf saying that two players up for lynching are both villagers cause they know it to be true.

[Dr. Sak]

pig fuckers!

way to get me killed...jerk :)

[claphamsa]

:(

[Barkeep49]

I scanned CR, as I believe MikeVic has said I should, and he came up human.

[jeheinz72]

I scanned CR, as I believe MikeVic has said I should, and he came up human.

No, you were supposed to scan NTN, and this hurts since the other person who scanned NTN came back wolf

[oliegirl]

My scan on Mr. W came back as student...

I'm out til about 11, then will be on but in training (again) so in and out of the conversation.

We need someone who is really good with figures/stats to take a long hard look at the numbers we have - I suck at math and that kind of thing or I'd offer. We are in a do or die situation at this point...another bad lynch or two on our part and we'll have no hopes of winning.

:(

[jeheinz72]

Oh, and ARGH. Losing 3 good guys, including a MathWhiz and a 2nd jock really really hurts. I'm working on the scan results now

[jeheinz72]

My scan on Mr. W came back as student...

I'm out til about 11, then will be on but in training (again) so in and out of the conversation.

We need someone who is really good with figures/stats to take a long hard look at the numbers we have - I suck at math and that kind of thing or I'd offer. We are in a do or die situation at this point...another bad lynch or two on our part and we'll have no hopes of winning.

:(

I'm going to lay all the numbers out in a bit here...

[Barkeep49]

No, you were supposed to scan NTN, and this hurts since the other person who scanned NTN came back wolf
I apologize. I climbed out of bed to get my scan in as I was exhuasted after a 17 hour day. I misread the post. I feel really bad since I was the one who pushed the plan in the first place.

[Pumpy Tudors]

SnDvls came up as a wolf for me. I hope that helps. I can't believe we lost three students in one night, and they were all special ones, too. My first WW game is not going so well.

[jeheinz72]

In all the hub-bub, almost forgot

Jackal scanned as a Student

[jeheinz72]

I apologize. I climbed out of bed to get my scan in as I was exhuasted after a 17 hour day. I misread the post. I feel really bad since I was the one who pushed the plan in the first place.

No worries BK, it happens, plans like that can get confusing. I re-wrote how I presented it like twice because it was hard to make it easy to understand

[jeheinz72]

Here is what I have so far from Night 4, can someone double check, I'd like to avoid the mistakes I almost made yesterday

BK scanned CR as Student
CR scanned NTN as Wolf
jeheinz72 scanned The Jackal as Student
Mau scanned MikeVic as Student
Olie scanned Mr. W as Student
PumpyTudors scanned SnDvls as Wolf
Render scanned bsak as Student (confirmed correct) :(

[jeheinz72]

Which means we're missing Night 4 scans from:

MikeVic, Mr. W, NTN, SnDvls, TheJackal

I'd like to have some of those come in before postulating anything really.

[SnDvls]

I scanned MikeVic per the agreement he came up student for me

[MikeVic]

I scanned olie and she came back wolf.

Not counting N-0, that's three wolf scans for me and clap is a confirmed villager... so I don't know what to think about my scans, especially since N-0 was a correct scan. I could be one of those 50% guys.

[MikeVic]

Voting history:

Day 1 votes:

No Lynch 9 -- Greyroofoo(287), The Jackal(289), Lathum(321), Nfg22(351), SnDvls(356), MikeVic(403), Chief Rum(407), oliegirl(430), saldana(437)

Nfg22 3 -- Barkeep49(239), ntndeacon(334), Passacaglia(383)

jeheinz72 2 -- Dodgerchick(202), Pumpy Tudors(207)

The Jackal 1 -- claphamsa(91)

RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(210)

Lathum 1 -- RendeR(339)

ntndeacon 1 -- Bsak16(409)

claphamsa 1 -- Mr. Wednesday(440)

Not voted: mauboy1, jeheinz72


Day 2 votes:

Lathum - 8 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882), RendeR (887), mauboy1 (926), Mr. Wednesday (985)

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)

No Lynch - 2 - The Jackal (736), SnDvls (762)

Passacaglia - 1 - ntndeacon(738)

Dodgerchick - 1 - jeheinz72 (764)

Barkeep49 - 1 - Chief Rum (986)


Day 3 votes:

nfg22 - 14 - Chief Rum (1097), saldana (1101), oliegirl (1156), jeheinz72 (1168), MikeVic (1173), Pumpy Tudors (1175), Barkeep49 (1184), bsak16 (1226), mauboy1 (1228), Mr. Wednesday (1255), SnDvls (1261), RendeR (1264), ntndeacon (1291), Dodgerchick (1294)

Chief Rum - 2 - st.cronin (1263), nfg22 (1267)

Dodgerchick - 1 - The Jackal (1113)

st.cronin - 1 - claphamsa (1130)


Day 4 votes:

Dodgerchick - 8 - The Jackal, jeheinz, RendeR, Chief, bsak, clapham, ntndeacon, MikeVic

Chief Rum - 5 - mauboy1, Barkeep, Mr W, oliegirl, Dodgerchick

mauboy1 - 2 - SnDvls, Pumpy Tudors

[MikeVic]

I'll be putting analysis as I see it...

NTN:
-In the first two days, keeps his votes on known villagers that weren't in the running to be lynched. And then day 3 and 4 he puts in late votes to the eventual lynched known villagers.

[ntndeacon]

I scanned Olie and she came back as a villager. For what it is worth.

[ntndeacon]

Mike, be fair. I voted for one of the leading people in day one. I did not then nor have I changed my mind that the day one non lynch was a good thing.

night 2 I will grant you.

[jeheinz72]

Just need scans from Jackal and Mr. W

[MikeVic]

I don't mean it to be attacking you or anything, I'm just looking at the votes to see if there's anything there. After so many days and knowing one wolf and many villagers, the votes should help us out I would think, somehow. :)

[ntndeacon]

I know, just clarifying a point more than anything else, Mike.

[jeheinz72]

Here are the results of people's scans, note, this discounts n0

Scanner - ConfirmedTrue - Confirmed False - Unknown

BK - 1-2-1
CR - 0-2-2
jeheinz - 2-0-1
Mau - 1-1-1
MikeV - 0-1-3
Mr.W - 1-1-1
Olie - 1-0-3
Pumpy - 1-1-2
RendeR - 2-2-0
SnDvls - 0-0-4
Jackal - 1-0-2

That means

Teachers Pet is me, Olie, SnDvls, Jackal
Class Clown is CR, MikeV or SnDvls

[jeheinz72]

Vote RendeR

I looked at the numbers, and while I don't want to give away how I figured this out, it's a lead-pipe-lock folks. Vote early, vote often.

[jeheinz72]

Bah
Vote RendeR

[jeheinz72]

Looks like Cronin voted RendeR on Day One as well, classic wolf move there. But even aside from that, I'm 100% confident that RendeR is a wolf.

[mauchow]

Okay for now. I'll bite only because I work again tonight. I'll have access I'm sure, but as of right now, I'm home til 1:00 or so. Another two hours.

vote render

[st.cronin]

Damnit, I had a nice description typed up and lost the goddamn thing. OK. Flavor tomorrow.

Pieces of claphamsa were found through the school this morning. Bsak16 was also found dead in his bed, a look of terror on his face.

CLAPHAMSA, STUDENT AND EMPATH, HAS BEEN KILLED. HIS FELLOW EMPATH, BSAK16, ALSO DIED. Bsak16 was also a Math Whiz, instead of scanning he was able to read another players accuracy rate.

woo hoo!

[claphamsa]

woo hoo!
jerk!

[st.cronin]

jerk!

;)

[ntndeacon]

ANyone have a ghost trap?

[oliegirl]

Vote RendeR

I looked at the numbers, and while I don't want to give away how I figured this out, it's a lead-pipe-lock folks. Vote early, vote often.

Why do you not want to tell us how you figured this out?

[jeheinz72]

Why do you not want to tell us how you figured this out?

Because I'd rather not give the wolves additional information about what I've deduced.

I will say that my vote cast on RendeR is 100% based on fact. I made no assumptions. No "theory" of mine led me to the conclusion. It's fact.

[oliegirl]

Because I'd rather not give the wolves additional information about what I've deduced.

I will say that my vote cast on RendeR is 100% based on fact. I made no assumptions. No "theory" of mine led me to the conclusion. It's fact.

OK...but, given the ruleset for this game, where we as villagers don't really know anything about roles - how am I to know that you weren't converted last night b/c you had earned our trust by killing Cronin so the wolves figured you as the best target for a conversion? I'm inclined to believe you, but would like something to go on other than "b/c I said so and it's based on fact"...does anyone think I'm crazy for thinking this?

[jeheinz72]

OK...but, given the ruleset for this game, where we as villagers don't really know anything about roles - how am I to know that you weren't converted last night b/c you had earned our trust by killing Cronin so the wolves figured you as the best target for a conversion? I'm inclined to believe you, but would like something to go on other than "b/c I said so and it's based on fact"...does anyone think I'm crazy for thinking this?


Well...

1. A conversion and a kill at night, much less a double. That seems pushing it. In addition, isn't this true of anyone? I mean using that leap of faith to discount me means you might as well never listen to anyone if you're going to go that far.

2. No, you're not crazy but, no offense Olie, you're on my shortlist for the remaining two wolves (not based on fact, admiteddly), so I"m not all that surprised you aren't climbing board with this. I figure you're trying to make me spill my beans.

[Barkeep49]

OK...but, given the ruleset for this game, where we as villagers don't really know anything about roles - how am I to know that you weren't converted last night b/c you had earned our trust by killing Cronin so the wolves figured you as the best target for a conversion? I'm inclined to believe you, but would like something to go on other than "b/c I said so and it's based on fact"...does anyone think I'm crazy for thinking this?
No I agree with you.

JH: You're about as close to a trusted villager as we have at the moment. But I can easily construct a situation where the wolves feel cronin is going down and decide to use a random bonus kill they received in order to earn some trust. And that's on top of a possible conversion. I really want to support you with Render, but as of now I just can't pull the trigger.

[jeheinz72]

No I agree with you.

JH: You're about as close to a trusted villager as we have at the moment. But I can easily construct a situation where the wolves feel cronin is going down and decide to use a random bonus kill they received in order to earn some trust. And that's on top of a possible conversion. I really want to support you with Render, but as of now I just can't pull the trigger.

I'm very surprised at this BK, it means either

A) You're a wolf, which I really haven't believed/thought much of other than a few jab-like notes for you or

B) You're significantly overthinking this. Occam's razor and all.

[Barkeep49]

Let me add that I think JH IS a villager. But I just can't get behind his "I know what I'm doing bit" unless he's become confident that he's the TP in which case then perhaps he lied about his latest scan and found Render to be a wolf? But JH if what you've done really is based on analysis I implore you to share it, in case it's faulty in some way you didn't think of or is good so the rest of us can build off of it and join you in lynching Render.

[Barkeep49]

I'm very surprised at this BK, it means either

A) You're a wolf, which I really haven't believed/thought much of other than a few jab-like notes for you or

B) You're significantly overthinking this. Occam's razor and all.
Yeah that's why I added to it in 1721. I think the idea of you being a wolf is pretty silly. But that doesn't reassure me to vote for Render.

[jeheinz72]

I guess let's put it another way here.

We don't have much (well I have a wolf in my sights, 100%), so what are our options here

1. We can piddle around and take a hunch here, a hunch there and hope we can fend off wolfish manipulation enough to possibly make the right call, provided we're even lucky enough to create even a Wolf vs Villager situation or...

2. We can take the deduced fact of someone who has done the most villager-proving thing so far in this game and just trust that I'm not out to screw people and give me the benefit of the doubt as someone who has shown so far I'm working for the village (moreso than anyone else here who is still alive can say)

[jeheinz72]

Let me add that I think JH IS a villager. But I just can't get behind his "I know what I'm doing bit" unless he's become confident that he's the TP in which case then perhaps he lied about his latest scan and found Render to be a wolf? But JH if what you've done really is based on analysis I implore you to share it, in case it's faulty in some way you didn't think of or is good so the rest of us can build off of it and join you in lynching Render.

My call on RendeR has nothing to do with me, my scanning abilities or if I'm the TP. It just took me looking at my spreadsheet and seeing what was in front of me.

BK, I think you're a villager, you seem to think I am. I can share what I've deduced, but it's not in the best interest of the village for me to do so. It's not faulty. It's not, 100%. There's nothing to be built off of it, it is what it is, RendeR is a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

I'm not going to push for JH to reveal anymore. I respect what he's doing even if I don't agree with it. I'm curious to see if anyone else has any thoughts about today. If something more compelling doesn't come along I will be joining him on Render. JH deserves the benefit of the doubt. If I have time I'm also going to try and do a post analysis for Render (haven't done one of those in a few games and perhaps it'll be helpful).

[Barkeep49]

My call on RendeR has nothing to do with me, my scanning abilities or if I'm the TP. It just took me looking at my spreadsheet and seeing what was in front of me.

BK, I think you're a villager, you seem to think I am. I can share what I've deduced, but it's not in the best interest of the village for me to do so. It's not faulty. It's not, 100%. There's nothing to be built off of it, it is what it is, RendeR is a wolf.
We keep cross posting with each other.

I get what you're saying now. I'm going to try and double check this myself now that I think I understand what you're saying, but it's going to take some work to replicate what you've done.

[jeheinz72]

I'm not going to push for JH to reveal anymore. I respect what he's doing even if I don't agree with it. I'm curious to see if anyone else has any thoughts about today. If something more compelling doesn't come along I will be joining him on Render. JH deserves the benefit of the doubt. If I have time I'm also going to try and do a post analysis for Render (haven't done one of those in a few games and perhaps it'll be helpful).


Good plan BK, I'll peek as well. Once I found this, I did some thinking on it myself, quickly (admiteddly), and the first two things that I noticed/popped into my head were

A) Cronin voting for him Day One. We both/all know that's a wolf move.

B) RendeR, a guy who trumps his disdain for runaway votes and someone I read as someone who thinks for himself being all too happy to just follow my vote yesterday. It pinged me yesterday even, but I was one foot out the door.

I'm gonna get my vote in now. Heiney is the hero of the day, if he says lynch DC then I'm gonna sheep it and vote DC:

Vote DodgerChick

Now I do think I earned that kind of trust yesterday, but I was wrong (though we learned some value from her death). But that struck me then.

I'll look for more as well.

[oliegirl]

OK - as I said before, I suck with number and analysis (I'm a English/History person - NOT a math/science person), but I am a villager so I'm willing to put my trust in Heinz today as he did get Cronin for us yesterday.

VOTE RENDER

[jeheinz72]

Good call Olie!

[oliegirl]

My gut says so...but if you turn out to be wrong, consider yourself lynched tomorrow :D

[jeheinz72]

Hey Path, what's the plan for the weekend. I know I 100% won't be around. I have my grandmothers wake on Saturday and my sons 1st birthday on Sunday, so any slim chance I'd have of making it online anyhow is officially nil.

[jeheinz72]

My gut says so...but if you turn out to be wrong, consider yourself lynched tomorrow :D

I'm not worried. Not one bit (well outside of some crazy game construct). I'll gladly take a lynch if this is wrong.

[oliegirl]

Hey Path, what's the plan for the weekend. I know I 100% won't be around. I have my grandmothers wake on Saturday and my sons 1st birthday on Sunday, so any slim chance I'd have of making it online anyhow is officially nil.

Sorry to hear about your grandmother, but 1st b'day parties are awesome! Have fun!!!!

Path, my availability is totally dependant on the weather...my son has a soccer tournament schedule but it's been raining for about 24 hours and isn't supposed to stop until sometime tomorrow so there is a good chance it's going to be rained out. I'm fine with an extended day 6 (I think 6 - you didn't update the thread title) and a deadline on Sunday evening...

[jeheinz72]

Sorry to hear about your grandmother, but 1st b'day parties are awesome! Have fun!!!!



Thanks! It wasn't out of the blue, so it's not as traumatic as it likely sounds.

And yeah, I can't wait. My daughters was a blast, I'm sure this will too. Always fun to watch a 1-year-old plow into their first piece of cake.

[RendeR]

Ok, so looking at the scans? and the votes? you've got a drop dead lock that I'm a wolf?

If you're going to shanghai MY ass buster you had best bring some facts.

Either lay it out plainly with some sort of facts to back it up or back off. I've been doing whatever I can thus far. Scans can't be trusted as we don't know the TP or CC yet, so the reliability of ANY scan result is suspect.

We have a shit night and you suddenly jump in here spouting off that You KNOW I'm a wolf? WTF dude?

Yes I think for myself but this game doesn't leave a lot of room for following a trail of any kind. You throw my vote for DC out as evidence? You were the man of the hour yesterday, you earned that trust by your actions, but like BK mentioned above, its not unheard of for the wolves to throw someone under the bus to buy that sort of thing.

So lets have it, what's your evidence, seriously. lay it out. Otherwise I have to assume you're in kahoots with the rest of the wolves or have been one all along.

[RendeR]

And yes I'm pissed off. I've tried to do my best for the students in this convoluted fracking game and all I get for the effort is JH spouting nonsense when he's got nothing better to froth at the mouth over.

[MikeVic]

Thanks! It wasn't out of the blue, so it's not as traumatic as it likely sounds.

And yeah, I can't wait. My daughters was a blast, I'm sure this will too. Always fun to watch a 1-year-old plow into their first piece of cake.

Hehe. Plow.

[The Jackal]

Hey guys just got caught up, can't think of a much crappier night kill result than that, especially since bsak gave us nothing.. Did any of his posts even hint at people?

Mr w came up student for me

I'm going to do a little more reading before I hop into any voting

Also, the next deadline being monday after tonight would be fine with me

[jeheinz72]

Haha, I was waiting for the RendeR comeback and you didn't disappoint!

Some points

A) I'm sure you'd like nothing more than for me to spell out exactly how I arrived at this conclusion. I"m not going to do that though. It'd play right into your friends (the other wolves') hands.

B) Your DC vote in and of itself isn't evidence. It's supporting information, if you will.

But sorry, I'm not stating my facts. At least not at *your* request. Since you're a wolf.

[MikeVic]

I'm listening to heinz right now, but just don't want to stick a vote out yet.

[RendeR]

Haha, I was waiting for the RendeR comeback and you didn't disappoint!

Some points

A) I'm sure you'd like nothing more than for me to spell out exactly how I arrived at this conclusion. I"m not going to do that though. It'd play right into your friends (the other wolves') hands.

B) Your DC vote in and of itself isn't evidence. It's supporting information, if you will.

But sorry, I'm not stating my facts. At least not at *your* request. Since you're a wolf.


Then it would appear that you HAVE no evidence, so why the attack on me? This is ridiculous heiney, you should know as well as anyone that a baseless accusation and a flat refusal to lay out your reasonings makes you look like a wolf more than anyone.

What gives?

You say you KNOW I'm a wolf, then explain it. If you can't then seriously, you're full of it as far as I'm concerned.

*takes a deep breath* look, I'm not gonna spiral out of control here. I'm done with that. You think you have something, bring it and let EVERYONE decide for themselves. Don't lead a blind man's bluff charge and expect us to fall for it..AGAIN.

[The Jackal]

For now I'm going to go with heinz because he's really the only one I fully trust

Thing is, render wasn't at the top of my suspicion list so I'm going to see what he and others have to say, maybe someone else can throw out a person they think is wolfy so we have some side discussion to heinz/render?

I can't remember the color coding and I'm still doing all this from my phone so hopefully bold will be enough

vote render

[jeheinz72]

Then it would appear that you HAVE no evidence, so why the attack on me? This is ridiculous heiney, you should know as well as anyone that a baseless accusation and a flat refusal to lay out your reasonings makes you look like a wolf more than anyone.

What gives?

You say you KNOW I'm a wolf, then explain it. If you can't then seriously, you're full of it as far as I'm concerned.

*takes a deep breath* look, I'm not gonna spiral out of control here. I'm done with that. You think you have something, bring it and let EVERYONE decide for themselves. Don't lead a blind man's bluff charge and expect us to fall for it..AGAIN.

You can word your request for my information 1000 different ways, but I'm not giving it up for you. So save your keyboard mate

I'll lay it out like this.

I've tracked every scan
I've looked at who scanned who
I've looked at who got scanned
I've looked at whether scans ended up correct, incorrect or unknown
I've looked, and looked, and looked.
I have practically friggin memorized who everyone has scanned

This morning, I saw it. It was the clear path of logic, in the scans. *Not unknown scans, so it's not wolf trickery. *I didn't fudge any numbers on accuracy or any of that. I saw it. It's a clear route which leads to you being a wolf. Crystal.

That's all I'm saying.

[The Jackal]

One thing I do remember is that clap was going after mau for at least a day before he got killed

[Lorena]

Hey Path, what's the plan for the weekend. I know I 100% won't be around. I have my grandmothers wake on Saturday and my sons 1st birthday on Sunday, so any slim chance I'd have of making it online anyhow is officially nil.

Sorry for your loss heinz :(

[jeheinz72]

It's like those logic word puzzles some of you may have seen when you're a kid. Ya know those whole ones where you get:

"The green car finished behind the blue car, but ahead of the red car"
"Timmy didn't drive the red or green car, and didn't finish last"
"The yellow car has a number higher than that of the blue car, but lower than the green car"

And then you take those clues with the little grid and you figure out that Billy drove the Blue car with the number 3 and finished first and all that? Ya know those.

Yeah, it's like that.

[jeheinz72]

Sorry for your loss heinz :(

No worries, and thanks DC. Sorry for uh gettin' ya voted out. Yeah, that's my bad. ;)

[RendeR]

It's like those logic word puzzles some of you may have seen when you're a kid. Ya know those whole ones where you get:

"The green car finished behind the blue car, but ahead of the red car"
"Timmy didn't drive the red or green car, and didn't finish last"
"The yellow car has a number higher than that of the blue car, but lower than the green car"

And then you take those clues with the little grid and you figure out that Billy drove the Blue car with the number 3 and finished first and all that? Ya know those.

Yeah, it's like that.


Let me send your message back at you:

You can say you KNOW something in as many ways and naalogies as you want heinz, but until you PRODUCE the evidence, you're playing a dangerous game of pure conjecture.

You're unwilling to provide facts because you have nothing beyond your guts to go on and you don't have another suitable target, so you're picking one at random.

I don't buy it. ANd neither should anyone else.

[jeheinz72]

You're unwilling to provide facts because you have nothing beyond your guts to go on and you don't have another suitable target, so you're picking one at random.

I don't buy it. ANd neither should anyone else.

No, I'm not going on guts.

And I don't expect *you* to buy it.

Everyone else should, and seems to be making the right call.

[The Jackal]

Well render, at this point, I'm inclined to trust heinz even though he won't fully reveal his thoughts because for once I actually know he's a good guy, unless a wolf found the gun and took out another wolf to give them full game immunity

But I would also like to say I don't want to see this turn into a runaway, render has made a couple of decent points, but when heinz is 100% he rarely backs down