WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[st.cronin]

Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.

[Lathum]

I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention ;)

welcome to day 2!

[Lathum]

Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.

maybe I am being thick, but what good would it possibly do us to hold back the info from our scans?

[oliegirl]

is there anyone who has not been scanned at all? I can certainly help get a duplicate scan in on them with you if there are any. I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention ;)

I don't think anyone has scanned me yet, but I'm a student so there really isn't any reason to ;)

[SnDvls]

I really don't get the no-lynch phenomenon. If we're playing using normal werewolf strategy, we need lynches as data points. If we're playing using scan data, we need lynches to tell us which scanners are more accurate.

Well with Path clarifying that neither the Teacher's Pet nor the Class Clown know their true roles I'm more inclined to vote no lynch so we don't eliminate a very useful role at this point. I think we should try and at least get one more day of data points either as a group or as individuals IMO

[path12]

Current vote total as of post #747:

nfg22 2 -- Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628)
No Lynch 2 -- mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736)
Lathum 1 -- Dodgerchick(601)
Chief Rum 1 -- Passacaglia(636)
RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(707)
Dodgerchick 1 -- Lathum(725)
Passacaglia 1 -- ntndeacon(738)

No vote: claphamsa, Barkeep49, RendeR, Chief Rum, saldana, SnDvls, nfg22, MikeVic, oliegirl, Mr. Wednesday, jeheinz72

[MikeVic]

I don't know if I'll be on here much before the first deadline, but I'll try to check in to see if I should change my vote. Right now I'll be voting for NFG because he tickles me incorrectly. I will also send in a scan for Lathum for my curiosity. I will be back before the second deadline, so that can change.

VOTE NFG

[st.cronin]

maybe I am being thick, but what good would it possibly do us to hold back the info from our scans?

If everybody has been honest with their scans, then we've been drawing a road map to the teacher's pet for the wolves (since they know which scans are accurate, and which aren't).

[SnDvls]

If you have sex with a wolf, does that make you a wolf too?

I think it just makes you a wolf fu(ker

[Lathum]

If everybody has been honest with their scans, then we've been drawing a road map to the teacher's pet for the wolves (since they know which scans are accurate, and which aren't).

but without that information out there we are in the dark

[st.cronin]

but without that information out there we are in the dark

Only if we keep no-lynching.

[SnDvls]

Vote No Lynch

Unless a very compelling argument beyond what has been discussed today comes up there is where my vote will stay.

IMO, we can get away with one more day of scans and data points and still be okay in this game.

[Barkeep49]

See this is why I hate no lynching on Day 1. Because then on Day 2, people STILL think it's a good idea. And if you follow the D1 argument's they're right. But sooner, rather than later, we need to break out of passive mode and start lynching people.

[jeheinz72]

I'm against no lynching. We need data points, IMO, like someone (olie? BK?) said. She's acted strange in a lot of instance, don't know if it was frustration or what, but I'm willing to take that chance.

Vote Dodgerchick

With that said, I'm going to make my own scan-sheet (since I can't follow other peoples' very well).

[jeheinz72]

See this is why I hate no lynching on Day 1. Because then on Day 2, people STILL think it's a good idea. And if you follow the D1 argument's they're right. But sooner, rather than later, we need to break out of passive mode and start lynching people.

So, ya gonna vote then? ;)

[The Jackal]

I still see some merit to the no lynch in this particular game, but I think if the majority of people think it's better to vote then someone is going to get lynched today. There are three of us on no lynch right now, and I don't think anyone else has expressed a strong desire to do so.

[Barkeep49]

So, ya gonna vote then? ;)
Yes I am. Just trying were best to place my vote.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Lathum. A whole bunch of people learn about the accuracy, or inaccuracy of their scan (including me, as I'm quite curious about that). Further, his willingness to think that I'm good based on the scans on me is troubling to me. It isn't any more natural for the scans to all be correct (as they are) or in correct (which they're not). Yet he thinks they're correct. A wolf would know this. Generally speaking when I'm a wolf I like to say nice things about others since it engenders some goodwill towards me. So since Lathum said something nice about me, seemingly without good cause, I'm now more suspicious of him.

I'm also weary of cronin, who seems to think we should hiding our info.

I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2.

I think NFG's whole game has been to draw attention to himself, though to what ends I'm not sure and he seems to have toned this down today.

[jeheinz72]

Yes I am. Just trying were best to place my vote.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Lathum. A whole bunch of people learn about the accuracy, or inaccuracy of their scan (including me, as I'm quite curious about that). Further, his willingness to think that I'm good based on the scans on me is troubling to me. It isn't any more natural for the scans to all be correct (as they are) or in correct (which they're not). Yet he thinks they're correct. A wolf would know this. Generally speaking when I'm a wolf I like to say nice things about others since it engenders some goodwill towards me. So since Lathum said something nice about me, seemingly without good cause, I'm now more suspicious of him.

I'm also weary of cronin, who seems to think we should hiding our info.

I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2.

I think NFG's whole game has been to draw attention to himself, though to what ends I'm not sure and he seems to have toned this down today.

What are the scans on you BK? 4 "students"?

[claphamsa]

I think we shuld all keep scanning and posting our scanns. and eventually we wil be able to tell somethign from it!

vote nfg33

i might change it later...

[st.cronin]

3-2 nfg over DC now, with no lynch also at 3. Still plenty of time to deadline. Thinking about this, I'd rather vote for somebody like Lathum or BK or Pass than either of those two, as it will help neutralize the wolves advantage in finding the teacher's pet. I'll go with Pass, since he was pinging my radar yesterday. This will give Pass 2 votes, making it nfg and no lynch 3 apiece, and DC and Pass 2 each.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Barkeep49]

What are the scans on you BK? 4 "students"?
The Jackal, saldana, DC, and SnDvls are scanned me as a villager.

[Barkeep49]

I think we shuld all keep scanning and posting our scanns. and eventually we wil be able to tell somethign from it!

vote nfg33

i might change it later...

I have to ask: Why do you vote in navy rather than blue?

[Barkeep49]

Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.
The more I think about it, the more this rankles me.

Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on?

[jeheinz72]

The Jackal, saldana, DC, and SnDvls are scanned me as a villager.

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about"

KnowwhatI'msayin'?

[claphamsa]

I have to ask: Why do you vote in navy rather than blue?
color blind.....

[st.cronin]

The more I think about it, the more this rankles me.

Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on?


The problem is that the wolves already have the correct information - so they will simply target the more accurate scanners each night, before we know who they are. Am I wrong about that? And if I'm not wrong, how do we counter that?

[Barkeep49]

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about"

KnowwhatI'msayin'?
Not really. Why assume 66% accuracy? Seems to me we should be assuming 50% accuracy (well actually 52.5%%). With those odds, it's only 1/16 that 4 people scanning me would all get the same result. But it's just as likely to be 1/16 getting it right, as it is getting it wrong.

[jeheinz72]

Not really. Why assume 66% accuracy? Seems to me we should be assuming 50% accuracy (well actually 52.5%%). With those odds, it's only 1/16 that 4 people scanning me would all get the same result. But it's just as likely to be 1/16 getting it right, as it is getting it wrong.

Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers)

[Barkeep49]

The problem is that the wolves already have the correct information - so they will simply target the more accurate scanners each night, before we know who they are. Am I wrong about that? And if I'm not wrong, how do we counter that?
So what if the wolves figure out who is more accurate. The wolves would have to take out the people who are both incredibly accurate AND inaccurate. And later on in the game that itself could give us info about who else might be accurate or not.

You've stated the advantage that the wolves gain. I get it. What's the advantage to the villagers by staying quiet? I think going public has its clear advantages and we shouldn't not do something just because it helps the other side. We should do what makes the most sense for the villagers. And in this game, like nearly all others, that means sharing info.

I hate to have to get on that high horse again, and was quite thankful when it seemed like people had finally seen the common sense of that in this game at least.

[Barkeep49]

Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers)
Why assume 1/3 accuracy? It's a bad assumption. But rolling with that 1/3 accuracy rate, assumption they're all going to get me wrong 1/5, if I were a wolf. That's not an insignificant error rate.

[st.cronin]

The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?

[The Jackal]

Ok, I'm out, if I'm back befofre the deadline I'll certainly re-join the conversation.

And by the way, I noticed someone asked who hadn't been scanned earlier, and I don't think anyone has scanned me yet - so feel free.

[jeheinz72]

Why assume 1/3 accuracy? It's a bad assumption. But rolling with that 1/3 accuracy rate, assumption they're all going to get me wrong 1/5, if I were a wolf. That's not an insignificant error rate.

I'm just saying it's not to be scoffed at. 80% chance of a villager looks pretty good when I'm a big "?" on a LOT of people.

[Barkeep49]

The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?
Yes you are. So we lose one today and one tomorrow. I don't see how we lose them both so quickly, as that would have to be some really bad luck, but alright I'll go with it. The average scan accuracy is 52.2%. CR did the distribution chart yesterday and the odds are that we have at least 1 or 2 other well above average players for both accuracy and inaccuracy. Sure it's not perfect, but don't let perfection stand in the way of good enough.

[Barkeep49]

I'm just saying it's not to be scoffed at. 80% chance of a villager looks pretty good when I'm a big "?" on a LOT of people.
Hmm. You're right. The math is in my favor. I just wished I had heard that form Lathum first. I'm still suspicious of his trust in me.

[Lorena]

You guys are hysterical! I was really upset earlier but now it's laughable, it truly is. So the reason why I'm suspicious is because I was "defending" nfg? Puhleez. THINK ABOUT IT: 1 person says I'm a wolf.. 1 person! This same person came out as a wolf scan by 3 people. Lynching me will give you shit for information other than I'm a student. Lynching Lathum will at least give us a little information on how this scan thing works.

I guess since no one is following me on Lathum, I'm going with nfg.. self perservation, obviously.

unvote lathum
vote nfg

[nfg22]

Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.

Vote Lathum

[Lorena]

Hmm. You're right. The math is in my favor. I just wished I had heard that form Lathum first. I'm still suspicious of his trust in me.

Lathum is very sneaky like that.

[Barkeep49]

DC, would you rather vote for Lathum? I know I'd rather vote for Lathum than any of the others out there and so I would join you in voting for him if it made you feel better.

[Lorena]

Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.

Vote Lathum

yes, see post 788

[Barkeep49]

With nfg's vote (and hopefully DC going back) I'm ready to go onto Lathum for reasons previously stated (gain lots of info, suspicious of his trust in me).

Vote Lathum

[st.cronin]

Yes you are. So we lose one today and one tomorrow. I don't see how we lose them both so quickly, as that would have to be some really bad luck, but alright I'll go with it. The average scan accuracy is 52.2%. CR did the distribution chart yesterday and the odds are that we have at least 1 or 2 other well above average players for both accuracy and inaccuracy. Sure it's not perfect, but don't let perfection stand in the way of good enough.

My point is if we lose the Teacher's pet four days from now, we get four days of posts and information to go over - even if he hasn't published his scans.

I agree its a difficult spot for the village to be in, but I think the "release all information" is a wolf-helping strategy, not a village-helping strategy. Which has me looking at you quizzically.

[nfg22]

OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?

[Lorena]

DC, would you rather vote for Lathum? I know I'd rather vote for Lathum than any of the others out there and so I would join you in voting for him if it made you feel better.

If you wanna vote for Lathum, by all means, go ahead. The only reason why I moved off of him and onto nfg was to save my ass.

[Lorena]

OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?

cuz you said, "even though".. how's that for proof!!

[Barkeep49]

My point is if we lose the Teacher's pet four days from now, we get four days of posts and information to go over - even if he hasn't published his scans.

I agree its a difficult spot for the village to be in, but I think the "release all information" is a wolf-helping strategy, not a village-helping strategy. Which has me looking at you quizzically.
Would you rather have 4 days of posts or 4 days of scans? The wolves would have to get damn lucky to nail the class clown or teacher's pet tonight. Not impossible, but certainly lucky. And when/if the those two roles go down we gain information not only about who they scanned, but also about the accuracy of others who have scanned those players. So they're staying around longer is good. But lots of information is revealed whenever they die and I'd rather not have to play did the did he leave us hints game, when they'd have no idea that they SHOULD be leaving us hints. Let's remove the ambiguity and get good, solid, bankable info. Info that we can use to build a COT.

[Barkeep49]

If you wanna vote for Lathum, by all means, go ahead. The only reason why I moved off of him and onto nfg was to save my ass.
If you vote Lathum, he'll have 3 votes on him. NFG has 4. You have 1. Hell no lynch has 3 votes at the moment, which is ahead of you. I don't think you're in danger. Instead you should join us in putting the man who slandered you in danger :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

You can disagree all you want about a day 1 lynch in this game but to say you think day 2 would be a crapshoot with this ruleset is just plain wrong IMO
We barely have any more data today than we had yesterday about who is a wolf. We have started to accumulate data that will help us determine who's accurate and who isn't, and down the road we may want to come back to N1 scan results, but we're barely ahead of where we were yesterday.

That having been said, one way to address that deficiency is to start lynching people. Otherwise, we're relying on the wolves, and they're going to have a 100% villager hit rate.

[st.cronin]

The wolves would have to get damn lucky to nail the class clown or teacher's pet tonight.

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.

[Lorena]

If you vote Lathum, he'll have 3 votes on him. NFG has 4. You have 1. Hell no lynch has 3 votes at the moment, which is ahead of you. I don't think you're in danger. Instead you should join us in putting the man who slandered you in danger :)

yeah sure

unvote nfg
vote lathum

[Mr. Wednesday]

The more I think about it, the more this rankles me.

Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on?

Barkeep, I agree that we need to get the information out there, but I noted fairly early on that we might want to ration our information a little bit to avoid making it too easy for the wolves. I'm not saying I have any particular ideas (and short of a specific plan that everyone agrees with, full disclosure is best), but I don't think cronin's crazy to be raising the idea.

[Barkeep49]

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.
I'm pretty good with stats and I have to say that I can't think of an easy way of doing this.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, I agree that we need to get the information out there, but I noted fairly early on that we might want to ration our information a little bit to avoid making it too easy for the wolves. I'm not saying I have any particular ideas (and short of a specific plan that everyone agrees with, full disclosure is best), but I don't think cronin's crazy to be raising the idea.
If I thought he were crazy I'd have ignored it or voted for him rather than engage him. I don't think he's crazy, but I do think it's a bad idea.

[Pumpy Tudors]

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

[Pumpy Tudors]

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.
I say this because I really don't want "no lynch" to win. We have to take somebody out tonight, just to get some information.

[Mr. Wednesday]

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

I'd recomment doing the math through correctly before making decisions based on it. On average, we're about 50% accurate, although there will be large swings. At this point, it's a little surprising that anyone would come up with all four scans as anything, seer or wolf. I haven't tried to work out whether the odds favor the scans all being right or all being wrong, but at this point, our scans are mainly useful for a) figuring who can spot wolves and who can't, and b) leaving a scan trail for use later in the game.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers)

There's nothing "safe" about assuming 33% accuracy, since 67% inaccuracy is really equivalent to 67% accuracy, only inverted. The safe choice is to assume that everyone's around 50%.

[Barkeep49]

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.
The reason this is so hard is that we don't know who is a wolf and who is not. It could be that as few as 1 person got their scan right or as many as 12 got it right (assuming 4 wolves). So the odds are somewhere between 5% and 60%.

[Barkeep49]

I'd recomment doing the math through correctly before making decisions based on it. On average, we're about 50% accurate, although there will be large swings. At this point, it's a little surprising that anyone would come up with all four scans as anything, seer or wolf. I haven't tried to work out whether the odds favor the scans all being right or all being wrong, but at this point, our scans are mainly useful for a) figuring who can spot wolves and who can't, and b) leaving a scan trail for use later in the game.
There's only a 1/16 chance that everyone gets it right or wrong so about a 1/8 that 4 people viewing one person all come up with the same scan.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?
Yes, you're wrong that we're pretty much fucked if we lose them. We are reasonably likely to have several other high-accuracy (but imperfect) seers. The wolves will be going after all of them, but it's going to be until day 3 or day 4 when they can really start to home in on those roles, and by then we'll have a decent base of information.

Along those lines, I think we should have some discussion about the extent to which we want to repeat scanning of people. Repeat scans give more information about accuracy, but at the expense of better coverage for the more accurate seers.

[st.cronin]

I'm actually starting to think that people aren't being forthcoming - no n-0 wolf scans, 4 villager scans on BK. I wonder if some villagers aren't playing the disinformation game..

[Barkeep49]

The reason this is so hard is that we don't know who is a wolf and who is not. It could be that as few as 1 person got their scan right or as many as 12 got it right (assuming 4 wolves). So the odds are somewhere between 5% and 60%.
This is wrong. 3 is the minimum number of people who could have had a correct scan last night. So the range is 15-60 percent chance of getting the teacher's pet or class clown.

[Barkeep49]

Yes, you're wrong that we're pretty much fucked if we lose them. We are reasonably likely to have several other high-accuracy (but imperfect) seers. The wolves will be going after all of them, but it's going to be until day 3 or day 4 when they can really start to home in on those roles, and by then we'll have a decent base of information.

Along those lines, I think we should have some discussion about the extent to which we want to repeat scanning of people. Repeat scans give more information about accuracy, but at the expense of better coverage for the more accurate seers.
I think accuracy has to be the name of the game early on.

[SnDvls]

I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2.




I can see you point if it was day 3 or after, but it's day 2!!! we have no solid info to go one and this at least gives the Teacher's Pet a fighting chance to get in another view...heck even the Class Clown can help us at this point.

This isn't a typical WW game where the seer 1) knows their role and 2) can announce it without having doubt once they've done several scans.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.
It depends on what, exactly, we got out of N0.

Based purely on a single night of scans, they basically have no firm info; anybody who was right could be the Teacher's Pet, and anybody who was wrong could be the Fool.

As we add nights onto that, their odds of picking those two out rise, but I think they're going to need to be really lucky to get both of them early.

[Barkeep49]

I'm actually starting to think that people aren't being forthcoming - no n-0 wolf scans, 4 villager scans on BK. I wonder if some villagers aren't playing the disinformation game..
Well if they are we could be really sin screwed in a couple of different ways (if they're the class clown/teacher's pet or if they have scans in common with those players).

To give one example: let's say I'm a regular villager. Let's say I scan you and find you're a wolf. I lie and post that you're a villager. The next day you get lynched. I then appear to be less accurate than I really am, thus diminishing my credibility. This problem is only compounded if I turn out to be the cc/tp.

[Barkeep49]

I can see you point if it was day 3 or after, but it's day 2!!! we have no solid info to go one and this at least gives the Teacher's Pet a fighting chance to get in another view...heck even the Class Clown can help us at this point.

This isn't a typical WW game where the seer 1) knows their role and 2) can announce it without having doubt once they've done several scans.
We're not going to have a better idea of the accuracy of our information tomorrow, we're just going to have more information. The longer we wait to start finding out about the accuracy of our information, the worse it is.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think accuracy has to be the name of the game early on.
The thing is, though, let's assume (for the sake of argument) that I'm 10% accurate. I had my one good read on Passacaglia on night 0, and now I keep scanning him. By day 4, it will be pretty obvious to the wolves that I'm low accuracy and thus high risk, so they kill me. At that point, the survivors have to lynch Passacaglia to figure out how accurate I was, and when they find he's just a villager, there has been ZERO value derived from my scans.

We have to have balance. I'm not going to scan Passacaglia again tonight.

[jeheinz72]

There's nothing "safe" about assuming 33% accuracy, since 67% inaccuracy is really equivalent to 67% accuracy, only inverted. The safe choice is to assume that everyone's around 50%.

But it depends what you are using the number for.
Like I said, I'm not using that 80% confidence level to make an actual decision about vote or not-vote BK. I'm just using it to put him in the pile of people that aren't the best logical choice right now.

Get what I'm saying?

I mean yeah, I wouldn't stake my life on those numbers, but for that purpose, it's fine.

[st.cronin]

Well if they are we could be really sin screwed in a couple of different ways (if they're the class clown/teacher's pet or if they have scans in common with those players).

To give one example: let's say I'm a regular villager. Let's say I scan you and find you're a wolf. I lie and post that you're a villager. The next day you get lynched. I then appear to be less accurate than I really am, thus diminishing my credibility. This problem is only compounded if I turn out to be the cc/tp.

If I assume you're a villager, isn't it highly likely that one of the players scanning you is the teacher's pet?

[jeheinz72]

Just to have it for posterity's sake, Night 1

Clap scanned twice, 1 good, 1 bad
Pass scanned twice, 2 bad
Lathum scanned five times, 3 bad, 2 good
BK scanned 4 times, all 4 good
Chief Rum scanned twice, 2 good
nfg scanned once, 1 bad
DC scanned once, 1 bad
RendeR scanned once, 1 good

People with "true" scans

MikeVic, St. Cronin, jeheinz72: 1


Take all of this with a grain of salt, but I think it's going to be information that's helpful to keep a running tally of

[jeheinz72]

For the record, I'm completely eliminating factoring in any N0 results. Something is definitely weird with what happened there. So take the 2nd section as just an addendum for now, those are all "true" scans but were N0 scans.

[Lathum]

Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.

Vote Lathum

I didn't even vote for you :confused:

[Lathum]

OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?

Please show me where I have done any convincing today you are a wolf?

[Lathum]

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

This statement right here is why I said I was screwed this morning.

Mob mentality

[Lathum]

Just to have it for posterity's sake, Night 1

Clap scanned twice, 1 good, 1 bad
Pass scanned twice, 2 bad
Lathum scanned five times, 3 bad, 2 good
BK scanned 4 times, all 4 good
Chief Rum scanned twice, 2 good
nfg scanned once, 1 bad
DC scanned once, 1 bad
RendeR scanned once, 1 good

People with "true" scans

MikeVic, St. Cronin, jeheinz72: 1


Take all of this with a grain of salt, but I think it's going to be information that's helpful to keep a running tally of


What do you mean by "true" scans?

[st.cronin]

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

[jeheinz72]

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

Exactly. Allegedly all 3 of us scanned Grey and got a result that he was Good and he ended up Good.

[Lathum]

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

ok, I get it. Thanks.

[Lathum]

Well, MikeVic scanned Grey and he came up good. He also scanned nfg22 and claims nfg came up wolf. If we want info on how accurate someone is that could be a good place to start.

Since I have to go to class in a little while and may be out until the deadline

UNVOTE DODGERCHICK
VOTE NFG22

I still think DC is guilty but this is somewhat of a self preservation move, all be it early.

[Lathum]

Oh, and I find it an odd coincidence that even though there are votes for Pass and no lynch that DC and nfg22 are alligning to vote for me.

Are they worried I may be onto something?

[st.cronin]

Replace MikeVic with st.cronin and nfg22 with Passacaglia and you have the same exact argument.

[st.cronin]

dola, I'm a lot more suspicious of Pass and Barkeep than any of Lathum, nfg, and Dodgerchick.

[oliegirl]

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

[Lathum]

Replace MikeVic with st.cronin and nfg22 with Passacaglia and you have the same exact argument.

I agree, but DC linked herself to nfg22 when she defended him day 1. I think from a pure WW aspect we find out more by lynching one of them.

I am fine if Pass is lynched since there were 2 positive wolf scans on him last night. Plus I know it has no bearing, but he has been a wolf alot lately and these things seem to go in streaks.

[Barkeep49]

dola, I'm a lot more suspicious of Pass and Barkeep than any of Lathum, nfg, and Dodgerchick.
You feel pass and I are linked or are suspicous of us separately?

[st.cronin]

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

I am as leery as anybody of using n-0 results, I was just trying to clarify somebody else's argument.

[Lathum]

anyone have a vote count?

[MikeVic]

I scanned clap, not nfg.

[st.cronin]

You feel pass and I are linked or are suspicous of us separately?

Not linked. Day 1 Pass was pinging my radar for reasons I can't explain. 2/3 of his scans last night came back wolf.

As for you, I am actually hoping you are a wolf - otherwise I think we lose the teacher's pet tonight. Or, another possibility is that one of the wolves has an ability to distort scans in some way. I guess I'm just a little weirded out by your scan results last night.

[Lathum]

Current vote total as of post #747:

nfg22 5 -- Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628) MikeVic (757) Clap (769)Lathum (830)
No Lynch 3 -- mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736) Sndvls (762)
Lathum 3 -- Dodgerchick(800) nfg22 (787) Barkeep (791)
Chief Rum 1 -- Passacaglia(636)
Dodgerchick 1 -- Jheinze (764)
Passacaglia 2 -- ntndeacon(738) StCronin (770)

No vote: RendeR, Chief Rum, saldana, oliegirl, Mr. Wednesday

[Lathum]

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

Pumpy, right now the person you scanned as a wolf is in the lead. If you feel I am a better candidate then by all means change your vote, but don't change it just because other people are.

Like I said, I don't think it's a coincidence DC and nfg22 are alligning against me when they could easily have both voted for Pass.

[Lathum]

I also find it interesting that all 3 votes for me came in the span of 13 posts.

[Lathum]

OK, I am off to my last class, not sure what else I can say. Hopefully I will be able to get on before the deadline in case I need to try and save myself.

[st.cronin]

There's still 5 people haven't voted, so this could go a lot of different ways.

[RendeR]

This one is tough, there are 2 front runners and then there is the person that raises my hackles. I dunno who to vote for.

Do i vote lathum in the hopes of keeping the vote close and seeing if someone rushes to his rescue?

Do I vote NFG and basicaly hammer the nail in his coffin?

Do I vote Passacaglia because every time I read his posts my spidey-sense go BOING!??

I hate early votes.

More later.

[jeheinz72]

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

Agreed olie, I even added that disclaimer in the next post.

[Passacaglia]

that would leave a huge trail and why the risk? a positive scan won't really hust you.



It is pretty improbable, but not impossible that all 4 scans are wrong.

But isn't it almost as improbable that all 4 scans are right?

[jeheinz72]

Well I'm off, my vote stays on DC for today.

[Passacaglia]

I changed my mind on that as I fleshed out the ruleset a bit further. It's mentioned somewhere later in the thread, but to clarify:

Neither the Teacher's Pet or Class Clown are aware of their identity. All they know is that they are students.

Thanks for letting us know! :p

[Lorena]

I agree, but DC linked herself to nfg22 when she defended him day 1. I think from a pure WW aspect we find out more by lynching one of them.

Lathum, you're putting a lot of stock into nothing.

Seriously.

[Passacaglia]

is there anyone who has not been scanned at all? I can certainly help get a duplicate scan in on them with you if there are any. I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention ;)

I posted a list of people who were not scanned N0 a while back. In fact, it was in reply to one of your posts.

[Passacaglia]

Well with Path clarifying that neither the Teacher's Pet nor the Class Clown know their true roles I'm more inclined to vote no lynch so we don't eliminate a very useful role at this point. I think we should try and at least get one more day of data points either as a group or as individuals IMO

Or we can vote for one of the two people that we know is not either one.

Also, now that we know the teacher's pet doesn't know his identity, I'm putting a stop to my plan, which was to make sure nfg gets lynched tonight. Since Pumpy was so sure of his scan, I thought he was hinting to being the teacher's pet, but if he doesn't know, that theory is out the window.

[st.cronin]

Or we can vote for one of the two people that we know is not either one.


You made this argument before, and I still don't understand - with only one person's identity revealed, how can we be sure that anybody is neither the Pet nor the Fool?

[Passacaglia]

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about"

KnowwhatI'msayin'?

I'd like to see how you arrived at that "less than 20%" figure.

[RendeR]

One thing bothers me about all our assumptions. based on statistical probability, the average scanning ability SHOULD equal 50% for the entire group of us.

But since its rolled randomly, thats not necessarily true now is it?

What if the random rolls for our skill levels were all under 50%? Or all Over 50%? How the hell can we really build any type of theories when we just don't know?

[Passacaglia]

Exactly. Allegedly all 3 of us scanned Grey and got a result that he was Good and he ended up Good.

I thought you were eliminating N0 scans?

[RendeR]

I posted a list of people who were not scanned N0 a while back. In fact, it was in reply to one of your posts.


I meant after N1 pass, sorry.

[Passacaglia]

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

Ah, I see olie's got my back. It was The Heinz who said he was eliminating N0 scans, then mentioned these "true" scans. I don't discount that the scans were good (I had already mentioned them a few pages ago), but I also didn't say anything about eliminating N0 scans.

[Passacaglia]

You made this argument before, and I still don't understand - with only one person's identity revealed, how can we be sure that anybody is neither the Pet nor the Fool?

You probably just tuned it out, since it involved N0 scans. Both CR and Mr. Wednesday scanned the same person N1 that they did N0, and their results were different.

[st.cronin]

You probably just tuned it out, since it involved N0 scans. Both CR and Mr. Wednesday scanned the same person N1 that they did N0, and their results were different.

Gotcha.

[Lorena]

Well, since we're discussing scans, wouldn't that be another reason to lynch Lathum, so we can have some idea of how it works? He's had the most scans of anyone out there.

For the record, I changed my mind and scanned Barkeep again just to see how this plays out.

[Passacaglia]

One thing bothers me about all our assumptions. based on statistical probability, the average scanning ability SHOULD equal 50% for the entire group of us.

But since its rolled randomly, thats not necessarily true now is it?

What if the random rolls for our skill levels were all under 50%? Or all Over 50%? How the hell can we really build any type of theories when we just don't know?

We're hoping to get an idea of someone's accuracy, through death. For example, we know that cronin, MikeVic, and The Heinz scanned grey. He came up good, and grey was good. So it's likely that their scans are higher.

Now as we get more data, we'll have a better base to build on. Tomorrow, some people might be 0/3 1/3 2/3 or 3/3, or in the case of CR and MW, they could be 1/4 2/4 or 3/4 -- the more data we get, the better our estimate of their skill will be.

[Passacaglia]

I meant after N1 pass, sorry.

I don't have that on me -- but I figured you could use that as a base to figure out who's never been scanned. I think I posted a list of N1 scans somewhere, with the only scan missing being cronin's scan of me.

[oliegirl]

VOTE NFG22

I'm usually suspicious of Lathum, but I just don't see it right now...might come back to bite me in the ass, but for now, it makes a lot more sense to me to vote for NFG. I think he's made some mistakes, and if he is a wolf, they are common "rookie wolf" mistakes, the same ones I made the 1st (and only) time I was a wolf. I'm also suspicious of DC, but am willing to give her the beneift of the doubt right now.

[saldana]

i havent played with nfg before that i recall, so part of this is my own applied value to players, but a bigger part of it is the bit from yesterday...i have voted for (and led) lynches on day 2 based on alot less...i would have been equally as comfortable voting DC....the ridiculous graphic and outburst when no one had even voted for her yet was the kind of over the top reaction i have seen wolves pull bunches of times. (and even done myself)

vote nfg

[st.cronin]

7-4 nfg now.

[Lorena]

Soooooo..... everyone's voting nfg because.... what again?

I have a terrible way of getting my point across because no one seems to get what I'm saying. How many people scanned nfg? 1 person? how many people scanned barkeep? 4 people? how many people scanned lathum? was it 6? I mean if information is what we're going after, wouldn't it make sense to lynch the person who's had the most scans on them?

If we're lynching nfg because he made a "mistake", that's a very poor excuse, imo. I'm not defending the guy, i'm just saying if we want answers to the mechanics of how the scans work, we should look for alternative.

if nfg goes down and is a villager, what have learned? nothing.

[st.cronin]

Dunno if this is important, but the two players Pass pointed out as being "safe" votes haven't yet voted.

[nfg22]

Can someone show me what mistakes I made, so I know in the future how not to get caught? Oh wait. I forgot Im not a wolf. Seriously, what persay mistakes did I make? I used the words even though...that is all.

[Lorena]

i havent played with nfg before that i recall, so part of this is my own applied value to players, but a bigger part of it is the bit from yesterday...i have voted for (and led) lynches on day 2 based on alot less...i would have been equally as comfortable voting DC....the ridiculous graphic and outburst when no one had even voted for her yet was the kind of over the top reaction i have seen wolves pull bunches of times. (and even done myself)

vote nfg

yes, you lead the charget to get me lynched because I sent DT an IM as a reminder to vote.

[Lorena]

yes, you lead the charget to get me lynched because I sent DT an IM as a reminder to vote.

yeah, that was wolf-like behavior. lol


out 4 da night.

[saldana]

Soooooo..... everyone's voting nfg because.... what again?

I have a terrible way of getting my point across because no one seems to get what I'm saying. How many people scanned nfg? 1 person? how many people scanned barkeep? 4 people? how many people scanned lathum? was it 6? I mean if information is what we're going after, wouldn't it make sense to lynch the person who's had the most scans on them?

If we're lynching nfg because he made a "mistake", that's a very poor excuse, imo. I'm not defending the guy, i'm just saying if we want answers to the mechanics of how the scans work, we should look for alternative.

if nfg goes down and is a villager, what have learned? nothing.

bold is mine

if you arent defending him, what exactly do you call what it is you have been doing all day...someone has to get lynched...thats how this works

you havent provided any reason to vote for anyone else, or a legitimate reason NOT to vote for nfg...all you have said is you dont think our reasons are good enough....fine...i dont think your reasoning that my reasons arent good enough are good enough.

[st.cronin]

Saldana, I don't want to speak for DC, but her point about lynching somebody with more than one scan is certainly reasonable.

[nfg22]

Can I just say it now? You are all being duped and I will give four answers why.

1) Reasonably we want to figure out who is reliable. Lathum has the most votes, he provides the best opportunity.

2)We also want to vote for someone that has a few wolf votes. Yes, I know they arent reliable but if they are we just let one get away. Lathum has three wolf votes against him.

3) Not only am I not a wolf but I offered everyone to scan me. Lathum...umm...didnt.

4) Not only are you all voting against me, but it is because Lathum(the lead candidate) told you all to. Does anyone think he is biased?

I realize I am biased, but I also am right. Now if you vote for me, just promise you will kill him tommorow when you find my true identity pls thx.

[Barkeep49]

As for you, I am actually hoping you are a wolf - otherwise I think we lose the teacher's pet tonight. Or, another possibility is that one of the wolves has an ability to distort scans in some way. I guess I'm just a little weirded out by your scan results last night.

That's fine be weirded out. But your paranoia that we're going to lose the teacher's pet because of some masterstroke by the wolves does not seem grounded in reality. I'm not saying we won't lose the tp/cc but I'd assign it a lower probability than you (and probably substantially so).

[Passacaglia]

7-4 nfg now.

Who has 4? I see 3 for DC and 3 for Lathum.

[st.cronin]

You're right, Pass, my mistake. 3 each for DC and Lathum.

[st.cronin]

For the record, I think nfg makes a compelling defense. This vote does not seem likely to be helpful, in my estimation.

[Passacaglia]

For the record, I think nfg makes a compelling defense. This vote does not seem likely to be helpful, in my estimation.

Let's do it, bra.

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE LATHUM

[MikeVic]

The way I see it right now is:
-If nfg's lynch sticks and he ends up villager, I trust DC more and will pay close attention to Lathum.
-If nfg's lynch sticks and he comes back wolf, I don't trust DC.

[st.cronin]

In the case of a close vote, I'll throw my vote behind one of Pass, Lathum, or Barkeep.

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE LATHUM

[st.cronin]

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)
Lathum - 5 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882)
No Lynch - 3 - mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736), SnDvls (762)
Passacaglia - 1 - ntndeacon(738)
Dodgerchick - 1 - jeheinz72 (764)

No vote: RendeR, Chief Rum, Mr. Wednesday

[RendeR]

So I read this as 5-5 now?

[RendeR]

Doh, nevermind =)

[nfg22]

Pay close attention? When I turn up a villager you will pay close attention? Are you serious? Lathum has been dead set against me with no info other then as a scapegoat. Mike...What evidence does he have against me? one wolf vote. What do I have against him? 3 wolf votes....

[RendeR]

Let's make this closer and see what shakes out.


VOTE LATHUM

[Mr. Wednesday]

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

[nfg22]

Saldana, Claph....I cleared both of you...how are you still against me?

[nfg22]

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

If they are wolf scans and I am a wolf...then why didnt I hop on board? You deny information by mere assumption that they are wolf scans...This is ridiculous. I hope you are sorry tonight at 10.

[st.cronin]

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

That seems a bit hyperbolic.

[saldana]

Can I just say it now? You are all being duped and I will give four answers why.

1) Reasonably we want to figure out who is reliable. Lathum has the most votes, he provides the best opportunity.

2)We also want to vote for someone that has a few wolf votes. Yes, I know they arent reliable but if they are we just let one get away. Lathum has three wolf votes against him.

3) Not only am I not a wolf but I offered everyone to scan me. Lathum...umm...didnt.

4) Not only are you all voting against me, but it is because Lathum(the lead candidate) told you all to. Does anyone think he is biased?

I realize I am biased, but I also am right. Now if you vote for me, just promise you will kill him tommorow when you find my true identity pls thx.

1)this is not incorrect

2)this is not incorrect

3)he certainly did...numerous times...he offered himself, and offered zero resistance when he was placed on the "scan list"....you on the other hand, showed regret at the possibility of being scanned

4)no he didnt...he wanted people to vote for dodgerchick...the only reason he is voting for you is because no one wanted to follow him and more people were picking you without his, or anyone elses, encouragement.

nice defense...next time actually try having your facts straight....you keep saying you arent a wolf, but half-truths like this are the staples of wolves trying to get themselves off the hook

[saldana]

Pay close attention? When I turn up a villager you will pay close attention? Are you serious? Lathum has been dead set against me with no info other then as a scapegoat. Mike...What evidence does he have against me? one wolf vote. What do I have against him? 3 wolf votes....

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)
Lathum - 5 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882)


i will say it again...lots of other people were on you way before lathum was.

[Passacaglia]

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

They're no more valuable than villager scans, you mean? I can agree with that. But all the scans on Lathum have got to tell us something at the end of the day.

[nfg22]

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?

[RendeR]

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?


Easy, to gain trust.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?

Wolves like to clear, or otherwise vouch for, villagers to:

a) gain the trust of the villager they're clearing
b) drop hints that they are the seer (in a game with just one seer)

[Barkeep49]

1)this is not incorrect

2)this is not incorrect

3)he certainly did...numerous times...he offered himself, and offered zero resistance when he was placed on the "scan list"....you on the other hand, showed regret at the possibility of being scanned

4)no he didnt...he wanted people to vote for dodgerchick...the only reason he is voting for you is because no one wanted to follow him and more people were picking you without his, or anyone elses, encouragement.

nice defense...next time actually try having your facts straight....you keep saying you arent a wolf, but half-truths like this are the staples of wolves trying to get themselves off the hook
Could you elaborate on 1 & 2?

[Barkeep49]

Wolves like to clear, or otherwise vouch for, villagers to:

a) gain the trust of the villager they're clearing
b) drop hints that they are the seer (in a game with just one seer)
But dropping in people as a wolf has all sorts of advantages that clearing people don't have.

[Mr. Wednesday]

They're no more valuable than villager scans, you mean? I can agree with that. But all the scans on Lathum have got to tell us something at the end of the day.

I agree with you there, my main concern is that I think Lathum's had a lot of positive contributions in the short time that this game has been underway, and I'm not thrilled about losing him. In particular, I don't like the way that he's been maneuvered into being the "best information" candidate. I don't know that there's anything untoward there, but there's good cover for it.

[nfg22]

1)this is not incorrect

2)this is not incorrect

3)he certainly did...numerous times...he offered himself, and offered zero resistance when he was placed on the "scan list"....you on the other hand, showed regret at the possibility of being scanned

4)no he didnt...he wanted people to vote for dodgerchick...the only reason he is voting for you is because no one wanted to follow him and more people were picking you without his, or anyone elses, encouragement.

nice defense...next time actually try having your facts straight....you keep saying you arent a wolf, but half-truths like this are the staples of wolves trying to get themselves off the hook

1+2) This is not incorrect? you mean I am correct? Trying to make me look worse by using a double negative?

3+4) He implicated me and dodgerchick...the reason why dodgerchick is implicated is because she DEFENDED me. If she defended me then that means I had to of already been accused. Second, those two words were brought up by Lathum *cough* wolf *cough*.

Saldana...and to a lesser extent claph. You will be looked at as a wolf when you kill me because I cleared both of you...and then you turn your back on me....if I were a wolf. I would have picked a non-wolf and scanned them as a wolf.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If they are wolf scans and I am a wolf...then why didnt I hop on board? You deny information by mere assumption that they are wolf scans...This is ridiculous. I hope you are sorry tonight at 10.
I don't think you understand what I was saying. You've been throwing around numbers about how many times a particular person has come up a wolf, but in aggregate that's a meaningless number. The value that the scans have is in telling us about the seers now (not the scanned), and the scanned only later, when we have some idea of the accuracy of our seers.

That seems a bit hyperbolic.
For today, it's true.

[st.cronin]

I agree with you there, my main concern is that I think Lathum's had a lot of positive contributions in the short time that this game has been underway, and I'm not thrilled about losing him. In particular, I don't like the way that he's been maneuvered into being the "best information" candidate. I don't know that there's anything untoward there, but there's good cover for it.

What do you mean, "maneuvered"?

[Passacaglia]

I agree with you there, my main concern is that I think Lathum's had a lot of positive contributions in the short time that this game has been underway, and I'm not thrilled about losing him. In particular, I don't like the way that he's been maneuvered into being the "best information" candidate. I don't know that there's anything untoward there, but there's good cover for it.

Can you elaborate on that? What positive contributions has he brought?

[Mr. Wednesday]

What do you mean, "maneuvered"?

Was Lathum put up as one of the proposed scan-ees on day 1, or did he just happen to catch more scans than anyone else?

[Chief Rum]

First things first...I scanned Chief Rum. I am always leary of someone who is trying to be overly helpful, i feel that he is covering up for something. Chief came up as a student.

Next, let's not all jump on the lynching Lathum bandwagon just yet. Remember none of us really know our success rate, plus we are banking on everyone telling the truth. There is probably a wolf or two out there that has already lied and either told us that someone was a student when they weren't...or didn't tell us exactly who he/she scanned.

Scan away monterey (okay, that cracked me up earlier). I'll take as many scans as it takes.

And, yeah, ntndeacon and I pretty much came to the same conclusion about the worth of having two wolf scans on Lathum right now, and that was before two additional people (at the point of this post) had come out showing him as a villager.

[st.cronin]

I don't think you understand what I was saying. You've been throwing around numbers about how many times a particular person has come up a wolf, but in aggregate that's a meaningless number. The value that the scans have is in telling us about the seers now (not the scanned), and the scanned only later, when we have some idea of the accuracy of our seers.

The only way for us to glean the accuracy is for people to turn up dead. Do you think the wolves are going to do us a favor and kill somebody with multiple scans on them?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Can you elaborate on that? What positive contributions has he brought?
I think the skepticism about nfg's grand plan was very well-founded, and it convinced me that I was probably better off working on my own as far as who I scanned. He at least appears to be thinking seriously about the best way for the villagers to play the game.

[nfg22]

The only way for us to glean the accuracy is for people to turn up dead. Do you think the wolves are going to do us a favor and kill somebody with multiple scans on them?

No...they will vote for me...

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, which is not to say that I think other people haven't been thinking seriously. nfg's idea was certainly a reasonable one to propose initially, even though I don't think the negative points about it were ever adequately addressed.

[Chief Rum]

Chief just to clear things up...you scanned Lathum last night and he came up as a wolf. But back on post 113 you said you scanned him in N0 and he came up a student. Am I reading that correctly?

Yes, although, of course, I didn't actually choose Lathum on N0. I have also been adamant about the worth of N0 scans (put them in a bucket and what do you have? a bucket), so I put absolutely no meaning (good or bad) into that N0 scan of Lathum or of anyone on anyone else's.

[nfg22]

Mr. W. that isnt a contribution. He only said I didnt have a plan that would work. He didnt propose one. We need to organize. Thats my plan.

[Passacaglia]

Was Lathum put up as one of the proposed scan-ees on day 1, or did he just happen to catch more scans than anyone else?

I think grey chose them, choosing the first four people to sign up for the game?

[Passacaglia]

I think the skepticism about nfg's grand plan was very well-founded, and it convinced me that I was probably better off working on my own as far as who I scanned. He at least appears to be thinking seriously about the best way for the villagers to play the game.

Do you mean grey's plan?

[st.cronin]

I think grey chose them, choosing the first four people to sign up for the game?

I think this is correct. The groups were done alphabetical, and the scan targets were in order of sign up. Seemed a reasonable solution.

[Passacaglia]

Yes, although, of course, I didn't actually choose Lathum on N0. I have also been adamant about the worth of N0 scans (put them in a bucket and what do you have? a bucket), so I put absolutely no meaning (good or bad) into that N0 scan of Lathum or of anyone on anyone else's.


Chief, I already answered that like two minutes after he asked it! I got your back, dude. Uh, just don't worry about how my vote was on you most of the day...I got your back. Yeah. :)

[Dr. Sak]

Yes, although, of course, I didn't actually choose Lathum on N0. I have also been adamant about the worth of N0 scans (put them in a bucket and what do you have? a bucket), so I put absolutely no meaning (good or bad) into that N0 scan of Lathum or of anyone on anyone else's.

I wasn't implicating you on anything, I just wasn't sure if I was reading it right or you were just clowning with me.

[Chief Rum]

I am now going to bow out of this game. I learned after the first one there is no point.

Once I return villager tonight look at DC and nfg22 as well as Render, NTN and ChiefRum.

I hope you're just being overly whiny and dramatic here. It would take more than three wolf scans for me to vote for you in a game like this. Thought you had more fight in you than this.

[Chief Rum]

I meant I am not going to sink a ton of time and energy in my defense. Last incarnation of this game 2 people scanned me wolf the same night and I got lynched and I was a villager that game as well.

You know as well as I do what happens when mob mentality takes over. 3 people have claimed to have scanned me as a wolf, my odds of succesfully defending myself eventhough there is convincing evidence is slim to none. People are going to need an excuse to lynch someone.

Two people also scanned you as a villager. Man, it's like you're Tampa Devil Ray in May.

[Dr. Sak]

Chief, Lathum said that almost 11 hours ago. If you keep reading you will notice that he didn't bow out.

[Chief Rum]

Everyone has some ability in this game and to be honest, I think a lot of these scans today are coming up wolf and statistically are balancing out the day 0 scans that peth sent out.

Bull. I don't know how the final numbers will come out when I catch up, but as of this post, it was 8 villager votes and 6 wolf votes. That's pretty close to what you would expect in a game where average accuracy is 50% and 25% of the field are wolves.

The N0 scans have nothing to do with today's scans. And unless you believe we rolled the lottery with the N0 scans, there was funny business going on that night. All scans came up villager--you have any idea how improbable that is?

[Barkeep49]

I hope you're just being overly whiny and dramatic here. It would take more than three wolf scans for me to vote for you in a game like this. Thought you had more fight in you than this.
And yet for the better part of the day the whine worked. Just saying...

[Chief Rum]

Chief, Lathum said that almost 11 hours ago. If you keep reading you will notice that he didn't bow out.

Actually my response has nothing to do with his intent to bow out. It was with his crappy attitude. But thanks for letting me know.

[Chief Rum]

I wasn't implicating you on anything, I just wasn't sure if I was reading it right or you were just clowning with me.

lol, nope, no clowning. It just worked out with GRF's plan that I was to scan the same person I already had. Even if I accepted the N0 scans as legit, it is entirely likely to have those split scans by the same person of the same person.

[Dr. Sak]

The N0 scans have nothing to do with today's scans. And unless you believe we rolled the lottery with the N0 scans, there was funny business going on that night. All scans came up villager--you have any idea how improbable that is?

You are making one assumption that I am not sure we can make...we cannot be entirely sure that people were telling the truth with their N0 scans.

[mauchow]

Are we tied or does Lathum have one less vote than nfg?

Earlier I voted for nfg on a whim and now it'll look stupid if I vote for Lathum but it actually makes a little bit more sense to vote for him than nfg at this point. I'd like to stay out of this one because I don't really know about these two, but I think I'll go ahead and put a vote on Lathum.

unvote no lynch
vote lathum

[Chief Rum]

no way.

Agreed. path wouldn't do something that obvious.

[st.cronin]

I think its tied now.

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)
Lathum - 7 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882), RendeR (887), mauboy1 (926)
No Lynch - 2 - The Jackal (736), SnDvls (762)
Passacaglia - 1 - ntndeacon(738)
Dodgerchick - 1 - jeheinz72 (764)

No vote: Chief Rum, Mr. Wednesday

[nfg22]

Wasnt I the one who also promoted throwing those scans out, even though they help the wolves? Didn't I also help with some minor statistics at the beggining? The one thing I did wrong, was sa the words "even though". Because of those two words, I am not ahead of Lathum who could help us the most and looks just as suspicious as me. Basically someone show me what I did.

[Barkeep49]

Are we tied or does Lathum have one less vote than nfg?

Earlier I voted for nfg on a whim and now it'll look stupid if I vote for Lathum but it actually makes a little bit more sense to vote for him than nfg at this point. I'd like to stay out of this one because I don't really know about these two, but I think I'll go ahead and put a vote on Lathum.

unvote no lynch
vote lathum
I don't follow. I don't think changing one's mind is stupid. It's just that I'm not sure what has changed your mind.

[Dr. Sak]

When Lathum gets lynched and comes up clean...there are going to be a lot of people with a lot explaining to do.

[Barkeep49]

Wasnt I the one who also promoted throwing those scans out, even though they help the wolves? Didn't I also help with some minor statistics at the beggining? The one thing I did wrong, was sa the words "even though". Because of those two words, I am not ahead of Lathum who could help us the most and looks just as suspicious as me. Basically someone show me what I did.
The even though woman is voting for the other person. Don't get too hung up on those words having doomed you.

[Barkeep49]

When Lathum gets lynched and comes up clean...there are going to be a lot of people with a lot explaining to do.
Really? Why?

[Chief Rum]

Im not sold on NFG22 he seems like a n00b who is just playing poorly.... but thats just me. someone has to go....

Perhaps this has been illustrated further along, but this doesn't make sense to me at this point. I think nfg22 has been playing pretty well and been helpful. When I was putting up numbers and suggestions Sunday night, he was the one who I was bouncing them off of, and his POV seemed entirely reasonable. I didn't read anything yesterday (or thus far today) that makes me think otherwise.

[Chief Rum]

I trust my scan that nfg22 is a wolf, but maybe more info will come out.

You shouldn't. I certainly don't trust my scan.

There is only one group that should trust their "scans" at this point, and that's wolves because they already know who the wolves are (path's "generally" aside).

[Barkeep49]

Perhaps this has been illustrated further along, but this doesn't make sense to me at this point. I think nfg22 has been playing pretty well and been helpful. When I was putting up numbers and suggestions Sunday night, he was the one who I was bouncing them off of, and his POV seemed entirely reasonable. I didn't read anything yesterday (or thus far today) that makes me think otherwise.
I would second this. I don't think nfg played like a newbie at all. I think he played in a way I'm not going to completely understand (as I think he was very much trying to draw attention to himself and I'm still not sure why) but I think he presented intelligence and reason behind the moves he made.

[Dr. Sak]

Really? Why?

I am keeping an eye on these late voters....the swing ones that will make the outcome.

[Chief Rum]

there has to be more then that out there still

No, he was right. There had been 14 scans announced, GRF is dead and mauboy1 and jeheinz were not able to participate in N1 scans. That's 17 of 21 original players, leaving 4 (the above four) unanswered for.

[saldana]

1+2) This is not incorrect? you mean I am correct? Trying to make me look worse by using a double negative?

3+4) He implicated me and dodgerchick...the reason why dodgerchick is implicated is because she DEFENDED me. If she defended me then that means I had to of already been accused. Second, those two words were brought up by Lathum *cough* wolf *cough*.

Saldana...and to a lesser extent claph. You will be looked at as a wolf when you kill me because I cleared both of you...and then you turn your back on me....if I were a wolf. I would have picked a non-wolf and scanned them as a wolf.

i am not trying to do anything except point out that 2 of your 4 points were wrong

i said you were not incorrect because that is the accurate description of your points...if you would prefer to say they are correct, thats fine.

as far as your counter to 3 and 4, you are changin your story...you said lathum told us to vote for you...now you have not only been proven wrong, but you are avoiding the fact that you have been proven wrong by creating a different story.

and if those two words hadnt been brought up by lathum, they would have been brought up by me..if you notice, i was right there with him the entire time last night in questioning you and DC

as far as your "if i were a wolf, i would have picked a villager and given the wrong scan information as a means of gaining trust", are you nuts...how in the blue hell would that have gained you trust...that may actually be the worst counter argument i have ever seen.

[st.cronin]

When Lathum gets lynched and comes up clean...there are going to be a lot of people with a lot explaining to do.

Are you saying the argument for lynching Lathum doesn't make any sense? Because I think its quite compelling. If he comes up villager, we at least have a lot more data as to seer capability.

On the other hand, if nfg gets lynched and comes up clean, then I guess I agree with you. The case for him seems quite weak, especially when compared to the other choices.

[Chief Rum]

I forgot about MAu and Jheinze.

Oh, okay, ignore above. :p

[nfg22]

The even though woman is voting for the other person. Don't get too hung up on those words having doomed you.


BK...I dont know who the "even though" woman is, I assume you mean DC.

The situation with "even though" is that I said " I am down with that plan, even though I will be on the list"

Lathum then said I was a wolf because I didn't want to be on the list. Yet I didnt want to be on the list because of how inaccurate these scans are.

[claphamsa]

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?gotta say something....

[Mr. Wednesday]

How many people have looked at nfg so far?

[st.cronin]

Heck, I think even Lathum would concede that lynching Lathum makes sense.

[Dr. Sak]

Are you saying the argument for lynching Lathum doesn't make any sense? Because I think its quite compelling. If he comes up villager, we at least have a lot more data as to seer capability.

We might have more data, but it will be at the expense of another villager. But I guess if you are a wolf, you wouldn't care about this.

[Barkeep49]

We might have more data, but it will be at the expense of another villager. But I guess if you are a wolf, you wouldn't care about this.
So you're THAT convinced that one of Lathum or bsak is a wolf? Cause if both are wolves or neither are wolves lynching Lathum gives us the most and best information. Now if one but not the other is a wolf, I'd agree we should lynch the wolf over the non-wolf. But otherwise we're better off with more information rather than less.

[Mr. Wednesday]

We need information, and it will inevitably come at the expense of villagers.

[st.cronin]

We might have more data, but it will be at the expense of another villager. But I guess if you are a wolf, you wouldn't care about this.

So, it seems like you think its much more likely that nfg is a wolf than Lathum. Please explain.

[nfg22]

Heck, I think even Lathum would concede that lynching Lathum makes sense.

Lol...my bias aside...This is funny

[Dr. Sak]

So you're THAT convinced that one of Lathum or bsak is a wolf? Cause if both are wolves or neither are wolves lynching Lathum gives us the most and best information. Now if one but not the other is a wolf, I'd agree we should lynch the wolf over the non-wolf. But otherwise we're better off with more information rather than less.

I am not a wolf...and I feel fairly certain that Lathum is not a wolf.

[st.cronin]

bsak, I believe Barkeep meant to type nfg instead of bsak... otherwise I don't understand what he's saying at all.

[Chief Rum]

I think my point about not being able to coordinate scans with this many people is being proven convicingly :)

Technically, people weren't even understanding GRF's plan. I think if they had, it would have come much closer to being done correctly. He should have had the four people to be scanned in the same post as the groups.

Also, your plan and the other one tossed out (I believe there was another one) muddied the waters as well. So I would hardly call your "point" correct so much as a slef-fulfilling prophecy, since you yourself at least partly engineered it to not succeed.

Not saying you did that maliciously mind you, just pointing that out.

[Dr. Sak]

bsak, I believe Barkeep meant to type nfg instead of bsak... otherwise I don't understand what he's saying at all.

He was...and i knew that...i just wanted to mess with him :)

[Chief Rum]

(_X_)

Those are DDs easily!

[nfg22]

do these feelings carry over to the other forum? This is a first time experience...I didnt think I would care this much...

[st.cronin]

ok, well bsak if you think its more likely that nfg is a wolf than Lathum you need to make that case. My mind is not entirely closed, in fact I'd rather vot for somebody else than Lathum. But I think the arguments against nfg so far are incredibly weak, and what's worse a lynch of him won't tell us anything.

[Chief Rum]

To summarize my somewhat meandering point above:
We have two options:
1. Ignore the scan info, play a traditional game of WW based on intuition, post analysis, and voting analysis
2. Try to make sense of the scans. Find out the people who are above average in accuracy (good because we can vote with them), below average in accuracy (good because we do the opposite), and in the middle in accuracy (information we have to ignore).

I'm trying to make 2 a reality, but think there is nothing wrong with playing via style 1.

I tend to agree with this, although I am still trying to keep track of the scan info as much as possible.

[RendeR]

Vote Count please!

[st.cronin]

7-7 nfg to Lathum.

[RendeR]

EEExcellent! *steeples fingers and chuckles dryly*

[Mr. Wednesday]

Does anyone have a summary of the scanning history involving the two folks on the block right now?

[Barkeep49]

do these feelings carry over to the other forum? This is a first time experience...I didnt think I would care this much...
What other forum?

[Chief Rum]

I think we can learn a little bit from the scans we have, and we might as well parse this now, just in case everyone scans the same people again, and it gets lost in the shuffle: Neither CR nor Mr. Wednesday are the Teacher's Pet, nor are they the fool. In fact, they're more likely than any of us to have a 50% ratio, which means they're worthless as seers. I'm not going to vote for Mr. Wednesday, since he scanned me.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

So you're putting value into the N0 scans?

[Barkeep49]

bsak, I believe Barkeep meant to type nfg instead of bsak... otherwise I don't understand what he's saying at all.
I did mean nfg.

[Pumpy Tudors]

do these feelings carry over to the other forum? This is a first time experience...I didnt think I would care this much...
God, I hope not. In character, I'm a student who's trying to save my classmates. Out of character, I'm just trying to have fun. I don't think I'm going to hold anything that happens against anyone here. It's just a game, right? There'll be more games, won't they?

[nfg22]

What other forum?

The off topic

[Chief Rum]

I'm not saying it was random, but I can't imagine that whatever game mechanic was working N0 would allow the teacher's pet to scan a wolf, yet have him come up as villager. That's insane.

Unless the whole point of the N0 scans was that they're worthless and intentionally misleading. And there's a lot of statistical evidence for that.

path could also get around this by having the Fool scan a wolf, and the Teacher's Pet a student.

[Barkeep49]

I am not a wolf...and I feel fairly certain that Lathum is not a wolf.
You didn't really answer my question. There are 4 possibilities tonight:

1. Nfg and Lathum are both villagers
2. Nfg is a wolf, Lathum is a villager
3. Nfg is a villager, Lathum is a wolf
4. Nfg and Lathum are both wolves

Now bsak you clearly feel 2 is more likely than 3. But do you really think that 2 is so much more likely than 1?

[saldana]

barkeep..i am addressing this to you because i have grown to recognize you as a typically logical player...why is it you are ignoring the fact that NFG is blatanly fabricating his reasons against lathum...does creating a fictional case against someone typically indicate someone is a villager in your experience.

i am becoming increasingly frustrated that no one wants to acknowledge that NFG is flat out lying, then changing his lies when he is caught on them...thats not what villagers do.

[Chief Rum]

The non-random mechanism is likely affecting who we scan, not the outcome of the scan.

Did anyone else say...huh?

[Barkeep49]

The off topic
People do get passionate about this but I think for most of us we separate personal feelings from the game. I've gone pretty hard against Lathum today but I know he won't hold it against me outside of the game and we'll continue to be friendly.

[Barkeep49]

barkeep..i am addressing this to you because i have grown to recognize you as a typically logical player...why is it you are ignoring the fact that NFG is blatanly fabricating his reasons against lathum...does creating a fictional case against someone typically indicate someone is a villager in your experience.

i am becoming increasingly frustrated that no one wants to acknowledge that NFG is flat out lying, then changing his lies when he is caught on them...thats not what villagers do.
I'm open to persuasion. Review for me the case against nfg as I've not really understood it and thus have somewhat dismissed it, perhaps unfairly.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Does anyone have a summary of the scanning history involving the two folks on the block right now?
?

[saldana]

God, I hope not. In character, I'm a student who's trying to save my classmates. Out of character, I'm just trying to have fun. I don't think I'm going to hold anything that happens against anyone here. It's just a game, right? There'll be more games, won't they?

there have been situations where WW has spilled back into OT, but they were alot more intense than anything here, and built up over dozens and dozens of games with alot more slurring and personal attacking than we are seeing here.

[Barkeep49]

there have been situations where WW has spilled back into OT, but they were alot more intense than anything here, and built up over dozens and dozens of games with alot more slurring and personal attacking than we are seeing here.
Indeed. And we've been fortunate that this hasn't been an issue recently.

[st.cronin]

barkeep..i am addressing this to you because i have grown to recognize you as a typically logical player...why is it you are ignoring the fact that NFG is blatanly fabricating his reasons against lathum...does creating a fictional case against someone typically indicate someone is a villager in your experience.

i am becoming increasingly frustrated that no one wants to acknowledge that NFG is flat out lying, then changing his lies when he is caught on them...thats not what villagers do.

This seems hyperbolic to me as well. Lathum was casting aspersions on nfg as early as yesterday - what nfg has said has not struck me as a distortion at all.

[claphamsa]

some people.... seem to get kinda excited... but i dont go to OT so i dont know :)

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, now I look at the rules and it does say that the wolves know each other. I thought that was a topic of conversation throughout yesterday, did I dream that?

You didn't dream this. The rules do state that.

Making path's "generally, yes" response to the question of whether the wolves know each other to be a bit of an enigma (resulting in said discussion).

[Chief Rum]

Scans as of Post #707 (excluding N0 scans)

Passacaglia (1 V / 1 W)-- Mr. Wednesday (W; 506), st.cronin (W; 707)
Lathum (2 V / 3 W)-- Chief Rum (W; 508), ntndeacon (W; 510), Barkeep49 (V; 515), claphamsa (V; 519), Render (W; 534)
claphamsa (1 V / 1 W)-- nfg22 (V; 512), MikeVic (W; 605)
Barkeep49 (4 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 513), saldana (V; 516), Dodgerchick (V; 526); SnDvls (V; 578)
Chief Rum (2 V / 0 W)-- bsak16 (V; 520), oliegirl (V; 631)
nfg22 (0 V / 1 W)-- Pumpy Tudors (W; 523)
Dodgerchick (0 V / 1 W)-- Lathum (W; 524)
Render (1 V / 0 W)-- Passacaglia (V; 528)

I'm sure someone has done this already, but here's my scan list, similar to yesterday, of today's scans.

Total scans 18 == (11 V / 7 W)

[Barkeep49]

I'm a little nervous about the unknown tiebreaker.

[MikeVic]

I don't know which to stick to. Clap is still there for me because of my scan result, but between Lathum and NFG I really don't know anymore.

I'll be scanning the one that isn't lynched.

[saldana]

I'm open to persuasion. Review for me the case against nfg as I've not really understood it and thus have somewhat dismissed it, perhaps unfairly.

Can I just say it now? You are all being duped and I will give four answers why.

1) Reasonably we want to figure out who is reliable. Lathum has the most votes, he provides the best opportunity.

2)We also want to vote for someone that has a few wolf votes. Yes, I know they arent reliable but if they are we just let one get away. Lathum has three wolf votes against him.

3) Not only am I not a wolf but I offered everyone to scan me. Lathum...umm...didnt.

4) Not only are you all voting against me, but it is because Lathum(the lead candidate) told you all to. Does anyone think he is biased?

I realize I am biased, but I also am right. Now if you vote for me, just promise you will kill him tommorow when you find my true identity pls thx.

1)this is not incorrect

2)this is not incorrect

3)he certainly did...numerous times...he offered himself, and offered zero resistance when he was placed on the "scan list"....you on the other hand, showed regret at the possibility of being scanned

4)no he didnt...he wanted people to vote for dodgerchick...the only reason he is voting for you is because no one wanted to follow him and more people were picking you without his, or anyone elses, encouragement.

nice defense...next time actually try having your facts straight....you keep saying you arent a wolf, but half-truths like this are the staples of wolves trying to get themselves off the hook

1+2) This is not incorrect? you mean I am correct? Trying to make me look worse by using a double negative?

3+4) He implicated me and dodgerchick...the reason why dodgerchick is implicated is because she DEFENDED me. If she defended me then that means I had to of already been accused. Second, those two words were brought up by Lathum *cough* wolf *cough*.

Saldana...and to a lesser extent claph. You will be looked at as a wolf when you kill me because I cleared both of you...and then you turn your back on me....if I were a wolf. I would have picked a non-wolf and scanned them as a wolf.

i am not trying to do anything except point out that 2 of your 4 points were wrong

i said you were not incorrect because that is the accurate description of your points...if you would prefer to say they are correct, thats fine.

as far as your counter to 3 and 4, you are changin your story...you said lathum told us to vote for you...now you have not only been proven wrong, but you are avoiding the fact that you have been proven wrong by creating a different story.

and if those two words hadnt been brought up by lathum, they would have been brought up by me..if you notice, i was right there with him the entire time last night in questioning you and DC

as far as your "if i were a wolf, i would have picked a villager and given the wrong scan information as a means of gaining trust", are you nuts...how in the blue hell would that have gained you trust...that may actually be the worst counter argument i have ever seen.

here you go BK...these are all my points against him...if someone can give me a reason for nfg to blatantly lie, other than to save his own skin, i would love to hear it...IMO, shouting like roger clemens that you are innocent is fine, but making up things and then avoiding them by changing your story is textbook wolf to me.

[saldana]

This seems hyperbolic to me as well. Lathum was casting aspersions on nfg as early as yesterday - what nfg has said has not struck me as a distortion at all.

please see my above reposts...are we going to chalk it up to misrembering that his facts are completely wrong?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I probably should have voted earlier to avoid this predicament, but I find myself not caring overmuch for either of my options here. I don't think it's a good idea to lose Lathum, but we're going to get more out of lynching him than nfg.

VOTE Lathum

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I have to vote and finish catching up later. As of this vote, I have read up page 15 or so, and then I scanned this page. I see it is down to Lathum or nfg.

I said I wouldn't vote for Lathum today and I won't. But I didn't buy the suspicion on nfg2 early on, which I thought was rather trumped up, and I don't have time to read his "lies" or whatever now. Obviously, if they were obvious lies, more people would switch to him. Since it seems it's a judgment call, I'm not going to make that call on someone else's say so in a tie lynch vote situation.

And if people want to lynch me for not voting for someone in a tete-a-tete, go for it.

VOTE BARKEEP

Purely for the data points (which would normally go to Lathum, except for my promise not to do so).

[Barkeep49]

here you go BK...these are all my points against him...if someone can give me a reason for nfg to blatantly lie, other than to save his own skin, i would love to hear it...IMO, shouting like roger clemens that you are innocent is fine, but making up things and then avoiding them by changing your story is textbook wolf to me.
Frankly I got hung-up on points 1 & 2 for which I think bfg is correct (Lathum has the most scans and has a variety of scans so lynching him IS the most revealing). You're right that he falls apart on points 3 & 4. But I'm not sure it rises to the level of a lie. It is kinda shifty though...

[st.cronin]

8-7 Lathum over nfg.

[Barkeep49]

Okay, I have to vote and finish catching up later. As of this vote, I have read up page 15 or so, and then I scanned this page. I see it is down to Lathum or nfg.

I said I wouldn't vote for Lathum today and I won't. But I didn't buy the suspicion on nfg2 early on, which I thought was rather trumped up, and I don't have time to read his "lies" or whatever now. Obviously, if they were obvious lies, more people would switch to him. Since it seems it's a judgment call, I'm not going to make that call on someone else's say so in a tie lynch vote situation.

And if people want to lynch me for not voting for someone in a tete-a-tete, go for it.

VOTE BARKEEP

Purely for the data points (which would normally go to Lathum, except for my promise not to do so).
That is really weak. You're ducking a close vote and not even voting for some 3rd party you believe to be guilty. If I was on the block voting for me for data poitns would be useful. But throwing a random vote on me gets you zero data points and instead ducks this very close vote.

[Lathum]

If I was a wolf would I have come out this morning and said I scanned DC.

NO

I would have waited on my scan and put it on someone I could get lynched like Pass.

[Lathum]

nice of everyone to wait until I'm not around to defend myself then vote for me

[st.cronin]

Wow @ Chief Rum's vote.

[Lathum]

CR, can you at least tie things up and let the tiebreaker decide?

[saldana]

Okay, I have to vote and finish catching up later. As of this vote, I have read up page 15 or so, and then I scanned this page. I see it is down to Lathum or nfg.

I said I wouldn't vote for Lathum today and I won't. But I didn't buy the suspicion on nfg2 early on, which I thought was rather trumped up, and I don't have time to read his "lies" or whatever now. Obviously, if they were obvious lies, more people would switch to him. Since it seems it's a judgment call, I'm not going to make that call on someone else's say so in a tie lynch vote situation.

And if people want to lynch me for not voting for someone in a tete-a-tete, go for it.

VOTE BARKEEP

Purely for the data points (which would normally go to Lathum, except for my promise not to do so).

are you freaking kidding me...im sorry chief, but this is the most worthless vote i have ever seen in my life

[MikeVic]

Why Barkeep CR?

[Lathum]

Wow @ Chief Rum's vote.

maybe he is protecting NFG22?

[path12]

Anyone got a vote count? I'm still on page 18.....

[Barkeep49]

saldana: I think you present an interesting argument against nfg. By far the best I've seen today. If we weren't past deadline I'd have to give this further thought.

[saldana]

i mean seriously..you pick the guy with 4 villager scans instead of actually doing something that may help the village...nothing personal chief, i know you were at work, but that is unbelievable

[st.cronin]

I'm scanning Chief Rum tonight.