Official College Football Week 11 thread

[Matthean]

I still think too many undefeated teams will remain for it to matter. FSU and OSU alone have rather tame schedules to finish off.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Arm strength is there I think - he underthrew that early deep ball, but he's had plenty of zip on is passes. The problem like you said is accuracy, especially when he's on the run or feeling pressure.

This game has been an aberration. He's been accurate most of the season, and was deadly accurate when I saw him in person.

[MrBug708]

Brett McMurphy ✔ @McMurphyESPN

Stanford will now have 4 wins vs. Sagarin Top 20 teams. Bama, FSU, Baylor, Ohio State have 3 - combined

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Matthean

(looks around)

Yes.

You seem real quick to dismiss high-scoring teams. I've been on that side before when people were talking about Oregon's offense a couple years ago like it couldn't be stopped, but they're still really good offenses. A lot of their absurd PPG stats come from running faster plays so they get more possessions, but part of it is having higher points per possession. We saw Stanford execute a perfect game plan to counteract the first (literally averaging over 5 minutes per drive, which is equally absurd) while also getting a couple lucky breaks on the fumble bounces and Ikpre-Olomu's INT waved off on a borderline PI. When it comes to the second, even the best college and pro offenses of all time can roll snake eyes a few times in a row, and when you only get 8 possessions in a game that'll kill you.

Originally Posted by dawgfan

This game has been an aberration. He's been accurate most of the season, and was deadly accurate when I saw him in person.

I really haven't seen many other full games from him, just highlights and parts of a couple. I still think he's a good prospect, but there were a number of throwing mechanics breakdowns, bad footwork and poor pocket awareness tonight. Another guy who's still an unfinished product, and I'm not sure how much he'll learn if he comes back to Oregon for another year - they seem to get so much space that he's not really forced to make tight throws from the pocket under pressure - usually either the quick easy throws are there or he can get outside the pocket and get receivers open by quite a few yards due to his scrambling threat.

[Crapshoot]

Holy shit, what an ending, but that was pure fucking domination. Complete blast. I think Stanford has a case to go to #3 (ahead of Ohio St), but Bug is right - the difficulty of the PAC-12 is immense compared to that of the SEC, to say nothing of the cupcakes in the Big 10.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I really haven't seen many other full games from him, just highlights and parts of a couple. I still think he's a good prospect, but there were a number of throwing mechanics breakdowns, bad footwork and poor pocket awareness tonight. Another guy who's still an unfinished product, and I'm not sure how much he'll learn if he comes back to Oregon for another year - they seem to get so much space that he's not really forced to make tight throws from the pocket under pressure - usually either the quick easy throws are there or he can get outside the pocket and get receivers open by quite a few yards due to his scrambling threat.

I think you hit the nail on the head here. The talent is certainly there but the consistency is lacking. He will make an unbelievable throw and follow it up with one 10 feet over a WRs head. I think Kaepernick is a very good comparison with Mariota having a higher ceiling.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

College Football Stats - College FB Team Plays per Game on TeamRankings.com

Some teams play so fast now they are getting almost 1.5X more snaps per game than slower paced teams. Its almost like playing a football game of 90 minutes now instead of 60. Holding Oregon or Baylor under 30 would take one heck of a defensive effort.

It's been interesting the last 3 years since OC Chad Morris came to Clemson. He harps an only 3 stats, in order:
- Number of Offensive snaps/game
- "Balls in Jeopardy" (a self created stat inclusive of an appointed staff member whose sole job is to track this during a game AND for upcoming opponents comprised of fumbles, interceptions, fumbles recovered by own team, bobbled snaps and hand offs and tipped passes and dropped INTs)
- Rushing yards per game.

Morris has said repeatedly that 80 plays is the minimum acceptable number and references both the increased opportunities to score, but also the increased opportunity to show additional formations and "window dressing" both to open up later in game chances AND to put more on film for future opponents.

If I were playing any of these pace based offenses I would never snap the ball with more than 5 seconds on the clock, just to break their rythm.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

The good news for FSU is that Oregon is being dumped out of the national title picture.

The bad news for FSU is Baylor and Stanford are making claims for being IN the national picture.

Stanford with 1 loss is a long shot, I'd think.
Baylor is solidly in there.

This is where we need a playoff as based on resume Oregon's loss is "better" than Stanford's so plenty of computers will still rank Oregon ahead of Stanford...

Now if you want your head to explode imagine a world where a 1 loss Mizzou beats a no loss Bama in the SEC title game leaving a 1 loss SEC champ and a 1 loss Bama, both required by secret by laws wrote down in the bowels of history to get a BCS title game birth.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Brett McMurphy ✔ @McMurphyESPN

Stanford will now have 4 wins vs. Sagarin Top 20 teams. Bama, FSU, Baylor, Ohio State have 3 - combined

Stanford also lost to Utah. If they hadn't, I would say they deserve to be #1 right now. But they didn't. Based on yesterday, I would rank Baylor ahead of Stanford. Plus, the Sagarin had Stanford as #9 before last night's game. They will move up some, but they won't jump everyone in the computers.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Stanford also lost to Utah. If they hadn't, I would say they deserve to be #1 right now. But they didn't. Based on yesterday, I would rank Baylor ahead of Stanford. Plus, the Sagarin had Stanford as #9 before last night's game. They will move up some, but they won't jump everyone in the computers.

They were 5th in the computers coming in to last night with ranks of
6,5,5,4,9,9

It might be enough to pass tOSU, but I imagine Baylor will actually close the computer gap on them over the next several weeks as their SOS improves.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

The Pac12 is still the only conference that will a actively screw its best team out of a title game

Not sure what this means. Though I did enjoy watching Glasses Ref last night.

[mauchow]

Yeah, they'd be in if it were the 4 Team Playoff... but that's the supposed "beauty" of college football that people talked about. Where's the beauty in having an early season loss dictate that you will not get to play the NCG? There isn't.

There needs to be an 8 (or 16!) team playoff but for now I will be happy with 4 because its better than what they've got for this year. And this year would have been amazing to have a 4-team playoff. Can Obama make that happen?

[MizzouRah]

Ohio St. plays nobody.. so I can't see them being in any discussion.

FSU definitely should be thanking Stanford, Bama still plays a couple of good teams.. will be interesting for sure.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Brett McMurphy ✔ @McMurphyESPN

Stanford will now have 4 wins vs. Sagarin Top 20 teams. Bama, FSU, Baylor, Ohio State have 3 - combined

By season's end (top 25 since McMurphy conviently wanted to leave 2 Big 12 teams off that were 21 and 23)...

Alabama: A&M, LSU, Auburn, Mizzou/USC (SEC title game)
FSU: Clemson
Baylor: Oklahoma,OK State, Texas
OSU: Wisconsin, Mich State (Big 10 title game)

Standford's schedule was just front loaded. It will all work itself out like it does every year. (Plus Texas Tech, K-State, Ole Miss, and Miami should move into the top 25 by the end of the season)

[CU Tiger]

FSU has Miami and still has Florida left...Miami will certainly be top 25, no?

[Butter]

Interesting that Ohio State and Baylor have a common opponent this year... Buffalo, whose only 2 losses were to OSU and BU.

OSU beat them 40-20, while Baylor won 70-13.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

FSU has Miami and still has Florida left...Miami will certainly be top 25, no?

Assuming Miami goes to the ACC Champ. Game from that side, which is far from certain. But they did already play them once, and doubt they will fall all the way out of the Top 25.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

(Plus Texas Tech, K-State, Ole Miss, and Miami should move into the top 25 by the end of the season)

Which top 25 are we talking about?
BCS? Sagarin? Sagarin Pure ELO (which is what the BCS uses)?

(I single out Sagarin since that's what McMurphy used for his quote)

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Which top 25 are we talking about?
BCS? Sagarin? Sagarin Pure ELO (which is what the BCS uses)?

(I single out Sagarin since that's what McMurphy used for his quote)

Sagarin. I was going off the original quote. They are 26, 28, 29, 30 and there are some teams that are going to fall out.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

Sagarin. I was going off the original quote. They are 26, 28, 29, 30 and there are some teams that are going to fall out.

Fair enough, it just kinda hit me how variable a phrase like "Top 25" could actually be & sorta picked out that post to highlight the point.

Sagarin Pure ELO has Northern Illinois at #4.
Sagarin (vanilla) has Northern Illinois at #46.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Yeah, they'd be in if it were the 4 Team Playoff... but that's the supposed "beauty" of college football that people talked about. Where's the beauty in having an early season loss dictate that you will not get to play the NCG? There isn't.

There needs to be an 8 (or 16!) team playoff but for now I will be happy with 4 because its better than what they've got for this year. And this year would have been amazing to have a 4-team playoff. Can Obama make that happen?

The beauty is you don't lose to Utah or you don't make the national title game in front of teams that don't lose any games.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Fair enough, it just kinda hit me how variable a phrase like "Top 25" could actually be & sorta picked out that post to highlight the point.

Sagarin Pure ELO has Northern Illinois at #4.
Sagarin (vanilla) has Northern Illinois at #46.

Yeah my point was Alabama will either lose or be legit, OH State will actually be somewhat legit, Baylor will be legit, and FSU is about the only unbeaten that would be questionable but the way they blew out Clemson and if they beat Miami twice they seem legit also. Stanford just happened to play its tougher games earlier and lost to Utah.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by panerd

Yeah my point was Alabama will either lose or be legit, OH State will actually be somewhat legit, Baylor will be legit, and FSU is about the only unbeaten that would be questionable but the way they blew out Clemson and if they beat Miami twice they seem legit also. Stanford just happened to play its tougher games earlier and lost to Utah.

And I guess I am questioning why OHST is legit and FSU is questionable?

FSU has played 3 Top 25 teams (at the time they played) and crushed them all. (Maryland, Clemson, Miami)

Ive only seen 4 national title winners play in person in my life. ( well allegedly 5 but I dont remember 80 UGa or 81 Clemson)

93 FSU
99 FSU
Cam's Auburn
11 Bama..

And I belive this years FSU team could play with any of the 4, and dominate the middle 2.

I honestly think if FSU had a better strategic mastermind than Jimbo they would have Saban this year. Unfortunately I think Saban would eb the difference maker

[panerd]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

And I guess I am questioning why OHST is legit and FSU is questionable?

FSU has played 3 Top 25 teams (at the time they played) and crushed them all. (Maryland, Clemson, Miami)

Ive only seen 4 national title winners play in person in my life. ( well allegedly 5 but I dont remember 80 UGa or 81 Clemson)

93 FSU
99 FSU
Cam's Auburn
11 Bama..

And I belive this years FSU team could play with any of the 4, and dominate the middle 2.

I honestly think if FSU had a better strategic mastermind than Jimbo they would have Saban this year. Unfortunately I think Saban would eb the difference maker

Using Sagarin only like the original tweet. I would go in this order right now... Bama/FSU/Baylor/OSU but that is from watching the games and with some obvious bias. I was just saying using the reasoning of a computer ranking they still are all legit except for FSU unless Miami climbs back up there.

[CU Tiger]

gotcha..sorry reading comprehension fail

[panerd]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

gotcha..sorry reading comprehension fail

No worries. I wasn't exactly clear in my original post. I do think that a lot of people are blowing off Ohio State these last two years implying going undefeated for 2 seasons in the Big Ten is nothing. It's not like Northern Illinois who plays two of the middle of the road teams in the Big Ten and is praised. They have actually beat some legit teams and haven't had a hiccup. I have been making some money ATS with them this year.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I really haven't seen many other full games from him, just highlights and parts of a couple. I still think he's a good prospect, but there were a number of throwing mechanics breakdowns, bad footwork and poor pocket awareness tonight. Another guy who's still an unfinished product, and I'm not sure how much he'll learn if he comes back to Oregon for another year - they seem to get so much space that he's not really forced to make tight throws from the pocket under pressure - usually either the quick easy throws are there or he can get outside the pocket and get receivers open by quite a few yards due to his scrambling threat.

Keep in mind he was playing on a sprained MCL last night too. He certainly needs some polish, but the physical tools are definitely there.

[cartman]

[tarcone]

I just was at ESPN and was looking at the B1G football page. They had tickets available for the Iowa/Purdue game.
Prices for tickets were starting at 95 CENTS. Yes, thats right. Less then a buck.
Wow. Im tempted to drive to W. Lafayette tomorrow.

[Kodos]

Purdue football commands the big bucks!

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I just was at ESPN and was looking at the B1G football page. They had tickets available for the Iowa/Purdue game.
Prices for tickets were starting at 95 CENTS. Yes, thats right. Less then a buck.
Wow. Im tempted to drive to W. Lafayette tomorrow.

Woah, don't drive all the way out there to get ripped off by scalpers. Those tickets aren't worth a penny over 30¢.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

You seem real quick to dismiss high-scoring teams.

It's easy to dismiss them when they keep not winning titles. Oregon's recent track record against top tier physical teams is...not good. If everything holds, 'Bama vs. FSU will keep the trend of physical teams winning the titles while so many people drool over spread offenses.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Matthean

It's easy to dismiss them when they keep not winning titles. Oregon's recent track record against top tier physical teams is...not good. If everything holds, 'Bama vs. FSU will keep the trend of physical teams winning the titles while so many people drool over spread offenses.

Auburn won it in 2010. FSU is more of a spread team these days with one of the best freshmen QBs Ive ever seen.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Matthean

It's easy to dismiss them when they keep not winning titles. Oregon's recent track record against top tier physical teams is...not good. If everything holds, 'Bama vs. FSU will keep the trend of physical teams winning the titles while so many people drool over spread offenses.

Not every "spread" team is all finesse - it's not just U Houston with Ware/Klingler or Mike Leach at Texas Tech anymore. Was Auburn a spread team when they won the national title? Are Urban Meyer's teams? If anything, the only coaches that have a decent track record against Saban/Alabama are spread teams (Urban Meyer, Gus Malzahn, Kevin Sumlin). A&M beat Alabama by jumping all over them in the 1st quarter last year, Alabama thought they had a good response to it, Saban/Smart spent all offseason tweaking it and focusing on it, and they gave up 600 yards and 42 points - that's not a fad or a fluke. (Yes, a lot of it was due to having 2 elite players in Manziel and Mike Evans, but that's what spread offenses are designed to do - get your best athletes matched up 1v1 in space, or have defenses spend so much extra focus on them that you have a numbers advantage somewhere else.)

Oregon is a little too much east-west for my tastes, which is why I think disciplined, physical defenses that set the edge and keep contain can slow them down a lot. It's easier said than done because they have some of the best athletes in the country running them, but if you can contain those stretch runs it can really eliminate the big plays from Oregon's offense. The reason why I love the Baylor attack is that it accentuates the vertical threat with its route tree (and the option to go deep almost every Baylor receiver has every play), while basically eliminating any possible deception or disguise by the defense with its incredibly wide WR splits. Literally every play as a defense you're forced into 2 on 2 coverage with no safety help on at least one side of the field or you're outnumbered at the point of attack and they'll use a power running game. They're not spreading teams out like the Run N' Shoot to beat them with quick slants and WR screens, they're a power running team (49 carries per game - for 300 yards) that uses passes (31 per game) as a big play threat that can rip off chunk plays when the defense cheats up. Going into last night Texas A&M had 32 plays >30 yards in 9 games (3.6 per game), Oregon had 35 in 8 (4.4) and Baylor had 43 in only 7 (6.1 per game).

And finally, there's no question Alabama and Florida State are the two best teams right now, but its not because they have some special formula for "physical toughness" - it's because they're loaded with 4* and 5* athletes, especially on the O-line and defense. Maybe you can attack Oregon a little for valuing speed too much at the expense of strength, but you can't really blame 95% of the country. Yeah, you're unlikely to beat Alabama using a spread offense, but you're sure as hell not going to do it by lining up and trying to run down their throat unless your name is LSU or Florida. I think Baylor does have one of the two best offenses in the country (with Texas A&M), but just like A&M (or, really, Oregon last night considering Stanford was 15-22 on 3rd down) I think they would lose to those teams because their defense would be exposed just a little too much. I don't write off Briles chances of ever winning a national title at Baylor since he's really upped their recruiting since RGIII's Heisman, but I'd be real intrigued to see what he could do with UT's resources (and he'd have to be on the shirt list to replace Mack Brown, especially if he can run up some points in their matchup later this month.)

[Buccaneer]

My son, who hasn't missed ESPN's GameDay in years - getting up really early every Saturday morning - wanted me to watch the segment about the guy visiting every Division 1 college football stadium on gameday (he has 2 to go), which is something up my alley. Anyway, the reporter asked the question to the viewers if you could only visit one stadium on gameday, what would it be? I asked my son what it would be and he gave me that look like it was a dumb question. His answer? Clemson, of course. Would not have guessed that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

My son, who hasn't missed ESPN's GameDay in years - getting up really early every Saturday morning - wanted me to watch the segment about the guy visiting every Division 1 college football stadium on gameday (he has 2 to go), which is something up my alley. Anyway, the reporter asked the question to the viewers if you could only visit one stadium on gameday, what would it be? I asked my son what it would be and he gave me that look like it was a dumb question. His answer? Clemson, of course. Would not have guessed that.

I think I would have to say LSU. I have heard the overall experience is awesome. We toyed with going a few years beck when UW played there but didn't do it.

BYU would be a close second, the scenery looks awesome.

I highly recommend a game at Husky Stadium for anyone inclined.

[CU Tiger]

i approve of that response, good boy

[MrBug708]

Florida State hasn't had a 1K rusher since 1996? That's pretty crazy..

[SirFozzie]

Stat of the Now:

Wake Forest has completed 8 of 10 passes against Florida State..

2 to Wake Forest Receivers... 6 to FSU Defenders.

That's mind boggling.

[mauchow]

WI and BYU time!

[Eaglesfan27]

USC looking really good in jumping to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter.

[MrBug708]

I think USC has better depth than Cal does on D. The players really do enjoy playing for Ogre. Perhaps he should get a strong look at the HC spot?

[Matthean]

Michigan working on a full blown meltdown. Their OL disintegrated against one of the worst defenses in the country, and Michigan has done little on defense. 10-0 Nebraska. You know it is bad when the fans are already booing on your second play on offense.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I think USC has better depth than Cal does on D. The players really do enjoy playing for Ogre. Perhaps he should get a strong look at the HC spot?

If SC has better depth with the 20 or so healthy scholarship players available on D, that's pretty damning.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If SC has better depth with the 20 or so healthy scholarship players available on D, that's pretty damning.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If SC has better depth with the 20 or so healthy scholarship players available on D, that's pretty damning.

At one point, they had two scholarship players available in the seconary

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If SC has better depth with the 20 or so healthy scholarship players available on D, that's pretty damning.

I am not sure what their situation is like now, but when Cal played UCLA last month, they were missing something like 8 of their original projected 11 D starters and most of those were out longterm.

So it's actually conceivable their depth on D rivals USC's depth.

[cuervo72]

Maryland and Syracuse are both ass.

[Matthean]

I don't get why Gardner eats the ball and takes the sack in pretty much every single situation even when outside of the pocket.

[mauchow]

Huge score for Wisconsin going into halftime. 17-3.