Little too much randomness for me

[youALREADYknow]

Quote: Originally Posted by doctorhay53

I think EVERYTHING should be random and there should NEVER be anything set in stone. I just think the probabilities need SERIOUS work in many cases.

By set in stone I mean that certain situations call for a 100% probability. I agree that everything should have a probability.

If a player has broken every NCAA season and career record for their position by their Junior season and has won Natl Championships and the Heisman, then they aren't coming back to school.

If a player is in the Heisman race or wins individual awards and hasn't been replaced on the depth chart of their school, then they aren't going to transfer for no reason.

These are situations where the probability of the "dice roll" should sway to 100%. If you don't like 100%, then let's use 99.9999%.

[trayeight]

Quote: Originally Posted by thelasthurtknee

there are alot of te's but not enough(often times there wont even be a 5 star) and alot of them sign to the same school and get cut.

I signed the #1 TE in the country last year, who just happened to be from Coral Gables. He was garbage! He came in at 73 OVR with 79 SPD as a balanced TE. And he was the only 5 star TE that year.

[rudyjuly2]

Quote: Originally Posted by youALREADYknow

By set in stone I mean that certain situations call for a 100% probability. I agree that everything should have a probability. If a player has broken every NCAA season and career record for their position by their Junior season and has won Natl Championships and the Heisman, then they aren't coming back to school. If a player is in the Heisman race or wins individual awards and hasn't been replaced on the depth chart of their school, then they aren't going to transfer for no reason. These are situations where the probability of the "dice roll" should sway to 100%. If you don't like 100%, then let's use 99.9999%.

You can never say 100%. Matt Leinart returned for his senior year despite the fact he would have been a Top 10 pick and had won the Heisman and a National Championship.

Colt McCoy announced (before the loss to Tech) that he would be staying in school for his senior year and he already owns the school passing yards record and still has a shot at the Heisman and NC.

[youALREADYknow]

Quote: Originally Posted by rudyjuly2

You can never say 100%. Matt Leinart returned for his senior year despite the fact he would have been a Top 10 pick and had won the Heisman and a National Championship. Colt McCoy announced (before the loss to Tech) that he would be staying in school for his senior year and he already owns the school passing yards record and still has a shot at the Heisman and NC.

It's just a matter of factoring in accomplishments.

Leinart - Heisman, Natl Champ, High OVR
McCoy - School Pass Yd Record, High OVR
Keyser's player - NCAA records, High OVR, Natl Champ, Numerous Awards

Obviously the more absurd a player's resume becomes, the probability moves closer to 100% without ever touching the actual 100% mark. Like I said... 99.9999%.

[Keyser Soze]

Quote: Originally Posted by youALREADYknow

It's just a matter of factoring in accomplishments. Leinart - Heisman, Natl Champ, High OVR McCoy - School Pass Yd Record, High OVR Keyser's player - NCAA records, High OVR, Natl Champ, Numerous Awards Obviously the more absurd a player's resume becomes, the probability moves closer to 100% without ever touching the actual 100% mark. Like I said... 99.9999%.

yeah, i will provide his resume tonight... its pretty rediculous. he has over 20K in passing yards and like 240ish TD passes....

[thelasthurtknee]

Quote: Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

yeah, i will provide his resume tonight... its pretty rediculous. he has over 20K in passing yards and like 240ish TD passes....

would the guy of gone pro in real life maybe. remember white from oklahoma. all everything and stayer for senior year and couldnt play pro to save his life. you could of simmed it 10 more times and he could of gone pro everytime. maybe you just got lucky. they cant make it set in stone that if you break milestones you go to the pros automatically. guys will have the the programmers code broken down for this in no time and then we will all know what not to do so we can keep players. there has to be randomness and the programmers know that so we dont manipulate the ai.

[youALREADYknow]

Quote: Originally Posted by thelasthurtknee

would the guy of gone pro in real life maybe. remember white from oklahoma. all everything and stayer for senior year and couldnt play pro to save his life. you could of simmed it 10 more times and he could of gone pro everytime. maybe you just got lucky. they cant make it set in stone that if you break milestones you go to the pros automatically. guys will have the the programmers code broken down for this in no time and then we will all know what not to do so we can keep players. there has to be randomness and the programmers know that so we dont manipulate the ai.

I think the point is that based on the results many of us have seen, the probabilities are not playing out anywhere near the level they should be.

Again, 99% is not 100% guaranteed... but out of all of the great players I've seen in NCAA I have seen too many stay. On the flip side of that, out of all of the mediocre players I've seen too many go pro. Colt McCoy's don't transfer... 0.0001% chance in all likelihood. Things like this happen all of the time in NCAA.

I don't have a full statistical analysis of this, but what is being asked here is that the probability be a more exact science (but not 100% exact) than random 50/50 tossup. More values on the extremes of the range.

If an EA dev showed me the exact formula and it was proven that the probability model did play out that way, then I'd gladly take back my comments and eat crow.

[thelasthurtknee]

Quote: Originally Posted by youALREADYknow

I think the point is that based on the results many of us have seen, the probabilities are not playing out anywhere near the level they should be. Again, 99% is not 100% guaranteed... but out of all of the great players I've seen in NCAA I have seen too many stay. On the flip side of that, out of all of the mediocre players I've seen too many go pro. Colt McCoy's don't transfer... 0.0001% chance in all likelihood. Things like this happen all of the time in NCAA. I don't have a full statistical analysis of this, but what is being asked here is that the probability be a more exact science (but not 100% exact) than random 50/50 tossup. More values on the extremes of the range. If an EA dev showed me the exact formula and it was proven that the probability model did play out that way, then I'd gladly take back my comments and eat crow.

i agree it could be more exact. the transfer thing is what really gets me. i had my lb go pro last year as a redshirt jr. and he was good but the other two backers had better stats. did the guy leave because thats his personality or his dream or did he get his degree in four years and know that the pros were a pipe dream and give it go and move on. those are the things that i wish they would add. a little personality to the game. if a guy comes to your school because your a pro factory i would expect him to go pro. if a guy had academics as least i would expect some academic probs from him. if he loves you program and is from in state there is probably nothing that makes him happier than playing college ball for you and would never leave no matter what. what about transfers to go along with coaching changes(that dont exist other than hums at this point) and while im on it coaches should have home states and then be able to carry pipelines that they have recruited a great number of players out of when they take a new job. just ranting now but evolution of recruiting is what we need in this game instead of just tuning what has really been the same old thing with a new face.