OS Community: You make the call

[allhailben7]

In that situation... yes.

Punting from there is almost a sure touchback or a return past the 20. With 2:47 left, I want to have the ball last...

I wouldn't take the chance of him eating up clock and scoring with under 40 seconds to play.
So, if I don't get it with that much time left, I'll probably have the ball again to close the game.
And, with defense on this game, I am almost sure he's gonna score. I'd rather it be early.

[tarheelguy4736]

Go for it to seal the game. Real life scenario... Carolina panthers vs the Atlanta falcons... Panthers were up by a few points late in the fourth quarter and had a fourth and 1 around midfield...decided to punt ... Matt Ryan unleashes a bomb to panthers territory and they kick the game winning field goal. Later coach Rivera says he would go for it in that situation to seal the game. Just sounds like the guy was being a poor sport to quit on the game.

[allhailben7]

And... for real-world situations:

The Patriots famously went for a 4th and 2 from their own 28 with like 1:48 to play against the Colts like 4 years ago. I think they were up 3 or 4.

It's a good strategy... and not all too outrageous or uncommon.

[ECGopher]

I think the numbers generally show that you opponent was in the right in the sense that typically teams would not go for it in that situation. There are of course plenty of real life situations where teams HAVE gone for it, but typically teams would punt.

However does that mean you were wrong to go for it? I'd argue not. Assuming you weren't going for multiple 4th downs earlier in the game or anything like that I can't see why you going for it in a critical point of the game would drastically upset him. Like said before, stopping the run is much more difficult in the game than it is in real life but that's just what happens when you play a video game and on't actually strap on the pads and go play.

[thehip41]

Quote: Originally Posted by jwb0581

Scenario: Online dynasty, human vs. human. I'm up by 7 with 2:47 left in the game. Facing 4th and 1 from my own 48, I elect to go for it. My opponent quits the game. He claims it's not sim to go for 4th and 1 from your own 48. I say he's crazy and/or covering for the fact that he rage quit in an online dynasty game. 1. Who's right? and 2. Since "sim" is supposed to emulate real life, does anyone have any college football stats that show how often teams go for it on 4th and 1 from their own 48? Thanks in advance.

It's terrible to punt in that spot. You get the first down, the game is effectively over. Even if you don't, you are still up by 7 and he has the ball on the 45ish yard line.

Especially the way the game is turbo offense this year. By punting you probably gain 30 yards net. That's two plays.

By going for it, you will make it 75% of the time. So 3/4 of the time, the game is effectively over. The other 25% of the time, he probably scores, and you will have time left to drive down and kick a GW FG


Bill B from the Patriots went for it in a similar spot on his own 38 a few years ago against the Colts.

Its +EV to go for it there.

[pr3ston]

Didn't the patriots also fake a qb kneel and throw a TD on the dolphins a while back?

[grismosw]

Either way is fine IMO

[The JareBear]

Quote: Originally Posted by thehip41

It's terrible to punt in that spot. You get the first down, the game is effectively over. Even if you don't, you are still up by 7 and he has the ball on the 45ish yard line. Especially the way the game is turbo offense this year. By punting you probably gain 30 yards net. That's two plays. By going for it, you will make it 75% of the time. So 3/4 of the time, the game is effectively over. The other 25% of the time, he probably scores, and you will have time left to drive down and kick a GW FG Bill B from the Patriots went for it in a similar spot on his own 38 a few years ago against the Colts. Its +EV to go for it there.

That's what I'm saying in my post, it's probably more than 90 percent in the same, even with run commit a FB will fall forward for an extra yard to convert.

That's why I said trying to use real life situations is flawed because in real life there is much more risk to the reward.

I dunno. I understand why he went for it. I think on your side of 50 tho, most sim leagues have a punt policy to balance the OP blocking.

It wasn't a cheese move. It's really up to anyone's interpretation.

I would have punted, I expect anyone in my league to do the same

Oh, whoever said its a for sure touchback, you need to practice punting. It's easy to pin them inside the 5