speed or .obp?

[cardinalbird5]

Re: speed or .obp?

More at bats =/= more RBI chances. And the numbers say that the third hitter has the chance to produce the most runs. That is all I am going to say about this since you seem to be pretty centered on your opinion.

Did you read the articles I posted lol?

You are the one centered on your opinion. Personally, I have done a lot of reading on this subject the past 3-4 years as I find it very interesting. It is a well known consensus (at least those who have researched it outside of their little league years) that the 3rd hitter should be your 5th strongest hitter and your top 2 hitters should be your 2 highest OBP guys and it is the norm in MLB for managers to neglect this train of thinking.

Outside of using little league logic, please provide some analysis on how the 3rd hitter gets the most rbi chances? It is a FACT that 3 hitters always lead their team in PA's with NO ONE on base with 2 outs. That is the last position you want your best hitter to be in.

Sure there are times the top 2 guys will get on base to start a game and the 3 hitter knocks them both in, but that is not very common at all. You have to think of the long term and stop using hypothetical scenarios that rarely happen.

"The Third Spot

The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130405&content_id=43974688&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/03/baseball-myths-should-your-best-hitter-still-be-ba.aspx

[cardinalbird5]

Re: speed or .obp?

I read the two links and some of what has been said in this thread, and if I'm understanding it correctly the new method is to have a better hitter batting 4th than 3rd because the 4th slot on average has more runners on than the 3rd slot.

I think the reason that it works out that way is because the #3 hitter is usually your best hitter with some power, and good hitters with power tend to get pitched around more, so he would have one of the higher OBP's on the team. Doesn't that mean that whatever slot that hit behind wherever the usual #3 batter hit would have the most opportunity with runners on base?

I'm just saying that if you ran the best hitter at #2 in the lineup all season then whoever hits 3rd would then have the most oppertunities with a runner on. It's an interesting debate, but I feel that the old standard has directly influenced the new school approach.

That is interesting and I'd have to dig some more on it, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that is probably not the case. There is also a myth that batting someone in the 2 hole in front of a great hitter like Cabrera or Pujols will allow them to see more fastballs and strikes. That really isn't all that true if you research it. Pitcher's might be slighly more aggressive, but they still are going to try and get that hitter out with their best stuff obviously.

The current stats may be slightly skewed by due to the fact that most MLB managers do bat their best hitters 3rd, but the main reason the 4th and 5th hitters is due to them batting behind the top 3/4 OBP hitters in the lineup. 1st and 2nd hitters, especially in the NL, will have pitchers batting in front of them then 7th and 8th place hitters, who generally have the lowest OBP.

And don't get it twisted...the 3 hitter should still be a good hitter. The Cardinals bat Holliday there and I don't really consider him our best hitter, but he has been consistent and has always bat there the past 3 years. It just works for our team since we have 5-6 hitters who all have very similar numbers OBP and SLG. I think LaRussa kind of invented batting your best hitter 3rd since it gave them a few more AB's and it gave his team a chance to strike "early". Since then most managers seem to do the same for some reason. I don't know?

Your 2nd hitter should probably be your best overall hitter with your 1st hitter being your best OBP or 2nd best then your 4th should have the highest SLG followed by the 5th. The 2 hitter will get more RBI chances than the 1st hitter and will also get significant more AB's than 3,4,5 hitters throughout a season.

The main thing to take away is that the 3 hitters always lead their teams with PA's with no one on and 2 outs and the cleanup hitter will have the most RBI chances, regardless of how good the top 2 hitters are this will still be the case. Ultimately you are probably right that the way current managers make lineups are slightly skewing these statistics, but that will not change the fact the 3 spot is drastically overrated by managers.

Some other key notes about batting your best guy 2nd:
He shouldn't be a groundball/right handed hitter (DP's will nullify any value he adds to the 2 spot)
Lefties have a key advantage since there will be a hole between 1st and 2nd when the lead off guy gets on. That hole isn't as big to a right handed hitter since the 3b isn't holding a runner.
You should always look to mix and match lefties and righties in the lineup so it makes it harder for managers to optimize their bullpen in late innings with their left handed specialist.