BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

In an effort to not have all the starters 28 and older as rookies, I've had to make a spreadsheet logging the draft classes and I am now editing potential after one or two seasons. It's not too difficult, as long as not too many SP have been traded. So far I'm having good success with this. I've also changed the draft strategy and do not scout. So I am loosely following this :
I scouted looking for the specific player types that were too rare with never scouting:

Catchers - Fielding/Arm

Infield - Fielding/Speed

Outfield - Speed/Fielding

Outfield - Arm/Power

Most regions got 1 or 2 days, and a total of about 30 players were discovered. I scouted them all 100% and then entered the draft.

I did see those skill sets better represented, and every prospect entered the draft, so spillover shouldn't be an issue.

The draft pool still had all of the usual problems, the top potential guy was 98, and he was a 22 year old senior rated 42 Overall. That means he spent 4 years in college absolutely sucking, but MLB scouts saw that he'll be a stud by age 29 or so and took him 3rd overall. Unfortunately it seems age is just randomly generated.

That's from this thread:
http://www.operationsports.com/forum...nt-matter.html

[plak89]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

In an effort to not have all the starters 28 and older as rookies, I've had to make a spreadsheet logging the draft classes and I am now editing potential after one or two seasons. It's not too difficult, as long as not too many SP have been traded. So far I'm having good success with this. I've also changed the draft strategy and do not scout. So I am loosely following this :
I scouted looking for the specific player types that were too rare with never scouting:

Catchers - Fielding/Arm

Infield - Fielding/Speed

Outfield - Speed/Fielding

Outfield - Arm/Power

Most regions got 1 or 2 days, and a total of about 30 players were discovered. I scouted them all 100% and then entered the draft.

I did see those skill sets better represented, and every prospect entered the draft, so spillover shouldn't be an issue.

The draft pool still had all of the usual problems, the top potential guy was 98, and he was a 22 year old senior rated 42 Overall. That means he spent 4 years in college absolutely sucking, but MLB scouts saw that he'll be a stud by age 29 or so and took him 3rd overall. Unfortunately it seems age is just randomly generated.

That's from this thread:
http://www.operationsports.com/forum...nt-matter.html

Maybe a potential workaround for this issue would be to re-rate their potential based on their age. (i.e. 18 yr olds that have 99 or so pot can stay that way, but for every year older they get, they lose 5 potential pts. So say you get the guy you listed, you just subtract 20 pts from his potential)

Idk, just an idea.

[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Maybe a potential workaround for this issue would be to re-rate their potential based on their age. (i.e. 18 yr olds that have 99 or so pot can stay that way, but for every year older they get, they lose 5 potential pts. So say you get the guy you listed, you just subtract 20 pts from his potential)

Idk, just an idea.

I only leave field position players at 99. The highest I have left a pitcher is 96. I agree about changing the older pitches much more drastically, i.e if a SP is 23 with 96 POT and is a 46 right now he will be in the low 80's. The 18yo that is in the high 40's I might only drop to 92 or so. Once I get a better data I might start using a random number generator for the range of 85-96 and the guy will get what he gets...

[BrianU]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

I only leave field position players at 99. The highest I have left a pitcher is 96. I agree about changing the older pitches much more drastically, i.e if a SP is 23 with 96 POT and is a 46 right now he will be in the low 80's. The 18yo that is in the high 40's I might only drop to 92 or so. Once I get a better data I might start using a random number generator for the range of 85-96 and the guy will get what he gets...

I hope you keep us informed for the best method you find,. You sound like you know your ****.

[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

I hope you keep us informed for the best method you find,. You sound like you know your ****.

Not sure about all that but thanks...the only "problem" is I enjoy playing the actual games so it will take awhile to get my end results although I might just start a season and sim 8-10 years that would take prob 6ish hrs...

[NDAlum]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

I might just lower some dang ages


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[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Completed my baseline of 10yr simulation:
Settings: Used OSFM roster, all sliders to default (not sure if that effects anything but did not want to introducing more factors than I had too).

SP who had current rating of 90 or better:
2015 : 17
2024 : 85 (ummmm WHAT ?!?!?!?!?!??!!!)

RP who had current rating of 90 or better:
2015:0
2024:1

CP who had current rating of 90 or better:
2015: 6
2024: 15

Average of the top 5 batters:
2015:
AL : .309
NL : .318
2024:
AL : .287
NL : .285

Average of top 5 ERA's
2015:
AL : 2.41
NL : 2.21
2024:
AL : 2.26
NL : 1.90

So I would say that if you intend to have longer than a 5yr franchise you will have to do some type of manual editing. Now what and when to edit, I will try and work on tomorrow...

[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

More analysis:
Top five avg hits:
2015:
AL : 185
NL : 191
2024 :
AL : 175
NL : 165

[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Comparison to statistics over last decade of MLB:
Average of the top 5 batters:

2014:
AL : .329
NL : .313
2005:
AL : .320
NL : .324

Average of top 5 ERA's
2014:
AL : 2.36
NL : 2.25
2005:
AL : 3.09
NL : 2.51

Top five avg hits:
2014:
AL : 198
NL : 180
2005 :
AL : 205
NL : 196

So are the stats trending towards "better" pitching? Statistically speaking the numbers might say yes however I think this is a much more in depth conversation than merely looking at numbers and thinking this trend will continue. I do think the trend line created by this one simulation is an exaggeration of the past decade.

[elbomberoloco]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Most discouraging and disproportionate stat:
2024:
SP with OVR of 90+ - 85
Total field players 90+ - 14
That's EVERY fielding position combined for EVERY team, only 1 99 player.

So obviously some editing needs to be completed every draft.

One interesting fact is with all simming of drafts all players are younger and plenty of 18-19 yo.

Well I think I will start a new franchise and work on addressing how I will edit later.

[Tomahawk]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Does this effect the PS3, too? I wrote down the draft picks in the 2015 draft in my franchise who had a Potential Rating over 85 and the breakdown looks like this....

Total numbers with Overalls in parenthesis...
C - 4 (98, 87, 86, 85)
1B - 2 (87, 85)
2B - 1 (88)
3B - 2 (89, 89)
SS - 2 (93, 89)
LF - 2 (91, 86)
CF - 2 (93. 88)
RF - 1 (94)

SP - 12 (98, 97, 95, 95, 93, 93, 92, 91, 90, 89, 87, 87)
RP - 1 (87)
CP - 3 (93. 88. 86)


All Hitters - (98, 94, 93, 93, 91, 89, 89, 89, 88, 88, 87, 87, 86, 86, 85, 85)
All Pitchers - (98, 97, 95, 95, 93, 93, 93, 92, 91, 90, 89, 88, 87, 87, 87, 86)

That's 16 hitters and 16 pitchers over 85. Is that a bad thing?
Just wondering before I went any further and if I should adjust anyone's Potential rating.

I thought if I adjusted anything the best and simplest solution would be pairing off the hitters and the pitchers to adjust the Potential. For instance, the top hitter and pitcher are 98 so I would leave that alone. The #2 hitter is 94 and the #2 pitcher is 97 so I thought about adjusting them both to either 94 or 97 then do the same for each pair #3 to #16. Any opinions on that?

[bobloblah1980]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Does this effect the PS3, too?

I thought if I adjusted anything the best and simplest solution would be pairing off the hitters and the pitchers to adjust the Potential. For instance, the top hitter and pitcher are 98 so I would leave that alone. The #2 hitter is 94 and the #2 pitcher is 97 so I thought about adjusting them both to either 94 or 97 then do the same for each pair #3 to #16. Any opinions on that?

PS3? Not sure but I would assume so, only way to find out is to sim 5-10 years into the future.

You just simply can't have ANY SP or CP as an A rated coming out of the draft period. the progression is just too inflated for these 2 groups.. as stated earlier in this thread you basically HAVE to knock their POT down 10-12 points and believe me you will still see 90+ rated guys later on . I'm in 2023 and there are still quite a few 10-15 of them, just not a bunch of 99's as there would be if I didn't do the POT adjustments

[bobloblah1980]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Most discouraging and disproportionate stat:
2024:
SP with OVR of 90+ - 85
Total field players 90+ - 14
That's EVERY fielding position combined for EVERY team, only 1 99 player.

So obviously some editing needs to be completed every draft.

One interesting fact is with all simming of drafts all players are younger and plenty of 18-19 yo.

Well I think I will start a new franchise and work on addressing how I will edit later.

I started one with Willards roster . I went through and edited down all his (yes I lowered his POT's too) 5pts each before I started the franchise. Then for each draft class I did 10 pts down for and B's or lower for ALL SP & CP's and 12 pts down for A's.

Now I'm in 2023. I have 51 A rated SP's the bulk of which are 30+ years of age which means they are basically at their peak and will or are in decline which is close to rt in my book. As for ERA and Batting AVG stats. I don't really pay very close attn to that but from what I can remember from my 2022 season they are both still low but I believe that is just the game is just inherently programmed that way

[NDAlum]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

I did a sim with Willard's rosters and my pitching numbers were just crazy that first year. I had to go with another roster. It just wasn't working for me. Several teams were sub 3 ERA on the season and IIRC Kershaw had better numbers than his RL 2014 campaign.

[bobloblah1980]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

I did a sim with Willard's rosters and my pitching numbers were just crazy that first year. I had to go with another roster. It just wasn't working for me. Several teams were sub 3 ERA on the season and IIRC Kershaw had better numbers than his RL 2014 campaign.

Really? hmm that's weird? did you try the extra POT drop down I did? Then again I have accepted the fact that no matter what we do those pitching stats are going to be way off so I don't really get too wound up about them anymore