Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

[ShowTyme15]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

I actually agree there is probably to many pop ups. But it has nothing to do with RISP and less than 2 outs. It happens with any given scenario.

I wouldn't say there are to many pop ups (At least for me anyways, but it's been a small sample size), but I do agree that it can happen in any situation/scenario throughout the course of a game. I'd say the chopper in front of home is more frequent.

[kehlis]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

I actually agree there is probably to many pop ups. But it has nothing to do with RISP and less than 2 outs. It happens with any given scenario.

Agreed wholeheartedly. I think there are too many popups. But not just with RISP and that's why I asked this exact question earlier in this thread which to no surprise has gone unanswered to this point.

[55]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Too many popups, comebackers to the pitcher and weak choppers in front of home plate in ALL moments of the game. Not just with RISP. Sure, all of those things happen with RISP, but they also happen too often overall.

[jackbquick]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

I even asked the other poster to play a months worth of games and report back with his data, but I'm not sure he's going to do that.

To be determined. The idea sounds great, but I know it will be burdensome.

[bcruise]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Let me pitch this to the folks making too much weak contact (or thinking they are):

After the game (or even after one of these pop-ups), go into the batter analysis and pull up the "Label Hitchance" situation. Finding it is a little tricky at first, it's between "Label PitchType" and "Label Timing". The thing is, while Situation is highlighted only the word "Label" shows up - it only shows "Hitchance" if you scroll off it while the filter's active (that's kind of a bug IMO).

Hitchance is a measure of the chance of good contact on a swing, based SOLELY on where the PCI was located, on a scale of 0-15. It DOES NOT take swing timing into account. 0 Hitchance is going to be a swing and miss basically every time, because PCI was so far off that your timing wouldn't even matter. Even a 15 (PCI squared up perfectly) CAN still be a swing and miss, because as I mentioned, it doesn't take timing into account.

What you can get from this is a basic idea of how your PCI placement is, and the type of contact you should be getting on any given swing, assuming good timing. So let's take the really bad timing - the swings and misses - out of the equation. If you set "Result" to "Out" you'll be shown 24-27 red dots over the course of a game, each one showing how well you made contact. A large number of low numbers here is not good - it means weak contact and probably very easy outs.

This is data, something that we can actually use and discuss, and compare our results. It's a lot better than just an eyeball test or "thinking" you see something too often. I'll try to make an effort to post some of my results here via screenshot, and I'd encourage others to do the same. Unfortunately I don't have any baseline data for how much weak contact is made in a baseball game on average (nor would I know where to find it), so comparing results might be about the best we can do.

Edit: I almost forgot.....there's actually an RISP situation filter too. So if you really believe your numbers look different with nobody on, versus with RISP, you can use that too.

[saucerset]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

I just wanted to ask (I don't know if it's already been covered) does the fact that the pitcher pitching from the stretch and not the full wind up have something to do with the hits with runners on base? It throws timing way off which can cause more popup/choppers.

[Potatoes002]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Agreed wholeheartedly. I think there are too many popups. But not just with RISP and that's why I asked this exact question earlier in this thread which to no surprise has gone unanswered to this point.

This is my experience as well. Too many popups, and almost none of them are bloopers.

[Bobhead]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

There are definitely too many infield pop-ups (and foul pop-ups) in The Show. This has been a problem for a few years, and stems from the proportions of plate coverage and the timing window. You can see this for yourself by measuring line drive percentages, fly ball percentages, and foul ball percentages in The Show. I do this every year, and every year it's the same thing. It's not as bad this year, but it's still a problem.

As for line outs, I don't see more of those than I should. If you are using default sliders, perhaps try lowering Fielder Speed a bit to reduce the number of line drives within range of fielders?

[bcruise]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

There are definitely too many infield pop-ups (and foul pop-ups) in The Show. This has been a problem for a few years, and stems from the proportions of plate coverage and the timing window. You can see this for yourself by measuring line drive percentages, fly ball percentages, and foul ball percentages in The Show. I do this every year, and every year it's the same thing. It's not as bad this year, but it's still a problem.

As for line outs, I don't see more of those than I should. If you are using default sliders, perhaps try lowering Fielder Speed a bit to reduce the number of line drives within range of fielders?

Out of curiosity, what is the MLB average for each of those percentages?

[jackbquick]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Out of curiosity, what is the MLB average for each of those percentages?

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/batted-ball/

[Bobhead]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Out of curiosity, what is the MLB average for each of those percentages?

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/batted-ball/

Since foul balls are not in there: For at least a decade, MLB has consistently hung between a 47 and 49% foul ball rate, out of all balls on which the batter makes contact.

I'll edit a source in here as soon as I find it. There's way too many tabs on Fangraphs, lol.

[bcruise]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Since foul balls are not in there: For at least a decade, MLB has consistently hung between a 47 and 49% foul ball rate, out of all balls on which the batter makes contact.

I'll edit a source in here as soon as I find it. There's way too many tabs on Fangraphs, lol.

Yeah, you're not kidding about that....lol.

Well, for starters on this game I was just playing I was facing Lance Lynn, who has a career 40% GB ratio. <s>Going by some other filters that I didn't mention in my last post, he threw 11 grounders out of 44 balls hit into play - 25%.</s> Career LineDrive% 21.6 <s> - This game 11%.</s> One game of course means nothing in this context, but it was interesting to see the difference. I know you've done a lot more testing of this than I have, so this probably looks familiar to you.

Foul % is measured off of the total # of contact swings? Ouch, that's a tough one - I'm not sure how I can use the filters to track that. Any help is appreciated there.

Coming back with the first results based on my previous post - just a sec.

[bcruise]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?



Yes, I know the game's not over. This one went extras and the chart would get even murkier than it already is with more dots. Plus if it went over 40 it'd only show the last 40 outs.

That should give a pretty good idea of what I'm talking about. A lot of your batted ball outs are still going to be on the upper end of the scale - the lower numbers are often choppers or infield pops. As I mentioned in the last post, a pretty good chunk of those were outfield fly balls. And of course the oranges are swinging K's - they're still outs so it doesn't filter them.

I had no balls labeled as "choppers" in this whole game, and 5 pop ups out of 44 balls hit into play.

[Bobhead]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

So here's my source/back-up: Looking over my notes for my statistical analysis Excel sheets, looks like I actually had to do some math to come up with the rate I gave.

This was my point of reference:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...-batting.shtml

For 2014, Baseball Reference reports fouls out of total strikes (even taken ones), as 27.2%.
However, I find this to be a useless statistic, as I don't want missed/taken strikes included. So I used the total strike percentages, swing percentages, and contact percentages to convert that into a foul ball rate of about 48%.

See the spoiler for all the reasoning behind the preference, and the math behind the calculation.

Spoiler

Factoring unrelated things like strikes the batter missed entirely, leads to mis-interpretation of data. In this case, it could lead to mis-interpretation of the data in your comparison sample (The Show). For example, if The Show had more strikes than real life, the 27.2% statistic would lead one to think they were seeing too few foul balls, even though the correct number was actually appearing. I prefer to look at foul balls in relationship to pitches-made-contact on, because I feel like those two data points are directly related to each other.

Anyway, so factoring the total number of strikes thrown last year (450,840), gives you 122,628.48 foul balls. Going back to total strikes and then subtracting strikes taken (27.5%) gives you 326,859 swings. Apply contact percentage (77.5%) and you have 253,316 pitches on which the batter made contact, last year. Divide the foul balls: 48.409%

Here's an unrelated source to back-up my numbers (and give credence to my math).

http://www.sbnation.com/2011/8/30/2392384/adam-dunn-chicago-white-sox-stats-foul-balls

[Bobhead]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Yeah, you're not kidding about that....lol.

Well, for starters on this game I was just playing I was facing Lance Lynn, who has a career 40% GB ratio. Going by some other filters that I didn't mention in my last post, he threw 11 grounders out of 44 balls hit into play - 25%. Career LineDrive% 21.6 - This game 11%. One game of course means nothing in this context, but it was interesting to see the difference. I know you've done a lot more testing of this than I have, so this probably looks familiar to you.

Foul % is measured off of the total # of contact swings? Ouch, that's a tough one - I'm not sure how I can use the filters to track that. Any help is appreciated there.

Coming back with the first results based on my previous post - just a sec.

There's a filter for foul balls, and a filter for "contact". Just divide the two.

I use a spreadsheet like this one to do the math for me:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...UE&usp=sharing

I just plug in all the filter data.