MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Don't have the game in front of me for potentials, but would OF Eddy Martinez and 1B/3B Jeimer Candelario be sufficient return for Harvey? Besides maybe Ian Happ and Jimenez who I think they will eventually find spots for both, I think mostly everyone is blocked for the foreseeable future.

Thoughts?

We're talking about a potential ace on the good side of 30. Yes, he's had injury concerns but he's also young enough to bounce back and has shown top 5 Cy Young production (along with limited innings due to the injuries). He will require a headliner which means Happ or Jimenez along with the other 2 you mentioned. Particularly for the Cubs, we are solving an '18 problem at the break of '17. Even in a sub-par year, he's going to command a really, really good package or the Mets will simply keep him as he's got 1.5 years of control left and a sub-par '17 means less in arb for '18.

Obviously, I'm high on Harvey so let it sit for a while in case others come in with alternate packages.

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Maybe we'll get a BAL/TEX ALCS some day and we can pair up for my burger.

SIGNED: RF Bryce Harper
SIGNED: RP Andrew Miller

Washington resigned Goldschmidt and signed both LeMahieu and Blackmon. No idea what they intend to do with LeMahieu given they have Murphy and Turner.

In trying to be realistic, I'll only try to swing a deal with a team that will be looking to rebuild. There are pitchers I'd love but many play for competing teams, even Tampa Bay had an unexpected season last year. That leaves me with looking at these three guys:

DET - Michael Fulmer | 8-12 | 4.83 ERA | 26YR A POT
OAK - Sonny Gray | 17-9 | 2.90 ERA | 29YR B POT
PIT - Gerrit Cole | 12-10 | 3.71 ERA | 28YR A POT

Out of those three, Gray had the best season. Oakland is also the team most in need of a beefed up farm. With that said, I have some concerns about Gray's reliability. We know of his real life 2016 fall off. 2017 he didn't do much better with a 4.46 ERA. If we believe that 2018 is a return to form, this might be a really good fit for both teams. Cole is an interesting option but I don't know if he's my first choice. Despite Fulmer's numbers, I really like him. Still, Gray seems to be the most logical fit.

Alright, I've done my research. Here is what I've worked out, thumb it up or down. Tomas goes to DET who finished second in the Central but with a near .500 record. With that said, Cleveland has lost star players in each of the last two seasons in Brantley and Miller, leaving questions about how much longer they can run the Central division. Detroit has a big gap at DH with JaCoby Jones currently filling the slot. He hasn't made it through a complete season if you add up his last two years of games played.

DET Receives:
Yasmany Tomas
Taylor Clarke

ARI Receives:
Beau Burrows/Matt Manning

After that, I go for Gray.

OAK Receives:
Beau Burrows/Matt Manning
Richard Urena
Socrates Brito
Bo Bichette

ARI Receives:
Sonny Gray

[sc050610]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

We're talking about a potential ace on the good side of 30. Yes, he's had injury concerns but he's also young enough to bounce back and has shown top 5 Cy Young production (along with limited innings due to the injuries). He will require a headliner which means Happ or Jimenez along with the other 2 you mentioned. Particularly for the Cubs, we are solving an '18 problem at the break of '17. Even in a sub-par year, he's going to command a really, really good package or the Mets will simply keep him as he's got 1.5 years of control left and a sub-par '17 means less in arb for '18.



Obviously, I'm high on Harvey so let it sit for a while in case others come in with alternate packages.

I get your point. Guess I was lowering his value due to injury concerns and the fact that the Mets probably won't resign him after 2018. When he is healthy he can still be one of the best.


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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Alright, I've done my research. Here is what I've worked out, thumb it up or down. Tomas goes to DET who finished second in the Central but with a near .500 record. With that said, Cleveland has lost star players in each of the last two seasons in Brantley and Miller, leaving questions about how much longer they can run the Central division. Detroit has a big gap at DH with JaCoby Jones currently filling the slot. He hasn't made it through a complete season if you add up his last two years of games played.

DET Receives:
Yasmany Tomas
Taylor Clarke

ARI Receives:
Beau Burrows/Matt Manning

After that, I go for Gray.

OAK Receives:
Beau Burrows/Matt Manning
Richard Urena
Socrates Brito
Bo Bichette

ARI Receives:
Sonny Gray

I doubt you could get Manning or Burrows for a younger version of Matt Kemp

When I say younger Matt Kemp I mean this version of Kemp who plays bad defense and can't take a walk, not the MVP level guy the real Kemp was when Braun stole the MVP from him

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I doubt you could get Manning or Burrows for a younger version of Matt Kemp

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Not to argue here but I think you're undervaluing a guy who just hit 34 HR and drove in 89 RBI for me. Had he played for Detroit the season prior, he would have led their team in HR. Not even Miggy found that success. Considering he would be occupying a DH role, I think there is serious value there. This isn't a NL team where he has to play the OF (miserable I'll admit) to give you production. If he replicates that same season, which at 28, there is no reason to think he can't. I think that is something Detroit would covet. Especially given his attributes see him getting a +9 and +8 in both POWVR and POWVL. In addition to that I'm including a 24 year old arm who has thrown in the low 3's in terms of ERA his last two seasons in AAA and who would be considered the 10th best pitcher in the Tigers Organization.

This is in exchange for a very good young pitcher (either 8th or 9th in ORG) who is currently behind Fulmer, Zimmermann, Norris, Hurd (20yr, 75 OVR, A POT '17 Draftee), Funkhouser and Alexander for a spot in the Rotation. That is with me excluding the 36 year old Verlander who threw for a 3.14 last year. Maybe I can offer more but I honestly don't feel like I'm cheesing here. If there was a situation that made sense for Tomas, it's to an AL team who desperately needs a DH. Detroit is that team.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Not to argue here but I think you're undervaluing a guy who just hit 34 HR and drove in 89 RBI for me. Had he played for Detroit the season prior, he would have led their team in HR. Not even Miggy found that success. Considering he would be occupying a DH role, I think there is serious value there. This isn't a NL team where he has to play the OF (miserable I'll admit) to give you production. If he replicates that same season, which at 28, there is no reason to think he can't. I think that is something Detroit would covet. Especially given his attributes see him getting a +9 and +8 in both POWVR and POWVL. In addition to that I'm including a 24 year old arm who has thrown in the low 3's in terms of ERA his last two seasons in AAA and who would be considered the 10th best pitcher in the Tigers Organization.

This is in exchange for a very good young pitcher (either 8th or 9th in ORG) who is currently behind Fulmer, Zimmermann, Norris, Hurd (20yr, 75 OVR, A POT '17 Draftee), Funkhouser and Alexander for a spot in the Rotation. That is with me excluding the 36 year old Verlander who threw for a 3.14 last year. Maybe I can offer more but I honestly don't feel like I'm cheesing here. If there was a situation that made sense for Tomas, it's to an AL team who desperately needs a DH. Detroit is that team.

In real life he hit 31 HR and 83 RBI last year and was worth -0.1 WAR. He's just not that good of a player. Maybe someone else has an opinion on Tomas but he doesn't have much value with his contract and his poor play outside of HR

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

In real life he hit 31 HR and 83 RBI last year and was worth -0.1 WAR. He's just not that good of a player. Maybe someone else has an opinion on Tomas but he doesn't have much value with his contract and his poor play outside of HR

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Sure, however that WAR is a direct result of his defensive play. Something he wouldn't have in a DH role. I'd argue that somebody who can put up 30+ HR consistently is a good player, if they're in a DH role. If you take his dWAR out of the picture, he puts up a 1.1 WAR last year.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Sure, however that WAR is a direct result of his defensive play. Something he wouldn't have in a DH role. I'd argue that somebody who can put up 30+ HR consistently is a good player, if they're in a DH role.

No. As a DH you get assigned a negative defensive value. So he's still be burdened by that. He's probably go from his -19.7 defensive value to a -15.2 so that might make him roughly a half a win player instead of a negative

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

No. As a DH you get assigned a negative defensive value. So he's still be burdened by that. He's probably go from his -19.7 defensive value to a -15.2 so that might make him roughly a half a win player instead of a negative

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Even so, we're pretending his bat has no value. I just can't get on board with that. I'm sure there are a handful of AL teams that wouldn't pause to give Tomas a look at DH.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Even so, we're pretending his bat has no value. I just can't get on board with that. I'm sure there are a handful of AL teams that wouldn't pause to give Tomas a look at DH.

He had a 109 wRC+ last year. That's good enough for the 12th best figure out of qualified DH last season. Just below Kendrys Morales and above Joe Mauer. So best case he's the 12th best DH in a league that only has 15. That doesn't sound too valuable to me

Chris Carter just came off a 41 HR and 94 RBI season where he was non tendered and given $3.5 million for one season on the open market. These sluggers aren't as valuable as you think

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[MrSerendipity]

MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

He had a 109 wRC+ last year. That's good enough for the 12th best figure out of qualified DH last season. Just below Kendrys Morales and above Joe Mauer. So best case he's the 12th best DH in a league that only has 15. That doesn't sound too valuable to me

Chris Carter just came off a 41 HR and 94 RBI season where he was non tendered and given $3.5 million for one season on the open market. These sluggers aren't as valuable as you think

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His wRC+ was 3 higher than McCutchen with a .08 lesser WAR and higher than Hosmer who had a worse WAR. Yet we've decided that Hosmer is worth a young talented/wildcard MLB ready player plus two. Hosmer is also older and is on an expiring contract.

So I guess I'm just confused as to how these sabermetrics, despite Hosmer being statistically worse, result in a much worse return. If Hosmer is worth a B and two high C's, how is Tomas (coupled with a High C) not worth a single B?

[HolyStroke3]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Alright I'm 3 days from the trade deadline, here's a couple competing offers

for SP C. Archer (87 OVR, 8-7 3.63 ERA 1.31 WHIP 138 K 41 BB 134 IP)
Cardinals (55-47, 2nd)
SP A. Reyes (79 OVR/90 Potential/#1 Prospect)* Out for season from Tommy John in Feb.
SS D. Perez (59 OVR/80 Pot/#4 Pros)
CF H. Bader (68 OVR/90 Pot/#5 Pros)
SP J. Flaherty (57 OVR/80 Pot/#8 Pros)

Dodgers (56-47, T1st)
SP Y. Alvarez (67 OVR/93 Pot/#2 Pros)
CF A. Verdugo (64 OVR/87 Pot/#3 Pros)
SS G. Lux (57 OVR/78 Pot/#7 Pros)
LF S. Heredia (51 OVR/72 Pot/#12 Pot)
SP I. Abdullah (56 OVR/74 Pot/#15 Pros)
SP T. Oaks (57 OVR/78 Pot/#17 Pros)


and for CP D. Robertson (85 OVR, 21/22 Saves, 0.93 WHIP 34 K 29 IP)
Washington (58-43, 1st)
SP E. Fedde (72 OVR/90 Pot/#2 Pros)
RF J. Soto (57 OVR/81 Pot/#3 Pros)
SS W. Difo (67 OVR/77 Pot, .237/.277/.353 5 HR 44 RBI in AAA)

Arizona (53-49, 3rd)
SP R. Ray (75 OVR, 5-9 4.38 ERA 103 K 90.1 IP)
3B D. Lugo (61 OVR/80 Pot/#4 Pros)
SP T. Clarke (59 OVR/74 Potential/#5 Prospect)
LF S. Brito (65 OVR/80 Pot/#6 Pros)
SS S. Alcantara (54 OVR/76 Pot/#15 Pros)

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

His wRC+ was 3 higher than McCutchen with a .08 lesser WAR and higher than Hosmer who had a worse WAR. Yet we've decided that Hosmer is worth a young talented/wildcard MLB ready player plus two. Hosmer is also older and is on an expiring contract.

So I guess I'm just confused as to how these sabermetrics, despite Hosmer being statistically worse, result in a much worse return. If Hosmer is worth a B and two high C's, how is Tomas (coupled with a High C) not worth a single B?

McCutcheon has had 7 and 8 WAR seasons. That carries some weight. Last year was his career worse. The -0.1 was a career high for Tomas. Hosmer has been a 3 WAR player multiple times. I don't think he's great but hes much better than Tomas.

It really just comes down to how Tomas isn't a good player. We have over 1000 PA where his wRC+ for his career is 101. He's been worth negative WAR for his career. None of these give him value

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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Alright I'm 3 days from the trade deadline, here's a couple competing offers

for SP C. Archer (87 OVR, 8-7 3.63 ERA 1.31 WHIP 138 K 41 BB 134 IP)
Cardinals (55-47, 2nd)
SP A. Reyes (79 OVR/90 Potential/#1 Prospect)* Out for season from Tommy John in Feb.
SS D. Perez (59 OVR/80 Pot/#4 Pros)
CF H. Bader (68 OVR/90 Pot/#5 Pros)
SP J. Flaherty (57 OVR/80 Pot/#8 Pros)

Dodgers (56-47, T1st)
SP Y. Alvarez (67 OVR/93 Pot/#2 Pros)
CF A. Verdugo (64 OVR/87 Pot/#3 Pros)
SS G. Lux (57 OVR/78 Pot/#7 Pros)
LF S. Heredia (51 OVR/72 Pot/#12 Pot)
SP I. Abdullah (56 OVR/74 Pot/#15 Pros)
SP T. Oaks (57 OVR/78 Pot/#17 Pros)


and for CP D. Robertson (85 OVR, 21/22 Saves, 0.93 WHIP 34 K 29 IP)
Washington (58-43, 1st)
SP E. Fedde (72 OVR/90 Pot/#2 Pros)
RF J. Soto (57 OVR/81 Pot/#3 Pros)
SS W. Difo (67 OVR/77 Pot, .237/.277/.353 5 HR 44 RBI in AAA)

Arizona (53-49, 3rd)
SP R. Ray (75 OVR, 5-9 4.38 ERA 103 K 90.1 IP)
3B D. Lugo (61 OVR/80 Pot/#4 Pros)
SP T. Clarke (59 OVR/74 Potential/#5 Prospect)
LF S. Brito (65 OVR/80 Pot/#6 Pros)
SS S. Alcantara (54 OVR/76 Pot/#15 Pros)

Both of the Robertson packages are far too much. He couldn't get Fedde and Soto and Robbie Ray alone is more valuable than him. Teams willing to trade for a closer don't do so by weakening their rotation.

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Okay, we're not going to agree on Tomas so I'll move on from trying to find value there. With that said, I am going to include him in a deal directly with OAK and skip DET. You can let me know if this is still too much.

OAK Receives
LF - Yasmany Tomas (28yr, 84 OVR, B POT)
CF - PJ Crow (22yr, 74 OVR, B POT | '17 DRAFTEE)
1B - Fritz Oakes (20yr, 60OVR, B POT | '17 DRAFTEE)
SP - Archie Bradley (26yr, 76 OVR, A POT)
SP - Cody Reed (22yr, 67 OVR, C POT)
SP - Curtis Sutton (19yr, 56 OVR, B POT | '18 DRAFTEE)

ARI Receives
SP - Sonny Gray (29yr, 87 OVR, B POT)
RP - Sean DooLittle (32yr, 82 OVR, B POT)

Oakland is devoid of talent right now. They played a fresh 18 year old in CF last year that has D potential and has already seeing a regression in his attributes. Mark Canaha is their only legitimate OF, as Davis finished 2018 with a .217 AVG. They have nothing but 25YR+ C/D prospects in the OF outside of one 21YR B Prospect who looks to be far away (56 OVR). Crow is both younger and rated better than Verdugo at the moment. I could throw him out in the OF if I wasn't intent on keeping Verdugo. They have a few good pitching prospects but I help that a little in providing Bradley, Reed and Sutton. They have some decent prospects at SS and 2B but they have nobody coming up the pipe at first. Healy has played decent but he's nearing 28 and barely has a 70 OVR with a .244 AVG. I send them Oakes there.

Thoughts?