MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[fightingirish595]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

So what do you think a package could look like?

Not sure if you'll see this but obviously starting pitching is at a premium. But in real like I don't think the Yankees would have to give up that much for sonny gray. Then again they got quite a bit for bullpen pitchers last year. I just don't see Gray as the type of guy to give up 2 top prospects for. I would try to get a 20 game winner for 2 guys like that

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I was gonna ask for a little rundown of the Pirates circumstances in lieu of any suggestions. Any notable injuries? Position players struggling?



My first thought was adding to the rotation, maybe Odorizzi, as I don't think the Bucs will give up what it takes for Quintana. Also, the real team has no true 4th OF, so unless that's been addressed in your franchise, perhaps that can be worked into a deal if the Bucs are buying.

Sure. The Pirates are currently 52-44 and 5 games behind the Division Leading Cubs. They're just 1 game back in the Wild Card Race. Finally, they're 24-15 in the NL Central with a .500 record against the Cubs.

Chad Kuhn is on the DL for a little more than week with a strained pectoral. Outside of that, he's played well with an 8-5 record and a 3.15 ERA. Cole has been disappointing with a 5-10 record and a 4.17 ERA. Tailing has been great with a 8-3 record and a 2.79 ERA. Nova has been decent with a 5-3 record and a 3.42 ERA. But both Glasgow and Williams have struggled with a combined 5-9 record and a 5.39 ERA.

The Pirates have been great at the plate. Marte, Cervelli, Jaso and McCutchen have been studs at the plate (batting .290 or better). Harrison, Gosselin, Freese and Mercer have all performed admirable with averages ranging from .262 to .284. Polanski is batting at .237 right now. On the bench, Bell is batting .173, Stewart is batting .278, Hanson is batting .228 and Frazier is batting .276.

[Qb]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Sure. The Pirates are currently 52-44 and 5 games behind the Division Leading Cubs. They're just 1 game back in the Wild Card Race. Finally, they're 24-15 in the NL Central with a .500 record against the Cubs.

Chad Kuhn is on the DL for a little more than week with a strained pectoral. Outside of that, he's played well with an 8-5 record and a 3.15 ERA. Cole has been disappointing with a 5-10 record and a 4.17 ERA. Tailing has been great with a 8-3 record and a 2.79 ERA. Nova has been decent with a 5-3 record and a 3.42 ERA. But both Glasgow and Williams have struggled with a combined 5-9 record and a 5.39 ERA.

The Pirates have been great at the plate. Marte, Cervelli, Jaso and McCutchen have been studs at the plate (batting .290 or better). Harrison, Gosselin, Freese and Mercer have all performed admirable with averages ranging from .262 to .284. Polanski is batting at .237 right now. On the bench, Bell is batting .173, Stewart is batting .278, Hanson is batting .228 and Frazier is batting .276.

In light of that, not sure any of the guys you listed to be dealt are a fit, unless you want the Bucs to deal Meadows & more for a SP (which I just don't see them doing with Cutch on the way out).

If you just want some trading action anyway to spice up the deadline, I think the Bucs of your franchise would target a (LH?) SP who could contribute down the stretch and possibly take the hill in the postseason, but is more of a 3rd/4th type. Also, a RH corner OF/1B with some power for pinch hitting and spelling Polanco/Jaso/Bell against LHPs.

[babybombers II]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I realize these posts are 10 days old but:

Previous year: 60%
Two years: 30%
Three years: 10%

Andrew McCutchen: 2.84, Steamer 2.8
Yasiel Puig: 1.59, Steamer 2.6
Dallas Keuchel: 3.75, Steamer 3.6

The thing to do then is to curve this to age. This is just a video game so we can do this mentally, using the prior that peak is around 26. You also want to regress, obviously, but it's less of an issue here.

This is just for pre-season, though. When considering current year performance, it's trickier. You could do something like:

(player_PA / 650)*WAR + [(650-player_PA)/650]*projection

Where "projection" is the 60/30/10 weighting.

Having WAR in the game is a huge bonus. Imo, this thread should mostly be focused realism checks at this point, or more abstract things like how to value 3 for 1s or the like. I think we have a good concept of player value at this point.

sum(WAR_over_contract) * (10+0.05*years_on_contract) - sum(salary_over_contract) = surplus value

The hardest part is obviously the the WAR over contract, but we have prospect valuations that are very good estimates, reasonable ways to project true talent, and even good ways to value draft pick compensation For major leaguers, it's simple enough to just take his true talent WAR (as shown above) and curve it to age for each year of his contract, using something like this. Ignore the equation, obviously, and don't use the raw numbers as it's for wOBA, not WAR (but it's still pretty representative, just maybe take a bit more off pitchers):



sum(WAR_over_contract) * (10+0.05*years_on_contract) - sum(salary_over_contract) = surplus value

Cutch is projected at 2.84, and you can just simplify and multiply by 1.95 if you believe he'll lose 5% performance next year (so about 5.5 wins over the next two years). The cost of a win goes up about 5% a year and is at 10 right now. He's due 28.5m.

(2.84*1.95) * (10+0.05*2) - 28.5 ~= $56m surplus value

Or a couple of good prospects.

Am I missing something or is the math a little off. Im coming up with 56M before subracting the contract. I must be messing something up because with this formula im coming up with 27.5M surplus value

[Gagnon39]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

With Arrieta and Lackey possibly gone at the end of the season I'm looking at possibly adding a starter. I may wait until the offseason or if Anderson isn't cutting it I may look to deal at the deadline.

I'd really really like to get Sonny Gray and I know that would likely take a top prospect. What would Oakland need to get it done? Happ or Jiminez straight up. Not real familiar with Oakland's need(s).


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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

With Arrieta and Lackey possibly gone at the end of the season I'm looking at possibly adding a starter. I may wait until the offseason or if Anderson isn't cutting it I may look to deal at the deadline.

I'd really really like to get Sonny Gray and I know that would likely take a top prospect. What would Oakland need to get it done? Happ or Jiminez straight up. Not real familiar with Oakland's need(s).


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Jimenez is too good for Gray after last season. I could see something with Ian Happ though

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

With Arrieta and Lackey possibly gone at the end of the season I'm looking at possibly adding a starter. I may wait until the offseason or if Anderson isn't cutting it I may look to deal at the deadline.

I'd really really like to get Sonny Gray and I know that would likely take a top prospect. What would Oakland need to get it done? Happ or Jiminez straight up. Not real familiar with Oakland's need(s).


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We've bounced S. Gray around a few times and I've just gotten to the point that the only decent way to value him is to take his WAR in-game and use it to offset last year. He went 3.1 and 3.7 in his first 2 full years prior and drops off to 0.7 last year. Either he was hurt more than he was letting on and lost his delivery trying to compensate or he is starting his fall off the cliff a little early. We'll find out soon enough when he comes of the DL (next month?) That's the long way of saying, when you get there, publish your data and that will narrow down the package quickly.

Like you said though, there are going to be some arms in FA next year that are worth a second and third look that will cost you nothing but money and you can save all that trade currency the Cubs have for the blockbuster that may/should be coming.

[babybombers II]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

We've bounced S. Gray around a few times and I've just gotten to the point that the only decent way to value him is to take his WAR in-game and use it to offset last year. He went 3.1 and 3.7 in his first 2 full years prior and drops off to 0.7 last year. Either he was hurt more than he was letting on and lost his delivery trying to compensate or he is starting his fall off the cliff a little early. We'll find out soon enough when he comes of the DL (next month?) That's the long way of saying, when you get there, publish your data and that will narrow down the package quickly.

Like you said though, there are going to be some arms in FA next year that are worth a second and third look that will cost you nothing but money and you can save all that trade currency the Cubs have for the blockbuster that may/should be coming.

A good Value to go off of would be right around 1.84 WAR for this season using ACs formula of 60/30/10. FanGraphs steamer has a projection of 2.2 I believe.

[babybombers II]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

A good Value to go off of would be right around 1.84 WAR for this season using ACs formula of 60/30/10. FanGraphs steamer has a projection of 2.2 I believe.

Which would give you a surplus of 37 Million. Which is why Happ would make sense because he is valued at 38 Million with a 55 FV.

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Funny. In my Cardinals fantasy franchise is year 2 I actually have pondered a Harper for Trout swap. And I know I would have to include more than just Harper to get Mike Trout.

I don't see why you can't discuss trades for Trout. Even though there are not enough trade slots...you can simply send over a second deal and send back player to be named later type of talents (or lack of talent more so).

It can be done. And Trout is a guy who very well may be traded one day.

As mentioned, there was some ancillary stuff floating around the debate of trading Trout that needed to stop before we could actually talk about a value for trading Trout.

You're right, he very well may be traded one day but a) he has a full no-trade clause so it will be to a team he wants to play for and b) it will have to come with a guaranteed contract extension, the value of which, won't be set until after the FA class of '18 gets paid. When you have the best widget, you don't set the market, you exceed the market. He'd leave a lot of money on the table if he went earlier than that. Plus, the Angels have to be on their last heartbeat.

If you try to figure it this year, the numbers get just plain...dumb.

[Bard]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Something I have been thinking about.

Cubs Receive:
Sonny Gray
Ryan Doolittle

A's Receive:
Ian Happ
Jeimer Candelario
Oscar de la Cruz


Preliminary looks, but if Gray is at the value of Happ is what this is based off of.

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[brandonholmes]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

As mentioned, there was some ancillary stuff floating around the debate of trading Trout that needed to stop before we could actually talk about a value for trading Trout.

You're right, he very well may be traded one day but a) he has a full no-trade clause so it will be to a team he wants to play for and b) it will have to come with a guaranteed contract extension, the value of which, won't be set until after the FA class of '18 gets paid. When you have the best widget, you don't set the market, you exceed the market. He'd leave a lot of money on the table if he went earlier than that. Plus, the Angels have to be on their last heartbeat.

If you try to figure it this year, the numbers get just plain...dumb.

Exactly. The problem is when you tell a guy what a value is, he doesn't agree and comes back debating for 3 pages and clogs up the entire thread. We're here for realistic trade values and discussion, which can include Trout, but don't be surprised when the answer isn't your number 3, 9 and 15 prospects because you ate a contract. Extracting the best player on Earth isn't easy, and it's really unlikely to happen, especially this year.

I get it's a video game, but anyone lurking who wants Trout, if you reallly want to do it your game and you want to know what it looks like:

Your best prospect
your next best prospect
your next best prospect

Keep going.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Something I have been thinking about.

Cubs Receive:
Sonny Gray
Ryan Doolittle

A's Receive:
Ian Happ
Jeimer Candelario
Oscar de la Cruz


Preliminary looks, but if Gray is at the value of Happ is what this is based off of.

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Drop de la Cruz down to a slightly worse pitching prospect like Clifton, Albertos or Hatch and I think you're there

[AC]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Happ and Candelairo for Gray is probably fine

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Exactly. The problem is when you tell a guy what a value is, he doesn't agree and comes back debating for 3 pages and clogs up the entire thread. We're here for realistic trade values and discussion, which can include Trout, but don't be surprised when the answer isn't your number 3, 9 and 15 prospects because you ate a contract. Extracting the best player on Earth isn't easy, and it's really unlikely to happen, especially this year.



I get it's a video game, but anyone lurking who wants Trout, if you reallly want to do it your game and you want to know what it looks like:



Your best prospect

your next best prospect

your next best prospect



Keep going.

Which takes away from everyone else trying to get insight.