I don't think it's done "poorly", I actually really like that a player's performance can alter the pathway. I have 35 yr old 1B who is actually PRO-gressing right now because he's playing incredibly. I have other guys that aren't playing as well and are obviously on the down-slope of their careers and are regressing. Those are both really good things (and I see them throughout my franchise).
The impact of potential IS over-done (for progression/regression and trade logic), I do agree with that. In past games, the AI has over-valued the potential GRADE (not just the number). It made it VERY dicey to use the vast number of custom rosters because they overdid the potentials when creating them. A lot of the progression/regression/trade logic complaints stemmed from people using poorly conceived rosters (it's a harsh way of saying it and I acknowledge that the 90-mans put a crimp on 'creative license' - but they don't jive with the mode). Even with one of the 'good' rosters, it isn't quite right - I can get way more value from a 90 potential ('A') vs an 89 potential ('B')...and therein lies the fundamental flaw that you're alluding to (it's too "binary").
That said, I don't think it HAS to be too complicated though. In essence, the player's overall already acts as a de facto 'floor' (especially for young players and draftees). I had a guy drafted in my franchise (75 overall CF...D potential). What that says to me is "high floor, low ceiling"...he will likely show SOME development above his current OVR, but that career arc is going to be quite different as he may be a quick "flame-out". This is, again, where most of those custom rosters don't cut the mustard...they cut out a ton of those 'D/F' potential guys and replace them with "prospects" and you lose a ton of that development variety. Additionally, better prospect potential variety means more 'cycling' of guys through the farm systems...more guys get a chance to 'fail' or 'succeed' which then drives more variety within the progression/regression system.
If you (or any others reading) haven't done this with MLBTS20, fire up an auto-control franchise using Bacon's fictional or the 80s Strat-O-matic roster. Sim through a few years and you can see the difference in how progression/regression works comapred with say Ridin's roster (or the SDS defaults). It's hard to see ALL the subtelty just by quick simming everything, but it'll give you a flavor of what I mean.
My 'hope' is that some of the overhaul work SDS spoke about will make player values more relative to those around them (like how madden does where it's not just raw OVR, but also how they stack up with others in the league at their positions). If SDS achieves that, then it would (theoretically) make the progression more 'compatible' with a larger slew of roster motifs and even if it were merely combined with the 'old' formula, would still improve it greatly for a large number of players that use more 'standard' rosters.
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