2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[glunsford]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Back to trades!

Jason Castro + Ronny Cedeno + Phil Humber/Carlos Pena for David Phelps ??

Jeter's sucking in-game (.244/.294/.334), Cervelli/Stewart are also sucking. A-Rod/Tex/Youk are all underwhelming at .240-.260 with lackluster power numbers. Phelps is in AAA w/ 3-1 2.85 ERA 1.12 WHIP. Yankees are in 1st place.

Castro's been awful, but I think he'd be an upgrade over what NYY has (ratings-wise at least). Also, Cedeno could spell Jeter, and Humber has been pitching very well lately (8-4 4.56 ERA 1.13 WHIP, .228 BAA, 108 K/26 BB).

i believe the stros are losing this one as th highest he has played in is AAA while all three of those have played in the bigs this year... i believe that phelps for humber straight up would be a better deal

[hradekbr]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

No, it's ok. Just not seeing eye to eye on this...

Segura > Castro....LOL. Not really any way to reason with something like that.

100% agree with you on this whole conversation (sorry that I'm late to back you up) but forsure Castor is a top 3 SS in the league right now and he's doing it in his age 22 season. As I'm going through recent years of players around Castro's BA, no one has that much of a lower BABIP than him and some even have higher. The funny thing is that Castro hasn't even hit his "peak years" yet and he's already got a 200 hit season.... Yes his careless defense scares you a little and I know his plate discipline isn't the best but I wouldn't be too worried. And come on Ac putting Jeter and A Cab as better SS than him right now is silly, and those are two of my favorite SS in baseball

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

100% agree with you on this whole conversation (sorry that I'm late to back you up) but forsure Castor is a top 3 SS in the league right now and he's doing it in his age 22 season. As I'm going through recent years of players around Castro's BA, no one has that much of a lower BABIP than him and some even have higher. The funny thing is that Castro hasn't even hit his "peak years" yet and he's already got a 200 hit season.... Yes his careless defense scares you a little and I know his plate discipline isn't the best but I wouldn't be too worried. And come on Ac putting Jeter and A Cab as better SS than him right now is silly, and those are two of my favorite SS in baseball

THANK YOU!!! Maybe AC will see the light yet as well. And yeah, it's funny to read the "regression" arguments about Starlin Castro's foot speed and bat speed when he just turned 23, is 3-5 years before his absolute peak (maybe 1 year before his peak years even start), and is on pace to be one of the youngest players to 1000 hits of all time.

One thing I did forget to mention earlier is Elvis Andrus, who's gotta be up there with Castro as well. Andrus has a better batting eye, slightly more speed, and plays better D, but Castro has more power and is also a better contact hitter imo. Castro has the higher ceiling I think...

If I had to rank top 10 MLB shortstops right now, I'd go (objectively):

1. Tulo
2. Andrus
3. Castro
4. Hardy
5. Han-Ram (skills have really declined)
6. Reyes
7. A-Cab
8. Desmond
9. Simmons
10. Rollins

Due to age/injury, Jeter doesn't make my top 10. Love the guy as a player, but I agree with you there are better options. Some may quibble with the exact order, but I don't think there's a legit scout/FO type in all of baseball that would leave Castro out of the top 5.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

100% agree with you on this whole conversation (sorry that I'm late to back you up) but forsure Castor is a top 3 SS in the league right now and he's doing it in his age 22 season. As I'm going through recent years of players around Castro's BA, no one has that much of a lower BABIP than him and some even have higher.

In that case I'd love to see you post some actual data lol.

The funny thing is that Castro hasn't even hit his "peak years" yet and he's already got a 200 hit season....

And you know this how, pray tell?

Yes his careless defense scares you a little and I know his plate discipline isn't the best but I wouldn't be too worried. And come on Ac putting Jeter and A Cab as better SS than him right now is silly, and those are two of my favorite SS in baseball

For the record; 2012 Jeter wRC+ - 117. That's higher than anything Castro has ever done and it's not actually his best season. About the same with A-Cab.

THANK YOU!!! Maybe AC will see the light yet as well. And yeah, it's funny to read the "regression" arguments about Starlin Castro's foot speed and bat speed when he just turned 23, is 3-5 years before his absolute peak (maybe 1 year before his peak years even start), and is on pace to be one of the youngest players to 1000 hits of all time.

Oh my Jeebus, hits isn't the only thing a player can contribute to a baseball team. This is pre-moneyball thinking here lol.

Also, defense peaks early (which is bad for Castro's defense), as does batspeed (but later). And when you're trying to throw out an entire set of statistics to prove your point then I just dunno what to say.

One thing I did forget to mention earlier is Elvis Andrus, who's gotta be up there with Castro as well. Andrus has a better batting eye, slightly more speed, and plays better D, but Castro has more power and is also a better contact hitter imo. Castro has the higher ceiling I think...

Huh, you actually acknowledged defense. Yay. And Castro has more power but that doesn't mean he has power period.

Castro has the higher ceiling, I'm saying that he's not better RIGHT NOW lol. So that's fairly irrelevant now, no?

Oh, and I can't explain these because I actually really have to run, but here are their plate discipline numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

Castro's not a better contact hitter (he's decent but Andrus is better).

If I had to rank top 10 MLB shortstops right now, I'd go (objectively):

1. Tulo
2. Andrus
3. Castro
4. Hardy
5. Han-Ram (skills have really declined)
6. Reyes
7. A-Cab
8. Desmond
9. Simmons
10. Rollins

1.) Tulo 2.) Andrus 3.) Reyes 3.) Hardy 5.) Simmons 6.) Castro 7.) A-Cab 8.) Han-Ram 9.) A-Cab 10.) Lowrie/AEscobar/Peralta

Also, I don't think you can really say 'objectively' lol.

Due to age/injury, Jeter doesn't make my top 10. Love the guy as a player, but I agree with you there are better options.

Okay, that's fair, I just don't agree, simply enough.

[hradekbr]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

In that case I'd love to see you post some actual data lol.



And you know this how, pray tell?



For the record; 2012 Jeter wRC+ - 117. That's higher than anything Castro has ever done and it's not actually his best season. About the same with A-Cab.



Oh my Jeebus, hits isn't the only thing a player can contribute to a baseball team. This is pre-moneyball thinking here lol.

Also, defense peaks early (which is bad for Castro's defense), as does batspeed (but later). And when you're trying to throw out an entire set of statistics to prove your point then I just dunno what to say.



Huh, you actually acknowledged defense. Yay. And Castro has more power but that doesn't mean he has power period.

Castro has the higher ceiling, I'm saying that he's not better RIGHT NOW lol. So that's fairly irrelevant now, no?

Oh, and I can't explain these because I actually really have to run, but here are their plate discipline numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

Castro's not a better contact hitter (he's decent but Andrus is better).



1.) Tulo 2.) Andrus 3.) Reyes 3.) Hardy 5.) Simmons 6.) Castro 7.) A-Cab 8.) Han-Ram 9.) A-Cab 10.) Lowrie/AEscobar/Peralta

Also, I don't think you can really say 'objectively' lol.



Okay, that's fair, I just don't agree, simply enough.

Alright heres some data for you about each SS you have listed up there, Reyes has a high BABIP of .353 had a walk rate of 7% in his career year and and a career high ISO of .156 and that was way above his average. LOL at Hardy, ya I'll take that career 5% walk rate with a 15% K rate. (sounds like Castro a little.) Well he only hits .230-.240 with a OBP barely over .300. 22 bombs is impressive but Castro hit 14 and he stol 20 + more bases. Simmons has been up for not even a year and has hit .260 and has a .88 ISO. Yikes dude might want to consider changing that ranking, even if his defense is one of the best at SS. Castro's UZR last year was better than Furcal, Reyes, A Cab, and Mr. Jeter. O did I not mention he's younger than every player mentioned including Simmons who made his debut 2 years older than the age at which Castro made his. I rest my case that he is a top 3 SS in baseball right now

[ubernoob]

Using ISO as a baseline stat. Come now, at least use a less flawed stat.

Castro is good and has potential but he's not "top 3 SS" in the league.

If building a team would I take him? Yes but that is based more on age than anything else.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

And you know this how, pray tell?

Aging curve? You've heard of that? If I were to say Bryce Harper's peak years are ahead of him, would that be a question? So why is it for a 23-year-old showing improvements every year?

For the record; 2012 Jeter wRC+ - 117. That's higher than anything Castro has ever done and it's not actually his best season. About the same with A-Cab.

Jeter's actually gotta be on the field to post a wRC+ or any other stats for that matter. Jeter is a DH playing SS. And c'mon Jeter's had an unsustainable .350+ babip his whole career How's he gonna keep that up? If you're taking the soon-to-be-39-year-old-who-can't-get-on-the-field over the talented 23 year old, again I really don't know what to say to you.

Oh my Jeebus, hits isn't the only thing a player can contribute to a baseball team. This is pre-moneyball thinking here lol.

And only someone wayyy to into new age stuff will discount hits of all things...in baseball of all things. There is still the basic component of hitting the baseball, and that still matters.

Also, defense peaks early (which is bad for Castro's defense), as does batspeed (but later). And when you're trying to throw out an entire set of statistics to prove your point then I just dunno what to say.

Well, to your UZR, I say what about Castro being 1st in total chances, putouts, and assists over the past 2 seasons. That would mean he's accounted for the most defensive outs in baseball at the most premium defensive position. And even sabermetricians will acknowledge the importance of outs in baseball still (if not hits anyway). What about him having the best range factor at SS last year? Could that possibly be chance or could he be improving? What about him being 2nd in DPs turned last year? And the eye test is still just as valid as stats for defense. There is still a human scouting component in the game you know, it's not all "advanced metrics." You can easily see range watching a game, while defensive stats don't take into account pitchers, shifts, spray charts, outs made vs outs given up (errors) etc...Fielding stats are still up and coming.

Bottom line though, if any stat indicates Castro's defense is bad because of his range, it's a total garbage statistic. His defense can be considered poor for other reasons, range is definitely NOT one of them.


Huh, you actually acknowledged defense. Yay. And Castro has more power but that doesn't mean he has power period.

Last I checked, in the post-roid age, 15-ish homers is pretty darned good for a SS. Especially one who's shown increased HRs every year of his short career so far. Most project a 25-30 HR ceiling. If he can get to 25, that's power, no? 30 is a bit high. Lone gone are the days of A-Roid/Han-Ram/Nomar/Tejada with 30-40 HR seasons at SS. Most of those guys (if not all of them) have been/will be implicated for juicing.

Castro has the higher ceiling, I'm saying that he's not better RIGHT NOW lol. So that's fairly irrelevant now, no?

Since when is ceiling irrelevant? Are you passing up Bryce Harper because he only hit .250-ish last year? When ranking who's better, at least some attention has to be paid to who you'd rather build around/who has room to improve.

Oh, and I can't explain these because I actually really have to run, but here are their plate discipline numbers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

Castro's not a better contact hitter (he's decent but Andrus is better).

Fair enough. Was going off of memory. Stats show Andrus is slightly better. Didn't check your links but, K-rate, contact %, swinging strike, line drive % are all better for Andrus. However, he has yet to have a 200-hit season...

1.) Tulo 2.) Andrus 3.) Reyes 3.) Hardy 5.) Simmons 6.) Castro 7.) A-Cab 8.) Han-Ram 9.) A-Cab 10.) Lowrie/AEscobar/Peralta

Also, I don't think you can really say 'objectively' lol.

You either. Is that an injured Blue Jay in the top 3? At least we agree on the top 2, lol. Loving that A-Cab holds 2 spots on your top 10 (kidding, obviously a typo)

Responses in bold. BTW, this is probably the "hottest" debate of the thread so far.

[hradekbr]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Using ISO as a baseline stat. Come now, at least use a less flawed stat.

Castro is good and has potential but he's not "top 3 SS" in the league.

If building a team would I take him? Yes but that is based more on age than anything else.

Ok then what stat would you use....

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Alright heres some data for you about each SS you have listed up there, Reyes has a high BABIP of .353 had a walk rate of 7% in his career year and and a career high ISO of .156 and that was way above his average. LOL at Hardy, ya I'll take that career 5% walk rate with a 15% K rate. (sounds like Castro a little.) Well he only hits .230-.240 with a OBP barely over .300. 22 [HRs] is impressive but Castro hit 14 and he stole 20 + more bases. Simmons has been up for not even a year and has hit .260 [BA] and has a .88 ISO. Yikes dude might want to consider changing that ranking, even if his defense is one of the best at SS. Castro's UZR last year was better than Furcal, Reyes, A Cab, and Mr. Jeter. O did I not mention he's younger than every player mentioned including Simmons who made his debut 2 years older than the age at which Castro made his. I rest my case that he is a top 3 SS in baseball right now

Using ISO as a baseline stat. Come now, at least use a less flawed stat.

Castro is good and has potential but he's not "top 3 SS" in the league.

If building a team would I take him? Yes but that is based more on age than anything else.

If the quoted post is what you're referring to...it looks like he also considered K rate, BB rate, OBP, BABIP, HRs, SBs, UZR. Not really sure why one would seize on only ISO of all things there..

[hradekbr]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

If the quoted post is what you're referring to...it looks like he also considered K rate, BB rate, OBP, BABIP, HRs, SBs, UZR. Not really sure why one would seize on only ISO of all things there..

Exactly and I only used ISO for Simmons because he's only been up for a year if that. I mean I could be unfair and use HR for him but I didn't, and idk why he thinks the stat is flawed in the first place....

[ubernoob]

If the quoted post is what you're referring to...it looks like he also considered K rate, BB rate, OBP, BABIP, HRs, SBs, UZR. Not really sure why one would seize on only ISO of all things there..

His knock on Reyes was ISO, which is flawed. Hell, plenty of baseball stats see flawed (SLG is, which is why iso is.) That's also why you see all these new age stats.

I was speaking specifically to the Reyes comparison, though with comparing Castro to everyone else you can't cherry pick what stats to use for each comparison - you have to use the same criteria to judge everyone, otherwise I'm sure I could find some obscure stat that shows Jean Segura as the best SS using that criteria.

I'm not arguing against anyone, necessarily - I like Castro. He's not quite top SS material for me yet, but the potential is there.

[hawks223]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Castro is easily one of the most overrated players in baseball. Alot of it has to do with he plays for the Cubs, and the fans are pretty delusional about all the guys on that team.

He's a air head on defense, and he will never hit .300 as long as he keeps trying to hit it out of the park. He's a gap hitter, and thats all he will ever be. He's also not all that great on the base paths.

[statdude]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I've been watching this debate for a bit and I have to say that isn't in the top 3 SS in the league, but I would solidly put him in that next teir of shorstops. He is probably one of the main guys that I would pick to be a cornerstone of my team at SS behind only Tulo and Machado which is where his value is from. I think his average sustainable and his power will come to where he'll hit 20 HRs in his best years. Yes, his defense isn't good at a very defensively dependent position, but I still see him swinging the bat enough to overlook at least some of his defensive liabilities. If you're going to say that Castro<Jeter, I'd think you're going crazy. And the Castro v. Reyes debate is very close as well. The injury bug has plagued Reyes the last couple of years and that makes it a lot closer.

If I had to rank the SS's as of now, it would go:
1)Tulo, 2)Andrus, 3)Reyes, 4)Castro, 5)Simmons, 6)Hardy, 7)Aybar, 8)Escobar, 9)A-Cab, 10)Han-Ram

However, value wise of who I'd want to start a franchise, I'd go with:
1)Tulo, 2)Machado, 3)Castro, 4)Andrus, 5)Profar, 6)Simmons, 7)Segura

To me, Castro is a top 5 right now but based off of what he's done at such a young age, I'd have to rank him in the top 3 value wise at SS. Going back to the trade of Castro for Taveras, I wouldn't do it as the Cubs. You have a young SS who you know can hit and hit well for a guy who can hit according to scouting reports. Maybe in a few years their values will change, but as of now, Castro>Taveras

[hradekbr]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Castro is easily one of the most overrated players in baseball. Alot of it has to do with he plays for the Cubs, and the fans are pretty delusional about all the guys on that team.

He's a air head on defense, and he will never hit .300 as long as he keeps trying to hit it out of the park. He's a gap hitter, and thats all he will ever be. He's also not all that great on the base paths.

First of all check your facts before you even make a comment because he's hit .300 twice before in his career......

[Totte]

How do we, in general, value Kaleb Cowart of the Angels? A low B?