first pitch meatballs....bug?

[nemesis04]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

I agree.

Ill do some analysis for each first pitch of an inning, and the first pitch of every AB to boot.

There is absolutely something to this, but we need to document more evidence, as you suggest.

If everyone gets on a unified front with good examples the issue could get some traction. Right now many are arguing on what the issue actually is. I will keep track of a few games myself just to look for trends, I play on the higher levels.

[jmik58]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Im going to disagree, in a bad way, bare with me...

I thought, before seeing this thread, that the first pitch strike %age was way too high, i then read this and thought ill do some analysis on my next game.

I was the Nats @ Dodgers, Billingsley was on the hill for them, heres his entire first pitch of each AB result for 7 innings (had to go out then).



A total of 87% first pitch strikes, way too high, and more worryingly, just look how many are meatballs, right down the pipe.

Of the 23 pitches he threw, 18 of which were fastballs (either 4s or 2s), thats 78%, of those just look how many were fat and down the pipe.

As you can see i took some pitches, swung at some, (as taking all pitches is fruitless and proves nothing as of course the CPU will just throw first pitch strikes all the time if you never swing). My hitting results were very poor as it happens, everything found a fielder, but thats beside the point.

I am going to record more data from my next few games, but from what i can see, the issue is this...

The CPU pitcher throws first pitch strike meatballs, mainly fastballs, in the great majority of at bats.

This to me is a problem, a fairly big one, whether it can be rectified by sliders i dont know.

I played on default HOF, so this is NOT an issue of playing on a low level and the game trying to make it easier for me.

Im really not sure what to make of this.

dkrause, you are saying that it is the first pitch of an inning, my feelings and initial data is showing it is the first pitch of EVERY at bat, on the whole, with the odd misnomer.

What to do folks?

Just playing devil's advocate here, but you got zero hits on the first pitch through seven innings. If you're not getting a hit, why would the pitcher throw anything else? From a logic stand point, if I can get away with throwing strikes (especially fastballs) on the first pitch of an at-bat, I'm doing it every time.

Goal number one of a pitcher is to establish his #1 and to get ahead in the count. This means throwing a fastball (or the #1) on the first pitch a vast majority of the time. In the lower levels (AA and AAA) you're going to see more meatballs because those players have poor attributes.

I "see" what everyone is pointing out. But I think many are missing the point -- this is how baseball is played.

[orion523]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

The first pitch of an inning is an absolute issue, #1 pitch every time right down broadway, it even happens in batting practice. Afterwords however things regulate in exhibition mode to a more normal 60% or so. I'm completely on board however with the first pitch of an inning.

[TBone012984]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

So I played a little more last night....


In 20 games (HOF, Zone Hitting):

.495 10 HR 43 RBI

95ABs 15Ks Zero BBs

This is getting ridiculous... Might have to grab MLB11/12 and bring those back! This meatball stuff is redic... I'm TRYING to draw walks too! They just keep throwing them right there...

[bobtrain]

Just playing devil's advocate here, but you got zero hits on the first pitch through seven innings. If you're not getting a hit, why would the pitcher throw anything else? From a logic stand point, if I can get away with throwing strikes (especially fastballs) on the first pitch of an at-bat, I'm doing it every time.

Goal number one of a pitcher is to establish his #1 and to get ahead in the count. This means throwing a fastball (or the #1) on the first pitch a vast majority of the time. In the lower levels (AA and AAA) you're going to see more meatballs because those players have poor attributes.

I "see" what everyone is pointing out. But I think many are missing the point -- this is how baseball is played.

Sorry, I respectfully disagree with the notion that is how baseball is played. I played the game and was the beat reporter for the Minnesota Gopher baseball team. A team that produced Dave Windfield and Paul Molitor.

Windfield was actually a pitcher for the Gophers back in the day and when I had the chance to talk with him, he always told me that you try to establish your #1 pitch early. You don't always hit the strike zone with it, but that's the goal. Later on you try to get command of your other pitches to mix it up and because your batter has seen your #1 pitch.

I'll start posting my results as well because like most I want this game to replicate the actual game.

[PsychoBulk]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Just playing devil's advocate here, but you got zero hits on the first pitch through seven innings. If you're not getting a hit, why would the pitcher throw anything else? From a logic stand point, if I can get away with throwing strikes (especially fastballs) on the first pitch of an at-bat, I'm doing it every time.

Goal number one of a pitcher is to establish his #1 and to get ahead in the count. This means throwing a fastball (or the #1) on the first pitch a vast majority of the time. In the lower levels (AA and AAA) you're going to see more meatballs because those players have poor attributes.

I "see" what everyone is pointing out. But I think many are missing the point -- this is how baseball is played.

You make a fair point, the CPU pitcher may well think "well, even though im throwing lots of meaty first pitch heaters, hes not getting hits off of them, so ill keep throwing them", absolutely, could be something to that, ill be interested to see if it changes tack when i do get some hits off them.

As for the "way baseball is played", yes i think we all understand that, but it should not result in issues like this, and especially a guaranteed fastball down the pipe on EVERY first pitch of an inning.

Definately more investigation required.

[jmik58]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Sorry, I respectfully disagree with the notion that is how baseball is played. I played the game and was the beat reporter for the Minnesota Gopher baseball team. A team that produced Dave Windfield and Paul Molitor.

Windfield was actually a pitcher for the Gophers back in the day and when I had the chance to talk with him, he always told me that you try to establish your #1 pitch early. You don't always hit the strike zone with it, but that's the goal. Later on you try to get command of your other pitches to mix it up and because your batter has seen your #1 pitch.

I'll start posting my results as well because like most I want this game to replicate the actual game.

I'm not sure I see the disagreement. Establish your #1 first and try to throw strikes. We both said that.

[Bobhead]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Thank you PsychoBulk, for actually posting a definitive and clear observation.

~80% is indeed high, but what was your batting average on those pitches? It's not enough to just mindlessly swing at them. If the pitcher sees you struggling to connect with quality hits, he's likely to throw more.

Just something to think about if you run another game.

[bobtrain]

I'm not sure I see the disagreement. Establish your #1 first and try to throw strikes. We both said that.

Problem being that how many pitchers at the AA and AAA level don't have command to throw right down the middle successfully 100% of the time? I've seen pitchers try to throw their #1 and throw it in the dirt. That's why the baseball metrics don't lie. Batters see on average 58% first pitch strikes.

[jmik58]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

You make a fair point, the CPU pitcher may well think "well, even though im throwing lots of meaty first pitch heaters, hes not getting hits off of them, so ill keep throwing them", absolutely, could be something to that, ill be interested to see if it changes tack when i do get some hits off them.

As for the "way baseball is played", yes i think we all understand that, but it should not result in issues like this, and especially a guaranteed fastball down the pipe on EVERY first pitch of an inning.

Definately more investigation required.

When I see a word like "every" or "always" there has to be some serious empirical evidence to back it up. I'm not picking on you, by the way, but the various arguments going around have to do with something not only happening too frequently, but that it's "always" happening.

I tested this out in multiple games and am just not seeing the problem. Even in the first-pitch spray chart you showed, there weren't that many meat balls in my opinion 1/4 or 1/5 of the pitches were down the pipe.

Someone or multiple people need to show real life stats versus what is happening in the game and then we can see if it's significant. We all notice things that are a little bit off because it's a video game and we have to balance the "fun" with the "realism," but I think the argument will be easier to test if we're checking for an imbalance as opposed to an all-the-time issue.

[dkrause1971]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Thank you PsychoBulk, for actually posting a definitive and clear observation.

~80% is indeed high, but what was your batting average on those pitches? It's not enough to just mindlessly swing at them. If the pitcher sees you struggling to connect with quality hits, he's likely to throw more.

Just something to think about if you run another game.

This is why i actually think the sim ahead method is better. Your skipping building a tendency with the other hitters between the first pitch of the inning. I am generally swinging at these encounters just encase the cpu is building a tendency based only on that 1 encounter per inning. Since i can typically crush it, it should stop them from meatballing it so often if a tendency was building.

[jmik58]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Problem being that how many pitchers at the AA and AAA level don't have command to throw right down the middle successfully 100% of the time? I've seen pitchers try to throw their #1 and throw it in the dirt. That's why the baseball metrics don't lie. Batters see on average 58% first pitch strikes.

Where is the evidence that AA and AAA pitchers throw 100% first-pitch strikes in the show? In real life, pitchers with less skill miss the zone or their target a lot. In video games when they "miss" or "mess up" it often times cues up a meat pitch.

Again, it helps to think of this in terms of how video games are made. The fun-factor versus the realism-factor. Also, when a pitcher screws up in a video game, a lot of times that "screw up" puts the pitch down the middle as opposed to outside (at least that's my observation).

[bobtrain]

Where is the evidence that AA and AAA pitchers throw 100% first-pitch strikes in the show? In real life, pitchers with less skill miss the zone or their target a lot. In video games when they "miss" or "mess up" it often times cues up a meat pitch.

Again, it helps to think of this in terms of how video games are made. The fun-factor versus the realism-factor. Also, when a pitcher screws up in a video game, a lot of times that "screw up" puts the pitch down the middle as opposed to outside (at least that's my observation).

Then why does the game claim to be "as true to baseball as possible" sorry don't buy it. If we wanted arcade The Bigs would outsell this game.

[jmik58]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

Then why does the game claim to be "as true to baseball as possible" sorry don't buy it. If we wanted arcade The Bigs would outsell this game.

The Show (other than the 2K basketball games) is as close to the real life thing as I've ever seen in a video game. My main focus on any video game is the gameplay itself and I have several gripes with all the games I play (including The Show) but I don't see anything that turns my experience into an arcade one. No one else has to feel that way, of course, as we all come with different perspectivs.

But just as you were a beat writer for the Gophers, I have several years of playing and coaching experience so we both feel we know what "real" is and then there is a picture of what we expect it to look like in a game.

I may very well see this first-pitch thing as an issue at some point, but I haven't experienced it yet. Nor have I seen any proof besides others saying they experience it. Even the spray chart wasn't significant in my opinion, but that is just my interpretation.

[ajb3313]

Re: first pitch meatballs....bug?

As a general rule -- because I tend to be a free swinger -- I take almost every first pitch. I'll actually sit the controller down in front of me to fight the instinct to swing away if I have to.

Having said that, I haven't noticed this issue. I'd say it's probably close to 50/50 whether I end up starting an at-bat down 0-1 or up 1-0. The CPU might adjust their approach if I were to start being aggressive on the first pitch, I don't know. But I'd have noticed if I were digging myself an 0-1 hole by not swinging, and that certainly hasn't happened.