Unrealistic stats continuing

[mistertony25]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Are the odds in our favor for a patch to address this? I actually plan on getting into the 2020 season, so this is making me nervous.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

This was in June and Kmibrel should not have a 4.15 ERA in June--have you seen that in real baseball from him? He has 13 saves and 3 blown saves, so at least 16 appearances. Tyler Colvin has 8 Assists in June. AJ Ellis is hitting .353 in June. Let me know when Kimbrel is struggling in June with an ERA over 4.

There will always be performance variations.

Look at how Mike Trout is doing so far this year. Did you expect that mediocrity from him after the last season? I bet you didn't... it happens all the time.

Tyler Colvin with 8 assists in June? Really?! Check his arm ratings in OSFM. Like I said before, let me know when Kimbrel has an ERA over 4 in June. When it happens, then you can say whatever, until then, I say whatever.

[nomo17k]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Tyler Colvin with 8 assists in June? Really?! Check his arm ratings in OSFM. Like I said before, let me know when Kimbrel has an ERA over 4 in June. When it happens, then you can say whatever, until then, I say whatever.

What do you say about Trout then? You are cherry picking evidence for your favor.

You can say whatever, but your point is off topic as well. We are discussing progression anomaly in this thread.

[xNobleEaglex]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I'm a Braves fan, so I'd be the first to say that Kimbrel is ridiculous, but considering relief pitchers pitch no where near the number of innings that starters pitch, relievers are only a couple bad outings away from a 4+ ERA, especially early in the season. Look at Jonny Venters. Venters finished 2010 with a 1.95 ERA and 2011 with a 1.84 ERA. He was absolutely dominant, and when Billy Wagner retired, there was actually some debate as to whether Venters should be the closer instead of Kimbrel (as good as Jonny has been, aren't all Braves fans glad they went with Kimbrel!). Last year however, his ERA before the All-Star break was 4.45, and it took an ERA of 1.71 after the All-Star break to end the season with a 3.22 ERA. Someone else mentioned a stretch that Mariano Rivera went through too. Anomalies can happen, even to the best pitchers.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

What do you say about Trout then? You are cherry picking evidence for your favor.

You can say whatever, but your point is off topic as well. We are discussing progression anomaly in this thread.

Trout is not Kimbrel. Kimbrel has a track record and Trout did it as a rookie. By the way, I am talking season 2013.

Also, I don't see Trout doing all that bad considering what Pujols and Hamilton are doing, especially in light of their salary comparisons. But, the conversation is about Kimbrel and, lest you forgot, Colvin.

[birdmann]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

So what is the best way to control the offensive onslaught in the later years? And how well does said method work?

[Steven78]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Kimbrel 2 out 3 blown saves in real life. Glitch!!!

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Kimbrel 2 out 3 blown saves in real life. Glitch!!!

Yes, but his ERA is not over 4.

Saves and blown saves was never the discussion.

[kpkpkp]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I want to start off by taking back the negative things I said about the sim engine being "absurd" in MLB The Show.

OK, so I did some simming with a franchise where I set everything to auto, and simmed ahead 10 years to see what would happen with player progression, and league leaders stat averages. I used official SCEA rosters, I have patches 1.18 and 1.21 installed, and skipped spring training to save time. (this took 2 hours, lol)

Every 2 or so years I wrote down the league's leading top 25 guys in these categories:

Batting Ave, HR's, RBI's, ERA, Strikeouts, and Wins.

I wanted to see how bad this "offensive explosion" in the game I read about was, which as a die-hard sim guy, was concerning to me. I wanted to compare it versus real life averages. In real life over the last few years the top 25 guys' stats breakdown as I have listed below. (I organized my little lists as follows; for batting ave the league leader in real life is usually around a .340, and the 25th ranked guy is usually around .300 so I wrote .300-.340 should be expected in addition to occasional out-layers.. I took my numbers from ESPN's official MLB stats over the last several years and averaged them.)

REAL LIFE
Ave) .300-.340
RBI's) 95-135
HR's) 30-50
ERA) 2.25-3.50
Wins) 15-20
K's) 180-220

OK, here is what happened when I simmed each season in the game.

SEASON 1
Ave).291-.328
RBI's) 95-135
HR's) 31-44
ERA) 2.30-3.25
Wins) 13-19
K's) 181-240

So.. season one was definitely within a realistic range for what we would expect Vs. real life. Here is what happened as time went on.

SEASON 3
Ave).295-.337
RBI's) 91-136
HR's) 28-50
ERA) 2.60-3.50
Wins) 13-19
K's) 170-235

SEASON 5
Ave).299-.328
RBI's) 100-135
HR's) 30-49
ERA) 2.20-3.80
Wins) 13-19
K's) 172-266

SEASON 7
Ave).304-.341
RBI's) 106-153
HR's) 30-45
ERA) 2.80-4.09
Wins) 13-19
K's) 179-238

SEASON 10
Ave).302-.343
RBI's) 104-146
HR's) 29-42
ERA) 3.30-4.31
Wins) 13-19
K's) 176-247

Generally things stayed pretty realistic except for ERA and RBI's Past the 6th or 7th season, ERA's across the league were chronically high by about 0.50+ERA on average over real life. RBI's were generally 10 higher per guy on average for league leaders as well. There were a lot more league leaders hitting 140 total RBI's then there should be, and getting an ERA 2.99 or lower became almost non-existent.

But that's not too bad if you ask me, especially after being stuck playin only MLB 2K's sports' on my 360 until I bought a refurbed PS3 this year, lol.

In general for a complicated sim, the results were pretty good over all... There is just a slight tilt towards offense and it compounds as each year as time goes by. But only a little. So even if you take a RTTS or franchise 10+ years in, most likely things will be realistic except for a small increase in league-wide ERA's and RBI's. By year 20 things might start to get a little exaggerated. But 20 years before major un-stability is decent enough for me to enjoy the game.

Also all the talk I saw on the ShowNation website about K's being too low must have been fixed in the one of the 2 last patches, because to me K's seemed perfectly fine.

What I did see.... was a LOT MORE PLAYERS RATED 90+ OVERALL over time.

It was significant. Every couple of years I counted how many players were rated 90 or higher, starting with SCEA's default roster.

Year 1- 109 pitchers and hitters rated 90 or higher in default roster.
Year 2- 113 rated 90+
Year 3- 136 rated 90+
Year 5- 138 rated 90+
Year 7- 171 rated 90+
Year 10-203 rated 90+

After year 5 the number of guys rated 90 OVR or higher really takes off. By year 10 they had almost doubled!

There were a ton of potential A and B players all the way down to single-A ball as well. I mean like my team was almost all A and B, some C's a couple D's and no F's. It was crazy.

There were just a ton of highly rated guys. But the balance of pitcher to hitters maintained a constant ratio so stats came out close enough to real life anyway. So its not as if the influx of A or B rated guys favor hitters or pitchers, so stats remained balanced generally. It was just weird how many 90+ and A or B potential guys there were.

FWIW, I had several "A rated" guys who never progressed and just hung around the minors. So I suppose all of these A rates guys don't really pan out. I don't know why its set up this way. Its almost as if most draft picks taken are A or B, but only 2/3's of them will truly pan-out to be A or B.

I guess you need good scouts...

All in all I'm satisfied. Sure some things are off and a bizarre increase and A and B potential ratings... but nothing game-breaking.

[Steven78]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I don't think you understand how quickly a closers ERA can baloon. Kimbrel has pitched 11 innings all year a couple runs here or there he will have an ERA at 4+.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I don't think you understand how quickly a closers ERA can baloon. Kimbrel has pitched 11 innings all year a couple runs here or there he will have an ERA at 4+.

Meanwhile, Kimbrel has never had an ERA over 4. Seems nobody wants to talk about Colvin and his 8 assists with season 2013 just in first week of June.

[Tweeg]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Meanwhile, Kimbrel has never had an ERA over 4. Seems nobody wants to talk about Colvin and his 8 assists with season 2013 just in first week of June.

Please...please shut up about Kimbrel having an ERA over 4 through the first 3 months of a season. Even if he finishes the year with an ERA over 4, dudes are allowed to have bad years. Last year Huston Street's ERA was 1.85. Coincidentally, some guys are going to have anomalous years in a positive direction.

You are kinda making me hate real life Craig Kimbrel.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Please...please shut up about Kimbrel having an ERA over 4 through the first 3 months of a season. Even if he finishes the year with an ERA over 4, dudes are allowed to have bad years. Last year Huston Street's ERA was 1.85. Coincidentally, some guys are going to have anomalous years in a positive direction.

You are kinda making me hate real life Craig Kimbrel.

Hey, I'm expressing an opinion, and I do so without talking trash to others, like telling someone to shut up.

[Tweeg]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Hey, I'm expressing an opinion, and I do so without talking trash to others, like telling someone to shut up.

I'm not talking trash. Constantly bringing up this supposed anomaly of a closer with an ERA over 4.00 in June is adding nothing to the conversation.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I'm not talking trash. Constantly bringing up this supposed anomaly of a closer with an ERA over 4.00 in June is adding nothing to the conversation.

I only "bring it up" in reply to those who question it, you know, like in replying. I guess you can say it's like having an opinion and responding to those who "bring up" the opposite view.