Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Looks solid, I think I may start inputting those...

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

How long you think is going to take you complete all the way to V3, cause Im waiting all the way to start my franchise.........


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It'll probably be at least 2 weeks.

[seanjeezy]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Quick question for Dan - How are the updated ZiPS projections calculated and how often are they updated? I noticed that the pre-season projection had Justin Smoak playing in only 80 something games, that number has since been adjusted to around 130. How does such a big change occur?

[steven]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Here is an attached file to Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters Version 1.0

OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters 1.0: ( Click PS3 Zip Link Below )

PS3.zip

[DSzymborski]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Quick question for Dan - How are the updated ZiPS projections calculated and how often are they updated? I noticed that the pre-season projection had Justin Smoak playing in only 80 something games, that number has since been adjusted to around 130. How does such a big change occur?

Ah, I think you're getting the Fangraphs columns confused, perhaps? ZiPS (R) is rest-of-season projection, ZiPS (U) is the updated (real + rest of season). ZiPS had Smoak at 124 games going into the year.

The in-season model regresses the projection towards the new real-life stats based on the sample sizes of the new stats, with certain stats regressing differently (for example, changes in walk and strikeout rate are significant far earlier than changes in BA). Fangraphs scripts update every morning at 6 AM or so. I have more rigorous models at my disposal (my team projections involve a lot of linear algebra), but that's a little unwieldy and inflexible for quick, instant updates.

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Ah, I think you're getting the Fangraphs columns confused, perhaps? ZiPS (R) is rest-of-season projection, ZiPS (U) is the updated (real + rest of season). ZiPS had Smoak at 124 games going into the year.

The in-season model regresses the projection towards the new real-life stats based on the sample sizes of the new stats, with certain stats regressing differently (for example, changes in walk and strikeout rate are significant far earlier than changes in BA). Fangraphs scripts update every morning at 6 AM or so. I have more rigorous models at my disposal (my team projections involve a lot of linear algebra), but that's a little unwieldy and inflexible for quick, instant updates.

Do you have any intentions of releasing an ZiPS (U) spreadsheet?

[seanjeezy]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Ah, I think you're getting the Fangraphs columns confused, perhaps? ZiPS (R) is rest-of-season projection, ZiPS (U) is the updated (real + rest of season). ZiPS had Smoak at 124 games going into the year.

The in-season model regresses the projection towards the new real-life stats based on the sample sizes of the new stats, with certain stats regressing differently (for example, changes in walk and strikeout rate are significant far earlier than changes in BA). Fangraphs scripts update every morning at 6 AM or so. I have more rigorous models at my disposal (my team projections involve a lot of linear algebra), but that's a little unwieldy and inflexible for quick, instant updates.

yeah I got them confused, to view the original projection I click on the projections tab I'm assuming. Thank you for thoroughly explaining, my statistical and analytical baseball knowledge just grew!

[The Kid 24]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Pujols 83 76 73 99 (in last 3 seasons has a homer every 12.8 PA vs lefties)
Hamilton 99 75 83 81
Kemp 73 98 70 81
A Roid 76 62 70 61 (still can hit for contact but is losing some power)
Cabrera 97 91 82 59 (only hits a homer every 31.5 PA vs lefties)

Aren't the HR #'s gonna be insanely high again like they were with DM's calculator? I thought Rascoc's calculator was perfect when it came to sim stats?

Also how many years is the calculator based off? Because if you look at Miguel Cabrera's sheet... You will see he has over 1500 PAs on there.

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

I did find out how to make a drop down excel box for player names...

Edit: this makes editing so much faster as long as I have all the stats compiled, i've can pretty much do 1 ML active roster (batters only) in around 10 minutes.

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Aren't the HR #'s gonna be insanely high again like they were with DM's calculator? I thought Rascoc's calculator was perfect when it came to sim stats?

Also how many years is the calculator based off? Because if you look at Miguel Cabrera's sheet... You will see he has over 1500 PAs on there.

Think about it, all those guys are big power hitters, for the most part, the #'s are realistic...here's Texas

Hamilton 83/81
Young 45/44
Kinsler 60/65
Napoli 83/86
Beltre 63/62
Cruz 78/73
Murphy 53/47
Moreland 54/47
Andrus 30/27
Gonzalez 28/32
Gentry 32/35

[The Kid 24]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Think about it, all those guys are big power hitters, for the most part, the #'s are realistic...here's Texas

Hamilton 83/81
Young 45/44
Kinsler 60/65
Napoli 83/86
Beltre 63/62
Cruz 78/73
Murphy 53/47
Moreland 54/47
Andrus 30/27
Gonzalez 28/32
Gentry 32/35

I just compared these #'s to Rascoc's and there similar for the most part... I'm just gonna stick with Rascoc's unless the #'s between the players are drastic.

[Scrapps]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

First off, I would like to thank Scott, Sean, & and all others involved in this project. They really do add alot to game.

Quick question. If I were to start a franchise with the rosters that were posted to vault yesterday, would I have any issues? Would you suggest I wait for revisions? Thanks again.

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

First off, I would like to thank Scott, Sean, & and all others involved in this project. They really do add alot to game.

Quick question. If I were to start a franchise with the rosters that were posted to vault yesterday, would I have any issues? Would you suggest I wait for revisions? Thanks again.

You need to edit AJ Burnett's #'s, if you look in this thread, you'll find it...Also, I accidently left Twins RF Lance Ray in ML when he should be in AA or A, you could call up another OF like Joe Benson or Darin Mastroianni and on DET send down LF Jeff Frazier to AAA and call up SS Danny Worth. Keep in mind, there are only 25 men on the 40 man.

[TheGame8544]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Glad you like it. I have now updated it. It is much better than before now. I have included the updated ZiPS from fangraphs. The update only includes players with MLB time this year I think. It has less players I know that. So what I did was left the original splits and added the updates.

So now there are two calculators. One is for players with MLB time (that are listed on the ZiPS Update) and the other is for the original ZiPS Projections. Both should get the same contact and power ratings though.

I have increased some of the ratings due to some sims I have been running in franchise. Compared to real life, the numbers seem a bit too low. I didn't increase them much. Each rating went up maybe 3-5 points. Ratings I edited were contact, power, discipline, and vision.

[TheGame8544]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

On second thought, dial back the power rating. Just ran a sim with the new numbers and power numbers got a tad inflated. They were perfect before. In the formula, change 0.86 to 0.82.