Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Scott, can you just give me a quick response on everything that is included in this roster? The first post didn't have it and I'm exhausted. If it's not too much to ask...

seanjeezy pitch edits
rascoc ZiPS projections
most accurate minor league systems (i actually looked up every single player on milb.com and made sure he was on the roster, so it's very accurate.)
all teams have at least 3 closers (went through AAA & AA and looked up guys with the highest amount of saves and changed them)

[seanjeezy]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Weird because when I punch in Jones numbers I get:

Contact R:92
Contact L:84
Power R:85
Power L:99
Disc:47
Vis:57

I'm using Bahnzo's formulas as well...

And those are using the updated Zips projections? For Jones I got (R/L)

82/75
65/78
50 Vision
48 Discipline

You are manually using the formulas, not the calc correct? Maybe the formulas were changed?

[authentic]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

seanjeezy pitch edits
rascoc ZiPS projections
most accurate minor league systems (i actually looked up every single player on milb.com and made sure he was on the roster, so it's very accurate.)
all teams have at least 3 closers (went through AAA & AA and looked up guys with the highest amount of saves and changed them)

What about Minor League player ratings? Did you just adjust some or the majority of them. I am leaning towards using these, even though I like Opening Day rosters more for Franchise. I glanced at them and really liked them.

My main thing I saw was that Mike MacDougle was rated as the Cubs highest reliever.

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

What about Minor League player ratings? Did you just adjust some or the majority of them. I am leaning towards using these, even though I like Opening Day rosters more for Franchise. I glanced at them and really liked them.

My main thing I saw was that Mike MacDougle was rated as the Cubs highest reliever.

All of the changes are based on the ZiPS projected, they pretty much include anyone who has a shot at playing during the season. Keep in mind just because a player is rated above them it doesn't make them the better player...

Take Oakland for example, at 1B Chris Carter is rated higher than Daric Barton. I would never start Carter over Barton though. I've already complied stats for Contact R, Contact L, Power R, Power L, Vision, Discipline, H/9, HR/9, SO/9, BB/9 and will be entering it in tomorrow (or rather today)...

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

And those are using the updated Zips projections? For Jones I got (R/L)

82/75
65/78
50 Vision
48 Discipline

You are manually using the formulas, not the calc correct? Maybe the formulas were changed?

Yeah those are manually entered using formulas, not the ZiPS projections...If you have access to the formulas maybe you can pass them along to me...here's the ones I'm using...

Contact
=IF((BA/1000)<0.28,(((BA/1000)*254.315428326364)-(((0.28-(BA /1000))*254.315428326364)/0.6)),(( BA /1000)*254.315428326364)+(((( BA /1000)-0.28)*254.315428326364)*1))

Power
=IF(HR550<18,(( HR550*3.0256)+((18- HR550)*0.65)),( HR550*3.0256)-((( HR550-18)*3.0256)/1.9))

Vision
=(((((650/PA)*SO)*0.590223)+((108-((650/ PA)* SO)))*1.05)-(10-(( PA / SO)/1.5)))

Disc
=IF(((650/PA)*BB)>60,((((650/ PA)* BB)*1.205393)-((((650/ PA)* BB)-60)*0.52)),((((650/ PA)* BB)*1.205393)+((60-((650/ PA)* BB))*0.15)))

[seanjeezy]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

I just entered Adam Jones' current stats (not the ZiPS U ones) into the calc and got (R/L)

95/86
78/96
53
50

Which is more in line with the results you're getting. What I did for the ZiPS U projections (which don't have separate splits) is divide the ZiPS U projections by his current production to create a modifier that can be applied to his current splits. Using power as an example:

35(projected total) / 16 (current total) = 2.1875

5 (LH HR) * 2.1875 = 11 --> 78 power
11 (RH HR) * 2.1875 = 24 --> 65 power

Those would be over 151 and 471 AB's respectively, I adjusted the HR totals over 550 AB's and got 40 and 28, which turned into 86 (LH) and 72 (RH) using the formulas you provided, so something definitely changed, probably the frequency modifier. I'm gonna dig in Nomo's calibration thread, I seem to remember him posting some formulas in there.

Edit: I found TripleThreat's thread, its the same formulas. I'm thinking the ratings work in tandem, so somehow average, vision, and discipline are factoring into power in the calculator.

[Sergio88]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Thanks alot for the roster update, Scott much appreciated.

[Scott]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

I just entered Adam Jones' current stats (not the ZiPS U ones) into the calc and got (R/L)

95/86
78/96
53
50

Which is more in line with the results you're getting. What I did for the ZiPS U projections (which don't have separate splits) is divide the ZiPS U projections by his current production to create a modifier that can be applied to his current splits. Using power as an example:

35(projected total) / 16 (current total) = 2.1875

5 (LH HR) * 2.1875 = 11 --> 78 power
11 (RH HR) * 2.1875 = 24 --> 65 power

Those would be over 151 and 471 AB's respectively, I adjusted the HR totals over 550 AB's and got 40 and 28, which turned into 86 (LH) and 72 (RH) using the formulas you provided, so something definitely changed, probably the frequency modifier. I'm gonna dig in Nomo's calibration thread, I seem to remember him posting some formulas in there.

Edit: I found TripleThreat's thread, its the same formulas. I'm thinking the ratings work in tandem, so somehow average, vision, and discipline are factoring into power in the calculator.

Okay, just making sure they were at least close...So you think we should go by the updated ZiPS projections on FanGraphs then?

Also, where are you getting the 151 & 471 from?

[steven]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Getting ready to upload them now guys...

One thing to keep in mind, just because a player is rated higher, doesn't make them a better play.

We are Live
You can find these under ScottSFA

Name: Scott's OSFM V1.0
Description: ZiPS edits
Type: Current Rosters

Big thanks to seanjeezy and rascoc for his formula with the ZiPS projections, and of course Knight and everybody who helped out.

Hey Scott I am posting your OSFM V1.0 ZiPS edits on mediafire for those of who want to download your rosters to there USB and on to there PS3, I will post it on this thread, Thanks for the great rosters!!!

[steven]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Okay guys here are Scott's OSFM ZiPS Version 1.0, for those of you who want to download it to there USB on to there PS3.

All credit goes to Scott and many others who contributed to these rosters, Thanks for these great rosters!!

Scott's OSFM ZiPS Version 1.0 Download:

http://www.mediafire.com/?u4g9b8jxgqoix2l

[The Yurpman]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Thank you Steven for the upload!

And thanks again Scott, great roster!

[KomicJ]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

WoW ! Very interested in this...but I'm confused. Is this version still considered a WiP, or pretty much accurate enough to start a franchise with ?

[Troopershorty51]

Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

This is awesome, when do you plan on having the personal MLB tweaks finished?

[Scott]

WoW ! Very interested in this...but I'm confused. Is this version still considered a WiP, or pretty much accurate enough to start a franchise with ?

Definitely accurate enough to start a franchise with.

[Scott]

Hey Scott I am posting your OSFM V1.0 ZiPS edits on mediafire for those of who want to download your rosters to there USB and on to there PS3, I will post it on this thread, Thanks for the great rosters!!!

Thanks for posting those up.