Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

Collapse

Recommended Videos

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • TheGame8544
    MVP
    • Jul 2003
    • 1656

    #121
    Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

    Scott, let me know if this can help. It is the exact same ZiPS projections but in a much cleaner format. The calculations aren't exact, but they are pretty close to what rascoc had. Take a look.

    I did not create the calculator myself. Someone else did last year. I simply took rascoc's ZiPS projections off of his spreadsheet and copied them over. I also copied onto the sheet all of Jeezy's (I think that is who posted it) fielding ratings and made it to where they will populate on the first page of the sheet.

    It is as easy as can be. Just type in the players name and boom you get ratings.

    Heads up. I have already edited some projections for guys like Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Pujols, A-Roid, and maybe a few others. One thing I found is the projections are too low for average. It simply isn't accurate as many of the superstars are capable of hitting .330-.340 many years. So to get a more accurate projection, I take an average games played over 2009, 2010, and 2011. I take that number and divide it by the number of games played in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to get a multiplier. I then take each statistic (runs, hits, rbi's, homers, etc.) and multiply by the multiplier. Gives me extremely accurate results. On the splits page, I have been inputting their splits for the last two or three years to give me a more accurate contact and power rating.

    Check it out. I believe without a shadow of a doubt this is the best calculator out there since Bahnzo's no longer works and requires manual input. If you have any ideas on other formulas that could be added or that could be changed, please let me know.
    Attached Files

    Comment

    • Troopershorty51
      Pro
      • Sep 2010
      • 514

      #122
      Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

      How exactly does this ZiPs rating thing work? Because I'm seeing SO MANY players that are rated way too high/low

      Brad Emaus, a 2B hitting .261 in AAA is the Mets third best player, 6 spots ahead of David Wright who is having a career year but is for some reason the 9th best player on the mets.

      Also Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist are rated higher than James Shields, Matt Moore, AND David Price

      Adeiny Hechavarria, in AAA, is rated higher than Brett Lawrie

      Billy Butler, arguably the Royals best hitter is below the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jason Bourgeois, and Eric Hosmer who he's completely outplaying

      I'm not trying to come off as a jerk saying you did a terrible job because I respect all the hard work you put into this, I'm just wondering why whatever formula you are using is having results like these.

      Comment

      • Scott
        Your Go-to TV Expert
        • Jul 2002
        • 20032

        #123
        Originally posted by Troopershorty51
        How exactly does this ZiPs rating thing work? Because I'm seeing SO MANY players that are rated way too high/low

        Brad Emaus, a 2B hitting .261 in AAA is the Mets third best player, 6 spots ahead of David Wright who is having a career year but is for some reason the 9th best player on the mets.

        Also Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist are rated higher than James Shields, Matt Moore, AND David Price

        Adeiny Hechavarria, in AAA, is rated higher than Brett Lawrie

        Billy Butler, arguably the Royals best hitter is below the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jason Bourgeois, and Eric Hosmer who he's completely outplaying

        I'm not trying to come off as a jerk saying you did a terrible job because I respect all the hard work you put into this, I'm just wondering why whatever formula you are using is having results like these.
        Like I stated before, you need to look beyond the overall ratings...
        PSN-Shugarooo
        Steam-ScottM.816
        Twitch.tv/Shugarooo
        Want to follow my Franchises? Join my discord: https://discord.gg/nHbNCWmmGs

        Comment

        • seanjeezy
          The Future
          • Aug 2009
          • 3347

          #124
          Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

          Originally posted by Scott
          Okay, just making sure they were at least close...So you think we should go by the updated ZiPS projections on FanGraphs then?

          Also, where are you getting the 151 & 471 from?
          Those would be the L/R at bat totals after applying a modifier to them,

          622 / 202 = 3.0792, 49 * 3.0792 ~= 151, 153 * 3.0792 ~= 471

          Updated ZiPS is the way to go since its still a little bit early to judge performance and you'll get some skewed ratings for guys off to either a hot or cold start.
          Bakin' soda, I got bakin' soda

          Comment

          • Scott
            Your Go-to TV Expert
            • Jul 2002
            • 20032

            #125
            Originally posted by seanjeezy
            Those would be the L/R at bat totals after applying a modifier to them,

            622 / 202 = 3.0792, 49 * 3.0792 ~= 151, 153 * 3.0792 ~= 471

            Updated ZiPS is the way to go since its still a little bit early to judge performance and you'll get some skewed ratings for guys off to either a hot or cold start.
            I know what I'll be doing today
            PSN-Shugarooo
            Steam-ScottM.816
            Twitch.tv/Shugarooo
            Want to follow my Franchises? Join my discord: https://discord.gg/nHbNCWmmGs

            Comment

            • TheGame8544
              MVP
              • Jul 2003
              • 1656

              #126
              Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

              Originally posted by Troopershorty51
              How exactly does this ZiPs rating thing work? Because I'm seeing SO MANY players that are rated way too high/low

              Brad Emaus, a 2B hitting .261 in AAA is the Mets third best player, 6 spots ahead of David Wright who is having a career year but is for some reason the 9th best player on the mets.

              Also Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist are rated higher than James Shields, Matt Moore, AND David Price

              Adeiny Hechavarria, in AAA, is rated higher than Brett Lawrie

              Billy Butler, arguably the Royals best hitter is below the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jason Bourgeois, and Eric Hosmer who he's completely outplaying

              I'm not trying to come off as a jerk saying you did a terrible job because I respect all the hard work you put into this, I'm just wondering why whatever formula you are using is having results like these.
              ZiPS Projections is just that: a projection. They aren't infallible but using their statistics to create ratings is a much better way than whatever the hell SCEA comes up with to get their ratings.

              As far as certain players being rated higher, you have to look at the whole scope of the ratings. There is more than just being a good hitter that separates the 99s from the 69s. In all these cases that you mention, these players rated above some of these superstars are rated as such because they are more well rounded players. I'd just about guarantee you that in each of these cases, the player you mention as being too low has better contact and power ratings than the other players you mention.

              Now, I will agree that ZiPS Projections needs some updating. The statistics, especially the hit statistics, are a bit too low.

              Comment

              • Scott
                Your Go-to TV Expert
                • Jul 2002
                • 20032

                #127
                Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                Have any idea how to calculate for batting average?
                PSN-Shugarooo
                Steam-ScottM.816
                Twitch.tv/Shugarooo
                Want to follow my Franchises? Join my discord: https://discord.gg/nHbNCWmmGs

                Comment

                • ksig24
                  Resident Scout
                  • Feb 2006
                  • 1417

                  #128
                  Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                  Originally posted by TheGame8544
                  ZiPS Projections is just that: a projection. They aren't infallible but using their statistics to create ratings is a much better way than whatever the hell SCEA comes up with to get their ratings.

                  As far as certain players being rated higher, you have to look at the whole scope of the ratings. There is more than just being a good hitter that separates the 99s from the 69s. In all these cases that you mention, these players rated above some of these superstars are rated as such because they are more well rounded players. I'd just about guarantee you that in each of these cases, the player you mention as being too low has better contact and power ratings than the other players you mention.

                  Now, I will agree that ZiPS Projections needs some updating. The statistics, especially the hit statistics, are a bit too low.
                  Well said, people must realize that 99's across the board is not realistic.

                  Comment

                  • seanjeezy
                    The Future
                    • Aug 2009
                    • 3347

                    #129
                    Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                    Originally posted by Scott
                    Have any idea how to calculate for batting average?
                    Modified hit total / modified at bat total

                    I can help you run through some teams using the calc, we can compare those to the actual fornulas and see how they match up.
                    Bakin' soda, I got bakin' soda

                    Comment

                    • ksig24
                      Resident Scout
                      • Feb 2006
                      • 1417

                      #130
                      Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                      I want in on this also. I started my franchise last night and want to re-rate the minor leaguers. I will most likely only play one full 30 team controlled franchise season all levels, all teams.

                      Comment

                      • TheGame8544
                        MVP
                        • Jul 2003
                        • 1656

                        #131
                        Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                        Did any of you try out the ratings calculator I posted? I have now cleaned up the baserunning calculations as well as added more splits. Ratings are coming out extremely well as the calculator does an excellent job with the contact and power ratings. Here are some with the numbers in order being Con vs Right, Con vs Left, Pow vs Right, Pow vs Left:

                        Pujols 83 76 73 99 (in last 3 seasons has a homer every 12.8 PA vs lefties)
                        Hamilton 99 75 83 81
                        Kemp 73 98 70 81
                        A Roid 76 62 70 61 (still can hit for contact but is losing some power)
                        Cabrera 97 91 82 59 (only hits a homer every 31.5 PA vs lefties)

                        Comment

                        • MJHSpanda57
                          MVP
                          • Jun 2009
                          • 1071

                          #132
                          Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                          Originally posted by ksig24
                          I want in on this also. I started my franchise last night and want to re-rate the minor leaguers. I will most likely only play one full 30 team controlled franchise season all levels, all teams.
                          I'll help with the minors as well. Appearances and attributes.

                          Comment

                          • Scott
                            Your Go-to TV Expert
                            • Jul 2002
                            • 20032

                            #133
                            Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                            Originally posted by TheGame8544
                            Did any of you try out the ratings calculator I posted? I have now cleaned up the baserunning calculations as well as added more splits. Ratings are coming out extremely well as the calculator does an excellent job with the contact and power ratings. Here are some with the numbers in order being Con vs Right, Con vs Left, Pow vs Right, Pow vs Left:

                            Pujols 83 76 73 99 (in last 3 seasons has a homer every 12.8 PA vs lefties)
                            Hamilton 99 75 83 81
                            Kemp 73 98 70 81
                            A Roid 76 62 70 61 (still can hit for contact but is losing some power)
                            Cabrera 97 91 82 59 (only hits a homer every 31.5 PA vs lefties)
                            I'll check it out...
                            PSN-Shugarooo
                            Steam-ScottM.816
                            Twitch.tv/Shugarooo
                            Want to follow my Franchises? Join my discord: https://discord.gg/nHbNCWmmGs

                            Comment

                            • DSzymborski
                              Rookie
                              • Apr 2010
                              • 26

                              #134
                              Re: Scott's OSFM ZiPS Re-rated Rosters

                              Projections will *always* have a tighter range than what actually happens - projections can reflect uncertainty on how a player's true ability at a certain point (though this is a fairly abstract concept that's very difficult to pin down), but projections cannot, shouldn't, and don't, reflect the vagaries of luck around that figure.

                              Take 50 coins and flip each of them 100 times. You're going to have a lot of coins that are around 50 heads, but you're going to have some quite a ways away from 50. If you take that coin that came up heads 65 times and establish that as the baseline for that coin going forward, you're essentially saying that the coin is as likely to come up heads 80 times as it is 50 times if you repeat the experiment.

                              Obviously, players aren't coins, which is why projections going forward do change quite a bit with new data, but one has to be very careful in overestimating that change. One can make an argument, say, that 182 at-bats of .368 BA is enough to boost Hamilton's BA expectation going forward in the short-term to the .310-.320 range, but BA doesn't have the inherent predictive value necessary to start going crazy and assuming he's a .340-.350 guy, let alone a "true" .368 hitter.
                              Dan Szymborski
                              [email protected]
                              ESPN, Twitter

                              Comment

                              • sky63
                                Rookie
                                • May 2005
                                • 164

                                #135
                                Originally posted by Scott
                                It's just that i'm swamped, i've already begun doing the other edits for V2.
                                How long you think is going to take you complete all the way to V3, cause Im waiting all the way to start my franchise.........


                                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                                Comment

                                Working...