Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

[hjgilber]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Don't give up on him too quickly. He is killing the ball this spring and breaking in a new swing with less holes in it. That is basically what Rizzo had to do after his September disaster with the Padres and look how it turned out for him. Maybe last year was the wakeup call Jackson needed to get him to take some coaching and change his swing. If he can ever get his average even into the .275 range his other tools would make him a very valuable player. Maybe not an A, but a solid B.

Rizzo never had Jackson's disastrous strike out rates in the minors. I am cautiously optimistic, but this isn't the same thing at all, Jackson will likely still be a bust, or at the very least never reach close to what we had hoped.

[hjgilber]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

I figured this might be helpful to the roster maker(s). If not, no big deal, I just had some free time on my hands and thought it might be of assistance. I know I'm not 100% correct with where players will start the season, but I thought it would at least be a good starting point for discussion since the game is out (for some of us).

KEY

• Highlighted in Blue means that they are on the 40-man roster.
• Highlighted in Red means that they are non-roster invitees.
• A player in bold indicates that they need a CAP.
• BA followed by a # is the prospects ranking according to Baseball America.
• MLB.com followed by a # is the prospects ranking according to MLB.com.
• FG followed by a # is the prospects ranking according to FanGraphs.

Starting Pitchers (24 - 2 DL/5 MLB/5 AAA/5 AA/7 A)

DL Matt Garza ~ 4 weeks into regular season
MLB Jeff Samardzija
MLB Edwin Jackson
DL Scott Baker ~ 2-3 weeks into regular season
MLB Scott Feldman
MLB Travis Wood
MLB Carlos Villanueva

AAA Jason Berken
AAA Brooks Raley
AAA Chris Rusin
AAA Arodys Vizcaino BA #4/MLB.com #5/FG #6
AAA Nick Struck

AA Robert Whitenack BA #23/MLB.com #15
AA Barrett Loux BA #26
AA Austin Kirk
AA Dae-Eun Rhee
AA Dallas Beeler

A Pierce Johnson BA #6/MLB.com #7
A Dillon Maples BA #18/MLB.com #6/FG #4
A Paul Blackburn BA #16/MLB.com #17
A Duane Underwood BA #17/MLB.com #16/FG #14
A Juan Carlos Paniagua BA #11
A Marcelo Carreno
A Matt Loosen BA #27

Relief Pitchers (23 - 7 MLB/9 AAA/7 AA)

MLB Carlos Marmol
MLB James Russell
MLB Shawn Camp
MLB Michael Bowden
MLB Alberto Cabrera BA #13/MLB.com #19
MLB Kyuji Fujikawa BA #9
MLB Hector Rondon Rule 5 Draft Pick

AAA Hisanori Takahashi
AAA Rafael Dolis
AAA Casey Coleman
AAA Drew Carpenter
AAA Blake Parker
AAA Zach Putnam
AAA Cory Wade
AAA Jensen Lewis
AAA Casey Weathers

AA Trey McNutt BA #24
AA Marcos Mateo
AA Jaye Chapman
AA Dayan Diaz
AA Lendy Castillo BA #28
AA Tony Zych BA #22
AA Marcus Hatley BA #29

Catchers (7 - 2 MLB/2 AAA/2 AA/1 A)

MLB Wellington Castillo
MLB Dioner Navarro

AAA Steve Clevenger
AAA J.C. Boscan

AA Michael Brenly
AA Chad Noble

A Rafael Lopez

First Baseman (4 - 1 MLB/1 AAA/1 AA/1 A)

MLB Anthony Rizzo

AAA Brad Nelson

AA Justin Bour

A Dan Vogelbach BA #7/MLB.com #11/FG #5

Second Baseman (4 - 1 MLB/2 AAA/1 A)

MLB Darwin Barney

AAA Logan Watkins BA #19
AAA Alberto Gonzalez

A Gioskar Amaya BA #21/MLB.com #18

Shortstop (8 - 2 MLB/2 AAA/1 AA/3 A)

MLB Starlin Castro
MLB Brent Lillibridge

AAA Junior Lake BA #15/MLB.com #9/FG #13
AAA Edwin Maysonet

AA Elliot Soto

A Javier Baez BA #1/MLB.com #1/FG #1
A Arismendy Alacantara BA #10
A Marco Hernandez BA #20/FG #11

Third Baseman (5 - 2 MLB/1 AAA/1 AA/1 A)

MLB Ian Stewart
MLB Luis Valbuena

AAA Josh Vitters BA #25/MLB.com #14/FG #10

AA Christian Villanueva BA #12/MLB.com #8/FG #9

A Jeimer Candelario BA #8/MLB.com #13/FG #12

Left Fielder (4 - 1 MLB/2 AAA/1 AA)

MLB Alfonso Soriano

AAA Brian Bogusevic
AAA Darnell McDonald

AA Rubi Silva

Center Fielder (6 - 1 MLB/1 AAA/2 AA/2 A)

MLB David DeJesus

AAA Brett Jackson BA #5/MLB.com #4/FG #7

AA Matt Szczur BA # 14/MLB.com #10/FG #8
AA Jae-Hoon Ha MLB.com #12

A Albert Almora BA #2/MLB.com #2/FG #2
A Trey Martin BA #30/MLB.com #20/FG #15

Right Fielder (6 - 3 MLB/1 AAA/1 AA/1 A)

MLB Scott Hairston
MLB Nate Schierholtz
MLB Dave Sappelt

AAA Brad Snyder

AA Johermyn Chavez

A Jorge Soler BA #3/MLB.com #3/FG #3

MLB - 25
DL - 2
AAA - 26
AA - 21
A - 17
________
Total - 91

Obviously we'd have to remove a player from that list to get to 90 (probably one of the Low-A SP's) and balance out the AAA/AA/A rosters to get them to 25 each. I was just doing an initial fly-by so I wasn't trying to be too detail-oriented. And as the NRI's start getting weeded out and rosters start taking form we can possibly sub out some of the older "journeymen" for more fringe prospect-type players.

Outside Looking In:

Ben Wells
Stephen Bruno
Ryan McNeil
Kyle Hendricks
Shawon Dunston Jr.
Reggie Golden
Ronald Torreyes
Zeke DeVoss
Rock Shoulders
Eric Jokisch
Jeffry Antigua
P.J. Francescon
Jose Arias
Michael Jensen

I feel like Torreyes should find his way onto the roster, he has very good contact ability and his prospect status was hurt by his poor BABIP luck last year (and is always hurt by his size).

I wish Golden, Dunston, and Bruno (favorite of these 3) could as well, but I feel less strongly about them than I do about Torreyes.

ETA: Hard to say who I would have them replace. I really wish SCEA would allow for bigger rosters. Hopefully they will when PS4 comes out.

[zack4070]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

You should put in Daury Torrez!


Torrez went 6 - 3 with a 1.21 ERA last season with 4 walks and 50 strikeouts in 74.2 innings in the Dom. Summer League.


Torrez is a good combination of size, stuff, and projectabilty. He's just 19 years old and he's 6'3", 200 lbs and already sits at 90-93 mph with his fastball that has sink and run movement. What really stands out is that Torrez commands all his pitches, including a hard slider and a change-up. As noted above, he walked just 4 batters in 74.2 innings. If there is a weakness, it's that none of those pitches are dominant and he hasn't had as many strikeouts as you would like. Torrez will turn 20 in June so the Cubs may want to move him along to Boise this year.

[zack4070]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Dang no Almora, Dunston or Vogelbach in audio

[jnavarro]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Rizzo never had Jackson's disastrous strike out rates in the minors. I am cautiously optimistic, but this isn't the same thing at all, Jackson will likely still be a bust, or at the very least never reach close to what we had hoped.

Different players of course, but not totally different situations. I like your phrase "cautiously optimistic" and think it is too early to declare him a bust. Our outfield prospects are far enough away that he will still get his shot, likely this season.

[hjgilber]

In an ideal world, Jackson could still end up as a 3 win or better player, it's just a lot less likely after the 2012 he had (both majors and minors).

[hjgilber]

Different players of course, but not totally different situations. I like your phrase "cautiously optimistic" and think it is too early to declare him a bust. Our outfield prospects are far enough away that he will still get his shot, likely this season.

Oh also, it's pretty much a totally different situation. Outside of his cup of coffee, Rizzo has never had strikeout issues. Jackson has had issues since before he was even drafted.

Rizzo just went back to being close (slightly better even) to what he always has been when his Ks got better.

Jackson is trying to contradict his entire baseball life.

[jnavarro]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Oh also, it's pretty much a totally different situation. Outside of his cup of coffee, Rizzo has never had strikeout issues. Jackson has had issues since before he was even drafted.

Rizzo just went back to being close (slightly better even) to what he always has been when his Ks got better.

Jackson is trying to contradict his entire baseball life.

I see what you are saying and I don't disagree. Let's take a closer look though. Jackson doesn't have a batting eye problem. He doesn't swing at trash. He swings and misses at a lot of balls in the strike zone. The implication is that if the holes in his swing are closed there is hope.

[jnavarro]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

I posted this elsewhere but I wonder if it might be relevant here too. It could affect how we make rosters but we need a much larger sample size to go off of than my one experience.

I just ran a my first draft as the Cubs (simming ahead to try it out) and I noticed the draft now went 7 rounds. Every one of the seven players I drafted ended up with an A potential when I signed him. Some were down in the 40s overall with long ETAs though. I'm wondering if potential no longer matters as much as it used to. Either that, or I just had an amazing draft that I'll never recreate? I'm wondering if there are more A guys now but many never reach star status because they start too low.

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

About the comparison of Rizzo and Jackson.

Their K/BB ratios are very similar actually over their minor league careers.

Rizzo: 2.15 K/BB
Jackson: 2.13 K/BB

Of couse Rzzo's power sort of justifies his strikeout rate and Jackson has a higher strikeout rate as well anyways (3.78 PA/K) than Rizzo (4.92 PA/K), but walks more and as such has a slightly higher OBP than Rizzo.

I don't think everyone is giving up on him, he still has great tools. But he strikes out a lot and without Stanton power its not justified. He gets on base well already though so he could be a starting OF for years if he can put it together in terms of his swings and misses. I still think he is a B at best right now and as such I think seanjeezy will want him created.

For the prospects mentioned If you guys want to put up a case for a prospect you want in you also need to justify taking one out from AA or A. I;m basically using the list posted and this http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/0...#.UTbHHjBwrPkd

seanjeezy told me the limit is 90 players, but I can make some more and include them on the player vault if I want. So if you guys help me out with the prospects you want I can maybe put some extra ones on the vault for you to import and have more than 90 players if you want personally. But OSFM I think will have 90 players max.

[skow05]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

For the prospects mentioned If you guys want to put up a case for a prospect you want in you also need to justify taking one out from AA or A. I;m basically using the list posted and this http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/0...#.UTbHHjBwrPkd

seanjeezy told me the limit is 90 players, but I can make some more and include them on the player vault if I want. So if you guys help me out with the prospects you want I can maybe put some extra ones on the vault for you to import and have more than 90 players if you want personally. But OSFM I think will have 90 players max.

From the link above, I count 59 players until it gets to the "Lower Level Prospects You Should Know" section.

The 31 I think should be in from that section, along with my spitball potential grade in parentheses:

1B Justin Bour* AA (C/C+)
1B Dan Vogelbach* BA#7 BP#5 A- (B-/B)

2B Gioskar Amaya A- (C+)
2B Stephen Bruno A- (7-224) (C)
2B Ronald Torreyes A+ (C)

3B Jeimer Candelario** BA#8 A- (C+)

SS Arismendy Alcantara** BA#10A+ (C+/B-)
SS Javier BaezBA#1 BP#2 A+ AFL (A)
SS Marco Hernandez**A (C/C+)

OF Albert Almora BA#2 BP#1 A- (1-6) (B/B+)
OF Jae-Hoon HaAA (C/C+)
OF Rubi Silva* AA AFL (D+/C-)
OF Shawon Dunston, Jr.* A- (C-/C)
OF Nelson Perez* AA (D)
OF Reggie GoldenA (C/C-)

RHP Dallas Beeler AA(C-)
RHP Paul Blackburn AZL (1-56) (B-/B)
RHP Marcelo Carreno A (C+)
RHP Kyle Hendricks A+ (C-)
RHP Michael JensenA (C)
RHP Pierce Johnson BA#6 BP#7 A- (1-43) (B/B+)
RHP Matt Loosen A+ (C-)
RHP Dillon MaplesBP#10AZL (B/B-)
RHP Ryan McNeil AZL (3-101) (C+/B-)
RHP Dae-Eun Rhee AA AFL (D+)
RHP Duane Underwood BP#8 AZL (2-67) (C+)
RHP Ben WellsA (C)
RHP Kevin Rhoderick AA AFL (C-/D+)
RHP Tony ZychAA AFL (C+/B-)

LHP Erik Jokisch AA (C)
LHP Austin Kirk AA (C/C-)

Just my thoughts. I think those 31 lower level prospects plus the 59 in the 25-man roster/"Outside Looking In" would be a solid roster.

[jnavarro]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

The above looks very helpful. I would give a little more love to Candelario and Underwood but the rest is nice. The new potential system may change this though as we see how it goes. We might be giving out more A grades than we expected if my draft last night is any indication.

[skow05]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

The above looks very helpful. I would give a little more love to Candelario and Underwood but the rest is nice. The new potential system may change this though as we see how it goes. We might be giving out more A grades than we expected if my draft last night is any indication.

I wouldn't disagree with you necessarily. I was being conservative in most cases.

Your experience with the draft is interesting, and it very well might change the way we are grading out the potential of our prospects. Have you had a chance to take it a step further by simming a few years and seeing how these "Blue Chip Prospects" take shape over time?

I know that players now have different growth patterns to reach their potential, but I was under the impression that it was still a given that they will ultimately reach said potential (depending on age/overall in relation to that potential).

I'm very curious to see how that plays out!

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

From the link above, I count 59 players until it gets to the "Lower Level Prospects You Should Know" section.

The 31 I think should be in from that section, along with my spitball potential grade in parentheses:

1B Justin Bour* AA (C/C+)
1B Dan Vogelbach* BA#7 BP#5 A- (B-/B)

2B Gioskar Amaya A- (C+)
2B Stephen Bruno A- (7-224) (C)
2B Ronald Torreyes A+ (C)

3B Jeimer Candelario** BA#8 A- (C+)

SS Arismendy Alcantara** BA#10A+ (C+/B-)
SS Javier BaezBA#1 BP#2 A+ AFL (A)
SS Marco Hernandez**A (C/C+)

OF Albert Almora BA#2 BP#1 A- (1-6) (B/B+)
OF Jae-Hoon HaAA (C/C+)
OF Rubi Silva* AA AFL (D+/C-)
OF Shawon Dunston, Jr.* A- (C-/C)
OF Nelson Perez* AA (D)
OF Reggie GoldenA (C/C-)

RHP Dallas Beeler AA(C-)
RHP Paul Blackburn AZL (1-56) (B-/B)
RHP Marcelo Carreno A (C+)
RHP Kyle Hendricks A+ (C-)
RHP Michael JensenA (C)
RHP Pierce Johnson BA#6 BP#7 A- (1-43) (B/B+)
RHP Matt Loosen A+ (C-)
RHP Dillon MaplesBP#10AZL (B/B-)
RHP Ryan McNeil AZL (3-101) (C+/B-)
RHP Dae-Eun Rhee AA AFL (D+)
RHP Duane Underwood BP#8 AZL (2-67) (C+)
RHP Ben WellsA (C)
RHP Kevin Rhoderick AA AFL (C-/D+)
RHP Tony ZychAA AFL (C+/B-)

LHP Erik Jokisch AA (C)
LHP Austin Kirk AA (C/C-)

Just my thoughts. I think those 31 lower level prospects plus the 59 in the 25-man roster/"Outside Looking In" would be a solid roster.

Thanks for the input, a lot of your potentials match up with mine. I'll have to check my list with yours and see if there are any disagreements and look at them more closely.

If anyone else has opinions go ahead and post them.

I'm also going to try and at least get the more extreme tendency hitters correct. So if a guy is a dead pull hitter I want to at least give him at least a pull tendency and definitely not a push one. It might be time consuming so I'm not going to do it for all the players, just ones that are way off. If a guy is pull in real life and in my roster is balanced, I'll probably leave him bee especially if he's a low level prospect. But Knight said to not waste too much time on this.

[skow05]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

From the link above, I count 59 players until it gets to the "Lower Level Prospects You Should Know" section.

The 31 I think should be in from that section, along with my spitball potential grade in parentheses:

1B Justin Bour* AA (C/C+)
1B Dan Vogelbach* BA#7 BP#5 A- (B-/B)

2B Gioskar Amaya A- (C+)
2B Stephen Bruno A- (7-224) (C)
2B Ronald Torreyes A+ (C)

3B Jeimer Candelario** BA#8 A- (C+)

SS Arismendy Alcantara** BA#10A+ (C+/B-)
SS Javier BaezBA#1 BP#2 A+ AFL (A)
SS Marco Hernandez**A (C/C+)

OF Albert Almora BA#2 BP#1 A- (1-6) (B/B+)
OF Jae-Hoon HaAA (C/C+)
OF Rubi Silva* AA AFL (D+/C-)
OF Shawon Dunston, Jr.* A- (C-/C)
OF Nelson Perez* AA (D)
OF Reggie GoldenA (C/C-)

RHP Dallas Beeler AA(C-)
RHP Paul Blackburn AZL (1-56) (B-/B)
RHP Marcelo Carreno A (C+)
RHP Kyle Hendricks A+ (C-)
RHP Michael JensenA (C)
RHP Pierce Johnson BA#6 BP#7 A- (1-43) (B/B+)
RHP Matt Loosen A+ (C-)
RHP Dillon MaplesBP#10AZL (B/B-)
RHP Ryan McNeil AZL (3-101) (C+/B-)
RHP Dae-Eun Rhee AA AFL (D+)
RHP Duane Underwood BP#8 AZL (2-67) (C+)
RHP Ben WellsA (C)
RHP Kevin Rhoderick AA AFL (C-/D+)
RHP Tony ZychAA AFL (C+/B-)

LHP Erik Jokisch AA (C)
LHP Austin Kirk AA (C/C-)

Just my thoughts. I think those 31 lower level prospects plus the 59 in the 25-man roster/"Outside Looking In" would be a solid roster.

I thought I'd add in the other players that would need to be created in addition to those previous 31, and what I think their potential should be (in parentheses):

SU RHP Kyuji Fujikawa BA#9 (B/B+)
LR RHP Hector Rondon RULE 5 (C)
3B Christian Villanueva BP#9 A+ (B-)
SS/3B Junior Lake AA (I feel like he should either be a B or D...he's a tough one)
IF/OF Logan Watkins*AA AFL (C/C+)
OF Jorge Soler BA#3 BP#3 A (A)
OF Matthew Szczur AA AFL (C+/B-)
C Michael Brenly AA (D)
C Rafael Lopez* A+ (C-/C)
1B/OF Brad Nelson* AAA (C-/D+)
OF Johermyn Chavez AA (C-)
RHP Jensen Lewis AAA (D+)
RHP Robert Whitenack A+ (C+/B-)
RHP Barret Loux AA (C+/B-)
RHP Nick Struck AA AFL (C/C+)
RHP Trey McNutt AA (C-)
RHP Drew Carpenter AAA (C-) <-- I thought I saw him in the FA list. could be wrong though

RHP Dayan Diaz A (C)

So that makes 49 minor leaguers/prospects that need to be created. Below are the 43 players that should already be in the game. I figured at least 92 should be created just in case a couple NRI's don't stick with the organization.

•RHP Scott Baker + TOMMY JOHN SURGERY ON - Mid-April return
•RHP Matt Garza + STRAINED LAT - out for first month + of season
RHP Jeff Samardzija
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Scott Feldman
RHP Carlos Villanueva
RHP Carlos Marmol
RHP Shawn Camp
RHP Michael Bowden
RHP Rafael Dolis
RHP Jaye Chapman
RHP Blake Parker
RHP Zach Putnam
RHP Cory Wade
RHP Alberto Cabrera
RHP Arodys Vizcaino BA#4 BP#4 + TOMMY JOHN SURGERY ON 3/20/12
RHP Casey Coleman

LHP Travis Wood
LHP James Russell
LHP Hisanori Takahashi
LHP Brooks Raley
LHP Chris Rusin

LF Alfonso Soriano
CF David DeJesus*
RF Nate Schierholtz*
OF Brian Bogusevic*
OF Scott Hairston
OF Brett Jackson* BA#5 BP#6 <--Should be recreated to a B/B- potential
OF Dave Sappelt
OF Darnell McDonald

1B Anthony Rizzo*
2B Darwin Barney
SS Starlin Castro
3B Ian Stewart*
3B Josh Vitters <-- Should be recreated to a C+ potential
IF/OF Brent Lillibridge
IF/OF Luis Valbuena*
IF Alberto Gonzalez
IF Edwin Maysonet

C Welington Castillo
C Dioner Navarro**
C/1B Steve Clevenger*
C J.C. Boscan

Anyways. I hope this can help out. Obviously those potential grades are just my initial knee-jerk reaction on each of these prospects. So don't rake me over the coals or anything.

So efficient at work today