MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

[ksig24]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Thoughts on Austin Wilson? Will he ever fully tap into the power or is that dependent on how much he hits?

Hey buddy, long time. I actually got to cover Wilson numerous times as he is in my area. I really liked him coming out of HS, but when I saw him playing in college he looked like a Cameron Maybin'esque specimen. Big bodied with exceptional tools across the board. I had to go back to my old scouting cards from when I saw him in HS to review my notes because I could immediately tell something was different. This is a common thing of players that play at Stanford, especially hitters with hippy and lofty swings. That school tends to focus on a heavily mechanical swing, kind of like a slow motion squashing the bug and then firing the hips and hands on a more level plane. I could see this change immediately and dropped him on my follow list because of it. The thing with Wilson is that he's still relatively raw and learning how to operate in his big body. He will need time for sure, but if he puts it together he is a 30 HR guy around peak years. The hit tool is playable, but average at best. The power as I mentioned is legit 65-70 on my scale. Everything else plays up and is above average including his speed.

Hope that helps. This is a strong reason why the Cardinals tried very hard to sign him before he declined and exactly why the Mets passed on him.

[RidinDwnKingsley]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

You can put me down for any teams left if you want.......im game lol

Sent from my SM-T217S using Tapatalk

[baseballphanatic]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Knight, like I've previously said (in other threads)....I expect to have the Angels roster done day 1. So if there is anyone that needs ratings done or w/e just let me know. I see some ppl might not be able to just cuz of being busy or w/e. if no rush then no worries. But I could probably literally do a few teams the first day

[baseballphanatic]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Thoughts on Austin Wilson? Will he ever fully tap into the power or is that dependent on how much he hits?

just throwing my opinion in....IMO IF he made it to the majors hed be a 15 HR guy.....Now with that frame he has, he needs to put on 15 or so pounds. U gotta think if he stays with SEA hes got 81 games in that pitchers park. If you think he'll crack SEA top 20 prospects then check out MLB.com on Monday as they r releasing the M's top 20 prospects and they will either confirm what my opinion is or they will tell me im completely wrong

[seanjeezy]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

just throwing my opinion in....IMO IF he made it to the majors hed be a 15 HR guy.....Now with that frame he has, he needs to put on 15 or so pounds. U gotta think if he stays with SEA hes got 81 games in that pitchers park. If you think he'll crack SEA top 20 prospects then check out MLB.com on Monday as they r releasing the M's top 20 prospects and they will either confirm what my opinion is or they will tell me im completely wrong

The general consensus is that Wilson always had monster raw power and routinely puts on shows in bp. However that power was locked in college due to a contact orientated opposite field approach (thanks a lot Stanford) and some injuries, and it basically took him the whole summer to get comfortable with a loftier pro style swing (he killed it in August).

I saw him on tv last night and he is a huge dude, 6-5 240 lb at least. I don't think he needs to add any more weight, otherwise he'll lose some athleticism.

[twinsfan34]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

It's tough to do ratings in general, especially finding a one-size-fits-all type. As usually that will be some sort of regression, which will make 'good players' seem worse and 'bad players' seem better as they regress towards that line of best fit, mean, or whatever method is used.

It's why Zips, Steamer, et all are all off.

If you by by history, what they project has NEVER happened. This year they predict (as they usually do) only 3-5 hitters will hit .300 and the highest isn't above .325.

When has that happened in baseball? Never. Not once in 143 years of baseball has such a season happened.

Top 10 Batting Averages for the past 143 years here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le..._top_ten.shtml

If you go on 143 years of baseball, it's never happened. In 143 years of top 10 finishers in batting average, there's only been 11 instances (1,430 spots) in those top 10's where a player in the top 10 did not hit over .300. That's 99.1% of top 10 hitters will be at or above .300. Not since 1968 has there not been 10 hitters over .300 in a season, there were only 6 that season. That's the year Carl Yazstrzempski had the lowest ever average to win a batting title, .301 in the AL. The mound was thus lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches beginning in 1969. (For those wishing to split up eras of baseball, 1969 to present would be a good one IMO, I digress, another discussion for another day.)
The lowest average ever for the #1 hitter in a league? That happened in 1960, when Dick Groat hit .3246.

Pretty neat stuff.

So the projections for 2014? Well...

Oliver has Trout hitting .325
Steamer has Cabrera hitting .325
Zips has Cabrera hitting .317

So this is "predicted" to be the worst statistical season in 144 years of MLB history.

The fans projections there (18 hitters over .300) is actually the most accurate (in line with what's actually happened in MLB history).

However, then all of that...to applying it to a game - and how do you get the ratings in the game...to go off a rating...and product well, seasons close to what the fans project.

And there, we have it. The challenge of it all.

[Knight165]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

It's tough to do ratings in general, especially finding a one-size-fits-all type. As usually that will be some sort of regression, which will make 'good players' seem worse and 'bad players' seem better as they regress towards that line of best fit, mean, or whatever method is used.

It's why Zips, Steamer, et all are all off.

If you by by history, what they project has NEVER happened. This year they predict (as they usually do) only 3-5 hitters will hit .300 and the highest isn't above .325.

When has that happened in baseball? Never. Not once in 143 years of baseball has such a season happened.

Top 10 Batting Averages for the past 143 years here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le..._top_ten.shtml

If you go on 143 years of baseball, it's never happened. In 143 years of top 10 finishers in batting average, there's only been 11 instances (1,430 spots) in those top 10's where a player in the top 10 did not hit over .300. That's 99.1% of top 10 hitters will be at or above .300. Not since 1968 has there not been 10 hitters over .300 in a season, there were only 6 that season. That's the year Carl Yazstrzempski had the lowest ever average to win a batting title, .301 in the AL. The mound was thus lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches beginning in 1969. (For those wishing to split up eras of baseball, 1969 to present would be a good one IMO, I digress, another discussion for another day.)
The lowest average ever for the #1 hitter in a league? That happened in 1960, when Dick Groat hit .3246.

Pretty neat stuff.

So the projections for 2014? Well...

Oliver has Trout hitting .325
Steamer has Cabrera hitting .325
Zips has Cabrera hitting .317

So this is "predicted" to be the worst statistical season in 144 years of MLB history.

The fans projections there (18 hitters over .300) is actually the most accurate (in line with what's actually happened in MLB history).

However, then all of that...to applying it to a game - and how do you get the ratings in the game...to go off a rating...and product well, seasons close to what the fans project.

And there, we have it. The challenge of it all.

In your context....yes.
But we are taking Minor league players and using the ZiPs projections(or your own....or what you think the player will be and "walk it back in years".)...as the basis for the players BASE and letting them progress as the game takes it.

To be honest...I'm not interested in re-rating ANY MLB players ...I know guys do it...but not for the O.S.F.M. Opening Day set(s)

M.K.
Knight165

[Willard76]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

In your context....yes.
But we are taking Minor league players and using the ZiPs projections(or your own....or what you think the player will be and "walk it back in years".)...as the basis for the players BASE and letting them progress as the game takes it.

To be honest...I'm not interested in re-rating ANY MLB players ...I know guys do it...but not for the O.S.F.M. Opening Day set(s)

M.K.
Knight165

Like Knight said the ZiPs give you a good idea to work from and as for projections, I don't have the exact data on hand, but I believe that last year Steamer's ratings were within 3% accurate of the final numbers, followed by Oliver and then Fans. ZiPs were under the 3% mark but I don't remember what the exact number was.

When using the players as a base for your ratings it will give you a pretty accurate number to aim at - but as I continually say - rating prospects is a crapshoot at best - otherwise JP Arencibia, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Delmon Young to name a few would all be perennial All Stars right now.

All we can do is take the info we are given this year and aim to make our players as accurate as possible.

I am not here to promote another roster but if people are looking for a full re-rated roster or would like to debate the merits and techniques of re-rating a roster there is the OSFM Hybrid roster which is created after this roster is released.

[twinsfan34]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

In your context....yes.
But we are taking Minor league players and using the ZiPs projections(or your own....or what you think the player will be and "walk it back in years".)...as the basis for the players BASE and letting them progress as the game takes it.

To be honest...I'm not interested in re-rating ANY MLB players ...I know guys do it...but not for the O.S.F.M. Opening Day set(s)

M.K.
Knight165

Yea, I agree, sorry, I should have made that distinction (also think I posted in the wrong thread)....but for prospects, the Zips probably as good a 'projection' as there is.

[twinsfan34]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Like Knight said the ZiPs give you a good idea to work from and as for projections, I don't have the exact data on hand, but I believe that last year Steamer's ratings were within 3% accurate of the final numbers, followed by Oliver and then Fans. ZiPs were under the 3% mark but I don't remember what the exact number was.

When using the players as a base for your ratings it will give you a pretty accurate number to aim at - but as I continually say - rating prospects is a crapshoot at best - otherwise JP Arencibia, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Delmon Young to name a few would all be perennial All Stars right now.

All we can do is take the info we are given this year and aim to make our players as accurate as possible.

I am not here to promote another roster but if people are looking for a full re-rated roster or would like to debate the merits and techniques of re-rating a roster there is the OSFM Hybrid roster which is created after this roster is released.

Yeah, it's going to be close as a whole, but that's to be expected as most seasons don't differ by more than 1-3% from year to year in any category.

Take a comparison of Grades year to year.

If the average GPA was 2.75 one year, I could safely guess it was going to be 2.8 the next year with pretty good accuracy, but that doesn't help the students who were getting 3.9 their Freshman, Sophomore, and Junior years. They're just not going to get the 'average' grade.

For each player, you'd have to take a confidence interval based on their stats.

I'd then apply aging curves as well as similar players. Kinda curious why this hasn't been done, other than it's a butt-ton of work. Would need some sort of algorithm to re-eval players each year with similar age seasons and similar careers...then their next season (projection) would likely weigh on those 3-10 players...and could do a weighted projection based on most similar on down to the 10th most similar.

A basic statistics summary of Miguel Cabrera's career, counting only his full seasons (not his rookie yr) shows a career average of .324


Mean 0.3242 Standard Error 0.005957 Minimum 0.292 Maximum 0.348 Conf Lvl (95.0%) 0.013475
Then factor in some sort of age factor just to be safe of guys with a similar career and age 30 season.

And you'd say...
Max + conf lvl - age factor = .337 - age factor amt = High
Min + conf lvl - age factor = .319 - age factor amt = Low

Age factor would come from a similar study as this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

Then possibly factoring in another +/- based on similar careers and similar age seasons to get their next season.

And voila...

All this to say, I don't want it to be lost on that fact I'm very appreciative of ANY of the work people do on the rosters as a whole. People can make their tweaks as they need/like and everyone's hard work allows for a great starting point.

I'm just kinda surprised Fangraphs or someplace similar hasn't done a more granular approach (player specific) to projections.

[baseballphanatic]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

The general consensus is that Wilson always had monster raw power and routinely puts on shows in bp. However that power was locked in college due to a contact orientated opposite field approach (thanks a lot Stanford) and some injuries, and it basically took him the whole summer to get comfortable with a loftier pro style swing (he killed it in August).

I saw him on tv last night and he is a huge dude, 6-5 240 lb at least. I don't think he needs to add any more weight, otherwise he'll lose some athleticism.

Oh they have him listed at 6'4 215 on MiLB.com so apparently he's at where I was saying he needs to get to haha

[tbbucsfan001]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

It's tough to do ratings in general, especially finding a one-size-fits-all type. As usually that will be some sort of regression, which will make 'good players' seem worse and 'bad players' seem better as they regress towards that line of best fit, mean, or whatever method is used.

It's why Zips, Steamer, et all are all off.

If you by by history, what they project has NEVER happened. This year they predict (as they usually do) only 3-5 hitters will hit .300 and the highest isn't above .325.

When has that happened in baseball? Never. Not once in 143 years of baseball has such a season happened.

Top 10 Batting Averages for the past 143 years here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/le..._top_ten.shtml

If you go on 143 years of baseball, it's never happened. In 143 years of top 10 finishers in batting average, there's only been 11 instances (1,430 spots) in those top 10's where a player in the top 10 did not hit over .300. That's 99.1% of top 10 hitters will be at or above .300. Not since 1968 has there not been 10 hitters over .300 in a season, there were only 6 that season. That's the year Carl Yazstrzempski had the lowest ever average to win a batting title, .301 in the AL. The mound was thus lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches beginning in 1969. (For those wishing to split up eras of baseball, 1969 to present would be a good one IMO, I digress, another discussion for another day.)
The lowest average ever for the #1 hitter in a league? That happened in 1960, when Dick Groat hit .3246.

Pretty neat stuff.

So the projections for 2014? Well...

Oliver has Trout hitting .325
Steamer has Cabrera hitting .325
Zips has Cabrera hitting .317

So this is "predicted" to be the worst statistical season in 144 years of MLB history.

The fans projections there (18 hitters over .300) is actually the most accurate (in line with what's actually happened in MLB history).

However, then all of that...to applying it to a game - and how do you get the ratings in the game...to go off a rating...and product well, seasons close to what the fans project.

And there, we have it. The challenge of it all.

ZiPS, steamer, etc. are mean projections. The "projections" are the 50th percentile of each hitter.

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/should-all-forecasts-come-with-two-numbers-instead-of-one

It's not predicted to be the worst hitting year ever. ZiPS is projecting the AL to have a 4.04 ERA and the NL to have a 3.81 ERA. Every year the batting title goes to someone who was good AND LUCKY.

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/should-you-forecast-luck#comments

http://www.hardballtimes.com/forecasting-2006/

http://www.mrcheatsheet.com/2014/02/2013-pitcher-projections.html

http://www.mrcheatsheet.com/2014/01/2013-hitter-projections.html

Fans are good, but the systems are better.

[tbbucsfan001]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Yeah, it's going to be close as a whole, but that's to be expected as most seasons don't differ by more than 1-3% from year to year in any category.

Take a comparison of Grades year to year.

If the average GPA was 2.75 one year, I could safely guess it was going to be 2.8 the next year with pretty good accuracy, but that doesn't help the students who were getting 3.9 their Freshman, Sophomore, and Junior years. They're just not going to get the 'average' grade.

For each player, you'd have to take a confidence interval based on their stats.

I'd then apply aging curves as well as similar players. Kinda curious why this hasn't been done, other than it's a butt-ton of work. Would need some sort of algorithm to re-eval players each year with similar age seasons and similar careers...then their next season (projection) would likely weigh on those 3-10 players...and could do a weighted projection based on most similar on down to the 10th most similar.

A basic statistics summary of Miguel Cabrera's career, counting only his full seasons (not his rookie yr) shows a career average of .324


Mean 0.3242 Standard Error 0.005957 Minimum 0.292 Maximum 0.348 Conf Lvl (95.0%) 0.013475
Then factor in some sort of age factor just to be safe of guys with a similar career and age 30 season.

And you'd say...
Max + conf lvl - age factor = .337 - age factor amt = High
Min + conf lvl - age factor = .319 - age factor amt = Low

Age factor would come from a similar study as this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

Then possibly factoring in another +/- based on similar careers and similar age seasons to get their next season.

And voila...

All this to say, I don't want it to be lost on that fact I'm very appreciative of ANY of the work people do on the rosters as a whole. People can make their tweaks as they need/like and everyone's hard work allows for a great starting point.

I'm just kinda surprised Fangraphs or someplace similar hasn't done a more granular approach (player specific) to projections.

ZiPS regresses numbers to the player's most comparable players at their age. Marcel uses a confidence interval to base the regression after: PA/(PA+1200) where PA=(5*2013PA+4*2012PA+3*2011PA)/12 for 2014. Steamer regresses to a positional average.

[JokerWins]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Knight

Curious, with the ps4 version coming out a month after the ps3 version and rosters (I think you had said can be transferred?) is it a safe bet that the ps4 version of rosters would come out same day as game or a day or two after?

[Knight165]

Re: MLB The Show'14(PS3 and PS4)-Operation Sports Full Minors-RECRUITING

Knight

Curious, with the ps4 version coming out a month after the ps3 version and rosters (I think you had said can be transferred?) is it a safe bet that the ps4 version of rosters would come out same day as game or a day or two after?

That's the plan....and the hope.
I may have to ask a couple of the vet editors to work a little Oscar Tango!

M.K.
Knight165