The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

[trusaleen1]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

guys I noticed that when using the calculator and editing ratings that a lot of the pitchers control and break is a lot lower than the regular ratings. Any negative impact?

[TheGame8544]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

I start with weighted and look at the level and the stats. Then I decide if I want to go to whatever weighted says or a bit less, or leave the existing rating.

So for Posey, he currently has a 44 with -1 change, so OSFM2 probably had him at 45.

The weighted shows him at 45. Looking at his stats, he doesn't get many triples, not even a handful of bunt hits, and probably not many infield hits. So I would leave him alone.

I tend to go weighted because it captures more of what he's been doing recently. For prospects, I might go career, especially if the prior year has more data than the more recent years - say he got called up early in AAA but hasn't seen much MLB action either, I might go with career or use the numbers outright for the AAA years he had full work in.

So it's some judgement call, at least for me. You have to figure out what you want to see and the approach that works for you.

This is exactly how to do it.

Also, sorry I haven't been around lately. Been slowly fixing some things and busy with just general life issues. I'll be posting an update to the calc soon (hopefully tomorrow!!!!)

[TheGame8544]

The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

guys I noticed that when using the calculator and editing ratings that a lot of the pitchers control and break is a lot lower than the regular ratings. Any negative impact?

These are nothing more than WTNY's pitch ratings. I'm not sure exactly what he uses, but I think it's Brooks Baseball. Regardless, yes they do work really well. Those that have inputted them in years past have raved about the results. So he is the one to thank for those. The rest is my work, based on the work of Bahnzo and Jimbo.

[TheGame8544]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

A question I need cleared up. I'm messing around with this calculator and using it to look at what minor league players would be rated.



Cole Tucker of the Pirates. In 2015 he hit .322 vs left and .281 vs right.



However on your calculator for just 2015 it gives him a contact rating of 41 vs left and 49 vs right. He hit 40 points higher vs lefties.



I'm not saying its not correct, For all we know none of these ratings are "correct" but do other stats go into the contact rating other than batting average?



Thanks.

Because Minor League Splits are incredibly difficult to obtain (if someone can provide me a good link, I'll be happy to update), I've used total stats per year.

Then what I've done is take an average number of at bats vs l and at bats vs r. On average, I found hitters bat about 75% of the time against right handers and 25% against lefties.

Finally, I found lefties hit much better against right handers, righties slightly better against left handers, and switch hitters hit with better average against right handers and more power against left handers.

It's not perfect, but statistically it's how MOST players work out. If you know differently about a specific minor league player, then by all means tweak the ratings. But if a guy is .322 vs L and .281 vs R, then you can basically swap those L and R ratings. But it's the exception more than the rule from what I've found.

Last thing. Because across the league hitters bat with a higher mean average against lefties as opposed to righties, stats are slightly lowered against high average against lefty guys. So a guy that bats .310 against righties is going to be rated slightly higher than a player that bats .310 against lefties. This is strictly because it is more typical for a player to hit .310 against lefties than against righties. You have WAY more right handers that over achieve against left handed pitchers than you have lefties or righties that over achieve against right handed pitchers.

[AC]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

http://minorleaguecentral.com/

They might/should have splits, but they won't be updated past last August or so.

[JBU2k]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

It doesn't work for me it starts to load and then just stops

[TheGame8544]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

http://minorleaguecentral.com/



They might/should have splits, but they won't be updated past last August or so.

Thanks!

It'd take a **** load of time, but I might consider trying to put these in at some point. The biggest bear is they don't have players totaled out. So I'd have to copy every league for every year, then sum up the numbers for each player. This is why Fangraphs has been so essential to this project. Not impossible but given the number of players in the minors with the exact same name, it'd be quite the task.

Personally, it doesn't bother me not having exact minor league splits since really what a guy does in the minors all too often has very little impact on what he does in the majors. But I'm open to trying it. Maybe. No promises.

[bravesfan1984]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

Is there a way to get this to work in older verisions of excel, like Excel 2003?

[tonybologna]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

It doesn't work for me it starts to load and then just stops

What version of Excel do you have installed? I have a little older version & it loads for me but it takes it a couple of minutes. Make sure you allow enough time for it to load just in case.

[streakingblue04]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

The Game, thanks for this calculator, I have been a lurker on this site for a while but this calculator has finally made me get an account. Just some thoughts on ways to improve the calculator if you are interested (note I do not intend to point these out as criticisms just some things you might be able to do to improve the calculator, I also realize that some of the ideas may be a bit ambitious or indefeasible).
1) Dampen the impact of rookies bursting onto the majors. To do this I would have a dummy year of ABs to calculated into the weighted totals. I would set the dummy year stats as a little below league average stats (or possibly at rookie league average stats). This way a player with 100 great at bats would be expected to regress, whereas a player with 1000 great at bats would be expected to (more or less) continue with that performance.
2) Adjust stats for age. You would expect a 24 year old to play slightly better in 2016 then they played in 2015, similarly you would expect a 35 year old to play worse then they played in 15. The value of 2014 statistics would be a lot more for a 29 or 30 year old.
3) It does not seem to me that the fangraphs defensive ratings work all that well, it seems that players are either great fielders, or awful fielders with little in between, (I also think that SCEA ratings are poor as it doesn't seem most of them have changed in years). I don't have a great solution for this problem but maybe statcast can help out in the near future.
4) Probably the most difficult to do but if there is any way to objectively determine potential, that would be amazing.

Again, thanks for the hard work, I hope you don't take any of this as criticism.

[ilstu24]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

Milb.com has the best data for minor league splits. It's what I use.

[TheGame8544]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

Milb.com has the best data for minor league splits. It's what I use.

Yeah, they just don't have a convenient way to get bulk data. It's player by player.

[AC]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

Here.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=70957

Select the stats you need and it'll spit out a leaderboard. Then set the league to AAA, AA, etc.

[TheGame8544]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

Here.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=70957

Select the stats you need and it'll spit out a leaderboard. Then set the league to AAA, AA, etc.

I might be missing something, but I see nothing on there where I can select the league when I am looking at splits. Under the section Splits is an option for Batter Season VS LHP. I click that. It gives me a bunch of MLB data, but nothing for minors. Are you a subscriber?

[TheGame8544]

Re: The Game's Community Ratings Calculator

The Game, thanks for this calculator, I have been a lurker on this site for a while but this calculator has finally made me get an account. Just some thoughts on ways to improve the calculator if you are interested (note I do not intend to point these out as criticisms just some things you might be able to do to improve the calculator, I also realize that some of the ideas may be a bit ambitious or indefeasible).
1) Dampen the impact of rookies bursting onto the majors. To do this I would have a dummy year of ABs to calculated into the weighted totals. I would set the dummy year stats as a little below league average stats (or possibly at rookie league average stats). This way a player with 100 great at bats would be expected to regress, whereas a player with 1000 great at bats would be expected to (more or less) continue with that performance.
2) Adjust stats for age. You would expect a 24 year old to play slightly better in 2016 then they played in 2015, similarly you would expect a 35 year old to play worse then they played in 15. The value of 2014 statistics would be a lot more for a 29 or 30 year old.
3) It does not seem to me that the fangraphs defensive ratings work all that well, it seems that players are either great fielders, or awful fielders with little in between, (I also think that SCEA ratings are poor as it doesn't seem most of them have changed in years). I don't have a great solution for this problem but maybe statcast can help out in the near future.
4) Probably the most difficult to do but if there is any way to objectively determine potential, that would be amazing.

Again, thanks for the hard work, I hope you don't take any of this as criticism.

Great ideas, but all incredibly difficult to properly implement. I guess the age thing I could do, but the game engine already has regression built in. If a guy dominates at 35, then I'm going to give him ratings at or near what he had in 2015. He'll then immediately start declining under the game engine.

For rookies, I'm using their MILB stats, lowering them using a multiplier, and then letting them progress from there. It's a crapshoot in baseball which MILB talent will actually dominate in the majors. I think this is the best that a calculator can do.

The Fangraphs defensive ratings aren't the best, but it's better than any formulas I've tried. I've attempted using all of their analytics to create some form of rating, but they just get all over the place. The fan ratings I've found to be the best, and you can think seanjeezy for that. It's not perfect, but it gives us a ballpark of where to rate the player.

Appreciate the comments. Definitely if you want to build anything in excel, send it to me, and have me try and implement it, I am more than happy to do.

Lastly, I'm still working on Version 2. It's taking me a lot longer than expected. I have greatly improved the Fangraphs defensive ratings, I've gone in and bumped up every gold glove winners stats in their gold glove seasons and have also used Fielding Bible Award Winners and bumped them up accordingly. Work has been done on how I'm calculating whether to use MILB stats or MLB stats based on number of ABs, and it's all looking even better than before.

Thanks for the support.