Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

[KBLover]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

I dont usually like to bring things up like this without a pretty decent sample size, but its pretty glaring.

Like we talked about before, i am playing some franchise games switching teams every half inning, so i am always hitting.

I have played 5 games (so 10 games hitting).

All the offensive stats look really good overall.

I was just playing my 6th game and i jumped out to a 5-0 lead with the visiting team, with 11 hits to 3 hits. I immediately thought man it seems like all these games seem to be like this, with one team hitting and the other not so much. So i stopped and went to my spreadsheet.


The visiting team has won all 5 games. Here are the final scores, with the hits:

Game 1
9 runs /13 hits
1 runs /6 hits

Game 2
2 runs/12 hits
1 runs/3 hits

Game 3
7 runs/10 hits
2 runs /6 hits

Game 4
4 runs/8 hits
1 runs/4 hits

Game 5
6 runs/13 hits
2 runs /8 hits

Game 6 (through 5.5 innings)
5 runs/11 hits
0 runs/3 hits

At a glance they look fine. And they average out pretty good too. But so far the Visiting team is out hitting the home team but a huge margin.

Visiting Team (not including game 6):
5.6 R/G 11.2 H/G

Home Team (not including game 6):
1.4 R/G. 5.4 H/G

It looks like these numbers will be more drastic after this 6th game is finished. I play the exact same with both teams, with no bunting stealing etc.

Would you keep going with this, since the sample size is small enough? Or is this glaring enough in your opinion to scrap the experiment and go back to playing one team at a time?

Five games? That's a good road trip.

I'd keep going. If the road team keeps winning after 20-30 games then maybe I might start thinking something is up.

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

Five games? That's a good road trip.

I'd keep going. If the road team keeps winning after 20-30 games then maybe I might start thinking something is up.

Yeah as i preacher of sample size myself, after i posted that question, i asked myself how i would respond if i saw the same question posted from another user. My answer was almost yours verbatim.

Sometimes i waste time on slider tests i could have nipped in the bud earlier, or tested something more productive. I have to choose my testing wisely since i play every single pitch, and because my playing time is limited. So unfortunately sometimes i have to move on a different idea based on feel instead of 100% science, even though its not ideal. Otherwise i would have to do this 24/7.

Maybe i should hire someone to just play the Show for me and record numbers:

Experienced MLB The Show Franchise Player Wanted. Monday-Friday. Must be experienced and proficient in Zone Hitting. Hall of Fame minimum difficulty, Legend preferred. Please submit applications and at least two years of Franchise stats to NolanRyansSnowmonkey@.... NO FREE SWINGERS NEED APPLY.

Keep an eye on Craigslist...

Thanks KB for the advice. I'll keep trucking with these. I just needed an extra shove.

[My993C2]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

Experienced MLB The Show Franchise Player Wanted. Monday-Friday. Must be experienced and proficient in Zone Hitting. Hall of Fame minimum difficulty, Legend preferred. Please submit applications and at least two years of Franchise stats to NolanRyansSnowmonkey@.... NO FREE SWINGERS NEED APPLY.

Keep an eye on Craigslist...

LOL ... from the first post of this thread: "This thread will be about yet another attempt at creating a slider set based on empirical data through running a bunch of CPU vs. CPU games, without any user input at all, just because there should still be a place for misanthropes." - nomo17k

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

LOL ... from the first post of this thread: "This thread will be about yet another attempt at creating a slider set based on empirical data through running a bunch of CPU vs. CPU games, without any user input at all, just because there should still be a place for misanthropes." - nomo17k

I see your post and the quote but I just ain't really gettin it?... maybe im just slow today. Sometimes i need things spelled out for me

[capa]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

I think he is saying that Nomo's set and research is based on cpu vs cpu games. Not any type of user input interaction. Once you take control of hitting, pitching, fielding, etc...his settings may not hold up.

Sounds like you are doing user hitting every half inning...that would invalidate the findings I believe is what the previous poster is saying.

Nomo - would you agree?

C

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

LOL ... from the first post of this thread: "This thread will be about yet another attempt at creating a slider set based on empirical data through running a bunch of CPU vs. CPU games, without any user input at all, just because there should still be a place for misanthropes." - nomo17k

I think he is saying that Nomo's set and research is based on cpu vs cpu games. Not any type of user input interaction. Once you take control of hitting, pitching, fielding, etc...his settings may not hold up.

Sounds like you are doing user hitting every half inning...that would invalidate the findings I believe is what the previous poster is saying.

Nomo - would you agree?

C

I got that part. I guess the confusing part about his response is the fact that my question has nothing to do with the CPU vs CPU sliders. They were about my own slider set..

[My993C2]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

I think he is saying that Nomo's set and research is based on cpu vs cpu games. Not any type of user input interaction. Once you take control of hitting, pitching, fielding, etc...his settings may not hold up.

Sounds like you are doing user hitting every half inning...that would invalidate the findings I believe is what the previous poster is saying.

Nomo - would you agree?

C

Exactly ... there is no reason why Nomo's or any other user's slider recommendations could not be tried in our own games where we pitch, bat and/or field. We just need to keep in mind that nomo does his analysis on CPU vs CPU games. I have a MLB 18 MoM Franchise going on right now where all the games my team (the Rockies) does not play in as a MoM game is a CPU vs CPU game and it is in the Franchise where nomo's slider recommendations would be a good target to use. I am also capturing CPU vs CPU results. Only difference is, is I do not do the detailed statistical analysis nomo does. I just eye ball the box scores and then move on to next game on the schedule as my goal is to have a better apples to apples comparison later on in the season when I look at stats as I just do not trust simmed games. Simmed games seem too random to my liking.

In summary, we can do anything that we want with the sliders. We just need to keep in mind what nomo is doing here and that is he is trying to find the best most realistic slider settings for CPU vs CPU games (as he does every year). Nomo is the sliderwhisperer.

[wisdom less13]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

Exactly ... there is no reason why Nomo's or any other user's slider recommendations could not be tried in our own games where we pitch, bat and/or field. We just need to keep in mind that nomo does his analysis on CPU vs CPU games. I have a MLB 18 MoM Franchise going on right now where all the games my team (the Rockies) does not play in as a MoM game is a CPU vs CPU game and it is in the Franchise where nomo's slider recommendations would be a good target to use. I am also capturing CPU vs CPU results. Only difference is, is I do not do the detailed statistical analysis nomo does. I just eye ball the box scores and then move on to next game on the schedule as my goal is to have a better apples to apples comparison later on in the season when I look at stats as I just do not trust simmed games. Simmed games seem too random to my liking.

In summary, we can do anything that we want with the sliders. We just need to keep in mind what nomo is doing here and that is he is trying to find the best most realistic slider settings for CPU vs CPU games (as he does every year). Nomo is the sliderwhisperer.

As a person who uses auto fielding, I've used his error settings forever. Never had a problem with them. If it ever became a glaring issue, I'd drop them down a bit. MOAR ERRORS!

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

Exactly ... there is no reason why Nomo's or any other user's slider recommendations could not be tried in our own games where we pitch, bat and/or field. We just need to keep in mind that nomo does his analysis on CPU vs CPU games. I have a MLB 18 MoM Franchise going on right now where all the games my team (the Rockies) does not play in as a MoM game is a CPU vs CPU game and it is in the Franchise where nomo's slider recommendations would be a good target to use. I am also capturing CPU vs CPU results. Only difference is, is I do not do the detailed statistical analysis nomo does. I just eye ball the box scores and then move on to next game on the schedule as my goal is to have a better apples to apples comparison later on in the season when I look at stats as I just do not trust simmed games. Simmed games seem too random to my liking.

In summary, we can do anything that we want with the sliders. We just need to keep in mind what nomo is doing here and that is he is trying to find the best most realistic slider settings for CPU vs CPU games (as he does every year). Nomo is the sliderwhisperer.

I think you sent that post as i was sending mine lol. Perfect timing. My question had nothing to do with his CPU vs CPU sliders, i was referring to my own slider set.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

Sorry for not responding sooner...

Im curious to know what you have seen as far as how wind affects statistics? How would you go about setting the wind slider? Or is it more of something that needs to be adjusted visually?

I know wind can effect home run numbers, but, if wind was at 10 for example, it seems that the wind (as a league-wide average) would help a lot of balls leave the park, but also knock just as many balls down the other way. And likewise if it were at 5 or 0. Maybe i am over simplifying it by not accounting for other wind directions. But do you see wind affecting stats? Or mainly just how game feels and plays?

I think statistically, it might even out over time...however, there could be more benefit for mid power guys getting balls out.

Big boys like Gallo, Sano, Judge...if they connect, it will carry out most of the time.

Lighter guys like Gordon, Hamilton, Pedroia - they probably aren't going out either way.

The 55-65 guys? I think that's where it can matter for if it blows out hard enough.

So I keep it lower to minimize that effect, though perhaps I should test higher once I'm sure things are settling in nicely.

I've looked at the Wind slider and its effect in the past (if you are curious, search my older threads in this or the last-gen forums with the word "wind" from a few years ago... I've posted some numbers).

I'm not entirely sure if anything has changed, but my conclusions at the time were (1) wind speed as recorded by the game may in general be faster than the numbers you get in real life and (2) stronger wind tends to increase HRs a little bit.

I don't think wind in the game is particularly realistic (this is understandable, as in real life how wind work in each ball park is rather complicated... but in the game wind basically linearly push the ball in one direction), so I'm not particularly concerned by (1). At the time, matching numbers, I tended to get more realistic distribution of wind speed at the Wind slider at 2 or 3.

The effect of (2) may be more important. I don't actually agree that stronger winds help mid Power guys more... the winds affect the HR numbers by acting most significantly on the balls that goes to the warning track or just goes over the fences, and that's when which way and how strong wind blows is very important. So it should affect hitters so long as they can generate power to those areas, regardless of their attributes (that means Power guys hit to the areas more frequently than mid-Power guys, so I don't think the effect is that selective).

I was curious why the overall HR frequency tended to increase than staying roughly the same; after all wind can blow out or in roughly at the same frequency.

But I think this is because of the fact that many more hits stay within the ball park than go over the fences (i.e., harder to hit further in general), so even if winds blow out or in at the same frequency, there are more borderline hits to the warning track available to be pushed over the fences than borderline HRs that get pushed in to the warning track. The end result may be a slight increase in HRs overall.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

And I wouldn't mind people discussing non-CPU issues in this thread. I've considered creating another thread for non-CPU stuff but I don't think it's necessary.

People hardly chime in these days, and so long as the discussions are around evidence-based approach to improving overall gaming experiences, I think they are good topics roughly in line with what I have wanted to do with making CPU sliders.

Sorry for not responding timely for the outstanding posts though. If I have something to add, I may respond at some point.

[NolanRyansSnowmonkey]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

No worries im usually in no hurry anyway, thanks to the snails-pace of baseball statistic stabilization.

I had found and old spreadsheet of yours from a different year before i posed the question. I found a few different wind settings in there but i didnt realize you had studied it specifically in a thread. I will definitely look it up.

I think the "CPU vs CPU only" responder to my question probably just hasnt read a good portion of the thread where we have discussed my personal Hum vs Cpu sliders a good bit, as well as KB's and yours to some degree. I knew that you and KB already was aware that i was referring to my own set. I asked early on if it would be ok to discuss it and you kindly welcomed it and i have learned more here than any other thread. So thank you, I appreciate it very much.

For a bit different direction, do you have any thoughts about the new PCI parameters, such as being able to move further out of the zone, etc? They seemed (to me) to clearly state they were choosing to remove some simulation components from hitting, and that, with one exception, it would affect single player as well...

One more question, it seems like you mentioned the PCI being locked into the zone back when the game first came out. Does this new patch 1.10 'unlock' it? Or were you referring to something else entirely?

[KBLover]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

The effect of (2) may be more important. I don't actually agree that stronger winds help mid Power guys more... the winds affect the HR numbers by acting most significantly on the balls that goes to the warning track or just goes over the fences, and that's when which way and how strong wind blows is very important. So it should affect hitters so long as they can generate power to those areas, regardless of their attributes (that means Power guys hit to the areas more frequently than mid-Power guys, so I don't think the effect is that selective).

I would imagine that a hitter like Judge isn't really hitting "warning track power" - that ball is going out. While a guy like Bogaerts, now he might hit warning track flies where the wind could push them out...or not.

Judge hits that same ball - it's gone in all likelihood because he has more power (reflected in his rating).

That's why it seems weird that a guy like Judge would get helped more by wind when he has his own natural carry to hit a ball 460 feet. What's the wind going to do to that ball that's already not a HR? 430 or 490...it's a HR.

Bogearts, the difference between a 350ft ball that goes to 370 or 330 can mean the difference between a HR and a fly out.

So that's really, really strange how The Show does it then.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

I would imagine that a hitter like Judge isn't really hitting "warning track power" - that ball is going out. While a guy like Bogaerts, now he might hit warning track flies where the wind could push them out...or not.

Judge hits that same ball - it's gone in all likelihood because he has more power (reflected in his rating).

That's why it seems weird that a guy like Judge would get helped more by wind when he has his own natural carry to hit a ball 460 feet. What's the wind going to do to that ball that's already not a HR? 430 or 490...it's a HR.

Bogearts, the difference between a 350ft ball that goes to 370 or 330 can mean the difference between a HR and a fly out.

So that's really, really strange how The Show does it then.

I am making number up here for the sake arguments, but what I meant is that wind does not discriminate based on the type of hitters.

That means so long as hits are to the warning track, it does not matter who hit them; the wind would affect them the same way (aside from more nuanced hit types, which I do not consider for simplicity... e.g., real power guys could hit line drives to the warning track but guys with less power can only hit fly balls there... and the latter probably gets affected by the wind more, but real power guys could get jammed a bit and still hit fly balls to the warning track... so in detail the situation isn't so clear cut, but I'm glossing over such details).

And who generates more hits to the warning track? It is still power guys; after all, many of their hits go over the fences, which means they have no issues generating warning track hits. The "waning track power" guys are called that because on relatively rare occasion they generate power, their batted balls still only get to the area, but not over the fences.

[BigOrangeVol4Life]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 18 Version Season-Mode Memorial Edition]

Nomo, I've started day 1 of Spring training using your latest roster set along with the newly-released hybrid roster featuring pitch edits, re-rates, etc. If you don't mind, I'll post several CPU vs CPU line scores as they finish to see how it all works with your sliders. So far, the Minnesota-Boston game looks great. Chris Sale is mowing them down.