Carolina Knights Update
JUNE 1, 2018

STANDINGS

TEAM SUMMARY
After the exuberance of OH MY GOD WE HAVE A BASEBALL TEAM!!! died down a little bit in Charlotte, the Knights finished April with a 10-21 record. Then, they went on to deal away newly-drafted veteran players Drew Pomeranz (to HOU), Mike Montgomery (to NYY), Mitch Moreland (to WAS), and Chase Utley (to LAD). Those combined moves slashed $17MM from an already very low $54.7MM payroll (and cut $8.5MM from next year's costs). More importantly, the moves netted a handful of prospects/depth and freed up some active roster spots for youngsters to get an extended try out.
May came along and Carolina...started playing pretty solid baseball. At one point in early May the Knights were 12-27, but now find themselves with a 25-35 record on June 1st. Yes, that means Carolina played winning baseball in the month of May (15-14). Heck, they even beat Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers 7-6 on a 10th inning Breyvic Valera walkoff sac fly on May 31st. Not bad. Not even in last place in the division. The Phillies have earned that spot as they jockey with Baltimore for worst team in baseball. Knights' GM/manager Bobby Cox is up to his old tricks in the dugout managing a weak roster to a +2 mark against its Pythagorean record.
So, what's the cause of the turnaround for Carolina?
Collin McHugh has been pitching like a T.O.R. starter in the month of May. He's won his last 3 decisions and even pitched a complete game in a 5-1 win over the Dodgers on May 29th. McHugh only needed 95 pitches to go 9 IP/5 H/1 BB/4 K because he had the ground ball working (12 GB outs). McHugh has shaved his ERA down from 5.98 at the end of April to 4.50. Luis Perdomo (promoted from AAA to take traded Drew Pomeranz's spot) and Derek Gordon (signed from indy ball to take demoted Matt Andriese's spot) have been serviceable. Perdomo is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA and Gordon is 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA.
The bullpen also has been fantastic of late. After a worrisome 5.36 ERA in April, the bullpen spun a 2.63 ERA in May. The 2.63 ERA trailed only LA's 2.59 bullpen ERA over that span. Closer Dellin Betances has been perfect in 15 save opportunities and carries gaudy numbers: 1.73 ERA, 61 FIP-, 15.2 K/9. He's allowing a measly 4.5 hits per 9 innings. His setup men Oliver Drake and Ryan Buchter have sub-3.00 ERA's and K/9 rates north of 11. Michael Lorenzen has been tremendous since taking over for demoted Jimmie Sherfy. In 24.1 IP, Lorenzen has a 1.48 ERA and a 5.5 K/BB ratio.
It's not all great news, though. The offense hasn't been much better. However, Steven Souza Jr. has hit for more power in May (5 HR) than in April (2 HR). Still, his .228/.295/.386 line is well below what was hoped for. Brett Gardner has cooled off a bit, but is still having the best all around season for a Carolina position player: .279/.354/.433 with 4 HR 26 RBI and 1.1 WAR while leading off and playing solid defense in left field.
Newcomers Breyvic Valera and A.J. Reed have been spotty, but no worse than the vets they replaced in the lineup. In Valera's first 20 games with Carolina, he's hitting .261/.281/.348 with 2 HR 15 RBI and a couple of game-winning hits. He's also playing steady, average defense at the keystone. Reed started with a bang--a 4-RBI game, but has been slumping since. His .167/.308/.389 batting line will earn him a trip back to AAA if it stays that way for too much longer. Reed does have 4 HR and 12 RBI and hasn't been as bad as expected on defense.
Without much in the way of trades to be made, 76-year-old Bobby Cox can settle into his "skipper" role and just see how things play out for the remainder of the summer. Cox doesn't forsee dealing any of Collin McHugh (because he's the team's 1st round expansion draft pick and arb-eligible next year at a reasonable rate), Dellin Betances (because he's amazing and also arb-eligible one more time), or Brett Gardner (because he's the team's 2nd round expansion draft pick and his professionalism is so badly needed with this young team). Maybe a few waiver claims (like taking Wilmer Font from LA on May 12th) are the only likely transactions ahead. Oh, and that small matter of the amateur draft coming up in 4 days. The Knights have the 2nd overall pick.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Big-money extensions:
Neil Walker (NYY): 5 years $87.6MM
Craig Kimbrel (BOS): 3 years $46.2MM
Michael Brantley (CLE): 6 years $86.2MM
Gio Gonzalez (WAS): 5 years $90MM
Major injuries:
Charlie Morton (MON): out for season (torn flexor tendon)
Chris Owings (MON): out for season (ruptured MCL)
Ender Inciarte (ATL): 4 months (torn Achilles tendon)
Dylan Bundy (BAL): out for season (Tommy John)
Luis Castillo (CIN): 5 months (ulnar nerve entrapment)
Trevor Bauer (CLE): 3 months (acute elbow soreness)
Jordan Zimmerman (DET): out for season (Tommy John)
Gerrit Cole (HOU): 4 months (torn back muscle)
Jose Altuve (HOU): 2 months (fractured hand)
Jesse Hahn (KC): out for season (Tommy John)
Jason Hammel (KC): out for season (Tommy John)
Ian Kennedy (KC): 5 months (radial nerve decompression surgery)
Garrett Richards (LAA): 7 months (radial nerve decompression surgery)
Alex Wood (LAD): 6 months (torn rotator cuff)
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY): 3 months (shoulder inflammation)
Jason Vargas (NYM): 6 months (torn back muscle)
Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 8 months (partially torn UCL)
AL MVP candidates:
Mookie Betts (BOS): .364/.405/.640 13 HR 28 RBI 186 wRC+ +6.9 ZR 4.1 WAR
Francisco Lindor (CLE): .307/.374/.550 14 HR 37 RBI 152 wRC+ +7.3 ZR 3.8 WAR
Alex Bregman (HOU): .338/.392/.592 12 HR 41 RBI 172 wRC+ 3.0 WAR
Chris Sale (BOS): 84.2 IP 6-2 1.91 ERA 0.65 WHIP 10.8 K/9 (102 K) 0.7 BB/9 (7 BB) 54 FIP-
NL MVP candidates:
A.J. Pollock (ARI): .317/.372/.570 9 HR 32 RBI 15 SB 148 wRC+ +5.5 ZR 3.2 WAR
Willson Contreras (CHC): .346/.400/.643 13 HR 34 RBI 187 wRC+ 3.1 WAR
Cody Bellinger (LAD): .299/.402/.612 17 HR 48 RBI 173 wRC+ +1.2 ZR 2.8 WAR
Max Scherzer (WAS): 80.2 IP 9-2 2.23 ERA 1.05 WHIP 11.5 K/9 (103 K) 2.8 BB/9 (25 BB) 64 FIP-
JUNE 1, 2018

STANDINGS
Spoiler


TEAM SUMMARY
Spoiler
After the exuberance of OH MY GOD WE HAVE A BASEBALL TEAM!!! died down a little bit in Charlotte, the Knights finished April with a 10-21 record. Then, they went on to deal away newly-drafted veteran players Drew Pomeranz (to HOU), Mike Montgomery (to NYY), Mitch Moreland (to WAS), and Chase Utley (to LAD). Those combined moves slashed $17MM from an already very low $54.7MM payroll (and cut $8.5MM from next year's costs). More importantly, the moves netted a handful of prospects/depth and freed up some active roster spots for youngsters to get an extended try out.
May came along and Carolina...started playing pretty solid baseball. At one point in early May the Knights were 12-27, but now find themselves with a 25-35 record on June 1st. Yes, that means Carolina played winning baseball in the month of May (15-14). Heck, they even beat Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers 7-6 on a 10th inning Breyvic Valera walkoff sac fly on May 31st. Not bad. Not even in last place in the division. The Phillies have earned that spot as they jockey with Baltimore for worst team in baseball. Knights' GM/manager Bobby Cox is up to his old tricks in the dugout managing a weak roster to a +2 mark against its Pythagorean record.
So, what's the cause of the turnaround for Carolina?
Collin McHugh has been pitching like a T.O.R. starter in the month of May. He's won his last 3 decisions and even pitched a complete game in a 5-1 win over the Dodgers on May 29th. McHugh only needed 95 pitches to go 9 IP/5 H/1 BB/4 K because he had the ground ball working (12 GB outs). McHugh has shaved his ERA down from 5.98 at the end of April to 4.50. Luis Perdomo (promoted from AAA to take traded Drew Pomeranz's spot) and Derek Gordon (signed from indy ball to take demoted Matt Andriese's spot) have been serviceable. Perdomo is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA and Gordon is 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA.
The bullpen also has been fantastic of late. After a worrisome 5.36 ERA in April, the bullpen spun a 2.63 ERA in May. The 2.63 ERA trailed only LA's 2.59 bullpen ERA over that span. Closer Dellin Betances has been perfect in 15 save opportunities and carries gaudy numbers: 1.73 ERA, 61 FIP-, 15.2 K/9. He's allowing a measly 4.5 hits per 9 innings. His setup men Oliver Drake and Ryan Buchter have sub-3.00 ERA's and K/9 rates north of 11. Michael Lorenzen has been tremendous since taking over for demoted Jimmie Sherfy. In 24.1 IP, Lorenzen has a 1.48 ERA and a 5.5 K/BB ratio.
It's not all great news, though. The offense hasn't been much better. However, Steven Souza Jr. has hit for more power in May (5 HR) than in April (2 HR). Still, his .228/.295/.386 line is well below what was hoped for. Brett Gardner has cooled off a bit, but is still having the best all around season for a Carolina position player: .279/.354/.433 with 4 HR 26 RBI and 1.1 WAR while leading off and playing solid defense in left field.
Newcomers Breyvic Valera and A.J. Reed have been spotty, but no worse than the vets they replaced in the lineup. In Valera's first 20 games with Carolina, he's hitting .261/.281/.348 with 2 HR 15 RBI and a couple of game-winning hits. He's also playing steady, average defense at the keystone. Reed started with a bang--a 4-RBI game, but has been slumping since. His .167/.308/.389 batting line will earn him a trip back to AAA if it stays that way for too much longer. Reed does have 4 HR and 12 RBI and hasn't been as bad as expected on defense.
Without much in the way of trades to be made, 76-year-old Bobby Cox can settle into his "skipper" role and just see how things play out for the remainder of the summer. Cox doesn't forsee dealing any of Collin McHugh (because he's the team's 1st round expansion draft pick and arb-eligible next year at a reasonable rate), Dellin Betances (because he's amazing and also arb-eligible one more time), or Brett Gardner (because he's the team's 2nd round expansion draft pick and his professionalism is so badly needed with this young team). Maybe a few waiver claims (like taking Wilmer Font from LA on May 12th) are the only likely transactions ahead. Oh, and that small matter of the amateur draft coming up in 4 days. The Knights have the 2nd overall pick.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Spoiler
Big-money extensions:
Neil Walker (NYY): 5 years $87.6MM
Craig Kimbrel (BOS): 3 years $46.2MM
Michael Brantley (CLE): 6 years $86.2MM
Gio Gonzalez (WAS): 5 years $90MM
Major injuries:
Charlie Morton (MON): out for season (torn flexor tendon)
Chris Owings (MON): out for season (ruptured MCL)
Ender Inciarte (ATL): 4 months (torn Achilles tendon)
Dylan Bundy (BAL): out for season (Tommy John)
Luis Castillo (CIN): 5 months (ulnar nerve entrapment)
Trevor Bauer (CLE): 3 months (acute elbow soreness)
Jordan Zimmerman (DET): out for season (Tommy John)
Gerrit Cole (HOU): 4 months (torn back muscle)
Jose Altuve (HOU): 2 months (fractured hand)
Jesse Hahn (KC): out for season (Tommy John)
Jason Hammel (KC): out for season (Tommy John)
Ian Kennedy (KC): 5 months (radial nerve decompression surgery)
Garrett Richards (LAA): 7 months (radial nerve decompression surgery)
Alex Wood (LAD): 6 months (torn rotator cuff)
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY): 3 months (shoulder inflammation)
Jason Vargas (NYM): 6 months (torn back muscle)
Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 8 months (partially torn UCL)
AL MVP candidates:
Mookie Betts (BOS): .364/.405/.640 13 HR 28 RBI 186 wRC+ +6.9 ZR 4.1 WAR
Francisco Lindor (CLE): .307/.374/.550 14 HR 37 RBI 152 wRC+ +7.3 ZR 3.8 WAR
Alex Bregman (HOU): .338/.392/.592 12 HR 41 RBI 172 wRC+ 3.0 WAR
Chris Sale (BOS): 84.2 IP 6-2 1.91 ERA 0.65 WHIP 10.8 K/9 (102 K) 0.7 BB/9 (7 BB) 54 FIP-
NL MVP candidates:
A.J. Pollock (ARI): .317/.372/.570 9 HR 32 RBI 15 SB 148 wRC+ +5.5 ZR 3.2 WAR
Willson Contreras (CHC): .346/.400/.643 13 HR 34 RBI 187 wRC+ 3.1 WAR
Cody Bellinger (LAD): .299/.402/.612 17 HR 48 RBI 173 wRC+ +1.2 ZR 2.8 WAR
Max Scherzer (WAS): 80.2 IP 9-2 2.23 ERA 1.05 WHIP 11.5 K/9 (103 K) 2.8 BB/9 (25 BB) 64 FIP-
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