Have a feeling.....Yankees

[Beantown]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

Yea, that's all A-Rod ever hits, including the 3 9th inning game winners he's hit this year, including one against god himself.

I didn't say he didn't hit big homeruns, I'm just saying the stat deeman posted doesn't really prove much. Like I said, the homeruns could have been when they were up by 6 or 7 runs already. Didn't say they were so don't get your panties in a bunch, Jets.

[snepp]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I didn't say he didn't hit big homeruns, I'm just saying the stat deeman posted doesn't really prove much. Like I said, the homeruns could have been when they were up by 6 or 7 runs already. Didn't say they were so don't get your panties in a bunch, Jets.

I guess you could check it out for yourself to see when they were hit.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...drial01&type=b

By my count 14 of the last 18 came in high leverage situations or very close games.

[Stu]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

1 game closer!

Actually, it's just back to 5 games.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

Technically that doesn't mean the homeruns aren't "meaningless" as they could come when the Yankees are up by 6 or 7 runs, which they have been quite a few times recently.

It's really funny just how wrong you are about him.

Edit - Now the Yankees as a whole... well people are conveniently posting in this thread now that the points have been made at least twice in the other thread about how weak their schedule has been since the AS break and how hot their offense has been. Hot offenses don't stay hot forever (their pitching staff has marched on as a league average staff all year too) and the schedule is getting tougher going forward.

[Beantown]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I guess you could check it out for yourself to see when they were hit.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...drial01&type=b

By my count 14 of the last 18 came in high leverage situations or very close games.

Yeah see, posting something like that would have been better.

Just saying that 17 of his last 18 HRs have come in wins doesn't show much.

[Gary Armida]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

Actually, it's just back to 5 games.

True...But, it sounds better the way I said it.

[Kashanova]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

i still say the yanks win the east, the pitching is must better, and the offense is playing like they usually have the past few yrs

[NYJets]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

It's really funny just how wrong you are about him.

Edit - Now the Yankees as a whole... well people are conveniently posting in this thread now that the points have been made at least twice in the other thread about how weak their schedule has been since the AS break and how hot their offense has been. Hot offenses don't stay hot forever (their pitching staff has marched on as a league average staff all year too) and the schedule is getting tougher going forward.

Pitching staff also didn't have Hughes or Chamberlain all year, and in the beginning of the year there was no Clemens, and they were throwing the likes of Chase Wright and Matt DeSalvo.

There pitching staff right now is better than league average.

[SPTO]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I will say this again

THE YANKS ARE NOT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS!

please don't please!

[oakfan162]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I will say this again

THE YANKS ARE NOT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS!

please don't please!

[Gary Armida]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

It's really funny just how wrong you are about him.

Edit - Now the Yankees as a whole... well people are conveniently posting in this thread now that the points have been made at least twice in the other thread about how weak their schedule has been since the AS break and how hot their offense has been. Hot offenses don't stay hot forever (their pitching staff has marched on as a league average staff all year too) and the schedule is getting tougher going forward.

Hearing footsteps?

The Yankee haters are out in force these days...

Here's why your reasoning is somewhat flawed (but hey, you are a Sox fan so you can't help yourself--kidding.)

1. The schedule is irrelevant. The Sox had their easy schedule as well and went out to a nice lead. The schedule will always even out.

2. The offense is now deep. Early in the season, we had zero bench. Now Giambi (nice pinch hit moonshot tonight), Duncan, and Betemit can all hit for power off the bench. Now, with all the depth, Matsui, Damon, Abreu can all rest because of the bench and, of course, Melky. So, yeah all offenses cool down, but when you are deep, team wide slumps are more rare. Also, I am a big believer in playing to the back of your baseball card. Some guys still need to get there.

3. The staff is now better than league average if they can stay healthy. Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes are guys that can go 7 and keep us in the game on a consistant basis. Rocket gives 6 strong and Mussina (I hate him) is pitching better. Joba, although early, could be our K-Rod this year. It's only a few innings, but he is filthy.

If injuries can stay away now, I really don't see taking the East as a problem. If the Sox beat the Yanks head to head then I will tip my cap to them.

I know the Yankee fans are coming out from the woodwork, but I was the guy saying this was going to happen when they were 15 games out.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

Wow. Bravo on the sports talk radio-esque "hearing footsteps" line. That's a throw away.

I also love how you refuse to take into account who the Yankees have played over the last month. Amazing. Yes, the schedule evens out over the season... but that's a different discussion entirely and completely ignores my point that they've been facing the league's worst teams. IMO the next few weeks will be much more telling for the Yankees than what they've done since the AS break since the schedule really toughens up. If you're going to look at how well or poorly a team is playing then it makes sense to look at who they've been playing. Here's a hint: it's harder to win against good teams and easier to win against bad teams. I don't think I would call TB, CHI, or KC very good. It's not like I'm making this up on the fly either, a lot of analysts were talking about this during the AS break as the Yankees best bet to make up a lot of ground. I still can't believe you don't think strength of opponents faced matters. Really amazing.

That isn't to say that the Yankees offense hasn't been great, it has and will continue to be to some degree because it has a ton of talent (actually, much much much much better names than Duncan and Betemit - wow btw, wow), but there's probably going to be a correction soon. They're good and all but they've been '27 Yankees good for a while now and, well, they just aren't the greatest offense in league history. Sorry. As for the pitching staff... it's been a constant. Check the numbers.

FWIW, I can't really stand most of the fans of either team. I love the sport and I love the way it can be broken down and analyzed but I don't particularly care for mindless the grandstanding.

[Kashanova]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

imo the turning point for the yanks was when arod hit that home run off papelbon

[GBrushTWood]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

imo the turning point for the yanks was when arod hit that home run off papelbon

Err...I may be wrong, but weren't they at least down by 14 games sometime after that home run?

Anyway, I think there's a good chance the Yankees complete this come back. The "easy schedule" argument is a lark and everybody knows it. So is the "they need to play .600 ball the rest of the way, the Sox only need to play .534.555 ball!"

I have heard these type of arguments for the last 4-5 years during the end of summer, and every time, the Yankees meet or exceed their expectations and take the division. You can not predict the outcome of games six weeks in advance.

Meanwhile, this year, the biggest problem is that Ortiz is injured and a lot of his power is sapped. In addition, Ramirez is not hitting like we are accustomed to. The core of the Red Sox lineup is not producing like expected, and even though other guys guys in the lineup are having solid years (Pedroia, Youkilis, Lowell), this Red Sox team can not compete with the Yankees in a slugfest. This is another reason why having J.D. Drew hit .250 is really killer.

So I'm not a SABR guy or anything, but I'd say the Yankees have at least a 50% chance of taking the division, just because they can steamroll teams pretty easily at this point. Why might the Red Sox win the division? Their pitching should keep them in the hunt until October, assuming none of the starters get injured.
I think the Red Sox just need to get into October, then hope the starting pitching gets hot and can ride them through a couple series. This offense isn't going to win them a ring in 2007 though.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

Err...I may be wrong, but weren't they at least down by 14 games sometime after that home run?

Anyway, I think there's a good chance the Yankees complete this come back. The "easy schedule" argument is a lark and everybody knows it.

Okay, I give up, it's equally difficult to play against the worst teams in the league as the best teams. I'm just going to let this one go because it's like arguing that the sky isn't neon green. Actually, no, I'm not going to let it go - how can you possibly believe that strength of opponents faced doesn't matter when looking at a team's performance over a length of games? Absolutely unbelievable. Are you serious? Really?

As for postseason odds, no, you're not a SABR guy. Baseball prospectus has the Yankees at ~9% to win the division, ~59% to take the Wild Card, and ~68% to make the playoffs. Red Sox are currently at ~90% to take the division, ~8% to end up with the Wild Card, and ~99% chance at making the playoffs. Numbers are fun if you're willing to actually look at them: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...cs/ps_odds.php

Meanwhile folks like GBrush are pegging the Yankees at 50/50 to take the division because they're a steamroller or something. I'll go with BP though, 68% chance to make the playoffs (which is all that really matters unless you're a knuckle-dragger like Murray Chass or something). I might even say better than that 68% number considering the condition of some of the other Wild Card teams.