Have a feeling.....Yankees

**GBrushTWood** · 08-12-2007, 12:08 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I recall obsessing over those very same BP numbers 2 years ago, in 2005. They had the Red Sox as something like 80% favorites to take the AL East around this time of the season. I don't recall the exact numbers, but the point is, they projected the Red Sox as strong favorites to win the division. Why did the Red Sox not win the division that year?

Things changed with that team. Hitters showed their age and slumped terribly, that patchwork bullpen fell apart and was held together by duct tape and rope (a just called up Papelbon and Mike Timlin in his last effective stint). The point is, things changed.

These projections don't take into account dynamic, constantly changing factors such as a team getting hot towards the end of the season, getting previously injured guys to a healthier state, or adding a guy from the minor leagues who may make a huge difference (Chamberlain).

You can call me a knuckle dragger or whatever, but until these formulas somehow take those factors into account, they are flawed and not the be all, end all. The Red Sox may be 90% favorites to win the division today according to BP, but I look at 5 games difference in the standings and that doesn't seem like a lot with a couple series left between the teams. Hey, I love empirically analyzing data as much as anybody, but I know for damn sure that nobody can predict the future, much less a man made math function.

About the strength of schedule argument: Obviously winning against just the terrible teams means nothing. But there's something to be said for gaining confidence, coming together against the crap teams, and then reproducing those results against the better teams. Yankees have trounced the Indians the last two nights, holding them to 3 combined runs. The Indians are leading the American League Central.

They are not just beating up on the weaker teams anymore, I'm afraid. Simply stonewalling the alternative while holding out a BP formula as evidence isn't going to cut it anymore.

**ComfortablyLomb** · 08-12-2007, 12:35 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I think you're talking about last year's team maybe. They broke down due to injuries. Injuries are bad and cause chaos with projections. Two years ago they went to the playoffs (and were beaten down by the White Sox handily).

Admittedly cherry picking dates here but the Indians are 7-12 since the start of their series with the Sox a few weeks ago. Not exactly hot at the moment. Not exactly very meaningful either since they are pretty good but it's worth noting since you like the hot or not thing.

A 90% favorite still has a chance of losing 10% of the time. That's significant. If you're going into a surgery with a 90% rate of survival you're actually facing terrible odds because the alternative is death, nothing, zero. You don't want that. The more significant number is the 99%. Unless something ugly happens they're getting to the big dance.

**NYJets** · 08-12-2007, 01:19 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

Everybody knows their schedule has been very weak since the all star break.

You don't need to be above talk radio to figure that out. But that doesn't mean they are suddenly going to stop winning. Fact is, the Yankees are also a much better team than they were before the all star break. The pitching is completely healthy, and they have the rotation and bullpen they will most likely have for the rest of the year. The bench that was once the worst in baseball is now maybe the best. And a lot of established major league hitters are now hitting. Of course some of that is because they've faced weak hitters, but, say, Abreu, for example is an all star player. He doesn't exactly have to prove he can hit against good pitching, and he is still below his career averages, so there's a good chance he's going to continue to play well and get a little closer to them.

Also, if you want to try and predict the future and just use stats instead of logic, the Yankees are still underperforming their pythagorean record more than any other team in baseball, so odds are they are going to continue to get closer to that.

**elicoleman** · 08-12-2007, 04:14 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

MILLAR!

Only 4 games back now.

**GBrushTWood** · 08-12-2007, 04:28 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

But...but..Baseball Prospectus says we are 90% favorites to win the decision!!

Good f'n christ. I would be laughing right now if this wasn't my team.

This Red Sox team sucks and the Yankees are coming on like a freight train.

**Briman123** · 08-12-2007, 04:28 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

I HATE ERIC GAGNE HE HAS LOST US 2 GAMES!!!!!!!!

And Kevin ****ing Millah walk of homerun (though he could of won it with a popup and scored a sacfly) just stings.

4 game lead now absolutely pathetic... Might as well have a Yanks vs Sox series so they can sweep us.

**Kashanova** · 08-12-2007, 04:31 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

thanks gagne, lets hope we sweep the home stand and the angels rock the sox

**BunnyHardaway** · 08-12-2007, 04:34 PM

Re: Have a feeling.....Yankees

We won a series against the Red Sox? Holy ****.

**NYJets** · 08-12-2007, 04:38 PM