Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I like WTNY's list, minus Hoffman.

Thanks! Let me explain my Hoffman.

I don't think Hoffman is that bad of a candidate. The guy has 601 saves, which is a ridiculously high amount even if folks don't necessary like the "save" stat or how modern bullpens operate. In addition to that, the guy had great /9 numbers, struck out 9.3 per 9 and walked 2.5 per 9. His ERA- and FIP- are both in the low 70s for his career, which is better than basically any other RP currently enshrined. Hoffman was easily one of the best at his position (closer) of all time, if not the absolute best. He featured one of the signature pitches of all time (his changeup). By all accounts, he was a decent dude and didn't nearly bankrupt the state of Rhode Island (like Schilling, which is part of the reason he's a maybe for me, lol). Hoffman's career ERA (2.87) and WHIP (1.06) will look mighty good next to anyone. He is a member of the 1000 appearance club so he was durable. His career 26.3 fWAR is very impressive for a relief pitcher. The fact that his best season (1998) coincides with San Diego's only trip in franchise history to the World Series (I don't count 1984 for personal reasons) is a feather in his cap as well.

Some people might not like the save, or might not like putting RPs in the Hall in general, but, in my opinion, Hoffman would be the best purely relief pitcher in the HoF. Better than Gossage and Fingers. So, I think he has the "if so and so is in, then we can put such and such in" argument (which I dislike) in his favor also.

Can anyone come up with a valid case against Hoffman other than he didn't meet a minimum WAR threshhold? That's what I think it boils down to for a lot of SABR-inclined folks.

[dubcity]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

If closers are treated like catchers, meaning they are compared more to players at their position than to the overall player pool, than Hoffman is a lock. And I'd be okay with that. He's at or near the top all-time at closer. Having that WHIP as a closer for that many years is crazy.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I dunno. Jonathan Papelbon has a 65 FIP- on his career. Koji, 62. Wade Davis, 44 as a reliever.

Sean Marshall has a 65, lol. A 72 FIP- is great over a whole career but it's not even top 20 all time at his own position. If Trevor Hoffman is a hall of famer, what reason besides saves do we have that Sean Marshall, Takashi Saito and Joe Nathan aren't all hall of famers as well?

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

If closers are treated like catchers, meaning they are compared more to players at their position than to the overall player pool, than Hoffman is a lock. And I'd be okay with that. He's at or near the top all-time at closer. Having that WHIP as a closer for that many years is crazy.

Pitching one inning every couple of days and getting to throw max effort is much, much easier than catching.

They're on completely opposite ends in terms of the thresholds I would apply to them. I'd vote for a top 15 all-time catcher, for example, but if you're a closer, you'd have to be head-and-shoulders above any other closer in the game's history.

Mariano Rivera is the only closer I'd vote for without thinking twice about it. The other guys are borderline, at best.

[Speedy]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Pitching one inning every couple of days and getting to throw max effort is much, much easier than catching.

Presuming you're talking about everyday baseball, I disagree vehemently.

[lhslancers]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Presuming you're talking about everyday baseball, I disagree vehemently.

Kidding right? Throwing 15 pitches once every other day is much easier than crouching calling a game getting your fingers busted up blocking junk in the dirt and oh BTW hitting 125 games a year.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Well, you also have to consider arm up pitches, but yeah, catching seems like one of the more difficult things to do in professional sports.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Presuming you're talking about everyday baseball, I disagree vehemently.

Sure, closing can be stressful. It's not easy, but they're not every day players, throw one inning at a time, and get to throw as hard as they can. Catching is the most physically punishing aspect of the sport.

I don't have a problem applying a lower standard for catchers since it's a tough position to accumulate a lot of value at (and tough to quantify, too), but even the borderline catchers are putting up 40+ career WAR. The best non-Rivera closers ever hover in the 20-30 WAR range. I don't feel comfortable putting players like that in the HOF.

Sorry, but guys like Hoffman, as awesome as they were in their niche roles, just didn't have enough of an impact on the game for me to put them in. The lack of quantity outweighs the great quality.

[lhslancers]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Sure, closing can be stressful. It's not easy, but they're not every day players, throw one inning at a time, and get to throw as hard as they can. Catching is the most physically punishing aspect of the sport.

I don't have a problem applying a lower standard for catchers since it's a tough position to accumulate a lot of value at (and tough to quantify, too), but even the borderline catchers are putting up 40+ career WAR. The best non-Rivera closers ever hover in the 20-30 WAR range. I don't feel comfortable putting players like that in the HOF.

Sorry, but guys like Hoffman, as awesome as they were in their niche roles, just didn't have enough of an impact on the game for me to put them in. The lack of quantity outweighs the great quality.

In Hoffman's defense he didn't have a lot of chances in the post season so he didn't have a chance to add to his credentials there. IIRC though he did have a habit of spitting the bit in big spots a bit too often unlike Mariano.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I dunno. Jonathan Papelbon has a 65 FIP- on his career. Koji, 62. Wade Davis, 44 as a reliever.

Sean Marshall has a 65, lol. A 72 FIP- is great over a whole career but it's not even top 20 all time at his own position. If Trevor Hoffman is a hall of famer, what reason besides saves do we have that Sean Marshall, Takashi Saito and Joe Nathan aren't all hall of famers as well?

None of those guys have the longevity, reputation, or counting stats of Hoffman. I think the excellent rate stats plus the longevity and being 2nd all-time in the stat that defines his position makes a good case.

Just as easily as someone can comp Hoffman to guys like John Franco or Takashi Saito (guys obviously not getting in), I can comp him to Gossage, Fingers, Rivera etc..(guys that are in/will be in).

Sure, closing can be stressful. It's not easy, but they're not every day players, throw one inning at a time, and get to throw as hard as they can. Catching is the most physically punishing aspect of the sport.

I don't have a problem applying a lower standard for catchers since it's a tough position to accumulate a lot of value at (and tough to quantify, too), but even the borderline catchers are putting up 40+ career WAR. The best non-Rivera closers ever hover in the 20-30 WAR range. I don't feel comfortable putting players like that in the HOF.

Sorry, but guys like Hoffman, as awesome as they were in their niche roles, just didn't have enough of an impact on the game for me to put them in. The lack of quantity outweighs the great quality.

I think it's a mistake to turn nose up at an aspect that is a very real part of baseball--the bullpen.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Should Gossage be in, though? Or Fingers? I dunno. The only difference between these guys and Junichi Tazawa is that at some point, a manager entrusted them to collect rather meaningless things called "saves."

Good relievers are a dime a dozen. That doesn't mean a bullpen isn't important as a whole; it just means that the individual players that make it up has significantly less value. The Jays went into the year with scrubs in their pen and have one of the best xFIP's in the league right now.

I really think it should be Mo, and no one else.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Should Gossage be in, though? Or Fingers? I dunno. The only difference between these guys and Junichi Tazawa is that at some point, a manager entrusted them to collect rather meaningless things called "saves."

Good relievers are a dime a dozen. That doesn't mean a bullpen isn't important as a whole; it just means that the individual players that make it up has significantly less value. The Jays went into the year with scrubs in their pen and have one of the best xFIP's in the league right now.

I really think it should be Mo, and no one else.

Gossage and Fingers get a lot of credit for being bullpen pioneers in addition to their actual performance. It's open to debate whether they both belong solely on their stats.

One thing you hit on, that I don't think people appreciate enough, is that any scrub reliever can have a good year, but almost nobody can sustain that for an entire 15-20 year career. This is part of the reason it's generally accepted nowadays that bullpen arms are a dime a dozen and not a wise long term investment. The position of being a RP is death on the arm as well, which perhaps isn't appreciated as much as it could be. Firing it up to 100% for an inning or 2 takes a heavy toll doing that 80 times a season (and warming up fully probably another 15-20 times) in the highest leverage spots possible. The ones that succeed massively like Rivera, and Hoffman, and probably a few others are at least worthy of possibly making the HoF. I certainly wouldn't bar them because they are merely RPs and don't fit my WAR criterion.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

In Hoffman's defense he didn't have a lot of chances in the post season so he didn't have a chance to add to his credentials there. IIRC though he did have a habit of spitting the bit in big spots a bit too often unlike Mariano.

Rivera's career ERA- and FIP- was 22 points and 10 points lower than Hoffman's, respectively. He was a much better regular season performer than Hoffman.

Here's the difference in one graph:

<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=1085923&type=graph sw&num=2&h=450&w=450&players=844,1035" scrolling="no" style="border:1px solid black;" frameborder="0" height="450" width="450"></iframe>
Source: FanGraphs -- Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman

And that's based on FIP too, which ignores how good Rivera was at inducing weak contact. If you're going by RA/9 WAR (which captures Rivera's BABIP-suppressing skills), it's ~55 WAR for Rivera to Hoffman's ~28.

Throw in the ridiculous postseason dominance (0.70 ERA, lol) and Rivera's the one exception I'll make to my anti-closer bias. He's a no-doubter.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

As an aside, I think that if someone like Papelbon were to sustain his performance at his current level for another 5-7 years, he'd be another guy I'd give a long look to for the HoF.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I think it's a mistake to turn nose up at an aspect that is a very real part of baseball--the bullpen.

The bullpen collectively is super-important, especially come playoff time.

Individual relievers are not super-important because they don't pitch enough.