With a little over a month to go in the regular season, the who's who of Cy Young hopefuls and MVP contenders is coming into view. For whatever reason, the Cy Young race has always interested me far more than any other post season award in any other sport. After last year's display by the BBWAA, I'm hopeful the best guys will win again but as long as the Jon Heyman's of the world have a ballot there's no guarantee of anything.
This year's competition looks great though. Most years there's a couple of guys, but sometimes there's a collective of lukewarm contenders with no clear cut favorite. This year is shaping up to be one of those rare years where there's multiple guys in each league who have a case. As of August 22nd, these are the guys I think who have a shot:
NL
Roy Halladay - Halladay leads all major league relievers in pitching WAR at 6.4. The next closest in the NL is Josh Johnson and his 5.6. That's a gap that will be tough to close between now and the end of the season but not impossible (especially if the Phillies are able to clinch a post season slot and give Halladay some much needed rest). If you don't like WAR though there are plenty of other reasons to look at Halladay. He leads all starters with an even 200 innings pitched as this point (Carpenter is the next closest as 184) and sports a nifty 2.16 ERA. He's struck out 180 while walking only 25 and completed 8 games, 3 of which were shutouts. His FIP and xFIP are at 2.66 (2nd in the league) and 2.89 (best in baseball), respectively.
Josh Johnson - Johnson is sort of new to the Cy Young debate but he's having a great season. He's got a K/9 of 8.75 and a BB/9 of just 2.05, good for a K/BB of 4.26. His FIP of 2.46 is best in the NL while his xFIP is a still good 3.17. His WAR, as previously mentioned, stands at 5.6 and his more traditional stats are not unkind as well, evidenced by his 2.27 ERA.
Adam Wainwright - Wainwright had a case last year and he's back in the discussion this year. He sports a WAR of 5 even and leads baseball with a 2.06 ERA and is tied with a few others in WHIP at .98. His advanced stats aren't quite as sparkling. While he averages over 8 K/9 his K/BB is a less than stellar 3.84 and contrarians will point to his exceptionally low .262 BABIP and suggest luck. His FIP and xFIP though are still fairly low which helps keep him in the conversation with marks of .285 and 3.15.
Ubaldo Jimenez - Everyone's pick on May 1st has had trouble maintaining his the dominance he displayed in April. And really, who wouldn't? He was unsustainably good but even though he's come back down to earth the overall numbers are still impressive. He's contributed 4.8 wins on the season and has a tidy 2.66 ERA. His FIP and xFIP, 3.13 and 3.75. Where he hurts is with his efficiency. His K/9 is quite good at 8.29, but his BB/9 is at 3.51 giving him a pedestrian 2.36 K/BB. He needs a dominant last month to re-enter the discussion.
Apologies to: Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Yovani Gallardo.
AL
Cliff Lee - Lee has been one of the big stories in the league, on and off the field. When his name wasn't mentioned in trade talks he was out dominating the AL West, putting on a clinic in pitch efficiency. His K/BB of 13.73 is far and away the best in baseball. And while his strikeouts are at a respectable rate of 7.78 per nine, he's really helped himself out by walking just .57 hitters per nine. If you're curious, that's 157 strikeouts to just 11 walks on the season so far. He has not been especially lucky as his BABIP sits at .301, a tick above league average, and his strand rate a modest 69%. If anything he's been unlucky, as he sits just 3 games over .500 (the last time I'll mention anything having to do with wins and losses). His FIP and xFIP on the year are at 2.54 and 3.27. xFIP penalizes him for his low 6% homerun per fly ball rate but that number is in line with the 6.5% he posted in 09 and 5.1% he had in '08. By any measure though, he's having a special season.
Felix Hernandez - Toiling away in obscurity up in Seattle, Hernandez was just barely edged out last year by Greinke in the AL and this year he may just end up lost in the shuffle. He's third in the AL with a 5.2 mark in WAR and has produced rate stats of 8.36 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9. He has very quietly lead the AL with 197 innings pitched (Sabathia is next closest with 181) and has an ERA, FIP, xFIP of 2.51/3.03/3.29. He's benefitted some from the largely mediocre offenses of the AL West but he doesn't make the schedule. It seems crazy considering the hype he came up with but he's very quietly become one of the best pitchers in AL over the past two seasons.
Francisco Liriano - Liriano is the best story in baseball that ESPN seems disinterested in. Now fully back from TJ surgery, Liriano is the dominant lefty the Twins envisioned he would become before his injury. He's striking out 9.81 batters per nine will walking 2.97. His ERA is at 3.45 but he's been victimized by lady luck this year with a .350 BABIP which brings his FIP and xFIP marks down to 2.33 and 3.00, which both lead the league. Though if I'm going to mention his bad luck I should also mention his good luck captured by the 3 homeruns he's allowed on the season (2 came in one game). Even if he doesn't win the hardware, the Twins have got to be happy with what he's shown this year.
After those three things get a little bunched up with 5 guys contributing between 4.3 and 3.9 wins. To highlight a few, Jered Weavers leads the AL in strikeouts but he's also walking 4.33 batters per nine. Jon Lester has punched out better than a batter per inning and has basically pitched to his FIP of 3.23. Greinke has been good, just not nearly as good as he was last year. If you're a big proponent of ERA than Clay Buchholz's league leading 2.36 might impress you, but his 133 innings pitched, 89 strikeouts, and .262 BABIP won't.
Apologies to: David Price, Mariano Rivera, Ricky Romero, and Colby Lewis.
This year's competition looks great though. Most years there's a couple of guys, but sometimes there's a collective of lukewarm contenders with no clear cut favorite. This year is shaping up to be one of those rare years where there's multiple guys in each league who have a case. As of August 22nd, these are the guys I think who have a shot:
NL
Roy Halladay - Halladay leads all major league relievers in pitching WAR at 6.4. The next closest in the NL is Josh Johnson and his 5.6. That's a gap that will be tough to close between now and the end of the season but not impossible (especially if the Phillies are able to clinch a post season slot and give Halladay some much needed rest). If you don't like WAR though there are plenty of other reasons to look at Halladay. He leads all starters with an even 200 innings pitched as this point (Carpenter is the next closest as 184) and sports a nifty 2.16 ERA. He's struck out 180 while walking only 25 and completed 8 games, 3 of which were shutouts. His FIP and xFIP are at 2.66 (2nd in the league) and 2.89 (best in baseball), respectively.
Josh Johnson - Johnson is sort of new to the Cy Young debate but he's having a great season. He's got a K/9 of 8.75 and a BB/9 of just 2.05, good for a K/BB of 4.26. His FIP of 2.46 is best in the NL while his xFIP is a still good 3.17. His WAR, as previously mentioned, stands at 5.6 and his more traditional stats are not unkind as well, evidenced by his 2.27 ERA.
Adam Wainwright - Wainwright had a case last year and he's back in the discussion this year. He sports a WAR of 5 even and leads baseball with a 2.06 ERA and is tied with a few others in WHIP at .98. His advanced stats aren't quite as sparkling. While he averages over 8 K/9 his K/BB is a less than stellar 3.84 and contrarians will point to his exceptionally low .262 BABIP and suggest luck. His FIP and xFIP though are still fairly low which helps keep him in the conversation with marks of .285 and 3.15.
Ubaldo Jimenez - Everyone's pick on May 1st has had trouble maintaining his the dominance he displayed in April. And really, who wouldn't? He was unsustainably good but even though he's come back down to earth the overall numbers are still impressive. He's contributed 4.8 wins on the season and has a tidy 2.66 ERA. His FIP and xFIP, 3.13 and 3.75. Where he hurts is with his efficiency. His K/9 is quite good at 8.29, but his BB/9 is at 3.51 giving him a pedestrian 2.36 K/BB. He needs a dominant last month to re-enter the discussion.
Apologies to: Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Yovani Gallardo.
AL
Cliff Lee - Lee has been one of the big stories in the league, on and off the field. When his name wasn't mentioned in trade talks he was out dominating the AL West, putting on a clinic in pitch efficiency. His K/BB of 13.73 is far and away the best in baseball. And while his strikeouts are at a respectable rate of 7.78 per nine, he's really helped himself out by walking just .57 hitters per nine. If you're curious, that's 157 strikeouts to just 11 walks on the season so far. He has not been especially lucky as his BABIP sits at .301, a tick above league average, and his strand rate a modest 69%. If anything he's been unlucky, as he sits just 3 games over .500 (the last time I'll mention anything having to do with wins and losses). His FIP and xFIP on the year are at 2.54 and 3.27. xFIP penalizes him for his low 6% homerun per fly ball rate but that number is in line with the 6.5% he posted in 09 and 5.1% he had in '08. By any measure though, he's having a special season.
Felix Hernandez - Toiling away in obscurity up in Seattle, Hernandez was just barely edged out last year by Greinke in the AL and this year he may just end up lost in the shuffle. He's third in the AL with a 5.2 mark in WAR and has produced rate stats of 8.36 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9. He has very quietly lead the AL with 197 innings pitched (Sabathia is next closest with 181) and has an ERA, FIP, xFIP of 2.51/3.03/3.29. He's benefitted some from the largely mediocre offenses of the AL West but he doesn't make the schedule. It seems crazy considering the hype he came up with but he's very quietly become one of the best pitchers in AL over the past two seasons.
Francisco Liriano - Liriano is the best story in baseball that ESPN seems disinterested in. Now fully back from TJ surgery, Liriano is the dominant lefty the Twins envisioned he would become before his injury. He's striking out 9.81 batters per nine will walking 2.97. His ERA is at 3.45 but he's been victimized by lady luck this year with a .350 BABIP which brings his FIP and xFIP marks down to 2.33 and 3.00, which both lead the league. Though if I'm going to mention his bad luck I should also mention his good luck captured by the 3 homeruns he's allowed on the season (2 came in one game). Even if he doesn't win the hardware, the Twins have got to be happy with what he's shown this year.
After those three things get a little bunched up with 5 guys contributing between 4.3 and 3.9 wins. To highlight a few, Jered Weavers leads the AL in strikeouts but he's also walking 4.33 batters per nine. Jon Lester has punched out better than a batter per inning and has basically pitched to his FIP of 3.23. Greinke has been good, just not nearly as good as he was last year. If you're a big proponent of ERA than Clay Buchholz's league leading 2.36 might impress you, but his 133 innings pitched, 89 strikeouts, and .262 BABIP won't.
Apologies to: David Price, Mariano Rivera, Ricky Romero, and Colby Lewis.
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