7/8 - 7/14 Game Discussion Thread

[lonewolf371]

Re: 7/8 - 7/14 Game Discussion Thread

The more walks are caused by the more home runs. After all, he has already hit more home runs than he did in 139 games last year.

Also those 33 last year came at a rate of 17 PA/HR. His career numbers before this season was 21 PA/HR. This year? 9.3 PA/HR. People talked about Jose Bautista when he went from 22 PA/HR in 2006-2008, then started showing a lot of power in late 2009 and was at a rate of 10.5 PA/HR in 2010-2011.

You mentioned Gonzalez and Anderson, but who you really should have mentioned is Bonds. Know what Barry Bonds' rates were in 2001? 9.1 PA/HR. And he didn't have near the jump from prior years (closer to 12-16 PA/HR) that Chris Davis has had because he happened to always have some power as well; he just got a heckuva lot more of it in 2001.

I'm not saying he is taking anything, but you can't say "the power has always been there" either. Some power, yes, but not at this rate.

Considering this HR/PA logic Babe Ruth would have done steroids.

[BunnyHardaway]

Re: 7/8 - 7/14 Game Discussion Thread

You mentioned Gonzalez and Anderson, but who you really should have mentioned is Bonds. Know what Barry Bonds' rates were in 2001? 9.1 PA/HR. And he didn't have near the jump from prior years (closer to 12-16 PA/HR) that Chris Davis has had because he happened to always have some power as well; he just got a heckuva lot more of it in 2001.

I'm not saying he is taking anything, but you can't say "the power has always been there" either. Some power, yes, but not at this rate.

Forgot to address this point.

I don't understand why Bonds is brought up. Let's just say for arguments sake that Bonds started using steroids in 2001. Before 2001, he hit 494 HR and was most likely a Hall of Fame lock even if he had retired at that point. While the other 268 HR he hit were likely steroid-aided, it's not like his power came out of nowhere, which is why I brought up Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez.

Brady Anderson 1991-95: 38.2 AB/HR
Brady Anderson 1996: 11.6 AB/HR

Luis Gonzalez 1991-2000: 30.9 AB/HR
Luis Gonzalez 2001: 10.7 AB/HR

Chris Davis 2008-12: 19.7 AB/HR
Chris Davis 2013: 9.3 AB/HR

Brady Anderson hit 50 HR in 1996. In the 5 seasons prior to that, he hit 64 home runs combined. Luis Gonzalez only had two 20+ HR seasons prior to 2001 when he hit 57. Those guys came out of nowhere to hit a ridiculous amount of home runs.

Like I said, Crush hit 33 homers last year in his first full season. He hit 21 for the Rangers in '09 in 113 games. He's shown this power all throughout the minors. He's in his age 27 year which is considered by most to be the approximate start of a player's peak years. He's finally getting consistent at bats and isn't being yo-yo'd from the majors to the minors. Of course the AB/HR is going to be ridiculous because he's on pace to have a Ruthian season, but it's not like his AB/HR from other years was pedestrian. I don't see how he could be considered a "power developed overnight" guy like Brady or Gonzalez.

[Redacted01]

Re: 7/8 - 7/14 Game Discussion Thread

Considering this HR/PA logic Babe Ruth would have done steroids.

Nope. Ruth was always around that level. He didn't have a sudden jump once he quit pitching full time. Once he started playing over 100 games a year, he was always between 11 and 18. He never had single digits ever. From 1919 (last year in Boston) to 1933, his PA/HR look like this: 18, 11, 12, 14, 17, 15, 17, 14, 12, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 17. Davis hasn't had as much playing time, but in his seasons with 100+ games, he's closer to 18-20, not 10. All I'm pointing out.

Forgot to address this point.

I don't understand why Bonds is brought up. Let's just say for arguments sake that Bonds started using steroids in 2001. Before 2001, he hit 494 HR and was most likely a Hall of Fame lock even if he had retired at that point. While the other 268 HR he hit were likely steroid-aided, it's not like his power came out of nowhere, which is why I brought up Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez.

Brady Anderson 1991-95: 38.2 AB/HR
Brady Anderson 1996: 11.6 AB/HR

Luis Gonzalez 1991-2000: 30.9 AB/HR
Luis Gonzalez 2001: 10.7 AB/HR

Chris Davis 2008-12: 19.7 AB/HR
Chris Davis 2013: 9.3 AB/HR

Brady Anderson hit 50 HR in 1996. In the 5 seasons prior to that, he hit 64 home runs combined. Luis Gonzalez only had two 20+ HR seasons prior to 2001 when he hit 57. Those guys came out of nowhere to hit a ridiculous amount of home runs.

Like I said, Crush hit 33 homers last year in his first full season. He hit 21 for the Rangers in '09 in 113 games. He's shown this power all throughout the minors. He's in his age 27 year which is considered by most to be the approximate start of a player's peak years. He's finally getting consistent at bats and isn't being yo-yo'd from the majors to the minors. Of course the AB/HR is going to be ridiculous because he's on pace to have a Ruthian season, but it's not like his AB/HR from other years was pedestrian. I don't see how he could be considered a "power developed overnight" guy like Brady or Gonzalez.

I never compared him to Brady or Gonzalez, you did, and they aren't the same, so not sure why you use them to make a point. I'm using someone that was also a known steroid user who did actually have power and then went to a level that very, very few have gotten to (and no one has without assistance). And I told you why I brought up Bonds. A guy that had no problem hitting home runs, which is what you say about Davis. But then suddenly, he hits home runs at around twice is career rate? Bonds' increase wasn't as sudden, but he was also much older.

Like I said, the same thing happened to Bautista. Toronto kept him in the majors, gave him a position and playing time every day and he started hitting home runs, and has continued to do so. People thought after the 54 year, he'd go back to being a scrub and then he led the league again. If Davis hits 60+ this year (very possible), and next year goes back and hits ~35, people are going to wonder. You can't argue your way out of that. People don't just suddenly hit home runs twice as often (after getting nearly a full season of starts, ~140 games) and don't get questioned in this day in age.

[JBH3]

Chris Davis has always had power though, he was either blocked in the Rangers farm system or slumped his way into minor league ball.

A Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez comp is thoughtless because it doesnt factor that those two were near the end of their careers whereas Davis is still very young and developing.

[BunnyHardaway]

Re: 7/8 - 7/14 Game Discussion Thread

Nope. Ruth was always around that level. He didn't have a sudden jump once he quit pitching full time. Once he started playing over 100 games a year, he was always between 11 and 18. He never had single digits ever. From 1919 (last year in Boston) to 1933, his PA/HR look like this: 18, 11, 12, 14, 17, 15, 17, 14, 12, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14, 17. Davis hasn't had as much playing time, but in his seasons with 100+ games, he's closer to 18-20, not 10. All I'm pointing out.



I never compared him to Brady or Gonzalez, you did, and they aren't the same, so not sure why you use them to make a point. I'm using someone that was also a known steroid user who did actually have power and then went to a level that very, very few have gotten to (and no one has without assistance). And I told you why I brought up Bonds. A guy that had no problem hitting home runs, which is what you say about Davis. But then suddenly, he hits home runs at around twice is career rate? Bonds' increase wasn't as sudden, but he was also much older.

Like I said, the same thing happened to Bautista. Toronto kept him in the majors, gave him a position and playing time every day and he started hitting home runs, and has continued to do so. People thought after the 54 year, he'd go back to being a scrub and then he led the league again. If Davis hits 60+ this year (very possible), and next year goes back and hits ~35, people are going to wonder. You can't argue your way out of that. People don't just suddenly hit home runs twice as often (after getting nearly a full season of starts, ~140 games) and don't get questioned in this day in age.

I feel like I'm talking to a brick wall. You're completely disregarding his minor league numbers and any statistic that indicates that he's always had a large amount of home run power/potential. He's ALWAYS been known as a home run hitter. This year he's shown an improved ability to lay off more pitches outside of the strike zone, take walks, and hit his non-HR balls to all fields for doubles, which has resulted in (gasp) improved offensive numbers. I don't understand how you're failing to realize this. Also, there's still 66 games left, so using his current AB/HR to match up with other players' full seasons is a little unfair. I'm sure Bonds/Ruth/any power hitter ever had a ridiculous AB/HR rate through 90+ games of one of their prime years.

Here's a scouting report from 2009:

At the plate, there is no fooling around with Davis's approach - it's to hit the ball a long way. Standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 235 pounds, Davis is a big boy with light-tower power. Driven by a sharp turn of the hips and by dropping his hands almost to his waist during the pitch, his swing is a short but violent uppercut that yields a lot of big fly balls.

Last season in the bigs, 23 of Davis' 84 hits went for doubles, a great sign that his muscle is very much real. He has the potential to post an impressive isolated power figure, a statistic that measures just extra-base hits.