2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[Majingir]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

But if they go after Price and extend Arrieta that's near half a billion dollars in long-term deals just for 3 SPs (Lester, Price, Arrieta). If you can get Carrasco for 1/10 the cost of Price, you have to try. With the money they save, they could even sign someone like Jason Heyward to replace Soler if they really wanted to. Or someone like Alex Gordon and get a lefty bat and far, far better on defense. That's the difference in $$$ between Carrasco and Price.

It's not just getting Carrasco for a much cheaper contract than Price, it's getting Carrasco,but having to give up player(s) for him,compared to Price. No guarantee you're gonna get a suitable replacement,and for long term, to replace Soler. And not just that,but by taking Carrasco over Price,they'd almost be handing Price to the Cards(unless there's some secret 3rd team in on this), while if Cubs get Price,I doubt Cards will go after anyone like Carrasco.


I'd think a team would see if they get their target free agent first,before pulling trigger on a big deal instead of doing things the other way around. And Price probably isn't signing for awhile, but Cleveland I'm sure probably will move Carrasco fairly soon,as they've been trying to deal him for awhile now,and have multiple suitors.

Given situation Cubs are in, I'd go after a power OF, but keep Soler. Fowler and Denorfia are gone. So just have Soler,Coghlan and some power OF from free agency,and sign Price too.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

It's not just getting Carrasco for a much cheaper contract than Price, it's getting Carrasco,but having to give up player(s) for him,compared to Price. No guarantee you're gonna get a suitable replacement,and for long term, to replace Soler. And not just that,but by taking Carrasco over Price,they'd almost be handing Price to the Cards(unless there's some secret 3rd team in on this), while if Cubs get Price,I doubt Cards will go after anyone like Carrasco.

Not quite...here are the options we are arguing...

Your option: Keep Soler, sign Price, you're out $200MM and have spent $50MM/year on 2 SPs over 30 (Price and Lester) for most of the coming decade. Soler might turn into an impact player. Might not.

My option: Trade Soler (or someone like that) for Carrasco (or someone like that), don't sign Price, and keep $200MM to spend on other things. The Cubs will not have a problem scraping an OF together from Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan, Chris Denorfia, Albert Almora, Matt Szczur... even if they don't sign anyone else. But they'd still have the payroll to sign an impact OF (Heyward, Alex Gordon) with the money they save by not signing Price. Not to mention that adding Heyward/Gordon in place of Soler would be a huge upgrade on the outfield defense, which is a weakness right now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to be disappointed if we sign Price, but I'm sure Theo and Jeddie are exploring many, many different scenarios...not just simply sign David Price and go to Spring Training like most pundits are saying. If I have the option to have Jason Heyward + Carlos Carrasco on my team or David Price + Jorge Soler, I'm not sure which I would pick.

There is no guarantee at all that STL ponies up the dollars for Price. They have zero history of making huge free agent splashes for SPs aside from retaining their own guys like Wainwright. I don't see this "sign Price or let the Cardinals get him" dichotomy that people are tossing out there. Wainwright will be coming back, C-Mart and Wacha are still there. Jaime Garcia is still there. Marco Gonzales is still there. Tyler Lyons is still there. And you know they'll strike oil on 1 or 2 other guys currently in their minor leagues. To say the Cardinals must sign an ace this offseason is a bit not based in reality.

[redsox4evur]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Not quite...here are the options we are arguing...

Your option: Keep Soler, sign Price, you're out $200MM and have spent $50MM/year on 2 SPs over 30 (Price and Lester) for most of the coming decade. Soler might turn into an impact player. Might not.

My option: Trade Soler (or someone like that) for Carrasco (or someone like that), don't sign Price, and keep $200MM to spend on other things. The Cubs will not have a problem scraping an OF together from Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan, Chris Denorfia, Albert Almora, Matt Szczur... even if they don't sign anyone else. But they'd still have the payroll to sign an impact OF (Heyward, Alex Gordon) with the money they save by not signing Price. Not to mention that adding Heyward/Gordon in place of Soler would be a huge upgrade on the outfield defense, which is a weakness right now.

So you don't want to spend $200MM on a pitcher but you will do it on OF? If you believe the reports so far he is going to something around 10 years $200MM. Just food for thought.

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

I would take Heyward + Carrasco.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

So you don't want to spend $200MM on a pitcher but you will do it on OF? If you believe the reports so far he is going to something around 10 years $200MM. Just food for thought.

That's my whole point...

Not signing Price would give the Cubs the flexibility to sign someone like Heyward. Heyward would be a great fit as a lefty bat with wheels and a dynamite glove in RF. The Cubs really could use help in all 3 of those areas. Trading for Carrasco instead of signing Price opens up the possibility.

But, hell no, J-Hey's not getting 10 years $200MM. LOL. I'd say 7 years tops and probably $135-ish on the millions. Look at some deals for other comparable OFs (Hunter Pence, Matt Holliday, Adam Jones, Matt Kemp, Jose Bautista) and none of them got over $20MM AAV. The only ones over $20MM AAV are the no doubt superstars (Trout, Stanton) or the ones that were obvious mistakes the day the contracts were signed/big market teams being idiots (Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Jayson Werth). I doubt you see a team repeat that with breaking the $20MM barrier on a non-Mike Trout/Giancarlo Stanton outfielder.

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Age of players you mentioned as comps on Opening Day of the 1st year of the contract:

• Heyward: 26
  <s></s>
• <s>Pence: 31</s>
• <s>Holliday: 30</s>
• Jones: 27
• Kemp: 27
• <s>Bautista: 32</s>

Jones was 6 years/$85.5M= $14.25 AAV



Problem with Jones comp is that at that point in his career he had never been as good as Heyward, at least according to WAR, topping at 3 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR. Heyward just completed a 6.0 fWAR season and has another 6.5 fWAR season. And has 3 6+ WAR seasons according to Baseball Reference.


Kemp was 8 years/$160M= $20 AAV and this was signed 3 years ago.


I definitely could see Heyward getting that same contract Kemp got.

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

And then you might have at least one silly GM paying for a mirage, thinking of what Heyward "could be" instead of what he is.

[redsrule]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

So you don't want to spend $200MM on a pitcher but you will do it on OF? If you believe the reports so far he is going to something around 10 years $200MM. Just food for thought.

I'm not a Cubs fan but I would much rather have Heyward + Carrasco than Price + Soler. Think it'll take more then Soler to get him though.

Sent from my SPH-L720T using Tapatalk

[AC]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

I think Heyward gets near $200m, and I think it ends up as a very fair deal if not a steal.

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Giants and Dodgers have expressed interest in Shelby Miller.

[fugazi]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Darren O'Day to the Cubs please and thank you.
Pay him.

O'Day + Heyward + SP via trade...could do A LOT worse.

[The Kid 24]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Darren O'Day to the Cubs please and thank you.
Pay him.

O'Day + Heyward + SP via trade...could do A LOT worse.

He's looking for a 4 year deal in the range of $28-36 mil... That's A LOT of money for a 8th inning guy.

[Knight165]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Can't believe the Mets, Rangers and O's all got him from the waiver wire.

M.K.
Knight165

[SPTO]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Josh Byrnes has been added to the Jays GM search with Tony LaCava and Ross Atkins.

[fugazi]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Strop, O'Day, Rondon.

That's a top three back end, and the rest of the pen has promise.

The pen cost the team a number of games last year, especially in the first half.

The lack of depth in the pen became apparent in the post-season. This would go a long way to fixing that.