Boston Red Sox - 2006

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

After looking at Gonzalez's numbers, I'd say just stick with Cora. Gonzalez sufferred a huge drop in his slugging percentage last year which could mean he had a bad year or...(insert wild steroids accusation here). Gonzalez is a better defender, but not so much so that it's worth spending a couple million on him. I'll be rooting for Pedroia though and if Baltimore decides they want to do the Manny for Tejada swap in the end, then I'd say take it and go with Marte in left (if he proves he can handle it in ST).

[Stu]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

Looks like Theo's back...

Epstein and Red Sox management issued a joint statement Thursday saying he will return to the organization full-time, but they did not specify his capacity except to say it will be in baseball operations. His return had been rumored almost since the day he slipped out of Fenway Park wearing a borrowed gorilla costume to avoid the media.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/19/former_gm_theo_epstein_to_rejoin_red_sox/

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

I'm curious if they'll officially make him the GM or if they will just give him some other title that essentially gives him authority over the current "co-gms." Either way, he'll probably be running the ship. I'm more curious what his authority will be in relation to Lucchino. Henry stated that Lucchino's role will not be changed at all but is it possibly whatever position Epstein assumes will actually be higher than Lucchino's? I doubt it, but it's fun to speculate.

And I suppose it's worth noting that the latest rumor has the Red Sox interested in Griffey. Griffey is still a good player but he seems more like a reaction to the Damon loss than a true replacement since he's a big name but doesn't really fit what the Red Sox need in their lineup. Griffey is unlikely to make it through an entire season as the everyday center fielder. If they could find a fourth outfielder to play center for maybe 60 games or so out of the regular season and play Ortiz at first on those days and DH Griffey, then I think it would make more sense. It still wouldn't answer the question of "who lead's off?"

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

According to the Globe, I believe, it looks like Theo is going after Crisp once again. I'd much rather have Crisp than Griffey as Crisp gives us a young, established center fielder who can also lead-off but has the bat of someone who could hit lower in the order (he's a younger Damon but isn't as polished a fielder or baserunner at this point). Rumor has it that any deal for Crisp would cost the Red Sox Marte. I am fine with that. Crisp isn't some old guy, he's pretty young and trading a guy who has yet to prove he's as good as he can be hitting at the lower levels for an estalbished Major-League player is a good deal. Plus, when have the Braves ever traded away a highly-touted prospect that turned out great? I honestly cannot think of one. A deal would also likely cost the Red Sox a starting pitcher, probably Arroyo. As long as Marte is the only prospect they are giving up, I'm fine with that.

[Stu]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

According to the Globe, I believe, it looks like Theo is going after Crisp once again. I'd much rather have Crisp than Griffey as Crisp gives us a young, established center fielder who can also lead-off but has the bat of someone who could hit lower in the order (he's a younger Damon but isn't as polished a fielder or baserunner at this point). Rumor has it that any deal for Crisp would cost the Red Sox Marte. I am fine with that. Crisp isn't some old guy, he's pretty young and trading a guy who has yet to prove he's as good as he can be hitting at the lower levels for an estalbished Major-League player is a good deal. Plus, when have the Braves ever traded away a highly-touted prospect that turned out great? I honestly cannot think of one. A deal would also likely cost the Red Sox a starting pitcher, probably Arroyo. As long as Marte is the only prospect they are giving up, I'm fine with that.

I would be fine with dealing Marte to get Crisp as well. He's a decent CF with good OBP, is only 26 years old and I think has 3-4 years before he's eligible for FA. I think the sticking point will be the Red Sox wanting to send Clement while the Indians will want Arroyo.

[CWood2]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

Plus, when have the Braves ever traded away a highly-touted prospect that turned out great? I honestly cannot think of one. A deal would also likely cost the Red Sox a starting pitcher, probably Arroyo. As long as Marte is the only prospect they are giving up, I'm fine with that.

Jason Schmidt, Jermaine Dye were very young when traded. Plus, the book's still out on Dan Meyer and Jose Capellan.

Anyway, I think Marte and a pitcher is too much for Crisp. If it's Mota, I'd probably reconsider, but Clement/Arroyo could have even better value at the deadline when injuries and pennant races will up their value. Having Ellsbury, who has a similiar game to Crisp (although unproven) makes me even less willing to give up a potential cornerstone at third, especially since we'll need right handed power sooner or later. It's not a bad deal, and Crisp is a young, exciting player, but I'd only really do it if we've exhausted all our options in center. Marte should be considered untradeable IMO...and we could probably get Reed or Michaels without him.

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

I would say Schmidt and Dye didn't pan out as expected. Schmidt had two really good years in 2003 and 2004 but other than that he hasn't been great. And Dye has never been that great either (just three seasons with an OPS over .800), though that is a little unfair to him considering he had that major injury a few years ago with Oakland. My gut feeling is that Marte is going to be another Adrian Beltre. I wouldn't mind trading him for Crisp and either Arroyo or Clement (or Wells, but I don't think he wants to pitch for Cleveland) with him for the simple fact that the Red Sox need to get rid of some starters anyways. And Crisp is only 26 (won't be 27 until November) so he's almost a prospect in himself. I don't even consider Reed or Michaels worth exploring, I'd almost rather see what Stern can do given that scenario.

I know everyone in Boston is excited about the sudden surplus of A prospects in the Red Sox system, but the likelihood even 3 of them turn out as good as projected is very slim. I remember reading an article not too long ago that was written a few years ago about the Red Sox farm system and their top 10 "can't miss" prospects. Of them, only Casey Fossum is even average at the major league level (I believe Brian Rose was the top prospect). Personally, the only guy I consider even close to untouchable is Lester, because he's a tall lefty with a power arm which isn't easy to find. And if someone offered a proven ace/slugger (depending on position) for him I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

[CWood2]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

I would say Schmidt and Dye didn't pan out as expected. Schmidt had two really good years in 2003 and 2004 but other than that he hasn't been great. And Dye has never been that great either (just three seasons with an OPS over .800), though that is a little unfair to him considering he had that major injury a few years ago with Oakland. My gut feeling is that Marte is going to be another Adrian Beltre. I wouldn't mind trading him for Crisp and either Arroyo or Clement (or Wells, but I don't think he wants to pitch for Cleveland) with him for the simple fact that the Red Sox need to get rid of some starters anyways. And Crisp is only 26 (won't be 27 until November) so he's almost a prospect in himself. I don't even consider Reed or Michaels worth exploring, I'd almost rather see what Stern can do given that scenario.

I know everyone in Boston is excited about the sudden surplus of A prospects in the Red Sox system, but the likelihood even 3 of them turn out as good as projected is very slim. I remember reading an article not too long ago that was written a few years ago about the Red Sox farm system and their top 10 "can't miss" prospects. Of them, only Casey Fossum is even average at the major league level (I believe Brian Rose was the top prospect). Personally, the only guy I consider even close to untouchable is Lester, because he's a tall lefty with a power arm which isn't easy to find. And if someone offered a proven ace/slugger (depending on position) for him I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

Good post. Two things I disagree with though...

First, we don't need to get rid of starters due to a surplus, especially when packaged with our top prospect. We'll trade one to fill a need in center, but if there's any position you need to depend on, it's pitchers of all trades. If Hanley, Anibal, and some hard throwers got us Beckett, I don't think it should take another top prospect and a proven pitcher to get Crisp.

Second, the reason our top 10 prospects didn't pan out was because the quality of our farm system was close to the league worst just 3 years ago. The last "can't miss" guys we had before recently were Nomar and Trot, and that was a while ago. Personally, I believe the Braves have the best scouts and the most concrete system intact for acquiring young talent and maturing them through their own ranks. Because of that, and because they know there are very few guys you can build on (Andruw, Chipper, Franceour, etc.), they can give up Bruce Chen, Adam Wainwright, Bubba Nelson, Jung Bong, Ryan Klesko, and the people we brought up earlier (all top prospects at one time) and look brilliant. However, I don't think Marte will join that list...he was blocked by a clause in Chipper's contract and even after receding a bit with a bad pro debut, it's impossible to find top young corner infielders with pop. That's why I wouldn't trade him, but it's not like we're getting Julio Lugo back in return.

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

Looks like a deal is in place, but it still hasn't gone through so I wouldn't hold my breath:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2301457

Signing Gonzalez doesn't excite me as I feel he is the same player as Cora, though probably a bit better defensively. It basically just guarantees that we'll be trading Graffanino at some point. And if the Crisp trade goes through then we're pretty much set at the major league level with the only thing really needed being a left-handed reliever. That tells me that we're likely to only seek prospects with a guy like Wells.

[Stu]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

Looks like a deal is in place, but it still hasn't gone through so I wouldn't hold my breath:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2301457

Signing Gonzalez doesn't excite me as I feel he is the same player as Cora, though probably a bit better defensively. It basically just guarantees that we'll be trading Graffanino at some point. And if the Crisp trade goes through then we're pretty much set at the major league level with the only thing really needed being a left-handed reliever. That tells me that we're likely to only seek prospects with a guy like Wells.

Even if we get Crisp, I still think we need a solid right handed 4th OF. Nixon has been injury prone and doesn't hit lefties well.

[Stu]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

Good post. Two things I disagree with though...

First, we don't need to get rid of starters due to a surplus, especially when packaged with our top prospect.

In theory I agree with you but realistically, we don't have enough spots for all the pitchers we have now. Our staff includes:

Schilling
Beckett
Clement
Wells
Wakefield
Papelbon
Arroyo

Mota
Seanez
Timlin
Foulke
Dinardo
Tavarez
Vermilyea (Rule 5)

along with guys like Hansen, Delcarmen and Van Buren who could get callups. I like having excess pitching, but we simply don't have enough space on our active or 40 man roster to keep all these guys.

[CWood2]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

In theory I agree with you but realistically, we don't have enough spots for all the pitchers we have now.

It is a bit theoretical, but my main point is that with the deals that Burnett, Millwood, Washburn (???) and soon Weaver got this offseason, Clement and Arroyo should not be overlooked as valuable commodities even if we have needs. You're right about the bullpen, we've got tons of power arms and moving Mota is something I advocated earlier. If he goes with Marte for Crisp and prospects, at least we can wait for a fair deal to unload one or more of Clement/Arroyo/Wells...and that is an advantage of the deal I hadn't thought of.

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

That is true (about the 4th outfielder). I like Stern, but not as a fourth outfielder. And we definitly need a right-handed outfielder to either start for Trot against lefties or just for some depth on the bench. I would think one of our starters could get us at least that much (I'm not sure who they would target though). It would be nice if they could "replace," to some extent, Marte with one of their other starters in a trade for prospects.

[Stu]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

Assuming this reported trade goes through, the Red Sox will be looking at this lineup for 2006:

Lineup:
Crisp - CF
Loretta - 2B
Ortiz - DH
Ramirez - LF
Nixon - RF
Varitek - C
Lowell - 3B
Youkilis - 1B
Cora/Pedroia - SS (maybe gonzalez)

Bench:
Stern
Flaherty/Bard
Snow
Graffanino

On paper this lineup doesn't have the same explosiveness as last years but I think it's significantly better from top to bottom. We took a downgrade at CF and SS but will probably take a slight upgrade at 3B and 2B and a big upgrade at 1B. Our biggest problem from August on last year was that if Manny and Ortiz didn't provide the offense, we didn't score. I think this lineup has the potential to score over 900 runs again which I think would make them one of the only teams in history to do so 4 years in a row.

As far as defense, we've improved at every position in the infield, although Youkilis is still an unknown. The OF defense could be a problem with Manny, a declining Nixon and Crisp who has only played 10 games in CF. It's worth noting however that Damon only had 1 year as a full time CF before he came here.

[Misfit]

Re: Boston Red Sox - 2006

I think Crisp as the potential to match Damon's numbers of a year ago and possibly excede them, except for perhaps the OBP part. I bet the coaching staff will start trying to get him ready for the lead-off position during spring training because right now he isn't a true lead-off hitter but he's the best on the roster. Lowell may not hit as well as Mueller did average-wise, but he should make up for it with a little more pop. Mueller had almost zero extra base power last year and it will be nice to have a double/homer threat towards the bottom of the order. Nixon is a questionmark as he never got it going last year and hopefully he can have a healthy season and get his slugging numbers up. Whoever plays shortstop will undoubtedly play better defense than Renteria did a year ago, though they probably will hit around .250. We still need a right-handed outfielder, does Graffanino have any experience out there?